/sci/ - Science & Math

>>10736311
anyone but the sixth

>>10736313
why?

First, I guess. It's 1/6... if the 5th guy has to pull the trigger, it's 1/2. Don't want to be him

>>10736313
/thread

The sixth, because the odds of the game being already over until your turn are the greatest.

>>10736323
oh wait, it doesn't matter at all

The odds of getting a bullet get higher, but the odds of the game ending before your turn do too. They level each out at a 1/6 chance of dying for everyone

>>10736311
Assuming the barrel is not spun between the rounds, it's eqal to spinning the barrel and looking who the bullet is pointing at. It's always one of the six players with equal probability.

>>10736311
The 6th because if 5 fires blank you can punch him the noggin, or run away before it's too late, etc

>>10736311
No spinning after a shot?

>>10736313
>>10736317
Isn't it the exact same chances even if 5 didn't shoot you? He'd just hand you the gun and then there's a 100% you're gonna blow your brains out.

>>10736329
>>10736353
This

>>10736311
Wait can you clarify: What's the objective? Do I want to get shot or not? Hypothetically speaking, ofc.

i thought the barrel is spun after every try. What if it is? Then being first is the best, right?

>>10736311
i suppose we already know you're a brainlet since you failed to properly pose the simple question.
what are the rules for spinning the cylinder? is it optional? does the 5th guy get to spin between his two trigger pulls?

>>10736311
Since who loses is determined by which part of the revolving magazine (please excuse my brainlet level /k/ knowledge) the bullet is in and not where you are I would want any spot but 5, as I don’t want to shoot somebody.

Now if who died was determined by a dice roll I would want to be as far down the line from that dice as possible since the probability resets every roll

/sci/ is truly full of ignorant nignogs. Come the fuck on.
Assuming that people spin between every shot, it's best to go first.
The chance of surviving the first trigger pull is 83%.
Whereas the chance of the gun not going off 6 times in a row, for example, is 1-(5/6)^6 which means a ~34% chance to still be alive after the 6th trigger pull.

>>10737250
But doesn't that prove you should go last? Cause it has a higher chance to go off on someone else and the game ends?

>>10736311
First, I get my hand on the gun and hold everyone at 1/6th chances gunpoint. I back away slowly and leave the room ending the game and earning myself a free firearm.

>>10736311
>>10736313
6th is best. If 1-5 pull the bullet you don't die, if 5 blasts you it's the same as if you pulled it yourself
Any earlier and you get one less chance it's someone else's

>>10736311
I want to be first simply because of the psychological aspect. If I go first and get the bullet i day instantly. If I don’t get the bullet then I don’t have to sit in anticipation hoping that it won’t be me. That sounds like the least fun part. The anticipation

>>10737390
this

and if the revolver is actually made for this game there is 99% chance that 4th guy will die. Since in the ogs of this "game" who actually made money acting or playing it on a stage would made a cylinder bearings so smooth that weight of one bullet was great enough to make the bullet in the end be at the bottom.

>>10736902
Or he might not even kill you with his shot. It didn't say where he'd shoot you.

The sixth
And if noone died before me, why should I even pull the trigger ? I know I lost at the game

Probability is a joke, all you'd have to do is have a cursory knowledge of how far a revolver chamber would spin based on n-force applied, watch the bullet go in, watch it spin, then go from there. If you dove deep enough into the information at hand, you could predict things with a 99.99% accuracy. Stuff like "IT'S ONE SIXTH EVERYWHERE" Yeah, maybe if you have your eyes closed.

>>10737508

>>10737512
Shhhh....honey, go to sleep, it's late, and we have to get up early...

>>10737512
I'm surprised you were able to form a coherent thou- oh, wait, you just posted a picture by clicking a few buttons.

>>10737513
>>10737514
seething samefagging schizophrenic

>>10737513
>>10737514
Haha someone needs a chill pill

>>10737512
I second this.

You want to be fifth since the original statement quantifies that the fifth guy pulls a blank

>>10737508
You cannot with you stupid human eyes and brain be able to accurately predict how much force and velocity was applied to the cylinder, nor would you know the weight of the bullet or relative mass of the cylinder

>>10737324
This

>>10737582
Yes you can, animators do it all the time.

>>10737517
>>10737551
samefagging squared

>>10737508
Couldn't you just count the clicks the gun makes. Sounds a lot more probable than estimating all those variables. Still god damned retarded though because that would require super human abilities.

>>10737595

>>10736311
It doesn't matter. There are no reshuffles and the number getting shot is determined from the start. Finding out that an earlier number didn't get shot is information you can't act on. You're just as likely to be the unlucky number if you're first or if you're last.

>>10737148
>To shot or to not get shot

If the barrel is not spun between shots, odds are 1/6 for everyone. If the barrel is spun between shots and the game ends when someone dies, it's best to go last. Even if it makes it all the way around to you, your odds are still 1/6, but there's only a 30% chance it will make it around to you.

>>10737130

Isn't the point of russian roulette that each person spins the chamber before pulling the trigger? Or is there only one spin at the start?

>>10737250

Surely probability resets after every shot?

>>10737709
>If the barrel is not spun between shots, odds are 1/6 for everyone.
no, the one going last would have the highest chance of survival

>>10737250
>tells everyone else they're a nignog
>doesn't realize spinning before every shot defeats the purpose of the question and triviializes it

anon you truly are a work of art.

>>10737749
Why would it? The only inputs are the order of players and the position of the loaded chamber. Why would you not expect the cylinder to end in a random position?

>>10737958
Because it doesn't end in a "random" position, it depends on what chamber it's loaded into, and the force of the spin. You could accurately locate where the bullet is if you had the information aka paid attention during the loading, or loaded it yourself.

>>10738009
*force and direction, and any gravitational variables

if not spun: it doesn't matter

if spun: go 5th

5

>>10738073
Because I would prefer to keep the loaded gun in my position and dispatch the end of the game than give a sure round to anyone in the game. The number six may not play by Tue rules and others too, if rules are refused by even one chaos can ensu, and chaos is no good I prefer control over chaos. If I play I follow the rules, 5he game!

>>10738082
Not sure if this is a troll post or a joke, but of not, as a general rule when someone is asking you about a logic puzzle or thought experiment, the assumption is that you are responding based on the information that was actually provided, not some hypothetical scenario you made up yourself. Generally the whole point is to simplify the problem and identify what the key logical and causal factors are so that we can gain a better understanding of how such factors interact with eachother, ceteris paribus, and and how these impact our intuitions.

For example, consider the trolly problem. A decent number of people have trouble understanding even the basic point: the thought experiment is intended to isolate our intuitions about agency, moral responsibility, and consequentialism. In effect its asking us two things (1) do we thinks its worse if more people suffer than if fewer people suffer, and (2) are we willing to take personal responsibility for causing the death of someone if it was only done to prevent an even bigger tragedy from occuring. You will often here brainlets respond with some sort of hypothetical scenario that completely undermines the question like "well what if the one guy on the tracks was gonna develop a cure fore cancer and save 100 people". This response is retarded because it doesn't actually answer the question and moreover because the very point intended to be conveyed by this response is actually already built into the question: if his saving more people is sufficient, in your eyes, to justify the choice to save his life over the others, than you position precisely identical to the utilitarian who says "pull the switch".

In OPs case, we should avoid taking into consideration questions like "what if they cheat" or something like that. If it helps, you can view the question as a conditional so it would be saying well "assuming that everyone actually does play by the rules, which option is the best".

>>10738180
I associate your point of view, however when a firearm is involved and certain death and above all occurring in a group setting I will consider firmly two things fair and logic.

I question would anyone give a loaded gun to a person to shoot themselves with in this scenario? Without considering consequences? Only insane people and illogical people!

The rules are simple one dies, all agreed to play, it is known with certainty who does and reaction of the person destined for the bullet is unknown factor, high stress and a loaded gun!

If I am playing I have a good understanding of what the end game is, and I would get it done and see it through! The unknown factor could equal someone who did not get the bullet may still do so and that is never an option! So if you are not ready to take a life, being yours or others who agreed to such a game aka life than don't play the game!

>>10736311
wow this board is retarded. To start with, your way of expressing sucks dick. but you are saying everybody shots and pases except one dies or if you are the 5th and nobody has died yet, then you die.
So the 6th has ZERO chances of dying because there is a 100% chances the other are dead.
fucking retards.
Also i dont think this is how the russian ruolette works. You spin everytime before you shot.

>>10738301
the chances are
1-4: 1/6
5: 2/6
6: 0

>>10738180
>playing by the rules
You're lucky your timing is so good.

>>10738301
Your'e right with your last two sentences, but
>If 5th person fires a blank, he then shoots the 6th.
You might want to check your reading comprehension.

>>10738301
>>10738322
The 5th shots the 6th (player), if he wins.

>>10738340
And I need to check my spelling lmao

>>10738009
Assume that you choose the order before loading, and an impartial person loads the gun and spins the cylinder with the barrel pointed down so gravity doesn't affect the outcome.

assuming everyone spins before they pull the trigger, you'd want to be in the 5th position because you have the best chance of not having to pull the trigger at all

>>10738357
Well, that's not really specified in the OP, whether the gun is loaded before or after the order is chosen, if the order is already chosen, then obviously you want to be the one loading the gun. If none of the contestents are allowed to, and an impartial person loads it, before or after choosing places, then you could say that the odds have become more or less even, but only from your standpoint. The loader could have spun it very little, or even not at all, and if he;s impartial it wouldn't really mater where he placed the bullet if he didn't spin it. To him at least. But the fact still remains, the chance isn't 1/6th if you know the relevant information. But, I guess that's not really the question is it. I guess if the order was chosen before the bullet was loaded AND an impartial person loaded the gun and spun it, then the chances would be 1/6th to the perspective of the contestants. NOt to an observent spinner, and not to the observant contestant in a game of RR where he loads and spins the bullet, keeping track, then sneakily chooses his spot in relative safety. The odds become much much lower. So, it really depends on how the game is structured.

>>10738392
>Muh technicalities
Yeah, I mean, I get all of that, but it's clearly not what OP was going for. For most of these statistics scenarios, there's simple shorthand for "ignore all that shit," like "a fair coin." Let's just assume we're dealing with a "fair gun" here.

>>10738340>>10738341
>If 5th person fires a blank, he then shoots the 6th (shot)
how about that?

>>10738514
in this case, all would have 1/6 chance. whats the fucking game here? The only difference is that number 5 might kill a person and the 6th might get killed.

>>10737324
>Any earlier and you get one less chance it's someone else's
no, you fucking retard. That would only be truth in the subtotal of chances once the round has passed trough the other people and not killed anybody. everybdy has the same chances of dying in the beggining. If person 1 dies, then the rest have 0, if 1 doesnt then the rest have 1/5 and so on.the total still gives 1/6 each

>>10736311
If the chamber is not spun between trigger pulls, it doesn't matter when you take your turn. If the chamber IS spun between turns, it's best to go fifth, assuming that the fifth person has to kill the sixth person if they survive; otherwise, it's best to go sixth.

Very simple the answer is provided, no need to assess bullets and gun and possibilities!

Number 5 shoots number six, which one would you be and why is the question.! It's \ personality assessment question not a riddle to be solved as again solution is provided!

>>10736311
All of them.

>>10736311
Chances are equal

>>10736311
lol, blanks dont have a bullet in em they are just a jacket with power in em no one can die

>>10736311
1st person - 1/6 chance to die
2nd person - 5/6*1/5 = 1/6 chance to die
3rd person - 5/6*4/5*1/4 = 1/6 chance to die
4th person - 5/6*4/5*3/4*1/3 = 1/6 chance to die
5th person - 5/6*4/5*3/4*2/3*1/2 = 1/6 chance to die
6th person - 5/6*4/5*3/4*2/3*1/2 = 1/6 chance to die
But psychologically I’d be 1st I guess

makes no difference

chance of 1 dying=1/6

chance of 2 dying =chance of 1 living*2 shooting self = 5/6 * 1/5 = 1/6

chance of 3 dying=1 living*2 living*3 shooting self= 5/6 * 4/5 * 1/4 = 1/6

4 dying = 1 live*2 live*3 live*4 shooting self = 5/6*4/5*3/4*1/3 = 1/6

5 dying = ... = 5/6*4/5*3/4*2/3*1/2 = 1/6

6 dying = 1/6

Another way to think of it is since the barrel isn't spun between rounds, everyone was assigned a chamber before the game started, all with equal probability of having the bullet. The order no longer matters.

If the 5th guy shoots a blank right against his head, he's unlikely to be in condition to shoot the 6th guy.

>>10736311
I'd be sixth. If fifth does not blow his brains out, then at least I get one chance to run away and try to dodge the bullet.

>>10736902
>blank
Shooting a blank on your temple is likely to kill you.

>>10739329
>fires a blank
probably meant "dry fires". the gun clicks, no bullet.

Oh lawd just write a simple python simulation of this so the retards just shut it already.

I'd do it, but I don't have a computer available right now.

>>10737194
no being last is if you want to live it‘s 1/6 for the first to die and 5/7 * 1/6 for the second which is lower

>>10736311
If you want to survive, your safest bet is to not play... Js

>>10736311
You could replace of the first four people with one guy. That guy would either spin the barrel once and pull the trigger 5 times or spin the barrel 5 times and pull the trigger 5 times. That guy would seem to be suicidal to me.

>>10736311
6th, because despite the chances being the exact same from every position, you can pussy out if you're 6th and it hasn't fired yet.

>>10736311
Best position is anything but 5th

Because 5th have to kill himself or someone else.

Assuming there is an equal chance to spin to any chamber, everyone has an equal chance of dying. Saying that you should go last is wrong because the spin has a 1/6th chance of getting the first person to shoot the blank that is farthest from the bullet. They're all equal.

>>10739635
You can't pussy out. The rules are that the 5th person will shoot you if it gets to their turn and they survive.

But who shoots person number 1?
>thats the answer

It's always 50% cause you either get shot or you don't

>>10736311
Assuming they spin the cylinder each time:
Player 1 dies => 1/6 = 16.6%
Player 2 dies => 5/6*1/6 = 13.9%
Player 3 dies => (5/6)^2*1/6 = 11.6%
Player 4 dies => (5/6)^3*1/6 = 9.6%
Player 5 dies => (5/6)^4*1/6 = 8.03%
If Player 5 gets a blank then he shoots Player 6, so player 6 dies in every case where nobody else dies. Which is about 40 percent.
You want to be player 5. You do not want to be player 6

Assuming they don't spin the cylinder then it doesn't matter because the person to die is determined before the game starts.

>>10739669
Unless someone 1-4 already killed themselves

>>10736326
>>10736329
>>10736353
>>10737140
>>10737130
>>10737231
>>10738055
>>10739323
>>10739357
>>10739722
>>10740135
OP here. Answer is they're all equal. Nowhere did I say the chamber is spun each time.

>If 5th person fires a blank, he then shoots the 6th.
People that said spinning the chamber, why would I put this in the problem if the chamber is spun after each person, huh? The 5th shoots the 6th person so the 6th doesn't pussy out or shoot someone else.

>>10737467
That's why 5th shoots you if you're 6th

>>10740191
Wow cool so it's just the most straightforward answer of "it doesn't matter"
waste of a thread

>>10736311
hmmm... well.
1st has odds 1/6 of dying
2nd has odds (5/6)*(1/5) = 1/6
3rd has odds (5/6)(4/5)*(1/4) = 1/6
… and so on, they all have the same probability of being shot, 1/6, your positions doesn't matter.

I guess it's 6 but let's simute it:

---

#!/bin/python
import random

def play(people_losses):
for i in range(len(people_losses)):
if random.randint(0,1) == 1:
people_losses[i] += 1
return people_losses
return people_losses

def main():
people_losses=[0] * 6
for i in range(10000):
people_losses = play(people_losses)
print(people_losses)

main()
----
returns losses per person for 10000 simulatons:
[4952, 2495, 1299, 625, 303, 165]
[4897, 2485, 1256, 674, 340, 177]
[4952, 2495, 1299, 625, 303, 165]

>>10736311
5th, that way I might get to murder someone

>>10740761
doesn't account for change in odds as the gun is being passed down the line

>>10736311
5th person right?

>>10736316
You're assuming everyone else is still alive. Someone could easily die before you though

>>10740768
True my bad...

>>10736311
person 0

I'm going to make a python simulation. Wait here boys.

>>10740768

This what you main?
---

#!/bin/python
import random

def play(people_losses):
bullets=[0] * 6
bullets[random.randint(0,len(bullets)-1)] = 1

for i in range(len(people_losses)):
if bullets[i] == 1:
people_losses[i] += 1
return people_losses
return people_losses

def main():
people_losses=[0] * 6
for i in range(100000):
people_losses = play(people_losses)
print(people_losses)

main()

---
16493, 16878, 16779, 16567, 16697, 16586
16696, 16674, 16652, 16852, 16510, 16616

import random

def chamber_set():
chamber = random.randint(1,6)
return chamber

def game(chamber_number):
player = 1
for i in range(1, 7):
if i == chamber_number:
return player
else:
player += 1

def main():
one_loss = 0
two_loss = 0
three_loss = 0
four_loss = 0
five_loss = 0
six_loss = 0
for i in range(10000):
chamber = chamber_set()
loss = game(chamber)
if loss == 1:
one_loss += 1
elif loss == 2:
two_loss += 1
elif loss == 3:
three_loss += 1
elif loss == 4:
four_loss += 1
elif loss == 5:
five_loss += 1
elif loss == 6:
six_loss += 1
print(f"""
{(one_loss/10000)*100}
{(two_loss/10000)*100}
{(three_loss/10000)*100}
{(four_loss/10000)*100}
{(five_loss/10000)*100}
{(six_loss/10000)*100}
""")

-----
Person one = 16.33%
Person two = 17.22%
Person three = 16.97%
Person four = 17.36%
Person five = 15.73%
Person six = 16.39%

Looks like everyone has an equal chance of dying.

>>10740842
>creates uniform distribution
>gets uniform distribution
Magic.

Doesn't matter if the chamber is not spun.
6th if the chamber is spun.

Anyone who says differently is retarded and needs to fuck off.

>>10736311
First, be a fucking man.

>>10740966
>>10740966
Damn dude, use arrays

Also anyone but 6th because I know statistically the 5th person is probably a retard who would shoot me in the gut instead of aiming for brainstem.

>>10737757
>not understanding bernoulli trials

>>10738392
>Well, that's not really specified
if it‘s not specified you have no information and can assume that it‘s random

>>10740191
>inb4 some guy points out that the chamber spins by itself