/smg/ - Stock Market General

[Anonymous No.9612720]

unnecessary extra thread before long weekend edition

Popular brokers for stock trading:
Robinhood
>commission free and no minimum to open
http://www.robinhood.com

> How is it free?
Robinhood earns revenue by collecting interest on cash/securities and fees from their Robinhood Gold service

> It's been X days, why isn't my account verified yet?
Not being approved in 3 days seems to be the new norm. Nevertheless, call/email their support if you've been waiting more than that.

> When is it coming to my country?
The only "plans" are on an Australian and Chinese beta. Neither of which has gained much traction.

Interactive Brokers
>$1 commission per 100 shares. $10k minimum to open, $3k if 25 or under. Lowest margin interest. Free API access
http://www.interactivebrokers.com

TD Ameritade
>$6.95 commission per trade. No minimum to open. Fantastic data/charting through their free ThinkorSwim service
http://www.tdameritrade.com

Degiro (Cheap broker for Europeans)
http://www.degiro.eu

Free in depth charts:
http://www.tradingview.com

Premarket Movers:
http://www.nasdaq.com/extended-trading/premarket-mostactive.aspx

Earnings Report Calendar:
https://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/today.html

Biopharma Catalyst Calendar:
https://biopharmcatalyst.com/

Pump and Dump Advertising:
https://stocktwits.com

S&P 500 VIX Futures (For SVXY/UVXY, higher is better for UVXY, lower is better for SVXY)
https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-vix-futures

Basic rundown on Options:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBAQtjyqNHw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SuTTzfa4ePE

Previous thread: >>9609178

[Anonymous No.9612734]

What's going on with AMRS? Should I continue to hodl or sell that shit?

[Anonymous No.9612740]

The three indices will end in red.

[Anonymous No.9612743]

netflix WILL close below 350

[Anonymous No.9612764]

>Pump it last minute

[Anonymous No.9612771]

Why are treasuries going up?

Should i buy this TTT/TMV dip? or will it continue down?

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9612780]

QQQ will end at 0.0 on the dot.

[Anonymous No.9612785]

TLT puts good idea? or no?

[Anonymous No.9612791]

>>9612734
shhh no tears anon
We are ridig on Buffett-sama's shoulders, we will be fine

[BagholderExtraordinaire !kDjFcJuZkQ No.9612817]

>>9612740
They're going to be as green as a martian.

[Anonymous No.9612823]

>>9612720
>Everything is going down
>Dish Network is increasing
Why do the Bogs torture us?

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9612835]

>>9612785
Yes, good idea. Bond yield shouldn't be lower than 3 right now

[Anonymous No.9612856]

>>9612823
It's 90s meme throwback day

time to go long YHOO and ENRN

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9612857]

Smart money minutes SOON
Get ready for last minute weekender (((BOG)))

[Anonymous No.9612869]

What's the deal with ETH?

[Anonymous No.9612873]

>>9612856
KEK

[Anonymous No.9612889]

Okay, shifted some of my oil money into RTN and LMT calls. Also a TLT put, let's see how this goes. Leaving the rest of my oil bets in place. Ready for the weekend.

[Anonymous No.9612899]

>>9612835
What experiation date should I buy? Really far out?

[Anonymous No.9612910]

>>9612734
By trying to imitate Buffett-sama, AMRS last 10-Q showed a negative working capital and a portion of debt is due within 3 months

Market is thinking there will be very little chance for Melo to meet his obligation without screwing over the shareholders

[Anonymous No.9612929]

>>9612743
well fuck

guess ill stay short into next week then

[Anonymous No.9612932]

[Anonymous No.9612939]

>>9612785
>>9612835
For the current bond pump

The FED is sticking to their initial rate hike plan
And they also said they are willing to let inflation soars a little

Meaning they won't do anything to strenghen the USD
The envisioned rate hikes were priced in
Besides, bonds were heavily shorted so there is some kind of short squeeze
And little Kimmy's tantrum is on the table again

All that makes investors afraid and buy bonds

[BagholderExtraordinaire !kDjFcJuZkQ No.9612943]

TLT opens Tuesday under $118. Screencap this.

[Anonymous No.9612950]

That's the bell!

I'm so close to break-even that I can feel it

you can see on this chart where I started reading this thread

[Anonymous No.9612951]

>>9612929
Stay Gold

[BagholderExtraordinaire !kDjFcJuZkQ No.9612996]

>>9612950
Right after the first dip?

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9613023]

>>9612943
Dank.
I fucking hope so.
That shit is going the wrong fucking way.

[Anonymous No.9613036]

>>9612950
What the hell did you do to lose all that money in the first place? And what did you do to regain it?

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9613049]

>>9613036
This.

[Anonymous No.9613101]

>>9613023
>>9612943
guess ZH is talking about you

[Anonymous No.9613111]

>>9613036
Played options without knowing what I was doing

Played options after knowing what I was doing (also, got lucky on SDRL)

[reluctant kneepad girl No.9613122]

god

this weekend going be so boring no crypto for trade since market going down >.>

[Anonymous No.9613134]

>>9612771
My name already is Nikhijeet but rollin for American fun

[(Comfy) !!7iCGIecbnK/ No.9613141]

End of week SMG podcast is out!
The screen is weird because I tried upping the """quality""" of it, I'll have it fixed by Monday but at least there is more than just one screenshot
Also, rip big5guy, plz come back to us ;_;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFEKSKBa_50&

[Anonymous No.9613150]

>>9613122
go outside?

[Anonymous No.9613190]

>>9613122
Get raped in the showers?

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9613198]

>>9613101
Alright. I like you. High quality shit here.
>US Treasury panic buying
I didn't even realize that was a thing that happens.
>panic buying bonds
lol what the fuck.

Gonna find the article to read that shit.

[(Comfy) !!7iCGIecbnK/ No.9613200]

>>9613190
(((she))) already get's raped on a regular basis, she just get's paid for it

[Anonymous No.9613202]

>>9613141
Hella, thanks Comfy

[Anonymous No.9613218]

>Long SQ
>Short MA
Worked out perfectly
Too scared of V since I actually do see it everywhere.

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9613220]

>>9613122
I think I'm finally going to work on my ML trading algorithm again.
If successful, I'll be posting the output in the future as "tea leaves readings"
I'm genuinely excited if I can make this happen

[Anonymous No.9613228]

>>9613141
>no interviews
He let us down again!

[Anonymous No.9613231]

>>9613122
tell more lewd stories?

[Anonymous No.9613236]

>>9613200
I meant to be constructive.

[Anonymous No.9613247]

is NAK elite?

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9613266]

>>9613122
But yeah, I'm not close enough to anybody that I get any plans for the holidays despite being pretty normie. The normies will all tell me their weekend plans and I just nod.
I know that feel. I'm like an /r9k/ robot wearing a fucking mask.

[(Comfy) !!7iCGIecbnK/ No.9613273]

>>9613228
I'M SORRY, SOON!!!!
The day I had planned it rained and I had to be at class the rest of the time. I'll get it out by next friday or I'll post a pic with a sharpie in my butt

[Texas anon No.9613286]

Got bogged today. Hope the fishing is better

[Anonymous No.9613302]

>>9613198
In fact, there is a logic in the markets
But you have to think like 2 steps ahead

Ultimately bonds will be dumped but now is not the time. I would look for any economic data regarding inflation since FED's dovish stance on it is what cause the bind pump

[Anonymous No.9613313]

>>9613122
Post pictures of your butt?

[Anonymous No.9613322]

>>9613198
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-25/bond-bear-bloodbath-eu-meltdown-sparks-safe-haven-surge

here is the article senpai
it is their usual eod summary

[Anonymous No.9613341]

>>9613286
>he is on ze boat ?
>sink it

[Anonymous No.9613349]

What kinds of stock are good to buy if the US is going to war with Iran?

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9613356]

>>9613302
>>9613322
Thanks a ton!
So are you playing bonds at all? Do you think the panic buying will extend beyond the long weekend?
My puts are for September and January. I've been fucked by theta and bogged enough to stop playing short term options.

[(Comfy) !!7iCGIecbnK/ No.9613374]

Am I making videos to data mine smg? Maybe

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9613377]

>>9613349
Defense contractors.
>DFEN -- 3X ETF
>RTN
>LMT
>NOC
They're good long term holds anyways.

[BagholderExtraordinaire !kDjFcJuZkQ No.9613394]

>>9613356
Wait you don't just grab the cheapest ones OTM that will expire ITM next week?

[Anonymous No.9613405]

>>9613377
This, also: HII

There's only one company in the US that can build nuclear aircraft carriers

[(Comfy) !!7iCGIecbnK/ No.9613410]

>>9613377
>>9613349
Buying defence stocks during a conflict is a giant meme. There is no data to support that def or aerospace companies actually increase during a market crash
If you want to long a conflict, just buy UVXY or another volatility ETN or oil

[BagholderExtraordinaire !kDjFcJuZkQ No.9613412]

>>9613374
I always click on play and then close it after 2 or 3 seconds to intentionally throw off the time statistic.

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9613420]

>>9613273
Don't worry about it, senpai.
Interacting with people is stressful too.
Asking college chicks about short squeezes might be more intimidating than you expect.
Is it at least a big college so that you won't know them?

>>9613374
I've got much worse.
I run a scheduling site for my Alma mater's CS department. It's using Google Analytics and I've got over 1k unique users.
Are you able to see cities, age brackets, and gender on there as well?

[LmaoWeedBro420Blazeit No.9613432]

Bought another 200 shares of canopy today at 34.80$. Get your shorts ready people, I am the bear flag

[(Comfy) !!7iCGIecbnK/ No.9613467]

>>9613412
Stop screwing up my data!! My autism needs that to be accurate!

>>9613420
I can't see the gender data yet, but I'm really excited to see it to see if /smg/ is more or less diverse gender wise than the rest of 4chan

[Anonymous No.9613505]

Man I just feel like ranting. My retarded (IQ honestly about 90 not kidding so only slight exaggeration) brother decided he wanted to become a day trader because he saved up 29K based on working at JC Penney for years rent free because my parents are saints to a absurd degree, and desu IQ apple doesn't fall far from the tree.

I told him to buy JCP so he does but... its 100 shares and it goes up 50 cents. Hey grats on your 100 buck gains shithead.Tell him buy AMD so he does but sells it from 10.05 to 10.30 should have had 13. Then he tries going all in a few times on pennies and BOXL and loses like 6K. Now he is going all in again on BOXL which he had some luck with. Bought at 7.10 now its like 6.70 or whatever.

I am really super furious with him and haven't told him to his face because he tried to keep his day trading a secret to the family so they didn't make him stop. (I am not technically supposed to know this but I logged into his PC to see how he was doing or if he WAS daytrading)

I feel like forcing him to stop by logging into his account changing his password and hoping etrade will let me move his money and then trying to have an intervention but I am afraid he would do something like beat me close to death. He has never been to college or a foreign country, I want him to do something with his life with that money not just throw it into a fire.

I feel like he wants to revenge trade either lose 20K and say fuck it or win with BOXL. Don't know what to do, sadly ETrade doesn't have a gamblers anonymous option so I am kinda fucked.

Short of murder I guess I might just have to watch him lose 29K completely helplessly and it makes me want to cry everyday.

Sorry for the blog but this is theraputic for me, i am in a grief that I can't discuss with anyone because my parents would have to know by me ratting out my brother. I feel like I need to let him see if BOXL doubles in value because I would feel so bad if he was always right and I made him lose 24K.

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9613509]

>>9613394
Fuck no.
I got burned hard on my first attempt to buy that nosedive on FB.
I buy options for no less than 2 months out now.

>>9613410
You mean military conflict, not market crash, right?
I think "geopolitical fears" is common thing that'll spike VIX, so you're probably right.
However, volatility plays are fucking hard to predict. You'd be better off just waiting for VIX to peak and then shorting it than trying to pre-empt the market.
Defense stocks are pretty solid holds overall too though. Seriously, check out NOC. Pretty steady and high growth, even on par with MSFT.

[Anonymous No.9613520]

>>9613505
lol
must suck being the non profitable 90%

[Anonymous No.9613526]

>>9612771
Rolling

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9613532]

>>9613467
>I can't see gender yet
Because the data waits for a proper sample size in order to properly anonymize things.
It's probably just RKG, and you'd be able to see her city.
You probably already know what city big five guy is from with how much info that he has leaked here.

[Anonymous No.9613534]

>>9613356
I tried to play macro bets and always got screwed
But I like trying to guess the logic behind the market's actions
I was the one who said ling JPY, bonds and gold before the FED shitpost

Also, for the time being, USD is dumped
I would recommend going long on emerging markets (particularly Brazil even if there are strikes rn) and asian bonds

[Anonymous No.9613577]

>>9613505
Fuck'm, his fuckup isn't your problem. Keep your head down, do what you have to do to move out. In six months when your folks text you with "did you know that your brother Shitshow gambled away twenty thousand fucking dollars on penny stocks?", act surprised. And when he asks to borrow money from you, tell him you can't spare it, even if you can. Get the fuck out and don't let your family be an anchor.

I'm 30, I went through that same shit ten years ago, only he was selling drugs instead of stocks. Now I'm three states away and when I hear that my brother got arrested or whatever I can just go "gosh, I hope everything turns out okay!" and move on. Don't let him be your problem.

[Anonymous No.9613625]

what now?

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9613637]

>>9613505
I really feel like most of us in this thread aren't all that intelligent or good at trading to begin with.
I feel like a lot of people have to get burned a little to prove to themselves what they've been told.
I chased a DRYS short squeeze really early on, but only with 30 bucks and lost 5.
I wish he would have started with 500 bucks or so instead of going all in.
It definitely would be kind of shitty just to forcefully and completely cut him off from trading.
I'm not good with people, but you might want to just have a talk with him about starting smaller scale with this in order to reduce risk while he gets a hang of it?
But really, what else would he do with the money? I'm fairly comfortable with losing all mine because there's nothing that I'd spend it on -- I simply don't know what I'd buy. He could be in the same boat, but you had a point with how he's living rent free.
Is he literally retarded and incapable of Independence or just a 30 year old NEET situation?

[Anonymous No.9613675]

>>9613374
Prepare to get proxy'd.

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9613711]

>>9613534
>I tried to play macro bets and always got screwed
>But I like trying to guess the logic behind the market's actions
I would highly recommend picking up a high school AP macroeconomics exam prep book.
I only took microeconomics in college and strongly regret never taking macro. Then, I remembered that the books for prepping for AP calculus and AP physics were way better than any shit I read for those college courses, so I bought 2 different AP macroeconomics books.
>I was the one who said ling JPY, bonds and gold before the FED shitpost
I can't into forex and gold. I don't understand how they're related in macro very well.
After reading about the federal reserve and watching the effects of their shitposts and what the bond yield curve inversion does, I've started watching bonds too.
P/E ratio (and CAPE) where good macro trend things for me to follow before I started watching bonds.
>Also, for the time being, USD is dumped
I think getting a hang of strong vs. weak currencies is what's next on my plate.

[reluctant kneepad girl No.9613724]

>>9613150
sun makes internal organs bleed
>>9613190
kek that story happen years ago b4 me illness, body not good enough for make men uncontrollably rape me anymore (for the time being)

>>9613200
been having REALLY hard time with this w/o backpages DESU sempai

>>9613220
wow good luck, you actually understand what you doing? me fuck around with Weka and CCXT and stuff so kinda have some interest here

[reluctant kneepad girl No.9613737]

>>9613505
Wow kek
you making daytrading sound like yo bro dressing up as tranny on weekends and sucking dick fo money

[reluctant kneepad girl No.9613748]

>>9613313
maybe once get back into shap
was not even walking few months ago >.>

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9613762]

>>9613577
My brother is doing some fairly retarded things too.
He's good at math, but decided to major in music instead of going into STEM. I think he wants to get a master's in that shit. My parents forced him to at least double major it with a business degree.
I really just try not to concern myself with it. My parents should be the ones handling it, and if I know something that they don't, I tell them and it's all their choice whether or not to intervene.

[Anonymous No.9613764]

>>9613724
what the fuck

[BagholderExtraordinaire !kDjFcJuZkQ No.9613765]

>>9613675
i ain't got time for that, but if anybody really been so far even as decided to use even go want to do more like one second view?

[Anonymous No.9613813]

>>9613765
I believe you can set up many to run at the same time.

[Anonymous No.9613830]

Predictions for next week. Are we stuck in eternal sideways land? I feel a correction coming though.

[Anonymous No.9613839]

What do you guys think about reits and finance companies in this environment?

[Anonymous No.9613850]

[Anonymous No.9613852]

>>9613839
they are gud

[BagholderExtraordinaire !kDjFcJuZkQ No.9613863]

>>9613830
I'm short brasil and TLT, long QQQ, SPY, IWM, and GDX

[Anonymous No.9613864]

>>9613830
We slow grind bull run.
Don't get phased by red days and hold

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9613885]

>>9613675
YouTube will probably make it hard to use their site through a proxy
>t. Attempted using Google's search engine through Tor

>>9613724
>been having REALLY hard time with this w/o backpages DESU sempai
I heard some people put up with backpages being down by promoting on IG. idk the details that well, but there's a certain way to promote yourself on there that I think is similar to how camgirls will line people up off dating sites or do one of those 4chan -> twitch -> chaturbate pipelines
Even just being a camgirl could be close? Brittany Venti is somehow making money off the /pol/fags and she's not super hot.
>wow good luck, you actually understand what you doing? me fuck around with Weka and CCXT and stuff so kinda have some interest here
Weka is awful. Java is NOT good for ML.
I've actually taken a stab at doing credit card fraud models at work. The results weren't as good as the people who had done it for a decade, but I've picked up a fair share of tricks.
I've worked with scikit-learn for 2 years, and there's actually a couple of pretty solid research papers and sources out there for ML with stock trading.
It's definitely possible to do it really, really well.
Everybody likes to talk about Warren Buffet getting 20% or so ROI for decades on end, but Renaissance Technologies has been over 60% ROI for more than 2 decades IIRC.
So, although it's hard for humans to beat the market, I think it's trivially easy for machines to do so.

[Anonymous No.9613888]

>>9613724
Don't worry, I'd still rape you :)

[Anonymous No.9613903]

>>9613748
post feet

[Anonymous No.9613919]

>>9613724
what illness

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9613952]

>>9613765
Kek. I still have that meme memorized too.

>>9613830
Bonds are going to have to start bleeding sooner or later.
Tech is looking overpriced, but no crash imminent.
I can't predict what SPY or QQQ will do on a one week timeline
>but hopefully my tea leaves reading algorithm will be able to
I do still feel that we will still get a shake up from the feds shitpost (more than a week out) despite it being widely expected by now.

[Anonymous No.9613963]

>>9612771
Rolling

[Anonymous No.9613973]

>>9613410
i'm shocked by this - defence companies stock doesn't rally at the break out of a conflict?

I thought it would at least rally irrationally.

[Anonymous No.9613996]

>>9613885
Tor is a special kind of proxy.

[Anonymous No.9614006]

>>9613952
The Fed literally just said they're not going to raise rates fast for the near future, and set the inflation rate. They did everything short of announcing rate reduction, to stabilize the market. Do you even look at financial websites or news, or do you just make shit up as you go along?

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9614047]

>>9613839
REITs are competing with bonds from what I understand, which are getting better rates.
I think they will tank, along with utilities companies which are also dividend heavy, every rate hike.

>>9613888
>>9613903
>>9613919
The thirst here is kind of funny.

>>9613973
It's comfy. Idk what kind of research he's done to say something like
>there's no data to support that
I'm probably going to keep shilling defense stocks for conflict until I see a good paper telling me what would be better.
I think he's right about TVIX pumping harder, it's just that TVIX isn't as pleasant to hold.

[Anonymous No.9614096]

>>9613505
you need to let him learn

maybe he will be a really good stock trader and this is him cutting his teeth
you dont get to decide his path for him

he could be a professional one day
let him do what he wants with HIS money
fuck

[Anonymous No.9614101]

>>9614047
post feet

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9614109]

>>9613996
Tor does identify itself to websites, but Google can almost certainly tell if you're using a proxy.
Go ahead and try watching YT videos over one, it's just that I'm skeptical of the results.

>>9614006
They have 2 more hikes penciled in for the year. First one is coming in June; I'm skeptical about the second coming soon if the yield curve stays this narrow. Beyond that, yes, they're going to be more lax on the hikes.

[Anonymous No.9614129]

>>9612771
Lol

[Anonymous No.9614137]

>>9614047
what def. stocks or ETF would you recommend?

[Anonymous No.9614139]

Sold my Oil longs today at a loss.
So as NorthKorean deal seams fine for now and Euros will buy Iran oil is it time to go short now?

[Anonymous No.9614173]

>>9614109
The FED sticking to the envisioned rate hike plan IS dovish
For now, there will be no catalyst to for yield to go up. I will monitor any economic data related to inflation

Anything pointing to inflation higher to 2% will prompt speculators dumping bonds again

[Anonymous No.9614174]

>>9613374
Im the american

[Anonymous No.9614178]

>>9614109
My VPN works just fine. I don't care if they know I'm using a proxy I just want to screw his statistics not YouTube's.

[Anonymous No.9614184]

>>9614047
Don't worry, I'd rape you too :)

[(Comfy) !!7iCGIecbnK/ No.9614230]

>>9614174
Wow thanks for all the watch time, really appreciate it

[Anonymous No.9614262]

>>9613374
based Croatians

[Anonymous No.9614312]

>>9614047
>what illness causes the sun to make you bleed internally

HAYHAH THIRDSNDAISNDT

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9614333]

>>9614137
I like LMT and NOC a lot.
One of my friends took a job at NOC, and I've noticed that there's this tendency for companies that are going to do well to have some budget left over to hire more people.
If you have the tolerance for the risk, DFEN is actually one of the best 3X ETFs to hold longer term, and I have actually held it myself for months at a time. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4121068-best-3x-leveraged-etf
However, I took out 12k of Robinhood gold recently and I'm waiting for the next correction before switching back to holding 3X ETFs

>>9614101
>>9614184
Here's my feet :^)

>>9614173
Oh. I see what you mean.
The rate hike is priced in.
I think the yield should be over 3% right now tho, which it's NOT. And it's a retrace against how it should be trending -- perhaps it's a short squeeze. And it's fun and profitable to pack in with the other shorters at the peak of their misery.
I guess that's the sole logic backing my position right now.

[Anonymous No.9614343]

my SPY investment @270 ended up making money even after the initial bogging

[(Comfy) !!7iCGIecbnK/ No.9614351]

>>9614262
>croatians make up .055% of earths population
>make up 2.8% of watch time
WTF I love Croatia (and Belgium, France the Netherlands, and Canada) now!

Also I listed to Market Place Morning Report (the actual podcast put out by public radio) and they talked about the state of the bond market. Apparently, investors are pulling out en mass of developing counties like Turkey, Chile, Pakistan etc and putting that money into long term bonds in the US 10 year yield. That's why even with rising short term interest rates rising, the 10 year yield has actually fallen back below 3% to 2.9%.

[Anonymous No.9614367]

>>9613505
Going all in on benny stocks is a terrible idea. Tell him to pick something safe like OKTA, SHOP, SAIL, or anything that is increasing in intrinsic value. Have him hold it for two weeks then sell it when he makes his ~7%. He needs guidance. The risk is not worth the thought of “well what if I’m right about it doubling??” Still not worth it.
Best to play it safe and make almost guaranteed gains than to have no money at all to make gains with. Please explain this to him.
Montly fool recommends SHOP and NEWR right now. But I would really only recommend SHOP. I expect it to go down maybe another 4% roughly, than to start shooting up. Could make 30% over four months if he’s just patient.

[Anonymous No.9614384]

>>9614351
>>9614262
>average percentage viewed: 117%
how can one country be so based?

[Anonymous No.9614389]

>>9614351
why would the bogs want 10 year T bills?
seriously i dont understand that at all

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9614392]

>>9614351
I'm surprised you aren't getting any weird Russian traffic. Maybe that's just for websites.
I get a ton of weird Russian traffic.

>Apparently, investors are pulling out en mass of developing counties like Turkey, Chile, Pakistan etc and putting that money into long term bonds in the US 10 year yield. That's why even with rising short term interest rates rising, the 10 year yield has actually fallen back below 3% to 2.9%.
Well I fucking knew that shit was acting funny.
The only question is how long and how far the meltdown will go.
This is why my puts are for multiple months out.

[Anonymous No.9614399]

//comfy// needs to make the volume louder on ther podcast

After turning on a new video (volume full blast thanks to Comfy vid), it blasted into my ears, very painful!

[Anonymous No.9614412]

>>9613432
Nice. Monday should get a bounce.

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9614422]

>>9614399
Then turn down the volume, weeb
It seemed fine to me.

[Anonymous No.9614436]

>>9613141
big5 goy got banned? top fucking kek
anyone have a screenie?

[(Calculated Gamble) !!yNaZM+ufCLW No.9614437]

>>9614333
I put like 14 grand on NOC and DFEN two days ago when you mentioned them. So far I'm down 12 dollars.

[Anonymous No.9614441]

>>9614422
nah, Im suing Comfy for ear damage

[Anonymous No.9614448]

>>9614109
My gut tells me the market is going to react negatively towards these rate hikes in June.
I think I’ll pull out by June 6th. Dump-Day.

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9614450]

>>9614412
>Monday
You mean Tuesday, right?
I hope that was a typo and you know the market is closed on Monday.

>>9614333
Forgot pic
>>9614101

[Anonymous No.9614454]

>>9614448
rate hikes have been priced in since literally 2008

[Anonymous No.9614476]

>>9614454
It was my understanding that these would be an anomaly of some kind, no?

[Anonymous No.9614486]

>>9614476
nope, you were wrong!

[Anonymous No.9614499]

>>9614450
holy fuck cute

[Anonymous No.9614518]

>>9612771
poo roll

[Anonymous No.9614537]

>>9614384
To have a reason to sell out stock

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9614555]

>>9613141
Pic attached is Trump's letter that caused the autistic screaming.
It's a good read.
The podcast was well meme'd. I liked "2 nukes weren't enough index" and I may genuinely incorporate the retardation index as input into my tea leaves reader sometime after I start getting results from it.
That FIT put will be a good hedge against FAANG overvaluation. It totally could be the next thing that gets corrected. I'm not optimistic if it's a short term put tho.

>>9614448
This.
Where the last rate hikes this year (((priced in))) too? If so, the market still reacted poorly to the news.

>>9614454
Kek.

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9614562]

>>9614555
Shit. Forgot to attach pic again.

[Anonymous No.9614572]

>>9612771
rol

[Anonymous No.9614613]

>>9614562
>You talk about your nuclear capabilities, but ours are so massive and powerful that I pray to God they will never have to be used.

F U C K I N G

B A S E D

[Anonymous No.9614698]

>>9613885
>So, although it's hard for humans to beat the market, I think it's trivially easy for machines to do so.

You couldn't be more wrong. Predicting market movements has long been considered to be one of the hardest problems in machine learning.

[Anonymous No.9614731]

why would you want to beat the market when you could BE the market?

buy SPY

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9614735]

>>9614613
It's really a fascinating letter.
There's so much quotable shit in there.

>>9614499
Oh. I'm a dude, btw.

>>9613322
Fucking shit.
It looks like shorting TLT might be crowded enough that my puts will fuck me over with IV like with SDRL again.
I checked the break even price, and idk if it's probable. I was planning to just flip them instead of letting them expire anyways, but shit. I'll at least learn something here if this trade doesn't work out.

[Anonymous No.9614793]

>>9614735
Trump is surely the only western leader who knows what negotiations are all about : gains and leverages
As for your treasuriy bet, think of the FED dovish stance as potentially more USD to be available on the market, which means assets will be bid
Equities, bonds and gold (and maybe crypto... this may be the huge thing since derivatives were invented)
Going long emerging markets and asian debts maybe a good idea

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9614797]

>>9614698
You are correct that it's hard, but it's been done.
I did overstate that this would be an easy thing.
It won't be easy. It's not trivial.
I meant to say that it's easier for machines to beat the market than humans.
And my goal isn't to "predict the market" which seems to implying knowing the daily movements -- instead I'm just going to predict direction or the most likely greatest movers.

>>9614731
>Why would you want more money when you could just have less money?

[Anonymous No.9614829]

>>9614797
your hubris will be your downfall as I grow richer

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9614855]

>>9614829
Read up on Renaissance Technologies. The Wikipedia page is good.
https://youtu.be/ta41xU-tkFA

[Anonymous No.9614864]

>>9614797
>You are correct that it's hard, but it's been done.

I know that it has been done because I have done it myself with very usable results.

>And my goal isn't to "predict the market" which seems to implying knowing the daily movements

Predicting a day out or a month out is still predicting. I've done best making predictions in the 7 to 30 day range. Anything less than that and the signal gets lost in the noise. At least for what I'm doing.

[BagholderExtraordinaire !kDjFcJuZkQ No.9614891]

>>9614613
>You talk about your nuclear capabilities, but ours are so massive
Translation: 난 당신보다 더 큰 성기를 가지고

[Anonymous No.9614924]

>>9612823
>>9612791
What I find hillarious about /biz/smg/ is that usually the stocks that get shilled the least make the most money while the rest just end up screaming over bagholding meme stocks.

[BagholderExtraordinaire !kDjFcJuZkQ No.9615016]

>>9614924
Yeah when you see a ton of pink wojacks posted just buy spy calls and wait.

[Anonymous No.9615044]

>>9614450
How to rape feet?

[Anonymous No.9615068]

>>9614486
Sad!

[Anonymous No.9615100]

>>9614450
>You mean Tuesday, right?

No I meant Monday. TSX is open on Monday. Only burger exchanges are closed. I dunno wtf CGC will do on the NYSE on Tuesday. Monday tho. Monday should be green.

[Anonymous No.9615135]

>>9613505
Isn't it illegal to do what you are describing what you want to do? I mean going onto his etrade and transfering his money.

He has got to get his gains baby slapped around from his stupid mistakes and learn the hard way. Sorry bro but nature says sink or swim.

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9615152]

>>9614864
>I have done it myself
Have you tried trading off the results?
What did you use? RNN or SVM?

[Anonymous No.9615177]

>>9614924
because us real nigga traders are confident in their investments while pajeet bots are run by desperate bagholders

[Anonymous No.9615183]

>>9612771

[Anonymous No.9615212]

>>9615152

I've been running a live system based on my ml work since 1/1/2016. I consider it to be a high probability trading system where the probabilities I work with are provided by libsvm (and sometimes gpu-libsvm).

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9615225]

>>9614924
That's why I've started watching the consumer discretionaries from Nico / Nikkei poster
I don't post any of my big money makers on here because I only touch them once every month or two.

>>9615044
I'm a dude btw

>>9615100
>TSX
Intredasting.

>>9615177
HMNY and SDRL were fun. I like using the memes as learning moments.
I was correct about the price movement on both, but the heavy IV fucked me over. This taught me not to /all in/ on TLT puts today despite it being very obvious that they're overbought as fuck.
Going all in on that meme shit is fucking retarded though.

[Anonymous No.9615264]

What do you guys think about micron?

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9615291]

>>9615212
>I've been running a live system based on my ml work since 1/1/2016.
Very nice. Is it a side thing or is it becoming your main source of income?
>I consider it to be a high probability trading system where the probabilities I work with are provided by libsvm (and sometimes gpu-libsvm).
>probabilities
My plan is to possibly separate it into two classes at a percentile like 3% up for the month possibly instead of just 0% for up vs. down, and then play with the scew so that it only outputs a few things with very high confidence.
>libsvm
I've heard good things about that. I'm not glued to an SVM approach.
Have you ever heard of the "Random Kitchen Sinks" trick? I've never gotten it to work, but I think it's very promising for getting good results with too much data for nonlinear SVMs to traditionally handle.

[Anonymous No.9615299]

>>9615225
Obviously, we already knew all of you are dudes. Do you regret posting your feet as much as you regret not buying Ruger one week ago?

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9615318]

>>9615299
>Ruger
No. Looks like shit.
Why didn't you buy AOBC instead?

[Anonymous No.9615492]

>>9615264

$100 EOY

Unironicly Put half my life savings into it.

[Anonymous No.9615642]

Awww man, if comfy doesn't pull through on the /smg/ podcast I say somebody else pull through on making 'em
fuck man, get any anons that wanna run a segment and put 'em together on the /smg/ report or something, them videos were a glimmer of some quality entertainment for the general

[Anonymous No.9615756]

>>9612771

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9615779]

>>9615212
Oh come on, you can't just drop in and tease me like that.
Do you really have no interest in discussing this further?

[Anonymous No.9615790]

>>9612720
oh who is this 2d qt?

hope we see an AMD pullback next week, want to reposition at $12

[Anonymous No.9615803]

>>9615291
>Is it a side thing or is it becoming your main source of income?

It's just a hobby. I'm a retired applied mathematician.

>My plan is to possibly separate it into two classes at a percentile like 3% up for the month possibly instead of just 0% for up vs. down, and then play with the scew so that it only outputs a few things with very high confidence.

You're definitely on the right track. I've found that things are still a bit muddy at +/-3%, but it really starts to come together in the +/-4-5% range as far as usable probabilities are concerned.

>too much data for nonlinear SVMs to traditionally handle.

libsvm handles the datasets I am using very nicely, but I use gpu-libsvm for larger datasets that bog down the traditional libsvm. It's worth looking at if you run into that problem.

[Anonymous No.9615849]

>>9615790
superior announcer anime girl coming through

[Anonymous No.9615879]

>>9615790
Nah, it’s going up. My calls are making me rich.

[Anonymous No.9616026]

>>9615849
>furshit

[reluctant kneepad girl No.9616137]

>>9616026
They just ears damnit

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9616183]

>>9615803
>It's just a hobby. I'm a retired applied mathematician.
Did you do any machine learning professionally?
It's kind of where I want to go with my career, but I'm thinking it's kind of unrealistic without getting a Master's.
I'm pretty satisfied with just doing it in my spare time for now.
>You're definitely on the right track. I've found that things are still a bit muddy at +/-3%, but it really starts to come together in the +/-4-5% range as far as usable probabilities are concerned.
I haven't even gotten a chance to play with where I'd set that at yet. I would've hunted for it with a grid search on that along with skew -- which I see libsvm actually has a parameter for handling! I've just been playing with skew by downsampling so far.
But I wasn't planning to even touch that until I get better results with my feature engineering.

Thanks for telling me that you're going for the 7-30 day prediction range.
My results with 1 day out prediction are only a few percent accuracy greater than a coin flip, and I was feeding it Open-High-Low-Close data for the last 5 days (scaled to be relative to the 50 and 200 day sma so the number would be meaningful to the SVM across different stocks).
I thought it would start picking up on candlestick patterns internally, but I'm totally going to abandon that approach for now.
I found a research paper a while ago that had something like 30 features for an SVM, including fundamental analysis and technical analysis for the features.
I'm probably just going to copy off that, add a few more parameters and scaling tricks, then play with the skew.

[Anonymous No.9616190]

Anyone investing from Australia?

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9616214]

>>9615803
>libsvm handles the datasets I am using very nicely, but I use gpu-libsvm for larger datasets that bog down the traditional libsvm. It's worth looking at if you run into that problem.

I've kind of used a really small dataset so far, since I'm just starting out.
Last time I took a crack at this, I got the data from quantopian, but now I want to take it off the platform and use data from ycharts or stockrow.
I heard quandl is really good, but it's paid, so I'll just start with what's free.
Where did you get good data from?

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9616250]

>>9615803
Thanks a TON for talking to me about this btw!

My coworkers either hate stocks or hate ML, and none of them are entrepreneurially minded.
And then /biz/ is /biz/ and /g/ is /g/. So, only kaggle or research papers have been able to give me any info.

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9616434]

>>9616190
We definitely have an international croud here.
You might have better luck during market hours for Australia.
This general thread is pretty dead on the weekend and most US posters are really active from about an hour before open to at least an hour after close (US times).
A lot of Europeans were posting this morning about an hour or two before US open

[Anonymous No.9616459]

>>9616190
Nah but my investments are sure going
>down under

[Anonymous No.9616669]

>>9616459

LMAO

[Texas anon No.9616829]

Well fuck. Got bogged fishing too. Guess I’ll shitpost with you guys Tuesday.

[Anonymous No.9617060]

>>9616183
>Did you do any machine learning professionally?

Only in a limited fashion. I studied it in grad school, but my career took off in a different direction. I spent a lot of time reading and catching up after I retired.

>I found a research paper a while ago that had something like 30 features for an SVM,

When I start building a model for a new symbol, I start off with over 500 features. Then I apply PCA to trim that down by about half. There is such a thing as overkill when it comes to the number of features you use, but this works well for me. You'll need to experiment with your own dataset to see what works best for your models.

>Where did you get good data from?

I wrote an interface to the Interactive Brokers API and I pull all of my historical data from there.

>Thanks a TON for talking to me about this btw!

You're welcome. I quit talking about it for a long time because of the abuse. There are a lot of people out there who have never tried it, but are quick to tell you that it won't work or that it takes a room full of quants to do it. I've gained enough experience and had enough success with it now that I no longer give a shit what the naysayers think.

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9617291]

>>9617060
>When I start building a model for a new symbol, I start off with over 500 features. Then I apply PCA to trim that down by about half. There is such a thing as overkill when it comes to the number of features you use, but this works well for me. You'll need to experiment with your own dataset to see what works best for your models.
I was curious about whether you were using PCA!
I've never really used it before, but I know the value it provides for high dimensionality.
>When I start building a model for a new symbol
By symbol, do you mean stock ticker?
Do you build a model unique for each security?

>I wrote an interface to the Interactive Brokers API and I pull all of my historical data from there.
Thanks!

>There are a lot of people out there who have never tried it, but are quick to tell you that it won't work
That's fucking heresy.
Well, it's true that ML doesn't "work" (joke from a satirical paper http://oneweirdkerneltrick.com/rank_slides.pdf)) -- quite literally the accuracy is under 100% -- but it works damn better than humans do.
I've read the latest stuff Google uses for image recognition in self driving cars is more accurate at recognizing objects than humans are. This isn't vaporware.

>or that it takes a room full of quants to do it. I've gained enough experience and had enough success with it now that I no longer give a shit what the naysayers think.
Even among data scientists where I work, some of them are super tinfoil-hat-y about using neural networks and start screeching about overfitting whenever someone attempts to use one, even if the testing set is clearly separate from the training set.

[Warlord !7NKHRYrRzI No.9617386]

>>9612771
rollan for 00

[Anonymous No.9617629]

>>9617291
>By symbol, do you mean stock ticker?

Yes. In actuality, when I refer to my overall model for a given ticker symbol, I am referring to a collection of 144 SVMs that have been separately trained to answer slightly different questions and then organized to paint a bigger picture.

[Anonymous No.9617738]

>>9615790
https://twitter.com/wakasanoshito/status/992229515714691072
original artist credit

[Anonymous No.9617809]

>>9615225
>I'm a dude btw
Perfect

>>9617060
Really interesting information, I'm fascinated by ML.
I've been thinking about going back to grad school for a data science degree do you think that would be a good idea?
Right now I'm in the IT audit practice at a B4, but been feeling that the "value add" isn't there even for internal audit engagements.

[Texas anon No.9617820]

>>9612771
Rawl

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9617897]

>>9617629
>Yes. In actuality, when I refer to my overall model for a given ticker symbol, I am referring to a collection of 144 SVMs that have been separately trained to answer slightly different questions and then organized to paint a bigger picture.
Oh god, that's a lot of SVMs.
I was definitely planning on having a multiple model approach too, and it oddly seems uncommon online.
But, my approach would involve all stocks being on the same model, but the different models being adjusted by skew.
The model would have features to help differentiate the behavior of the different securities -- alpha, beta, sector, market cap size, P/E ratio.
And possibly additionally separating the models by industry (semiconductors, tech, consumer discretionaries) later on if it proved to improve results.
I think I was also planning on including data on bonds, the general market, sector ETFs, maybe even VIX as training data as well for the model alongside the features for a security itself -- got this idea after seeing how the market reacted to a rate hike earlier this year and recalling how correlated the bond yield curve is with recessions.
A stock might be a good price, but it's still going down if everybody is ripe for a panic sell.

[Anonymous No.9618267]

Any thoughts on tech stocks? Nvidia, AMD, Intel?

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9618276]

>>9618267
Intel has no growth to it.
AMD might...
NVDA I'm still holding and will probably never let go.

[Anonymous No.9618304]

>>9612771
lets go

[2 scoops !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.9618315]

>>9618267
NVDA built a fucking moat around their product with CUDA.
GPUs are going to grow in popularity, and I think CUDA is going to keep NVDA entrenched as king.

AMD I heard might be getting competitive with having better CPUs than Intel. Intel has the best compiler in the world, which gives it a bit of a moat like NVDA.

[Anonymous No.9618402]

>>9618276
>>9618315

Thanks dude I'll take a closer look at AMD and NVDA

[Anonymous No.9618413]

>>9618402
>I'll take a closer look at AMD
the meme claims another

[Anonymous No.9618449]

>>9618413
Hey now, I only said look =D

[Anonymous No.9618475]

Normally I'm against investing in medical related stocks but buy cel sci when it drops below 3.00 again and hold

[Anonymous No.9618781]

>>9612771
I want to be a Rajeesh.