Quantcast
[ 3 / biz / cgl / ck / diy / fa / g / ic / jp / lit / sci / tg / vr / vt ] [ index / top / reports / report a bug ] [ 4plebs / archived.moe / rbt ]

Due to resource constraints, /g/ and /tg/ will no longer be archived or available. Other archivers continue to archive these boards.Become a Patron!

/biz/ - Business & Finance


View post   

[ Toggle deleted replies ]
File: 130 KB, 591x445, 18-year-cycle.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
26230029 No.26230029 [Reply] [Original] [archived.moe]

Housing Never Crash? More like we move in a 18 year cycle. The 18 year real estate cycle will end around 2024-2025.

Crash is imminent. Prove me WRONG.

>> No.26230169

Money is cheap as fuck at the moment. BRRR is infinite. Inflation will keep RE prices mooning while their actual value stagnates, there will be no crash.

>> No.26230178
File: 57 KB, 800x462, real-estate-cycle-graph.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
26230178

Other factors such as interest rates, government policies and subsidies, mortgage rates, lending, and international conflict, as well as regional real estate market differences, can affect these swings by two or three years, but they have not, historically, stopped the 18-year cycle itself (with the exception of World War II). Historic and modern economists say this is partly due to the nature of land ownership, investment, taxation and development, not other economic factors.

>> No.26230226
File: 42 KB, 850x400, quote-millionaires-don-t-use-astrology-the-billionaires-do-j-p-morgan-82-24-94.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
26230226

>>26230169
Brrr goes infinite will mean your house is worth a billion dollars and no one will be able to afford it. US would be such a shit hole people will be worried leaving the country.

>> No.26230239
File: 22 KB, 590x348, Homes-USD-1890.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
26230239

population density will peak this century.
manufacturing innovation will make supply cheaper
housing never go up

>> No.26230506
File: 209 KB, 2000x1437, covid beach dry sand wet sand.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
26230506

If you think the price of housing will crash because some pattern on a chart is going to repeat and determine all other factors based on the coincidental repetition of patterns, you might as well sacrifice virgins to the fucking volcano god and hope it brings rain.

Fed is printing enormous amounts of money. Inflation of actual hard assets is through the fucking roof. You hear inflation is near zero, and you hear the printer goes brrr. Do you know how to square those two things? Simple: inflation is not near zero, it's just all occurring in assets like real estate.

House prices are not a bubble. They're just accurately reflecting the declining value of the dollar.

>> No.26230603

>>26230029
Says the Eternally priced out copecuck, why would real estate crash when even in 08-09 rents never went down, so those whales now desperately chasing yield are gonna put a heavy floor on the price

>> No.26230679

>>26230029
It'll crash in 2024 back down to 2021 levels. Then what?

>> No.26230727

>>26230029
They were planning to put us in camps before allowing a recession

>> No.26230729

People don’t feel confident holding cash, they need to print more for social programs and to support the economy as the pandemic shows no signs of easing up. why would that change, hence why buttcoin is 35k, people are even more confident holding fkn trading cards then cash . Why would /they/ allow rates/yields to go up considerably when /they/ are taking on trillions in fresh debt, why wouldn’t /they/ just inflate that debt away

>> No.26230785
File: 12 KB, 209x241, rich.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
26230785

>>26230506
Housing is in a bubble because of the moratorium and forbearance. The artificial low inventory is causing prices to increase along with the high migration. This will not continue.

People really believe US can just keep printing money into infinity without any consequences? First will be the lost of the world reserve currency status, second inflation will mean housing prices will go up but your purchasing power goes down. Third if inflation is not stopped with interest rate increase hyperinflation will follow.

If US would allow hyperinflation to occur your dollars will be worthless and US will become a third world shithole and everyone would be moving out of the country.

Which scenario is more likely? Housing prices drop with the 18 year cycle with a long track history Or US turning into a shithole 3rd world country with useless dollars?

Know the odds beat the House.

>> No.26230949
File: 286 KB, 918x666, 1610861426918.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
26230949

>>26230029
Frig you OP. Why 18 years? Aren't we near a 2007 dump because of the repo market through 2019-2020, and the inflation from COVID? Shouldnt that speed this cycle up? I WANT TO MOVE OUT BUT I DONT WANNA RENT

>> No.26231561

>>26230949
I hope it would move up but with MMT that seems not likely

>> No.26232330
File: 17 KB, 400x400, 2dPN5zuE.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
26232330

Housing crash 2025!

>> No.26232722

>>26230239
You proved him right.

>> No.26232832

>>26232722
no i showed housing goes sideways despite the massive population density pumps and no innovation of the last century
so it's gonna go down

obviously everything goes up against fiat even dog shit but that's not really up

>> No.26232905
File: 77 KB, 900x900, fb.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
26232905

>>26232832
cope..

real estate is going to crash. kek

>> No.26232935
File: 28 KB, 489x499, 1600304493857.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
26232935

So is now a good time to buy or na?

>> No.26232938
File: 393 KB, 1024x655, 1606933067902.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
26232938

>>26230029
>Housing crash in 2024-2025
>BTC halving in 2023
>1 BTC = 1 house by 2025
WGMI

>> No.26232992
File: 989 KB, 455x344, 1610938283078.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
26232992

>he did not inherit a house from his parents at 18

>> No.26233064

>>26230029
all models are wrong

>> No.26233144
File: 47 KB, 1067x600, coolpepe.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
26233144

>>26233064
2025 cope..

>> No.26233165

>>26230226
>no one will be able to afford it
That's why we have loans. If houses get that expensives then banks will lend you money at near 0 int rate and you'll play for it until someone buys the house and transfers the loan.

>> No.26233242
File: 78 KB, 734x434, Christine Larged.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
26233242

>>26233165
A billion dollar loan with a salary of $60k. kek.

>> No.26233245

>>26230785
Look who is in charge and look at the political narrative of the mass. We want to turn into a shithole 3rd world country with useless dollars. >Biden is going to increase minimum wage
>people who aren't capable are going to get hired because of diversity
>AOC is non-stop demonizing people who produce
>New green deal would make us literally go back into the dark ages

>> No.26233334

>>26233242
Yes, but then again if it gets to that price the value of the dollar would be very low meaning that you wouldn't earn 60k, but like 60kk.

>> No.26233422

nothing makes me happier than seeing all the people LITERALLY trying to claim that housing market will never ever crash ever again. top kek

>> No.26233532

>>26232905
>real estate is going to crash
that is my opinion, can you read?

>> No.26233644

>>26233334
Except wages are stagnant so you're wrong there.

>> No.26234350

>>26233422
I agree it will crash again, inevitably. But I dont think it will for another 10 years

>> No.26234605
File: 10 KB, 259x194, images.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
26234605

What's done is done, it feels so bad,
What once was happy now is sad.
The world is ending.
I wish that i could turn back time,
'Cause now the guilt is all mine.
I know we can't forget the past,
You can't forget love and pride.
Because of that, it's killing me inside.
It all returns to nothing,
It all comes tumbling down, tumbling down, tumbling down.
It all returns to nothing,

>> No.26234721

>>26230029
are you fucking retarded. LBS literally needs to drop half of its fuckin value before theres even a small shift in the housing market.

Look at the price of 2x6x12 and tell me this shits crashing anytime soon.

Of course you retards know nothing about housing since you live with ur parents.

>> No.26234722

>>26233422
It makes sense. Assets and equities may never crash again if monetary policy continues the way it does

>> No.26234759

>>26234721
>LBS

Has been falling. No longer rising...

>> No.26234993

>>26234759
no shit, the mills just started back up again after being SHUT DOWN COMPLETELY, ofc its gunna crash. The price of building new will not fucking go down for a long time, especially with builders upselling zip sheathing and "monopoly" homes, passive homes are really the only thing being built nowadays by reputive builders.

There will still be nigger flippers and shit. But once all the retarded boomers are dead that built 2x4x8 houses with Tyvek are dead that shit aint going down nigger

>> No.26235013

you are such an idiot. why would you choose an arbitrary number like 18 and call it a cycle.

the crypto cycle makes sense because it is tied around the halvening event that happens at a relatively fixed time.

what is the event that is forcing real estate to follow this cycle whose period you are arbitrarily selecting?

>> No.26235108

>>26235013
because they are stupid fucking niggers who cant understand the price of commodities

Just cause they 10x'd their stinky linkies like me they think they have full knowledge of everything

>> No.26235122
File: 861 KB, 1080x2520, 1609516838551.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
26235122

>>26234993
Cope. You scared of bobo?

>>26235013
Read what OP wrote

26230178

>> No.26235265

>>26235013
>>26230029
There's not even an X-axis value on the chart lmao. It's poorly drawn up amateur bullshit artistry.
>>26234722
This. Coping rentcels praying for a housing crash are going to be waiting until they're half dead. Anyone with a solid grasp of monetary theory and fed policy knows housing prices aren't "crashing" anytime soon. Prices don't go down until rates go up. And rates aren't going up anytime soon.

>> No.26235284
File: 46 KB, 800x400, 800px-Median_and_Average_Sales_Prices_of_New_Homes_Sold_in_United_States_1963-2016_annual.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
26235284

>>26230029
Doesn't look like a crash until 2007.
If we instead adjust for inflation and interest rates then we'll see a mildly oscillating pattern which again only spikes in 2007 / 2008.
I'll post that other view in a minute.

>> No.26235401
File: 197 KB, 582x437, RealPrice.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
26235401

>>26230029
>>26235284
Note neither of these patterns support your conclusion. In fact based on mortgage rates and inflation we're about as far away from another 2008 as possible.

>> No.26235403

>>26230029
we're just 20 years behind canada before decrepit, one-story boomer shacks cost 2 million.

>> No.26235413
File: 35 KB, 576x319, chary.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
26235413

>>26235284

Housing prices adjusted for inflation. There was a huge crash.

>> No.26235431

>>26235284
Ah yes, an actual chart from an actual source. Take note OP, you rentcuck retard

>> No.26235478
File: 231 KB, 860x628, 120-1208698_pepe-the-frog-confused-clipart-png-download-confused.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
26235478

>>26235401
Wow you people really don't know how to read a graphic or chart? The housing prices did not crash until 2010-2011. 2007 was the peak of the cycle you idiots and it started falling ending in 2011 with the lowest prices and the start of the cycle around 2012.

>> No.26235505

>>26233064
But some are useful.

t. Chadistician

>> No.26235534

>>26235122
I HAVE MORE LINK THAN YOU COPING FAGGOT NIGGER.

>nyc
THE AVERAGE AGE OF RESIDENTIAL HOUSING IS 90 FUCKING YEARS OLD. HOUSES WILL LITERALLY START FALLING SOON CAUSE YOUR STUPID FUCKING NIGGER FAMILY CANT BUILD HOUSES TO EVEN LAST 100 YEARS YOU FUCKING YANKEE NIGGER FUCK

>> No.26235572

>>26235413
Are you talking about the Great Depression lol? That wasn't even in the chart. Check the X axis.
If you mean 2007 / 2008 I already mentioned that.
Also here's one with inflation and mortgage rates. You usually want to look at both for the de-trended take:
>>26235401

>> No.26235598

>>26233644
Low wage earning is stagnant but middle and upper management jobs are making more money, and anyway, as he said, you’ll get a low interest loan and be financed for it by a government backed mortgage lender.

>> No.26235630

>>26235572
You chart goes back to 1999. not enough data. The data goes back to 1900. 18 year cycle is real.

>> No.26235651

>>26235478
A crash is a sudden violent drop you idiot, not an extended period of low interest and low inflation.

>> No.26235675

>>26235630
Only thing real is your renting faggot ass barely making payments

>> No.26235683

>>26230029
Biden is a communist. Eviction and foreclosure bans will be permanent.
There are no crashes under communism.

>> No.26235707
File: 61 KB, 700x687, 56.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
26235707

>>26235651
Oh I didn't know we are now playing with the WORD game.

kek

keep coping because you have not argument against the 18 year cycle.

>> No.26235738

>>26235630
There was no housing crash 18 years before the 2008 subprime lending crash. Prices flattened a bit starting at the end of the 1990s and that's about it between early 1990 and 2008.

>> No.26235771

>>26235707
>If I redefine "crash" as "not a crash" I win
OK. Enjoy never owning a home.

>> No.26235789
File: 7 KB, 201x251, fa.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
26235789

>>26235738
>▶
I guess you really don't know how to look at a chart. Are you Janet Yellen?

kek

>> No.26235817

>>26235789
Low interest and high inflation are good for housing you complete retard. High interest precedes crashes if anything.

>> No.26235897
File: 133 KB, 360x346, 222.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
26235897

>>26235817
Cope. Janet The Fellen Yellen.

It's all coming down, tumbling down. 2025 and there is nothing you can do but accept your fate.

All coming down back to nothing..

>> No.26235935

>>26233242
Multi-generational home loans anon. Just think, you'll have something to pass down to your kids.

>> No.26235956

>>26235897
OK. I will enjoy continuing to own my nice suburban home while you can enjoy waiting for 4 years in an apartment for your crash that's definitely happening.

>> No.26236037

What happens with all these million dollar home loans that no one ends up paying back?

>> No.26236135

>>26236037
The bank takes the money that was already paid, takes the house, resells it, and does it again.

>> No.26236140

>>26236037
we are in communism now.
study what happened during the great leap forward in regards to real estate.

>> No.26236276

>>26236037
That's what constantly rising inflation is for. If the Fed keeps debasing USD then $1,000,000 today will be more like $100,000 stretched out into hundreds of monthly payments.
You help subsidize homeowners' affordable housing with your savings disintegrating over time to inflation.

>>
Name (leave empty)
Comment (leave empty)
Name
E-mail
Subject
Comment
Password [?]Password used for file deletion.
Captcha
Action