/lit/ - Literature

[Anonymous No.14923020]

>sometimes unexpected things happen

whoah

[Anonymous No.14923033]

>>14923020
This is an oversimplification.

[Anonymous No.14923037]

>>14923033
It sure is, now imagine cranking out an entire book about that oversimplification, what a fucking retard.

[Anonymous No.14923044]

>>14923037
The fact we are referring to his ideas as a reference point right now is enough proof that he is influential.

[Anonymous No.14923047]

>>14923044
popular*

[Anonymous No.14923074]

>>14923033
>sometimes unexpected things happen and we have to be prepared for them

whoah

[Anonymous No.14923079]

>>14923020
SHILLSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS EVERYWHERE

[Anonymous No.14923086]

>>14923020
Imagine that Economists can't get this simple idea

[Anonymous No.14923087]

>reading a dirty arab

[Anonymous No.14923093]

>>14923033
Ah yes, i remember the cringe comment i made 4 months ago, thanks for reminding me you're still here

[Anonymous No.14923098]

>>14923087
He isn't Arab idiot, do you see him ride a camel in desserts?

[Anonymous No.14923130]

>>14923033
>>14923044
imagine shilling for taleb this hard lol

[Anonymous No.14923141]

>>14923044
>"unexpected things happen"
>Wow, Taleb's groundbreaking idea is already accepted all over the world, he's such an influential thinker.

[Anonymous No.14923144]

Doesn't this apply to the entirety of philosophy? Every philosophical topic I have ever come from is something that most people had semi knowledge on if you dumb it way down but the way it's explained by the author gives you a nugget to view it in a more interesting and theoretical way.

[Anonymous No.14923164]

>>14923020
Yeah, and most people today don't get this. His entire point is that "grandma's wisdom" beats the masturbation of New York Times opinion pieces, "macroeconomics", and the field of psychology.

[Anonymous No.14923217]

>>14923164
Part of it. You're still over-simplifying it.

[Anonymous No.14923255]

>>14923020
Its not like viruses are even that unexpected. They happen like every other year

[Anonymous No.14923293]

>>14923020
>sometimes things go exactly as one would expect
yall think I could get famous from this thesis?
I call it "normal swan"
(plz no steal)

[Anonymous No.14923316]

>>14923020
>>14923037
>>14923047
>>14923079
>>14923087
>>14923093
>>14923130
>>14923141
>>14923144
>>14923255
>>14923293
The state of this board.

[Anonymous No.14923328]

>>14923316
Go on and explain how we are wrong

[Anonymous No.14923390]

>>14923328
Random things happen yes, it's the fat tails that we need to worry about. Statisticians, politicians, economists, psychologists and all the other IYI BS vendors don't understand fat tails and why they are dangerous, and/or they try to base their defense against fat tails based on past events. See the financial crisis of 2007 vs 1987.

Corona as an example: We don't know the risks of corona, the continuous exposure to the tail events increases the chance for things to go wrong, so previous and current risk-cost-benefit analysis won't help us and will in fact, as we have seen, be outright dangerous. We are dealing with fat tails which the current theories and models can't deal with.

This is the reason why overreacting is far more beneficial than under reacting. We are likely to survive a pandemic, but we can't know for sure before hand that we will, and at some point in history we will not survive due to the inadequate measures taken to prevent it from running havoc.

[Anonymous No.14923442]

>things happen quickly

[Anonymous No.14923456]

>>14923390
Based; and this all makes sense after religiously reading Taleb's twitter and books.

[Anonymous No.14923501]

And somehow the people running the show missed the message. Smart people like to believe stupid things to make their lives more interesting. Taleb slaps them straight. Why exactly does this make you mad?

[Anonymous No.14923518]

>>14923037
>what a fucking retard
The retards are the ones actually reading this shit going WOAH DUDE
>>14923044
Like you. The only people ever mentioning him are you shills and retards
>>14923098
A sandnigger is a sandnigger

[Anonymous No.14923529]

>>14923086
several investors and economists has been talking about this for at least a year. It was a question of when it would happen

[Anonymous No.14923530]

>>14923390
>fat tails
Jesus Christ fuck off with your self-help 'cool'-naming the blatantly obvious

[Anonymous No.14923532]

>>14923530
Taleb didn't invent the term, you retard.

[Anonymous No.14923538]

>>14923532
I know jackass

[Anonymous No.14923681]

>>14923020

A black swan is not merely an improbable event but is an improbable event which changes one's conception of normality. Larry from Hoboken winning the lottery is an improbable event but it is not a black swan^1 because it does not change anything about the lottery. 9/11 was a black swan because it was improbable and it fundamentally altered the United State's approach to foreign policy, it changed the definition of normal.

1. Possibly from Larry's perspective it is but we'll set that aside.

[Anonymous No.14924058]

>>14923442
>bad things fast extra good

[Anonymous No.14924292]

>>14923530
this

[Anonymous No.14925102]

Best philosopher in modern times, perhaps ever.

[Anonymous No.14925838]

>expect the unexpected

[Anonymous No.14925903]

So is Australia safe?

[Anonymous No.14925909]

>>14923020
>within a certain range same thing happen most of the time
whoah

[Anonymous No.14925918]

>>14925903
>So is Australia safe?
What sort of a question is that?

[Anonymous No.14925938]

>>14923037
>now imagine cranking out an entire book about that oversimplification,
This is the sine qua non of pop-science and self-help shit. Taleb is just another in a long line.

[Anonymous No.14925953]

>>14923390
>unexpected things happen
>we don't know how prepared we should be for them so we should be over-prepared if anything
BASED Arab