/sci/ - Science & Math

>>10100991
Which one specifically? If you're coming here for a charity handout of information on models and where each one is best try Google first and come back when you have acquainted yourself with the field.

>>10100991
NPC fuk
buy low sell high
???
profit

>>10100991
>formulas that would predict market movement
let y be the price point of the market at time x
let m be a negative number
let b be the price point of the market today

formula for the market's price point at time t is:
y(x) = mx + b

>>10100991
There’s a lot of prediction methods to try and find the most accurate way from using previous data. A good class for it is statistics for strategy. There’s different equations for different predictions you want. For the most part you use multiple equations for the different steps

>>10101000
>buy low
>it goes lower

>>10100991
>>10101013
Basically you get a scatterplot from the data you collected and then find the best equation for the best line to go through. So you’re actually finding the equation so that you can plug in numbers to predict. There’s things like seasonal forecasts, standard deviations and weighted averages to give more power to the most recent data. It’s a process and sometimes it’s best to use multiple forecasts and combine them for a safer bet.

>>10101013 indicators are expressing the state of the market, not predicting it. A vast majority of experienced traders agree that technical analysis is bordering on pseudo science and magic triangles

>>10101037
Lmao you gotta be kidding me.
>expressing the state of the market
So like if it’s a bull market? I assumed OP meant more specific like a stock

If it’s pseudo science big companies wouldn’t hire people for this. It can always be off but it does help predict situations. You put the indicators together and make a formula.

>>10101047
In the book "market wizards" several of the worlds greatest traders are interviewed
>admit tech analysis can be useful but is mostly BS
>understanding what market your in and being in it for a long time is the most important
>risk management
>one of the most prolific of the traders lost half of his net worth in his later years.
The people they hire aren't placing giant stakes off of MACD

>>10100999
crypto

>>10101066
I agree some things are unpredictable but it gives some background for a lot of things. Having experience in the area is better in my opinion because there’s a lot of obvious patterns that happen. Eg. when there’s a crash it’s usually followed by a second crash because of psychology. Never said they were placing stakes on the predictions alone but they do use it if not for a crutch. The guy who lost that money probably got into some riskier investments and you can just be very unlucky sometimes

>>10101066
Things like seasonal forecasts tho aren’t just magic triangles and are widely used

>>10101091
did the seasonal forecast predict the recent crypto crash?

>>10101118
Are you retared? Do you want a perfect formula there isn’t one. By Christmas time they always go up in crypto. Crypto is also mostly held by extremely wealthy individuals and they can dump at anytime. It’s not like that in the real stock market. Not by those margins.

>>10101120
Gotta sell a week or 2 in advance before Christmas tho

>>10101025
nut up and double down
catch the bull wave
make that killing when that market corrects

Unironically buy the fucking dip.

Loaded up on Amazon calls Friday morning. Biggest e-commerce company in the world trading $200 off its 50 day moving average following solid earnings, leading into holiday season? You don’t need a fucking formula to figure that shit out man. SPY rally to end the month. You’re welcome for the free money.

>>10102831
>buying companies the moment they start to fail

>>10102857
>Amazon starting to fail.

Okay, short it then. Have fun being forced to cover by Wednesday.

$1800 by EOW. You heard it here first.

Why are you asking physicists about economics?

>>10102892
What’s the price now? Also what do you trade on like etrade?

>>10100991
all the mathfags who join the finance satan love markov chains. so the answer is: markov chains.

if you want to transcend the bullshit of finance, study chaotic dynamics; there's where you will find a real explanation

>>10102920
Closed $1,642.81 on Friday, just under $40 higher than low of day, which occurred just after market open. Nice indication of weakening selling pressure. Volume moves price. Big institutions load up before holiday season in bull market. Simple logic here, not professing some bullshit technical analysis.

I use ThinkOrSwim, which is a very user friendly broker created by TDAmeritrade. Beautiful charts, trade fees aren’t that bad.

Figured, if I can understand PDEs, I can probably figure this shit out.

probably don't even need high level math, just need to know a whole stack of statistics and know how to apply all that shit. a math/stat major probably does better than a physics major.

>>10103196
After about a year of doing it, desu, there’s really no intensive math that will actually put you at an advantage.

You have to realize how the market works, who is preforming the large majority of trade, and how they are doing it. I mean, if there were 100% reliable methods of winning trades, then high-frequency trading wouldn’t be worth a fucking thing. The point of high-frequency trading is to trade a bunch of smaller positions in smaller time frames in order to mitigate loss. Hedge funds are throwing billions of dollars around, if there were any strict mathematical strategy, the trade has been made 1000s of times by algorithms before you could figure it out.

A lot of the stuff, when it comes to the marker price action, volatility, etc. will be understood very naturally to anyone who is halfway decent at math. Delving deeper, there are some indicators that I found actually pretty interesting and useful. The Ichimoku-cloud in particular is a nice way of looking at trends in relation to recent price action.

At the end of the day, it’s essentially a stochastic process. Surely, you could use some of the mathematics from the underlying theory here, but at the end of the day, random is random, and you don’t want to lose money. I’ve often found the trades that have netted me the most money are plain and simply the trades that were the most obvious to make. Many times when you try to make some technical analysis claim, you get burned.

>>10100991
Market movement is inherently unpredictable because the bulk of people behaves like a rabid badger in a swimming pool.
Bezos could wake up from a weird dream tomorrow and invest his billions in green energy and instantly crash the oil market. Some kids in Alabama could make a hypercredible video on how meat contains Periodine Sulfuriphosphate (III) and make a dent in the food market without any effort or intent. Some autistic savant kid could go from eating out of a fish bowl to inventing free food 3D-printing and absolutely destroy "ultra safe consumer staple" brands like McDonalds or Pepsi.
Until you can predict what Im having for dinner today or what brand of milk im going to buy tomorrow, you will never be able to predict the market.