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/sci/ - Science & Math


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11528465 No.11528465 [Reply] [Original]

What do you think is the likelihood of a technological singularity happening in the next three years?

I'm sure it sounds crazy but Vernor Vinge (professor of mathematics and computer science at the University of California, San Diego) claimed just that in his 1993 essay The Coming Technological Singularity:

https://edoras.sdsu.edu/~vinge/misc/singularity.html

The more I think of it, the more it seems like a possible scenario. It's obvious that technological progress is an exponential process and history shows that humans are incapable of comprehending exponential growth. Ask most people if they would prefer a million dollars right now or a penny doubled every day for a month and most people would choose the former. The initially exponential logistic curve of COVID-19 cases took many countries and governments by surprise. And even as recently in 2015, most people were saying that computers wouldn't defeat human experts at Go for at least another decade because of the historically slow rate of progress in this field. Now new versions of AlphaGo are beating the original AlphaGo 100 games to 0.

>> No.11528471
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11528471

>> No.11528490

If singularity ever then singularity now.

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Condition code 777

>> No.11528507

I'd say we're within a few decades. What is commercially available is not a good representation of the researchers on the bleeding edge of a field are doing. Not to mention that classes in machine learning are becoming very accessible. If a million people tinker with machine learning, odds are at least one of them will be a turboautist savant who does something ridiculous with it.
>but machine learning isn't actual AI it's just calculus!!
No shit, Sherlock. It's still a process that allows a computer to get better at something with practice. That's all that is really needed for a machine to eventually exceed the capacity of what it was coded for. Right now it seems pretty limited, but with another 10 years of development on the concept and people tinkering with it, it's going to start going off.

>> No.11528508

Isn't the singularity kind of a frame of reference thing? I can't imagine hunter-gatherer people could have even imagined a smartphone, a jet, or a satellite in their wildest dreams.

>> No.11528525

>>11528508
They can imagine plants and animals with human speech. What's crazier than that? Everything else is just how stuff moves between spaces.

>> No.11528528

>>11528471
this

>> No.11528532

>>11528528
What a strange singularity where no averages to yes for any given observer and observation.

>> No.11528631

>>11528465
>However, there was much debate about the raw hardware power that is present in organic brains. A minority felt that the largest 1992 computers were within three orders of magnitude of the power of the human brain. The majority of the participants agreed with Moravec's estimate [16] that we are ten to forty years away from hardware parity. And yet there was another minority who pointed to [6] [20], and conjectured that the computational competence of single neurons may be far higher than generally believed. If so, our present computer hardware might be as much as _ten_ orders of magnitude short of the equipment we carry around in our heads. If this is true (or for that matter, if the Penrose or Searle critique is valid), we might never see a Singularity. Instead, in the early '00s we would find our hardware performance curves begin to level off -- this caused by our inability to automate the complexity of the design work necessary to support the hardware trend curves. We'd end up with some _very_ powerful hardware, but without the ability to push it further. Commercial digital signal processing might be awesome, giving an analog appearance even to digital operations, but nothing would ever "wake up" and there would never be the intellectual runaway which is the essence of the Singularity.
https://www.quantamagazine.org/neural-dendrites-reveal-their-computational-power-20200114/
>The latest in a long line of evidence comes from scientists’ discovery of a new type of electrical signal in the upper layers of the human cortex. Laboratory and modeling studies have already shown that tiny compartments in the dendritic arms of cortical neurons can each perform complicated operations in mathematical logic. But now it seems that individual dendritic compartments can also perform a particular computation — “exclusive OR” — that mathematical theorists had previously categorized as unsolvable by single-neuron systems.

>> No.11530312

A penny doubled everyday for a month is still less than a million dollars idiot

>> No.11530330

>>11528465
>super AI in 3 years

Nigger what are you talking about the shooty men in my videogames can't even negotiate a doorway properly

>> No.11530734

>>11528465
>What do you think is the likelihood of a technological singularity happening in the next three years?
1-0.99999....

>> No.11530794

>>11528465
So what if these "superhuman" otherthings discover that we are the absolute global maximum in the space of performance/resilience/intelligence that is possible? A symbiosis of sorts.

>> No.11530803

>>11530312
$10,737,418.24

>> No.11530808

>>11528465
It's almost as if futurists have been consistently wrong for decades, and anyone who takes their predictions seriously is utterly retarded.

>> No.11530811

>>11530803
Disregard this

>> No.11530836

>>11528465
1993+30=2033 dumass nigga

>> No.11530838

>>11528465
2 more weeks

>> No.11530848

>>11528465
>1993
is this a larp OP? u cant be serious

>> No.11530856

>>11528465
Today you learned that coronavirus is a post Singularity reduce the human population operation.

>> No.11530857
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11530857

>>11528465
>technological singularity
>>>/x/

>> No.11530874

>>11530836
>American education

>> No.11530909

>>11528507
Wdym Tesla has L5 and Gpt-2 is OP as shit. We’re already almost there