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2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance

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53078774 No.53078774 [Reply] [Original]

How bad is the recession going to be when it hits in 2023? Will it be mild like 2008 when only some were affected or are we all gonna lose big this time?

>> No.53078813

>>53078774
Are you shitposting and you actually understand the concept of US monetary policy today, or do you actually want answers?

>> No.53078821

Actually want answers

>> No.53078824

>>53078774
It's a planned recession, so they will throttle it.

They're just doing it to control inflation. Most people won't notice.

If you lose your job, you'll think its the worst recession on the planet but in all the 'recessions' I've been through I've never noticed unless I've tuned in to the news and heard the scary R word.

>> No.53078837

>>53078774
Look at 2001 on the nasdaq. We are in 2001 2.0

>> No.53078848

>>53078774
If the already increasing costs of shit like food, fuel and housing is anything to do by, it's going to be rough. Fuel prices in my country are double what they were in 2018 and during COVID it was 3x what it was in 2018.

>> No.53078850

>>53078774
There won't be a recession in 2023. The economy is still super strong and inflation is basically back at 2% if you annualize the MoM value.

>> No.53078880

>>53078774
It’s already going DYOR it’s always a good percentage over by the time they officially announce it. Only time where it was less than half over were longer (2+years) and that was the Great Depression. Don’t take my word for it the info is out there.

>> No.53079016

>>53078813
I want answers. Everything is looking like a soft landing so far. At the same time some indicators show shit getting bad quick. Consumers are running out of savings and credit is exploding for example. Corporations aren't able to get cheap debt anymore either. There are stocks like tesla, amazon, ect. that are way down from ath. Housing market is drozen. There are still empty shelves of random products occurring. All sorts of weird anomolies and occurrences are occuring.

>> No.53079036

>>53079016
>drozen
*frozen

>> No.53079053

>>53078774
Thinking based on what happened before. Even if inflation somehow gets under control next year, central banks will have to keep interest rates at current levels for years to come as a matter of policy before they can think of bringing them down. Even at the current rates, they’re still low rates.
There will be increasing foreclosures in real estate in Europe because they’re more dependent on rates. There will be high rates of foreclosures/bankruptcies in US comercial property mortgages. High rates of interest coupled with inflation will mean less demand for everyday products which automatically triggers a recession. Which ought to increase unemployment and we could be in a recession spiral from here on till things change.
Depending on how you fare during this, you may notice nothing or you may lose everyone and never recover the level of income you have now.
There will be a lot of banks failing and a lot of businesses going under.
But I know nothing of macroeconomics, I’m just going by past history of the last 25 years.

>> No.53079093

When the doom posting begins it’s time to buy. Coming election means a lot, there’s your hint

>> No.53079152

>>53079093
Doom posting has been going on for several months already. Its been drowned out by shilling lately. Nothing indicates the bottom is even close to in.
I have a theory they want the message to be out that things are going down. Its part of their soft landing plan. If the masses are expecting things to be bad it won't come as a surprise when they finally are.

>> No.53079469

>>53079053
this will be different, it's called >the great reset. how badly you're impacted depends on your current status, country and willingness to take their life raft (deflationary digital currency). if you play along it'll be a 2008, if you resist then enjoy your 1929 depression. the illusion of choice means it was your fault either way.

>> No.53079578
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53079578

>>53079469
yeah this is boomer's fault

>> No.53079609

>>53079578
?

>> No.53079614

>>53079016
We're going to print money, and we're going to use the threat of endless creation of money and credit to prevent yields from rising, the problem is that we don't know what we don't know, and there is stuff breaking that we can't see, making our task more difficult because the entire point of having credibility (even if it's notoriety for doing the wrong thing) is that the threat of doing is sometimes enough to get the job done, but that won't be the case because of the interest payments on debt that are skyrocketing.
We will continue to print money. Try your best to own quality stuff that you or others will definitely need in the future, today.
I want to re-iterate this point with some evidence; Every single time a government or system has reached this point it chooses to devalue the currency in order to avoid default.
The interest rate is still negative, though it is more expensive than 12 months ago, and I suspect (as does every bond market in the world now) that the nominal rates will stay low until the end of this rate hike 'cycle'. I do not believe this will be a 'cycle' that will end and give us another 15 years of blind buying and number going up while the soup stays $1. I do not believe they will be able to justify going back to the zero lower bound if inflation is not meaningfully lower. I believe that while interest rates are having an even GREATER impact on us than in the Paul Volcker era because of debt, it is precisely because of that debt we will be unable to actually kill inflation. In other words, we are going to have big problems because of the high debt w/ high payments BEFORE we are able to kill the inflation.
We're going to start having really different conversations now. We're not all winning anymore, if that makes sense.

>> No.53079635

>>53079578
I don't get the image irony

>> No.53079657

There will be no recession. Inflation will range 3-5% and the fed will say 4% inflation is fine for a good economy. Rates will be around 4% too. Stocks, PMs, and crypto will moon. Bonds and any other fixed income will be absolutely cucked. After the fed pivot there will be a massive concentration and transfer of wealth from the weak handed and riks adverse to the strong hands.

>> No.53079684

>>53079657
There may be other variables at play than just US policy, there are other economies and governments that will react dynamically to what USA does.

>> No.53079698

>>53078774

rare jumper photo

>> No.53079712

>>53078837
Lol you need to go back about 70 years and then extrapolate even further. That’s where we are headed.

>> No.53079730

>>53079712
Not to be too dramatic but we're probably past the point of no return in terms of US National Debt, you need to go back a little ways longer than 70 years to see an empire like USA do what it is about to do.

>> No.53079796

>>53079614
The end of your response was a little weak. Let me fix it.

Eventually the world will conspire against the US for its abysmal monetary policy while also being responsible for the fiscal policy of the world. The country with the world reserve currency is over 100T in debt. And everyone just ignores it. Well they’re not ignoring it anymore. Shits about to get bad in a major way when the country goes bankrupt. If you want to see what that’s like look at what’s happening in Sri Lanka. No one has a job and no one can buy anything because their currency is worthless.

It’s going to be mad max. Imagine Baltimore, Philadelphia, Chicago, et al when the monthly food stamp gib doesn’t cover a week’s worth of food. Multiply that by all the major metros and a possible assault from China and/or Russia via Mexico and Canada. All the while the gas to power our machinery costs $80/gal (or more). I could go on. Anyway, I hope I’m wrong.

>> No.53079808

>>53079730
Touché.

>> No.53079898
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53079898

>>53079016
The post 19th century fiat system collapsed in 1997 with the asia crisis, the last time we could've went on a hard money standard and had a relatively soft landing was 2000 but the dotcom bubble prevented that and the blownup tech companies that came from it don't create actual innovation unlike pre microsoft IBM and xerox. We will not see an innovation to save us from recession like the SR71 and there is no more room for financial fraud to kick the can down the road. On a larger timeframe genetics are collapsing from the unharsh environmental conditions created after the late 17th century so this is just another leg down started after aristocrat intervention in seasonal starvation cycles in middle ages europe. Ideally the soft landing where we bottom out is when the global economy resembles roughly 800-1000 AD prior to humanist movements and after post rome collapse. Expect electricity to become more scarce over time.

>> No.53079900
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53079900

There will be no recession. Everything is fine. Definitely don't buy silver. Inflation is transitory.

>> No.53079935

>>53079796
The USA has the most gold reserves, but the worst economy (arguably) of any major gold reserve nation. Does it just run out of gold in a decade or two because it runs through it all mindlessly consuming? Does the tributary economics continue? idk but mad max might take a little while longer given the gold reserves. The wealth inequality might give us a little revolution or some kind of civil war.
100%
These guys are probably going to push socialism harder. A minority of people understand what is happening and know that it is precisely BECAUSE of socialism that we're inflating and things are so fucked up.

>> No.53079953

>>53079614
It does make sense. It fills in considerably what is happening.

>> No.53079961

>>53079796
>The end of your response was a little rational. Let me interject my schizo conspiracy theories and apocalyptic ramblings
Seems like you are lost. >>>/pol/ is down the hall to the left

>> No.53079976

>>53079657
>The Fed will cave
>Stocks, PMs, and crypto will moon.
This is just a pipe dream. Nothing suggests this as a possibility.

>> No.53079990

>>53079961
Politics is the penis and financial policy is the vagina. They can’t be parted. Every sane businessman follows politics.

>> No.53080134

>>53079976
cope more retard

>> No.53080247

Fucking nothing will happen. We don't have a Lehman this time.

>> No.53080315

Aren't we already in a fucking recession? Did OP really buy into the gaslighting by the US government who said ACKSHULLY even though we've met the textbook definition of a recession that has been accepted for decades it's ACKSHULLY not a recession because of some made up bullshit.

>> No.53080524

>>53080315
>this matters
No. It doesn't matter the exact time the defintion says it started. Its the direction the economy is going. Define it starting several months ago, today, or in a few months. It doesn't matter its happening.

>> No.53080532

>>53078774
I hope it's so bad that I can buy a house for 50k

>> No.53080533

>>53080134
Take your meds schizo.

>> No.53080636

>>53078774
11S never happened. The twin towers never existed and all the media we saw from the "attack" was computer generated.

>> No.53080658

>>53078774
The worst one imaginable.

>> No.53080721

>>53078774
the best thing to do is going all liquid and expect to sell the fall of bitcoin and some of S&P100

>> No.53080724

>>53078774
Don't really give a shit about the recession desu. I have a stable and well paying job that is irreplicable.

>> No.53082118

>>53080524
The point is it's complete psychological manipulation to suggest the recession is going "to hit" in 2023 when we're already in it. It's just the government and the media deciding when to fuck with people's emotions. Yes, it's indefensible for people to be this fucking stupid but we can see the influence spread via the OP making this very thread.

>> No.53082137

We're either going into a recession and crash like 2001 or it's all a 3d chess scam to make retards sell before the SPX pump. These people(powel and WH speakers) said all 2022 that we're not in a recession and now they panic when it's over.. kek so scripted

>> No.53082148

>>53079898
based multi-century thinker

>> No.53082168

>>53080724
what do you do?

>> No.53082452

Listen here folks! The recession is fake news. Russian disinformation. This is the greatest and fastest economic recovery of all time and it is the direct result of Biden working tirelessly to stop Putin's price hikes and inflation and racism and transphobia and white supremacy too. Unlike that racist idiot Trump who golfed all day and destroyed the economy, Biden is working around the clock to lead this great country to better days. Just imagine how bad things would be with that orange racist bigot were still in office. The NASDAQ would be down over 90% and we would all be speaking Chinese or Russian. The Biden Boom is here and the economy is stronger than ever before because we are embracing diversity as our strength. Did I mention Biden created a record 20+ million American jobs? Or that he just passed another 1.7 trillion dollar spending bill? Best President ever! I'm voting for him again twice in 2024 as are my wife and her black boyfriend and our transon too. That's 400 votes for Biden from us.

>> No.53082583

>>53082452
Go back to /pol/ dude

>> No.53082639

>>53082583
fuck off, new faggot- go back to plebbit.