/sci/ - Science & Math

because it's extremely contagious

2% death rate over hundreds of millions of people makes a lot of avoidable dead.

>What is exponential growth?

>>11495920
Why are you showing the logarithmic graph?

>>11495950
It's likely much less than 2% since there are countless people who didn't even have symptoms and didn't get tested.
Also it's mostly just killing old people and at least in the US we'll probably be better off without them

>>11496105
because you can intuitively extrapolate exponential growth that way

case fatality rate has grown 113% in 46 days

>>11495920
What increasing exponentially is the testing.
Positive results remains a constant ~10% of all tests administered, as has been the case since the beginning.
There's your exponential curve retard.

>>11496134
Not to mention deaths are following the same curve.

>>11495920
>cases explode worldwide
>CFR goes up instead of down as predicted by you fags
>governments impose draconian measures, manage to slow it down somewhat
>s-s-s-ee it's a nothingburger
Justdaflu fags are getting desperate

>>11496140
>t. shill

>>11496141
cfr going up despite the largest lockdowns of all time is the blackpill

who knows how high it would be without the lockdowns. 4.4% is already 44x worse than the seasonal flu

>>11496105
because this thread is poor quality bait and you fell for it

>>11496140
>NOOOOOO MUH BOOMERS

>>11496111
We don’t know if your body actually gets rid of it all

>>11495950
>2% death rate while the medical system is yet to be overwhelmed

So 10 fold that when it does. Sounds pretty deadly to me, senpai.

>>11495920
We're UNDER-reacting to it, you retard.

>>11495950
2% dead would more than likely help the economy and ease resources if we never panicked. Instead you saved a few pointless lives that would end anyway. #worthit right?

Godamn, half of /sci/ is screaming about global warming and now that nature hands us a solution we instead wreck the global economy so we can live on polluting and resource digging. I'm beginning to think you guys don't actually care either way and just like the sound of your own crying

>>11496150
You would have to test a random sample of the population to get a good estimate of total infected.
Currently they are only testing people presenting as severely ill and matching the symptoms. Those results are worthless for extrapolating to the general population.
But of course you're a shill, a brainlet or (most likely) both, so you won't understand.

>>11495920
I’m tired of all the misinformation I see in all these threads. This shit is serious now because everybody is a scared idiot. Go here, https://www./elsevier.com/connect/coronavirus-information-center it has a link to 22000 peer reviewed publications on the virus. Read that shit and shut up so you faggots don’t destroy the worlds economy.

>>11495925
>>11496169
You fucking idiots need to go this >>11496643
Page and read the peer reviewed articles, or shut up and stop saying this ridiculous shit.

>>11496665
Sorry meant this >>11496658

>>11495920
Because that y axis is logarithmic you neanderthal

>>11495920
THATS LINEAR GROWTH ON A LOG GRAPH YOU DUMBFUCKING RETARD. THAT IS THE DEFINITION OF EXPONENTIAL GROWTH.

kill urself, my man

>>11496688
>>11496693
Based retard replying twice to the same post to say the exact same thing that's been pointed out already.

>>11496111
it wont be low when tons of people go to the hospital at the same time

>>11496172
its 2% with overloading retard, it's closer to .2% without

>>11495920
Because it clogs up hospitals and has exponential infection rate, retard.

>>11495920
Are exponential functions a straight line in any base logarithmic scale?

>>11497193
>Are exponential functions a straight line in any base logarithmic scale?
Yes. log_n(x)=log(x)/log(n), thus taking a different logarithm is the same as multiplying by a constant.

>>11497207
Thanks

>>11496657
Finally someone that understands stats. What methods would you use to find a good estimate? Bayesian?

>>11496658
Why you keep posting this? Find some good new articles that say corona is nothing and post them

>Why are boomers in charge panicking about a virus that kills boomers?

How are people coming up with a 2% mortality rate. I just did a quick math problem based on total confirmed and total deaths related to covid 19. As of today 3/24/2020 the percentage is 4.32%

>>11497299
Most of the dead are old as fuck and already sick, and lots of cases go unverified because of how irrelevant Coronavirus is. It’s only 0.2% for people under forty, even ignoring the huge amount of unverified cases.

>>11495920
Because people are dying, retard. And China lied, almost nobody recovers once they lise the ability to breathe on their own.

where's the death chart?

10 billion by May 5. Takes about two weeks to die, I guess. I have this strange feeling that my 40th birthday will probably be the best one I ever had. Best in 30 years for sure.
>tfw 40 years is almost over

The real death rate is like 50-60% overall.

I hope the quarantine lifts so all of the retards including autistic faggots like you can die off.

The rates of infection are a geometric progression or exponential growth, OK, Looking at WHO data for Europe some people seem surprised that in 67 days we got 100,000 and 11 days later 200,000 and then only four days later 300,000. But if you use logarithms you can see its an underlying daily increase that is fairly constant at about 17% more per day.

k^67 = 100k. take logs : 67.ln(k) = ln(100000) so the first daily rate is 1.18 or 18%. i.e. e(l(100000)/67)

go forward 11 days: e(l(200000)/78) = 1.169 or still 17%

go forward 4 days to the scary 300k total: e(l(300000)/82) == 1.166
so the daily infection rate is fairly constant.

USA you really need to lock down

>>11495954
The rates of infection are a geometric progression or exponential growth..... Looking at WHO data for Europe some people seem surprised that in 67 days we got 100,000 and 11 days later 200,000 and then only four days later 300,000. But if you use logarithms you can see its an underlying daily increase that is fairly constant at about 17% more per day.

k^67 = 100k. take logs : 67.ln(k) = ln(100000) so the first daily rate is 1.18 or 18%. i.e. e(l(100000)/67)

go forward 11 days: e(l(200000)/78) = 1.169 or still 17%

go forward 4 days to the scary 300k total: e(l(300000)/82) == 1.166
so the daily infection rate is fairly constant.

USA you really need to lock down

>>11497251
you would have to have a model.

>>11497349
about 2% of the figure in the graph (note the axis is logarithmic, and so the rate of infection is an exponential.

>>11496138
yeah about 2% of infection rate

post yfw they will be proven right

>>11495920
Because our cushy lifestyles have made us unfamiliar with sacrifice and struggle

>>11496150
it will continue to go up bc you got to keep in mind this disease has a long asymptomatic period. so we are effectively looking a week into the past right now. in 2-3 weeks it will look like its "going down" and people still start to shitpost here "haha it was a nothingburger you retards" and then lockdowns will end and it will immediately ravage the population for round2

>>11497502
sure they got corona, and not just the beer. that much they were right about.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/florida-spring-breakers-test-positive-for-coronavirus/ar-BB11Ac0E

>>11495950
75% of infected are asymptomatic

>>11496105
A log lin graph tells you when the government has done something that works.

Why do people keep posting these dumb threads. Do they really think themselves smarter than the best epidemiologists and medical experts?

>>11500348
Medical experts sometimes can't do stats.

>>11500355
Apparently so can't the people on this board.

>>11500355
No one can do stats. People think simple division is stats and then try to back up whatever stoopid opinion they have with that. Real stats is theory based, but no one cares and everyone is a stats expert

>>11500419
>People think simple division is stats
Multiplication too!

>>11497364
isn't it exactly 50%? you either die or you don't