/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.55324151]

Let's have a honest conversation, will, or will there not be another crypto bull run in a couple years? Doomers say crypto is too big and developed now and the 2021 run was only so big thanks to COVID and stimmies, but what do you guys think?

[Anonymous No.55324522]

>>55324151
Stimulus and being at home helped but people sold bc the media told them it was a scam. Once a new wave of normies come it will come back.

[Anonymous No.55324553]

>>55324151

I think it'll go into a bullrun after stocks crash. I think the overall stock market will crash in late 2023 or early 2024.

The problem is all the regulations, scams and arrests going on around crypto right now. I was never a huge crypto guy, but if I ever do get back in, I'd probably just stick to Bitcoin. I made some profits on Bitcoin in the past, but I lost a good amount on Filecoin, even though i thought Filecoin was a good project. Just like with stocks, it's mostly about psychology. People don't really care about the fundamentals anymore (Balance Sheets, P/L statements, Cash Flow, P/E, P/B, dividends, etc.), all they care about is volume, price action and a good story.

[Anonymous No.55324558]

Yes

[Anonymous No.55324559]

imagine not being bullish on the worldwide digital casino. imagine not being bullish on people becoming even more desperate, greedy and degenerate

human nature doesn't change, the cycle of fear and greed will never go away. and if anyone genuinely thinks the new beyond fucked generation will start "saving up" like their parents did they are a moron. absolutely no one believes anymore that you can "make it" through regular working and saving anymore, everyone is aware that absolutely everything is a scam even money itself so might as well throw everything at FartCoin 9000 and see what happens. why do you think PEPE went from 0 to a billion market cap in just a week even in this dead market?
everyone is desperately searching for any kind of lottery ticket to escape the rat race, boomer fairy tale land is over

[Anonymous No.55324605]

>>55324151
>Let's have a honest conversation, will, or will there not be another crypto bull run in a couple years?
There will be another bull run in 2024-2025. It's literally free money. You open a long position, and get rewarded. Only a fool wouldn't long in a bullrun. It's like not buying a game during steam sale or not buying computer hardware during black friday.

[Anonymous No.55325483]

>>55324151

Notice how any attempt at a normal conversation on /biz/ gets buried. This entire sight is full of retards and shills now. Goodluck having a decent conversation.

[Anonymous No.55325492]

>>55324151
What do you think will happen when the fed cant raise rates anymore? Do you think the fed can raise rates all the way to 2026 which is the next crash? I think not

[Anonymous No.55325496]

>>55324151
Yes starting in 2024 the Fed will cut rates and restart QE due to deflation. Surprising everyone, BTC will actually blastoff during deflation because its price is driven mostly by easy money from the Fed.

[Anonymous No.55325499]

>>55324151
The doomer mindset is the result of malnutrition as an infant and other neglect during upbringing. Doomers would prefer you be just as miserable as them.

[Anonymous No.55325509]

>>55324553
Stocks and crypto both bottomed last year. There will be no crash as the soft landing was successful. Next month inflation will be down to 3.5% and Powell can start cutting rates

[Anonymous No.55325522]

>>55325509
Its a bit more complicated than that. Some alts are making new lows (LINK kek) and profitless tech has been more or less similar. The soft landing is mostly due to bluechip tech being used as a defensive trade and AI optimism. Thank NVDA for saving the US stock market really.

[Anonymous No.55325584]

>>55325522
T-bills are paying 5% but once that goes back down to 3% everyone will start aping back into stocks and crypto. And yes I do believe real estate will continue a slow bleed back down to 2019 prices. Commercial real estate especially is fucked plus everybody started waking up and realizing that being a landlord generally sucks ass. All the would be real estate investors ape into stocks and crypto and there ya go. The perfect recipe for our 2024-2025 golden bull run

[Anonymous No.55325607]

>>55325584
No one cares about tbills. It's all about AI, you'd expect AI stocks to return a lot more than tbills which is why only AI related stocks are pumping until like... a few days ago.

[Anonymous No.55325610]

>>55325509

What makes you say that?

[Anonymous No.55325617]

>>55324151
sorry champ all out of bull runs time to lift some boxes for the boomers

[Anonymous No.55325627]

>>55325610
Not him but inflation is almost at 2% according to truflation. Fed is eager to get rates back to zero so the market can keep pumping especially in an election year. They don't want to risk a crisis after Jensen Huang basically gave them a soft landing in stocks. When 2% inflation becomes deflation a month or two later we'll see emergency rate cuts and resumption of "accommodative" policy

[Anonymous No.55325757]

>>55325627

These are all just presumptions though. I've yet to see a single bull address multiple elephants in the room:

- The inverted yield curve

- Oil prices tanking despite massive cuts in production

- Record unemployment (it only has one direction to go from here)

- The massive inflation still going on in Europe

- The fact that every point in history when the FED has cut rates the stock market crashes immediately afterwards

- The fact that the only reason the S&P 500 has gone up is because of a few tech stocks. Like 20 companies are holding up the other 480, which are all crabbing or bleeding

Everybody is putting the cart before the horse. When the FED cuts the market will be crashing.

[Anonymous No.55325767]

>>55325627

Also, the market gas been wrong for over a year straight. They've been predicting rate pauses, or cuts every month for the last 12 months and literally every month the FED needs to come out and remind them that they aren't cutting yet. The fact that the stock market rallies on every hike should be a warning to you.

[Anonymous No.55325779]

>>55324151
>another crypto bull run
Research the Bitcoin 4 year halfing cycle. I expect to be wealthy in the spring of 2025.

[Anonymous No.55325927]

>>55325757
>yield curve
Bond market is wrong. They're predicting a crash forcing rapid rate cuts. The market will not crash, AI ensures that.
>oil prices down
Doesn't imply a recession or harm the soft landing thesis. At the index level a soft landing is due to AI optimism more than economic fundamentals.
>unemployment
Unemployment is at record lows...
>inflation in Europe
Doesn't matter for NVDA, AAPL etc. which are what matter for the indices.
>The fact that every point in history when the FED has cut rates the stock market crashes immediately afterwards
They cut because the economy was deteriorating rapidly, rate cuts don't cause the economy to contract. In this case they'll be preemptively cutting to avoid a crisis because inflation has already been defeated with a soft landing in stocks due to AI. The "real economy" might take a hit but that's irrelevant for tech stocks.
>The fact that the only reason the S&P 500 has gone up is because of a few tech stocks. Like 20 companies are holding up the other 480, which are all crabbing or bleeding
Yeah because of AI. it's a new paradigm and the most important invention since fire. Don't get left behind.

[Anonymous No.55325932]

>>55325779
How’s my stack, I expect to hit these numbers closer to The end of the year.

2.5 BTC/12 ETH/3500 LINK

[Anonymous No.55325946]

>>55325932
BTC/ETH good, LINK meh. Probably going to want to sell BTC and ETH for hypecoins/scams by late '24.

[Anonymous No.55325958]

>>55324151
Let me tell you, a lot of the people I knew irl who were into NFTs and crypto last bullrun were zoomers still in college, or working menial wagie jobs. Now imagine in 1-2 more years that same demographic will be older, with real jobs and real paychecks. Now it may not be crypto or meme stocks specifically again, but something WILL get pumped by these degenerate gamblers. They have seen the truth that passive compounding 401k gains will never make them rich like crypto can

[Anonymous No.55325970]

>>55325946
Thanks for the input bro. I understand the link sentiment. It I believe it can hit close to ATH at the very least. I have other small bags like ADA,XRP,DOT and XMR; surprisingly still have my UNI airdrop. So we’ll see.

[Anonymous No.55325978]

>>55324553
Absolutely, man! This entire debacle is exactly why I'm vehemently opposed to centralized platforms and those damn regulations.
I'm going all-in on decentralization because it has the power to tackle a whole bunch of issues. Projects like Sylo and the Futureverse are leading the way, ensuring that the metaverse doesn't turn into some walled garden. Trust me, decentralized platforms are gonna gain more and more adoption over time.

[Anonymous No.55326011]

>>55325970
Think most of those are dead, you usually don't want to hold tokens after a market cycle is over.

[Anonymous No.55326173]

>>55325927

So, you argument is literally:

- The bond market is wrong (even though it's right 90% of the time)

- Oil prices tanking despite massive oil production cuts means nothing because of AI.

- Unemployment is at record lows... (Yes, reread my point)

- Inflation in Europe means nothing because of AI.

- Cuts won't matter because of AI.

- AI solves everything.

Okay...

[Anonymous No.55327274]

>>55326173
>The bond market is wrong (even though it's right 90% of the time)
Yes. They priced in a hard landing and panicked rate cuts, this is not gonna happen because of AI optimism.

>Oil prices tanking despite massive oil production cuts means nothing because of AI.
It means NASDAQ up and thus crypto up. Bluechip tech is now simultaneously a risk off and hyper-growth play because of AI. Really it's risk-free.
>Unemployment is at record lows... (Yes, reread my point)
Boomer retirements will prevent unemployment from getting too bad and Boomer pensions are going to be propped up by AI optimism too.

>Cuts won't matter because of AI.
Cuts aren't bearish in and of themselves, they're bearish because the Fed is panicking to cut rates due to something else bad happening. In a soft landing the Fed cuts BEFORE something bad happens, while the stock market remains intact (because of AI in this case).

>AI solves everything.
For stock prices yes. As long as stocks are going up, the Fed preemptively eases to avoid a crisis and we have a soft landing, this means mega bull run 2024-25. I'm expecting SPX 6k, NASDAQ 20k, BTC 150k or so.

[Anonymous No.55327289]

>>55324559
>PEPE went from 0 to a billion market cap in just a week even in this dead market?
money launderers?

[Anonymous No.55327316]

>>55325584
You sound like you know how this works. My question is this:
I have 400k saved in bank accounts, that I have made on Youtube for the past 6 years, but they just ruined my life by demonetizing my account. Im 33 years old with no job experience NEET. My question is: Should I put all of this money on the MSCI World (Vanguard Global Stocks EUR Acc for me) right now, or DCA in like 10k a month?

I've considered going all in on BTC to gamble a muh ETH pump and hopefully do a 3x, that would give me peace of mind since I know with that money, I would be able to put it on the MSCI World and be able to liquidate like 3.5% yearly without lowering the principal and live off that, this is my ultimate goal, a decent wage passively. However my question is, what the fuck do I do until I get there? With 400k it's not enough, but im still going to need to liquidate a bit yearly to pay for some stuff now that I have 0 earnings. Im fucking stressed to bits.
I have no fucking idea what the role of fixed income is unless you are old and you want to convert your volatile index funds into something more stable, also the timming for this would need to be right anyway since if when you are old and want to retire interest rates are low as fuck what then?

Isn't it just better to be 100% MSCI World and liquidate 3.5% yearly and live off that? what do I need fixed income for?

On Boglehead forums the most simple index fund i've seen is this:

70% Vanguard Global Stocks
30% Vanguard Global Bonds

But like I said, why would I want to lose on gains by having 30% bonds for? I would only gain psychological relief from less volatility but on the long term im lossing gains so what's the point?

[Anonymous No.55327415]

>>55327316
That’s good money that you saved anon. Hooefully jewtube reinstates you. That being said, I will not give you financial advice. Do your own research and then find a financial advisor, preferably one that already got rich from crypto and only does his job as a side hustle or because he likes helping people.

[Anonymous No.55327446]

>>55327316
If it's "not going to happen" then why not invest in triple leveraged etfs? It's a dangerous thought process to go through and driven by only greed. You are on a board where 99% will be down 70% or more over the last 2 years from crypto (again, greed).

[Anonymous No.55327484]

I want an entire harem of latinx and Asian trannies.

[Anonymous No.55327763]

>>55325970
UNI airdrop goes way back anon. I sold my profits back then and now I'm bagging KREST in anticipation of Peaq rewards when it goes live.

[sage No.55327985]

>>55325757
>>55325927
>>55326173
>>55327274
I'm just interjecting into this conversation, but yLwGPu5C has some very valid points, I really don't see how "AI", being some kind of "paradigm shift" actually effects these indicators of recession, and specifically in regards to the quite valid point about record low unemployment having only one direction to go, if AI is truly as potent as claimed and begins to remove jobs en masse then that would only reinforce that point, with the as yet unseen paradigm shift of AI delivering massive unemployment, creating a humongous strain on the system as all the suddenly unemployed workers have to sell their holdings to pay for their expenses.

[Anonymous No.55328634]

>>55327985
It doesn't matter if there is a "main street' recession, it won't affect AI stocks. Firms have no reason to sell tech giants because of a recession because AI is a sure thing that will make all those stocks skyrocket in value. Soft landing, hard landing, no landing, doesn't matter, it's all about AI now. It's a gold swan and a new paradigm.

[Anonymous No.55328655]

Every Bitcoin dip, I buy $100. I have no plans to actually sell any of it but I do have an alert set for 30000.
One day, maybe. Maybe never. I don't consider the money lost because I always buy in low and use it occasionally.
I think over time, I've probably saved a few hundred just based on when I've converted and when I've bought stuff so, I kinda consider Bitcoin not so much an investment more of an anti-inflationary tool?
Like my last PC purchase was 80% Bitcoin. I waited for a pump and dumped what I needed for the build. I like to think I paid less overall. What exactly, I don't know. $300?

[Anonymous No.55328697]

>>55324558
/thread

[Anonymous No.55328743]

>>55324151
if crypto even exists after the next few years then the next bullrun will be early 2025 and even then its dependent on regime change

[Anonymous No.55328778]

>>55324151
In the stock market? Yes.
In crypto? No. Possibly Bitcoin.

[Anonymous No.55328809]

>>55328778
>another few years
Stocks (SPX, NASDAQ) will hit ATH in July.

[Anonymous No.55328825]

>>55324151
You ever notice how it keeps going down and then keeps going up and then keeps going down and then keeps going up
it's a never ending cycle

[Anonymous No.55328840]

>>55324151
>Doubt
>On /biz/
We're so fucking back

[Anonymous No.55330469]

im not 100% sure, im no economist so i dont fully understand how story works when it comes to finance. i know time isn't cyclical all the time and it only applies to certain markets, and i dont know i crypto is one of them. i just buy marlin protocol to prepare for the nicer future where crypto can remain up and therefore i can continue trading fun assets enjoying memes and talking to cool weirdos online, like you faggots. if the bad future happens and i dont get to do that anymore, well, i didnt lose much money to begin wtih.