/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.56160286]

This is what Fed officials currently predict for the interest rate in the next few years. This is why the market dumped. They're predicting a much more gradual decline in interest rates than the market was hoping for.

[Anonymous No.56160312]

>>56160286
Thanks for posting this. Much cleaner than the dirty Bloomberg TV screenshot I captured earlier this morning.

[Anonymous No.56160343]

>>56160312
I was actually looking for media images but couldn't find the most recent dot plot, so I ended up getting it straight from the Fed's PDF report.

[Anonymous No.56160361]

Looks bullish to me. No more hikes, start to reverse next year.

[Anonymous No.56160393]

>>56160286
>that one guy who expects the rate to rise to 6.25% next year
Based.

[Anonymous No.56160474]

>>56160393
hmmm....

[Anonymous No.56160491]

>>56160361
>no more hikes
unless external factors cause inflation to stop going down or even go up. for example, high energy prices and related ripple effects due to OPEC+ supply cuts

if you haven't watched the FOMC press conference, you should- JPow's answers to the questions about external factors, the unreliability of projections and especially the question of whether a soft landing is assured are very educational

if you want to be pessimistic, you could say that the Fed has its back to the wall and is trying to keep the plane flying as long as possible, probably by cooking the books (eg fudging unemployment and customer deposit numbers, ignoring consumer debt and burgeoning defaults/corporate bankruptcies, conflating core and transitory inflation, changing the definition of a recession etc). but even taking the most generous POV (like Janet Yellen's statements about the economy remaining strong, etc) has to admit that the Fed has been backed into a corner and is now reacting to external events instead of controlling them

china's debt (esp from insolvent property developers and the local governments who own their commercial paper) and increasing oil/LNG/diesel prices bolstered by scarcity going into winter are completely outside the Fed's control

by keeping rates high, they know that several small/regional banks will probably collapse- this isn't seen as a bad thing, because in their eyes consolidation in the banking sector (ie JPM/Goldman/BofA taking more market share) is desirable. but they are playing a very dangerous game and with every day that goes by, the risk of systemic instability increases.

traditionally the way this type of situation is dealt with is by starting a war. but the US would lose any war it starts right now. it makes me think they're about to release another bioweapon to start a pandemic- and this one might actually have a fatality rate greater than .01% in people under 60. they've lost the game, they're going to try to flip the table.

[Anonymous No.56160493]

>>56160286
The market dumped because the Fed restated that exact same thing they have been saying for the past year.
Bullshit. The dot plots have said the same thing for a year now. The market just finally ran out of free money and was forced to capitulate. Also many other factors are coming into play. Consumers out of money, credit cards maxed, oil rising, tech sector is a bubble, CRE is a bubble, housing is a bubble, massive labor strikes in the first world, ukraine is officially losing, american politicians financially shitting things up threatening to shut down the government, europe is tipping into recession, BRICS is rising, dollar is about to collapse or hyperinflate. The list goes on and on. The Fed statement yesterday was just a blip on the radar compared to the massive economic storm clouds gathering on the horizon. Insisting markets are collapsing just because of the Fed statement is a controlled narrative to distract from larger economic forces at play.

[Anonymous No.56160499]

>>56160474
what's with all the weird credit unions popping up? my city (midwestern 50-60k population) has had 3 come in the last 3 years or so and another one is being built.
it strikes me that some powerful forces have foreseen the coming cataclysm and realized that credit unions will probably emerge stronger.

[Anonymous No.56160505]

>>56160493
This was meant to be green text of the OP
>The market dumped because the Fed restated that exact same thing they have been saying for the past year.

[Anonymous No.56160643]

>>56160493
This is the June dot plot. Both 2024 and 2025 are getting a consensus of higher rates than expected. Futures were predicting two cuts by Q2 2024

[Anonymous No.56160933]

>>56160491
>unless external factors cause inflation
Sounds like QE is on the menu

[Anonymous No.56160954]

>>56160493
>dollar is about to collapse or hyperinflate
Unironically bullish

[Anonymous No.56160964]

It's pretty much over for bullfags. I highly doubt we'll ever see another bullrun soon. 2021 was indeed the last one. Thanks for the liquidity.

[Anonymous No.56160983]

>>56160286
The fed has failed to react properly to get inflation under control and couldn't predict any of it despite being joined at the hip to the Treasury department. They will fuck this shit up and you shouldn't trust their predictions.