/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.57480347]

>There isnt going to be a recession
>Unemployment is a lagging indicator

Feb 2 8:30 am they release january job numbers.

How will they play off 4%+ unemployment?
What will be the excuse?

Inb4 Market pumps because of interest rate cuts when people lose their jobs.

[Anonymous No.57480383]

>>57480347
hi can you explain this to me like im 6
does this means my bitcorn go up or down?

[Anonymous No.57480400]

>>57480383
it means that they will be forced to cut interest rates when the unemployment goes up the next few months.

the recession always starts in the months after they cut rates.

im looking at a 6 month timeline before shit hits the fan.

hoping for the early BTC pump that tops out by april.

the stock market dumps begins two months after the first rate cut.

[Anonymous No.57480420]

in fact bitcoin 4 year super cycles oddly correlate to stock market tops. but im worried this one will be cut short

[Anonymous No.57480430]

>>57480400
hi thank you for respond
ok so btc will pump next 2 month
how high do you think it will go?
and also will we get alt season too?
thanks for your insight

[Anonymous No.57480431]

>>57480347
evil putin!

[Anonymous No.57480448]

>>57480347
Aren't these figs total bullshit now? Something about menulog pajeets, uber gigs, people working 2 jobs and healthcare/government jobs replacing full time workers?

[Anonymous No.57480450]

>>57480430
bitcoin wil HOPEFULLY pump over the next 3 months.

remember altcoins always have their huge 10x pumps and then the BTC crash happens within a week of that happening.

so when you see shib/Bonk hitting 20-50 bil market cap. that means its time to leave crypto completely.

and if my theory is correct, it also means its time to exit the stock market and buy the bottom in 2025.

[Anonymous No.57480455]

>>57480400
Agree on all points except some indicators I’ve been monitoring improving my we have a bit more time before the music stops. My base case is SHTF in Q3 possibly Q4

[Anonymous No.57480469]

>>57480455
Imply* phonenigger here

[Anonymous No.57480484]

>>57480450
thank you sound pretty smart
are you usually correct in your prediction?
my entire family future depends on your call
thank you

[Anonymous No.57480506]

>>57480484
honestly id usually say dont listen to me.

but people will pump the markets on the idea of fed rate cuts. But when the rate cuts actually come they will sell the news and the recession will start.

so yes. get out of the stock market when they cut rates. As the rate cut narrative is the last gas in the tank.

[Anonymous No.57480562]

Yield curve has been screaming massive recession since 2022. The FED won't cut rates until at least July this year so expect more layoffs to top this shitshow

[Anonymous No.57480571]

>>57480506
This although it’s important to watch the yield curve when this is happening for a clearer picture. Yield curve is still steeply inverted and shit won’t be happening until it goes positive with a violent move. Generally this will be on rate cuts but the curve will indicate which cut broke the back of the market

[Anonymous No.57480582]

>>57480562
Kek, nice

[Anonymous No.57480598]

>>57480506
that sounds great
do you think the DXY will go down under 100

[Anonymous No.57480614]

glad to see there are a few other people who understand this.

Watching the stock market pump unrelentlessly and the news media constantly talking about recession fears being over, while the majority of america can barely afford groceries, is beginning to get frustrating.

What are you guys planning on buying during the recession?

I will be DCAing into TQQQ, the triple leverage nasdaq ETF that was up 11,000% from 2011-2019.

i just plan on buying some every month and riding it out as my cash cow the next decade.

[Anonymous No.57480664]

>>57480614
No solid plans at of yet, still just adding things to watch lists and gonna wait to see who is going to get gibs. If helicopter money for all I’ll probably just be in gold and bitcoin but I’ll see. Also am from Australia so going to have to see how the shitstorm affects us like usual and if there’s any good cheapies in our mining sector. Muir can QQQs seem like a good bet at this point though

[Anonymous No.57480686]

>>57480664
gold typically dumps initially with the market and then makes a run up, but eventually is outperformed by the stock market pretty quickly after the bottom.

[Anonymous No.57480769]

>>57480686
This is true, it’s more a personal preference of how I invest. I only like to majority hold what I can have a good onderstanding of the value proposition and have high conviction in, I’ll likely get outperformed but I won’t get shaken out. Doesn’t mean I won’t make small bets on shitcoins or tech stocks but that’s funny money

[Anonymous No.57480802]

>>57480400
"recession" may be short-lived because of increased printing when a severe downturn does finally happen. the run will come after that, not before. run in 2025 as usual. sell in 2025 and buy again late 2026.

[Anonymous No.57480898]

>>57480562
Recessions hit shortly after the yield curve reverts.
Fasten your seatbelts.

[Anonymous No.57482593]

Youll See

[Anonymous No.57482611]

>>57480347
Shouldn't Freds unemployment rate fluctuate between 0 and 100%?

[Anonymous No.57482618]

>>57480347
why should unemployment go up?
are you hallucinating?

[Anonymous No.57482661]

>>57480898
define shortly
3 months?
6 months?

[Anonymous No.57482872]

>>57480347
>How will they play off 4%+ unemployment?
Even though I agree with the sentiment that we SHOULD be in a recession, 4% unemployment might not even be likely.
The layoffs are all higher/middle paying white collar jobs, concentrated in tech and finance. Job gains are whats keeping the numbers good, but they don't report what jobs are actually gained.
The jobs are nearly all low-pay, irregular hours or both, concentrated in healthcare, hospitality and government, which itself is mostly in education.
The Fed can't cut rates with the "official" unemployment rate so low, and the GDP still looking good, because that would be admitting how fake the economy actually is.

[Anonymous No.57482929]

>>57482872
So i was right they are just going to print jobs

[Anonymous No.57482939]

>>57482929
where do you get 4% unemployment from?
your thread is nonsensical without explanation

[Anonymous No.57482953]

>>57482939
4% unemployment tomorrow at 830 am est

[Anonymous No.57482965]

>>57480400
>will be forced
They won't be forced to do shit. Cutting rates now completely undoes all of the work to get inflation under control. Rate cuts aren't happening until at least Q3 at a minimum.

[Anonymous No.57482978]

[Anonymous No.57482986]

>>57482929
>print jobs
somewhat yes. Most of these jobs are defined from boomers, healthaides, nurses and other specialists to clean their diapers and keep them alive at all costs to spend their money. Bartenders, servers, cooks and cleaners to suck up all the wealth they've accumulated.
Teachers is just a revolving door at this point, it doesn't pay enough in most places to deal with mongrel spawn and parents, so they are constantly hiring, with bus drivers, jannies, lunch ladies, facilities maintenance, security, and all the useless admin busywork to manage them and the parents
They can keep the illusion of full employment up for a long time, while they continue pumping stealth QE to whatever overleveraged bank or institution needs it.

[Anonymous No.57482998]

>>57482953
Where do you get that from?

[Anonymous No.57483016]

>>57480347
If it pumps because things got worse in going to tear my hair out I've been waiting for a dip since fucking december I let some fag convince me to sell at 36k

[Anonymous No.57483171]

>>57482953
go fuck yourself you nigger

[Anonymous No.57483336]

>>57482661
1-5 years later on average

[Anonymous No.57483347]

>>57483336
>number might go down sometime in the next five years

What a brave prediction. kys

[Anonymous No.57483382]

>>57483347
Real answer is 12 to 24 months after inversion of the yield curve4jghk.

[Anonymous No.57483414]

>>57483382
>>57483347
You see, it's really only 1-2 years, but if it doesn't happen by then, there's a fantastic chance of one in the next three years. It's actually higher than the chance in the first two

[Anonymous No.57483436]

Does FRED adjust when they revise the numbers months later? You probably won't get your 4% because they'll report a more "reasonable" looking number then revise it the bad way once people stop paying attention.

[Anonymous No.57483438]

>>57480450
Interesting. Are you saying that this halving cycle will not follow the past pattern? I mean if our time horizon is that short then its unlikely that BTC reaches all that much beyond last ATH. And I think it's important that dollars have lost 50% buying power in real terms... So BTC won't even be worth what it was at ATH.

[Anonymous No.57484509]

>>57483382

[Anonymous No.57484533]

>>57484509
>>57483336
>>57483347
>>57483414

The top will be Q2 2026.

At least of this cycle. Bitcoin will halve by around March/April 2024, which will be a short "sell the news" moment.

Shortly after that, price will recover and we'll see Bitcoin break new ATHs.

[Anonymous No.57484555]

>>57480347
How will you react when there isn't a 4%+ unemployment? Will you off yourself in shame?

[Anonymous No.57484598]

It's coming. It's bad.

[Anonymous No.57484646]

>>57482986
Good post, you understand this shitty, retarded game very clearly.

[Anonymous No.57484662]

>>57480562
they are tricking you to sell. you are looking at charts about scams build ontop of scam (dollars). none of this b.s matters, just accumulate bitcoin.

[Anonymous No.57484756]

They held the crash so it will happen nicely during Trumps term. After that they can label him the worst president ever and kill his popularity.

It's by design and Trump knows that, he is the controlled opposition. Act accordingly.

[Anonymous No.57484803]

>>57482998
BLS jobs survey US

[Anonymous No.57484828]

The conference board index has NEVER failed to predict every recession. This is not one indicator but a combination of TEN indicators that tells you a recession is coming.

[Anonymous No.57485049]

>>57482998
this is the level of people that argue with you on biz and dont know the most basic of economic indicators
a 15 second google search could have led you to the answer

[Anonymous No.57485100]

>>57484828
sir i cannot help but notice that this looks exactly like 2007 before the giga dump

[Anonymous No.57485178]

>>57485100
dont worry they will not allow a recession before the elections
they will fake all metrics and print so much money just to kick the can down the road, but after november this year thats when it will all be unleashed

[Anonymous No.57485185]

>>57480400
>im looking at a 6 month timeline before shit hits the fan.
It's funny how much these guys make the obvious seem like it was hard to conclude.

THE ENTIRETY OF BIDEN WAS TO CLEAR WAY FOR TRUMP TO RESET THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM.

Nixon was used the same way. Incredibly well loved leader (at least supported, 49 state landslide).
Then with all that support he ends the gold standard and they get rid of him forthwith.

Trump will Re-Fi the entire thing just like he's done his whole life and everyone will support it because of MUH BAD BIDEN.
So yea...six months is right and perfect timing and it's been the timing for a decade now.

[Anonymous No.57485313]

>>57480448
Most of the numbers that come out about inflation, GDP, unemployment, job creation, etc. Seems very flawed, like they don't really measure what they supposedly measure.
One would be better off just ignoring these reports, just wing it on intuition and anecdotes.

[Anonymous No.57485332]

>>57485185
Trump will just start seizing all Chinese assets outside of China and auctioning them off as recompensation for COVID. The Belt and Road becomes the bones of an American empire.

[Anonymous No.57485478]

>>57482661
See >>57480562

[Anonymous No.57485554]

>>57484662
>just accumulate bitcoin.
this. It doesn't matter if the US economy crashes and burns if you've already cashed out into Bitcoin. Bitcoin is unironically a lifeboat (thank you Satoshi), but most people will be too dumb to jump onto it until too late.

[Anonymous No.57485564]

>>57485554
nigger bitcoin is literally a leveraged nasdaq now lmao

[Anonymous No.57485610]

It is so obvious that they are keeping the economy artificially coiled up until Trump comes into office, and then they'll let the recession pop off.

[Anonymous No.57485664]

>>57485610
Trump would do that himself. He's a real estate mogul. All he cares about is low interest rates and free money. They wouldn't have even raised rates if he won in 2020.