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2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance


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30218839 No.30218839 [Reply] [Original]

.

>> No.30219323

>>30218839
:(

>> No.30219822
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30219822

>>30218839
Please realize this are billions

>> No.30219946

>>30219323
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

>> No.30220106
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30220106

STOP IT STOP IT MAKE IT STOP

>> No.30220148
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30220148

>>30218839
Are we going to be financially ruined or is it just a bad week?

>> No.30220165
File: 19 KB, 400x400, 1614697918003.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30220165

What does it mean

>> No.30220229

Ruh roh. So here's where the real gamble begins. Do you bet that the gov't will pull some major fuck magic to save the USD or is this it, is this the time to run?

>> No.30220258

1,6% WAITING ROOM
WE ARE MOONING

>> No.30220306 [DELETED] 
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30220306

>>30218839
This treasury bond shit is a meme and you're a retard if you panic sell because of it. get fucked, faggots & niggers. Fuck kikes. Heil Hitler.

>> No.30220313

>>30220165
Double rainbow all across the sky!

>> No.30220314

ELI a europoor what this means?

>> No.30220318

>>30218839
Can someone explain to a dumb cunt what this means for stocks, PM, and crypto?

>> No.30220343
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30220343

>>30218839
This is it, huh? Just like that?

>> No.30220351

>>30218839

Can someone explain why a 1.5% yield, which doesn’t even keep up with inflation, would cause a stock sell off?

>> No.30220373
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30220373

>>30220258
Based.

>> No.30220388

>>30220306
is that viggo mortensen

>> No.30220442

>>30218839
when hyperinflation comes to america, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross

>> No.30220450
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30220450

brainlet here, what does this mean?

>> No.30220458

>>30220351
boomer

>> No.30220474

precious metal niggers where do i buy gold and silver

>> No.30220549

>>30220450
haha are u a monke?

>> No.30220611

>>30220450
people think its inflation, its not

>> No.30220644

>>30218839
What does this mean exactly?

>> No.30220696

>>30220388
No, it's an SS officer flicking a cigarette at a dead kike.

>> No.30220814

>>30220696
Nice fanfic bro

>> No.30220904

>>30220318
It means billions are flowing from the stock market to hold dollars for a pathetic interest rate over 10 years but what most don't understand is that these bonds will be eligible for future currencies (may the dollar fall)

>> No.30221108

>>30220644
USA is kill. Convert all your usd to rmb asap

>> No.30221186

What does this MEAN though as a non-American shitcoin trader?

>> No.30221193

>>30221108
What's the rmb stablecoin?

>> No.30221231

>>30220611
Why? Arent food and metals and oil goes up? Economy literally lost year in production and printed gorillion monies.

>> No.30221285

>>30220904
With all the QE going on rn aren't they better off staying in the stock market? I get my assumption is retarded I just don't understand why

>> No.30221405
File: 3.62 MB, 3884x7735, 1611158496325.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30221405

>>30220644
America got too woke. Big investors that want to park billions worth in a safe low yield for 10 years don't see America as being a strong nation in 10 years to sum it up. They don't want to buy the FED debt thinking they will lose. Higher percentage mean the fed is having a hard time selling these to sum it up.

>> No.30221409

>>30221285
It's the everything bubble, there's no safe place

>> No.30221425

bond yields still lower than targeted inflation
bond yields still way lower than anticipated inflation

banks are stupid

>> No.30221471

>>30221285
Imagine you have 10 billions and you can have a 100% risk free bet for 1.5% over 10 years would you rather split these billions around stocks you are not 100% sure about or sit this shitstorm out with a free 1.5%

>> No.30221546

>>30220814
It's from a movie or a show. The dude meets a girl while he's out of uniform and they hit it off, have a great night. At some point she tells him she's a Jew and the camera immediately cuts to her dead hanging from a rope while the dude flicks a cigarette and is revealed to be SS.

Stop sucking so much cock, faggot. You're gonna burn in hell for it.

>> No.30221551

>>30219822
fed prints trillions now. you wont impress anyone with billions

>> No.30221558

>>30221231
metals are down now or at least gold and silver is but they mostly rose because everything else did, there was so much money in the hands of people that were well off already that they just pumped every asset imagineable, common goods have seen no meaningful rise in price. There were also early fears of inflation last year but they disappeared fast and biggest hedge funds in the world been dumping 70%+ of their gold for months

>> No.30221574

>>30221425
Suuure largest smartest market is just being stupid.

>> No.30221625

>>30218839
its gonna go up to 1.75% get real nigga

>> No.30221660

>>30221558
There is always a big deflation on a currency before it converts to boomer bricks

>> No.30221728

>>30221574
>thinks the market is smart
I would say powerful not smart.

>> No.30221733

>>30221471
Isn't 1.5% still under inflation and therefore a loss?

>> No.30221750

>>30220904

That’s 1.5% a year and not for the whole ten years right

>> No.30221753
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30221753

It's fucking over bros, we are almost at 2019 levels

>> No.30221807

>>30220442
*the rainbow flag and a BLM fist

>> No.30221870

>>30221471
Considering inflation last year was 25% I'm pretty sure I'd be buying as many scarce assets as possible instead of a claim on funny money. You could literally just buy wine and luxury watches and be better off

>> No.30221913

>>30221733
yes but its a guaranteed (dependent on the USA continuing to exist) slightly below inflation return. any other kind of investment is much riskier, relatively

>> No.30221939

>>30221728
My point is that debt market smarter than stocks, derivatives or crypto with huge hordes of normies.

>> No.30221957
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30221957

Nothing is going to happen. As usual. Shiny rock schizos just slightly louder at the moment. They have been predicting doom for 80 years now.

>> No.30222090
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30222090

>>30221574
Yes.

>> No.30222098

>>30221471
>100% risk free bet
Nope.

>> No.30222264

>>30218839
yet gold and silver is still ruining my networth

>> No.30222275

>>30221870
increase in prices on financial assets is not inflation

>> No.30222392
File: 47 KB, 1168x593, m1 supply.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30222392

>>30221753
Listen yo dumb monkey, much more money was printed since then, how hord is it to understand, the rates drop in corelation to how much printing has agregated so far. More money - less they can rise,

>> No.30222452
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30222452

>>30218839
has anyone ever thought about zooming out?

>> No.30222504

>>30222264
This.

Tempted to sell all my Boomer metal and put it into crypto.

BTC is eating gold's market.

>> No.30222631

what the fuck is a bond

>> No.30222665

>>30221546
It's from The Strain, a tv show that was on FX. First season was quite good.

>> No.30222669

>>30220904
Why would these bonds be eligible for other currencies? The US government would pay out the bond holders in USD if it becomes worthless. No reason to use some currency that actually has worth

>> No.30222698

>>30222631
piece of paper you cant cash in for X amount of months/years

>> No.30222802

>>30222631
i give u 1000 bucks , you give me 100 bucks a year for 10 years and some interest on set dates

>> No.30222844

Who the fuck would tie up money for 10 years for 1.5%? There are fucking savings accounts that will give you higher

>> No.30222853

>mantradao.com this it what I got into tomorrow goes cream, looks legit.

>> No.30222922

>>30221471
Increased demand for bonds would have the opposite effect on rates anon...

>> No.30222977
File: 245 KB, 920x590, inflation.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30222977

Place your bets sirs

>I'm all-in on platinum
>Got some gold too but not so much as my plat stack

>> No.30223125
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30223125

>>30218839
Doesn't a rising interest rate mean that people are selling their Treasury bonds? Why would the rate of return go up if more people are buying them? Wouldn't that make it fall?

>> No.30223166
File: 52 KB, 1170x556, fredm1supplyeverythingiscoolguys.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30223166

>>30218839
lol just change the formula. Its all fake anyways.

>> No.30223184
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30223184

When rates are low stonks will grow
When rates are high stonks will die

>> No.30223223

test

>> No.30223297

>>30222844
Yeah but those banks might not be around in 10 years, but USA probably will (slightly sarcastic)

>> No.30223515

>>30222844
no one but banks who receive money from the fed as grants to operate under the CARES act. 0 consumer demand.

>> No.30223532
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30223532

>>30218839

>> No.30223842

>>30222844
You can buy some bonds then repo them at fed then buy some more etc. The only risk is inflation.

>> No.30223974

>>30218839
With respect to what?
I go to the store and the total is higher than before.

>> No.30224134
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30224134

>>30220258
letss gooooooooooooooo

>> No.30224323

>>30222452

Kek

>> No.30224407

>>30220904
>what most don't understand is that these bonds will be eligible for future currencies (may the dollar fall)
so what?

>> No.30224514

>>30222452
fair but now zoom out on the nasdaq as well

>> No.30224574

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iL4_lNlkiFw

>> No.30224661
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30224661

I unitonically have no idea what this means

>> No.30224915

>>30220474
Too late, all sold out.

>> No.30224934

>>30222392
You are a fucking retard lol

>> No.30225037
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30225037

>>30221870
>Considering inflation last year was 25%
Seek help

>> No.30225073

im not going to sell any stocks cuz when i do the markets go up

>> No.30225174

>>30225037
the amount of brain shit i read here is fucking insane its clogging up my brain with shit

>> No.30225223

>>30222392
Hey dumbfuck shit for brains retard, did you try reading the paragraph beneath that, or is that too difficult for you?

>Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other checkable deposits (OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal, or NOW, and automatic transfer service, or ATS, accounts at depository institutions, share draft accounts at credit unions, and demand deposits at thrift institutions.

>Beginning May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other liquid deposits, consisting of OCDs and savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts). Seasonally adjusted M1 is constructed by summing currency, demand deposits, and OCDs (before May 2020) or other liquid deposits (beginning May 2020), each seasonally adjusted separately.

>> No.30226077

could you explain me somenthing?
If more people will flow to bonds will the 1.5% increase or decrease?

>> No.30226265

>>30226077
if more people want to buy anything does the price go up or down?

>> No.30226462

>>30226077
>>30226265
1.5% isn't the price you fucking faggot
When people flow into bonds the 1.5% (return) goes down

Fuck. The amount of new on this board this year is stupid

>> No.30226576
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30226576

>>30225223
Here have all M's combined on M3, point sitll stands you mental midget

>> No.30227598
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30227598

>>30218839
HAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA
I never felt better. clean it up, Powell

>> No.30227611
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30227611

>>30226576
almost as if the global money supply is increasing you fucking retard brainlet...

>> No.30227720

>>30226077
>>30226265
low yields mean demand for bonds is high
high yields mean demand for bonds is low

>> No.30227863

>>30227611
>12 year old stats
Still, everyone and their mother debasing their currency at the sime time isn't good news.

>> No.30227884

kek, this niggers want to spaml fucking rubbish on /biz/
I don’t trust this shill
>SWG and BSC
>This is our future

>> No.30227912

>>30227863
*same

>> No.30228004

>>30227611
Because of credit creation which is bloating money supply with no physical cover in real world, you dense motherfucker. Just neck yourself and do us all a favour.

Here educate yourself and stop being a simpleton in the future:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0

>> No.30228126

>>30220351
> 1.5% guaranteed returns from treasuries.
> -99% possible return from equity markets.

Big money likes predictable, safe returns. If the treasury yields continue to rise, more and more whale investors will move into the safe returns guaranteed in treasuries

>> No.30228426

>>30220474
Ebay, best bet right now is probably old silver dimes, quarters or silver eagles are always in stock somewhere. You WILL be paying above melt to buy and below melt to sell so assume you’re 10% in the hole the instant you hold the metal.

Better than losing a majority of your life savings to inflation.

>> No.30228476

>>30220644
Bond yield is negatively correlated to bond prices.

Yield up = bond price trading lower
Yield down = bond price trading higher.

Because the bonds have a par value, trading below the par value = higher yields. (yield is the APR of your return for holding the bond as it matures).

Institutions are panic selling their treasury bonds below par value, raising the yield.

This signifies that they have lost confidence in the fed to control inflation. They are effectively saying that they think selling the bond today below par value will yield them higher return then holding it for all 10 years.

>> No.30228526

>>30220351
A) Bonds become more attractive so money goes from stocks to bonds
B) If the bond rate goes up further and for an extended period of time, eventually the fed will have to follow and raise the Funds rate (the base rate of the central bank), which in turn will increase the cost of lending - at a time when credit is at an all time high

A is bad, for stocks
B is very bad, for everyone

>> No.30228589

>>30228476
are interest rates gonna rise?

>> No.30228664

>>30228126
>Big money likes predictable, safe returns. If the treasury yields continue to rise, more and more whale investors will move into the safe returns guaranteed in treasuries


only if they believe that the dollar will go into a deflationary period.

Time value of money = money today is worth more than it is tomorrow.

The investment firms believe that selling the bonds today below par value is a better/safer return then holding for 10 years, primarily because they think the fed can not control inflation. They think money will be cheaper in the future, thus they don't want to lock up their money today.

>> No.30228752

>>30221405
I think your infographic needs some thumbtacks and red thread connecting the dots.

>> No.30228772

>>30226576
You are correct buddy. Dont bother with the midwits.

>> No.30228856
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30228856

>>30220351
Doesn't make any sense

>dude let's sell out stocks which net us a 20% on average a year to an effective negative yield

The T-Note FUD is the dumbest thing I've read all year. Makes ZERO sense.

>> No.30228937

>>30223223
Did it work?

>> No.30228969

>>30220904
>but what most don't understand is that these bonds will be eligible for future currencies (may the dollar fall)
So would be stocks and BTC. So why sell those? Seriously.

>> No.30228999

>>30228856
the film Margin Call actually happened

>> No.30229059
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30229059

>>30221471
>>30221913
Just put it into SPY. Jesus Christ, billionaires are pathetic. If SPY is too much for your risk tolerance, might as well neck yourself.

>> No.30229174

>>30229059
>just maximize your risk bro

>> No.30229191

>>30228526
>which in turn will increase the cost of lending - at a time when credit is at an all time high


If they do this, (which I believe they will eventually have to do), it will unravel the largest credit bubble ever.

We are at a time right now, where everyone is spending free money, and taking on future obligations instead of paying off current obligations.

Not only are they taking on more debt, they are using that debt to invest in risky investments.

Hedge funds and investment banks are now using 1.5x margin. (anything above 1.1x is considered high risk for them).

Individuals are not paying student loans, and instead are using money to yolo into margin'ed stocks.

Tether is over leveraging their reserves to pump Bitcoin.

Boomers are buying investment properties like crazy even though renters aren't paying rent.

>> No.30229226

>>30218839
Big fucking deal. 3 decades ago it was 10%+. Kek

>> No.30229283
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30229283

Wait, doesn't this mean that the treasury is trying to get people (especially billionaires) to send them money? Wouldn't this mean that there is less money out there, less liquidity and therefore less inflation?

T. Brainlet.

>> No.30229293

>>30228856
Your stocks cant gain those huge gains only because of low interest rate. If no one buying bonds stocks are fucked.

>> No.30229304

>>30228589
>are interest rates gonna rise?


If we experience a period of hyperinflation, the fed will have no choice but to raise rates. This is the only way to combat inflation. The problem is they will have to do this by selling treasury bonds and other assets on their balance sheet, which will only increase the yield of the bonds as the over supply will drive down bond prices.

>> No.30229447

>>30229191
fixed rate mortgage probably a fantastic idea to pick up

>> No.30229580

>>30229283
>Wait, doesn't this mean that the treasury is trying to get people (especially billionaires) to send them money? Wouldn't this mean that there is less money out there, less liquidity and therefore less inflation?

No, because the Fed doesn't control the price of the treasury bonds on open market, sellers and buyers do.

The yield is a product of sales price of the bond.

It means that people think their money today will be worth more than in 10 years, so they are selling their 10 y bonds and going into cash.

Eventually USD will react negatively as well, but at least in the short term as more people move to USD it drives up the value of USD.

This is why DXY is up today.

>> No.30229715

>>30229304
What does this mean
>>30229580
What does this mean

>> No.30229729

>>30229283
If the treasury gets the money for their debt it's just to spend it on e.g. covid relief packages, so the money still circulates.
For inflation/money supply you have to look at the central bank balance sheet, not the government budget.

>> No.30229787

>>30218839
quick, we need Tether to out-print them

>> No.30229815

>>30221807
doesn't really matter which hyperinflation is hyperinflation. the point is people will cheer for it at first.

>> No.30229829
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30229829

Okay, let's fucking unpack this, because something doesn't add up

>rising bond yields are bad for the markets
okay, why?
>because then bonds become more attractive then equities
but the rising yield means the bond value is DOWN, right?
>yes
so bonds are actually down. why?
>because investors are losing faith in the dollar
why?
>because of inflation
so the markets are going down?
>yes
but why would they when the dollar is also going down in value?
>because the bond yield is high
wouldn't the yield fall once investors pile into the bonds?
>yes
but the yield isn't going down and yet the markets are down, why?
>because the yields are up
but if the yields are up people aren't buying those bonds, right?
>yes
why?
>because of inflation
But wouldn't that be good for equities?
>no, because the bond yields are up

This is circular logic. WHAT AM I MISSING? IN VENEZUELA THE STOCK MARKET IS THOUGH THE ROOF DUE TO HYPER INFLATION.
WHY IS THIS BEARISH? AAAAAAAAAAAAAAA.

>> No.30230124

>>30229715
>>>30229304
>What does this mean
>>>30229580
>What does this mean
It means the fed has a few options:
1) hyperinflation / runaway inflation - maintains economic activity but will be hard to control, and if the economy drops further due to unknown events (like corona), they have almost no ammunition (basis points) left to get it started.

2) they initiate deflationary policies to prevent the impending hyperinflation, which will unravel a massive credit bubble that they themselves caused by giving away free money that people have overleveraged. The economy will go into recession, but at least the fed will have ammo (basis points) to jump start the economy in the future.

>> No.30230200

>>30228004
>YOU'RE A FUCKING SIMPLETON!!!
>NOW WATCH LE EBIN REDDIT VIDEO!!!
fuck off retard. US inflation is at a similar rate as the rest of the world, it's a complete nothingburger.

>> No.30230331

>>30229829
Stocks are high because they pumped with DEBT money. Companies literally borrow cheap monies to buyback or pay higher dividends. Banks making repo pyramids, small investors use leverage.
Now imagine what happens when borrow became harder and harder.

>> No.30230354
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30230354

>>30230124
They are going to choose, 1, right? RIGHT? r-right...?

>> No.30230362

>>30229829
>Okay, let's fucking unpack this, because something doesn't add up
>>rising bond yields are bad for the markets
>okay, why?
>>because then bonds become more attractive then equities
>but the rising yield means the bond value is DOWN, right?
>>yes
>so bonds are actually down. why?
>>because investors are losing faith in the dollar
>why?
>>because of inflation
>so the markets are going down?
>>yes
>but why would they when the dollar is also going down in value?
>>because the bond yield is high
>wouldn't the yield fall once investors pile into the bonds?
>>yes
>but the yield isn't going down and yet the markets are down, why?
>>because the yields are up
>but if the yields are up people aren't buying those bonds, right?
>>yes
>why?
>>because of inflation
>But wouldn't that be good for equities?
>>no, because the bond yields are up
>This is circular logic. WHAT AM I MISSING? IN VENEZUELA THE STOCK MARKET IS THOUGH THE ROOF DUE TO HYPER INFLATION.
>WHY IS THIS BEARISH? AAAAAAAAAAAAAAA.
You're not taking into consideration the difference between short term effects and long term effects.

Long term the bond market is pricing in future inflation over a 10 year period.

In the short term, they are selling bonds today for USD because they think their dollar today will be worth more than a dollar in the future.

So everyone is piling into the USD (which is why the DXY is up to a 3 month high).

Overtime, the effects of inflation will weigh on the USD/DXY and it will start going down as well. It's at this time that safe haven assets become safe.

>> No.30230433

>>30230331
Why are borrow rates dependent on the 10Y note? Also isn't most of that credit locked in at the low rates? I know mine are, so what's the problem?

>> No.30230454

>>30230354
>They are going to choose, 1, right? RIGHT? r-right...?


that's what powell keeps saying, he is completely ignoring any signs of inflation. He literally calls the trillions of dollars they printed ...."disinflationary", primarily because the DXY is still up against foreign currencies.

>> No.30230457

>>30222844
Well, banks can make more off of this than they can on quite a few mortgage products.

>> No.30230471

>>30230124
So will it go up or go down I dont understand

>> No.30230543

>>30230454
But thanks to low money velocity that inflation stays in real estate, equities and our meme coins, right? Consumer goods are actually deflating. So what's the problem? PRINT THAT SHIT!

>> No.30230566

>>30230354
they will choose 1 because they want to be re-elected

>> No.30230580

>>30230433
>Why are borrow rates dependent on the 10Y note? Also isn't most of that credit locked in at the low rates? I know mine are, so what's the problem?

Companies take on corporate bonds as a "loan", they are usually denominated in the same period as US treasuries. It's just a bond market thing.

>> No.30230607
File: 740 KB, 1200x1200, 1505551121923.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30230607

>>30230566
So Bitcoin and meme stocks to the moon?

>> No.30230614

>>30230124
This, except with (2) it won't be a recession, it will be worse than the Great Depression. We will survive though and be better for it in the aftermath.

>> No.30230671

>>30230580
>they are usually denominated in the same period as US treasuries
But WHY?

>It's just a bond market thing
That doesn't explain anything.

>> No.30230690

>>30220904
this doesnt make sense, the yield are rising because bond are seen as unattractive so people are selling which cause the yield to increase.

>> No.30230826

>>30230471
>So will it go up or go down I dont understand
Well we are at all time highs, so I don't know. In the short term it will probably go down, but continue to rise over long term.

>>30230543
>But thanks to low money velocity that inflation stays in real estate, equities and our meme coins, right? Consumer goods are actually deflating. So what's the problem? PRINT THAT SHIT!

I'm not sure money velocity is low right now, it's true that its concentrated in certain areas, but overall I'm not aware of it being down.

Part of the problem with the Fed is their metric for calculating inflation is biased towards no inflation, due to their constant changes in what's included in their "basket of goods"

>> No.30230845

>>30230362
Why would the dollar be worth more in the future with all that money printing going on? That makes no sense.

>> No.30230880
File: 444 KB, 1302x887, US10Y.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30230880

how is that in any way bad

>> No.30230885

>>30222844
billionaires

>> No.30230971

>>30230543
Money velocity is low but supply is also completely fucked by global supply chain issues and covid lockdowns. Consumer goods are NOT deflating, that's just fucking wrong dude. Used car prices are up like 15% in the last year, we are already seeing inflation even with this artificially low money velocity. Asset bubbles are the primary form of inflation right now but over time you will see the effects trickle into the rest of the economy.

>> No.30231017
File: 208 KB, 640x863, 1518122418086.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30231017

>>30230885
Are these people such fucking pussies that they are not willing to risk a temporary 30% SPY dip? Seriously. Index funds are the most low risk investment. Bonds literally lose you money. WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH THOSE PEOPLE?

>> No.30231050

>>30229580
>because the Fed doesn't control the price of the treasury bonds on open market,
um im not so sure about that. Fed has been openly saying they have been buying everything up on the open market for about a month now.

>> No.30231057

>>30230880
Check what happened to the stock market last time yields were at 3% and what the federal reserve did as a response. I assure you in 2018 they weren't saying "lol 3% is fine, just zoom out nigger!"

>> No.30231102

>>30230971
Maybe it's because I'm in Europe, but my grocery bill hasn't changed. Neither has my electricity or internet.

>> No.30231120

>>30230671
>>they are usually denominated in the same period as US treasuries
>But WHY?
>>It's just a bond market thing
>That doesn't explain anything.

The reason why your personal rates don't really matter in the aggregate, is that your debt is being traded on the open market lumped in with other consumer debt. There is a valuation to your debt, and if your debt becomes worthless to the open market, because time value of money = dollar today is worth more than dollar in the future, then the banks will be at risk as they can't sell debt on their balance sheet.

>> No.30231169

>>30231050
That's simply not true. They are doing $80 billion in QE for treasuries and $40 billion for mortgage backed securities, which is not "everything on the open market." True yield curve control means they have a blank check and do whatever it takes to set a ceiling on the long term yields.

>> No.30231182

>>30231057
it's not at three tho
literally 1.5
do you expect them to keep it at 1 when society goes back to norm so they keep giving out free money as 0% interest rate loans?

>> No.30231213

>>30230971
>Money velocity is low but supply is also completely fucked by global supply chain issues and covid lockdowns. Consumer goods are NOT deflating, that's just fucking wrong dude. Used car prices are up like 15% in the last year, we are already seeing inflation even with this artificially low money velocity. Asset bubbles are the primary form of inflation right now but over time you will see the effects trickle into the rest of the economy.


this 100%, inflation right now is in very select sectors. Primarily because covid has changed our consumer habits and demands.

>> No.30231251

>>30220450
Value of safe investments is rising, so funds are moving cash from stock marked into bonds, potentially causing stock market crash.

>> No.30231253

>>30231057
>Check what happened to the stock market last time yields were at 3%
The market had a temporary dip and then recovered? I was a bear during the start of COVID, but I got BTFO by the Fed. If a black swan can't tank the market, why would a 3% yield? Fucking WPC has a dividend yield of 6%, and while that is not guaranteed, I see no reason to buy bonds instead.

>>30231169
So is the Fed doing YCC or not?

>> No.30231272

>>30231169
>Fed has been openly sayin
let me find a source thats not shit brb

>> No.30231276

>>30218839
>>>30206359
I warned you guys about what was about to happen

>> No.30231296

>>30231182
Why would you assume that if 3% was the cutoff last time that the cutoff would be the same now? The debt bubble is larger than ever, the economy is completely fucked from lockdowns on top of that. Everything is completely dependent on asset bubbles, confidence, and debt. You can't suddenly reverse that to 2-2.5% without changing the underlying sickness of the economy and expect things to be fine.

>> No.30231337
File: 68 KB, 950x1024, 1540837203543.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30231337

>>30231251
>so funds are moving cash from stock marked into bonds
THEY LITERALLY AREN'T. THAT'S WHY THE YIELD IS UP. NOBODY WANTS THOSE BONDS.

>> No.30231417
File: 1.26 MB, 432x498, 12312.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30231417

>>30218839
So... how would a US hyperinflation affect the world? I'm not sure if I should laugh at USA once again failing to get their shit together or be scared because yuro is next.

>> No.30231431

>>30222452

Hilarious lmao really is

>> No.30231449

>>30231253
What do you think caused that dip to reverse its trend? To answer your question, the fed is not doing YCC. YCC is functionally similar to QE except you don't set a spend target, you literally control the yield curve to suit your needs at ANY cost necessary, because you can print money.

>> No.30231497

>>30218839
the rich get richer and the people, even the ones who try, lose.

>> No.30231519
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30231519

>>30218839
The end is near

>> No.30231529

>>30231296
it's not a cutoff but it's just ending the free money party and it has consequences, we'll see where it goes

>> No.30231543

>>30231251
>so funds are moving cash from stock marked into bonds


that's not what's happening in the short term, they are moving to cash as they reevaluate their investment strategies.

>> No.30231553

>>30231449
WILL the Fed control the curve? What is Jpow saying?

>> No.30231617
File: 697 KB, 1080x1266, gigachadgun.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30231617

>>30218839
Is this a good time to move assets and study the arms dealing trade?

>> No.30231674

>>30231417
>how would a US hyperinflation affect the world


Well just think about it, the dollar is the world global currency, so the value of their exports would go up, and their imports would go down.

But, the problem is if the dollar is hyperinflating, more than likely the ECB/China is also doing it.

>> No.30231678
File: 129 KB, 393x309, 1614817029150.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30231678

>>30218839
how much longer until the collapse???
Days?
Weeks?
Months???
What will be the final indicator?

>> No.30231686
File: 165 KB, 600x600, 1591583928533.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30231686

>>30218839

>> No.30231705

>>30231417
euro/yen/every other fiat currency also gets fucked if the dollar gets fucked. These countries have been devaluing their currency because it makes it easier to then use that currency to go to US assets.
HOWEVER, in the long run, the reason as to why China/Japan/EU/Singapore etc hasn't collapse despite printing shittons of their money is because their economy is fundamentally good. Unlike the US, who is the largest debtor nation in the world, other countries have enough of a functional economy based on actual goods and services to rebuild in the long run. The US though? They cashed all of that power in to China and Japan in the 70s-80s.

>> No.30231753

>>30231553
What started this whole shitstorm today was today's press conference (or whatever they call it) with Jpow at noon. Basically there was speculation (buy the rumor) that he would implement YCC. This didn't happen, he basically said "MONITORING THE SITUATION, LAW AND ORDER!" so the markets realized "we are on our own," spiking treasury yields immediately and tanking stocks.

WILL they implement YCC ultimately? I think they have no choice, they must. But I think there will be some hurt before they do so. Think March 2020, where the fed swoops in to save the day and we get our "V shaped recovery"

>>30231529
I don't believe the fed will ultimately end the free money party, but yes, we will see.

>> No.30231762

>>30220165
The big one, this is without a doubt the everything bubble.

>> No.30231803

>>30231705
japan and UK have incredible debt/gdp

>> No.30231857

>>30231753
We will have a V shaped recovery... denominated in USD. The actual value of those assets are going to continue to crash.
>>30231803
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_creditor_nations_by_net_international_investment_position_per_capita

>> No.30231878

>>30230845
Now because everyone jumps into it for safety, but soon it will drop like a stone

>> No.30231889

>>30231753
That makes sense. So why are people selling? Didn't april 2020 prove that the Fed can counteract the black swan? March was the biggest crash in history, the Fed swooped in and we recovered, albeit only on paper. So why are people selling? Why would anyone think that Jpow would suddenly allow deflation to happen?

>> No.30231906

>>30231678
follow the pink wojack to bobo ratio indicator

>> No.30231979

>>30231889
>Didn't april 2020 prove that the Fed can counteract the black swan?

they've used all their ammo outside of ycc

>> No.30232022

>>30231889
>So why are people selling? Didn't april 2020 prove that the Fed can counteract the black swan? March was the biggest crash in history, the Fed swooped in and we recovered, albeit only on paper. So why are people selling?
Because even if the economy recovers on paper, the real value of those assets are going to still go down. even if they increase printing. So it's better to get ahead of that and buy up some gold, foreign assets, or "crash proof" stocks.

>> No.30232040
File: 2.96 MB, 485x485, 1614555357474.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30232040

>>30218839

Round the world and home again
That's the sailor's way
Faster faster, faster faster

There's no earthly way of knowing
Which direction we are going
There's no knowing where we're rowing
Or which way the river's flowing

Is it raining, is it snowing
Is a hurricane a–blowing

Not a speck of light is showing
So the danger must be growing
Are the fires of Hell a–glowing
Is the grisly reaper mowing

Yes, the danger must be growing
For the rowers keep on rowing
And they're certainly not showing
Any signs that they are slowing.

>> No.30232075

>>30231889
Unironically, FUD. Maybe the fed swoops in and saves the day, maybe they don't. Maybe they swoop in, but things deleverage too quickly and they can't wrangle the markets despite their best efforts. My thoughts? They will get it under control and we will see the commodity/inflation cycle continue. But who knows.

>> No.30232097

>>30232022
So why is this bad for Buttcoin again?

>> No.30232108

>>30228999
checked

>> No.30232132

>>30232097
It's not. In the slightest.

>> No.30232139

>>30221750
Yes.

>> No.30232142
File: 2.29 MB, 2700x2700, pepson.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30232142

>>30231017
Can you understand that noone knows when they buy on top?

Imagine buying on top and holding over 10 years for no returns (because whole market rugpulled -65%)

>> No.30232157
File: 30 KB, 500x500, latest[1].jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30232157

>>30232075
>load ze t-note FUD

>> No.30232176

>>30231889
The Fed didn't counteract it they made the USD worthless so it looked like stocks were fine.

>> No.30232205

>>30232097
Speculating asset. The first in line when people cash out.

>> No.30232254

>>30232022
>>30231017

>> No.30232265

>>30232132
But the current correction in BTC is correlated with the stock correction which is caused by the T-Note FUD. What the shit? Markets are retarded.

>>30232142
>bagholding SPY for 10 years
That would be fucking Japanification. Billionaires can't be THAT blackpilled, can they?

>> No.30232335

>>30232205
But, uh. Gold is also down. FUCKING EXPLAIN THAT.

>> No.30232371

>>30231979
No there are still negative interest rates and Operation Twist. But it's very likely they will implement YCC.

>> No.30232400

>>30220229
The only thing the government is doing now is looting what they can before they dip out. The stimmy gibs are just our measly cut to shut us up about it.

>> No.30232404

>>30232176
Stocks rose more than the USD lost in value, tho. Compared to the Euro and the inflation rate for the Euro was NEGATIVE in 2020.

>> No.30232445

>>30232265
>But the current correction in BTC is correlated with the stock correction
Yes. This is what happens. First deflation, then hyperinflation. Gold gets liquidated because struggling financial managers need to pay off their debts, and then gold skyrockets as those debts default or get paid off with hyperinflation. As long as US debts are not sustainable, the direction of the stock markets doesn't matter, and the direction if bitcoin over the course of 1 day doesn't matter either, it's on its way up.

>> No.30232481
File: 33 KB, 881x433, Screenshot_2021-03-04 CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T No (^TNX) Charts, Data News - Yahoo Finance.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30232481

>>30218839
>30218839

>> No.30232551

>>30220148
It is a bad century if you are not Chinese.

>> No.30232567

>>30229059
Why though? That's a $15 million gain. Billionaires will still invest in the market but they'll put >75% in bonds

>> No.30232577

>>30222922
>higher demand on bond
>market price goes up
>payout stays the same
>thus the yield decreases
retard

>>30221471
this assumption made sense 10 years ago, but with real negative returns we've seen that negative risk-free rates do not work under behavioural assumptions. negative = "risky", doesnt matter the actual quantifiable risk.

>> No.30232580
File: 30 KB, 311x362, 1600132218763.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30232580

>>30232400
So how do you get out in front of this thing?

WHAT IS THE WINNING PLAY HERE, GENTLEMEN?????
JUST TELL ME WHAT TO BUY/HOLD

>> No.30232601

>>30232445
>Gold gets liquidated because struggling financial managers need to pay off their debts, and then gold skyrockets as those debts default or get paid off with hyperinflation.
But that already happened a year ago. So we are going to see flash crashes every fucking year from now, followed by more QE? What the shit?

>> No.30232632

>>30221193
>No.30220474▶>>30224915 >>30228426
> precious metal niggers where do i buy gold and silver
>>>
>Anonymous (ID: 9QrPoQim) 03/04/21(Thu)20:34:12 No.30220549▶
Party's choice

>> No.30232685

>>30232601
>But that already happened a year ago. So we are going to see flash crashes every fucking year from now, followed by more QE? What the shit?
Yes. This is the "doom vortex." Massive deflation followed by massive inflation. This is what happens when economies and currencies shit the bed like in Zimbabwe and Venezuela and Nigeria.

>> No.30232733

>>30232567
SPY has a 1.5% dividend yield ON TOP of an annual return of 10%. WHY BUY BONDS? Do they expect every single S&P500 company to suspend their dividend? If they are so bearish, they should be buying guns and ammo instead of fucking bonds.

>> No.30232736

>>30232335
In the short term, even though the net flow of money is out of bonds, it doesn't go into gold because gold is a long term inflation hedge, but it's still volatile. Literally the same thing happened last March, but even more extreme. My guess is margin calls also play a role, gold acts as a hedge and if they need to liquidate then that drives the price down. Basically in a deleveraging EVERYTHING goes down in the short term, but as we saw in 2020, once the money printing starts precious metals are very very attractive as long term holds.

>> No.30232742

>>30231678
on Friday the employment numbers get released, if they are good, prepare for dumping markets cuse inflation ahead, and the fed will probably have to raise intrest to combat it, or hyperinflation with 10%+

>> No.30232784

>>30232685
and actually the more often it happens, the faster it gets until nobody wants to deal in that currency anymore. Unlike gold/btc, where the more bubbles BTC has the less volatile it gets.

>> No.30232811

>>30230614
So in theory (2) will fucking rape us BUT in the long run we need it in order to do much better down the road?

>> No.30232816
File: 76 KB, 1595x790, hold.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30232816

>>30232265
If you bought at the top of dot com bubble you'd be holding for roughly 15 years. It's just cold logic to avoid risk.

>> No.30232825

>>30232685
Soooo, buy puts? I already fell for that a year ago and it cost me 0.5 BTC. Not happening again, sorry bobo.

>> No.30232898

INVEST IN GOLD
HOARD YOUR DRINKING WATER

>> No.30232915

>>30232825
Yes,always try to time the market. Very good choice.

>> No.30232926

>>30232816
The SPX is not full of a bunch of unprofitable startups. Apples and oranges.

>> No.30232928

>>30228856
Isn't this pretty much what made the stock market fly during this recession? If anything people are going to double down until bonds are above inflation level.

>> No.30232961

>>30232825
No, your puts will expire worthless if the FED decides to print more money. The Zimbabwean stock market soared as their currency collapsed. The real value of zimbabwean assets still declined though.
The only way out is thru gold and btc, as proven with what happened in those economies.

>> No.30232977 [DELETED] 

>>30218839
FUCK KIKES FUCK NIGGERS FUCK JANNIES
https:// discord gg/sSZf8aMAfk

>> No.30233033

NOOOOOOO NOW WE HAVE TO BUY BOOMER BONDS THAT GIVE 1.5%YIELD PER YEAR FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK

>> No.30233044
File: 26 KB, 598x574, BOOBA.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30233044

>>30232816
>that spike
holy boobla

>> No.30233048

>>30232733
>an annual return of 10%
the expected 10 year return on spy is negative now

>> No.30233053

What does this have to do with btc? i think people are playing with usd leverage in crypto.

>> No.30233067

>>30232926
To an extent yes, but this very logic still applies, very risky play vs a comfy deposit into goverment for guaranteed income. Unless ofc inflation gets it's way, in which case, we get shitshow like right now.

>> No.30233074

>>30232961
I'm balls deep in BTC. Literally 99% of my net-worth. I'm just scared of a temporary 50% flash crash like a year ago.

>> No.30233111

>>30232567
this

>>30232733
this is not about bearish my nigger. if you need to throw 9 figures into ínvestments you simply dont have many options
>but muh SPY
spy has shown some consistent long-term returns, but why the fuck would a billionare care about 8 percent CAGR in 10 years if he can also have 1.5% guaranteed annual returns which still is 15 million fucking dollars

>> No.30233209

>>30233074
If you can't stomach the risk, don't buy that much. Nothing wrong with only having 5% or 20% or 25% or 50% of your networth in. Make sure you don't buy on margin though.

>> No.30233268

>>30233111
>if he can also have 1.5% guaranteed annual returns which still is 15 million fucking dollars
Because that's not keeping up with inflation?

>> No.30233289

>>30233074
You should go long on ROPE next.

>> No.30233297

>>30230362
>>30229580
>>30229191
you really need to cool it down with the reddit spacing

>> No.30233327

>>30233268
if your choice is between -0.5% real return vs -2% return at the same risk, what do you pick?

>> No.30233332

>>30228476
Thank you for best explanation

>> No.30233333
File: 415 KB, 750x702, 1507894436247.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30233333

>>30232961
>The Zimbabwean stock market soared as their currency collapsed.
Exactly, so why are stocks down again?

>> No.30233378

doesn't this mean countries are going to war?

>> No.30233391

>>30221913
So hyperinflation still rekts it. Lol

>> No.30233399

>>30233327
The -2%, because that is just speculation while the -0.5% is guaranteed.

>> No.30233414
File: 23 KB, 435x706, 1607483476742.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30233414

>>30228476
SELL SELL SELL

>> No.30233421

>>30233333
>>30232445
Already explained. Just replace gold with stocks here, all assets experience this.

>> No.30233509

>>30233333
Your GET makes me feel obliged to give you a proper response. Stocks will go down in the short term because the level of money printing supply hasn't yet caught up to the demand needed by the market to sustain itself. Once things start crashing, then money printing will be the response to reverse the trend (as in March 2020), except the amount of money needed goes up every single time. Eventually you are just running the presses 24/7 to feel normal. It's like a meth addict that isn't getting the dose he needs.

>> No.30233517

>>30220148
Anon we are literally watching the collapse happen before our eyes. I hope you have plenty of food and clean water, as well as the means to defend yourself. This is it. This is the end. Spend some time with your family while you can. Godspeed.

>> No.30233534

>>30233333
The money is secretly put into Israel's Space program. The Jews will depart for Mars next year.

>> No.30233535

>>30233421
That's mega retarded. I know we already went through this a year ago, but it is still retarded. What's even more retarded is to expect the same thing to happen exactly one year later. That would be the shortest market cycle in history. Is everyone drinking paint thinner or something?

>> No.30233603

>>30233399
think you got me wrong mate, my point was you do have a negative real return but just keeping cash would mean even lower negative returns

anything above -0.5% would have higher risk, while you will probably get to 8% CAGR for a 20 years span why would a billionare give a fuck and risk having no payout at all during some years, instead of not just make a nice life for himself from guaranteed 15 million annually

also as i said, simply not many options at that volume. investing 9 figures into most companies moves markets

>> No.30233636

>>30233509
Isn't the likelihood of such a thing occurring with twice with exactly one year in between kinda low? People already saw what happens. First, armageddon, then Fed pump. So why sell?

>> No.30233752

>>30233636
see my earlier post:
>>30232075

>> No.30233763

>>30232580
Go all in on GameStop, cash out during the squeeze, then all in btc, ETH, doge

>> No.30233764

>>30232580
Silver, gold, crypto, real estate, guns, bullets & drugs

>> No.30233767

>>30233535
>That's mega retarded. I know we already went through this a year ago, but it is still retarded. What's even more retarded is to expect the same thing to happen exactly one year later. That would be the shortest market cycle in history. Is everyone drinking paint thinner or something?
Yes, the fed is huffing paint thinner. Infinite money printing like japan and other countries only works in those countries because their economy isn't shit. The US on the other hand is the nation with the highest debt, highest deficits, lowest wages (compared to other 1st worlds), highest expenses, everything.
Our economy is fucked and we're infinite money printing for some reason.
Also the "speed" thing is what I mentioned here: >>30232784 This is the "doom vortex" that venezuelan and zimbabwean currency undergoes.

>> No.30233785
File: 35 KB, 190x190, tuld.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30233785

>>30233517
THIS IS IT! I'M TELLING YOU THIS IS IT!

>> No.30233824

>>30233517
Oh? The world is ending yet again?
You should sell your shirt and await the coming of Christ, just like the countless doomsday prophets before you.

>> No.30233842

>>30233517
yeah no it isn't.

>> No.30233910
File: 41 KB, 985x469, Screenshot_2021-03-04_14-37-59.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30233910

>> No.30233928

>>30233767
But the US Dollar is the world reserve currency. Can't they just print that shit forever? Even Buffet said so.

>> No.30233963

>>30233535
>>30233767
Also, because I'm replying faster than I'm thinking, this QE cycle has actually been going on since 2008 when they opened pandora's box. If they just allowed banks to take their medicine and die instead of saving them with QE, we wouldn't be in this mess (however the US probably would have lost its #1 status). Money printing has gone parabolic to sustain it ever since.

>> No.30233983

There are too many people pretending to be economists here. None of you actually know what's happening and are just parroting what you hear in the media.

>> No.30234026

>>30233928
For the moment it is. But the fear is that china will peg the yuan to petrol which will destroy the usd

>> No.30234042

>>30233928
Not only that, all the markets are betting that the US economy will recover first and fastest with the most gains. So all the doomsayers are retarded, for the next year at least.

>> No.30234048

>>30233963
I know this. What I am asking is why this is scaring investors. The market detached from reality a year ago.

>> No.30234057

>>30233928
I will only accept renminbi from now on, American imperialists.

>> No.30234102

>>30233928
No, they can't. We don't have an economy. The USD also technically isn't the "world reserve" currency the same way it literally was post ww2/bretton woods. Why the fuck would anyone want USD if their USD denominated debts get paid off from hyperinflation, and the value of US assets decline because our economy is shit and hyperinflation in a bad economy is worse?

>> No.30234105

>>30218839
Why is it bad for the USD? I thought it's a good thing for usd and us economy if demand for bonds increases

>> No.30234118

>>30233983
I'm not, I'm questioning the validity of the yield fud. Pretty sure nobody in the media is taking my position here.

>> No.30234147
File: 97 KB, 1845x1038, murray.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30234147

The Big One is coming, and you're laughing, you're laughing!

>> No.30234185
File: 726 KB, 2300x2105, yieldspost.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30234185

>>30220165

>> No.30234223

>>30234102
Because, despite all the doom and gloom, the USD isn't doing THAT badly?

>> No.30234242

Let me spell it out for you retards. This is going to go up to 2%+ unfortunately. That's where the markets been comfortable with the 10y for years now. I don't like it, but it is what it is. We're getting there. We'll probably see more retards continue to sell off until SPY is at 3300-3400

>> No.30234319

>>30234223
If it wasn't doing that badly, the market wouldn't be selling off just because bond yields rose 0.5%. Those yields are still negative to inflation...

>> No.30234323

>>30233983
The level of depth the media covers in relation to bonds is "PRICE IS INVERSE TO YIELD." That's why nobody on fucking /biz/ understands the significance of "muh 1.5%, it was 3% just a few years ago!"

>> No.30234347
File: 58 KB, 1855x95, file.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30234347

>>30234118
This is why everybody is selling, because they're being told to do so through subliminal and direct RED BREAKING NEWS messages about the impending collapse. Also because of a weird cyclic fear that somehow the market's meant to repeat last year's march, so it has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. And there's a more sinister move to directly target all the things retail investors got into in the last 12 months to discourage small retail investors.

>> No.30234374

>>30234319
Circular logic. You assume that the market is rational and not driven by nonsense tea leaf reading speculation.

>> No.30234397

Doesn't the rate going up mean investors are pulling out of bonds? Meaning they're looking to place their money elsewhere? Like the stock market and in crypto?

>> No.30234459

Yes deflation is coming. This has been known for at least 2 years now. Stocks and crypto are down because they are speculative assets that are closely tied together. /thread

>> No.30234478

>>30234374
Okay. Think about it this way. At it's core, buying US treasury bonds is the same as investing in the future of the US. By giving the US this loan, you are going to accumulate USD in the future with the belief that the government is both going to be able to pay off that loan, and that the dollars you're paid in aren't worthless.
US treasury yields are going up because NOBODY WANTS TO BUY THOSE BONDS. The US has no future.

>> No.30234488
File: 79 KB, 1008x630, i'm watching.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30234488

3/11, mark that date

>> No.30234505

>>30234397
I know, right? Shit makes ZERO sense. The market is down, but the yield is up, so the money is obviously not going into bonds but sitting in cash and this is being explained by fears of hyperinflation. Yeah, right. Makes no sense.

>but muh deflation before inflation
We already did this a year ago.

>> No.30234637

>>30234505
>We already did this a year ago.
Don't you get it!? This is the doom vortex. It started in 2008. The vortex gets faster and faster every time it happens. Last time it took 10 years before another deflationary event made inflation rear its head and create a V shaped recovery, then it's only one year later, then it's 2 months... this is the exact shit that happened in weimar germany.

>> No.30234724

>>30234505
Sitting in cash for the short term (a few months) is completely different from buying a treasury bond for the next 10 years of possible inflation.

>we did this a year ago
Yeah, and we only got out of it because the fed printed money. They are doing that but we need MORE and they aren't giving it.

>> No.30234742

>>30234459
They really weren't before covid.

>> No.30234809

>>30234374
Tea leaf great Chinese export

>> No.30234827

>>30234724
>They are doing that but we need MORE and they aren't giving it.
But didn't Jpow say that the Fed hasn't reached its goals yet? So they are committed to printing and doing what ever it takes, right? Why isn't this calming the fears. It worked a year ago.

>> No.30234903

>>30234724
So people are going into cash and the media assumes that money will go into bonds simply because their yield is just slightly above dogshit? Lmao

>> No.30234921

>>30234827
>So they are committed to printing and doing what ever it takes, right?
Literally not what he said lmfao. He said "we have the tools" and was really sketchy and vague about what exactly they were willing to do. Yields are rising fast and he isn't announcing additional QE, that's highly concerning to the market.

>> No.30234942

>>30234505
because stocks is speculative full of retail investors, they are waiting in cash to find better yield than bond

>> No.30234947

>>30234827
>Why isn't this calming the fears. It worked a year ago.
It didn't work a year ago. If it did work, they wouldn't need to print more NOW. This is why QE charts go parabolic.

>> No.30234970

>>30234827
>Why isn't this calming the fears.
because this time nothing will calm the fears. people are completely losing confidence in the fed.

>> No.30235047 [DELETED] 

>>30234637
>market cycles accelerating by one order of magnitude. Yeah, and then we are experiencing hyper deflation on one day and hyperinflation the next, eventually on a minute to minute basis and the VIX will go to infinity. Somehow I don't think this is how the economy works.

>> No.30235066

>>30234478
This is an interesting view point. But I think you're misperceiving what causes the yield bond's rate to increase.
There's several other factors that contribute to it increasing other than demand for the bond.
In general, I agree with your sentiment tho. Buying are buying the bond because they believe that equities are going to have a hard time in the next few years.

>> No.30235071

>>30234742
How new are you? Be honest. They were closely correlated 80 percent of the time when crypto wasn't in a bull/bear market such as these past few months and 2018

>> No.30235123

>babies crying about 1.50% yeild when it was like 3% in 2018
why

>> No.30235172

>>30220474
>>/biz/pmg

>> No.30235185
File: 143 KB, 1228x721, btcspycc.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30235185

>>30234970
>people are completely losing confidence in the fed.
After a 60% SPY pump during a 100 year black swan event?

>>30235071
Old enough to read a fucking CC

>> No.30235204

>>30234488
Spooky.

>> No.30235221

>>30235123
it's a nothing burger, market will prob be bought up tomorrow

>> No.30235226

>>30235047
>Yeah, and then we are experiencing hyper deflation on one day and hyperinflation the next, eventually on a minute to minute basis and the VIX will go to infinity. Somehow I don't think this is how the economy works.
You'd be wrong. If you print infinite money with no infinite economy, that's the result, volatility goes to infinity lmao.

>> No.30235234

>>30234026
if China does that, won't winnie be discovered paying terrorists to attack America or something and thus justify a war with them?

>> No.30235244
File: 130 KB, 1280x720, 1490416531058.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30235244

>>30234459
Anon, I just want to check, why do you believe the USD is going into deflation?
I keep hearing the USD is going into deflation because there's a massive amount of demand in the global markets for it but not enough liquidity. Is that a part of it? Something to do with supply chains as well slowing down too I've heard.

>> No.30235246
File: 361 KB, 685x886, 1584752767562.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30235246

>market cycles accelerating by one order of magnitude.

Yeah, and then we are experiencing hyperdeflation on one day and hyperinflation the next, eventually on a minute to minute basis and the VIX will go to infinity. Somehow I don't think this is how the economy works.

>> No.30235265

Imagine getting JUSTed by the FED.

>> No.30235295

>>30234488
Checked

>> No.30235313

>>30218839
CRASH IS COMMING

>> No.30235322

>>30235246
>Yeah, and then we are experiencing hyperdeflation on one day and hyperinflation the next, eventually on a minute to minute basis and the VIX will go to infinity. Somehow I don't think this is how the economy works.
>>30235226

>> No.30235326

>>30235226
So just buy long term OTM options? They will go to infinity with the VIX.

>> No.30235379

still try to get income with this erc tax?
what a fag, use BSC projects, hold SWG and receive rewards every day

>stop wasting your time with shitcoins

>> No.30235385

>>30235326
No, because by the time vix goes to infinity you're never going to find someone to take your dollars you're getting paid in. Although your options will "print"

>> No.30235445
File: 2.23 MB, 370x323, 1505305331381.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30235445

>>30235379
Wrong thread.

>> No.30235503

>>30235385
So this should be bullish for BTC and gold, right?

>> No.30235562

Although I disagree with the doom and gloom, I have to say, unusually good thread. This is what WSB should be discussing if they weren't obsessed with their GME bags.

>> No.30235574

>>30221574
Large means driven by lowest common denominator. Like a herd of lemmings.

>> No.30235575

>>30235503
Exactly.

>> No.30235621

>>30230690

this dude just broke the internet

>> No.30235647

>>30235575
But they are dumping because of "muh deflation before inflation" narrative. Fucking dumb.

>> No.30235665

>>30235503
BTC has been bought with the same debt as stocks though, so interests going high isn't exactly optimal.

>> No.30235779

>>30235665
But most of that debt is fixed rate, isn't it?

>> No.30235788

>>30235647
>But they are dumping because of "muh deflation before inflation" narrative
It's not dumb, it's inevitable.
Who owns gold right now? Banks, money managers, hedge funds. Those are people who have huge debt liabilities. They need to liquidate their gold/stocks to pay off their debt, and if that isn't enough (it isn't, we have no economy to pay off this debt), then the fed prints more money to pay it off. Or the US just defaults on everything, in which case the dollar still dies as US assets and US debt becomes worthless, since that's what gives the dollar its value in the first place.
This circular economy is why it's called a "doom vortex"

>> No.30235863
File: 58 KB, 640x412, 2vt0g4ti1lz51.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30235863

>>30235788
So just print more money right now before the deflation hits? What's the problem?

>> No.30235877

>>30230826
this guy is smart. thanks for teaching us plebs.

>> No.30235945

>>30218839
It was much higher before the meme virus, it was over 10% 40 years ago. Who's that fucking moron who spams these pointless threads?

>> No.30236000

>>30235945
>guaranteed 10% yield
One can only dream.

>> No.30236015

>>30234185
>this is what /pmg/ actually believes in

>> No.30236068

>>30235863
Then those debts get paid off with cheap, free USD and the value of the dollar collapses. We're ALREADY in the deflation/inflation spiral and we have been since 2008, or possibly earlier.
Investing in a country's currency is like investing in that country's economy. The US's only thriving economy is its debt economy. So if that debt economy dies, so too does the entire US economy and the USD. It doesn't matter whether that happens with hyperinflation or deflation, one drags out the other until nobody wants to deal in that currency/with that country anymore

>> No.30236200

>>30236000
>13.5% inflation in 1980
>10 year treasury yield: 11.43%
Keep dreaming, no such thing as a free lunch.

Oh except inflation right now is still 10% using the same metrics they used in 1980 so the real rate went from -2% to -8%. Enjoy!

>> No.30236208

hey crypto niggers rising rising treasury yield and rising interest rates is going to absolutely skewer BTC. I opened my short at $49089 this morning. We're going to test 40k if the tech sell off continues tomorrow. Possibly lower through the sunday dip. Screen cap this dick.

>> No.30236223

>>30231213
why is someone as educated as you hanging out here?

>> No.30236268

>>30234185
So in one scenario, you want to hold cash and the other gold?

>> No.30236325

>>30236200
Did the inflation metric in the 80s include real estate?

>> No.30236362

>>30233824

>He thinks Christ isn't coming.

That anon was talking about the end of the Jew's game. Not the coming of Christ. Your demon soul will know when He is on his way.

>> No.30236367

>>30236268
In both scenarios you should be holding physical gold because if the market crashes again you won't be able to even buy physical (think silver squeeze the sequel except inventories are already cleared out from the silver squeeze so even worse). Cash is for the short term though to buy the dip in other assets, yes.

>> No.30236391

>>30236268
Both scenarios end in death of the dollar and the collapse of the US economy. In both cases you want gold or crypto and use its transferrability to capital flight to a country with a real economy.

>> No.30236435

>>30234478
If nobody wants em, why would it cause a crash in equities?

>> No.30236497

>>30236391
So let me get this straight

Scenario A: You're doom and gloom is bullshit, yields go down because of the fed, we don't experience inflation, but BTC will go up because of cheap debt.

Scenario B: The US goes down the toilet and BTC goes up because inflation.

>> No.30236526

>>30235244
As far as I can tell, there are plenty of "experts" saying deflation, and plenty saying inflation. Seems to me everyone has an opinion but nobody actually knows.

>> No.30236538

>>30236435
Because if nobody wants to be invested in the USA, nobody wants to be invested in the stock market as these prices either. This causes a rotation from stocks into gold and foreign assets.

>> No.30236562

>>30236435
This is still what I don't get. People are sitting in cash because they fear inflation? Makes zero sense.

>> No.30236618

>>30236538
But gold is also down.

>> No.30236690

>>30236497
Scenario B is the real doom and gloom, hyperinflation is far far far far worse than depression and far more likely right now.
>>30236562
They need cash in the short term to not immediately default on their debts. So, if the US prints money to pay off that debt for them, the dollar will die from hyperinflation and death spiral/doom vortex. If they default on their loans, the USD will die too because the demand for the USD comes from debt and not a real economy/goods and services like in the 60s.

>> No.30236699

>>30234637
> another deflationary event made inflation rear its head and create a V shaped recovery
So last years crash never ended? The recovery was purely an expression of inflation?

>> No.30236712

>>30229174
>SPY
>max risk

>> No.30236715

>>30233333
checked

>> No.30236740

>>30236618
Gold is being manipulated so you can make stupid arguments like this one.

>> No.30236790

>>30236690
So what should we do with our usd?

>> No.30236824

>>30230124
2 is healthy and natural, also
STOP KICKING THE FUCKING CAN DOWN THE ROAD I WANT A HOUSE AAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH

>> No.30236838

>>30221546
Anyone have a link to this clip? Checked on YouTube and all that came up was jew propaganda.

>> No.30236892

>>30236699
Nobody is paying their rent, their mortgage, evictions are frozen, unemployment is high, M1 is through the fucking roof, so yes, the recovery was purely an expression of people getting paid fiat to produce no value to society.

>> No.30236900
File: 249 KB, 935x941, niggernigger.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30236900

>>30236690
>>30236618
All financial instruments experience short term pain as its the current owners of those financial instruments are also owners of massive debt liabilities. Then they spike as those debts either default or hyperinflate.
The only way gold does bad is if the economy is actually healthy, which it clearly isn't.
>>30236699
Yes. In fact, even further, 2008's crash never ended. It's only kept getting worse. Picrel. We are also in double digit percentages in both unemployment and rent/mortgage deliquency.

>> No.30236915

>>30236824
Never gonna happen.

>> No.30236957

>>30236790
buy gold and crypto before the usd becomes worthless.

>> No.30236974

>>30236699
Uh, yes? That's why it's a k-shaped recovery. Real economy has been in the toilet for a solid year. The market is detached from reality.

>> No.30237074

>>30236900
And Americans have the absolute audacity to call me a europoor. Only housing is through the roof, college and healthcare are practically free. Yes, tax assrape. But I prefer high taxes to a 100k student loan I can't even default on.

>> No.30237092

>>30236957
>gold
yes.
>crypto
maybe.

>> No.30237111

Oh look the Qtards are here from /pol/. Or maybe its Jim Rogers, idk

Reality check: SPY is only down 5% from an ATH less than 1 month ago. The reason /biz/ is getting fucked is because they are shittier at investing than even reddit. Literally buying a 3x leveraged sector etf at the very top and garbage like that.

With a non-retarded portfolio I have had a grand total of 1 shitty day (the day tech surged) and every other day has been green. Big players re-evaluating their positions is correct as you would expect, everything else is FUD. TESLA had a P/E of over 1000, you just expect this shit to never correct?

>> No.30237152

>>30237074
That's because right wingers are retarded. Euros pay higher taxes but their total expenses are far lower than the US. Also their middle class income is actually higher, the US is one of the poorest countries when it comes to middle class income among "first world" countries

>> No.30237157

>>30237111
Checked. This is the post I've been waiting for.

>> No.30237212

>>30237152
This comes at the expense of not being able to start a business.

>> No.30237307

>>30237212
No, it only makes it cheaper to start a business in the US.
As we're seeing right now with the hyperinflation threat is that this level of cheap is NOT SUSTAINABLE.

>> No.30237315

>>30236562
Maybe they fear a stock market crash more and are keeping their assets liquid (cash) while they're trying to figure out where the chips fall?

>They need cash in the short term to not immediately default on their debts
So the USD dies either way? I guess everything will drop again, the way it did last spring, but are gold, silver and crypto the right assets to hold here?

>> No.30237376

>>30236435
>Stock grows on low interest rate.
>Debt market don't want it so low because risks
>Fed will either kill market or usa budget

>> No.30237394

>>30237315
>So the USD dies either way? I guess everything will drop again, the way it did last spring, but are gold, silver and crypto the right assets to hold here?
Yes. Maybe ownership in foreign companies too but that's riskier.

>> No.30237402

>>30231213
I mean does anyone with half a brain even trust the cpi anymore? It's been suppressed by farm bills and restructuring because food and other consumer goods have fallen year over year and yet proven wealth building durable goods and financial instruments continue receding from view.
>Savings interest now generally goes out to thousandths
What a joke.

>> No.30237422

>>30237376
I vote for "kill budget"