Oil General

[Anonymous No.687340]

We post about oil and other energy commodities.

[Anonymous No.687344]

Oils tipping below 43.9, dwti still rising, hope no one burns their fingers getting in UWTI too early

[Anonymous No.687346]

>>687336

So then I should probably start loading up on UWTI then.

Thanks for that formula too. Appreciate it.

I was thinking about holding it throughout the year and just skimming profit off as needed.

I need to feel productive, it's been 4+ years since I've worked, and the missus has started leaving several hundred in our savings for me to load into Brokerage for my own devices.

I didn't have the capital to touch DWTI so I stopped following these glorious threads for the most part.

[Anonymous No.687348]

I can see crude touching 42 today. Seems like it

[Anonymous No.687349]

>>687346

what if i think oil will rise 56 from 44? what would the formula look like?

[Anonymous No.687354]

>>687349
>>687346
if you mean what the price will be when you should sell, then the base math is (future price - current price)/current price

(56-44)/44 = 27.27%

2.1 x (1 + 3(0.2727) )= 3.818

your base target is 3.818 but that amount could be higher or lower depending on beta-slippage.

[Anonymous No.687355]

How low will UWTI go before it goes bust?

[Anonymous No.687357]

new target entry for uwti coming up
i no longer feel comfortable going with 2 at this point
however, i want it to line up with crudes 43.57

[Anonymous No.687362]

>>687355
>>687357
i bought in a position at 2.07; if genscape report is positive then i can sell it, if it's negative then once it drops another 21 cents, i'll expand my position.

i'm going to go heavy into UWTI. watch me get burned

[Anonymous No.687363]

>>687354

would rather shoot for 105 meaning 5.25 if i did my math right
>no sleep

[Anonymous No.687364]

>>687362

i dont get why you would increase your exposure to losses
that should be done for gains

[Anonymous No.687366]

>>687364

its cuz we got some hungry lads on this board.

[Anonymous No.687368]

Oils getting close to 43.57, trailing around 43.63 right now, if it passes 43.57 expect it to hit 42.

[Anonymous No.687369]

Why did I buy exxon?
Damn it, I give up. I can't even buy an index fund without the damn market correction happening the next week.

[Anonymous No.687373]

oooooooo what to dooooooo

[Anonymous No.687374]

>>687364
i'm buying in now because i am bullish on oil but i don't know exactly when it's going to bottom out. i think it will bottom out soon, so i'm expanding my position while i'm in the red so that when it does go up, i don't miss it.
>>687366
as this fellow said, i'm a hungry lad and i think the upside is worth the risk. not going to let some red numbers scare me from making some green. sometimes you've got to take a risk buying ahead of prevailing market sentiment. 50% within 3 months makes me eager enough to take that risk.

[Anonymous No.687377]

>>687364

Jesus, how low do -you- think it's going to fall?


Wasn't it's lowest around 1.47 or some shit a couple months ago?

[Anonymous No.687380]

>>687374

it's not about being scared but about preserving capital and managing risk
to each their own, tho

[Anonymous No.687381]

>>687377
UWTI is a 3x etf.

oil goes down 50%, uwti goes down 150%

When this is all over UWTI will be worthless.

The people buying in at these prices are going to fucking lose their shit.

If UWTI is still around when oil hits 30 it might be worth dipping into at that point.

[Anonymous No.687382]

>>687377

right now im starting to veer on much lower
i really want to time the upturn but that could still be later this week
there's some divergence going on between /cl and uwti and i dont like it

[Anonymous No.687386]

>>687382

i think im going to lay off completely for now i dont like what im seeing

[Anonymous No.687392]

>>687340

DEAD CAT BOUNCE!

The cat is dead yall!

$20 oil, here we come!

[Anonymous No.687395]

dat new low, damn. what an interesting day. ITS DROPPINGGGG

[Anonymous No.687397]

stops just got took out holy cow that volume spike in a split of a second

[Anonymous No.687399]

i almost want to buy
market makers just got a good position

[Anonymous No.687400]

>>687340

That feeling when I was bearish and bought DWTI at 120, only watch the dead cat bounce for a month and end up selling out at 122... only to watch this over the next week.

FAWK. I should have trusted my research... I new it would eventually habben.

And now DWTI it is a nuclear potato that I wouldn't touch if you paid me good money.

The only option at this point is to wait for UWTI when oil hits 35 or 30...


According to OPEC this may take a while to even reach a full culmination:

OPEC says low oil prices may hit U.S. output by late 2015
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/opec-says-low-oil-prices-120832662.html

"LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. oil output could start to take a hit by late 2015 due to low prices, OPEC said on Monday, suggesting the exporter group will have to wait beyond its next meeting in June to see if its strategy to defend market share will dent the shale oil boom."

[Anonymous No.687401]

Thank god I got out. Shietttt

[Anonymous No.687402]

Sea drill is looking good right now

[Anonymous No.687404]

>>687402

IT's either going to look better, or non existent in 6 months.

[Anonymous No.687407]

>>687381

>DWTI jumped 16$

Good gawd.

[Anonymous No.687408]

>>687407

you either rode DWTI up in 2014 or in the past month, i doubt its going to go up again after the next tumble.

[Anonymous No.687409]

Fuck I might just hedge both etn's for Wednesday I don't know what's gonna happen anymore

[Anonymous No.687411]

I sold over 200 shares of DWTi at 129. Don't regret it one bit.... Well maybe a little but whatever.

[Anonymous No.687413]

>>687407
DWTI is traveling at 4 times the index. so is UWTI.

wake me when it gets to 1.8.

[Anonymous No.687415]

Oil will rise can't wait to see you idiots lose your money, war is on the horizon

[Anonymous No.687416]

>>687340

Fellows,

The 12 month contango spread on prices is back to 12 bucks. At this point we should see contango demand again..

UWTI looks attractive to me at this point.. but I wouldn't expect more than another dead cat bounce as the overall fundamentals for oil are leading to the cost of a barrel dropping all the way to below the cost of production.... (medium term) (6 months)

[Anonymous No.687417]

>>687415

"war" do you read a lot of zero hedge or something? scared putins been hiding for too long? pretty sure people can make money whether oil goes up or down. Why don't you show us your trades.

[Anonymous No.687418]

>>687415

Who the fuck is going to go to war now?

Russia & the US?

US & Saudi Arabia?

Fucking US, EU & Russia against Saudi?

[Anonymous No.687425]

>>687416

just checked brent spreads though.. there is no contango on brent... which could allow brent to fall further, pushing WTI further...

This shit is in free fall for good reason. I'm just gonna stand back away from this all for a little bit here...

This reminds me of watching the bank stocks dive in 2008... you know it's coming... you know it's gonna be ugly.. like a train wreck... but you have no way to really know where the bottom is until you get there....

[Anonymous No.687436]

>>687417
>>687418
Russia is going to "secure" its interest in ukraine, that's the announcement among other things already hinted at.

[Anonymous No.687437]

>>687436

They've been "securing" their interest in ukraine for the past damn year.

[Anonymous No.687440]

>>687436

Old news, this happens a few times every year practically.

[Anonymous No.687450]

Mfw sir Shillington says to sell at 150

[Anonymous No.687454]

>>687425
the reading is like that because USA demand bulls think oil consumption is going to pick up or production is going to go down.

fundamentally, oil should be headed towards up but market sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish. the media has been hyping the train for weeks when the bulls were saying it won't happen and then the bulls got served and now they've got cold feet. i sound like a broken record, but production declines really are headed this way and i think this wednesday will show it.

the lower pricing caused by brent is supportive of WTI in the long run. in the short term, WTI will go down by the pricing, but the closer brent gets to backwardation, the closer people realize that the global oil market has stabilized at the lowest possible low. that's when production and consumption is stabilized, production will decline in order to ramp up prices OPEC side because saudi already knows that murrica oil production is sure to be in steep decline by the middle half 2015.

after a double dip, with brent april/may a difference of only 14 cents, brent can't go much lower.

i think stagger-buying is the best way to mitigate timing risk. whether or not UWTI goes back up is not a concern for me; it's a matter of when, and the party looks like it's going to pick up very soon.

you should do your own analysis though.

[Anonymous No.687456]

>>687437
Not like this.

[Anonymous No.687460]

>>687454

I think fundamentally oil should be heading down, global demand is only slowing and production is still quite relatively high, you also have to account for the USD being at recent historic highs as well.

Oil will probably rebound in the next few weeks regardless though, this is only a few days, just a few drops in the pond.

[Anonymous No.687462]

>>687456

So what you're saying is the american armored convoy moving across europe is the opening statement of WW3 against Russia.

[Anonymous No.687466]

>>687462
No, of course not. Short oil and lose it all in the next couple days.

[Anonymous No.687469]

>>687454

I think I agree with a lot of your fundamentals... but you state:

>fundamentally, oil should be headed towards up

>in the short term, WTI will go down by the pricing

So which is it?

The fact is that oil will likely continue to fall through the first half of the year... and with DWTI in the astronomical range that it is in already, I wouldn't touch it because it could turn around on you and bite... but UWTI could fall further over the next couple months as well.

And honestly, with the huge supply glut we have now, oil could stay at low prices (in the 30s or 40s) for years. So UWTI may or may not be a grand slam at this point.

My take on the oil timeline is that we haven't hit bottom yet, and it may take quite some time to hit bottom still.

[Anonymous No.687472]

We WTI 42, now.

The ride never ends.

[Anonymous No.687473]

>>687466

Thanks mate for the hot tips i shoulda listened to you sooner i'll cash out while i can!

[Anonymous No.687478]

>>687340

with DWTI and UWTI where they are trading right now.. this would indicate a market belief that WTI will break under 43 today.

>iAgreeWithThis

[Anonymous No.687480]

full pig mode

fuck you niggas telling me to sell at 150

[Anonymous No.687485]

>>687473
Be very carefull, oil is currently very very volatile. I would stay out unless your rich or Hilary clinton

[Anonymous No.687488]

>>687485

how do you think i woulda made this money without volatility.

[Anonymous No.687489]

>>687469
>>687478
with production declines imminent, fundamentally oil should be moving upwards as production decline is moving faster than i anticipated. the plateau period i predicted came 1 month early, which means that i overestimated the productive capacity of horizontal wells or underestimated the effect of rig counts on the moving average.

demand is also stronger than i anticipated. if we could close 6 million barrels of demand off of one week more because of seasonality then what do you think will happen for the rest of the summer? bears are only going to be right for the very short term. that's how the double dip works. bulls are going to be right for all the months after it.

brent pricing is also stabilizing. as backwardation sets in, supply and demand will come into a stable price range. it won't be able to drop much lower. i would not be surprised if saudi arabia raised the price of its oil to asia within the month.

in the short term however, overwhelming bearish sentiment is going to keep oil prices depressed even though the fundamentals say it should move upward. DWTI/UWTI aren't tracking the index movements anymore because the bears are extremely eager to make money off of each other, which is the signal of a bubble. bulls are also too fearful because they were wrong once and they've given up on their hypothesis. that's why i'm buying into UWTI ahead of the EIA report - i believe it's being punished unnecessarily.

[Anonymous No.687495]

>>687488
Then turn on Jim Kramer

[Anonymous No.687497]

So why is uwto the favorite? Don't all of these ETFs kind of move together?

[Anonymous No.687498]

>>687495

Great tip i hope that's working out for you.

[Anonymous No.687500]

>>687497
UWTI*

[Anonymous No.687502]

>>687489
you can take a look at the volume count of both UWTI and DWTI. that volume trading is not sustainable. when you're moving at 3, 4 times the average, the buying/selling pressure means that the reversal is going to be a) very fast and b) very soon. it's how it works. one second, the bears are going to say "all right, i'm bullish now", like me, and then the price will move up.

the last time this happened it happened over the course of 2 weeks. well, last week was the first week, this is the second. i think oil is headed up by the third.

[Anonymous No.687514]

i want to hear the bear's opinion; where do you see oil prices at in 3 months time? where do you think oil will bottom out and when?

[Anonymous No.687516]

>>687502
Ya everyone's just waiting now,

[Anonymous No.687520]

How do you guys learn and read about the oil industry to know so much on a daily basis and be able to use that knowledge to make future projections?

I'm not the kind of guy to look for handouts or gimmies. I want the fishing rod not the fish

[Anonymous No.687522]

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/brent-crude-oil-last-day.html

backwardation in front end by 1 cent.

i'm calling the bottom. Brent is not going below 52 a barrel.

and once brent downward pressure is gone, WTI will stop the decline, which will lead to +'s.

[Anonymous No.687525]

>>687522

[Anonymous No.687526]

>>687522
front end, brent is narrowed to the point where it''s in backwardation and backend, brent is now a dollar each month in contango. all the indicators point to oil moving up. contango is back on the table boys

[Anonymous No.687539]

Who is the lucky one that got in at 1.95$? UWTI

[Anonymous No.687547]

What are the chances these stocks like UWTI or UCO won't go back up? Are they like any other regular business stock where they can get so low they are eliminated, or will my shares still be safe as long as the oil industry exists?

[Anonymous No.687554]

>>687547
you'll have to be more specific. go up by how much exactly? i've given some pretty specific estimates on how much and how long it'll take to get there, but UWTI is pretty much guaranteed to go back up. how much depends on your modeling

refer to the last thread about how ETF's and betaslippage work

[Anonymous No.687559]

>>687520

Watch these threads and you will see links to reports and stuff as they comeout..

the links can generally be relied on the stay the same, subsequent oil reports are generally published to the same link.

here are two to get you started...

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html

We are generally using ^ that one to show contango or lack of contango. with the idea that oil costs 50 cents a barrel to store.. this has come from numerous oil articles over the last month.


http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=79687&p=irol-reportsother

This one ^ is the baker hughs rig count report that show show many rigs are DRILLING for oil, not how many rigs are pumping existing wells.

we are using these numbers to make some assumptions, however, numerous oil articles that have been posted here several times have also spoken of a vastly increasing efficiency with which new "rigs" can drill wells at cheaper prices and in less time.. meaning that fewer rigs would be needed to sustain output, or eve increase it potentially.

so there are a lot of assumptions. the industry is changing because of fracking and no one really knows that to expect.. that is why there is so much speculation and volatlity.

[Anonymous No.687566]

NE, CCJ, KMI, and RIG all in the green what's going on here??

[Anonymous No.687574]

>>687566
Midstream gives zero fucks (maybe not zero fucks, but very few fucks) about price of oil. They get paid to haul it from place to place, whether it trades at $10 or $100

[Anonymous No.687579]

>>687547
The VelocityShares 3x Long Crude Oil ETNs linked to the S&P GSCI® Crude Oil Index ER (the “ETNs”) are senior, unsecured obligations of Credit Suisse AG (“Credit Suisse”) acting through its Nassau branch. The ETNs seek to provide long exposure to three times (3x) the daily performance of the S&P GSCI® Crude Oil Index ER (the “Index”) plus a daily accrual equal to the return that could be earned on a notional capital reinvestment at the three month U.S. Treasury rate as reported on Bloomberg under ticker USB3MTA, less the daily investor fee. The ETNs are intended to provide traders with an exchange traded instrument enabling them to efficiently express their market views on the NYMEX WTI crude oil future.

Certain Risks Associated with the ETNs
• The ETNs do not guarantee any return of principal. Investors should be willing to lose up to 100% of their investment.
• Any payments on the ETNs are subject to the ability of Credit Suisse to pay its obligations as they become due.
• The ETNs are intended to be daily trading tools for sophisticated investors and are designed to reflect a leveraged long exposure to the Index on a daily basis, but their returns over different periods of time can, and most likely will, differ significantly from 3x the return on a direct long investment in the Index.
• The ETNs are very sensitive to changes in the level of the Index, and the ETNs may be negatively impacted in complex ways by volatility of the Index on a daily or intraday

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053092/000089109212000790/e47296fwp.htm

[Anonymous No.687582]

>>687547
So yes you might lose it all if on Wednesday rigs come out less but even more supply and storage runs out.

[Anonymous No.687588]

So I'm unsure about getting into UWTI right now.

Should I just wait see until wednesday?

I was going to just drop a couple hundred in and see how it went.

[Anonymous No.687597]

>>687588
100-200 shares wouldn't be a bad bet

[Anonymous No.687603]

>>687582
And where does all that money go?

[Anonymous No.687605]

>Forgot to put money into my brokerage account long ago, hell didn't even set up a bank transfer
>Watching UWTI tick up

>Wrestling with account transfer options like a fucking retard.

[Anonymous No.687616]

You guys are made of harder stuff than I am. I'd like to jump back to the game, but my assets are tied elsewhere for this week. Especially Wednesday seems to be a big day for oil, are you guys gonna ride DWTI all the way? And what will you UWTI guys do in the meantime? I just hope next week will have plenty in store for me...

[Anonymous No.687619]

>>687616

Well since I'm a chucklefuck, I'll be waiting for my account to verify with my bank before I can put money into UWTI

Additionally, I'll be waiting for Amazon to send me my goddamn Dean Vendetta XMT & Rocksmith cable so I can start learning to play an instrument, and comparing the guitar with a beater Ibanez 270DX I bought from Sam Ashe yesterday.

I'm worried I may need another 120$ worth of gear to play a guitar comfortably on my PC

[Anonymous No.687622]

>>687619
all you need is the Rocksmith USB cable, and then go to the bay where pirates use to dock and get Guitar Rig 5.

My apartment is far too small for an amp. My landlord would be pounding on my door even with a Tiny Terror at 2.5w

[Anonymous No.687627]

>>687622

The problem I'm having is with this Ibanez I bought.

There's so much fucking noise in the signal, it sounds like I've got a distortion pedal.

My guess is the guy stored this thing piss poorly and the electronics are damaged, if I'm willing to make the assumption the fault doesn' lie in my lack of a USB Interface & Direct Injector of some form.

I already have Guitar Rig 5 installed. I need to go look up a setup guide too tho.

[Anonymous No.687647]

Why are there little to no mentions of ERX?

[Anonymous No.687650]

>>687616
uwti here. in for the long haul. gains or bust!

don't even have enough cash left for a pistol.

[Anonymous No.687654]

>>687647
we used to talk about it a couple threads back.

the consensus is that oil companies are still keeping "proven reserves" on their books at the 100 dollar closing price of the previous quarter.

When they are all forced to reevaluate the value of their "proven reserves" based on a new price of 43 bucks a share you are going to see some serious shit.

The price of oil falls first, then the companies all start to fail on a lagging basis. The oil companies the ERX tracks haven't even begun to feel the pain yet.

ERX is likely a good play, but late in the game.

We may or may not have seen the bottom in oil, but we definitely haven't seen the bottom on oil companies. (which, again, is what ERX tracks)

[Anonymous No.687680]

>not playing oil today
>still up 5%
>still bitter about MPO

If only we could get threads like this for the equities market and the forex.

[Anonymous No.687707]

>>687654

Ya i understand well put i was thinking the same thing to an extent, was waiting for the next earnings period for it all to come crashing down. It seems far more reliable then uwti when the time comes, recovery will be slow but even on that dead cat bounce it gained $20. Will be one to watch out for in a few months.

[Anonymous No.687717]

>$wfref

huh...

[nay !NUacgk0yxU No.687733]

Who's looking at DGAZ? Natural gas demand should be drying up now that winter's over.

[Anonymous No.687734]

>>687733

Isn't that a bit dried up? Natural gas is practically dead as is, rigs at all time low and all that jazz.

[nay !NUacgk0yxU No.687737]

>>687733
Also, in case anyone cares, entered UWTI for the mid to long-term @ 300 shares. Going to double down on this every $1 drop or so in WTI. Will increase position by 50% every $1.00 gain. If oil breaks below $42 im going to eat losses and get out unless I find reason otherwise

[nay !NUacgk0yxU No.687740]

>>687734
Good point, I was fishing for information more than anything. I don't know much about natural gas -- my eyes, like everyone else's, have been turned towards oil.
On the other hand, I think we should start looking at gas in general. It (and other clean energies) are the future, especially with this overwhelmingly liberal generation of college students... Of course this is just long term speculation and I'm half talking out of my ass.

[Anonymous No.687741]

>>687737

I just picked up 75 shares.

Wish I'd gone in at sub 2 per.

[Anonymous No.687742]

>>687737

Not a bad position to enter into just to tread the waters, i'm waiting till tomorrow or wednesday till i even consider UWTI. Just got out of dwti don't want to be too eager to flip flop into something. on the last deadcat bounce in february it bounced up to $4.50 so it seems safe enough provided oil doesn't go high mid 30's

[Anonymous No.687746]

>>687737
4500 shares avged at 2.02 today w/ tight stops

plan is out by eod tomorrow

[Anonymous No.687748]

>>687746
How much you expecting it to be up by EOD tomorrow?

10-15c?

[Anonymous No.687751]

>>687748
expect dead cat bounce to 2.teens.

maybe switch back to dwti if i feel piggish

[Anonymous No.687753]

>>687751

Greedy ass.

[nay !NUacgk0yxU No.687756]

>>687751
I pulled out of DWTI after trying to daytrade it unsuccessfully (which I normally do well). I realized watching the small time frame ticks that technicals aren't working very well on those time frames and that there's a lot of consolidation going on.

[nay !NUacgk0yxU No.687759]

>>687746
Nice. How tight is your stop? I had a $0.02 stop entering at $2.00 earlier and got bit.

[Anonymous No.687762]

Genscape estimates a 3.1mil inventory increase at Cushing. Overall inventory increase last week was 4.5mil.
Cushing inventory at 59.6mil barrels.

[Anonymous No.687766]

>>687759
not that tight my god.

1.97

[nay !NUacgk0yxU No.687771]

Any traders here run trailing stops? I generally use them more than hard stops. I start with a hard stop and once the break even point is exceeded I swap over to trailing.

[Anonymous No.687773]

>>687647
>ERX up today
>oil posting new lows

time to buy ERY?

[nay !NUacgk0yxU No.687779]

>>687773
Im scared of shorting energy any further. Going to reassess the situation once more information is out. Hopefully a comment from Saudi Arabia.

[Anonymous No.687782]

>>687779
check USO/ERX 5day

so tempting

[nay !NUacgk0yxU No.687790]

>>687782
Looking at it perfunctorily and it seems like it's testing a resistance (looking from my iPhone on a 1 week chart). I'd avoid USO completely... It's a horrid ETF

[nay !NUacgk0yxU No.687791]

>>687790
Not that the aapl chart gives enough data to say that surely. I maintain the latter statement

[Anonymous No.687895]

>>687779
SA already issued their statement; they've stripped their forecast of global demand for oil by 100,000 barrels a day so they're slightly bearish towards global oil, but they revised their estimates on the decline in USA oil production from 2018 to "late 2015", which is supportive of the WTI bulls.

i know i can't technically say 'i told you so' until we see some green but i'll say it again; oil is headed up. fundamentally, it has every reason to head up. the reason why it hasn't is because of brent pricing, and that's gone now with brent back in contango and market inefficiency in bearish sentiment. a 1-month price target of 48 is reasonable since june 2015 is trading at close to 48 already. 48 from current prices is almost 10%; 30% on UWTI = 2.7.

that's in 1 month. and then when the production declines happen (from a month after plateau forward) you'll be seeing incremental gains for the next 14 or so weeks until they start adding more rigs back into the mix.

any bears want to fight me on this? who still thinks oil is headed to 30?

[Anonymous No.687944]

>>687895
short term there is no doubt that it could head to 20.

long term, of course you are correct. The average price of production is well above current levels.

But right now, at this moment, there is a supply glut that is still building and it will take at least a year for us to work through over 400 million barrels.. even at large supply side inadequacy or strong demand.

there are contractual reasons that production can't stop. there are new efficiencies in fracking that at today's prices will still make some wells very profitable. some estimates for break even on fracking have been as low as 28 bucks a barrel.

I am all for being bullish on oil, but I think you have to find the opportune time.

That time could be right now, or it could be more toward the middle of 2015.

Right now I certainly wouldn't bet money that I needed on it.

in about 2 months or at $25 a barrel I'll be far more bullish and will be ready to go all in with my life savings of 250k on uwti.


but your assumptions are all based on the price of oil being $65 to 55 a barrel next year, and we have seen in the recent 2 weeks that expectations next year for the price of oil are quickly changed.

When people finally realize we are going to be in an oversupply situation into the middle of the year and only then start working through the glut (assuming demand will stay strong at the end of this equity bull market) it is safe to assume even conservatively, that we should be in an oversupply situation well into the middle of 2016.

With SA not turning off their taps, and predicting lower demand, there is no reason to think that brent spreads will keep WTI above 40.

And with predictions for the price of next year likely to fall as reality sets in, there is no reason to think contango for next year will keep WTI above 40 either.

it's a downward cycle until we hit bottom with next years prices coming down for the ride...

[Anonymous No.687954]

>>687944
should of pointed out that the pic is related.

In October of last year everyone was sure that oil would trade at 85 bucks a barrel.

In February everyone was sure that oil would trade at ~62 bucks a barrel.

Today people seem to think that oil will cost 55 a barrel next year.

if we can go from 85 to 65, we can go from 65 to 45, easily.

This let's current prices drop to 33 with contango fully in play.

Price of storage goes up, or storage facilities fill up and contango will stop propping up prices at 12 bucks lower than the year forward expectation.

if storage goes to a buck a month then year forward would be 24 higher, and current prices could hit 21 with forward (year) expectations at 45.

I don't see how this isn't a plausible scenario. The EIA is warning that it is likely to happen.

[Anonymous No.688006]

>>687944
>>687954
thanks for playing red team mate, but it's kind of strange how you'd say there's no doubt it could; do you think it will or not?

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/historical/CO/1986/0/continuous.html

using the past to predict the future, if we look at 1986 you'll see that after the double-dip, the price starts to ascend upward from around the same time. from 12 to 18 dollars by year end is 50% gains; i don't need oil to go back to 65, i only need it go back to 48 for me to lock in 30% on UWTI - every month after it is going to be compounding multiplier effect.

we have a difference of opinion on where oil bottoms out; i think you think it can go down even lower, even to the 20's whereas i believe it's incredibly unlikely because of a) the past not going any lower on the double dip and b) decline rates are going to pick up. the decline curve is really steep, but it won't return to seasonally normal levels for at least a year, on the optimistic side.

i agree that working off the full glut in a year is optimistic; what i expect to happen is that once oil stabilizes at $60, rigs will come back online and increase the flailing production at that time, 3 months moving average. when oil goes back to $60 is within 18 months, after next year's seasonality kicks in.

i don't think well efficiency is the best model to explain why production is so high. the turnaround based on rig efficiency is one thing, going from 30 days to 26, but well efficiency is a father stretch for me to believe. the productivity drilling reports show very steep declines that haven't narrowed out. they've been almost entirely offset by new wells coming online and their production numbers alone. we also know that as more wells are/1

finding the opportune time is always difficult; i believe it's now, you obviously don't, and that's cool too, sit back and wait. i think you'll be surprised by how fast oil prices will recover if history is any indication. from 16-12-16 within 3 months.

[Anonymous No.688012]

Any of you day flippers have your targets/ predictions for today's markets close? My estimates are around $42.50 a barrel is the low point, anyone else?

[Anonymous No.688032]

>>688006
as more wells are drilled in an area, the production of each well scales downward because of physics - pressure falls when there are more outlets. conventional wells don't have that same kind of decline as horizontal wells, in both per well decline and also the entire deposit in general.

i am bullish towards oil and i don't believe WTI can fall below 40. it would be a stretch to go below 42. why? not just because of assumptions based off of future production (which show an almost flat march april and will most likely show a declining april-may) but because the futures themselves are still in contango.

i don't expect net withdrawals until at least september and i think storage concerns are a legitimate worry. at the same time, i also know that additional storage capacity has been added at cushing and that the working capacity was at 70 million barrels where we currently adding 2 million or so barrels a week as the north dakota pipelines snake 85k barrels there a day. but by the same token, freight growth which has been growing 13% a year every year for 6 years is going to be able to deliver more oil to the refineries too. i don't think storage is really that big a worry if you factor in higher refinery optimization.

the storage for cushing are currently somewhere around 53% more oil than the seasonal average. that means you only need production to reduce by 1/3rd in order to normalize the oversupply side of the equation. the numbers are rather misleading when you hear about 80 year historic highs! and not so much about the 43% decline in rigs. and with 43% decline in rigs, with it being forecast to go down even lower, production will curb sharply. enough to lose 1/3 by the end of the year? probably not, but it'll curb enough to stop cushing from overflowing. i don't think storage space is too big of a problem.

i think oil bottomed out but as always, do your due diligence.

[Anonymous No.688143]

>>688006
>>688032


"using the chart from 1986"

uh.. the chart that shows that inflation adjusted oil back then sank to 20 bucks a barrel...

yeah.. you aren't strengthening the blue team argument with that...

i didn't even read the rest because i don't have time right now.. but i will read it later..

thats just my gut on reading the first sentence.

[Anonymous No.688154]

>>688143
sure i am; inflation adjusted oil doesn't make sense because oil doesn't inflate at the same price of the CPI. it's been unhinged from inflation for years, like real estate because it's a cost-driver for inflation for everything else. you're looking at the chart for the price pattern because the two are similar.

[Anonymous No.688158]

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/brent-crude-oil-last-day.html

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html

greens.

[Anonymous No.688180]

>>688006
>i don't think well efficiency is the best model to explain why production is so high


http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/summary.pdf

shows 2014 to 2015 efficiency gains per rig. if you go back and look at the 2012 numbers you will see a DOUBLING in productivity in the three year period. (meaning you need half as many rigs these days) not only do new rigs drill farther horizontally but they inject fracking fluids at higher pressures, effectively fracking larger areas faster.

your numbers are 30 days to 26.. and that might be right, but i swear i've seen much lower numbers. the number 18 days sticks in my mind. i can't find them right now with the googling i am doing.. and i apologize. maybe check your source and the date. i see articles that list 26 days as the turn around time from january of 2014. that's pretty old data in this industry at this point. if the time has fallen to even 24 from 30 that would be a ~25% increase in the number of wells a rig can drill in a year.. (and decrease in cost) a significant increase/decrease indeed.

refracking - much cheaper than drilling a new well. much much cheaper. so you might see production slack off.. and you might not. the cost of refracking a well can be 25% of the original fracking cost. and can reboost the productivity of a well significantly. in fact, when refracked with new higher efficiency equipment you could see almost a return to the original well productivity over the next year. Double the oil at 25% the cost? guess how many well owners will say "yes please" to that.

[Anonymous No.688188]

>>688032
>that means you only need production to reduce by 1/3rd in order to normalize the oversupply side of the equation.

oh is that all?

>80 year historic highs!
during which just 30 years ago oil gluts were not as large, but oil hit 20 bucks a barrel

>and not so much about the 43% decline in rigs

and no meaninful drop in production yet due to higher efficiency rigs

>production will curb sharply

SA says they estimate this won't happen till the end of 2015.

cushing is set to be full by late april at the latest with current production numbers. last time i check april was not in the last half of the year. in fact.. it's the very begginning of the second quarter, and only a couple weeks away at this point.
I hear what you are saying.. and i am playing devils advocate to a certain degree... playing red and blue team on purpose.. because these threads can get a bit one sided.

but seriously, last weeks production report and storage growth was a little low.. and if that keeps up it could be over already. but if that was a statistical anomaly we're in for a fucking wild ride down well into the 30s in the next couple weeks for sure.

with the average cost of production probably well above the current cost per barrel,, uwti is probably an ok long play - but you gotta worry about beta slippage. i'd rather get in when all hell breaks loose and I can set myself up a beta slippage buffer... I think there is plenty of time to wait for that to happen at the moment.

if things aren't moving lower by the next earnings season then it will be time for the bears to think about throwing in the towel and accepting fate. maybe.

[Anonymous No.688190]

>>688143
>; inflation adjusted oil doesn't make sense

inflation adjusted oil, oil priced in USD

...alright...

[nay !NUacgk0yxU No.688206]

I noticed that there's a lot of people talking about oil at $40. Iirc didn't it touch $39/barrel earlier this year for a day?

[Anonymous No.688245]

Now that oil is plummeting is it a good idea to buy financials? They're pretty low in canada already and looks like a good time to buy. Could be a good way to make your money work without dealing with oil volatility directly. Thoughts?

[Anonymous No.688249]

>>688245

you should be more worried about the dollar when it comes to financials than oil

[Anonymous No.688252]

>>688180
well efficiency is what i said, not rig efficiency because rig efficiency will be affected by things like how fast it takes to drill whereas well efficiency would be how much you can output per well. as you drill more horizontal wells in the same area, you'll get higher rig efficiency in terms of productivity but the production per well drops across all the wells.

a doubling in productivity over 3 years for production output makes sense because it takes time to set up the infrastructure, like salt-water disposal, pipelines and reducing drilling time, but it's not growth in production that experiences economies of scale. once that infrastructure is built, the production growth patterns are going to flatline.

18 days to drill a new well is something that i doubt very much, but maybe one of the roughnecks on the board can give us a grassroots estimate on how long it takes to drill. i've read reports that said 26 days so i'll use that number.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-10/drillers-take-second-crack-at-fracking-wells-to-cut-cost-energy

you mean frack en' pray? refracking is something that older companies may look to enhance technology on, but their productive use is limited because of technological constraints. not every operator will have the technical expertise to refrack old wells or the capital, or even have the ability to operate those wells profitably in the plays that they're invested in. it's also incredibly risky. we could see the technology being deployed in the next few years, but not across the board. everyone wants to say 25% for 2x the oil but how many actually have the technology, the competitive advantage to do so?

>>688188
>oh is that all?
53% = 153% of historic total; 1/3rd of 150 = 50; drop 50% = 100% or normal production to season

>during which just 30 years ago oil gluts were not as large, but oil hit 20 bucks a barrel

oil also topped out at what, 30 dollars a barrel? goes down to 12, close to 2/3 loss? /1

[Anonymous No.688257]

>>688249
It can't get much worse than right now can it? Already at 0.78 CAD to USD.
>>688206
I don't believe so.

[Anonymous No.688262]

>>688257

im just saying that the dollar holds more influence over financials than oil

[Anonymous No.688271]

>>688188
oil supply wasn't as large but demand also wasn't as large either, so unless they grew out severely out of proportion, there's nothing to worry about. population growth between 1986 to 2015 however, is indicative of much stronger demand.

>and no meaninful drop in production yet due to higher efficiency rigs
we've already seen meaningful drop in production; growth is plateauing, if not already diminishing in some regions. take a look at:

http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/summary.pdf

look at the indicated monthly change for april vs. march for 2014 and 2015. all the oil producers are in growth decline, with the bakken, eagle forn and niobrara are all showing decline growth (as in negative growth) and not just decline. it's the permian that's being the real MVP and that's because they're 80% oil 20% natural gas - and they're seeing growth decline too.

>SA says they estimate this won't happen till the end of 2015.
true, they did say that, but they also thought that they'd start seeing oil production decline in 2018. the productivity reports on the other hand paint a different picture.

>>688190
adjusting for oil inflation with the CPI is stupid because oil doesn't rise at the same rate as the mean average that inflation is calculated from. oil is a cost driver; it moves up much more, or much less, much faster. it's not representative. how are you adjusting for oil inflation? looking at the price of oil over the last 30 years, it went from 30 to 12 and then close to 140 before going to 100 and now, 43. the price movements aren't pegged to inflation; inflation is pegged to oil movements. that's why it's meaningless to try to find the 'real value' of oil based off of inflation because then you'd be running an infinite regression.

>>688206
nope, it touched down to 43 back in jan, and 42 today. i think the futures went to 33 though.

[Anonymous No.688564]

So I'm new to stocks and looking for some advice on these shares. Right now I'm focusing on stable stocks with dividends, But oil has me interested in a long term investment.

I mean it will rise in price again, it's a finite resource and is used for everything from creating plastic and roads to ingredients in shampoo. So to my question is the UWTI a reasonable long term investment or would i be better waiting for individual oil companies stock prices to drop and invest in those?

talk to me like the retard I am as I am very green to the market.

[Anonymous No.688572]

>>688564
Well disregard that question I did research and now see UWTI is not a good long term investment. Unless 1 to 2 years for oil to increase isn't considered long term.

[nay !NUacgk0yxU No.688630]

Maintained my small UWTI position.

Re-entered DWTI pre-market at ~154-155

[nay !NUacgk0yxU No.688631]

>>688630
my b 163.50

[Anonymous No.688633]

>>688271
Good points. Oil is the driver of everything

[Anonymous No.688635]

will oil make 42.25 today? find out on today's episode of dragonball z

[Anonymous No.688649]

oh my god lol

[Anonymous No.688657]

>>688649

Wonder what it'll be at tomorrow. Lol.

[Anonymous No.688674]

>>688657
that's the million dollar question, isn't it?

[Anonymous No.688698]

>>688657

-1

[Anonymous No.688753]

Is it true exxon is going to cut or suspend the dividend?

[Anonymous No.688760]

>>688635
Kek

[Anonymous No.688768]

lots of stops taken out at 1.9 kek

[Anonymous No.688798]

this is the bull trap for dwti
time to load up on uwti

[Anonymous No.688807]

>>688798
This has been said every day for the past week

[Anonymous No.688810]

>>688807

its cause people have no patience and keep losing money getting in uwti if they're holding for 1-2 days.

[Anonymous No.688835]

>>688810
>>688807


dwti is in a bubble phase right now
bull trap max price is 190

it went from 20 to 200 in a very short amount of time. very textbook.

[Anonymous No.688841]

Anyone buying today or are you still waiting for tomorrow?

[Anonymous No.688846]

>>688798
>time to load up on uwti

you're late to the party. i'm already -1,965 in uwti. you'll never catch me, sucker!

[Anonymous No.688848]

>>688841
i'm waiting for tomorrow so hard it hurts

[Anonymous No.688885]

>>688846

lol kekekekeke
still too early broseph

[Anonymous No.688901]

What is uwti doing right now? I have a limit order to get out at 2.03. I'm starting to get a little pissed.

[Anonymous No.688907]

>>688901

if you take one minute to look at the price of crude you'll see what uwti is doing.

[Anonymous No.688918]

>>688907
Trying to break 44?

[Anonymous No.688920]

>>688907
I'm seeing crude down .2% and uwti down over 3%

[Anonymous No.688921]

>>688245
This anon here. Financials up 2% for me. One eigth of my portfolio was in oil ETF and went up ~4.3%. Shouldn't have pussied out on oil but I'm happy with today's gains.

[Anonymous No.689000]

will UWTI do a R/S or will it end up going straight to $0 if Oil keeps going down?

[Anonymous No.689050]

>Pulled the trigger on DWTI at 162

I either lost my mind or I'm gonna cakewalk the profit through tomorrow's chaotic panic.

[nay !NUacgk0yxU No.689051]

>>689050
I'm on the other side of that trade....

[Anonymous No.689054]

>mfw tomorrow

[Anonymous No.689069]

UWTI below 1.95. If you dont buy in the next 15 minutes you're losing out on a huge win - UWTI is going through the roof tomorrow

[Anonymous No.689082]

>>689069

homie people have been saying that for a few weeks now. there's plenty of time to ride the upside of this energy mess

[Anonymous No.689098]

>>689054

[Anonymous No.689153]

>oil starts tanking as soon as the market closes

I didn't want to s-sleep today anyway

[Anonymous No.689161]

>>689153

It'll go back to 43 once asian market kicks in. API report has been pulling numbers out of their asses every week now.

[Anonymous No.689216]

The scared bulls in this thread convinced me to pick up ERY today, thanks guys.

[Anonymous No.689253]

>>689161

it's already at 44.5 now

[Anonymous No.689331]

>>689253
you're looking at the May contracts

Oil is at 42.50 for April

[Anonymous No.689374]

Well that sucks. Oil's plummeting. I bought UWTI at 2.08. How long should I expect to hold this before I can break even?

[Anonymous No.689386]

>>689374
Oil would have to go to $45-$46 for you to break even. This is assuming Oil goes back to that this week. The longer it takes to happen the more money you will end up losing due to leverage decay.

[Anonymous No.689391]

>>689331

[Anonymous No.689406]

>>689391
Like I said before, you're looking at May Oil futures.

I'm not sure why ToS switched /CL to May already when there's 3 days left until April contracts are done trading.

[Anonymous No.689414]

>>689406

i know i looked at the symbol
im more so saying why it's already switched
there's still trading days left as you said
im trying to find out if i can switch the month back but it just gives me /cl

[Anonymous No.689418]

>>689414

meh i can see price through its forward curve
tedious but meh

[Anonymous No.689420]

>>689414
Plus500 has switched too, it' really fucking annoying and gonna hurt the gainz

[Anonymous No.689449]

There might be a ton more oil in the markets if a deal between the USA and Iran is met.

I would just stay away from it at the moment.

[Anonymous No.689472]

Oil will most likely go below $40 immediately if the fed announces a rate increase.

[Anonymous No.689477]

>>689472
What is your reasoning for that?

Even stronger dollar?
Spike in the heart of the US economy leading to decreased demand?
Fed yields more attractive than contango plays leading to decreased demand?
All three?

[Anonymous No.689524]

gotta sleep. gotta sleep. can't.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O29mQbQMoOI

[Anonymous No.689555]

>>689472
That's the too easy answer. What is even more likely is that there will be a quick drop from the bots reading the news, and then a very sharp rally to catch everyone offguard. This is a costanza market.

[Anonymous No.689718]

So, right now, my plan for UWTI is to dollar-cost average $800 starting at what I hope to be $1.375, if not up to $1.4, through four entries. I'm not sure if I want to structure my increments through price or time, however, my target-exit is at $13.75. I would like for DWTI to be trading around $190 when I make my first entry.

I think DWTI is in the middle of a bull-trap which is a characteristic of an economic-bubble. It rose from $20 to $200 in a really short amount of time, which is very standard. (x10 increase) Being that the instrument is an E.T.N., it will fall faster than a normal stock would, and it's return to normal will eventually see the closing of the instrument. (maybe) Due to the forecast of a major fall for DWTI, I think a lot of the money in DWTI will move into UWTI, creating an even faster bubble for UWTI.

Combine the fall of DWTI with the possibility of an interest rate hike, UWTI looks very poised to benefit after tomorrow. The reason I pick $13.75 is because the last time price was trading at that level, there was a gap down that hasn't been filled, along with previous support levels. (even though you may say T.A. is useless for an E.T.N., its price is still influenced by liquidity and supply/demand for the instrument itself.)

[Anonymous No.689728]

>>689718
If oil is going to hang around below $50 a barrel for the rest of the year, how will UWTI make it to $13.75 by then?

[Anonymous No.689761]

>>689728

Well, either it goes back up to complete it's bull trap or the return to normalization just got closer.

[Anonymous No.689809]

>>689718
So for sure buy uwti tomorrow?

[Anonymous No.689828]

>>689809
>trusting your finances with an anonymous poster on a japanese image board who is literally posting a boner picture of some random anime

Besides where did he say buy UWTI tomorrow? He said his entry is at 1.37

[Anonymous No.689846]

>>689718
uwti would probably split before it hits 1.37 though

[Anonymous No.689856]

>>687340
I'm going to buy some Chevron right now. I'm in it for the long haul.

[Anonymous No.689859]

>>689828

>anime

Um... it's called "manga" actually.

[Anonymous No.689919]

>>689846
What?

[Anonymous No.689922]

>>689919
nigga do you even reverse split
>>689859
you're not helping yourself here...

[Anonymous No.689924]

>>689922
No I don't. Explain it to me.

[Anonymous No.689925]

>>689924
>>689922
Never mind I got it

[Anonymous No.689930]

>>689922

You're posting on an anime and manga website...

[Anonymous No.689933]

>>689930
Hey man I'm not saying anything against it I just think people should think for themselves and not blindly follow someone from here. I think 4chan is a great site not because of anime but because of the freedom of speech. Nobody is scared of calling someone out for being retarded and it leads to honest discussion lots of the time. I'm only pointing out the anime origins because it helps highlight the absurdity of trusting your life savings to a <1000 character post by ANYONE.

[Anonymous No.689940]

>>689933

Crude is in a bubble phase. DWTI has a lot of money that's exiting and there could be a significant flow of cash from DWTI to UWTI.

What do you think since you're calling me out?

[Anonymous No.689945]

>>689940
I was long today in oil too (oil stocks though not futures) but I exited after decent gains. I'm going to see what the market does on open like I usually do. I think we could definitely see a bounce tomorrow but if the news is bad then it could also certainly plummet further. I will see what the sentiment is and use tight stops if I enter. Good luck friend may the gains gods be with you.

[Anonymous No.690011]

>Bought 75 shares out of caution on monday or some shit
>only out like 6$
>Niggas mentioning it could drop further.
>Dunno if I should take the lose, and reump at a lower point or whatever.

Fuuck

[Anonymous No.690014]

>>689940

>Crude is in a bubble
>Crude prices are through the floor

I thought a bubble meant overoptimistic price hikes.

[Anonymous No.690034]

>>689940
>he thinks capital flows impact valuation of levered etfs.
>Crude is in a bubble, down 60% in less than a year

You need to stop trading.

[Anonymous No.690065]

going balls deep into UWTI today ahead of earnings. THIS IS IT. if the supply is 10 million like API says bulls are probably doomed. sell at a loss and preserve capital. if it's 3.7 like the analysts say and production holds at 9.3 million a day, then demand is going to be the bulls friend and the price will stop free-falling because storage concerns will be abated.

getting excited.

[Anonymous No.690071]

also: we'll see what the fed says about raising interest rates in june based on their wording today's meeting. 2 major factors here.

[Anonymous No.690074]

>>690065
when the SPR bought 5 million barrels last week, was it delivered or diverted straight outta cushing?

[Anonymous No.690075]

>>690074
the energy administration/SPR hasn't done anything yet; it was interest only. no commitment, but if they do, it should be withdrawn out of cushing directly.

[Anonymous No.690079]

>>690034

>10
>140
>this isn't a factor of 14

You need to look at a chart.

[Anonymous No.690094]

Alright so I'm going to catch this plunge so I can diversify my portfolio. What are some of the best stocks to pick up right now for a long bet. Energy,oil,shipping, or anything else.

[nay !NUacgk0yxU No.690113]

>>690065
Increased my position to 1500 shares. Sitting on lots of cash for the time being.

[Anonymous No.690121]

I can bearly stand the suspense

[Anonymous No.690128]

>>690121
Market is at a standstill until the rate release. Kind of annoying.

[Anonymous No.690145]

>Fed announces negative rates

I'm just curious to see how crazy the market reacts if it happens.

[Anonymous No.690147]

>>690113

What're you at, nearly 6,000 shares in right now?

[Anonymous No.690157]

For those with any absolute exposure to the oil market, you should consider hedging before the report comes out.

[Anonymous No.690183]

>>690157

I've got 155 bucks in it. I wholly expect to lose all of it.

[Anonymous No.690184]

9.6 Million increase

[Anonymous No.690186]

>>690183
Sounds like my luggage.

Oil supplies up 9 million barrels.

[Anonymous No.690187]

2.9kk build in cushing and 9.6kk build total

i sold at a loss and got out.

[Anonymous No.690188]

>>690186
Production also increase to 15.4 Million per day

[Anonymous No.690192]

The report dropped UWTI a few points, but it doesn't seem to have collapsed.

For someone long on UWTI, good time to scale in?

[Anonymous No.690196]

>>690192
Hmmm UWTI is gaining but why?...

[Anonymous No.690197]

>>690192
i don't understand it. the price of oil seems to be headed up

dafaq?

[Anonymous No.690198]

>>687340

Patience little ones.

Oil has so much further to drop.

I am surprised that WTI isn't at 35 already..

[Anonymous No.690201]

anyone else here bearish on Oil?

Still waiting to cover the 5k shares of UWTI I shorted at 2.07 on Monday.

[Anonymous No.690202]

>>690197
I'm just as confused, does someone know something I don't?

[Anonymous No.690205]

>>690202
The market is standing still because of the 2pm fed rate news.

[Anonymous No.690208]

>>690202
Gasoline storage decreased by 4.5mil barrels forecast was for 900k decrease. It may be an interpretation that demand is picking up or something.
That's all I could find that would warrant an increase.

Also like >>690205 said Fed generally weighs on the market.

[Anonymous No.690213]

This may be a good time to position yourself as far as oil goes since it's waiting to react after the Fed decision. It depends on what you think the Fed will do and how oil will react to that in combination with the weekly report.

[Anonymous No.690214]

damn this day is fucking volatile for my portfolio
half of my folio has averaged 5% moves every day for the past two weeks

[Anonymous No.690215]

>>690213
>>690208
i think i'm done timing for oil; i was tricked last week on a one-off and i paid a heavy price for it. exited my short early and bought into long and held too late.

i'm eating losses when i should've been eating gains.

[Anonymous No.690217]

Report is so bad, buying DWTI now and selling it on Friday doesn't seem like a bad idea at all.

[Anonymous No.690223]

>>690215
You thought you saw an opportunity and took it, you also paid the consequence of being wrong.
You can exit oil completely or simply find a new opportunity when it presents itself. There will always be money to make it's your decision whether to capitalize on that.
This trade is done, what matters is the next trade.

[Anonymous No.690224]

Ok guys so if Fed raises interest rates, will oil go up or down?

[Anonymous No.690225]

>>690224
down. it'll go down.

[Anonymous No.690228]

i want DWTI to 190

[Anonymous No.690229]

>>690224
up. it'll go up.

[Anonymous No.690230]

>>690225
>>690229
Thanks guys, all is clear to me now.

[Anonymous No.690232]

>>690228

[Anonymous No.690237]

>>690230

When in doubt, bet on it moving forward.

[Anonymous No.690239]

i'm re-entering DWTI at 174.

even at this price it's probably profitable...

[Anonymous No.690244]

>>690239

Holy shit you are bold!

I want to do this, but I have a sense of self preservation....

>tfw when I bought in at 120 and sold at 125
>tfw my 250k could be 340k now
>feels batman

[Anonymous No.690247]

>>690244

I'm gritting my teeth really hard every point DWTI goes up, I had my reasoning to invest by the 4th, I could've seen sick gains. But gotta have money to invest money.

[Anonymous No.690250]

>>690244
Hedging.
If you truly want to feel Batman hedge. That way you can win no matter what. You may never win big, but Batman never defeats the Joker either so what does it matter.

[Anonymous No.690251]

if you're bullish on Oil wouldn't it be better to short DWTI and let the decay work with you instead of going long UWTI?

[Anonymous No.690253]

>>690251

dont think you can short sell

[Anonymous No.690257]

>>690253
you're right, it won't let me short it on ToS.

I wonder why I can easily short UWTI though.

[Anonymous No.690259]

>>690257
Volume.
It's harder to borrow shares needed to short for DWTI.

[Anonymous No.690262]

What are the chances they raise rates right now? I think it's about 30% august is more like 70%sure they raise

[Anonymous No.690278]

>>690262
There is not a strong reason for the Fed to raise rates, at the immediate moment. They will most likely be hawkish, but won't raise rates.
Q1 GDP is two weeks away roughly and February CPI is next week. Though, the Fed probably has rough numbers of those.

[Anonymous No.690287]

The rate Announcement is at 11am pacific?

[Anonymous No.690291]

What's the smart play here? Sell UWTI, wait for the rate increase announcement, then buy after UWTI plunges?

[Anonymous No.690296]

>>690287

2:30 PM Eastern is 11:30 AM Pacific

http://www.federalreserve.gov/whatsnext.htm
http://www.ustream.tv/federalreserve

>>690166

[Anonymous No.690340]

the ETF's aren't tracking anymore. bears are scared and bulls are getting excited.

i didn't think it was possible to feel like a bigger idiot but i do now, buying at 174. it's 166 right now.

[Anonymous No.690342]

>>690340
How many shares did you pick up?

[Anonymous No.690344]

>>690340
well you will easily make your money back and then some if rates get increased.

[Anonymous No.690354]

>>690340

It's just another bullish rally by bottom callers. This shit happens every wednesday. Calm your tits, inventory report was bad enough I doubt you'll see oil by 45 next week.

[Anonymous No.690358]

>>690342
55.

i've got a sell order on standby in case it goes to 160.

i really hope the fed raises interest rates.

[Anonymous No.690359]

>>690237
Or sliding back. It is the market and irrational is normal.

[Anonymous No.690380]

>>690197
Keep in mind that everyone got used to expensive energy, so there's a lot more irrational bulls than there are irrational bears because people know that oil goes back up right?

[Anonymous No.690383]

>>690359

Price can never move back in time.

[Anonymous No.690384]

>>690192
uwti is not really something to go long on as it tries to track the 3x daily difference in price. So oil could go up a lot, then down a lot and be up overall but if it went down faster than it went up uwti would be worth less than when it started.

[Anonymous No.690395]

How do you guys buy several dozen shares of shit like DWTI at 150+ a pop? Seems like you have to buy so much to make any money. Compared to cheaper stocks that can rise 500% in the same amount of time the expensive stocks rise 10%

[Anonymous No.690396]

>>690395
Obviously I'm a poorfag. I just never pictured anons with 10 grand to dump into one trade

[Anonymous No.690397]

>>690358
So basically oil only has to go up about 2% before you SL is hit?
If DWTI had theoretical perfect tracking every 1 cent move in oil is worth 3 cents in DWTI. So for every cent oil moves it would effect your position by $1.65.
What's working for you is the May contract start date. Once they come they'll sink down to $42 or lower most likely, there isn't much that will stop it at this point. May is at ~$44.65 currently if it drops to $42.65 by Monday or so that's 4.5% or 13.5% DWTI theoretical. Short term, however, reduce your exposure. 2% Up isn't much a minor bull rally could produce it, though there isn't really good news hiding somewhere, but it could still happen.

[Anonymous No.690426]

>>690397
>If DWTI had theoretical perfect tracking every 1 cent move in oil is worth 3 cents in DWTI.

No the price of oil and the price of DWTI are not the same.

The tracking works based off percentages.

1% up on oil, is 3% down on DWTI - but you can't make that work out to specific dollars and cents because DWTI and the cost of a barrel of oil are no equal and are not meant to be.

It is only coincidence that DWTI is roughly 3x the cost of oil.

UWTI is no where near 1/3 the cost of WTI.

[Anonymous No.690435]

>>690383
Why not?
>all this has happened before and it will happen again

[Anonymous No.690436]

>DWTI dropping like a rock

Fuck me.

[Anonymous No.690437]

>>690435

Cause we can't travel back in time, silly. I can't trade yesterday, now can I?

[Anonymous No.690439]

>>690396
I'm twenty and have 21 grand... maxed out tfsa

step up senpai

[Anonymous No.690445]

>>690437
No but the price can change to what it was the day before.

[Anonymous No.690480]

looks like people are panicking before the announcement

[Anonymous No.690482]

UWTI SKYROCKETTING

[Anonymous No.690493]

Finally cleared my rats nest of trash uwti position. Thank you based yellen.

[Anonymous No.690495]

Why is UWTI going balls out? What the fuck happened?

[Anonymous No.690500]

>>690495
>market calced in rate raise, strong dollar
>rate raise does not happen, weaker dollar
>weaker dollar, higher oil

[Anonymous No.690505]

when are earning announcements for the majority of oil companies? i'm too lazy to look it up right now, if the bottoms been hit atleast for now can scalp some money off it riding up

[Anonymous No.690506]

>>690426
Yes, and DWTI is not 3x the cost of WTI. Price and percentage are correlated, that means every 1 cent movement in WTI produces a percentage, that doesn't necessarily mean it would produce an actual price in DWTI. What price DWTI at has nothing to do with the price of oil as you said so it being a coincidence that it is near 4x the price of oil is meaningless. Where the price action will be from where it is determines what effect DWTI should have, it is necessary to include price. To say a 1 cent move in one produces a three cent move in the other is incorrect as you said because it is based on percentages. At ~$44.65 a $0.01 move would cause 0.2% move in oil that'd be 0.6% in DWTI which would be ~$0.11 in price. Since there is buyers and sellers determining the pricing of DWTI it will obviously not be as simple as that.

[nay !NUacgk0yxU No.690508]

>>690493
Me too... I was getting scared. I picked up DWTI at 148~

[Anonymous No.690518]

thank god for stop loss order.

things could have been so much worse for me...

[Anonymous No.690527]

Fed was Dovish that was what happened.
Well really if you look at the press release nothing happened.

[Anonymous No.690538]

oh well. Got greedy and decided to wait for fed decision before I covered my UWTI short. Still made some money but I would've made alot more if I covered earlier.

[Anonymous No.690542]

now to figure out if the downtrend of Oil is over

[Anonymous No.690547]

>>690542
You think the Fed releasing the equivalent of a warmed bottle of milk will kill the over supply of oil?
Cheap oil is here to stay for quite some time.

9.6 million increase in storage, even after the rig count dropped last week, production rose.

As Sarah Palin said, drill baby drill.

[Anonymous No.690552]

>>690547
well I'm looking at it short term. I don't want to be on the wrong side of the trade if Oil goes near $50

[Anonymous No.690560]

>>690239
GET RAPED MATE.

[Anonymous No.690566]

TARGET 14 FOR UWTI

[Anonymous No.690571]

>>690560
i got buttraped pretty hard. if i didn't have that sell order, i'd have gotten raped even harder.

all in all, it was a terrible experience. would not recommend.

[Anonymous No.690578]

Lost hard on DWTI and bailed for now, but that inventory report still bothers me.

[Anonymous No.690581]

>>690552
$50 Is more medium term*, contract roll over does go both ways; but the dollar high won't last. We're best of the worst after all.
*I consider medium term DWTI from 1-6 months. Short term 3 weeks at best.

>>690571
It sucks worse for you since you got hurt by UTWI and DTWI in the same day.

[Anonymous No.690582]

>>690578
brohan, i sold my UWTI to buy DWTI and lost on both.

now i'm sitting on some money and i'm not sure what to do with it.

[Anonymous No.690583]

[Anonymous No.690584]

>>690581
i am soul-crushingly exhausted.

[Anonymous No.690590]

>>690584
When the market moves against you in both directions in one day, that's when you close up shop for the day, and go crack open a beer or something.

[Anonymous No.690595]

>>687340
Holdan GTE, EXXI and MDR.
Aiite day, but supply issues are very real and the dollar could jump back anytime

[Anonymous No.690597]

>>690583

[Anonymous No.690599]

I'm holding onto DWTI. Bought in at 171. There's no way it stays this low a week from now with that inventory report, right?

[Anonymous No.690602]

>>690599

you'll get fucked by time decay regardless
get to break even and get out and look for the next bubble
crude has popped

[Anonymous No.690605]

>>690599
Bears went home so the Bulls could come out to play today.
Tomorrow there'll be a lot of taking profit, even at the end of today there'll be some.

[Anonymous No.690607]

>>690599

we had inventory reports and oversupply reports like this for a month and wti sat at 51 bucks a barrel and dwti sat at 120 and went as low as 100.

The market is a shit fest that won't logically react to supply and demand.

long term, the market may have to admit it is incorrect and make a move.. but no one can predict the next 24 hours or even week.

[Anonymous No.690611]

shorted UWTI again, 2.5k @ 2.15.

[nay !NUacgk0yxU No.690616]

Alright, /biz/, now is the time we meet and discuss... What's the game plan?

Evidently, demand is up but so is supply. Moreover, it looks as if supply will continue to increase because SA still doesn't have what they want.

SA knows oil won't be sustainable in the long run because other sources of energy are more efficient and cheaper hence why they're trying to force other people out while they can.

Right now the bull argument is seasonality, low historical prices, and threat of war, and decreasing rig count

The bear argument is supply > demand
Supply growth
and trend momentum

Personally, I'm bearish because, logically, it can only go down unless something causes demand > supply. However, we know that the market can be irrational....

What do?

[Anonymous No.690619]

>>690607
>Keynes was a better financial analyst than an economist

[Anonymous No.690623]

>>690599

Trade fundamentals, not emotion

[Anonymous No.690625]

So is UWTI goig to keep going up or is 2.16 it for now?

[Anonymous No.690627]

>>690616
Unless you have large amounts of disposable income to lose, I'd say stay out of oil. Shit is way too volatile .

[Anonymous No.690628]

>>690625
Stays at 2.15-2.17 then drops after hours to 2.08 from people collecting gains. Tomorrow rallies then drops to 2.00 because of oversupply then next Wednesday blows to 2.25

[Anonymous No.690629]

>>690602
What is this time decay? I've seen it mentioned a few times

[Anonymous No.690634]

>>690628
What happens Wednesday?

[Anonymous No.690636]

>>690629
the decay of time over the price of a barrel. a barrel's price "decays" the longer it's held up in port, etc.

[Anonymous No.690647]

I seriously had a dream that UWTI closed and after hours jumped 3$ then the next day premarket jumped another 3$ i woke up thinking... Nah won't happen....

[Anonymous No.690650]

>>690646
Continuing with the bread and circuses

[Anonymous No.690806]

>>690250
You can still lose money hedging the etf's, and probably will if that is what you mean by hedging

[Anonymous No.691569]

why are so many of you messing around with uwti instead of just using /cl, /qm or USO options for leverage. Why the interest in owning something that says right in the prospectus "we will rebalance this every night, if you hold this long term, expect to lose a substantial portion of your investment"