/smg/ - STOCK MARKET GENERAL

[Anonymous No.56417310]

Friday Night Edition

>Educational sites:
https://www.investopedia.com/
https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain

>Financial TV Streams:
https://watchnewslive.tv/watch-cnbc-live-stream-free-24-7/
http://www.livenewson.com/american/bloomberg-television-business.html
https://watchnewslive.tv/watch-fox-business-network-fbn-free-24-7/

>Charts:
https://www.tradingview.com
https://www.finscreener.com
https://www.koyfin.com/
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com

>Screeners:
https://finviz.com/
https://www.tradingview.com/screener
https://etfdb.com/

>Options
https://www.optionsplaybook.com/options-introduction/
https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com
https://optionstrat.com/
https://www.optionistics.com/quotes/option-prices

>Pre-Market and Live data:
https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures
https://finance.yahoo.com/

>Calendars
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar
https://www.earningswhispers.com/calendar
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

>Boomer Investing 101:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started

>Misc:
https://tradingeconomics.com/
https://finance.yahoo.com/trending-tickers
https://market24hclock.com/
https://wallmine.com/
https://fintel.io/
https://www.dividendchannel.com/drip-returns-calculator
https://brokerchooser.com/
https://www.chathamfinancial.com/technology/us-market-rates

Previous: >>56415247

[Anonymous No.56417317]

any updates on the wells fargo situation?

[Anonymous No.56417326]

It has been getting more and more painfully obvious nobody wants to hold over the weekend.
What a bunch of fucking pussies in the finance world.

[Anonymous No.56418350]

>>56417310
What's going on here?

[Anonymous No.56418353]

I don't get it. Why hold $SPY when you can earn more money with less risk in intermediate duration treasuries? If the markets were efficiency $SPY should have crashed more.

[Anonymous No.56418359]

I'm so glad that the Federal Reserve is an omnipotent entity, capable of stopping inflation at the drop of a hat, capable of reversing a recession instantly, able to instantly fix the economy. I'm so glad that the Federal Reserve are Gods incapable of doing any wrong. Boy am I glad that they are faultless, completely competent, able to perfectly manage the economy with God like control. Surely, the Federal Reserve has all of our best interests at heart.

[Anonymous No.56418360]

This dumb fuck grifter has been buying the entire way down, and finally protects his tweets after market close today.

[Anonymous No.56418361]

First for bears are fucking wrong and there's a 0% chance that the Fed and Big Money is going to let them win by shorting

[Anonymous No.56418362]

the weekend is here
but the market dumped
it feels like a dog
jumped on me and humped

[Anonymous No.56418375]

>>56418359
Me too, fren, it is very comforting. Also the Treasury. Together they are our 8D chess masters for us against the world. WAGMI.

[Anonymous No.56418376]

I voted for Biden btw.

[Anonymous No.56418382]

>>56417310
I don't get it. You make something like 30% yoy this year. You then swap to 30 year treasuries yielding 5% and just claim the easy money. And then when all the money comes pouring back in to treasuries to chase the yield. New yield goes down, price of the treasuries themselves go up because buyers. And then sell at a gain on the notes themselves and move back in to the market. No?

[Anonymous No.56418389]

My investments are with great companies.
They will come back.

[Anonymous No.56418395]

if we killed every nigger in the united states the entire stock market would moon

[Anonymous No.56418414]

So I can spend all my time researching companies for weeks and investing chump change to have the possibility of making tiny gains on my chump change
Or I can just get a real job or make and sell a real good or service
Investing seems to only make sense if you're stupid rich and even then why do it yourself and not just pay someone else to do that shit for you

[Anonymous No.56418426]

>>56418414
I'm up well over 100% on the SOXL shares I bought last year. Time in the market, my guy

[Anonymous No.56418439]

>>56418426
I should have specified short term investing. Just buying and holding indexes until near retirement is fine

[Anonymous No.56418443]

>>56418439
What about buying and holding SOXL for ten years? I'll be genuinely surprised if SOXL isn't back in the hundreds eventually

[Anonymous No.56418447]

Quality wise, /dig/ is mogging /smg/

[Anonymous No.56418453]

>>56417317
???

[Anonymous No.56418456]

I'm thinking on Tuesday Ill playwith Microsoft going up since Snap is never fun. Then on wednesday I'm going to play with IBM. Ill be cheering for theta gang but I dont know how to make money off that so Ill ask chatgpt about it later. After that if there is any money left, I think I'm goin in on calls for Tesla. some stupid shits going to happen and I will be there for it

[Anonymous No.56418461]

>>56418382
Kinda. You lock in short term ones that you can hold until maturity. Buying 30 years is just as risky as stocks.

[Anonymous No.56418467]

>>56418360
>godzilla trader
>blows up his folio
on brand really

[Anonymous No.56418480]

>>56418447
Like we ever cared about quality...

[Anonymous No.56418490]

i'm not pleased with the end result, but at least i know for sure i can start shorting this piece of shit stock to $0. Elon Musk, your days as an "entrepeneur" are fucking over.

[Anonymous No.56418491]

>>56418461
Very true. But say the 30 year goes to 2.5%. You would make an absolute killing reselling them.

[Anonymous No.56418503]

>>56418490
What the fuck is wrong with people like you? Tesla bears have literally always been wrong, like for years. Your never-Elon shit is so shortsighted.

[Anonymous No.56418533]

>>56418491
Thats doubtful unless fed cuts to zero. You're looking at what 50-60% gains. If you are holding treasuries for shtf, then yeah be prepared to hold to maturity.

[Anonymous No.56418538]

>>56418376
Biden is the best president America ever had.

[Anonymous No.56418549]

>>56418353
Why not keep accumulating SPY?
Eventually things will go bull again and you dont know when it'll happen.
SPY also has great options volume for learning more of those if you keep buying 100s of shares

[Anonymous No.56418571]

>>56418350
microcap company, a calm autumn breeze would be enough to move the price

[Anonymous No.56418594]

i literally know nothing

[Anonymous No.56418600]

>>56418549
Guaranteed we're going bull again by the end of the year. Zero actual bearish catalyst, when the Fed doesn't hike at the next meeting I'm sure things will moon for six months

[Anonymous No.56418602]

>>56418490
It should have been obvious the moment he challenged the Jews. They're going to Henry Ford him. Despite his "truce" with the ADL. They don't make truces.

[Anonymous No.56418649]

>>56418600
Normally I would agree, but with the yield curve uninverting we're very close to the recession officially beginning (like 1 month at the earliest).

I went back and looked at past recessions officially being called and in almost all of them we had started dumping into them once they officially began.

[Anonymous No.56418650]

I'm currently at a lesbian jewish wedding and one or both of the brides is nonbinary. I have no fucking idea who is talking about who, just "they" this "they" that. Religion is already completely retarded but imagine adhering to traditional marriage traditions while proclaiming your homosexuality. Lmfao the world is so backwards.

[Anonymous No.56418651]

>>56418600
I hope there's another decent dump before the bull. I have more than 100k I'm slowly pouring in.

[Anonymous No.56418655]

>>56418650
are they hot?

[Anonymous No.56418660]

>>56418649
Tell me how many of the past yield inversions had anything to do with multiple foreign governments dumping US bonds. Genuinely curious, because I'm betting the number is firmly zero, and we've entered a new paradigm where the US is about to buy all of its own debt with sky high USD

[Anonymous No.56418663]

>>56418655
Absolutely not

[Anonymous No.56418669]

>>56418663
bummer
I would give it a pass if everyone who did this wasn't a low self esteem attention seeker

[Anonymous No.56418673]

>>56418650
is the buffet at least decent?
>captcha: JN HRT

[Anonymous No.56418684]

>>56418669
Right?? It's utterly amazing that every single LGBTQIA person in 2023 looks like a caricature. Almost as if their entire personalities are based on what they obsess over on the internet, and there's an entire industry built around selling it to them.

[Anonymous No.56418693]

>>56418660
>this time it's different
Idk maybe you're right. You're probably smarter than me anyway.

>US is about to buy all of its own debt with sky high USD
Can you explain this to me please.

[Anonymous No.56418711]

NRGU is going back to 453! MARA will pump if the market starts to go up instead of down, in sympathy with bitcoin and the market!

[Anonymous No.56418715]

>>56418693
There was a good post about it in the last thread. The US has like 2 trillion set aside to do this. China and Japan are dumping US bonds to prop up their own failing currencies, the US will buy them back at a discount with strong US dollars. Can't default on the debt if you owe it to yourself.

[Anonymous No.56418721]

>>56418693
>this time it's different
it's literally never different. buy at your own risk. Go back and ready stock books from the earliest 20th century. Even in them, they caution about a "new paradigm" since human emotion never changes.

[Anonymous No.56418727]

>>56418721
Hahahahaha are you actually telling someone to go read economic literature that existed before the internet and possibly even the fiat dollar?

[Anonymous No.56418738]

>>56418727
post your longs. I'm sure they're doing great.

[Anonymous No.56418745]

>>56418721
>>56418715
So am I going to get fucked buying sp500 or not. I'm too dumb to invest in other things I got fucked pretty bad with picking my own stocks couple years ago.
Keep buying SPY
If it goes down a lot buy SSO
If it's scary hold cash.
I'm not sophisticated enough to do anything else and busy with work.

[Anonymous No.56418747]

>>56418738
Currently up over 50% ytd because I ignored bears last year. We'll see what happens this time.

[Anonymous No.56418756]

>>56418745
If you think spy is going to keep going up basically forever why not just dca into UPRO and get triple leverage?

[Anonymous No.56418757]

>>56418745
Nah youre not dumb. But it crossed and closed under the 200ma today, which is bearish. It may stop and reverse, but right now that is guessing.

You should always wait until price stops falling and then starts moving up again (higher highs and higher lows) before you enter new positions.

Remember that axiom and it will keep you from throwing good money after bad.

[Anonymous No.56418761]

>>56418747
fair enough

[Anonymous No.56418764]

>>56418353
Buy and hold spy or get shipped to Israel. Your choice.

[Anonymous No.56418774]

I can't stop drinking hot cocoa...
And I won't stop until stocks start going back up

[Anonymous No.56418776]

>>56418756
Because chop decay or whatever it was called when the market keeps crabbing and the leverage ducks it up.
I'm having it happen to my SSO holdings too.
I'll buy some UPRO in tax advantaged accounts if it mega dumps for a flip.

[Anonymous No.56418777]

>>56418757
It's almost 100% going to be back above the 200 dma in premarket on Monday, which would be bullish. There's zero reason for the entire market to continue shitting the bed.

[Anonymous No.56418785]

>>56418776
Chop is a meme. If the underlying keeps going up, the ETF will do the same. Ideal leverage is apparently 2x but that's pussy shit.

[Anonymous No.56418791]

>>56418777
Blessed trips of trvth.

[Anonymous No.56418797]

>>56418376
>>56418538
this is bait. but I come from a republican family. my mom is retarded and anti abortion and my dad is smart and is a CPA so hes more of an economic guy.

biden has had to deal with real world shit that obama barely had to deal with and trump absolutely did not have to deal with. hes done a decent job besides leaving Afghanistan

[Anonymous No.56418804]

>>56418745
Well I'll put it like this; 500 large companies all have to shat at once before you lose your whole investment. These companies are all in different markets. If such a thing happens you've got bigger issues to deal with cause the whole U.S economy/govt system is totally fucked in such a case. Which is why when such events like 1980's crash,2008 mess, or the covid panic happens its your time to buy baby buy as in deploy the mega load of cash sitting in your savings account.

[Anonymous No.56418806]

>>56418785
No it's not. Look at charts of SPY and UPRO. You see the UPRO second peak is lower relative to it's previous peak a couple years ago because it chopped like fucked and lost overall value.
SPY peaks are relatively much closer to each other's ATH

[Anonymous No.56418811]

>>56418777
>There's zero reason for the entire market to continue shitting the bed.
The market can be irrational for longer than you can stay solvent.

[Anonymous No.56418814]

>>56418806
So??? What are the returns over time? That's the part you should be looking at

[Anonymous No.56418818]

Bros I’m down to my final 7k in my entire portfolio. Should I all in on AMZN calls for earnings? Figure this could either take me to 40k or I just lose all of it.

[Anonymous No.56418820]

>>56418811
I will take so much pleasure in saying that to bears when everything moons for six months again

[Anonymous No.56418822]

>>56418350
standard junior miner shenanigans.
market overexcitement and dumpening, followed by market hate, followed by gold going up a lot causing the shares to get revalued all of a sudden

[Anonymous No.56418829]

>>56418818
Never go all in. Learn about the Kelly criterion.

[Anonymous No.56418840]

>>56418818
No. Take a break from trading before you throw that away too.

[Anonymous No.56418846]

>>56418660
how do you figure a sky-high USD is bullish for stocks?

[Anonymous No.56418854]

>>56418814
That depends on the time frame!
If I put in numbers for the backtest portfolio checker to lump sum and then monthly contribute to portfolios of SPY and a portfolio of UPRO then I see SPY ahead as of now when starting in early 2021 or UPRO ahead when starting earlier.
For UPRO to win it needs more bull environment or the recovery from a well timed bottom buy. Sideways fucks it up and SPY does better or loses less.
If we dump hard again I'll UPRO it and bust a nut to your id fucko.

[Anonymous No.56418856]

>>56418745
Just take the boglehead pill anon and move on with life. You keep buying every month regardless of what happens which means you to get slurp when the market is down and you get to benefit when the market is up. If shit crashes then it doesn't matter in the slightest because you are holding long term.

Also buy a total world-market ETF, not just a basic bitch shit and piss 500 one.

[Anonymous No.56418863]

>>56418846
Because it's going to be used to purchase US debt which will bring DXY down from the mountain it's been on

[Anonymous No.56418868]

>>56418863
yeah but say DXY went to some crazy number like 150. What do you think stocks would do?

[Anonymous No.56418870]

>>56418856
SP500 dominates all those ETFs anyway.
With SPY stacks I can become sophisticated with options.
I'll be a covered call Chad and earn income lunch money

[PhD in Bidenomics No.56418873]

WHEN I SAY "GREAT,"
YOU SAY "DEPRESSION!!!
>GREAT!!!

[Anonymous No.56418876]

>>56418868
It depends, why would it go that high? If it's because of direct foreign manipulation then I doubt it would have any material impact

[Anonymous No.56418880]

I like how inflation was supposed to be our vehicle to escape the debt problem but instead we suffocated inflation (real consumer inflation is now below 2%) and our debt is increasing at record rates at historically high interest rates

[Anonymous No.56418885]

>>56418660
It’s almost like they still have to buy oil with the petrodollar and are having difficulty getting their hands on dollars due to the Fed’s restrictive monetary policy. Having the bond market go parabolic because we don’t have a functioning government isn’t good

[Anonymous No.56418889]

>>56418876
You really believe that USD going to insane heights would have absolutely no effect on stocks if it's because of "foreign manipulation"?

[Anonymous No.56418894]

>>56418885
The government is fine. Please tell me you don't believe the mainstream political slop they feed everyone.

>>56418880
Except rates are nowhere near historic highs lmfao

[Anonymous No.56418905]

>>56418889
I think public rhetoric from places like the Fed would have a heavier hand than general public sentiment. But I don't really care to speculate on fringe possibilities like that.

[PhD in Bidenomics No.56418907]

>>56418880
Plot twist:
>we get massive debt AND massive inflation
Enjoy the next part!

[Anonymous No.56418918]

>>56418907
>massive debt AND massive inflation
aw shit, I hate when my expectations are subverted

[Anonymous No.56418919]

i'm rolling into monday with $70k in qqq puts after printing on them this week.
tell me how i'm feeling right now.

[Anonymous No.56418924]

>90% of retailers are short
>big money is hundreds of billions in unrealized losses
>yields dumping
>oil dumping, govt offering to buy at pennies on the dollar to refull spr
>dollar dumping
I’m going all in on spy calls monday

[Anonymous No.56418929]

>>56418924
>govt offering to buy at pennies on the dollar to refull spr
looks like they're gonna have to up that bid. The ask is over $10 higher lol

[PhD in Bidenomics No.56418936]

You are already dead.

[Anonymous No.56418942]

Im gloomy today. I was wanted at a social event so I popped in but I just didn't have any energy for it so I let people down I feel. I even wanted to go out tonight to some popular bar and grab a drink or two and really try.

[Anonymous No.56418944]

>>56418757
what time period, on SPY daily time frame you havent even touched the 200sma yet and on every time frame it looks like shit

[Anonymous No.56418948]

>>56418936
So there is a hell? And this is it?
Oh well... I was expecting my brain to just shut off and that would be the end

[Anonymous No.56418951]

>>56418919
>tell me how i'm feeling right now.
a perfect 50:50 ratio of giddy and terrified

[Anonymous No.56418953]

>>56418919
How does it feel knowing that retarded bets like this are what's causing the red and not actual negative information? You gonna time the bottom perfectly and go long just in time?

>>56418924
Retail being obnoxiously bearish is the best bottom indicator

[PhD in Bidenomics No.56418968]

Look guys, I found this chart of the October 2023 stock market all the way back from 2013. Wait a second, what do all these labels mean?

[Anonymous No.56418970]

>>56418936
Imagine buying at the top, pure ecstacy

[Anonymous No.56418973]

>>56418907
stagflation is incredible. The issue here is that too much of the economic investments are misallocated for social reasons and for historic reasons from QE. The inflation monster got awoken by the covid scamdemic.

[Anonymous No.56418974]

Can't believe that the market makers didn't make a stupid ass V reversal today. Guess that it's coming next week on Tech earnings

[Anonymous No.56418981]

>>56418968
Hey fag, we're actually at "bear trap" since, y'know, we had an entire year of red last year

[Anonymous No.56418982]

>>56418968
have we went past "return to normal" yet or is that coming up next?

[Anonymous No.56418984]

This is weird. I remember when weekends were full of bobos, now they're full of mumus. The script has flipped, and this may be a sign of things to come.

[Anonymous No.56418992]

>>56418984
What??? 9/10 posters here are retarded doomers

[Anonymous No.56418995]

>>56418360
LOL I have been super amused he was so full of himself and the new bull market

[Anonymous No.56418996]

>>56418992
Nope. I'm seeing a massive amount of posts saying "buying calls monday", "tech earnings will save the market", "real inflation is well below 2%", etc. etc. The script has truly flipped.

[Anonymous No.56419005]

>>56418727
If you haven't read John Adams you don't know shit about investing

[PhD in Bidenomics No.56419012]

>>56418970
The top came when Greece got bailed out by the EU. There's nobody to bail out the United States, and there will be no "top".

>>56418981
>>56418982
Lower highs and lower lows. Pic related was the exact moment we hit "return to normal" in late July.

[Anonymous No.56419020]

>>56418996
Markets won't turn back up until they all capitulate. The markets are literally making lower lows and lower highs and if you ask them why we're gonna giga pump now or Monday it's "it just is ok!?"

[Anonymous No.56419021]

>>56418996
My guy that's like one poster in this specific thread

>>56419005
Man none of that old econ shit matters anymore. The USD was still based on precious metals and high frequency algorithmic trading didn't exist. Neither did Cramer-tier mass media jewry.

[Anonymous No.56419022]

>>56419012
So next up is "fear" and "capitulation" soon after...

[Anonymous No.56419027]

>>56418538
true

[Anonymous No.56419034]

>>56418663
leave.

[Anonymous No.56419035]

>>56419020
Hahahahaha DUDE we had an ENTIRE YEAR of hardcore selling based on actual inflation and rate hike data. Now we're having an episode of "Big Money sells puts to retail faggots". Christ bears are just greedy as fuck.

[Anonymous No.56419043]

>>56419035
Yet we're going down, not up.

[Anonymous No.56419044]

>>56418936
i wish EU collapse. I have so many short

[Anonymous No.56419051]

>>56419043
You have zero (0) legitimate reason to sell, at least US companies. The bear narrative is unraveling for the second year in a row.

[Anonymous No.56419057]

>>56418953
Retail's not that bearish because Tesla is being slurped right now

>>56418992
Based on what I've seen this year they do these stupid ass reversals all the time right when one side gets too comfortable, but biased more towards the bulls. I guess those doomer bulls last year were right and the government will never let the market plunge again

[Anonymous No.56419058]

>>56419051
>unravelling
I dunno mang, bears have been posting their portfolios today. They're doing extremely well.

[Anonymous No.56419066]

>>56419012
The top comes when interest plummet to fight off recession

[Anonymous No.56419071]

>>56419035
>the bears were wrong after all, we're RETURNING TO NORMAL ok?!
hmm where have I heard this spiel before?

[Anonymous No.56419075]

It's a new paradigm

[PhD in Bidenomics No.56419076]

My old prediction was that Biden would lose to Trump in a landslide after fucking up the economy so badly, and then get sent to prison along with the rest of the FBI. What I didn't expect was for Biden to fuck things up even beyond my wildest expectations. My new prediction is basically exactly the same as Ray Dalio's current outlook. Biden has done so much damage to the United States on all levels that we are going to get sucked into WW3, lose, have a sovereign debt crisis, and then collapse into civil war. I was originally optimistic that we could get through this with "only" a severe economic depression, but Biden has caused such severe and irreparable harm to our country that I now believe Ray Dalio is correct, and that we're a dead country walking.

[Anonymous No.56419077]

>>56419057
It's not retail buying Tesla

>>56419058
>Today
Yeah lol after they had to dig themselves out of huge holes from the moon mission we took from October 22 thru August

>>56419066
Ohhhh I thought the bear narrative was that we've "akshully been in a recession for a year they just changed the definition!!!!"

[Anonymous No.56419080]

>>56419075
I'll paradigm your ass, bro

[Anonymous No.56419082]

>>56419020
I’m going all in on Monday because we failed to break support for the second week in a row and all the other assets people put money in dumped today after being up for months. Setting a stoploss at the next resistance meaning you are risking $1 to make $6, whereas shorting here is risking $6 to make $1. It’s about the easiest trade all year

[Anonymous No.56419083]

>>56419051
I honestly don't care why they're going down. I'm not married to one side. If anything I hope markets keep going up forever for the sake of the economy. I've been selling and have been long puts since price has been going down since the July highs.

Once price reverses and starts moving up again, I'll switch my biases. I don't care about being right. Just follow the trend.

[Anonymous No.56419085]

>>56419076
What's the quick run down of Dalio's outlook? I'm only vaguely aware.

[Anonymous No.56419086]

I'm a 42 year old lost soul with $350k invested (got a small bag of pypl, hold nvda puts) and commodity related equities (oil/uranium/gold/silver). No friends, no family. Work in tech. I can see the writing on the office, lots of worry and stress about the future, meaning layoffs are just around the corner. Only a matter of time. I bought myself some frozen microwaveable chink food and a case of beer for tonight. Even if I make it with my investments, I don't know what I'm going to do with my life next. For maybe the second time in my life, I'm genuinely afraid.

[Anonymous No.56419092]

>>56418818
All-in is a bad strategy, especially if the first coin flip won't also be the last. Sooner or later, probably sooner, you're going to zero your account and then you're out of the game.

Capital preservation is what makes investing easy. If I have $500,000 I don't need to do anything other than press "SPY market order" a couple times a year to make 10% and live on it. But if I gamble my account down to $5 then no amount of legendary 400% gain porn will even move the needle on my annual finances.

Losing half your account hurts a lot more than 50% gains helps. Don't make your job harder than it needs to be. It's hard enough already.

[Anonymous No.56419096]

>>56419086
>NVDA puts, energy, precious metals
ygmi
>Even if I make it with my investments, I don't know what I'm going to do with my life next. For maybe the second time in my life, I'm genuinely afraid.
you have to find meaning

[Anonymous No.56419098]

>>56419085
seconded

[Anonymous No.56419099]

>>56419086
Including retirement accounts?

[PhD in Bidenomics No.56419100]

>>56419085
Literally civilizational collapse. Think Syrian Civil War.

[Anonymous No.56419103]

>>56419083
But......if everyone does what you're doing......the trend just stays bearish. It's a self fulfilling prophecy man.

[Anonymous No.56419105]

>>56419082
We are below the support right now but yeah I'm smelling a stupid V-shaped recovery next week too

[Anonymous No.56419106]

>>56419100
Syrian Civil War was a spook op

[Anonymous No.56419107]

>>56419103
it's human psychology. You too will want to sell once you see your wealth melting away.

[PhD in Bidenomics No.56419111]

>>56419106
Who's to say this one won't be?

[Anonymous No.56419121]

I've been busy with learning about ac current all week, can someone give me a quick run down on all the doom posting?

[Anonymous No.56419123]

>>56419107
Yeah of course, appeal to normie sentiment instead of just staying the course and investing for the long term. Selling when things take a leg down is utterly retarded eat-the-first-marshmallow tier shit.

[Anonymous No.56419124]

>>56419121
yields

[Anonymous No.56419127]

>>56419096
Yeah, what's scary is I know I'm probably going to have to start over from scratch on everything except my portfolio and bank account. Retrain or pivot into a new career, or become an independent contractor. Move into a new place, maybe even a different city or state. The past 10 years of taking easy is coming to an end. The dream is over.

>>56419099
Including retirement. Started late.

Just cracked a cold one, cheers.

[Anonymous No.56419128]

>>56419121
30 yr yields broke 5% this week, first time in a very long time that's happened.

[Anonymous No.56419131]

>>56419121
The bear narrative is that literally everything is bearish, it doesn't matter if it completely contradicts what they were saying last year. Never mind that Powell basically confirmed no more hikes, never mind that inflation is back down hardcore, etc etc.

[Anonymous No.56419133]

>>56419077
C'mon man you know that's not true. Tesla is one of those stocks where half of retail buys no matter what and any drop in price is an opportunity to buy lower(the other half is bears trying their hardest to be right by shorting it). Just check stocktwits

[Anonymous No.56419136]

>>56419123
it's kind of ironic how price action works yeah. People like to buy when things are expensive (like right now) and sell when things are cheap. It's just greed and fear in the end.

[Anonymous No.56419137]

>>56419121
elon said that his advisors dug him into a grave by holding him at gunpoint and saying they would kill him if he didn't force this cybertruck meme. Now Tesla is dying because a lot of resources were wasted and not Tesla is behind on EV and robotics because of the Cybertruck meme.

[Anonymous No.56419139]

>>56418764
Sorry, we need more warm bodies. Only EIS holders will be draft-exempt.

[Anonymous No.56419140]

>>56419128
I almost want to buy some 30yr with that duration on them so act as a buoy to my portfolio.

[Anonymous No.56419143]

>>56419127
Bruh.
You're gonna make it. Tech market's just goofing off right now. It'll come back. I'm in tech too and study something every day. I'm pretty certain I won't last in my current job.

[Anonymous No.56419142]

>>56419133
Institutions have always been long on Tesla while retail has been overwhelmingly bearish on it, especially since Elon bought Twitter and the mass media kikes went after him. Retail doesn't move the market, any significant move up on TSLA is because Big Money is buying.

[Anonymous No.56419146]

>>56419139
I filed my draft exemption in 9mm

[Anonymous No.56419147]

>>56419105
Support on spy is unironically 420 which we have not broken

[Anonymous No.56419158]

>>56419121
Markets look fucked. What was once a risk-premium that structurally favored stocks and other risky assets with long-term compounding advantage has rapidly shifted to a risk expense that instead favors TIPS and short term t-bills with the highest expected returns.

To put it another way, if you hold most stocks with long implied durations right now, you're like a gambler at a casino. The odds are stacked against you, inevitably the house will win.
You're taking big risks for zero reward, and should be fully expecting to lose on average.

[Anonymous No.56419163]

>>56418863
Anon, two things:
1) That's not what treasury is doing when they talk about buybacks
2) "Buying bonds with newly printed money" is QE. Which is not going to happen as long as Powell's ass is in that Fed chair.

[Anonymous No.56419171]

And it's a little bit of poop and pee
Cold poop on a Friday pee
A poop of pee that poops just pee
And the poopio oooooh oh pee

[Anonymous No.56419179]

I'm beginning to screencap some of these posts for later

[Anonymous No.56419188]

>>56419158
Small caps and market breadth shows where things are headed. We won't get any meaningful bull move until those turn.

[Anonymous No.56419197]

>>56419163
And what will you say when it does happen?

>>56419158
Doomers begone

[Anonymous No.56419213]

>>56419188
Yes, small caps have been lagging hard for the past 4-5 years. This is yet another example of the complete breakdown of the historical risk-premia structure.
Large caps have outperformed as they are the most heavily indexed, most passively held, and with their scale could most easily absorb the liquidity that has been continuously injected into the markets. No longer though, as even large caps are now essentially flat over a 2 year period.

It's like a dam, stopping up the river of liquidity, sucking up all flows. Once that dam bursts, watch out below..

[Anonymous No.56419218]

>>56419188
I'll probably bet on king crab again. That's been working well so far this year, but the year is almost over so I'm feeling a bit of foreboding which I haven't felt as yet.

[Anonymous No.56419227]

>>56419197
What will you say when it doesn't? Janet Yellen is not going to magic up $34 trillion and pull off the greatest bond trade in history. That program is about swapping shit like replacing 1 year and 11 month old bills for extra issuance of 2 year bills.

And the F.E.D. isn't going to weaken the dollar, purchase bonds, or do anything beyond a BTFP-style bare minimum during a sudden crisis as long as CPI is over 3 and ticking higher. We've had 2 years of Powell autism and you still don't get that? How much clearer can he be?

[Anonymous No.56419234]

>>56419218
Further crabbing is the base case. The truth is though, this endless crabbing is indicative of a silent crash. With every year that t-bills pay 5% and stocks trade flat, investors in stocks are silently getting screwed. Not only are they earning zero nominal returns, they're shrinking continuously in terms of real wealth.
A silent collapse. A bear with the face of a crab.

[Anonymous No.56419238]

>>56419213
Bro I cannot fucking tell you how many times I've seen these retarded "once the dam bursts..." posts. It's always wrong but you're just going to shift the goalposts to the next doomer headline. Fuck you people, bunch of miserable pessimists.

>>56419227
Bro the inflation narrative is DEAD. Deader than dead. The only people clinging to it are retail bears and mainstream media rudders. Get real.

[Anonymous No.56419241]

>>56419234
I generally sell OTM puts, so king crab has made me a fortune both crabbing downward and up, but if my ursine friend (who I do like much more than mumu, honestly) finally wins and kills my liege lord than I'll only be a little more freshly dead than mumu. Have to see what monday's premarket holds.

[Anonymous No.56419244]

what's going on with the BANKS this time? no news of banks failing?

[Anonymous No.56419250]

>>56419244
Yeah isn't that interesting? I thought the bear narrative was that we would be seeing massive cascading bank failures by now... Huh that's crazy!

[Anonymous No.56419256]

>>56419238
>Bro the inflation narrative is DEAD. Deader than dead. The only people clinging to it are retail bears and mainstream media rudders. Get real.
You understand the Fed and the market are different things, right? Like, that information has at some point entered your brain, right?

The Fed cares about two things: employment and inflation. Employment remains strong, which means the Fed remains restrictive until inflation is persistently racking up 0.1 and 0.2% monthly figures. Which it isn't.

[Anonymous No.56419259]

>>56419244
>>56419250
besides wells fargo closing 15 more branches this month, nothing

[Anonymous No.56419262]

>>56419250
bank stocks tanked today, on no news?

[Anonymous No.56419266]

>>56419244
Very high yields. Which, as Powell just told us, is a sign of tight Fed policy working and something he's fine with. Your bank stocks are fucked, because the institutions are chugging along on BTFP life support.

[Anonymous No.56419269]

2020 was the crash. And then the banks were allowed to steal 1/5th of the dollar's value with two years of free money. That was the bailout. The federal reserve then increased the interest rate to 5% to make it clear that it was over. It will return to a natural rate of interest (3% or 3.5%) shortly.

The banks have been stabilized by robbing everyone else (including foreign countries) blind. Yet, the U.S. in particular as well as the collective West is for a variety of reasons no longer an attractive area for investment and this fact, when taken with, declining international $ reserves, U.S. bond purchases, means that inflation can no longer be exported as before. The era of QE is at an end and future attempts will have more immediate inflationary consequences that would make them unpalatable, the U.S. will not be able to have 1.5% interest rates for the same reason Brazil or Russia cannot have them. Lowering them would just lead to immediate currency devaluation, there are no international dollar reserves or bond purchases to rely on.

Life for Americans is going to get more tough, permanently. It's not the same country as before. You will not get a 2% mortgage again. The stock market won't skyrocket but will mirror GDP. Your 401(k) won't be guaranteed to increase more than 20% over 10 years. Government bonds will become the best performing asset. This is the future of the S&P 500, pay attention and note it well.

[Anonymous No.56419272]

>>56418797
Can’t believe how politically brain dead biz is.

[Anonymous No.56419277]

>>56419131
how long did it take for price to go up despite it being really bad "fundamentally"

[Anonymous No.56419283]

>>56419272
Oh come on, give him credit. >>56418797 said "this is bait" and then wrote a bait post. That's pretty clever!

[Anonymous No.56419290]

>>56419266
buy when there is blood in the streets

[Anonymous No.56419296]

>>56419290
I think about this phrase a lot but I don't think there's any blood yet, I have seen very little capitulation. Some capitulation, but very little overall.

[Anonymous No.56419297]

>>56418880
>inflation was supposed to be our vehicle to escape the debt problem
uhm, what?

[Anonymous No.56419299]

Posting for posterity. Watch monday glow greener than neon because of the weekend macro.

[Anonymous No.56419301]

>>56419238
>35 PBTID
>SOXL
>TSLA
>I'm currently at a lesbian jewish wedding and one or both of the brides is nonbinary
>5 hours replying to every single bearish comment in the entire thread
LMAO. Actually hilarious. It would truly make my day if you would post a screenshot of that 5 fig RH port.

[Anonymous No.56419305]

>>56419299
I do not have baby bitch hands nor do I have an invalid strategy

[Anonymous No.56419306]

>>56419283
Guess so! But I do see a lot of left leaning stuff, which strikes me as odd for a stock market page…

[Anonymous No.56419334]

>>56419299
>>56419305
what IS your startegy? catch a falling knife with both hands on the blade?

[Anonymous No.56419344]

>>56419290
This is the 2020's: buy when Cramer capitulates on bank stocks. "The fortress of JPM has fallen" is your signal to all-in BNKU.

[Anonymous No.56419347]

>>56419085
>What's the quick run down of Dalio's outlook?

History, political, and social follows long and short economic cycles, which are controlled by interest rates, and Ray is the only nigga in the world who completely understands what is happening...?

[Anonymous No.56419357]

>>56419305
Its worked for most of the last 10 years... so, why not?

[Anonymous No.56419360]

>>56419299
>>56419305
These will probably work, if for no other reason than taking advantage of a dead cat bounce and we did drop a lot this week.

[Anonymous No.56419363]

>>56419297
Anon means what we did post-WW2. In 1945 we had similar debt levels but returned to normalcy by slashing defense spending to cut the deficit and having several years of high single to double digit inflation.

However nowadays we've got structural cold war + SS/Medicare deficits. So inflation "pays down" 4% of the debt but our deficit spending adds 6%.

[Anonymous No.56419370]

>>56419363
>"pays down"
i hate this way of thinking, remind me of the
>$500 item is 50% off, that means you "save" $250!!!

[Anonymous No.56419373]

>>56419085
>>56419098
You can read a bunch of parts he posted on LinkedIn (lol) https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/changing-world-order-ray-dalio-1f/

[Anonymous No.56419376]

>>56419370
Yes, it's a very semitic way of looking at things. But the numbers add up, so it is what it is.

[Anonymous No.56419402]

>>56419376
no no NO. that is such a cop out. its a means to avoid any responsibility or guilt for a lack of action. unless the debt is actually paid, then inflation isn't doing anything. number can and have been manipulated. you can't inflate the problem away

[Anonymous No.56419414]

>>56419269
wouldnt the FED then benefit from not raising but not lowering rates either, shake out anyone who was depending on the lowest rates, allow for the markets to speculate and then start buying assets again?

[Anonymous No.56419417]

>>56419179
Here you go.

[Anonymous No.56419443]

We getting a movie tomorrow night?

[Anonymous No.56419447]

>>56419179
Sometimes we get some good ones

[Anonymous No.56419448]

>>56419402
Hey, lighten up. The nation's death warrant got signed in 1865 or 1919 or 1965, pick your poison. Nothing's getting fixed correctly until we restart.

[Anonymous No.56419480]

>>56419376
>But the numbers add up, so it is what it is.
They don't add up. They never will. Social security, government pensions, medicare, the military. These are all inflation adjusted expenses as you've pointed out.
The debt is irrelevant because it already exists, that has already been spent, and already flows through the money supply. They could print a $30 trillion coin and the "debt" would vanish overnight. They've even considered such ideas.
The interest on debt is relevant of course, as an attempt to temporarily vacuum up and delay some liquidity. The interest rate is the cost, but in the end all that changes is the intertemporal money supply. The dollars never really disappear.

For a while, the numbers appeared to add up because population growth was absorbing some of the impact of these issues. However, that is unfortunately no longer a solution. Years of subtle attempts at population control have overshot and we are now below replacement rate. The only remaining option to shore up our demographics and keep the economic ponzi functioning is immigration, and if you've paid any attention that's been a total shitshow as well.

[Anonymous No.56419482]

>>56419448
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fVQwzv5Qfc

[Anonymous No.56419492]

[Anonymous No.56419493]

>>56419269
You better be wrong.
Either it goes up and I'm quite well off or I say fuck it i'm moving somewhere cheap since america isn't worth paying so much for.

[Anonymous No.56419501]

>>56419448
it got signed in 1776 and you can't change my mind on that. they should've stated clearly and precisely that central banks were not allowed. or more specifically, jews were not allowed

[Anonymous No.56419508]

>>56419480
>Social security, government pensions, medicare, the military. These are all inflation adjusted expenses as you've pointed out.
So too are tax brackets. The point is you *can* use inflation to pay off debt via negative real rates. We're just not in that situation.

>The debt is irrelevant because it already exists, that has already been spent, and already flows through the money supply. They could print a $30 trillion coin and the "debt" would vanish overnight. They've even considered such ideas.
The debt, even if it were all 0%, is absolutely relevant because it's an asset on books around the world. So too is the idea that the US dollar is managed by sane people. Sane people who would not coin 30 trillion new dollars in an instant.

If you go full Krugman, the entire economy switches to Euros, local currencies, gold, fucking Bitcoin, anything other than dollars. And things get real dicey for us real fast.

[Anonymous No.56419554]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fVQwzv5Qfc

[Anonymous No.56419592]

>>56419508
>The point is you *can* use inflation to pay off debt via negative real rates
They can "pay" whatever they want for debt, or nothing at all, but it kills confidence in the currency. Clearly you understand this, but I think you've got some weird faith. The reality is that we've soft-defaulted multiple times throughout history and everyone who studies knows this.

The absolute quantity of the debt isn't particularly relevant because it's in the past. People's faith is built on future expectations, and also a lot of blind stupidity among the lower class. Money supply can be manipulated independent of our national debt anyway. For example, QE has already internalized much of that debt. Before 1970, there was the gold standard and they adjusted the ratio several times. Fractional reserve banking asset requirements also create an effective money multiplier, although in that case the increasing asset is always offset by debt on the other side of the ledger. There are pros and cons to these different methods, but with our current fiat system, QE is the closest approximation to direct printing of dollars, and despite decades of that the plebes still use their dollars every day. Salaries are paid in dollars. Global trade is done in dollars. The world keeps running.
Why? Because if it wasn't us soft-defaulting repeatedly, it'd just be someone else. Wealth is a zero-sum game. Limited quantity currencies like gold never work because all wealth accumulates to the top and debts can never be paid. Children born with nothing can never earn their place. It does not scale to population growth.
As shit as the dollar is, it's still the best game in town.

[Anonymous No.56419598]

Wow right on schedule, /smg/ is comparing the US to Japan again and unironically, genuinely speculating about the US national debt potentially being a real issue. Unreal. Some of the dumbest doomers show up after a little red, it's amazing. Is it just people from /pol/ who try to talk about it there and no one cares? Reddit exiles?

[PhD in Bidenomics No.56419602]

>>56419598
I would call you a retard, but I know you're a shill.

[Anonymous No.56419603]

There's a special playing Hell for jannies

[Anonymous No.56419613]

>>56419603
*Place in

[Anonymous No.56419614]

Oh. Wow. Guys when did the tripfags become the ones calling other people shills? Get some balls back into these threads

[Anonymous No.56419624]

>>56419592
>The absolute quantity of the debt isn't particularly relevant because it's in the past.
Anon, if I zeroed out your checking and brokerage accounts, what would you think? What if I said "nah, brah, it's cool. Assets are just in the past."?

That's what happens if you go full retard and hard default by printing over 30 trillion all in one go. That's why the soft default has to be gradual printing, so that banks and foreigners and other morons holding bonds don't realize they're losing 5% a year until two decades have passed and the government's books are clean.

And no, the dollar would not remain the best game in town if you tried that idiocy. Look up the history of this obscure currency known as the Pound. And what it had to do with something in 1956.

[PhD in Bidenomics No.56419629]

>>56419598
>>56419614
Your filenames are wrong.

[Anonymous No.56419632]

>>56419554
based sea shanty enjoyer

[Anonymous No.56419637]

>>56419629
...What? Wrong in what way?

[Anonymous No.56419638]

>>56419598
Anon, Japan saves money. We do not. That's how they can have a debt-to-GDP ratio of 5 gazillion percent with 2% inflation while we're cracking at just 120% and unable to get inflation under 4% without draining the SPR.

[Anonymous No.56419651]

Securities fraud is really fascinating. I’m going to learn more about forensic accounting I think

[Anonymous No.56419652]

>>56419638
>We do not
Doesn't matter whatsoever if we create the world reserve currency out of thin air and its value is based on "fuck you lol"
>unable to get inflation under 4%
but...that's just not true??

[Anonymous No.56419657]

>>56418414
Pretty much. Investing in your career is way more important and profitable. I treat my portfolio as a retirement plan. Thanks to this I'm not stressed about current, short term movements too, as nobody will remember about -1% day in 20 years.

[Anonymous No.56419665]

>>56419632
They're fucking good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fVQwzv5Qfc

[Anonymous No.56419666]

>>56419250
Shut the fuck up already you bull nutcase

[Anonymous No.56419672]

>>56419652
>Doesn't matter whatsoever if we create the world reserve currency out of thin air and its value is based on "fuck you lol"
Are we going to sail an aircraft carrier up the Thames so the Bank of England buys more bonds? Will we be able to station the hundreds of thousands of troops in the Persian Gulf and Straits of Hormuz to make sure Saudi oil is traded in American dollars and nothing else?

When doing this calculation, remember to avoid being a Boomer and realize what year this is.

>but...that's just not true??
As I said, *without dumping our (now half empty) SPR*. Inflation's clocking in at the mid to high 3's and, oh, wow, look at those oil prices and tensions in the middle east.

Honestly man do you know anything?

[Anonymous No.56419677]

>>56419665
Meant to post this one https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fVQwzv5Qfc

[Anonymous No.56419678]

>>56418873
How would any of you guys profit off of a great depression, assuming it ever happens again?

[Anonymous No.56419681]

>>56419677
God damn Xorg. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fVQwzv5Qfc

[Anonymous No.56419682]

>>56418549
I'm not convinced about this as of late. If you take into account population getting older, competency crysis, Jewish commies influence, plebs having no savings, I'm not sure where will the growth come from in forthcoming years.
It seems like all of the wealth was already siphoned to mega corporations.

[Anonymous No.56419683]

>>56419665
>>56419677
>>56419681
Based Leave Her Johnny poster

[Anonymous No.56419686]

Fuck it I'm buying market puts on Monday.

[Anonymous No.56419689]

>>56419686
OK, but which ones?

[Anonymous No.56419690]

>>56419657
It’s all a market. Just as many idiots stumble into a great trade as idiots stumbling into a lucrative career.

I’m myself partial to financial markets, they are the most pure market capitalism has to offer. Finance sells imaginary products that cost nothing to produce, have infinite volume, and have unlimited upside. No other market on earth can come close to money markets.

[PhD in Bidenomics No.56419693]

>>56419678
The end goal isn't profit anymore, but mere survival. All of you should be stacking food and supplies right now. Ray Dalio is telling people to buy physical hedges.

[Anonymous No.56419694]

>>56419624
Perhaps I'm not being clear in what I'm saying:
>National debt is 33 trillion.
>The federal reserve balance sheet is 9 trillion.
That is debt that's been offered on one hand, and taken back in the other. It might as well not exist, it's some weird ouroboros shit that they call QE. The other debt is all offered as treasuries to the public. So already the true monetized debt load is approximately 24 trillion. The rest of the debt is already imaginary. (Treasury actually lists debt at 26 trillion currently, so perhaps my numbers are off - general idea is the same regardless.)
Now, that 24 trillion has already also been monetized in treasury bills/bonds of various duration. Some more liquid than others. If the fed cashed out all of those treasuries today at par and did some massive buyback, yes, there would be havoc. But they could also just set the interest rate target back to 0% as they did during covid lockdowns, and start sucking up every treasury as it matures. The liquid money supply would increase over time. They have no obligation to keep offering more treasuries, or offer any particular rate of interest. It's all by choice.

>That's why the soft default has to be gradual printing, so that banks and foreigners and other morons holding bonds don't realize they're losing 5% a year until two decades have passed and the government's books are clean.
I think this game is already up. The illusion broke 2 years ago. Yet people continue to use dollars. Fuck, I mean look in Japan people are still accepting the yen. They've been paying 0% and printing like mad and buying up their own debt obligations for decades now. Yet their citizens all have bank accounts flush with yen. The simple truth is that most people are financially retarded. They'll eat shit and love it the whole time. Someone sees a bigger number, they don't necessarily care whether its real. They care that their bigger number is bigger than their friends number, but that's about it.

[Anonymous No.56419695]

>>56419689
SPY ATM.

[Anonymous No.56419702]

>>56419672
The threat from the US is entirely implied, there's no need to literally show up with an aircraft carrier. Also I think you're underestimating the level of international collusion behind the scenes, but either way, no country that's worth anything is going to willingly fuck up its relationship with the US. Either because of the threat of military force or the [more realistic] threat of the US, I dunno, pulling a Joe Biden and actively withholding tons of money unless something specific happens

[Anonymous No.56419705]

>>56419665
sang this one in basic training kek

[Anonymous No.56419706]

>>56419694
Japan is an island nation. The US is an international economic zone. They are not the same.

[Anonymous No.56419711]

>>56419044
that picture lol
>no wind power in our forest
>stop coal burning now [hue hue hue]
>nuclear power? no thanks

[Anonymous No.56419713]

>>56419705
I wonder if my selection buffer will work now. Maybe I just have to be drunk enough...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fVQwzv5Qfc

[Anonymous No.56419715]

>>56418953
>Retail being obnoxiously bearish is the best bottom indicator
Actually NPCs at my work are panicking. I didn't hear anyone talk about stock market on our Slack for 2 years until this week.

[Anonymous No.56419716]

>>56419706
Uh, japans the worlds 4th largest economy anon. Very comparable. Not that I read the other anons giant post of course.

[Anonymous No.56419718]

>>56419713
Well fuck me.
>>56419044
I'm short calls in Poland. Fuck me sideways.

[Anonymous No.56419721]

>>56419702
Aircraft carriers are obsolete.
That’s why nobody’s bothered to build one to compete. A single hypersonic is a far greater investment. Carriers were great for the 80s and 90s in OPs and for the 00s and 10s they’re good for hearts and minds as a propaganda figurehead.

But now, they’re as useful as old Ironsides.

[Anonymous No.56419729]

>>56419694
>Someone sees a bigger number, they don't necessarily care whether its real. They care that their bigger number is bigger than their friends number, but that's about it.
Literally my thinking when I invest.
>I'm probably getting fucked with purchasing power, but what's the alternative
I can either lose less by investing in indexes or not invest and lose even more by not.
Slowing the losses rather than making real gains. Unless I'm in the right place at the right time and pull the trigger on a deep dip with correct timing.

[Anonymous No.56419731]

>>56419721
Occupying territory is all that matters.

[Anonymous No.56419735]

If I have figured out how to use a computer I'm buying spy puts tomorrow...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFsg4ZFG5wY

[Anonymous No.56419736]

>>56419493
>either it goes up

Why would it go up? American companies have no growth prospects. India's stock market (NIFTY 50) has outperformed America's since 2008 by an additional 200% gain with x6 returns against x4 and that was without QE and with much greater future growth prospects. America's stock market is no longer the best performing in the world.

International economic dominance and pre-eminence in all sectors as well as a monopoly on high technology created legitimate growth between 1950 and 2008. We made everything worth making and did every service worth servicing and designed everything worth designing and nobody could touch us.

Growth between 2001 and 2018 was founded upon low interest rates and technological and service competitiveness. Our manufacturing sector was completely gone, but we at least retained our monopoly on high technology and design as well as international services.

We are now starting to see the cracks in the Western world order. Countries looking to develop do not turn to the West for technical advice but China, so intl. financial services and professional services that were once extremely profitable for us are now going to China. Intl. best-selling smartphones and laptops are now designed in China. It can produce desktop & mobile operating systems and will soon move to internationalize them, and India is investing in the same. The U.S. will suffer the same problem that the Europeans suffered when the Japanese learned to make cannons and rifles themselves ; competition and then exclusion from the market. Except it will not just be firearms, but all the goods and services that the U.S. now dominates and upon which its financial supremacy rests. The complete alteration of the U.S. by 2060 will only accelerate these patterns as it becomes a Latin-style socialist cunt more interested in gibs than growth.

Imagine how the people born in the 1950s feel now. Do you want to be here 2 feel even worse in 2070? Create an exit plan.

[Anonymous No.56419738]

>>56419715
You mean they're panicking about the stock market crashing?

[Anonymous No.56419739]

>>56419706
Love it when some random anon interjects out of nowhere with a completely unrelated point, as if it's some absolute refutation to my 2000 word ramblings.
You could easily argue that cultural differences make the Japanese uniquely retarded and the US is therefore more susceptible to the sort of loss in currency trust that leads to hyperinflationary decay, but no. It's because Japan is geographically on an island. lmao.

[Anonymous No.56419741]

reminder, 100k isn't a lot of money

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NABQKu3OX6U

[Anonymous No.56419743]

>>56419493
America hasn't been worth paying for for 20 years man.
If you don't have family here there's no reason to stay.

[Anonymous No.56419748]

>>56419739
The island doesn't matter, the people do.
There's no US people like there is Japanese people. We gave that up in the 60s.

[Anonymous No.56419749]

>>56419736
>>56419743
Fudders deserve the rope

[Anonymous No.56419763]

>>56419735
You got it! I knew you could do it!

[Anonymous No.56419764]

>>56419741
he deleted the stream about IQ after the score came out lower then the one they gave him in jail

[Anonymous No.56419766]

>>56419729
>Literally my thinking when I invest.
Don't worry, I feel the same. Very hard to overcome that monkey brain and remember that larger quantities of these virtual numbers do not always translate to a bigger banana.
And you're also correct that it's the only game in town. What other choice but to dance along to the tune they play?

[Anonymous No.56419769]

>>56419694
The Fed is dumping its balance sheet. That 9 trillion is dropping as an inflation fighting measure. And by the way, that's the "monetized" fraction of the debt, not the 24 trillion.

If they stop dumping the 9 trillion or retardedly set the interest rate to 0%, we would see this past month's yield panic x 5.

>I think this game is already up. The illusion broke 2 years ago. Yet people continue to use dollars.
Can you not understand gradual collapse? Or rivals taking their time to build out competing systems and gain market share of FX? Foreign holdings of treasuries are flat, they have been flat for years. And someone somewhere will always use dollars to some extent, but that's a very low bar. Because some people somewhere still use Venezuelan Bolivars and Argentinian Pesos. And those are not examples you should be comfortable emulating.

[Anonymous No.56419776]

>>56419702
>The threat from the US is entirely implied, there's no need to literally show up with an aircraft carrier.
If an Indian PM has a sweetheart deal for Rupees and the Paki finance minister just wants to fuck with America, yes. You would. It wouldn't get there, because we'd have sold our carrier fleet for scrap at that point but it's a metaphor.

"Lol we're invincible" works in 1945 and 1990. Not so much in 2040. There's a reason there are no Latino superpowers.

[Anonymous No.56419777]

Fuck me $200 for an ATM spy put lot?

[Anonymous No.56419778]

>>56419769
They aren't "dumping" anything off the balance sheet, they're just letting bonds mature without replacing them

[Anonymous No.56419787]

>>56419764
did he really? lmao

[Anonymous No.56419789]

>>56418353
Expectation of post crash recovery gains is greater than yields after inflation. I worry about rehypothecation loss fucking the recovery, and subsequent bailouts fucking yields via inflation. Blindfolded roller-coaster ride and the cart is moving slow.

[Anonymous No.56419790]

>>56419776
No I'm pretty sure "Lol we're invincible" is going to work pretty well for the US for a while. There isn't this Hollywood rivalry going on between countries, most politics is for show while they're all friends in private. Also the US espionage arm is probably the best in the world which sure helps.

[Anonymous No.56419794]

>>56419778
It's just an expression, anon. And my shitposts are already too wordy for me to go with "letting up to 60 billion in treasuries and 30 billion in mortgage-backed securities roll off the balance sheet per month"

[Anonymous No.56419798]

>>56419738
Yeah. They were exchanging bearish twitter charts / posts. It was cute. I was itching to post some too with MottCapital logo just for laughs.

[Anonymous No.56419805]

>>56419798
Interesting. The last time I heard normies talking about "how bad the stock market is doing" was last September/October

[Anonymous No.56419817]

>>56419790
Right, which is why we've had success after success with Gaza, Ukraine, Afghanistan, toppling Assad, getting Libya into our corner, puppeting Iraq...

This is without something that challenges our manpower or industrial base in force. This is just declining imperial rot.

[Anonymous No.56419825]

>>56419787
yeah it was funny, the proctor was going on about how variable it can be without interpretation of the test, meaning the one in jail was just some bs and this was the real one and it got quiet on the stream. but he knows how to raise money and presumably be a really good manager having brought some things to market and doing PE but he is up his own ass. and they deleted that trading challenge he did about that amc retard pumper. https://showdown.tendies.af/
shkreli only made like 1k off of 50grand and the youtuber lost everything, anyone here could out trade him

[Anonymous No.56419836]

>>56419817
...But those were successful for the US. Every single foreign entanglement further cements the US as a defining force in the region. Not to mention the vast quantities of money laundering going on throughout those "conflicts"

[Anonymous No.56419837]

>>56419736
>the Europeans suffered when the Japanese learned to make cannons and rifles themselves ; competition and then exclusion from the market.
That literally never happened. What nonsense is this?

[Anonymous No.56419845]

>>56419836
The Soviets were a "defining force" in the region. Plenty of corrupt backscratching in their halls of power and too. Lots of vassals. How'd that work out for them? Oh, I see.

[Anonymous No.56419853]

>>56418942
Its okay to take a weekend to recharge. Don't force it, but don't get stuck in a rut.

[Anonymous No.56419856]

>>56419845
Please tell me you didn't just compare the USSR to the US unironically

[Anonymous No.56419865]

>>56419736
>Why would it go up?
Cuz green line go up.

>Countries looking to develop do not turn to the West for technical advice but China
And Chinese engineering is garbage. That's why they keep trying to steal American IP.

>Muh diversity
>Muh spics
So what. Tons of empire wealth was able to be built with stupid slave labor. Don't underestimate the ruthlessness of our masters. These diversity hires will not treated as princes forever.

[Anonymous No.56419866]

>>56419853
You need to ignore people.
Best st up not to care.
Ruts will fuck you.

[PhD in Bidenomics No.56419868]

>>56419836
>corruption is our (the government's) greatest strength
Shills saying the quiet part out loud.

[Anonymous No.56419870]

>>56419769
>we would see this past month's yield panic x 5.
Perhaps, perhaps not. If people think the yield is gonna go lower, if they think there's a real yield, they might buy it. If there's some legal mandate to hold treasuries, they might buy it. Good examples of this are insurance companies and pension funds. These suckers were buying bonds at negative implied real yields. Was there any logical reason to lock in a loss? No. But they had no choice. They were forced bidders.
Worst case they implement YCC.

>Can you not understand gradual collapse? Or rivals taking their time to build out competing systems and gain market share of FX?
China's been dumping since like 2015. But no one is ever going to trust China given their culture of lying. So much of their data is already bullshit.
If your concern is BRICS, then I think that's a tricky one. Europe joined into the euro system but it's still a minor player decades later. When we export inflation via a depreciating dollar, naturally its profitable to us. It's natural that other countries also don't want to pay that cost. But even if we do lose that benefit, it wouldn't mean some immediate collapse in the dollar value domestically. Again, look at the yen. It's down 30% this past year vs the dollar. Japan is vanishing off the global stage, yet domestically, a cheesburger is still 500 yen. People's salaries, unchanged. Oil price is killing them a bit, but most take the train there. They deal with the higher energy costs.

So I don't think it's as black and white as you make it out to be. It takes a special setup to trigger an Argentinian collapse. They're true masters of their craft, and after going through a collapse every other decade, confidence in the currency and the governments sustainability decayed so far that it becomes trivial to trigger another collapse. In the end, that's really the key: It's all confidence.
No matter what country, if your currency is fiat then it has no inherent value.

[Anonymous No.56419871]

>>56419736
>Create an exit plan.
Invest in the American economic machine via SPY and keep a valid passport.

[Anonymous No.56419874]

>>56419856
Of course not. That'd be silly.

[Anonymous No.56419881]

3900 by years end. Mike Wilson will be correct.

[Anonymous No.56419885]

>>56419868
I don't like it but at least I don't deny that it's the reality we live in

[PhD in Bidenomics No.56419886]

>>56419881
If we're lucky, 1850 is the bottom, but I'm not so sure anymore.

[Anonymous No.56419891]

>>56419853
I really wanted to. I didn't need a "recharge" I just feel like I am kinda bummer and not exciting in conversation because I have felt like I have this cloud overhanging me for three weeks now raining on my parade.

[Anonymous No.56419897]

>>56419870
Mandated treasury buying absolutely falls in the "worries that Krugman has gone too far" bucket. Formally announced YCC would also torpedo any plan to keep real rates negative. Again, Japan serves as an educational example and shows the inflation that sparks.

>China's been dumping since like 2015.
No, they've held their holdings steady. It's only this past year with them defending the Yuan that they've started selling USTs. And rolling out payment rails, and seeing their share of FX transactions tick up past 2%, then 3%...

>But no one is ever going to trust China given their culture of lying. So much of their data is already bullshit.
They don't need to trust them. The Yuan could be just 5% or 10% of global transactions while the US share plunges to 20% and the remainder shifts into the partner currencies, gold, Euros, whatever.

You're right that a collapsing dollar doesn't hurt internal life that much. It just fucks the prices of any imports. And things that rely on imports. Which, in the US's case is literally all our manufactured goods.

[PhD in Bidenomics No.56419899]

>>56419885
We're screaming into a sovereign debt crisis at a thousand miles an hours exactly because of that kind of dysfunctional corruption. Nobody in power wants to have a functional and effective country anymore: it's all about looting the corpse on behalf of special interests while there's still some money left to be had.

[Anonymous No.56419903]

>>56419899
This is why you've got that PhD, anon. Well said.

[PhD in Bidenomics No.56419907]

>>56419899
>>56419903
*an hour

REEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

[Anonymous No.56419916]

THIS IS THE RHYTHM OF THE NIGHT
THE NIGHT OH YEAH
THE RHYTHM OF THE NIGHT
THIS IS THE RHYTHM OF MY LIFE
MY LIFE OH YEAH

https://youtu.be/68oKfjA1sUM

[Anonymous No.56419920]

>>56419891
If it's been weeks then maybe fix your basics. Sleep regular, eat healthy, drink/smoke less, go for walks or hit the gym. If something excites you then dive in, vidya or learn. For me, chasing something I think I want is a downward spiral so I look for new.

[Anonymous No.56419924]

>>56419897
>Again, Japan serves as an educational example and shows the inflation that sparks.
Japan is literally a counterexample to your hyperinflationary expectation. Their inflation has been no worse than the global average.

>No, they've held their holdings steady.
I don't think this is true, but I'm also too lazy to pull up a chart. Not that you've confirmed your version either. My understanding is that they've seen nominal declines due to rate hikes recently impairing the value of longer term treasuries, but also some past declines as certain issues matured and were not reallocated. The exact quantity of sales only shows up in more recent data but that's due to a change in standard.

>Which, in the US's case is literally all our manufactured goods.
Doesn't have to be that way. But yeah, US salaries are pretty overvalued and globally uncompetitive, outside tech. There'll always be that globalization force pulling us down that must be fought against. The good news is that our tech jobs pay the best which attracts foreign talent and creates this virtuous feedback loop of US carrying the globe in tech - as long as we issue enough visas. And those tech workers can take their income and pay $20 for some craft beer or w/e, inflating the surrounding economy.

[Anonymous No.56419933]

Yields...

[Anonymous No.56419936]

>>56417310

[Anonymous No.56419941]

I managed to increase my runway by cutting back on my spending. Even though I'm now unemployed and my stock investments are fucking tanking... I can now go 2+ years by not eating out and not buying junk food.
Sure, I'll probably die of a heart attack because I'm mostly eating ramen noodles, spaghetti, and frozen chicken... but at least I won't die homeless

[Anonymous No.56419945]

>>56419933
Rebase that Y axis to start at 0. It'll look much different.

[Anonymous No.56419959]

>>56419837
It actually did just not to his crazy extent. Japan exported its small arms to burgeoning SEA countries and then Russia during WW1.
German weaponry however dominated in sheer numbers in East Asia, with the Chinese and Siamese making Mauser variant rifles.

The Europeans only "suffered" because within 1 generation Japan went from a gigantic arms importer entirely reliant on exports from the European powers and the USA, to becoming entirely self sufficent in the military sphere some time after the advent of the Murata rifle

[Anonymous No.56419981]

>>56419924
>Japan is literally a counterexample to your hyperinflationary expectation. Their inflation has been no worse than the global average.
No, once you reach a tipping point, YCC is blood in the water for bond shorts. That's the lesson there.

>I don't think this is true, but I'm also too lazy to pull up a chart. Not that you've confirmed your version either. My understanding is that they've seen nominal declines due to rate hikes recently impairing the value of longer term treasuries, but also some past declines as certain issues matured and were not reallocated. The exact quantity of sales only shows up in more recent data but that's due to a change in standard.
Unlike 2015 the sales are happening, in addition to those markdowns. That's the bad sign there.

>Doesn't have to be that way.
Yes it does. You'd spend decades trying to restore the industrial base only to realize the people you're training are 90 IQ Mexicans. G fucking G at that point.

>The good news is that our tech jobs pay the best which attracts foreign talent and creates this virtuous feedback loop of US carrying the globe in tech - as long as we issue enough visas. And those tech workers can take their income and pay $20 for some craft beer or w/e, inflating the surrounding economy.
A plan that works as long as India doesn't discover indoor plumbing. Or our cities become immigrant-repelling hellholes.

Collapse is not:
* Represented by one thing
* Caused by one thing
* Instant
* Simple

[Anonymous No.56419993]

https://youtu.be/65-x2YVUugE

[Anonymous No.56420027]

>>56419981
>No, once you reach a tipping point, YCC is blood in the water for bond shorts. That's the lesson there.
We're seeing successful bond shorts right now, in the US, without YCC. It's more about the combination of currency valuation/trajectory and real yield that enables these trades. Japan is certainly in a worse state though, with regards to that. Above, you've argued about the US trying to subtlety keep real rates negative. But everyone knows that's what's going on, and smart people (with money) don't buy it, so in my mind it's the same problem..
In the end, someone is left bagholding a real loss of effective wealth in these situations. No one wants to, someone has to. You seem to be debating effectiveness of various implementations with an opinion on what is best, but I believe its all the same shit.
In the end, we're not even really debating over anything useful. Just an excuse to type ten thousand words on a dull friday night.

But it's time for me to sleep. Have a good night.

[Anonymous No.56420030]

>>56419721
What a dumb post

[Anonymous No.56420031]

>>56419945

[Anonymous No.56420038]

>>56417310
Lmaooo

[Anonymous No.56420093]

>>56420027
Goodnight bb xoxo

[Anonymous No.56420275]

It's saturday, go out and have sex anon

[Anonymous No.56420338]

going to an AMP tomorrow for the 1st time. how do I get a happy ending?

[Anonymous No.56420347]

that dalio shit was the most pretentious thing I've read in literal years

[Anonymous No.56420396]

[Anonymous No.56420511]

>>56420275
Who can afford it now? The market has buck broken me, financially speaking.

[Anonymous No.56420512]

>>56420509

>>56420509

>>56420509

THREADED

[Anonymous No.56420600]

>>56419941
>I'll probably die of a heart attack because I'm mostly eating ramen noodles, spaghetti, and frozen chicken... but at least I won't die homeless
Supplement your diet with rice, potatoes, onions, apples, oatmeal, beans, canned tomatoes, canned sardines. All healthy and cheap. Cut the ramen noodles if you can. Look for side hustles like helping elderly neighbors do stuff around the house, etc.

[Anonymous No.56420910]

>>56419981
difference between 1990 japan and USA, is that there is no new USA to take our spot, china has proven to be a dud and Eurozone has mega problems too