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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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52862820 No.52862820 [Reply] [Original]

How are we feeling about real estate at the moment?

Finally a decent place has come up near me. It's $400K and I'd do $100K down which puts my all in payment around $2500/month. It's super nerve racking to do it, but I think I'm going to pull the trigger on this one.

>Will things keep going down?

IMO, we will bottom out sometime in Q2/Q3 of next year before fed cuts rates again. At that point you can get properties for what, 25-35% cheaper but rates will be 3-5 points higher so the monthly payment ends up being more. Does /biz/ think it is worth waiting, assuming my time horizon is 7-10 years of being in this place?

>Rental alternatives

For me, rent on a 2/2 would be $2500. In this case I'm getting a 3/2 house with a garage and backyard for the same monthly cost (plus maintenance, but it will be minimal). I'm coming out of pocket $100K sure, but realistically it's better, right? Tell me where I'm wrong (note: 2500 is all inclusive of tax/ins/hoa/etc).

>Personal income / etc

My income is stable and I would still have around $300K in other assets on the sideline after making the $100K down payment. This makes me feel /cozy/ knowing I likely won't be able to fuck up my finances so bad that I would not be able to make my mortgage payments. I also make ~$200k/y so the $2500 cost is pretty low.

>Anyway, what's /biz/ thinking about RE and buying a primary residence right now?

>> No.52863221

...anons pls

>> No.52863386

can't wait to buy any residence I want q1 24 for 50% off today's valuation

>> No.52863408

>>52862820
if you expect home prices to come down 25-35%, why wouldn't you wait to buy then?
Even if your monthly interest is higher, you will pay less in the long run.

My personal view:
>demographics is slowing, therefore you should rent.
I have a friend who is 150 iq, retired, and says that real estate is a scam. Over saturated market. He has no interest in owning any real estate whatsoever.

I think the future will be that of renters/landlords, moving away from home ownership.

Homes will no longer be seen as an investment, but rather a cash flow investment that maintains it's price relatively stable.

I expect home prices to stagnate over the next 10-20 years, similar to Japan, mainly due to to demographic slowdown.
Also, I believe cities will 'disperse', as living becomes better in rural/suburban areas due to the advancement of technology. Starlink is already disrupting and repricing real estate, as it opens up a lot of rural areas for living.

TLDR- Don't invest in real estate, rent. Demographics are slowing.

>> No.52863442

>>52862820
I bought q3 of 2021. I graduated in 2020 so already ahead of the pack quite a bit.

I bought a condo in a 3-unit building in a large city right as lockdowns were starting to really get to people and prices in the city were falling like mad, so I got an excellent deal.

2bd/1ba, 905 sqft, 165/mo HOA, only downside is property taxes here are the second highest in the country. Aside from that, pretty great starter home for what I need. In a very walkable area where I can take the train to work and walk to everything else I need, so I sold my car at the peak and since I don't really need one right now, I'll just buy another beater when I have to. I also rent the other bedroom to one of my good friends, but when my girlfriend's lease is up she's planning on moving in.

I'm currently 25 and plan to stay in this place until I'm mid-30s. I think Im set up pretty well right now.

>> No.52863443

>>52862820
you stupid faggot, are you really asking if buying a 400k property on a 200k salary is a good idea? There's clearly zero risk involved so if you want to own your place go for it, but if there is even a 10% fall in values and you can be close to 100% cash in a years time why the fuck wouldn't you wait.

>> No.52863502

>>52863442
Forgot to mention the actual price of the unit. 265k. In this city in particular prices of the exact same unit can vary from building to building so it's really up in the air if this was a good deal long term. What matters is I can afford the mortgage and my roommate is helping me pay it down quicker than I'd initially thought.

This city is exceptionally undervalued right now.

>> No.52863542

>>52862820
if you're looking at $400k homes on a $200k/year gross income, it really doesn't matter. just pull the trigger. if you were a $100k/year poorfag like me then it would be a much different story. i'm sitting on the sidelines for another year or two.

>> No.52863593
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52863593

>>52863408
what demographic shift are you talking about

>> No.52863601

I got my 3400 sqft for 120K in 2015. I locked in at 3% last year.

Good luck!

>> No.52863620

>>52863593
i think he's talking about year on year population growth, which is allegedly slowing down if you look at US population estimates. i doubt this is true because 1) illegal brown niggermonkey spics aren't realistically counted on the census despite the census bureau claiming otherwise and 2) politicians can always bus is more low IQ brown niggermonkey spics.

>> No.52863624

>>52863408
>demographics is slowing
The world population just hit 8 billion, where do you think these people are looking to move to? Laos?

>> No.52863630

>>52863442
>>52863502
Nice sounds comfy, pretty inexpensive for a city, although 265 for a condo where I am would be a lot. Glad it's working out. Any regrets?

>>52863443
I'm not sure what you mean? 400 would be 360k with a 10% drop. What do the 100% cash in a years time mean? Because of my savings? I have more now but rates are still decently low (6%) so I figured the financing would make more sense and leave dry powder to buy assets during the dip.

>>52863542
Why do you think that would make such a big difference? 2x vs 4x multiple still seems pretty low risk. Assume I made 100k instead of 200k, you think it would be a bad idea to go for it now?

Also, are you factoring in higher rates? That's part of why i want to pull the trigger now.

>> No.52863639

>>52863601
>i got mine by coincidentally being in the right place at the right time
shut up nigger no one cares

>> No.52863669
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52863669

>>52862820
Can we just have a real estate general at this point

>> No.52863683

>>52863630
>Why do you think that would make such a big difference? 2x vs 4x multiple still seems pretty low risk. Assume I made 100k instead of 200k, you think it would be a bad idea to go for it now?

my $100k gross is $65k after all taxes and deductions. if i made $200k gross that would be $125k after all taxes and deductions. $2.5k/mo mortgage is $30k a year. that's 45% of my take home at $100k/year, or only 24% of your take home at $200k/year. that's a much, much bigger risk.

>> No.52863724

>>52863639

Apparently you do. There's always an affordable place for you in the midwest where you belong.

>> No.52863740

>>52863683
Got it that makes sense to me.

>>52863601
I envy you greatly.

>> No.52863809

>>52863630
>although 265 for a condo where I am would be a lot. any regrets?
Not as of yet. Another unit in my building recently sold for 315 but it's slightly larger and on the first floor so that probably makes a difference.

>265 for a condo where I am would be a lot?
Where is that if you don't mind me asking. For reference, my property is in a dense, fairly well-off neighborhood about 5 miles from downtown in chicago

>> No.52863880

>>52863809
I'm in Florida. I guess $265 is pretty average for a nice place and not a lot, but a 2/2 condo can be had for closer to 200 unless you're right on the beach

>> No.52863946

>>52863724
>midwest
no one cares

>> No.52864046

>>52863408
>TLDR- Don't invest in real estate, rent. Demographics are slowing.
They will keep using diversity to force you out of your neighbourhoods and into newly built suburbs and a few gentrifying inner cities

>> No.52864915

>>52863669
Um who is this?

>> No.52864935

>>52864046
don't know what this means.

Move into a community that is aligned with your values and don't sell?

>> No.52864965

>>52864915
>who is this average/10
stop being thirsty

>> No.52865059

>>52864915
I know who it is but I have it bookmarked on my pc. I will post her insta when I get back home

>> No.52865128

>>52862820
i have a $1900 1br apartment in a good part of manhattan and the rent can only be raised 1% per year by law so i'm probably just going to hang onto this for now since i can't get anything decent in a place i'd want to live for a comparable monthly payment at the moment.

>> No.52865158
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52865158

Q2 will be a good time to buy
>after the usual Q1 slow season
>baggies getting anxious
But the best deals will be Q22024-Q32025
>recession
>baggies roping
>wagies coping
>wfh being attacked by dems in some reverso del uno
Fed rates are pic related as well. https://youtu.be/yZNtYmdZ-4c

>> No.52865176

>>52863639
I paid cash in 2013, direct your ire towards me if you must

>> No.52865213

>>52862820
upto you, can you afford to wait 6 months or not?

if you've been waiting already and sick of it, just bite the bullet.. but if you're just started looking and not itching then wait some more

>> No.52865550

>>52864915
>>52865059
@duongmydienn

>> No.52866013

>>52863880
Really. Where in Florida? I know the tampa market very well and a nice condo at that price is a steal. Especially for a 2 bed

>> No.52866079

>>52865213
I could wait 6 months. It's no big deal and I'm living rent free at the moment. I could be saving $15K/mo if I wait which is that much more on the down payment. I've been looking a while and itching to jump but I would be giving up my current comfy rent-free lifestyle where I'm saving big $

>> No.52866605

>>52866013
is there any chance of the south florida market easing back into reality or am i fucked

>> No.52866743

>>52866605
I think south FL will just continue to pump imho. Anything sub 500k is still getting scooped up quick af

>> No.52866763

>>52866743
figured...i want to cry