/sci/ - Science & Math

[Anonymous No.10603021]

ready to die?

[Anonymous No.10603025]

[Anonymous No.10603029]

[Anonymous No.10603030]

>>10603021
1 in 100

the fact that we detected it so early means we can easily divert it. that's a simple matter of giving it a tiny perturbation, which one could accomplish by sending a satellite to orbit it.

the real fear is a comet or interstellar object coming out of nowhere with <24 hr notice. imagine if oumuamua were on a collision course. we'd be dead before the astronomers could even get off hold on the "us government hotline" support line

[Anonymous No.10603040]

>>10603030
'easily'

this has never been done or even attempted

[Anonymous No.10603045]

>>10603021
you need to speed it up by a few days so it lands on 4/13

[Anonymous No.10603047]

This is part of the NASA's larp game right-o?

[Anonymous No.10603051]

>>10603045
Why that date?

[Anonymous No.10603055]

>>10603021
That asteroid doesn't exist, it is a simulated event. There is no record or orbital parameters for an object called 2019 PDC

>>10603047
Yes

[Anonymous No.10603111]

>>10603021
An asteroid destroying life on earth is just too good to be true. true

[Anonymous No.10603119]

>>10603040
the plans exist though. at least in a very preliminary/theoretical construction.
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20150010968.pdf

[Anonymous No.10603123]

>>10603119
But they don't have any spacecraft that could do this. They don't yet even have any launch vehicle that cold deliver the delta-v needed to reach an asteroid moving at 17km/s in time.

[Anonymous No.10603126]

>>10603047
>This is part of the NASA's larp game right-o?
https://science.slashdot.org/story/19/04/27/0125259/scientists-live-tweet-chilling-faux-asteroid-impact-scare

[Anonymous No.10603127]

>>10603045
what happens on 4/13?

[Anonymous No.10603134]

>>10603123
i'm sure if we knew about a threat in 8 years' time, as OP mentions, either SLS or a remake of a Saturn-V could be cobbled up in time to make the afformentioned "gravity tractor" idea work. humans are lazy but when we have a deadline to meet, we're quite effective (thanks JFK)

[Anonymous No.10603149]

>>10603134
cf. James Webb Space Telescope

[Anonymous No.10603152]

>>10603021
>300 meter asteroid

Distance from Impact: 100.00 km ( = 62.10 miles )
Projectile diameter: 300.00 meters ( = 984.00 feet )
Projectile Density: 3000 kg/m3 (Dense Rock)
Impact Velocity: 25.00 km per second ( = 15.50 miles per second )
Impact Angle: 90 degrees
Target Density: 2500 kg/m3
Target Type: Sedimentary Rock

The Earth is not strongly disturbed by the impact and loses negligible mass.
The impact does not make a noticeable change in the tilt of Earth's axis (< 5 hundreths of a degree).
The impact does not shift the Earth's orbit noticeably.

Transient Crater Diameter: 5.44 km ( = 3.38 miles )
Transient Crater Depth: 1.92 km ( = 1.19 miles )

Final Crater Diameter: 6.82 km ( = 4.24 miles )
Final Crater Depth: 527 meters ( = 1730 feet )

The major seismic shaking will arrive approximately 20 seconds after impact.
Richter Scale Magnitude: 6.9
Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 100 km:

VI. Felt by all, many frightened. Some heavy furniture moved; a few instances of fallen plaster. Damage slight.

VII. Damage negligible in buildings of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken.

The ejecta will arrive approximately 2.4 minutes after the impact.
At your position there is a fine dusting of ejecta with occasional larger fragments
Average Ejecta Thickness: 7.83 mm ( = 3.08 tenths of an inch )
Mean Fragment Diameter: 4.26 cm ( = 1.68 inches )

The air blast will arrive approximately 5.05 minutes after impact.
Peak Overpressure: 15400 Pa = 0.154 bars = 2.19 psi
Max wind velocity: 34.2 m/s = 76.5 mph
Sound Intensity: 84 dB (Loud as heavy traffic)
Damage Description:

Glass windows may shatter.
Glass windows will shatter.

[Anonymous No.10603158]

>>10603149
total false comparison. you think scientists operate by the same standards military defense guys do? for sure if the military were running the JWST, they would have sent 10 up by now, 9 of which blew up or failed, but one would definitely be working by now and taking spy pictures of your gf since 2017. scientists have to make sure it works since they need to make the most of their grants; militaryfags can just throw money at it until it works since they get 100x the spending and everybody knows they just need to get it up there asap without actually designing it correctly

[Anonymous No.10603194]

>>10603149
What? You mean the science experiment? What the fuck does a bunch of astrophysicists jerking off to infrared pictures have to do with planetary defense?

[Anonymous No.10603199]

>>10603025
>>10603029

Praying for an NYC hit, though Lagos or Chicago would also be breddy gud

[Anonymous No.10603211]

>>10603021
>1 in 100 chance of a blast not much larger than Tunguska

Shit thread

[Anonymous No.10603231]

>>10603211
You have to admit that it *would* be pretty cool if that "slightly larger than Tunguska"-sized blast was centered over, say, central park...

[Anonymous No.10603244]

>>10603231
1 in 100 it even lands on earth and a literal lottery for it actually hitting anything relevant, who cares.

[Anonymous No.10603256]

>>10603244
So what you're saying is that there's a chance?

[Anonymous No.10603264]

>>10603021
That's from the Planetary Defense Conference, they're doing an asteroid impact exercise
http://pdc.iaaweb.org/
Day 0 exercise details are posted here
https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/pd/cs/pdc19/
Live stream for the conference is here, be sure to watch this week for some planetary defense talks:
https://sservi.nasa.gov/event/2019-iaa-planetary-defense-conference-live-stream/
And the schedule is here, some talks look interesting. Like one's basically what we think will happen if we nuke an asteroid.
http://pdc.iaaweb.org/?q=ipc
>>10603045
It could still happen! In the exercise they still don't know the orbital parameters

[Anonymous No.10603273]

>>10603264
>t. grad student on nasa grant

[Anonymous No.10603625]

>>10603021
How much damage can this asteroid cause if it lands in a densely populated area? Also , is it an extinction level asteroid or just a city levelling asteroid?

[Anonymous No.10604055]

>>10603021
>1/100
It's fucking nothing. That's like having 7 daughters in a row

[Anonymous No.10604132]

>Australia misses out on major geographical catastrophy *again*

Lmaoing, have fun in the afterlife nerds.

[Anonymous No.10604785]

>>10603264
Fuck off nasacuck. If an asteroid ever does come, while you fags are holding conferences and hiring paedo scuba divers, Elon will PERSONALLY INVENT and INDEPENDENTLY FINANCE the actual solution lmao.

[Anonymous No.10604790]

>>10604785
Lmao'ing @urlyfe, muskrat

[Anonymous No.10604806]

>>10604055
I have a less than 1/100 chance of a woman wanting to procreate with me. Checkmate.

[Anonymous No.10604818]

>>10603040
We've sent probes to asteroids and comets. The only difference is what would be done with them when they get there.

[Anonymous No.10604877]

>>10604790
Ok pedo

[Anonymous No.10604881]

>>10603152
this description is at 100km? so the particularly dangerous shockwave is smaller than that?

[Anonymous No.10604884]

>>10603021
Please God kill us.

[Anonymous No.10604886]

>>10603021
>2027
>1% chance
>no mention of size because it's probably wimpy as fuck
Oof I'm spooped

[Anonymous No.10604887]

>>10603127
the asteroid impact of 4/13

[Anonymous No.10604897]

>>10604790
based elon will personally fly to the asteroid in his iron man suit, blow it to smithereens with a mighty kamehameha laser beam, and ride back to earth in his tesla roadster

[Anonymous No.10604900]

>>10604886
>no mention of size
can you read

[Anonymous No.10604901]

>>10604897
reddit onions chugger. Can't wait for this faggot earth to blow up already.

[Anonymous No.10604905]

>>10604055
You underestimate the chances of having 7 daughters in a row.

[Anonymous No.10604910]

>>10603021
Please. Don't tease me like this.

[Anonymous No.10604924]

>>10604900
Ok ok I stopped reading after '1% chance'
Lol @ atmospheric nerds, that thing will be a basketball by the time it gets into the spicy zone, even then it probably airbursts like that russian one. Life goes on

[Anonymous No.10604925]

>>10603111
Yeah desu I wo uild be happy. No more /pol/tards, nor more SJWs, no more Christians, no more Muslims, no more political correctness, no more climate change deniers, no more creationists, no more people saying gender is a social construct. Hopefuly a comet/asteroid, bioterrorism, or a nuclear war occur at some point in my life, and hopefully sometime towards the end of it when Im old and have done most of the stuff I want to do.

[Anonymous No.10604962]

>>10604881
Those things would be what you'd feel/experience if you were standing a full 100km away from the impact site.

[Anonymous No.10605027]

>>10603029
California yes!

[Anonymous No.10605030]

>>10604055
small chance - big consequence

you need to be prepared for that shit. 1/100 is not that low

[Anonymous No.10605033]

>>10603021
Hoping it takes out Jerusalem

[Anonymous No.10605045]

>>10605033
imagine if it hit Hollywood

[Anonymous No.10605054]

>>10605045
The s oyers would hold year long funerals and cry every day. MUH SUPERHEROES AND DISNEY!!!!!!

[Anonymous No.10605060]

>>10605054
good, it'll keep them occupied for a little while, time they could've been using to degrade society

[Anonymous No.10605062]

>>10605054
That edit KEK

[Anonymous No.10605090]

>>10603021
fake news: https://www.sciencealert.com/nasa-is-about-to-simulate-what-a-planetary-asteroid-emergency-in-2027-would-look-like

[Anonymous No.10605131]

this isn't real, but if there were a 100% chance of a strike from a large orbital body and we have a decade or more advanced notice, would we try to alter it's trajectory?

If we altered it's trajectory JUST enough, could we capture it in Earths orbit in order to mine it? The most sensible of all the wild asteroid mining plans involve capturing a space rock with a large net and dragging it into Earth orbit. If the rock is coming to us, that's half the job done. Has NASA ever thought about doing this?

[Anonymous No.10605192]

>>10605054
Reddit's face when hollowood gets hit by asteroid

[Anonymous No.10605426]

>>10603273
Nah, I'm just a fan boy
>>10604785
And how do we find out if an asteroid will hit us in the first place? How do we determine the asteroid's trajectory? And if we want to deflect the asteroid we really need to know it's physical properties. SpaceX doesn't operate telescopes or do science, and that's ok because they're damn good at making rockets. The current scenario also considers only two rockets for deflecting the asteroid falcon heavy and SLS (not happening):
cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/pd/cs/pdc19/pdc19_briefing2.pdf
And the falcon heavy is favored for nuking it.
>>10605131
yes we would alter its trajectory. For deflection, you only need cm/s of dV, putting it in orbit would km/s of dV.
>>sensible
no, those plans are not very sensible, unless the rock is really small
>>100%
so in this scenario, 100% chance of impact can't be determined for about 16 months, which is sort of a problem
>>10605045
in this scenario with the current hypothetical parameters, LA is in the serious damage region. Which means that if the asteroid strikes nearby there is potential for window breakage, some structural damage, and even 2nd degree burns from the thermal radiation. San francisco is in the severe damage region, the blast is strong enough to blow down doors and cause widespread structural damage, and the thermal radiation is strong enough to cause 3rd degree burns. Denver and NYC are in the you're absolutely fucked regions along the asteroid potential impact path.
>>10603211
it's now 1 in 10! ....in the hypothetical scenario

[Anonymous No.10605483]

Apophis which is projected to hit in 2029 only has a 2.7% chance of hitting the Earth

[Anonymous No.10606276]

>>10605483
That was in 2004. It's been known for a while that there's no chance of it hitting in 2029, and something like a .0001% chance of it hitting in the next century.

[Anonymous No.10606302]

Divert the asteroid into the moon - it will give it atmosphere and water.
Two birds with one space stone.

[Anonymous No.10606448]

Anon, pls. If you want to worry, check what's WR-104 (no, it's not an asteroid).

[Anonymous No.10606466]

>>10603021
>not even catycylsmic
fuck off nigger
not a happening

[Anonymous No.10606470]

1% chance is just shortbhand for "never"

[Anonymous No.10606869]

>>10603025
>>10603029
>Only burgerland or africa gets hit
Best case scenario