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/biz/ - Business & Finance


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7506539 No.7506539 [Reply] [Original]

Hi biz

I'm not as smart as half of you and certainly not as technically literate. However I'd be interested to hear your perspectives on this.

I initially purchased $3.5k of BTC and LTC in 2016, I sold when BTC was circa $17k and I've put more back into BTC since circa $7200 with much higher exposure to alts which were picked by people who I see as smarter and more informed than I am. I'd timestamp pictures of the bullion I purchased but it's too heavy to stick it all on my desk plus if you think I'm LARPing it doesn't matter - I'm more interested in asking you what you think of this observation.

Outside of all the technical analysis you do or insight you feel you have from seriously comprehending and doing your own research I was wondering how much of a role you think instinct has in speculating on mass psychology. I'm not interested in buying fashion or clothing for myself however I do find it spotting patterns in it interesting.

Why is it some things are "cool" or not - is that instinct as to what it is following some sort of deep-seated social pattern-spotting which is tracking a sense as to how deviated or undeviated from the sartorial norm something is - is this sense involved in speculative mass psychology too?

Feel free to shitpost if you're not interested...

>> No.7506569

>>7506539
kys faggot

>> No.7506676

>>7506539
Personality theory is pure fortunetelling bs, you're free to be whomever you want. You're a self-fulfilling prophecy. Dream big!

>> No.7506688

>>7506569

*shrugs* Live long and prosper.

>> No.7506703

>>7506539
go back to stylezeitgeist and play dressup
with the other gayass manchild shiteaters

>muh individualistic goth ninja
every 13y old h&m customer

>> No.7506713

im a shaman. i am tune with the feelings and vibes projected by other individuals and masses.

>> No.7506831

>>7506539
Who cares OP? Why do you want to know? I was trying to type up a serious response but I want to ask you this first because I really am wondering.

>> No.7506837

Go pull your shitty blog at reddit i'm sure they'll give a fuck about your inane ramblings

>> No.7506839

>>7506676

>You're a self-fulfilling prophecy.

However that's just it - the human brain has a limited set of categories / concepts it uses - it selects information based on those. To some extent which categories or concepts are selected condition what it will forecast or how it reacts to some situations - sure it's essentially fortune-telling in some situations however the instinct to set out some sort of structure to see the future is the start of all scientific enterprise so it's not quite the slur you'd think to say something's self-fulfilling.

>> No.7506841

there is a reason most every successful trader is INTJ
I=spend all time researching
N=god-like intuition/feeling the masses
T=do not give in to emotion
J=not a fag P who rationalizes himself out of every move

>> No.7507017

>>7506841
I'm an INTP and I actually read mostly post's by INTJ, who are my autistic research slaves. I think you guys are goid for finding promising coins but you don't take the average irrational retard normie in account, who fomo's into the next flavor of the month coin.

holding RLC, ENG, ETH, XMR, BCH and BTC btw

>> No.7507193

>>7506839
read socionics guys, visit Wikisocion and learn that you can predict how humans will behave. We are not as complicated as we think. socionics can also tell your ideal partner. MBTI is crap, socionics is scientific.

t. INTP (smarter than you)

>> No.7507202

>>7506831

I'm honestly just asking because for all the shit on this board I've done quite well at this just using "instinct" - too well for it to just be sheer luck so I'm just curious what sort of subconscious processes might be involved and how similar or not they are to what's used consciously.

I figured you'd shred this sort of opinion however if you didn't entirely I'd just be interested to see why you think it's legitimate and why...?

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/skirtlengththeory.asp

>> No.7507266

>>7507017
Smart coins. I’m basically just holding ETH and XMR with a bit of BCH. I think people are sick of BTC, and this is really just all sentiment

>> No.7507344

>>7506539
Cool is related to aesthetics. Your instinct in picking coins is most likely an ability to see value and legitimacy of a project versus empty scams. Not really sure what the question is lol.

>> No.7507356

>>7507017
>but you don't take the average irrational retard normie in account

This is their consistent issue.

>T=do not give in to emotion

I'm totally emotionless and inert I'm just more likely to use agency and motivation to understand the world than objects and interaction.

>read socionics guys, visit Wikisocion and learn that you can predict how humans will behave. We are not as complicated as we think. socionics can also tell your ideal partner. MBTI is crap, socionics is scientific.

I'm not interested in theories for their own sake MBTI is sufficiently correlated to some sound stuff for me to feel like I have an initial starting point to grasp how a person feels and thinks.

>> No.7507370

>>7506839
Personality theory is like an empirical categorization of your avatar, which if you know how diverse the range of behaviours is, is simply too broad to sustain in a cookie-cutter type of personality model, thus adding a limitless range of behaviours to integrate within a rigid framework. Science has nothing to do with personality in case a person has an unlimited range of modifications it can adapt and sustain. You may think that you are limited at the age of 10, then you become someone completely different at the age of 15, and by 20 you're a mix and match of different features, some with you will further integrate or discard by the time that you're 25.

>> No.7507377

>>7506539

TA asside the stock market (and crypto is as just) is a big fucking gamble. Considering the volatility of crypto it's even more of a gamble.

I deeply believe the people who earned a lot were just lucky and that's it. I mean the more you get in TA you realize how retarded it all is. Finance brainlets want you to believe they smart but it is literally elementary school math observation nothing more.

You are correct that the price of the stock is much more about psychology then it is about math

>> No.7507447
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7507447

>Myers-Briggs psuedoscience kek
There is absolutely nothing scientific about these bullshit personality tests. 50% chance of getting a different result if you take it again

>> No.7507455

>>7507193
Socionics is MBTI + psychoanalytic elements which are the bottom of a scientific litter. Define subconscious clearer than spirituality. And IF you still think that your definitions apply, suppose that language is for the sake of adaptation/interpretation of empirical data, now you're really fucked with all of its biases.

>> No.7507518

>>7507377
I listened to a bunch of talks with profitable traders and it seems they all develop some kind of mentality to scout the reasoning behind other's actions before acting themselves. They obviously don't disclose everything they do but that's hint I get from them. TA alone might be a meme but it's just another tool in a good arsenal.

>> No.7507576

>>7507447
Algorithmic bots can determine your mbti based on browsing habits and content you view the most... Its not pseudoscience bullshit.

>> No.7507582

>>7507518

I guess it is the old meme story

>When niggers that shine your shoes start investing in stock it's time to sell everything because the crash is imminent.

>> No.7507653

>>7507518

Perhaps I'm just an idiot who got lucky - I don't trust my instincts because I'm not sure why I shouldn't think it was luck.

>> No.7507828

>>7507356

emotionless yeah? read this description:

http://www.wikisocion.net/en/index.php?title=Wikisocion_ILI_composite

>> No.7507990

>>7507582
In hindsight I had this happen to me when BTC was around ATH and I totally missed it. But I think the point is to understand what the big players are doing and where the big waves are going. For example, I don't know if it was the timezone difference (pretty sure it wasn't because nippon stocks went down pretty quickly), but chinese stocks took a couple extra days to start going down after US indexes. Anticipating that could be profitable.

>>7507653
Everything has to be at least partly luck, but there was surely some kind of action on your part, and your experiences to that point led you to choosing the presumably more profitable option. Whether we succeed or fail, what will make the difference is our reflection upon it. You're taking the time to reconsider the reasoning to your decision, that's more than most would do, so even if it was just luck you're evolving somewhere.

>> No.7508334
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7508334

>> No.7509245

The amount one is influenced by social trends is strongly effected by their progress through Maslow's hierarchy, most in developed world do not need to worry about physiological and security needs at any point in life, not learning these lessons of what is truly required at the base level of survival leaves most trapped in limbo between social and esteem needs, at this point one is looking at what is genuinely 'cool' but they perceive others think, very few reach actualisation or transcendance but it is often those that loose everything or have started with nothing that do. Having said all that trends can be gauged by what is spread in the mainstream, what language is used and what reoccurs, the heard will follow what they believe others will be impressed by and this is easy to measure.

>> No.7509297

>>7507193
IEE checking in.
Can confirm.
Socionics is real.

>> No.7509334

>>7506569
thank god you posted that. because I was going to

>> No.7509578

>>7506569

>Biz: The post

>> No.7509742

>a bunch of stupid kids make money in a ridiculous bull market
>they think they're smart now

>> No.7509854

>>7506539
i don't think cool is a thing anymore because it's too fractured. you're born cool or not like chad.
in fashion i think what the guy wearing is trendy, it started a couple years ago (the minimalist monochrome look with a bomber jacket or leather jacket in few colors, or elevated activewear). in fact that look was sort of a reaction to the workwear/lumberjack trend.

whatever is new and different with a small following can spark off trends. once a lot of people adopt it its over and the trend starts going on the decline. when you're dad starts dressing like that you know its over. look up articles about corporations co-opting counter culture for profit and you'll understand. the same thing is happening with bitcoin right now.

>> No.7510376

>Myers Briggs

Kill yourself.

>> No.7510474

>>7507202
You could have thrown darts at a board to determine which coins to buy and you would have done "too well for it to just be sheer luck" with the insane growth every shitcoin went through in 2017.

>I've put more back into BTC since circa $7200 with much higher exposure to alts which were picked by people who I see as smarter and more informed than I am.
I can't really tell what you are trying to say here, you say that you put money into bitcoin in the first half of the sentence but the second half makes it sound like you invested in altcoins.
Not like it really matters. What question are you asking here exactly? What I think of you following the footsteps of intelligent people?

The price of a coin comes down to what people think of it (from a technical perspective) and what people think other people think of it. Note that the first part most of the time also is more what people hear other people say about the coins technical aspects, so especially in your case it is analyzing people's opinions.
What you consider "instinct" is simply putting less effort into considering the same variables. You use "instinct" to decide that you should invest in bitcoin when the people you are exposed to are convincingly confident that the price will go up. Everyone does this, but the amount of effort they put into it varies from buying a coin because they saw a shill thread on /biz/, to reading the whitepaper, considering the real world use case of this coin, doing thorough research into the hype surrounding it etc to decide if investing into this coin would be worthwhile and how long it would be smart to hold it. It's all the same, just different levels of it.

So to conclude this, "instinct" is not some kind of 6th sense but a low effort investigation which could be expanded on.

>> No.7510525
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7510525

>>7506539

INTJ writing in to let you know that we're your master, we're going to steal all your money, rape you and then sell your emotional ass to niggers.

GG you emotional faggot.

>> No.7510623
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7510623

>>7506539
Everything that we think serves a purpose for increasing the reproductive capacity of the human race.
This paradoxically can be in the form of bettering the community, like a cuck taking good care of a well-gened kid.
Instinct absolutely informs everything we do, we only tend to rationalize our reasoning after the fact: "it seemed cool" or "it seemed chill"

>> No.7510760

autism + sperg thread

>> No.7510831
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7510831

Intj here, fuck your feelings
Stay poor faggot and obey us intellectual supreme overlord

>> No.7510873
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7510873

>>7506539
back to plebbit with you

>> No.7510888

>>7506539
Cool is just the opposite of whatever mainstream is. Things are cool until they aren't, ie large scale adoption.

>> No.7511274

>>7507202
Im in the same boat and and me explanation is that at this time its all sentiment, with a couple pnd s thrown in. I bought two coins strictly on marketing and sentiment, both went x10, bith now significantly lower. I sold both at the top because I knew I was only riding a wave of excitement. IMO this will be much more difficult now, theres more sophisticated players coming in, organized fud/fomo, so I've dug deeper, researched more, and found my long term portfolio, all biz coins at one time. Im holding VET/ICX/ETH, may add some LINK. If you look behind the biz curtain, you'll find the turbofaggot, and the autismo, and they will guide you! I dont mind your steez btw