Nijisanji's Fall

[Anonymous No.]

Everyone's talking about the Selen/Dokibird situation being the end of Nijisanji, but from the looks of it Nijisanji died in Oct 22 and have only been continuing on momentum.

2022 Full Year: https://i.warosu.org/data/vt/img/0416/99/1674673975023229.png
2023 Full Year: https://i.warosu.org/data/vt/img/0657/65/1704126725790108.png
Jan 2024: https://i.warosu.org/data/vt/img/0681/83/1707060077604833.png

In 2022 Nijisanji was competitive with Hololive. They still lost, but they were competitive. For 2023 they fell down hard. Starting in 2024 their best isn't even breaking 3k without the graduation buff. This paints the picture of a continuous and hard decline over time, which no single incident can cause. So what happened, why did Nijisanji die, and why does it continue to die even harder? It's not the industry, we see more indies becoming massive all the time, each Hololive generation performs just fine, older Hololive talent maintains the same numbers. So what happened?

[Anonymous No.]

>>69264504
So about 2 months after Advent's debuts. Interesting.

[Anonymous No.]

>>69264811
2022, not 2023

[Anonymous No.]

>>69264504
Oversaturation in their own branch I think

[Anonymous No.]

>>69264504
Males happens, killing the girls momentum
Then males fucked it up and started losing a lot of chinese fujo viewership
2023 was packed with drama for them, every prospects about 3D and concerts out the window
While Hololive had an amazing fest, HoloEN first concert and all the 3D debuts and a new gen debuting
That's your timeline

[Anonymous No.]

>>69264504
it's because niji is quantity > quality
they don't let their talents simmer for a bit and drown their growth with the next wave. they are basically committing cannibalism with their own talents

[Anonymous No.]

>>69264504
>in 2022 Niji was competitive with Holo

isn't 2022 a famously terrible year for holoEN? Omega pulled all their support away from HoloEN to try to push StarsEN until he got sacked

[Anonymous No.]

>>69264900
I can believe that. I personally found Iluna to be the breaking point for me, when I no longer even bothered to check out new debuts.

[Anonymous No.]

>>69264504
NijiEN came out strong with its first 2 gens.
Their early males put them on the map, targeting an untapped niche
Then they categorically failed to capitalize on that success wave after wave. Interest waned, systematic struggles to put together basic events or promotional content undermined growth and public drama, largely due to poor management, shattered faith in past successes and in the brand image itself.

Part of the issue is definitely poor business management failing to capitalize on talent-driven success in their early period, but a deeper issue is that Nijisanji's model relies heavily on dredging the talent pool and using debuts as a central promotional tool. This worked in Japan, where the talent pool is inundated with failed/retired idols, seiyuu, actresses and so on. But the talent pool in EN was much narrower and largely consisted of twitch content creators and career streamers rather than talent or performance-oriented content.
Nobody is putting themselves out to see fulltime twitch streamer #3532 redebut with an anime girl's face. Nijisanji's model relied too heavily on their being a readymade pool of undervalued performance talent desperate for a shot at fame and weren't prepared or willing to invest in developing enough of a skillset in their new waves to help them stand out among stiff competition from within the market, and outside competition from a saturated independent content creator market.

And of course, they ran aground the classic blunder that japanese entertainment has been bungling into for decades: female otaku are a notoriously fickle market, difficult to market towards and have a strong tendency to focus on a single popular thing instead of spreading out among many available options. They were unable to repeat the success of their first male wave, which undermined their growth model that emphasized co-ed streaming and target demographics.

[Anonymous No.]

>>69265088
Yes it was, that and it was very uncertain if we'd get any 3D debuts or actual fest participations
Then 2023 happened, Council's new outfits, IRyS redesign, 3D debuts, Connect the world, the fest, advent etc etc
rip in piss omegatranny you won't be missed

[Anonymous No.]

>>69264504
The kpoop kids abandoned them

[Anonymous No.]

>>69264918
I'm still so fucking pissed those homos debuted in Niji. My sister was all in on council and we used to talk about their streams until those motherfuckers showed up and then she jumped ship to Nijisanji and never looked back. Well fuck you sis, you abandoned me but I got the last laugh.

[Anonymous No.]

>>69265088
Hololive EN's average CCV upper and lower bounds are mostly the same across the three time periods I selected. Aside from Jan, which saw an upswing on the upper bound by a few thousand, and ignoring Gura.

So their numbers have mostly been static, they just add more members that reach their threshold while Nijisanji is actively losing eyes over time.

I figure the things you mentioned probably stunted their growth instead of actively hurt them.

[Anonymous No.]

>>69265088
2022 was awful. Fauna was the only reliable US primetime HoloEN for months.

[Anonymous No.]

>>69265335
That's right, never let the fags forget that hey didn't do as good as they expected

[Anonymous No.]

>>69265153
>>69264900
Right, but that should hurt new waves, not damage the old waves with established fanbases.

[Anonymous No.]

>>69264504
>So what happened, why did Nijisanji die, and why does it continue to die even harder?
The initial Nijisanji model was to have cheap talents with cheap 2D avatars making streams. That worked for 2018 and 2019, it was still effective in 2020 and 2021. By 2022 their tech is very outdated, their background support (managers and all) is too small and too inexperienced (from what I know the company suffers from a high turnover rate).
Riku's model to make things as cheaply as possible is simply not viable anymore and Nijisanji is slowly being nibbled on by competition that has MUCH better 2D and 3D models and vastly superior logistic system behind them (even indies).
Nijisanji should have reinvested more in their company.

[Anonymous No.]

>>69265201
A real good read on the situation.

[Anonymous No.]

yeah that's how things usually go. people like to use wrestling comparisons a lot in the vtubing sphere so think of niji as the WCW. talk to any wrestling fan and they can go on for days about the sheer ineptitude on display in 2000 and early 2001 before they folded, but they were on the downward spiral for years before that. that's just when the wheels finally fell off. sayu was the fingerpoke of doom, doki is david arquette winning the championship.

[Anonymous No.]

>>69265429
The old waves were already in shamble anon, what do you think happened to the girl's viewership in general once the homos started and they'd join everything they'd do
Not to mention the infamous hotel cucking
Luxiem and such exploded in popularity because of women whole the girls ended up slowly losing everything
Now even the Homos are in the shitter because they can't help but get into retarded drama and surprise surprise who would have thought hordes of mentally ill chinks women would do for a terrible audience

[Anonymous No.]

>>69264504
Daily reminder that the stock price at Zaion's time was at a certain point 5,290 yen
I had made a meme at the time because this was after it had fallen a lot from her One Girl's Story, and it ended up documenting that

[Anonymous No.]

>>69265575
revisionism

[Anonymous No.]

>>69264504
Reminder that a severely autistic Indonesian woman with a lot of health issue mogs the shit out of NijiEN on a daily basis lmfao
>>69265767
Cope sister, your disgusting faggot killed any prospect for females talent to gather an healthy fanbase, you fucking nignog can't help but to eat each others to the point they have to tell you to stop sending fucking death threats
You are everything wrong with vtubing and i can't wait for all of them to go fucking under

[Anonymous No.]

The fags yabbed too hard by plowing the female organs pussy too much so the fujoshitters kpoop liking tards bounced for the most part

[Anonymous No.]

>>69264504
TOTAL NIJI DEATH
>TOTAL NIJI DEATH
TOTAL NIJI DEATH
>TOTAL NIJI DEATH
TOTAL NIJI DEATH
>TOTAL NIJI DEATH

[Anonymous No.]

>>69264504
>There was time when Aster broke 400
That's not possible

[Anonymous No.]

>>69264900
this
they ACCELERATED too hard
too many people eating the same pie led to internal drama and talents working against each other instead of with each other and here we are

[Anonymous No.]

>>69264504
Nijis are basically no different than Twitch vtubers but with a ton of restrictions and a big company leeching from any money you give to them.

[Anonymous No.]

>>69264504
Vox made a your mom joke and they lost the mandate of heaven.

Seriously though while they were competitive in numbers with HoloEN for a while in 2022 they never really secured much of a western audience. The vast majority of their viewers from the Luxiem boom were from China and SEA. That audience eventually got bored and moved onto the next FOTM, or got filtered by near constant stream of yabs. That your mom joke being one of the first, apparently very offensive in China.

They were at their peak when they debuted Iluna, but they kind of bombed and didn't really capture a new audience. Then they just kept churning out more and more waves to an increasingly disinterested and diluted audience. See image, the debut numbers for each wave. They also had a seemingly unending chain of drama and yabs of various sizes throughout 2023 filtering their current audience while failing to bring in many new people.

In contrast while 2022 was pretty bad for EN with falling viewerships and other various issues, it wasn't bad for all of them. Gura, Ina, and IRyS pretty much maintained their numbers on average, while Mumei had a very strong year in 2022. Fauna's numbers actually went up throughout that period and beyond, she went from one of the weakest HoloEN members to having one of the highest average ccv out of all EN vtubers.
The most important thing is the solution to HoloENs problems was they just needed more members. So with them overhauling management at the end of 2022 and debuting Advent they've mostly fixed their issues and are riding high

[Anonymous No.]

>>69264504
There is no one single reason. It's a huge list of small reasons, personally I would say the biggest reasons are:
>Males and leech arc
Luxiem did really really good in the beginning, completely outperforming Holo. Hard to say if management decided to try and get more viewers for the girls aswell, or the girls tried to leech. This initially led to higher numbers, but meant that a lot of unicorns who wanted CGDCT started to nope out.
>Males and cuck arcs
Vox and Reimu thing was way bigger than most people realize. Not only did the chink fujos spam Reimu, but many of them also left here. They are like unicorns where a single mistake either makes them 100% more loyal or 100% less loyal.
Enna also did her version with Kyo, which was even worse. This also made some people lose their mind. All just bad PR, that made even those who are slightly unicorn leave
>Oversaturation (This of the biggest reasons)
With the amount of livers now, it is harder and harder to really get people to be hyped up for new gens. Hell, both Krisis and TTT had barely any clips at all after debut.
Without the hype and clips, this meant that newer gens had a much harder time getting an audience, and would usually get it through cannibalizing the older gens.
>Gradual distrust, drama and graduations.
With the Zaion and Yugo thing, people just started being more skeptical of everything NijiEN said. Made even worse by Luxiem doing the whole "Covid, huh?" thing. This also made some people leave, as they no longer respected NijiEN or drama happening.
Same thing with the graduations. Both Nina and Mysta were really important for the branch and when they left, some people felt like this was a sign that the 'golden era' was done.
>Lack of events
Almost no niji have a 3d model, making for a lot fewer big events. In turn less people to discover them through promotions, clips and so on.
>Niji being slightly political
This ended up in quite a few clips and questions regarding sexuality and so on, which is a major turn off for a lot of viewers to talk about. Also a lot of gender discussions. The reddit would often have some 'What sexuality and gender identity is everyone from Nijisanji? Lets discuss!' things, which really is a very specific audience to try and capture

[Anonymous No.]

>>69267616
>Vox and Reimu thing was way bigger than most people realize
Do you remember for what period this was occurring?

[Anonymous No.]

>>69267710
Mid 2022. June or july was when it was heated.
Matches when reimu in the chart started to lose momentum

[Anonymous No.]

>>69267616
>they no longer respected NijiEN or drama happening
Good thing they took care of that.

[Anonymous No.]

>>69267616
>This ended up in quite a few clips and questions regarding sexuality and so on, which is a major turn off for a lot of viewers to talk about. Also a lot of gender discussions. The reddit would often have some 'What sexuality and gender identity is everyone from Nijisanji? Lets discuss!' things, which really is a very specific audience to try and capture

This has a massive energy of Jap marketing realising that vast majority of their tranny/fujo audience is into that shit and wanting to capitalize on it, but since
1)they are a corpo
2)they are from Japan
They went with the most straightorward and blunt way about it imaginable

[Anonymous No.]

In my point of view Nijisanji has BPD

[Anonymous No.]

>>69265335
You should fuck your sister.

[Anonymous No.]

>>69267616
So the clique itself contributed the most to the downfall of NijiEN, kek

[Anonymous No.]

when did secret gc happen?

[Anonymous No.]

>>69265335
Plap her, that should bring her back

[Anonymous No.]

>>69265432
I don't think it's just the models and tech, it's the fact that NijiEN very rarely tried to do anything ambitious (or more charitably were never supported so that they could). Selen took a lot of initiative but she eventually got pushback. The major collabs never got as much polish as the ones held by the main branch. Many major collabs were just typical collabs with more people - a game or chat stream.
Fuck, I remember enjoying Millie's zatsudans because at least she tried to do a bunch of stupid bits. She realized she didn't have to try anymore.

[Anonymous No.]

>>69265201
>This worked in Japan, where the talent pool is inundated with failed/retired idols, seiyuu, actresses and so on. But the talent pool in EN was much narrower and largely consisted of twitch content creators and career streamers
spot on
from all those "why nijien failed" threads you put up the best answer i ever seen

[Anonymous No.]

>>69268753
https://vrabi.net/video/6RlNpEmPVG4

[Anonymous No.]

>>69267616
>Niji being slightly political
Politics really is cancer, I nope the fuck out whenever I hear anything remotely political. There's a reason why Holo girls never bring up politics, shit is poison to numbers.

[Anonymous No.]

>>69264504
It was bound to happen

[Anonymous No.]

>>69264504
ACCELERATE
INTO THE GROUND

[Anonymous No.]

>>69265201
>>69269035
That's part of it, but let's be honest NijiJP new debuts aren't exactly going nova either. Their top stars are pretty much all 2018/2019 debuts. There's only two nijis who debuted post 2020 who could be said to achieve top tier success, and that's Lauren and Salome. My read is that they only got away with shotgunning out talents back in 2018/2019 because the field was less saturated and they were the only big name in town after the collapse of gamebu and Kizuna Ai, and them attempting to do the same thing just doesn't work in the modern market.