[ 3 / biz / cgl / ck / diy / fa / ic / jp / lit / sci / vr / vt ] [ index / top / reports ] [ become a patron ] [ status ]
2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance

View post   
File: 224 KB, 920x562, 635352.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
9078205 No.9078205 [Reply] [Original]

Will interest rates for mortgages go lower or should I try buying as quick as possible now?

>> No.9078374

They will continue to rise steadily op. The only thing that would lower them now is if the housing bubble bursts. Some say that it is very unlikely that it will happen anytime soon, others say it will happen within 2-5 years. You gotta decide for yourself ultimately

>> No.9078414

>>9078205
unironically buy a house with 30 y fixed mortgage ASAP if you want to buy a house

housing market supply is very tight and interest rates are rising

>> No.9078467

Rates will rise, prices will fall

>> No.9078492

>>9078467
prices absolutely will not fall

>> No.9078565

>>9078467
>being this retarded on biz
I guess we come to expect it at this point.

>> No.9079190

>>9078205
Rates are rising which means affordability is going to gown down which means prices will come down. The prices you see today are from 0% interest rates for 10 fucking years.

>> No.9079221

>>9078414

30 year fixed are approaching 5%, while 7/1 are still ~4% if you can get a good deal, just get a 7/1 and pay it off in 7 years if the rate gets too high.

>> No.9079321

>>9078467
This.

Housing might be the worst investment in the world right now. Deflationary collapse of all asset prices is coming when the currency crisis hits.

Current Dow to gold ratio is like 22-1

Historically that is 4-1.

Buy gold. Wait for deflationary collapse and a gold revaluation overnight to multiples higher than it is right now.

Then you can buy a home outright for like 2 -5 ounces of gold.

>> No.9079355

>>9078492
>2007

>> No.9079364

>>9079190
This times 1000

You can't have interest rates artificially suppressed at 0% for a fucking decade and not have it end in economic ruin.

Stay far fuckinf away from housing and buy gold and silver.

Buying a home right now is like buying bitcoin at its ATH.

>> No.9079385

You house buying cuck anons NEED to not invest in real estate and buy gold. It's all going to come tumbling down.

>> No.9079391

I can't believe there are idiots in this thread
>>9078565
>>9078492
That don't understand this simple concept.

>> No.9079394

>>9079321

You really don't understand economics if you think deflation would lead to gold increasing in value.

But the fed will literally be printing $1T/year soon, and you are worried about deflation? Lmao.

>> No.9079398

>>9079355
kek

yes OP, fomo into a bubble 10x bigger than crypto

>> No.9079415

>>9078205
They are only going to go up from here unless we get a financial crisis.

>> No.9079435

>>9078374
younger generations coming out of college with mortgage sized loans. it'll crash in 2021 when the student loan bubble blows up

>> No.9079439

>>9079190
>>9078467
Yep, this is the correct interpretation

>>9078492
take a fucking macroeconomics course

>> No.9079457

>>9079321
Lol has this become pasta? This nigga really thinks someone will sell a house for a shiny fucking coin. Even Jesus can’t save this brainlet

>> No.9079521

>>9079364
I can't wait for the boomers to get absolutely fuckin rekt. I can feel it coming. I was actually looking for houses when I was wagecukcing and one of the managers at my company had just trransfered in 2016- by 2017 his house had doubled in value. Right then I quit looking.

I uniroincally think 1 btc will by you a decent single family home in most American cities in 2020. Wagies are gonna be posting pink wojaks everywhere. I can't wait to go shopping once the bottom falls out and make insulting offers to bagholders.

>> No.9079540

If you wonder why interest rates will effect housing. You just have to realize most people are fucking sheeps that only look at the monthly payments.

Going from 4%-6% interest rates is an automatic 20% drop in housing prices just on affordability. A 1 million dollar house at 4% costs the same as a 800,000 house at 6%.

>> No.9080004

>>9078467
>>9079190
>>9079540

You guys are confusing the cause for the effect. Interest rates don't determine prices, prices determine interest rates. Because interest rates are of course controlled entirely now by the federal reserve who is simply choosing to raise rates due to a strong economy. Rising prices are an indicator of a strong economy. The only reason interest rates are rising is because prices are rising. Actually the idea of rates being on an uptrend in the next couple years will drive demand even more due to buyers wanting to lock in low rates.

The entire system is literally rigged to make sure prices will always go up. If you are trying to be a smug cunt and buy a housing dip, its probably going to only happen in the weakest of economies when you yourself are least financial able to buy. And the dips are not very big, or last very long. A lot of rich people bought houses in 2008 and made good money, but they were investing in severely affected markets. the average house in strong markets only dropped 10-20% if any at all. While if you bought the peak in 2007 in a strong market you would have still made 2-3x since the GFC.

>> No.9080863

>>9078205
This picture is depressing.

>> No.9081117

>>9080004
>Because interest rates are of course controlled entirely now by the federal reserve who is simply choosing to raise rates due to a strong economy
Just no. US productivity just recently hit its peak 2008 levels again, the economy isn't "strong". Rates are being raised because they postponed it too long and if this cycle ends soon they won't be able to lower them since they're already almost zero.

>> No.9081125

>>9078205
just lol @ american culture.

>> No.9081159

The level of stupid in this thread is astounding

>> No.9081208

>>9081159
You just raised it twofold with your useless high-horsing

>> No.9081220

>>9078492
>>9078565

>interest rates will go up, less people will be able to borrow, but somehow more people will be buying houses making the prices go up

/biz/ wisdom

>> No.9081304

>>9081220
i think hes talking about shitskins moving in bro

>> No.9081323
File: 8 KB, 185x273, 1495332104177.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
9081323

>>9078492
>prices absolutely will not fall

t. boomer

>> No.9081399
File: 616 KB, 1160x3292, housing prices.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
9081399

>>9080004
>interest rates are of course controlled entirely now by the federal reserve who is simply choosing to raise rates due to a strong economy
>due to a strong economy

kek

>> No.9081425

>>9080004

They aren't simply choosing to raise rates, they have to do it otherwise inflation could spiral out of control, you can see it clearly in Krugman's AA-DD model how interest rates have to be raised in the money market if you don't want inflation in the goods and services market.

The only reason average house prices only dropped 10-20% was because the government bought all those mortgages, you might say they could do it again, but then they would have to go to negative interest rates, and that's risky to say the least.

>> No.9081463

>>9078205

yearly price of "owning" a home in Land of The Free™

>pay $30,000 mortgage
>pay $10,000 property tax
>pay $6,000 electricity/water
>pay $5,000 maintenance/repairs
>pay $4,000 HOA fees
>pay $3,000 home insurance
>pay $15,000 health insurance
>pay $10,000 student loans
>pay $10,000 pension you will never live to see
>miss a payment? go homeless

>> No.9081479

>>9078414
>be freedumb loving Texan
>own an overvalued home
>tax assessor is corrupt
>pay 2000 a month in property taxes for a home that should be close to 1000
>have many sleepless nights about what do
>be living paycheck to paycheck

I owe over 200k in student debt, im stuck making around 60k for the next 4 years.
just end my life senapi

>> No.9081513

>>9079521
mortgage on a $500k house is $3k-$4k a month = $36k/yr + $10k property tax + $12k expenses =
~ $70k yr
you hold it for 5yrs = $350k
thats $850k
you sell for $1mill, your profit is $100k (after tax)

>> No.9081515

>>9080004
Goddamn. You're too smart to post here.

There are very few housing US markets that won't continue to experience steady growth in the next 20 years.
The exceptions are markets like San Francisco or Seattle (and their suburbs) that are in a bubble because of the tech industry.

The legislation Trump has signed into office make it more difficult to buy a house. The tax plan removes some benefits from first time buyers, while the tariffs and other tax incentives punish new construction. Meanwhile, with current economic forces, jobs will continue to be concentrated into the cities, look at LA as an harbinger example.

The only things that will make prices drop are absolute catastrophe. As in fundamental meltdown of a functional government, openly declared war, or a complete credit freeze. In which case, the few remaining rich people will be snatching up the real estate as quick as possible.

So, maybe the silver lining is, if you want to buy property in some godforsaken part of Tennessee or Montana or Idaho, wait just a little bit, prices will drop when all other viable income has ceced. If you want a house within 5 miles of a grocery store, buy now.

>> No.9081574

>>9079321
>Historically that is 4-1.

Gold is old tech, buy Bitcoin

>> No.9081596

>>9081515
QE bubble thats propping up the entire ponzi scheme


https://medium.com/@matt_11659/matt-barrie-australias-economy-is-a-house-of-cards-6877adb3fb2f

>> No.9081738

>>9081596
This. And when it comes to interest rates, unlike the burgers we can generally only fix up to 5 years. If you wanted to bet on interest rates / against housing we would be worth a good look.

>> No.9081768

>>9078205
why don't burgers have fences?

>> No.9081898

>>9081738
>>9081738

The prolonged program of quantitative easing has sent asset prices soaring, even if traditional signs of inflation are muted.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-01-11/why-we-have-to-talk-about-a-bubble
The economy has grown through a property bubble inflating on top of a commodities bubble, driven by a China bubble, on top of a QE bubble.


This process was called “quantitative easing” (“QE”), to confuse the average person in the street into thinking it wasn’t anything more than conjuring trillions of dollars out of thin air and using that money to buy things in an effort to drive their prices up.

This money printing has lasted so long that the US economic cycle is imminently due for another downturn- the average length of each economic cycle in the U.S. is roughly 6 years. By the time the next crisis hits, there will be very few levers left for central banks to pull without getting into some really funny business.

>> No.9081947

>>9081898

What do you think will happen for regular US citizens if something along those lines were to happen?

Society collapsing? Wars?

>> No.9081959

>>9079221
Pay off 300k in 7 years?

>> No.9081966

Also, I need a real answer here.

Is gold & silver a good investment?

Or is guns/ammo/food/& land?

>> No.9081975

>>9081898
This cycle is reaching its 10th birthday. Interesting fact, about 10 years is the longest cycle we've had in the last 100 years. Will we make a record, and what reason do we have to expect a change in the pattern this time? Lots of people seem to be really confident on the economy keeping on chugging as it is.

>> No.9082001

>>9081975
>Lots of people seem to be really confident on the economy keeping on chugging as it is.

as they were before every crash. normies dont know what the fuck is going on

>> No.9082049

>>9082001
Indeed, it's jarring how people can learn a hard lesson about reality and in just a couple of years go back to the same misguided views as if nothing ever happened. It's like a macro version of moths flying into a lamp and getting burned

>> No.9082060

>>9081947
we will just resemble the 3rd world more and more. something like haiti or ukraine. the oligarchs will still be on top and continue to reign like kings over serfs.

tbf, we have been under fraudulent boom cycles for the past few decades. you have to view the economy in the context of globalisation and hyperinflation of assets as a measure to decline.

prior to 2000, gas was 1 a gallon for ages. then drastically went to $3-4 a gallon

what happened?
>peak oil ponzi scheme

fabricated peak oil propaganda is a creation of oil mafia to gouge oil prices


>globalisation ponzi scheme funded by your savings
>peak oil scam

((they)) crashed the economy to recruit youth into the afgan/iraq war without a draft. job opportunities for military aged men were intentionally depressed in order to send them to fight.


prior to 2000, avg house price was 2X avg income, then it drastically went to 10X avg income

>housing scam resulting in the 2007 bubble

the depressed economy was propped up by a housing bubble. the govt and financial institutions provided a "bail out" to the people in the form of low interest rates and lax regulations. the lack of job opportunities in the depressed economy forced people to exploit new career incentives created by financial institutions and govt focused on real estate speculation. with everyone speculating in real estate through "free money", the bubble burst.

>> No.9082118

>>9082060

You sound like the guy StormCloudsGathering on YouTube.

Any advice on if Gold or Silver is good investment?

>> No.9082141

>>9078374
>others say it will happen within 2-5 years
t. analyst at megabank

>> No.9082175

>>9082060
>>9081898
>>9081947
to understand the situation, you must look at the real indicators of economy and society and not the stock market:

STUDY BY MIT ECONOMIST: U.S. HAS REGRESSED TO A THIRD WORLD NATION

https://www.themaven.net/theintellectualist/news/study-by-mit-economist-u-s-has-regressed-to-a-third-world-nation-for-most-of-its-citizens-FJSOA2u3T0iE7phfBAT3DQ

Americans Are Retiring Later, Dying Sooner and Sicker In-Between
https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/01/american-life-expectancy-declined-again-elite-care-more-about-trump-tweets/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/life-expectancy-for-white-americans-declines-1461124861
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-23/americans-are-retiring-later-dying-sooner-and-sicker-in-between


https://www.wsj.com/articles/life-expectancy-for-white-americans-declines-1461124861
Average UK life expectancy falls
New trend could ease pension deficit pressure for UK companies
http://archive.is/iWA6Q

Health department 'ignoring UK life expectancy decline
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/feb/21/health-department-ignoring-uk-life-expectancy-concerns

http://blog.sevenponds.com/something-special/decrease-life-expectancy-impact-pensions


Life Expectancy Declines Among Americans for Second Year
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2017/12/life-expectancy/548981/

U.S. Suicide Rate Surges to a 30-Year High
(((pure coincidence)))


technically, we collapsed and never recovered

>> No.9082230

>>9082060
from January 2000 to July 2006, during Bush NWO leader's Housing Bubble, home prices surged 900%

Avg price of house around 1998 before globalisation and free-trade went full swing
>$180k in NYC (boros)
>$170k in SF
>$150k in LA
>$120k in DC
>$140k in Sydney
>$120k in Melbourne
>$140k in Toronto
>$130k in Vancouver
>£50k in London


Avg price of house after 2004 massive free-trade/open-borders
>$800k in NYC (boros)
>$1m in SF
>$600k in LA
>$500k in DC
>$900k in Sydney
>$700k in Melbourne
>$600k in Toronto
>$1m in Vancouver
>£1m in London
---------------------------------------------------------
before free trade:
>domestic production of goods
>goods were affordable and of high quality
>lowest cost of living
>affordable housing (house costs only 2 times the annual salary)
>90% white

after free trade:
>homeless/opiod/suicide epidemic/white genocide
>unemployment
>highest cost of living
>unaffordable housing (10-20 times the annual salary)
>plummeting life expectance
>shit quality products that kill you
>millions of illegal shitskin locusts invading and killing whites

>> No.9082265

GUYS!!!!!!!!!!!!

GOLD

SILVER

GUNS

PROPERTY

WHICH ONES?????

>> No.9082335

>>9081966
crashes are artificial and happen when the oligarchs decide its time.

no modern technological society can stop the supply of food or labor, but certain trade and financial policies and laws can make people unemployed, homeless, starving like much of the US

the supply of food, labor, and shelter is a constant in industrial society.

in technological society, there wont be catastrophic starvation when a speculative economy crashes (since the wealth was artificially created).

whether there is a crash or not, there will always be food, labor, and shelter for the entire population. the only thing that denies people access to this are laws and financial policies based on speculation and artificial risk allocation- thus creating "crash"/depression conditions

our entire production of food and sustenance is based on technology, so there wont be any ethiopian-tier famines. we will just delve deeper into 3rd world serfdom.

the pleb-tier people least affected by crashes have historically been the amish, so learn from them and take their advice

>> No.9082447

>>9080004
>Fed raises rates due to a strong economy.

imagine being this naive

>> No.9082479

>>9082265
all

>> No.9082505

>>9082230
>>9082060

According to wolframalpha 3.3k 1950's USD when scaled for inflation equates to about 34k today. Notice that the median home went from 2x family income to nearly 10x family income. That is untenable and will lead to loss of social cohesion.

before 2000s/bush NWO/globalisation, the US has ALWAYS had avg housing price = 2X avg salary

90s was the last decade of traditional american housing market (that spanned across centuries), with a house costing 2X avg salary even in metro areas such as NYC/LA/SF.
90s were in fact the last decade of american lifestyle, middle class, and the american dream

>> No.9082755

>>9082505
>>9082230
www.thepeoplehistory.com/1960s.html

1940:
The average family income: $2,000
The average car cost: $850
The median home price: $4,000


1950:
The average family income: $3,300
The average car cost: $1,510
The median home price: $7,000
University of Pennsylvania annual tuition was $600:

Home price / income = 2.2
Car cost / income = .45
Tuition / income = .18


1960:
The average family income: $5,300
The average car cost: $2,000
The median home price: $12,000

1970:
The average family income: $9,000
The average car cost: $3,000
The median home price: $18,000

1980:
The average family income: $18,000
The average car cost: $5,000
The median home price: $55,000


1990:
The average family income: $29,000
The average car cost: $8,000
The median home price: $120,000

1999:
The average family income: $40,000
The average car cost: $16,000
The median home price: $130,000


2010:
The average family income: $42,000
The average car cost: $20,000
The median home price: $280,000


2017:
The average family income: $48,000
The average car cost: $30,000
The median home price: $380,000

>> No.9082768

>>9081463
>get assraped by mortgage
>get assraped by property taxes
>get assraped by speculative bubbles
>get assraped by demographic replacement of formerly white hoods
>get assraped by utilities
>get assraped by HOAs
>get assraped by contractors
>get assraped by student loans
>get assraped by health insurance

the crapitalist system makes the Soviet system look like utopia in comparison

>free housing, free education, free healthcare
>no mortgage
>no property tax
>no utility fees
>no bubbles
>no contractors
>no demographic replacement
>no HOAs

i want USSR back!

>> No.9082797

>>9082335
the issue with crapitalism is the crapitalist is preoccupied with offloading the burden of enslavement onto the next goy. the entire society is built on a pyramid of offloading enslavement onto someone else.

instead of having stable shelter with no risk, the crapitalist allocates risk into living necessities (shelter, food, etc) that is burdened onto the renter. the entire system is preoccupied by transferring risk to others.

the communist model does not allocate risk into living necessities (shelter etc..) and guarantees a stable shelter, food, and frees the population from preoccupation of risk and fear.

with the emancipation from preoccupation of risk allocation of the crapitalist system, the communist population focuses on solving space colonisation and real world issues, instead of the basic shelter issues

>> No.9082892

>>9082335
The world produces enough food to feed every person 2k calories per day.
Famine is a political artifact.

>> No.9082984

>>9082892
we entered a post-scarcity age awhile ago, yet still use archaic risk-based speculative economies that do not reflect the stability that is guaranteed by technological industrial civilization.

we have reached a new baseline where our modern industrial system can guarantee everyone food, shelter, and early retirement.

financial wealth based on speculative market is an illusion

>> No.9083015

>implying the feds will raise the rates as nations are finally weening themselves off the dollar
lmao muh deflation is a fate worse than death

>> No.9083058

>>9082797
crashes are political tools. the oligarchs gain from erosion of individual rights and freedom. with every crash, society is dragged deeper into the dungeon of enslavement.

>> No.9083120

>>9082505
The great exodus out of America

More people are currently fleeing New York than any other metropolitan area in the nation. More than 1 million people have moved out of New York City since 2010 in search of greener pastures, which amounts to a negative net migration rate of 4.4 percent.

Am I the only one in my spinning class at Equinox in Manhattan who’s fed up paying $200 every month for a gym with clean showers, $3,000 in rent every month for an apartment without cockroaches and $8 every morning for a cup of coffee? Am I the only one moving through the greater part of New York City boroughs and seeing an inexorable march of urban decay matched with the discomfort of crowding and inexplicable costs? I know I am not.

New York is the most expensive city in America. Its lower-cost neighborhoods are riddled with crime and homelessness. Its public schools, some of which are among the worst in the nation, look more like prisons than places of learning.

With between up to 50 percent of their paycheck going to a combination of federal, local and city taxes, not including other consumer taxes baked into every aspect of their consumer practices, residents don’t even have the comfort of knowing that their tax expenditures are going to the improvement of their lives in the city. New York infamously misuses the hard-earned tax revenues of its citizens in ways that scarcely benefit them.

What’s happening in the Big Apple is a microcosm of what’s happening in the nation’s blue states, cities and towns. New York, Los Angeles, Chicago — the places were power and capital have traditionally congregated

http://thehill.com/opinion/finance/384536-the-great-exodus-out-of-americas-blue-cities

>> No.9083185

>>9079394
You idiot. The dollar price of gold is irrelevant. A gold ounce 900 years ago is a gold ounce today. Nothing changed. Doesn't matter if the dollar exists or not.

We will have a deflationary collapse of all asset prices and gold will be revalued much higher to purge all the debt from the system.

>> No.9083368

>>9082505
what the fuck is the alternative lads? im making money as a forex trader and my crypto stack ATH was around 350k, now 150k or so. even that is nowhere near enough(after taxes, australia) to live a comfortable life you could easily attain 50 years ago.

the west really is a fucking scam. you are doomed to servitude unless you are exceptionally talented at something and can monetise it, or you make millions with crypto.

im going to have to move to some SEA shithole to live comfortable and get ahead financially

>> No.9083382

>>9083120
Unions, private and public, are a big problem with costs of living in large cities. Private unions drive up the cost of construction and public unions eat away at the tax revenues. So you have to pay exorbitant amounts for rent/mortgage/goods and then you get to pay an exorbitant amount in taxes for that privilege. Fucking leeches