natgas

[Anonymous No.53590157]

Okay guys, please bear with me for a moment.

NATGAS

Looking at the current dip, dip, dip in price, I'm *thinking* the following:

- current entry around 2.4 or lower
- contract value $30,000 per base point
- with a 1:10 leverage, cost to hold long position in my broker is displayed at $18 per day, or around 9.2% interest per annum
- that translates to $6,600 to hold the contract for a full year
- let's say holding until November (10 months) costs $5,500, so the break-even price in November is 2.4 entry + 5,500/30,000 = ~2.58

Now, given that the past year was a bit special (instability in Europe, politics, gas shortage, inflation, ..), the price during past year was also a bit special. But looking back at 2021, 2020, 2019 and adjusting the older years for inflation, it seems that there is a high possibility that the price, at some point before next winter, will rise by a solid few points. Hitting a price of at least 5.5 - 6 during this year seems very likely to me. On the other hand, for the break-even, the required increase in price is only 0.18 which is about the range that happens during simple daily swings.

Am I missing something? Not saying I'm gonna do this, for me money is a bit tight to be thrown at such plays, but is there some angle that I'm not seeing? This assymetric risk just looks too good to be true, no?

NFA

[Anonymous No.53590908]

um, just no