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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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54218521 No.54218521 [Reply] [Original]

Every market analyst's consensus right now is that all systemic crisis have been averted.

.......
It was the same in 2008 when the same shit happened. Literally right up until the end of september they were all saying "everything is fine! Everything is fine! We're long on everything!" And then boom the markets flash crashed on day toward the end of the month. Sept 29th I think it was.

It was the exact same scenario. High rates, then the rates got cut due to instability, which led to bailouts early on. People forget the bailouts started happening at the beginning of 2008. In March was the biggest one. Lehman got bailed out in March of 2008 before collapsing again.

Now all of that happened in a low rate environment, because the fed had actually dropped the rates down to nothing like a year before.

NOW in this situation we have all of this financial instability and bailouts with the rates still high. BUT now inflation is high too so the fed is likely planning on HIKING rates even further. Market consensus right now is still that there will be a 25BPS hike coming on wednesday

So WTF because we're objectively in a MUCH worse situation than 2008.
And in this case the fed is printing money to pay for all of these bailouts, which leads to more inflation, which leads to needing higher rates. It's a spiral like a wage-price spiral, but it's an inflation-printing spiral otherwise known as one of the major causes and characteristics of hyperinflation

>> No.54218541

The markets actually had a big green day literally the day right before the crash IIRC. I was in college at the time and studying economics and I didn't understand what was going on back then as well as I do now for sure. But I def remember everyone saying everything was fine, and seeming to genuinely believe it, right up until the very end.

Keep in mind almost all investors have an irrationally bullish streak to them, which is why so much of the market's value genuinely is all based on ridiculous speculations that don't have any rational mathematical justification to them in terms of revenue or potential for growth in any of these companies we're trading equities in

>> No.54218634
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54218634

What should we do anon

>> No.54218678

>>54218541
>Keep in mind almost all investors have an irrationally bullish streak to them, which is why so much of the market's value genuinely is all based on ridiculous speculations that don't have any rational mathematical justification to them in terms of revenue or potential for growth in any of these companies we're trading equities in

I realized this with myself about two years into investing, that basically I was just investing into stories and not numbers. I switched to investing in a methodical way, based on ROIC and trying to estimate SAM, competition risks, and execution risk, and then comparing the opportunity costs of every stock on my watchlist as regards ROIC potential.

I wonder how many investors actually have a reasoned out method, instead of just throwing money at whatever. I think Wall Street analysts always just look two years ahead. If it's not too many, you should expect stocks to be mispriced all the time.

>> No.54218697

>>54218521
>Sept 29th I think it was.
Isn't there some Jewish holiday that crashes happen regularly on?

>> No.54218699

>>54218541
By the way, I also found a lack of rigorous logic noticeable in the very rapid correction that followed after the Fed started its hiking cycle, which had been entirely predictable, yet the market seemingly did not anticipate it at all. Another example is how Tesla collapsed, the moment its anticipated growth QoQ slowed down just a bit.

>> No.54218701

>>54218678
Yeah I mean when it comes to stuff like "price to book ratio". That shit is not real in any genuine, practical, applicable sense, lol. It would be real in a sane market environment, but our markets are totally insane

>> No.54218710

>>54218697
No bud it had nothing to do with jews. For god's sake, please don't start that fucking stupidity

>> No.54218724

>>54218710
Gas this anon

>> No.54218726

>>54218541
A good lesson on human nature. This is just how our species is. Remember Ukrainians literally claiming that the Russian invasion was just fear mongering... as tanks were rolling over their borders. Laughable.

>> No.54218729

Yep, everything will happen exactly the same as 2008. Thanks for predicting the future OP, I'm not sure why no one else thought of this

>> No.54218738
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54218738

>>54218521
All the leftist fitbit techie faggots lost their jobs. It was glorious, fucking hate you so much. Female loan officers, cunt hiring firm skims. Fucking die

>> No.54218750

>>54218710
jew spotted

>> No.54218754

>>54218701
Well if you'd bought a stock like Autozone in '00, you'd have made 10000% returns based purely on their huge ROIC and 90% stock buybacks over time. Their p/e is 20 now, so it's not even valued ridiculously. Not saying it's a buy NOW but even in the last two decades, excellent fundamentals will still drag a stock up.
But yes generally the stock valuations were retarded in the last two years, I think also because there was basically no risk free rate

>> No.54218757

>>54218729
To be clear, I'm not actually predicting it will go the same as 2008. I predicted it will go worse because of how inflation and higher rates figures in to our present situation

>> No.54218768

>>54218521
>Oh no this is terrible we need a great reset of some kind - oh what's this? The collective globalist oligarchs of the world have been developing such a thing for the last 300 years? Gimme gimme gimme!!!

>> No.54218798

>>54218521
yeah I aint buying shit. Its all going to hell halfway through this year guaranteed.

>> No.54218807

>>54218798
I bought bitcoin a few days ago but I don't know what I'm gonna do with it going forward now though

>> No.54218808

>>54218634
Same thing we always do: Let shit break and blame the political party not in charge.

>> No.54218824

>>54218807
>ID: fBI
Yeah sure. You "bought" your BTC

>> No.54218843

>>54218710
>the financial crash had NOTHING to do with the hostile alien tribe that dominates the financial sector

>> No.54219038
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54219038

>>54218710
Good job discrediting yourself in 1 post you retarded rat , now we know who you are and where you stand.
>>54218697
Yes it's called shemitah and it's effect extends up to a year since it's beginning.

>> No.54219563

>>54218710
No u.

>> No.54219583
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54219583

>>54218521
SOCIETAL COLLAPSE INCOMING!!!

TAKE ALL YOUR MONEY OUT OF BANKS!!

MAX OUT YOUR CREDIT CARDS.

BUY SPAM AND DRY RICE!!!!

BUY EVERYTHING PHYSICAL YOU CAN!!!

USA SOCIETY IS COLLAPSING!!!

>> No.54219586

>>54218726
They’re still talking about how they’re gonna retake crimea. Ukrainians deserve their namesake of borderlands.

>> No.54219598

>>54218678
Throwing money at whatever is what you do when you don’t understand, and everyone does it at first. Most keep doing it after they get lucky breaks.

>> No.54220460

>>54218807
Buy altcoins bro

>> No.54220486
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54220486

the fact they're paying people to gaslight people on a random basketweaving forum should tell you everything you need to know

>> No.54220666

>>54218521
Yeah, no shit. Systemic risk has only increased. There has been very little actual unwinding of leverage and risk.

>> No.54220685

>>54218521
It's not happening bobo. Cope, seeth and project harder you tranny.

>> No.54220707

>>54218710
who invented fractional reserve banking
who invented central banking

>> No.54220748
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54220748

>>54218521
>>54218710
whats ur endgame u two faced snake?

>> No.54220882

>>54220707
to be fair to him, it's not like it's JUST jews who engage in this shit, they're just disproportionately responsible

>> No.54220927

>>54220882
sure
but OP can't even ignore it, he had to talk about it since his programming kicked in

>> No.54220943

>>54218710
kys kike

>> No.54221539
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54221539

>>54220460
Altcoins are a better investments, so I'm grabbing them while the price is low and investing for the future. I want to accumulate more Reef, Atom, Magic Yearn, Hbar, and other reliable coins. Soon, keep digging anon!