END IS HERE ANONS

[Anonymous No.54689222]

>There is now an record crazy spread of 164 basis points between the one-month yield and the two-month yield – a sign that some people are panicking and piling into whatever they can for near term safety

>Debt ceiling drama?

FOR RETARDS:

Treasury yields are a good indicator of investor sentiment about the economy.
Lets first take a look at the types of Treasuries.

Treasury bills (T-bills) = Short-term securities these range from a few days to 52 weeks.
Treasury notes (T-notes) = Are issued with maturities from 2, 3, 5, 7 to 10 years.

Treasury bonds (T-Bonds) = Are the longest term Gov securities these are issued for 20 and 30 years.
Treasury securities are regarded as risk free
They are considered a very safe investment considering the US has never defaulted on its debt.

>So how do these indicate sentiment?

If yields rise (less people are buying treasuries) this means peoples risk appetite is higher aka they are buying riskier assets.
If yields drop (more people are buying treasuries) this indicates people have less appetite for risk aka investors are spooked.

[Anonymous No.54689248]

>>54689222
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2Axcujfo3o

[Anonymous No.54689306]

>>54689222
Nice digits. Yeah shit is falling apart at the seams but the market is so clownish that I don't even know where the fuck we're going.

[Anonymous No.54689409]

>>54689222
this is actually mildly interesting

one side of the market is going 'pls Uncle Sam take out money for safekeeping' and the other is going ' I demand a YIELD for you to have my money'

[Anonymous No.54689427]

>>54689409
are you a complete moron? what a water-temp iq interpretation LOL

[Anonymous No.54689445]

Banks are legally required to hold bonds. My guess is that 1 month bonds are the least bad option if the government is going to be insolvent soonish but not right now.

[Anonymous No.54689451]

Zoom out

[Anonymous No.54689509]

>>54689445
US has almost no debt not denominated in USD, they basically can't become insolvent unless they choose to.
Hyperinflationary supernova is basically the only way it can end, and the only question is when. People say "soon", but many other major global currencies (EUR, JPY) are in an even shittier spot than USD so it is entirely possible that the life of USD will be significantly prolonged by flight from imploding Euro and Yen.

[Anonymous No.54689546]

>>54689222
*The end is nigh.

Checked.

[Anonymous No.54689575]

>>54689427
ok mr smartypants what is your interpretation of this historic anomaly

[Anonymous No.54689694]

It's MMF's.

[Anonymous No.54689801]

>>54689509
How is EUR is a worse situation

[Anonymous No.54689854]

>>54689222
Nothing. Ever. Happens.

[Anonymous No.54689859]

>>54689222
That's just superstition

[Anonymous No.54689870]

>>54689409
This isn't right. Everyone is scrambling for treasuries and the curve is inverted more than literally ever. People are rushing so much for short term t bills that they are taking 160 bps spread losses for the benefit of collateral. Multiple auctions went consecutively 0.000% low bid (no yield). It isn't some people, it is people scrambling for short duration dollar denominated government debt as a safe haven, worse than 2008. Look at the 3 month - 3 month 18 months forward

[Anonymous No.54689875]

>>54689575
It isn't an interpretation. You just objectively didn't understand.

[Anonymous No.54689885]

>>54689801
Because they need dollars and can't get them. You already saw it with the GILT market in the UK. The dollar milkshake drinks from outside in. EMs and EU/UK/China etc. are FUCKED

[Anonymous No.54689899]

If this was abou panicking the 2-month yield would actually go down more than the 1-month yield. That's the whole point of inversion.

[Anonymous No.54689927]

>>54689222
scam graphs about scam economy build on scam fiat system... why would this matter for bitcoin exactly?

[Anonymous No.54689933]

>>54689885
euro went up massively against the dollar the past few months. historically an euro has been worth more than a dollar for decades.

[Anonymous No.54690020]

>>54689222
> nice bait OP

Yupp, debt ceiling. The only question is whether the reps/dems bail first. I just hope that mutts default...
The comments show just how illiterate the average /biz/ poster is.

>pic related

[Anonymous No.54690025]

>>54689222
Omg its a huge dysgenic curve we better buckle up the gene pools are getting small.

[Anonymous No.54690046]

>>54689933
Who gives a fuck about the last few months? The dollar was deliberately devalued due to post-WW 2 usage, the US is pulling out and the world is dedollarizing and the past decade has been a can kick scramble for collateral. Learn what a eurodollar is..

[Anonymous No.54690051]

>>54689933
Watch Brent Johnson/or read Jeff Snider ASAP

[Anonymous No.54690068]

>>54690020
kinda looks like the mcdonald's logo

[Anonymous No.54690081]

>>54690020
Lol I guess that't why China has had to drop its RRR multiple times while 70% of offfshore housing bond issuers have already defaulted on bond series or gone bankrupt and their reserves have plummeted sourcing dollars. Lol Stop reading superficially suggestive interesting graphs and learn how the global economy works. A reserve currency requires UBER-liquid treasury/repo markets and payment infrastructure. We are NOT pivoting to the Yuan and literally CCP/WEF lost. We are probably pivoting to a private payments structure, but it for damn sure will not be the Yuan. China doesn't even have the demographics to exist in 40 years let alone support a bad flu outbreak let alone support retirees without international cooperation. Dedollarization narrative just assists the transition and eases the pressure on the dollar funding markets literally scrambling for dollars and treasuries and only selling treasuries in desperation for dollars, with foreign private institutional investors buying them massively. The crash has barely even begun

[Anonymous No.54690100]

>>54689222
this is the wrong interpretation
the 1 month is fine as current account balances indicate that the usa will still be able to pay without a deal then
the rise in yields is related with the new data from the tax receipts that show that the treasury could be out of money in 2 months and technically put those specific bonds in default

market seems to panic but is there really anyone that thinks they will not cuck out in the last minute and do a deal
for if they dont that means party politics rules the usa and not the monied classes, nothing in recent history shows that the deepstate no longer is in control about things that really matter

[Anonymous No.54690104]

>>54690046
>the US is pulling out
Lol cope. The petrodollar is getting dumped, I like how you try to make it sound as if its a mutual decision.

This is like a bum walking into a Ferrari dealership and saying "I'm choosing not to buy any of your cars!"

[Anonymous No.54690113]

>>54689885
Why do they need dollar for, its losing its world currency status, more and more countries use other currencies for trade, though the EU will probably last to ditch the dollar of their masters but france already goes in that direction

[Anonymous No.54690124]

>>54690113

[Anonymous No.54690134]

>>54690104
The petrodollar is literally a nothingburger taking credit for the eurodollar which predated it by decades and which subsumed it like a blip in the total payments aggregate. Stop repeating soundbytes and learn about how the global economy works. Stop parroting "don't fight the fed" etc. The bond market always fights the fed and is always right. Learn more, make better posts:
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2022/04/01/there_are_no_petrodollars_plus_the_focus_misses_the_point_824889.amp.html

[Anonymous No.54690136]

>>54690104
The eurodollar vs petrodollar is like a single rich person walking into a car dealership and saying "I'm not personally paying you for that specific car" and people interpreting it as the closing of the dealership. Lol

[Anonymous No.54690139]

>>54689222
>Investor sentiment
Go eat a bag of dicks, retard

[Anonymous No.54690143]

>>54690113
No other sovereign currency has the payments infrastructure or globally agreed confidence in the bond market for global reserve asset status. Likely pivot to private currency, tapering along way there, will 100% not be the Yuan or Ruble or Rupee or Euro etc. ultimately. If you don't understand this you don't understand what a reserve currency is and probably don't even know what a reserve asset vs. reserve currency means.

[Anonymous No.54690166]

>>54689222
So what is making 1 month so much more attractive than 2 month? Banks think there will be a default in 2 months?

[Anonymous No.54690182]

>>54690134
>words words words words
Reserve currency is always precedent and the USD is one which is determinedly being abandoned in favour of other pairs. People aren't "desperate for dollars", the market is actually getting saturated with them, as proven by the charts.

The DXY is down 15% and shows no signs of reversal. That's all that matters. You can combine words together to frame your girlfriend leaving you to fuck Chad in a manner which makes you feel good, I guess.

[Anonymous No.54690184]

>>54690113
https://youtu.be/UoHdSPzBMU0

https://youtu.be/Ves8xlKEDCo

[Anonymous No.54690193]

>>54690182
>15
10* still a huge supply surge though lol

[Anonymous No.54690194]

>>54690182
This isn't the first time and it is amid a time when they are all DESPERATE for dollars. 2008 was a scramble for dollars and dollar denominated collateral which hit everywhere else WAY worse than here. You are already seeing it in the treasury auctions and the German bund curve and the foreign reserve dumping/printing to prop up their currencies (US despite your failed understanding of money supply have not inflated money supply, inflation was due to a 40s style supply shock and stimmy checks (banks reserves are not dollars)). If everyone is dumping the dollar, why is everyone scrambling for them at a literally record pace? You don't understand economics

[Anonymous No.54690200]

>>54690182
You literally not having the required basic terminology down to have the conversation but having watched a couple youtube videos and feeling really entitled to rightness and feeling validated for literally regurgitating soundbyte positions you don't even understand in no way qualifies you to have this conversation. Lol

[Anonymous No.54690217]

>>54690194
The dollar will crash, but pending a Minsky moment, it will do so after literally every other sovereign currency. You can already see it in the emerging markets (and could foro months) and then with JPY emergency interventions, China's panic printing/RRR cuts/lockdowns/etc. UK GILT market panic, etc. It isn't even complicated or equivocal, it is just how the structure of the eurodollar system is set up. To have everything explode downline in controlled, leverage-able demolition, as the new system is brought in. Thankfully the bad guys lost and the new system is going to be good

[Anonymous No.54690263]

>>54690194
>rhetoritician accuses others of buzzwords
Nobody is scrambling for dollars. The supply far exceeds demand, and this is, once again, made visible from the DXY chart. My arguments are based in numerical value and yours are based in ideas and hypotheticals. You suggesting that money supply isn't an issue despite 13 years of QE is an additional laugh to add to the delusion. 70% of all dollars printed in a couple years and this coper is gonna sit here and say the money supply hasn't inflated. Multipolarity is already a certainty and nations have already begun to transition out of USD for various other pairs. Again, this isn't from me, these are real world events transpiring in live time.

Nations are selling too much US dollars. There's fucking dollars everywhere. They're spilled all over the floor and I can't walk to the bathroom to take a piss without slipping on US dollars

[Anonymous No.54690312]

>>54690263
Projection isn't argument. I've given fact base reasoning, you've sophistically and pissily seethed about fucking TA and appealed back to the post-WW II globalization basis for argument and demonstrated flatly and convictedly that you STILL don't understand the difference between QE and money printing. If the world is not scrambling for dollars, why are people taking 160 bp cuts on sourcing T bills rather than participating in RRP? Why are bond fluctuations greater than they were in 2008 during the global collateral shortage? Why did the Fed have to open their swaplines to daily? Why are they being used at all (require a premium)? Why is their primary credit window being used? Why the volatility in GC/triparty repo? You literally have no answer for this and have literally no idea what any of these terms even are or what a swap line is, even following CS blowup and Swiss ramping usage of them (Switzerland as international money center). Even hedgefunds see it. Lol

[Anonymous No.54690332]

>>54690263
You're missing the point. How many dollars are there vs. how much dollar denominated debt and rehypothecation/repo/derivatives contract debt there is globally? Why are private companies rejecting the China dead cat and dumping their devaluing local currencies to buy bonds which yield interest in a currency appreciating vs theirs that are safer and hyper-liquid? And on and on and on and on

[Anonymous No.54690335]

>>54690312
>You literally have no answer for this and have literally no idea what any of these terms even are
Why is the dollar devalued if the supply is apparently dead though?

[Anonymous No.54690339]

>>54689854
What's your definition of a happening?
Was 2008 crash nothing or a happening?
2020 covid?

[Anonymous No.54690361]

>>54690335
Lol once more see pic related in
>>54690312
The dollar milkshake even by its most diehard proponents (like Russell Napier or Brent Johnson) is expected to be punctuated by moments of devaluation on its ascent. This isn't even controversial. I seriously recommend you learn actually fundamental conceptual framework and stop counting triangles doing TA and getting wrecked by macro trends you don't even understand the source of months after they happen which people who understand predict months before they did. You are like the person who thinks to predict 2008 you had to read thousands of mortgages or that it was fundamentally a housing issue even still. Lol The fed even admitted they have no control or even reliable concept of money supply since the 80s. Commercial banks create the OVERWHELMING amount of dollars. Bank reserves are not dollars.
https://youtu.be/26SwAFwDze8

[Anonymous No.54690378]

>>54690361
Again, I believe the world will dedollarize. But the US wants to deglobalize. Manufacturing is leaving China and a lot will even come to the American southwest. The world is changing fundamentally and NONE of it indicates a shift to Yuan as anything other than a tapering mechanism

[Anonymous No.54690387]

>>54690378
I also believe the new currency will be asset backed for what its worth. The point is *what* we are transitioning to, and what happens in process of here to there. The dollar is not hyperinflated, you just don't understand money supply.

[Anonymous No.54690393]

>>54690312
The logical fallacy you just engaged in is called a gish gallop. Quit the meth pipe, put down your investopedia 101 pamphlet, and make one point at a time like a grown adult. This conversation started with the topic of the petrodollar getting dumped, which you've exclaimed is a nothingburger. This will result in inflationary many trillions of dollars getting circulated into the already bloated global supply. Again, you haven't addressed this either (then hypocritically accused me of projection). We also know the gov are too big of pussies to ever default on their debt further exacerbating this issue.

Idk what government agency pays you to come and cope on their behalf and attempt rhetoric despite us having lived through more than a decade of some of the most aggressive money printing combined with little to no interest (yes I understand the difference dipshit). You can continue copy pasting t bill, credit, swap, etc.. terminology in a disingenuous attempt at circumventing the conversation on global trade reserves, but nobody really cares. US dollars are gay and there's too many of them

[Anonymous No.54690430]

>>54690387
so...uhh....what is your projection for BTC for this year?

[Anonymous No.54690432]

>>54690393
Holy shit, why do people who don't understand informal reasoning ALWAYS insist on invoking fallacies? It isn't gish gallop. As with:
>>54690312
I presented a monumental amount of evidence of your wrongness, I didn't bury you in unrelated argumentative nothing. Reread the arguments. You literally know you lack the fundamental technical vocabulary to even judge them. How do you feel qualified to comment on them let alone lecture others (invalidly) fallacies? Lol You need to either watch more than the first lecture in the Great Courses series you bought on reasoning or more meaningfully study it. You lack the native skill to meaningfully engage in it without more diligent study. This is on par with when people call coherent writing they lack the attention/willingness/working memory to engage with "word salad," literally semi-consciously knowingly doing so because they feel like they don't know how to address it (and implicitly in choosing to do so are admitting they fundamentally don't care what's true (or at least not as much as saving face on an anon image board lol) or that they are too stupid or more likely short of attention to have understood it). Or you could go back to lreddit (not being trite or relying on personal attack for potency of argument, as post script to my argument and completely abstract from it, you are just clearly a lreddit fag type) and once more be one with theundeservedly self-assured heteronomous circle jerk? Up to you. Lol

[Anonymous No.54690442]

>>54690430
Uber crash on the back of the quad 4 bust in everything but inevitable rise later. To be honest I am a lot more bullish on"ISO coins" (colloquialism, any coin can be "ISO compliant") which will themselves crash with everything but I would hold a small bag of at all times just in case. You will know the crash.

[Anonymous No.54690449]

>>54690442
By quad 4 I mean deflationary cycle bust (it is a term used in econ, particularly by Keith Mccullough) not Q4 timewise. I think it will happen substantially pre-Q4..

[Anonymous No.54690487]

>>54690393
Going to bed now bro. Good luck. Watch the videos linked in
>>54690184
>>54690361
and read the link on the eurodollar. Watch Emil Kalinowski and Jeff's show starting with the first episode on Emil's channel. Within 5 episodes you will understand, especially if you read the more thorough research piece associated. Check out Jim Rickards, Brent Johnson, Keith Mccullough, George Gammon, etc. as an really good intro to macro.

[Anonymous No.54690566]

>>54689222
oh shit its nothing again

[Anonymous No.54690581]

>>54690432
>You lack the native skill to meaningfully engage in it without more diligent study. This is on par with when people call coherent writing they lack the attention/willingness/working memory to engage with "word salad,"
The opposite of this. Intelligent writers can use complex terminology, deploy a wide lexicon, and present intellectual ideas in a manner that is easily absorbed by the audience. You midwits however deliberately construe sentences in word salad to play smoke and mirrors and misdirection (see dianetics) Reading your conversation, I can tell you're something called a "gotcha!" debater. You're more interested in setting traps for your opponent than you are in discovering truth from a conversation. The entire second half of your post where you rambled about comprehension confirms your intended goal of the conversation:
>dump word salad which is incongruent to the conversation
>opponent doesn't address irrelevant thesaurus hip-fire
>take this as evidence in of itself that you're le esoteric gabble pro and nobody is smart like me xD

TLDR - anon never suggested he doesn't understand the terms you mentioned. You just like sniffing your own farts

[Anonymous No.54690604]

>>54690487
the same muttlicker threads flooding /biz/ every morning:
> No dollar crisis
> Muh economy strong
> Muh backed by army
Glow harder faggot!
Muttland is going down thanks to uncle Joe, say thank you to him!

[Anonymous No.54690631]

>>54690432
You wrote all that shit and didn't even make a single argument you colossal faggot. Your entire post was just
>SoijakPushingHisGlassesWithComputerScreenReflection.jpg

[Anonymous No.54690687]

>>54690432
>You literally know you lack the fundamental technical vocabulary to even judge them
>uhhhh chuddie chuddie, where did you get your immunology or heckin epidemiology degrees from? You think you can comment on the same topics as the EXPERTS?
>The SCIENCE is SETTLED. The USD is INDESTRUCTIBLE
>any questions?

[Anonymous No.54690701]

>>54689222
What will happen to treasury yields across the curve if the debt ceiling debate becomes an extended crisis?

[Anonymous No.54690707]

its cause people dont know what direction rates are gonna go next so they dont wanna get locked into long term bonds nigger

[Anonymous No.54690717]

>>54690263
why was milk so expensive back then?
Thats like 10 bucks a gallon today

[Anonymous No.54690727]

>>54689870
why though?

[Anonymous No.54690777]

>>54690387

The dollar is hyperinflated.

[Anonymous No.54690782]

>>54689222
This nigga just tried to explain yid curve inversion to /biz/
The fucking nerve

[Anonymous No.54690903]

>>54690707
Uh, no.
The site I use daily to check rates doesn’t include the one month rate.
Here’s a site with it, and convenient history.
https://www.barchart.com/economy/interest-rates

[Anonymous No.54690918]

>>54689801
I think they have 50 trillion in USD denominated debt.

[Anonymous No.54691172]

>>54689885
what are you on about
swap lines untapped, FIMA repo negligible, HKD peg hasn't broken yet
and the GILT market had nothing to do with dollars, UK reserves have not gone down

it is not a dollar shortage/collateral shortage move, it is all 100% safe haven trade

[also checked No.54691210]

>>54689222
>got my maximum $10k/yr of series I bonds in 2021 and 2022
>got $10k in 17-week bills that just matured
>immediately rolled it back into 17-week bills at higher interest rate
Livin the dream

[Anonymous No.54691364]

>>54691210
Should have gone to 13 week this cycle. The rate is higher than 17 week right now.

[Anonymous No.54691455]

>>54689927

Cause crypto is going down too.

[Anonymous No.54691491]

>>54691364
Cheers I’ll get em next time

[Anonymous No.54691610]

>>54689222

End is not here. Housing market to the moon anon.

[Anonymous No.54691639]

>>54690020
What a... Nice graph... Very informative.

[Anonymous No.54691675]

>>54690166
With the 1mo you know you will get paid back on time, the 2mo-3mo could have their payments delayed for an arbitrary amount of time as the govt fucks around doing nothing about the situation, which will cause the bond market to treat those bonds like poison during that window. The longer it goes on the bigger the "what if" factor becomes. It's not a high probability of occurring but it has before for short periods and who knows, maybe we will get a longer period of govt sponsored fuckery. Seems to be the goal par excellence of govt's worldwide the past few years.

[Anonymous No.54691702]

>>54689222
The thing is, nobody will know until after is over. The way our society works is that everything needs to look normal. It will look normal, media will tell you everything is normal, people around the world will act like everything is normal. And one day, it will pop. You will know when that is because someone will probably kill you to eat.

[Anonymous No.54691745]

What if it's almost entirely regional banks buy the shite out of it since the BTFP guarantees they can't lose money on it?
Nothingburger with yeetums high inflation later?

[Anonymous No.54691855]

>>54690687
Good job refuting his points with solid counterpoints. The use of misdirection and strawmans are tactics of the real glownigger.

[Anonymous No.54691891]

>>54690717
It was "more real." No growth hormones, more grass fed, etc

[Anonymous No.54691900]

I love Jeff Schneider but I want to know why he's a Jew

[Anonymous No.54691956]

>>54690263
>a new house was less than 2.5 years of average income
fuck nixon, fuck the jews, fuck the ladder pullers.

[Anonymous No.54691979]

Trump didn't shut down the government for his wall, why would this time be any different when the GOP has even less power?

[Anonymous No.54691989]

All this data is an irrelevant distraction. Low IQ+high IQ know dollar will be fucked. Own metals, land, stocks in companies that mine metals, btc, and some iso20022 coins.

[Anonymous No.54691991]

>>54689222
It;s because of the debt ceiling, they'll raise it no matter how much they larp about it,

[Anonymous No.54692007]

>>54689222
Can someone explain this is simpler terms? Why would there be a massive gap better 4 & 8 week T bill yields and what are the implications?

[Anonymous No.54692056]

>>54691989
What currency will stocks adjust to when the dollar gets dumped? Will my stocks rise to some crazy number of USD that is actually just adjusted to a middling amount of something else like bitcoin, or will I wake up to the dollar sign on my portfolio changed to some other symbol that represents an actually useful currency. How will society even adjust to the dollar being dumped? Will normalfags just start getting paid in something else? How will companies even do that? What happens to the billions of normalfags who only survive paycheck to paycheck and don't have a lot assets? A world currency collapsing seems like a calamity, something so huge happening in a world where nothing ever happens? i can't suspend my disbelief enough. No, I don't think there will be a 'dump', maybe 30+ years of slowly transitioning to something else so that there aren't hundreds of millions of people turned feral by suddenly having no ability to buy anything.

[Anonymous No.54692059]

>>54692007
Think of white women. They crave the bbc. It’s literally hardwired into their dna and brain to crave it. But the longer bbc stays with a white woman, the more likely bbc will see mental illness, and therefore the riskier it is. You don’t want long term dates yields/relationships. You want to hit it and quit it to minimize risk.

[Anonymous No.54692238]

>>54690200
Midwit take. It's literally this simple: before the US enforced usage of USD on the world through military. Now the US is too weak to do so/the rest of the world got stronger. There are benefits to saying "fuck the USD" for many countries thus they will say fuck the USD. The USD becomes as relevant as the previous world currency GBP. End of academic discussion you f4ggot Kenysian.

[Anonymous No.54692285]

>>54692059
How could there be such a massive yield spread in a 4 week difference? I’m holding 100k each in 4 and 8 week T bills. Should I roll the 4 weekers into 8’s now?

[Anonymous No.54692326]

>>54690020
>The comments show just how illiterate the average /biz/ poster is.

projection is a serious thing, your ignorance is dangerous, educate more and stop coping.

https://youtu.be/A5A5Eu0ra3I

[Anonymous No.54692335]

So this means something very big scary catastrophic bad happens within 2 months from now?

[Anonymous No.54692350]

>>54692335
Yes, as it always does.

[Anonymous No.54692356]

>>54692007
It means people incorrectly priced in a market crash and are buying back into longer term investments

[Anonymous No.54692360]

>>54691364
>>54691491
Wait I just checked and 17-week is the highest of all the tbills. Unless I’m missing something?

[Anonymous No.54692386]

>>54690020
>muh meme plot
Bridgewater is a den of literal homosexuals and you should stop simping for ((Dalio's)) nonsense

[Anonymous No.54692417]

>>54691991

No they won't. Not this time. And when that happens I'm waiting to see what this "Dollar Milkshake" clown has to say.

[Anonymous No.54692537]

>>54692360
I am not sure what you are looking at there.
Picrel and link following are the most current auction results. The 13 week has been leading the 17 week lately. The 17 week follows up after it. Currently the two are tied at the same rate in the last two auctions.
Click this link and select "Auction Results" tab.
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/upcoming/

[Anonymous No.54692630]

>>54692360
>>54692537
Also check here for more history.
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/auction-query/
Add the High Investment Rate column and search for "13-Week" or "17-Week".
Comparing the results shows the 13 week leading the 17 week recently.

[Anonymous No.54692643]

Have economists finally figured out that when the Fed says it will raise rates it actually means that the interest rate will increase?

[Anonymous No.54692716]

>>54692643
>actually believing ghe fed?
you mean like last year when they said hey werent even thunking about raising ratrs? or when they said inflation was transitory

[Anonymous No.54692736]

>>54692643
>actually believing the fed
you mean like last year when they said they werent even thinking about raising rates? or when they said inflation was transitory?

[Anonymous No.54692924]

>People want 1 month but 2 months is too spooky
dude what

[Anonymous No.54693050]

>>54692736
or maybe they're referring to the Fed saying they've begun QT, and restarting QE the second a small bank needs more shekels
The Fed has lost all credibility. Not that it had much left

[Anonymous No.54693100]

>>54693050
How has the Fed lost all credibility? The Fed literally said they were going to raise rates, and so they did. It's the US Congress that lost all credibility. They want to turn the money printer back on and rates dropped to 0% so they can print trillions for Ukraine without repercussions.

[Anonymous No.54693132]

>>54690051
>Brent Johnson
Brent Spencer Johnson is an American former professional ice hockey goaltender. He played in the National Hockey League for the St. Louis Blues, Phoenix Coyotes, Washington Capitals, and the Pittsburgh Penguins. He is currently a studio analyst for NBC Sports Washington. i watch but i don t understand the link with finance....he only talk sport.

[Anonymous No.54693145]

>>54690136

[Anonymous No.54693162]

>>54690777

[Anonymous No.54693166]

>>54689222
How do I profit from this

[Anonymous No.54693172]

>>54691210

[Anonymous No.54693187]

>>54693166
just buy war stocks. you will profit whatever happen ITA XAR

[Anonymous No.54693217]

>>54693187
In the end the answer is always guns eh

[Anonymous No.54693252]

>>54693217
don t hate the player. hate the game. https://www.businessinsider.com/nato-militaries-buying-f35-jets-with-baffling-exception-of-turkey-2023-4

[Anonymous No.54693259]

>>54689222
someone post the latest maid, I'm having a hard time reading these graphs without it

[Anonymous No.54693283]

>>54693259
do it yourself lazy genZ

[Anonymous No.54693523]

>>54690051

Snider is a clever idiot who rode bonds down to hell in the worst year they ever had because he completely and utterly blew the inflation call. He fundamentally misunderstands money creation and inflation as a product of money supply and he's in way too deep to ever admit it now. The Fed prints money. Deal with it.

Brent Johnson is a little better, but basically just says the same thing over and over: 'gosh, it's hard to replace the dollar guise so I don't think it'll happen, *shrug*'.

The dollar system really is not that complex or mysterious:

Dollars are useful as payment medium because they can be recycled into assets which have kept commodity-purchasing-power, like treasuries or US index funds. It's not to do with trust or the us military or w/e rhetorical bullshit, it's a very simple and practical matter for exporters. They need stable savings account with assets they can easily convert fuel or food, and preferably as much or more as they could have bought when they first made the money. It this isn't US assets it'll be gold or other commodities that can be stockpiled (as China was doing), and the dollar simply isn't needed for that.

Seizing dollar accounts damages that value proposition severely, as does pissing off oil producers. So the question is mainly if the US can engineer a pump in it's various asset shitcoins which is in excess of the rising costs of oil production. That is really it and that's why we became a (heavily subsidized and non-profitable) 'oil superpower' under a democratic admin. Nasdaq outperform oil? US winning. Nasdaq underperform oil? US losing. Simple as.

[Anonymous No.54693693]

>>54690194
>why is everyone scrambling for them at a literally record pace
doubt - the chart would go rapidly downwards then

[Anonymous No.54693740]

>buying bonds at 3.4% when FED bobo’s are flying us all the way to 10% interest rates

Those bonds will be worthless in 6 months.

[Anonymous No.54693912]

>>54693740
They rollover every couple months. If Powell is the real volker why did he cuck when Trump begged him to cut rates?

[Anonymous No.54693964]

>>54691956
You now understand why boomers think anyone younger than them are losers. For them, you had to be a giga loser not to own a bungalow a few years out of highschool. You could throw your dark at the hiring section of your local newspaper and have a home and 2 cars within 5 years.

[Anonymous No.54693973]

>>54693964
throw your dart*

[Anonymous No.54693975]

>>54692736
>>54693050
The only Big J has been iffy on has been covid shit which quite literally everyone (elite) was/is. He also has to raise rates otherwise there will be no pivot option.

[Anonymous No.54694004]

Investors piling into 1 month just signals immediate uncertainty, especially if the 2 month doesn’t move.
Comparing these 2 tenors is pointless for a normalfag loser investor like you

[Anonymous No.54694065]

>>54693912
Only because he knew he could go even higher on the rebound

[Anonymous No.54694244]

>>54690339
Both were mere corrections.

[Anonymous No.54694248]

>>54693132
This isn't the same Brent Johnson.
>>54693523
There is a difference between buying bonds at a low price and getting screwed becausw you can't afford to hold them to duration and have to sell at a loss and T bill rates which skyrocketed, which is literally Snider's entire thesis. Institutions holding duration on positions they bought 10 years ago got screwed. People who bought T bill and held it to duration rolled it over as it matured beat the market by over 20%, which is a large representation of WHY moneymarket funds drew so much deposits from banks, which were the major institutions that got screwed. Your argument is literally proof of his point, you just don't understand the difference in bond investment strategies.
>>54693693
What you aren't seeing in DXY you ARE seeing in treasury yields (see OP). Treasuries are the reserve asset of the world and represent dollar demand

[Pay Up No.54694271]

>>54690777
checked

[Anonymous No.54694317]

>>54690339
Those were both false flags.
Nothing ever fucking happens

[Anonymous No.54694320]

>>54689222
I could care less what’s going on. I’m comfy.

[Anonymous No.54694389]

>>54689222
>dont live in burgerland
>win
Eurobros we keep winning

[Anonymous No.54694414]

>>54690487
>George Gammon

[Anonymous No.54694501]

>>54690487
>Keith Mccullough
keith doesn't really talk about the eurodollars much at all
t. macro show subscriber

[Anonymous No.54694630]

>>54689222
There are a bunch of laws requiring various financial institutions to have collateral as t-bills (30 day) so what we are seeing is probably those entities increasing their collateral reserves of tbills as much as possible to withstand bank runs.

[Anonymous No.54694693]

>>54693912
powell
volker
choose one only

[Anonymous No.54694694]

>>54690020
>le paid chink shill ray "muttoid economics" dalio graph
Midwit detected opinion rejected

[Anonymous No.54694704]

>>54694414
biz...

[Anonymous No.54694770]

>>54689222
Wouldn't the 1 month still be a better deal? It will expire in 1 month and then you can reup, so you'd actually get a 6.8% return by the time the 5% return 2 month expires. Someone debunk me

[Anonymous No.54694790]

>>54694770
the yield is an annualized number, so for the 1 month you have to take the yield and divide by 12 to calculate your actual % return for 1 month. another issue is that yields could change a lot by the time you re-up, but your longer-dated bonds will be locked in for the entire duration

[Anonymous No.54694831]

>>54694790
>take the yield and divide by 12 to calculate your actual % return for 1 month
wtf that's basically nothing. So there's no reason for a retail investor to ever buy bonds

[Anonymous No.54694873]

>>54694831
>wtf that's basically nothing. So there's no reason for a retail investor to ever buy bonds
well there could be. a small yield is still better than no yield. personally, i dont mess with 1 month bonds, i just use a money market fund that yields about 4.5% on an annual basis, and it lets me stay liquid meaning i can withdraw the money at any time. its basically cash with a yield. the 1 month bonds seem like they're mostly being used by institutions as collateral to fund their trades

[Anonymous No.54694885]

>>54689885
>You already saw it with the GILT market in the UK.

[Anonymous No.54694900]

>>54694873
Thanks friend

[Anonymous No.54695116]

>>54694248

Snider's thesis was: "buy bonds cuz deflation not inflation, fed doesn't print money... oh THAT printed money, well uh I guess uh maybe they printed THAT money, but all this inflation was purely supply side I assure you, whups i got btfo on my long bond position and lost my job, anyhow let me tell you about eurodollars"

[Anonymous No.54695224]

>>54689870
He doesn’t know that the Fed buys these to try and lower inflation
He peanut understand QE
NGMI

[Anonymous No.54695246]

>>54689885
Swap loans went from weekly to daily recently. Could be swap loans to generate temp USD to buy these 30day Tbills

[Anonymous No.54695252]

>>54689222
>MUH DEBT CEILING
How are you retards still falling for this? NOTHING EVER HAPPENS REGARDING IT. They just end up raising it. When will you learn nothing ever happens?

[Anonymous No.54695524]

>>54694873
>i just use a money market fund
This anon understands the game

[Anonymous No.54696058]

>>54690182
People are desperate for dollars. The chart in ops post shows just that. When demand goes up, yields on tbills goes down. The fed has been raising rates and that's causing a shortage of dollars in the whole world. One of the reason the second world nations are trying to replace the dollar now is because there are not enough dollars to facilitate international trade.

[Anonymous No.54696137]

>>54690387
A new currency will absolutely not be asset backed. The purpose of issuing a new currency is to continuing robbing thr system, not to go straight and be a good person.

[Anonymous No.54696187]

>>54692056
2046 is the final year for the WEF crowd; they need to get through the gate (to hell) before then.

[Anonymous No.54696196]

>>54690701
Rise because of the nrisk of default. They will raise the ceiling though.

[Anonymous No.54696266]

>>54689222
>a sign that some people are panicking and piling into whatever they can for near term safety
Check bank liabilities. People are pulling there bank deposits out and putting their cash into money markets. Banks are fucked. The ability to borrow easy and cheap money is coming to a end. This is way worse than you think. Every asset class that was propped up by easy cheap debt is about to get a hair cut.

[Anonymous No.54696278]

>>54696196
Across the whole curve or just the short end?

[Anonymous No.54696306]

>>54689694
Week ending April 19 had net outflows. From MMF. Try again.

[Anonymous No.54696407]

>>54695116
That isn't his position at all. Lol He still says there was no printing and mocks Powell saying he "flooded the world with $" because there objectively wasn't and he objectively didn't.
>>54694501
Completely agree but he talks A LOT about liquidity and the cycle and is worth learning from on the market level side of things. He had Jeff on a few times and talks about how Jim Rickards is one of his favorite authors and how he has all of his books dog eared and sticky noted.
>>54695246
Doesn't explain the differential in bill yields/RRP let alone multi-consecutive 0.000% low bids at auction or the use of the Fed's primary credit window/swap lines/new four letter liquidity facilities or the behavior in GC/triparty repo. If anything it is more likely a new process to help people source collateral in a more regular way, just like how Fed switched their swaplines to be more regularly accessable at a lower premium. Literally everything points to a global dollar shortage of epic unseen proportions, culmination of Asian Financial Crisis/08/etc can kick

[Anonymous No.54696416]

>>54694414
George is great as an intro and in general. Sorry if he isn't deep cut enough for you to feel cool listening to and not understanding half of what he says

[Anonymous No.54696433]

>>54693523
Also worth mentioning the whole SWIFT freeze etc. was a SUPER nothing burger. Almost all US dollar banking is done offshore and being unable to access SWIFT doesn't preclude access to the eurodollar system and Russia planned for it. The Ruble surged against the event. Lol Markets know this. When US announced "serious" sanctions, gold surged and bitcoin tanked, when it was revealed to be a nothingburger access to financial messaging through SWIFT, the trend reversed. The only people who didn't understand were dumb retail investors.

[Anonymous No.54696449]

>>54696196

[Anonymous No.54696464]

>>54696196
>>54696449

[Anonymous No.54696478]

>>54696433
Trend reversed INSTANTLY with the announcement by the way. People risked on to rug retail later when real shit hit the fan

[Anonymous No.54696539]

>>54696196
>>54696449
>>54696464

[Anonymous No.54696572]

>>54689222
This will force them to print more money which will make line go up. Line go up is good.

[Anonymous No.54696580]

it is inflation or deflation or yes

[Anonymous No.54696690]

>>54690217
>Thankfully the bad guys lost and the new system is going to be good
are you being sarcastic? if not, please explain

[Anonymous No.54696840]

>>54694004
underrated

[Anonymous No.54696912]

>>54696572
>Line go up is good.

[Anonymous No.54696935]

>>54696690
Rather than hyper-centralized globalism we are decentralizing and deglobalizing. The WEF/CCP lost and the world won because of it

[Anonymous No.54696974]

>>54696407
>He had Jeff on a few times
i know but he also calls out the fact that Jeff is a smart dude but can't make money. his deep understanding of the eurodollar has not enabled him to profit from it

[Anonymous No.54697232]

>>54689509
>and the only question is when

I'd say fourteen days.

[Anonymous No.54697485]

>>54694630
Notable take.
The real question is who exactly was it that bid to purchase these 4 week bills at such a lower rate?

[Anonymous No.54697494]

>>54696266
>Every asset class that was propped up by easy cheap debt is about to get a hair cut.
I assume that also includes money market funds as well?

[Anonymous No.54697496]

>>54694831
Stop being retarded and look at the bigger picture brainlet.

[Anonymous No.54697501]

>>54689222
Ccheck'm rolling for ultimate deflation

[Anonymous No.54697541]

>>54689694
Mfw I pulled out of all the spaxx faxx and money market judentax

[Anonymous No.54697603]

>>54694873
>>54695524
>willfully paying someone to assist you in making a lesser gain
No they don't get it and neither do you. The only way this strategy makes sense is for wanna be day traders burning their stack on the way back to their job at McDicks. It never ceases to amaze how many of you retards will quibble over losing fractions of a percent on investment strategies then go on to argue pissing money away paying middle men to handle your treasury investements at lesser gain is such great strategy. Sit down and stfu already. Learn to maximize your mid term strategy before offering advice ffs.

[Anonymous No.54697652]

>>54689222
>FOR RETARDS:
>[a bunch of boring pointless technical mubmbo jumbo that only makes sense to white men]
someone wanna explain what this ACTUALLY means? am i apposed to sell my link now?

[Anonymous No.54697782]

>>54696974
That doesn't make him wrong about specifically what he is right about. And either way this is a place where both agree on outcome.

[Anonymous No.54698078]

>>54690100
They may want the crash for other purposes.

[Anonymous No.54698130]

>>54690100
But then why would they take that hedge? They are pooling from elsewhere right? Are they obligated and speculation is driving the price to fuck them?

[Anonymous No.54698145]

isnt this bullish for bitcoin?

[Anonymous No.54698520]

>>54698145
Not short term

[Anonymous No.54698666]

I’m sitting on a pile physical gold so I couldn’t really give a shit, good luck with your funny money bond market losers

[Anonymous No.54698800]

>>54696935
I hope this is true

[Anonymous No.54698852]

>>54689222
>If yields rise (less people are buying treasuries)
>this means peoples risk appetite is higher aka they are buying riskier assets.
retard

[Anonymous No.54698860]

>>54690113
nations are in debt to the US and need dollars to pay the debt
simple as that
it has nothing to do with any of this: >>54690143

[Anonymous No.54698888]

as a desert-wandering XRP schizo i say
>REPENT
>THE END IS NEAR
>YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED
>BY THE TIME THE SIGNS BECOME CLEAR IT WILL BE TOO LATE

[Anonymous No.54698918]

>>54698888
If the signs are clear that it will fall and it doesn't does that mean the end is far?

[Anonymous No.54698925]

>>54689409
This guy's a fuggin turd lmao so stupid DURRR

[Anonymous No.54699118]

>>54698145
Bitcoin is just a tech stock index

[Anonymous No.54699275]

>>54698800
It is

[Anonymous No.54699281]

>>54698860
They are in debt to the US and each other at worse levels than US is in debt to them as ratio to GDP. It has to do with both, you just don't know enough about payments to understand

[Anonymous No.54699333]

babby's first debt ceiling?

[Anonymous No.54699582]

kill every single american

[Anonymous No.54699660]

>>54689222
all I know is I bought $250K 6 month Tbills for the first time in my life because yields hit 5%
banks are still paying 1-2% at most to have your money
enough with this jew shit already

[Anonymous No.54699942]

>>54698666
Based satan trips.

[Anonymous No.54699947]

Thing will keep going go as they are, till they cant.

[Anonymous No.54700073]

>>54699947
Zoom out

[Anonymous No.54700357]

>>54689222
>US has never defaulted on its debt.
Huh? They defaulted on their promise to redeem all currency in gold. They also continually default by inflation.

[Anonymous No.54700397]

>>54700357
We almost defaulted several times between 1870-1913 it's why the Federal Reserve was created.

[Anonymous No.54700420]

>>54692007
People are buying shorter term 1-month t-bill that's why the yields are going down
and they're selling longer term 2-month t-bill that's why yield is pumping

normally the more longer the maturity are the more yield it gets because the risk is greater than short term

[Anonymous No.54700451]

>>54694831
if you think retail investors are pure gamblers then derivatives are their play
bonds are not for them

[Anonymous No.54700606]

>>54692386
>>54694694
>>54691639
>>54690020
It's is my hypothesis that Asians are used as a representation of aliens in "popular culture". Since everyone knows China is not a chance of actually becoming the next superpower, this meme graph is a work of popular fiction like a movie or music video. Therefore this image represents the coming rise of the ayys (and the downfall of America).

[Anonymous No.54700631]

>>54689222
So people are flooding into the dollar.
Kek
/Biz/ is so retarded.

[Anonymous No.54700639]

The problem with most of you macrofags is you only apply monetary events to your predictions when looking into your crystal ball. You have to factor in politics too. The US can’t hide behind morality anymore. The world is sick of being bullied, threatened and sanctioned from the SWIFT system. It’s all falling apart and the only way back is for us the accept our position as global bully and ignite WWIII. Nobody is scared of us after we showed we can’t even beat some towel heads in Afghanistan. The dollar is cooked

[Anonymous No.54700690]

>>54700639
>Everyone flooding to dollars
>It's cooked
Nice analysis based on hippy lolberg fantasy.

[Anonymous No.54700692]

>>54700631
Wallstreet paying back their debts and bailing in the Treasury because good interest rates.

What a time to be alive!?

[Anonymous No.54701260]

>>54689222

> 164 basis points

oh no! muh heckin le basis points

[Anonymous No.54701309]

>>54700690
>he thinks other nations will continue flooding into US treasuries instead of investing in emerging markets.
>That’s it ladies and gentlemen. The global financial war is over.
Good luck trying to convince a godless nation of nigger victims and trannys to fight a Jew banker war against Russia and China. You have no clue what’s coming.

[Anonymous No.54701325]

>>54690604
NOTHING EVER HAPPENS

[Anonymous No.54701441]

>>54694065
You have to be kidding.
Powell looks so nervous he could vomit at any moment in press conferences.

[Anonymous No.54702374]

>>54689854
The final redpill

[Anonymous No.54702418]

>>54696464
He said inflation was transitory.

He said WHY THE HELL WOULD THAT HAPPEN. IT MAKES NO SENSE.

That is his argument. He likes to be a contrarian for the sake of being a contrarian..

It's stupid.

[Anonymous No.54702451]

>>54698852
That's obviously correct though? Yields up, prices down, people are selling bonds, 99% of cases that means they're buying riskier assets.

[Anonymous No.54702454]

>>54696464

[Anonymous No.54702569]

>>54689509
This. EUR and JPY are trashier than USD and Europe is going full fucking woke-isthan rn. Demographics are shit. We have imported half of near and middle east and some parts of africa noone ever heard of into our welfare systems while we kill our currency and industries with devastating monetary and fiscal policies. If I could get US citizenship immidiately I wouldn't even wait a day to fly over there.

[Anonymous No.54702745]

>>54689885
>You already saw it with the GILT market in the UK.
BS. The british pension funds were overleveraged. They used longterm low interest bonds/gilts as collateral to buy more of them. When their finance cunt (I forgot her name) said she wants higher rates and qt the prices crashed and they got margin calls.

[Anonymous No.54702825]

>>54690068
finally, someone making sense

[Anonymous No.54702847]

What happens when all these overleveraged US municipalities with 90% unfunded pension liabilities start shitting the bed? With the Fed bail them out after they’ve bled their taxpayers to death?

[Anonymous No.54702907]

>>54702847
yield curve control, just like the bank of england did a few months back

[Anonymous No.54703015]

>>54698918
the clarity of the signs depends on the eyes you are using to see them with

[Anonymous No.54703121]

>>54702847
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/06/bank-of-england-says-pension-funds-were-hours-from-disaster-before-it-intervened.html
the fed's current emergency loan facility is to increase liquidity and collateralization so that something like that won't happen (basically the fed is lending banks, especially regional banks, money at low interest so they can be more resilient to market fluctuations or potential bank runs)

the question is, will this yield curve control-lite be enough?
>YCC-lite
i mean central banks like BoE, the Fed, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Japan putting banks' underwater portfolios of low-performing treasuries and other assets on their own balance sheet as they pump the interest rate in an effort to combat inflation.
whether the YCC is de facto or de jure it's the same result

anyway will these band-aid solutions to enormous systemic/structural problems be enough? i think they have served their purpose, which was mainly to keep the system held together with duct tape while the truly powerful people filed for the exits without causing a panic (ex: Rothschild bank buying back shares and going private, Vatican bank calling home all assets to the holy see)

i think we're about to see a huge liquidity crunch, an intentional popping of all bubbles at once by BRICS to cause a stampede for the exit, massive cascading sovereign debt crises across the world followed by a collective refusal to pay in USD. probably triggered by a cyber attack on payment systems like SWIFT and credit card networks.

[Anonymous No.54703149]

why do all of the threads on biz read like chatbots these days

[Anonymous No.54703263]

>>54702847
They go into receivership and the city bankruptcy manager starts implementing austerity measures while the auntion off all the cities assets. This will happen in most blue bubble cities with populations from 80-250k. The city workers unions negotiated their own contracts and robbed these places blind. There will definitely be a municipal bond meltdown in the near future.

[Anonymous No.54703285]

>>54689222
>They are considered a very safe investment considering the US has never defaulted on its debt.
Not true, the US technically defaulted on their gold/silver obligations back when they outlawed private ownership of gold and silver, they had gold bonds issued. They did something similar when Nixon went to fiat.

[Anonymous No.54703357]

>>54703121
>i think we're about to see a huge liquidity crunch, an intentional popping of all bubbles at once by BRICS to cause a stampede for the exit, massive cascading sovereign debt crises across the world followed by a collective refusal to pay in USD. probably triggered by a cyber attack on payment systems like SWIFT and credit card networks.
Will that be the chain of events that herd the sheep into CBDC?

[Anonymous No.54703363]

>>54700073
Zoom in to this month. A bottom is forming, so you better prepare your anus.

[Anonymous No.54703732]

>>54689870
>>54689875
>>54689885
>>54690081
>>54690134
>>54690136
>>54690143
>>54690184
>>54690194
>>54690200
>>54690217
>>54690361
>>54690378
>>54690387
>>54690432
>>54690442
>>54690449
>>54690487
If ANYBODY is wondering how we got into this mess it's thanks to people like this.
Nobody needs dollars. Countries and people around the world do not need pieces of paper or digital USD for any reason.
What we need is stuff. Surplus of labor and equipment, commodities and material. We do not need US Dollars.
This delusion about indebting the world and thus we ourselves can become indebted explains how from the very highest levels of the American Empire there is a complete misunderstanding of where prosperity and wealth comes from.
If these countries and people begin to stop borrowing in USD, the dollar denominated debt worldwide, the source of power of the USA, will decrease. It does not matter if Australia takes out a 50 Trillion dollar line with the USA and says we will hand you everything this country produces for the next 100 years. The US Dollar is going to be created to fund American debts, and then some, and the world is anticipating that the speed of Dollar creation will increase. Eurodollars will not be difficult to acquire, and the first to leave this system will benefit from not being the last to hand over ACTUALLY valuable items and commodities/goods.
This is the delusion that has destroyed us. This belief that the world needs the USA more than the USA needs the world is coming to an end. It is precisely thanks to this philosophy, and the abuse and excesses that came with the privilege, that the USA will need to actually produce and consume on a proportionate level.
It's one thing to convince a few million people in every country to help exploit the nation on behalf of the United States' protection and blessing (and the USA made these people rich, think MBS- Saudi Arabia), but that doesn't last.

[Anonymous No.54703802]

>>54703732

[Anonymous No.54703827]

>>54689870
People are buying short term treasury bills because they're out performing inflation and the stock market. Historically speaking the market crashes after the fed piviots. So once Jerome starts being bullish is when you should sell

[Anonymous No.54703830]

>>54703802
onshore the manufacturing, decrease consumption, increase savings, monetize the debt, re-open the gold window, don't throw the armed forces at retarded objectives

[Anonymous No.54703893]

>>54703121
>BRICS
>Brazil only relevant in S.A.
>Russia embroiled in a slugfest and has an economy the size of Texas
>India literally aligned with US and hates China
>China that hates India
>South Africa a literal failed state

You are deeply unserious

[Anonymous No.54703907]

>>54701309
Literally nothing is coming because jews control china and russia too. There already is a world government it just isn't formalized yet. The USA will not suddenly collapse because jews don't want it to suddenly collapse.

[Anonymous No.54703911]

>>54703121
>BRICS
The entire world can be against the U.S but we'll still come out in top because we have the Hulkster the one and only Hulk Hogan on our side

[Anonymous No.54703953]

>>54690263
Why are you trying to talk to an USA stronk retard.
Let them burn, they know very deep down its happening, its pure cope and its delicious.
The whole world is waiting for its downfall, its only a matter of time right now, US has no allies and they are predating themselves its kinda funny even.

[Anonymous No.54704370]

>>54703121
I was thinking of hiding out in UST / USD for a while before pivoting back into XAU or just retreating back into CAD

[Anonymous No.54704645]

>>54703911
That's right Mean Gene.
-HH

[Anonymous No.54705114]

>>54703911
Good luck with that. The gooks are taking over

[Anonymous No.54705872]

>>54697782
>That doesn't make him wrong about specifically what he is right about.
what is Jeff Snider right about?

[Anonymous No.54706790]

Just wanted to say I love these threads so much more than the crypto spamming. I am not smart enough to discuss but I like to read your comments. Thank you anons ITT

[Anonymous No.54707087]

>>54704370
>retreating back into CAD
>holding the oil token when the world is plunging into a depression

[Anonymous No.54707152]

>>54707087
agreed that could be a concern, so I'd have to weigh that up very carefully

[Anonymous No.54707273]

>>54706790
Same. I read these threads so I can maybe collect some nuggets of wisdom from frens who are much more knowledgeable and smarter than me. I need someone to boil global socioeconomic theories down to retard level and also include a few antisemetic memes and the word nigger for me to truly grasp a subject. Stay blessed frens.

[Anonymous No.54707305]

>>54707152

Anon, I am begging you, you want to keep 0% of your NW in CAD. CAD exists for selling oil and Toronto real estate, and demand for both is about to fall off a cliff again. Look at 2020 for a preview of the best case midterm scenario, except in that scenario you don't also have a housing crash and entrenched inflation

[Anonymous No.54707701]

>>54706790
I'd rather read speculations about real world rather than delusional crypto grifters
at least when people talk about real world economy you can relate to it
in order to understand the crypto bullshit you gotta be a cultist nerd
what the fuck is defi and "smart contract" and how is "polkadot" different from "doge"
it's like reading about pokemon with all the silly names, but somehow there are a lot of money there

[Anonymous No.54708073]

>>54707701
>what's this "email" and how's it different from a fax machine
>how's a "web page" supposed to sell stuff

[Anonymous No.54708118]

>>54707305
point taken, I know CAD sucks, I earn it it :-(
even one of my kids was pissed today, he'd been saving up for some lego but as he's a kid he did it in CAD. Well, lego went up in price by a lot.
Should I show him the BoC inflation official rate or will he tell me it's bollocks? Why can't Canadians work this out if kids can?

[Anonymous No.54708159]

>>54708073
call me when crypto has any use cases other than buying drugs and nft ponzi schemes

[Anonymous No.54708206]

>>54708159
It already does. You've been left behind. Goodbye.

[Anonymous No.54708279]

>>54708118

Most people will believe anything if you tell it to them a couple of times, and about half of the remainder will know they're being lied to but comply anyway. I wouldn't worry about it

>>54708159
>call me when this "email" has any use cases beyond chain letters and virus scams
>on my real phone, on the wall in my house, not some "cell" I'm supposed to carry around with me

kek you're going to manage to miss out on life changing money 3 times in a decade

[Anonymous No.54708281]

>>54705872
Spreads in interest rates, the implications, and the deflationary quad 4 he has been calling since the eurodollar futures inverted over a year ago. Who gives a fuck if he picks bad stocks, he is telling you the macro picture which is true and Keith Mccullough and Jim Rickards (who calls Jeff Snider a "national treasure") agree with by the way.

[Anonymous No.54708297]

>>54708279
casino isn't a new use case anon, they already have those
>>54708206
seems like a lot of cope without examples

[Anonymous No.54708320]

>>54703827
What do you think you are saying that is new here? Historically speaking the stock market crashes after the yield curve uninverts. The fed is a psychological operation you pay too much attention to.

[Anonymous No.54708345]

>>54703732
Your graphic is dumb. Do the same for EMs trading in the dollar they are desperate for against their devaluing currency. Good luck setting up the financial infrastructure before the debt needs rolled. Hundreds of trillions in derivatives. You don't understand macro and wrote 3 huge paragraphs proving it..

[Anonymous No.54708360]

>>54708297
>if i wanted to send someone a letter, I have the US Mail!
>if i'm not home, people can leave a message on my answering machine!
>why should my business have a "web page" when there's the yellow pages

kek

>what possible use case could there be for an unconfiscable, zero- or low-inflation store of value that can be transferred permissionlessly, instantly, literally anywhere in the world, 24/7?
>programmable equities? sounds made up

[Anonymous No.54708379]

>>54702745
And as the fed raised rates they had to follow suit and their positions got ruined just like commercial real estate and regional banks. GILT happening was a predicted outcome following (massive continued) JPY intervention months earlier. What is your point? I don't think you understand collateral markets

[Anonymous No.54708430]

>>54702418
He said (quoting Milton Friedman) that inflation is at all times a monetary phenomenon and that consumer price inflation was due to fiscal policy and mostly a supply shock from Ukraine (inarguably true) and that it was not an entrenched function of monetary policy or "money printing" (again, learn what a bank reserve is and that it is not effective money). It is by a technical definition transitory, which is his whole point, just like his statement about recession not technically being just 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP despite agreeing where we are and are headed and predicting it before you even considered it and we are inarguably trending disinflationary (pending another supply shock type event) already, which again would NOT be the case if this were monetary debasement. Lol Learn macro

[Anonymous No.54708441]

>>54708379
>>54708430

People not getting the absolute supernova of "oh shit" CBs have created in the bond market is pretty funny 2bh. Can't wait for them to blame the "trillions in SHADOW MONEY" or whatever scary name they come up with to panic the boomers into CBDCs

>>54702745
>The british pension funds were overleveraged.

They weren't overleveraged until rate hikes devalued the gilts they held as collateral, while also crushing the equities they bought

[Anonymous No.54708474]

>>54708360
>what possible use case could there be for an unconfiscable, zero- or low-inflation store of value that can be transferred permissionlessly, instantly, literally anywhere in the world, 24/7?
right, so buying drugs, I already told you this
you can go send it anywhere, but whenever it touches real world the banks will be there to collect the tax on all of your casino earnings
>programmable equities? sounds made up
it is

[Anonymous No.54708526]

>>54708441
All of Britain relies on the flawed assumption that rates will fall *forever*.
They are leveraged to the fucking moon vs real productive activity

[Anonymous No.54708583]

>>54708474
>don't try to sell me none of this "internet" scam!!
>good luck trying to make money on nerds arguing about star trek and grainy pictures of porn!!

kek I am thankful for you guys. when I was a kid in the 90s I got to see several dumb relatives Not Get It as my dad desperately tried to clue them into how the internet was going to change everything, and now I get to enjoy seeing a whole new generation of retards get left behind

namaste

>>54708526

It is hilarious how bad it's going to get. Every government's in debt up to its eyeballs, the fool in the shower has broken the bond market trying to fight "inflation" so basically every bank is functionally insolvent, ditto for every pension fund as the ratio of productive employee to retiree continues to slide in the wrong direction and third worlders aren't making up the ga, GPT has basically already made most white collar jobs obsolete and geoarbitrage will take care of the rest, taxes can't be raised, and while we're trending deflationary we're still in a huge asset bubble

[Anonymous No.54708601]

>>54708583
God I hope the boomers finally get fucked over

[Anonymous No.54708613]

>>54689801
EUR is wrapped USD with a german salt on top

[Anonymous No.54708617]

>>54708601
>God I hope the boomers finally get fucked over

nigga are you serious, remember two years ago when they demanded we all get locked in our homes for years because they were afraid of the flu?

they're about to vote for CBDCs and a global wealth cap so their pension checks arrive on time

[Anonymous No.54708618]

>>54708430
wait i can't tell, are you quoting Milton Friedman without a trace of irony

[Anonymous No.54708636]

>>54703732
>schiff going off on brent live on /biz/

[Anonymous No.54708677]

>>54708617
A man gotta dream

[Anonymous No.54708685]

>>54708583
Internet allowed you to connect to anything across the world which didn't exist before, but everything crypto does right now banks are already doing better while satisfying all the people that pave the roads and military in real world where your crypto nerd body is
I'm not against crypto trying to code the entire financial system along with the laws into 50s cryptography and I would be happy if that was what was discussed on this board
But all crypto threads are about grifting and casino and there's literally no other topics being discussed other than some "heists"

[Anonymous No.54708752]

>>54689854

Two more weeks right anon?

[Anonymous No.54708767]

>>54708685
>banks are already doing better

lmao oh god, the next 6 months are going to be so funny. Also, for just one very most basic example, I can transfer 500 grand to another address anywhere in the world, practically instantly, at 3 in the morning on a federal holiday if I feel like it. And nobody can stop me. Try doing that with a wire transfer. The Fed right now is publicly orgasming that it is trying out a similar solution to what every crypto wallet has offered for more than a decade, for interbank transfers only ofc

Or, if you're say in a country where things get unstable and you need to leave, you can carry your net worth across borders as 12 words memorized or emailed to yourself. Bank accounts can be frozen, properties encumbered and sezied etc

Then you get into smart contracts which is where all the cool stuff happens. Programmable equities are going to be as much of a game-changer as e-commerce.

>But all crypto threads are about grifting and casino and there's literally no other topics being discussed other than some "heists"

that's because there are a healthy contingent of degen millionaires here who are always looking for a new gamble. That's like looking at the GME/BBY victims and deciding the stock market is a casino. There's more there than shitcoins

[Anonymous No.54708796]

>>54708617
>they're about to vote for CBDCs and a global wealth cap so their pension checks arrive on time
not a problem for those inside DeFi, Monero, btc and other working protocols
the bill either rekts what's left of the serfs or pushes wealth inside DeFi
we cannot lose

[Anonymous No.54708834]

>>54708685
>But all crypto threads are about grifting and casino and there's literally no other topics being discussed other than some "heists"
because you only read biz and don't talk on DAO forums
this is by design too, we publicly show a cassino while we build the financial infrastructure on the dark
>wait, where did these protocols come from? I though cypto was about dogs and cats
die boomer

[Anonymous No.54708842]

>>54689222
we had 1st inflation yes but what about 2nd inflation?

[Anonymous No.54708863]

>>54689222
Looks kinda like my headphone graph

[Anonymous No.54708881]

>>54708618
No, I'm saying you are retarded for not attributing him as quoting Friedman. And whether or not you like him he is inarguably right about inflation as being an exclusively monetary phenomenon, you just don't understand money supply and understand economics in general very little. You think you are smart for opposing people who prove you wrong and show how inept/ignorant you were to not see something this predictable (by looking at literally like 10 graphs) over a year ago. Sorry this is hard for you but it really isn't interesting to me to be the wet rag in your uncritical coping process

[Anonymous No.54708883]

>>54708796

one hopes

[Anonymous No.54708910]

>>54708636
He's literally wrong. And seethed for like 1000 words showing it proving nothing with a graph on inflationary hit to savings. lol Not the W you think it is.

[Anonymous No.54708959]

>>54708767
>>54708834
>And nobody can stop me
right, so we're going right back to buying drugs
>Or, if you're say in a country where things get unstable and you need to leave, you can carry your net worth across borders as 12 words memorized or emailed to yourself. Bank accounts can be frozen, properties encumbered and sezied etc
fantasy scenario, cashing in or out $10k out of any non-government approved banks is an automatic audit/fraud investigation
I will concede that that is very convenient, but no one ever actually done this or will do this without massive headache legalizing all of that money
>are going to be as much of a game-changer as e-commerce
I am eagerly awaiting reinvention of dividends in crypto space, that is going to be a game changer for sure

[Anonymous No.54708988]

>>54689222
This is 100% people staying away from 2month due to risk of the debt sealing show down Turing into an economic melt down. Anyone saying something else is an idiot

[Anonymous No.54708997]

>>54708959
>right, so we're going right back to buying drugs
lmao absolutely hopeless
>fantasy scenario, cashing in or out $10k out of any non-government approved banks is an automatic audit/fraud investigation
almost got the point

>I am eagerly awaiting reinvention of dividends in crypto space, that is going to be a game changer for sure
>autonomous programs running on a decentralized global supercomputer are "dividends"

i genuinely hope you have fun staying poor lol. maybe google smart contracts some day, you've got some time before risk is a good idea anyway

[Anonymous No.54709074]

>>54708997
just because your transactions are cryptographically signed and distributed doesn't mean they have any relation to the real world
my master's thesis was about cryptography
isn't it super cool how you can verify that it was certainly this guy that sent this message at this time? Sure is! How is it going to entice people to convert their lifeblood dollars into something no one oversees other than potential to win money on casino? Fuck knows
All of the "use cases" you posted was effectively "anonymous money" and yeah, you can use it to buy drugs. But you have to be delusional that any real world company is going to run to unregulated space with "autonomous programs running on a decentralized global supercomputer"

[Anonymous No.54709132]

>>54709074
>>my master's thesis was about cryptography
>i'm an electrical engineer, I think I'd know if this "internet" was something to get excited about!

lmao

>i don't get it so it's not real!

you win anon! you're going to feel silly in about a year though

[Anonymous No.54709167]

>>54709132
what's going to happen in about a year?
surely one of shitcoins peddled here will finally touch real world and the happy shitcoin investors are going to go to the moon
I can see how eventually crypto would be able to produce some codebase of value, but I don't see a scenario in which current shitcoin holders won't be fucked in the ass with a real world entity reusing the algorithm, but with a different seed lmao

[Anonymous No.54709180]

>>54689222
Isn't that just FED who is in control of the front end of the yield curve?

[Anonymous No.54709214]

>>54709167
>shitcoins peddled here

lol imagine all you knew about the stock market was the GME/BBY/AMC threads here, and then when people tried to tell you about other companies, saying "lol if that's true how come I see threads on 4chan about Gamestop?"

>reusing the algorithm, but with a different seed lmao

lol this is my favorite, this intersection of not knowing anything about the subject but thinking you know everything about the subject, ensuring the funniest possible outcome. I call it the Hannity/Maddow Zone Of Silly

[Anonymous No.54709227]

>>54709167
Network effects, impregnable scarcity/supply, and dirt cheap transactions for a commodity. That's all you need to know.

[Anonymous No.54709235]

the smart thing to invest in is T women (trans women)

[Anonymous No.54709296]

>>54690432
it feels so good to get that shit out doesnt it

[Anonymous No.54709844]

>>54708281
>and Jim Rickards (who calls Jeff Snider a "national treasure") agree with by the way
jeff are you posting about yourself

[Anonymous No.54709895]

>>54690263
What do you think US style QE does?

[Anonymous No.54709913]

>>54689222
>END IS HERE ANONS
That's LITERALLY about the retarded "debt ceiling" nonsense, retard.

[Anonymous No.54710048]

>>54709180
Gundlach claims the FED just follows the 2-year treasury

[Anonymous No.54710115]

>>54690378
There's no water in the southwest. That seems like a bad idea.

[Anonymous No.54710120]

Posting in epic thread

[Anonymous No.54710217]

>>54698666
Someone buying and selling the mark

[Anonymous No.54710280]

>>54697485
I don't know specifically but I think it's sensible to think it's just the banks and especially the mid sized banks because of the recent bank turmoil after SVB went belly up.

[Anonymous No.54710637]

>>54709235
"Trans women" are objectively inarguably confused men. Sincerely hope you figure it out and don't mutilate yourself into open flesh wound.

[Anonymous No.54710651]

>>54709844
This response doesn't distract from you having no argument and literally just being determined to disagree and feel as though your represented the authoritative position which is neither a sucker to institution or weird fringe. Lol My response which you can't respond to just proves you are either stupid but lucky/vain enough to have plugged into keith or fool to the former. Find real meaning.

[Anonymous No.54712478]

>>54710651
>30 pbtid

[Anonymous No.54712722]

>>54691989
This pretty much. You can skip the rest of the thread

[Anonymous No.54712761]

>>54703732
excellent post, capped. Surprised no one has praised this, but pearls before swine I guess.

[Anonymous No.54714364]

>>54703732
based
the dumbs and devil worshippers will hate

[Anonymous No.54714536]

>>54708863
Uncanny

[Anonymous No.54714818]

>>54689222
stay liquid
Everyone is talking about hyperinflation, I think the government will actually go for deflation in the short term.
The rest of the world is getting pissed off with us and everything that we've done, and they're getting especially pissed off with the way that we fucked their energy markets with inflation and military intervention in 2019-2022.
We're in a tremendously untenable position right now and the yield curve is signaling a massive recession/depression in Q3-Q4 2023. The government doesn't really give a shit about its debts because they issue the currency. HOWEVER
Everyone took the opportunity in 2019-2021 to absolutely load themselves with debt because of the low interest rates, general scarcity, and availability of debt. a shitton of people decided to HELOC/CORefinance/DSCR loan themselves into new properties as a hedge against inflation and because the opportunity presented itself. Most people have a huge fraction of their total wealth in the stock market.
The rest of the world is also dealing with the dollar milkshake right now.
if the fed and the government decide to just let deflation happen, it'd actually be very advantageous to those in power.
Most people would be stuck paying down inflated debt with strong dollars (or default). People holding assets would be fucked sideways, especially those living off retirement. A large proportion of people would be forced back into the workforce. PM's would drop in value, and so would cryptos as cash gets strong.
Basically everyone would be forced out of investment positions to use cash, at which point somewhere down the road, new cash gets printed and given to the banks to start scooping distressed assets again.

[Anonymous No.54714925]

>>54712761
>>54714364
Once people understand what is going on, it's too late.

[Anonymous No.54715150]

>>54689222
Treasury yields are the interest rates that the US government pays on its debt, and they are determined by the demand for and supply of government bonds. When demand for Treasury bonds is high, the price of the bonds goes up and the yield goes down, indicating that investors are willing to accept lower returns on their investments because they perceive the economy to be weak or uncertain. Conversely, when demand for Treasury bonds is low, the price of the bonds goes down and the yield goes up, indicating that investors are demanding higher returns on their investments because they perceive the economy to be strong and stable.

In other words, Treasury yields reflect the overall confidence that investors have in the economy. When investors are confident that the economy is doing well, they are willing to invest in riskier assets, such as stocks, which can offer higher returns than bonds. This leads to a decrease in demand for Treasury bonds, which results in higher yields. Conversely, when investors are uncertain about the economy or expect a downturn, they tend to invest in safer assets, such as Treasury bonds, which leads to an increase in demand and lower yields.

However, it's worth noting that Treasury yields are just one of many indicators that investors use to assess the economy, and they can be influenced by factors other than investor sentiment, such as changes in monetary policy or inflation expectations. Therefore, while Treasury yields can provide valuable information about investor sentiment, they should be used in conjunction with other economic indicators for a more complete picture of the economy.

[Anonymous No.54715323]

>>54715150
thanks chatgpt

[Anonymous No.54715347]

>DURR HURR MUH BOND MARKET
what is yield curve control

[Anonymous No.54715452]

>>54690263
There is a difference between dollars existing as debt logged as an "asset" and dollars existing as liquidity. There is a scramble for dollars as liquidity, especially for financial entities holding too much of the former type. The M2 money supply (available "cash") has also been receding in the US.

It's like saying there's too much freshwater, when most of it frozen or underground. Can't drink it if you can't get to it.

[Anonymous No.54715790]

>>54715347
The Treasury department can insist that rates are 0%, even across the entire yield curve. But that doesn’t force investors to buy, so the Fed can end up holding the entire bag. What happens then is left as an exercise for the reader.

[Anonymous No.54715809]

bitcoin gongo up? or gongo down?

[Anonymous No.54715941]

>>54707273
Kek, I hope you make it anon.