/vt/ - Virtual Youtubers

https://manifold.markets/

>What is a prediction market?
Prediction markets are open markets where probabilities of outcomes of events can be estimated using financial incentives, they are a mechanisms for collecting vast amounts of information held by individuals and synthesizing it into a useful data point.
Manifold markets guide: https://docs.manifold.markets/$how-to
Wikipedia article about prediction markets: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market
>How do I trade, in simple terms?
Buy YES shares if you think that the event in question will happen, buy NO shares if you think it won't happen.
The current price of a YES share corresponds to the market’s current estimate of the event’s probability.
>Are you telling me to gamble using real money?
No, manifold.markets uses fake internet money. You can find prediction markets that use real money, but I just want to have fun without serious stakes. Plus this is the only platform where I found any markets about vtubers at all.
>What do I need to sign up?
Only a google account. If you are turboautistic when it comes to privacy - just make a new throwaway Google account.
>Who decides whether an event came true or no?
Whoever created this specific market. And yes, there is a lot of room for market manipulation, trolling and dishonesty, unfortunately.
>Why should I care about prediction markets?
It's fun, and it can potentially make you a better forecaster with practice. In the distant future prediction markets will likely be used for things like policy making.

Here are some vtuber-related markets:
Will a vtuber from Hololive Production be in the winning team of Apex Legends tournament VSaikyo 5?
https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-a-vtuber-from-hololive-product

Will Usada Pekora have more days in March in which she had the highest peak concurrent viewers of the day than any other vtuber YouTube channel?
https://manifold.markets/VtuberNumbers/will-usada-pekora-have-more-days-in

Will at least one member of Nijisanji EN graduate before the end of 2023?
https://manifold.markets/LavrovAndrey/will-at-least-one-member-of-nijisan

Feel free to make your own market and post it in this thread. Make sure that both the question AND the necessary conditions for it to be resolved are stated as unambiguously as possible.