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58350927 No.58350927 [Reply] [Original]

everyone seems to think this is only a local top, not the cycle top, and that btc will go to 100k eventually in the next 1-2 years
what if this is the cycle top?

>> No.58350946

>>58350927
Then alts are going to the same price they were half a year ago and I get to slurp

>> No.58350959

>>58350927
Welcome to "will line go up or down"

>> No.58350976

>>58350959
>>58350946
do u guys think this could be the cycle top? i mean memecoins went crazy these past few month

>> No.58350984

>>58350927
If it's a cycle top then it means we get a recession real enough that the media/government can't change the definition of; boomer bags get btfo so it's a net win in the long run.

>> No.58350997

>>58350976
Might be, might not be. Place your bet.

>> No.58351002

>>58350976
the price could increase, but it also might decrease

>> No.58351005

the answer is pretty simple: a cycle (if you are rererring to the 4 years cycles) is defined as something that starts after the halving
so this can't be the cycle top, only the pre-halving pump top
of course, it's totally possible that the cycle top will be lower than the pre-halving pump top, but i find it pretty silly and unlikely since miners are still getting 6.25 btc each block, which is insane at the current price

>> No.58351177

>>58351005
do you know what the cost to mine 1 bitcoin will be after the halving?

>> No.58351206

>>58351177
yes, doubled

>> No.58351251

>>58351206
what is the current cost to mine 1 bitcoin?
looks like it' currently 50k, so after halving it will cost 100k to mine 1 bitcoin?

https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29435/bitcoin-production-total-cost

>> No.58351363

>>58351251
Not everyone has an electric cost. It's proof of work. It's not proof of dollar buy.

>> No.58351592

>>58351251
but that depends on the current difficulty, no? basically what happened at every halving will happen again (miners capitulate and stop mining, so difficulty decreases, so new miners join, so difficulty increases, the usual process that's unironically programmed)

>> No.58351703

When you have reach the top of the mountain you can go higher

>> No.58351827

>>58350927
the cycle hasn't even started
there's been no talk of crypto in the normiesphere

>> No.58351850

>>58351251
>https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29435/bitcoin-production-total-cost
how do they calculate that cost? do they include price of hardware and land or what? That can't just be total energy cost.

>> No.58351936

>>58350927
BTC will almost certainly go to $100k at some point. I don't think anyone genuinely believes otherwise except a few contrarians who have a vested interest in selling something else and that's just their public persona, they may actually be bullish privately.
In any case, this would be a pretty weak cycle and mark the end of big cycles all together for BTC if this was the macro cycle top.
It's more likely it was a micro cycle top and that price consolidates sideways for a while.
There is usually a sell off around the halving because it's a sell the news type of event bringing in a lot of amateur retail. Once they get frustrated that they weren't made into over night millionaires they sell and the rally begins.
I think these are buying opportunities and market participants just need to stomach 30-50% draw downs and accumulate more or at least just hold.
The type of sentiment expressed ITT is exactly what you want to see where the enthusiasm is wiped out and people genuinely question if price will go higher.
Everyone wants a comfy 10x, no one wants to hold through the chop.
Reminder it's called the halving because your portfolio value gets halved