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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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51484381 No.51484381 [Reply] [Original]

>> No.51484527

>>51484381
I doubt it, I think unemployment was up 0.2%, and Inflation didn't meet the 8.1% expected but it still fell, plus accelerated QT only started this month. I think he'll stick with 75bps hikes and see what the child porn index says next time, then move to 100 bps if it isn't heading in the right direction fast enough.

>> No.51484570

more like 200 bps hike, we cannot repeat Volcker's mistake. With this hike he will renounce the soft landing policy and announce the target range of double digit rate

>> No.51484572

I wish, but he won't. They're just prolonging this awful bear market.

>> No.51484633

He should do a 2,000 BPS hike. Call it terra luna bonds.

>> No.51484686

>>51484570
he doesn't have the balls to Volcker, just wants to talk big to keep the confidence. they'll raise 75 again like the market is expecting thinking it will provide the soft landing they talk about, however they started too late for that. If they continue only raising to market expectations we'll see a repeat of the 1970-1980s sideways action.

If he was serious, rates would be close to if not equal to core inflation by now. Soft landing more like a sloppy stagnant meltdown.

>> No.51484694

>>51484570
National Debt Interest is going to fucking destroy the country if they go anywhere above like 4-5%
They were financing 31 trillion at an average 1.53%, but the age of the debt is like 4 years now.
It would be bigger than the military and social security fucking combined if they went that high man.

>> No.51484793

>>51484381
he'll hint at 100 bps and then do 75 bps at the last minute.

>> No.51484842

we are getting awful close to the point where countries in the global south will start defaulting on their sovereign debt, if i had to guess the IMF has already been doing some discreet/soft bailouts behind the scenes to prevent systemic contagion

>> No.51484858

>>51484793
And the entire market will go fucking nuts again, because somehow constant small rate hikes that don't fix anything are a cause to celebrate and jam more money into the market.

>> No.51484927
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51484927

>>51484686
From 1970 to 1980 SPX beat inflation (barley, but beat the alternative of loosing half your purchasing power). Inflation was 112% S&P returned 130%.
https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/1970?endYear=1980&amount=100
https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/stocks/s-p-500/1970?amount=100&endYear=1980
History doesn't repeat itself, but sometimes it rhymes.

>> No.51484998

>>51484927
I'd love to think they won't make the same mistake of lowering rates too early, but it isn't off the table. if we do see an early pivot my alarms will be going off big-time to start trading the 18 month swings or be left with nothing to show for a decade in the market.

>> No.51485093

>>51484686
>If he was serious, rates would be close to if not equal to core inflation by now
that would cause a crash which they don't want
the .75 rate hike will bleed out the middle class, which they do want

>> No.51485113

>>51484527
>accelerated QT only started this month
Sauce

>> No.51485115

500bps and fuck the mumus

>> No.51485142
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51485142

>>51485093
>bleed out
In what way? Higher interest debt? Mortgages?

>> No.51485146

>>51485113
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-29/qt-to-hit-full-stride-with-fed-shrinking-9-trillion-portfolio?leadSource=uverify%20wall

They doubled QT per month in September 2022. To over $90B per month.

>> No.51485157

>>51485093
they should want to achieve their goals as a central bank, not look like a hero. Powell wants to preserve an image of the fed Volcker left, but it has made him diddly and prancy rather than firm. A hard recession is unavoidable with the govt still talking about further spending. Bite the bullet. Leave a firm legacy by facing tough times head on. He has a role to fill and his objectives are very clear. He should stop wasting time.

>> No.51485171

>>51485146
I don’t give a shit if they said they will do it. Is it reflected on the balance sheet chart?

>> No.51485174
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51485174

>>51484570
This.
Even 250 bps is on the table.
Inflation turns to deflation overnight.

>> No.51485199
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51485199

>>51484381
GOD I HOPE SO

>> No.51485258

>>51484633
kek

>> No.51485353

I think so. Inflation must come down to 2%.

>> No.51485367

>>51484381
the true chad move would be a 50 bps point to weaken the dollar and help europe to prepare for winter by artificially giving strength to the euro.

>> No.51485477

75bps is pretty much guaranteed. Then we'll have another bounce until the next inflation figure comes in hot again