[ 3 / biz / cgl / ck / diy / fa / ic / jp / lit / sci / vr / vt ] [ index / top / reports ] [ become a patron ] [ status ]
2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance

View post   
File: 193 KB, 1280x720, 1610030265472.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
25813850 No.25813850 [Reply] [Original]

Should I buy my first home now or wait until after the housing market crashes?

>> No.25813870

>>25813850

now, the housing market can never crash it's literally impossible

>> No.25813884

>>25813850
There will not be a housing market crash. Everything is inflating.

>> No.25814159

>>25813870
Based retard

>> No.25814177

Now. Everyone needs somewhere to live. Nobody needs shitcoins.

>> No.25814213

>>25814159
boomers will never allow it to crash.
>>25813884
is right

>> No.25814217

>>25813850
Housing crashes don't even matter if you're not overleveraged

>> No.25814221

>>25813850
it will when the borders shut forever and thirdworlders cannot buy a house anymore

>> No.25814458

>>25814221
By your logic, Biden will open the floodgates so I expect Chinese money to eat everything up and leave nothing in its wake.

>> No.25814497

>>25813850

Hyperinflation will make a cuckshed cost 20mil

>> No.25814609

>>25814497
Will rent prices also go up?

>> No.25814741

>>25814609
They've been going up anon. I live in socal and a 1 bedroom used to be less than a thousand. Now it's well over that for ones that aren't even good.

>> No.25814920
File: 58 KB, 651x437, 1609623963776.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
25814920

>>25813850
>>25814159
Does 2020 look like 2007 to you?
Inflation and interest rates factored in the prices you're seeing are actually bargains right now.

>> No.25814932

>>25813850
Here is the thing Anon... the real estate markets won't crash for a long time to come. You know why? Because all the rich folks world wide don't want cash. Cash is bad. Cash right now means you lose your money by the minute, just by it sitting there. So what are the options? Stocks? Seen these prices? Crypto? Still scares most people. Gold? Ok, at least I won't lose money, but also not really gain.
What do, what do? Ah yes, real estate.

>> No.25815098

>>25814932
Okay, well, I don't know about you, but have you seen house prices recently? How is it people can afford that much in down payment or the mortgage payments? Where are they getting the money from? Something isn't right.

>> No.25815318

>>25815098
>How is it people can afford that much in down payment or the mortgage payments?
The mortgage payments are as cheap as they get right now. See:
>>25814920
Interest rates (mortgage rates) are literally as low as they have ever been since the beginning of historical records. Inflation is as high as it's ever been. In real value terms it has never been less expensive to take on a mortgage.

>> No.25815527

if you can't keep up with mortagage payments in times of trouble (((((they))))) get the house.

>> No.25815675

>>25815527
They also paid for it. Until you paid back.

>> No.25815837
File: 19 KB, 720x540, Furuhata 02.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
25815837

>>25813850
now this is the sort of flash crash I can get into!

>> No.25815870

>>25814920
>muh case-price (((shiller))) index
>Even if you're not buying or selling a home, home prices are an indicator of how the broader economy is performing. Do people feel confident that now is a good time to make a large, expensive investment? How well is a particular geographic region performing economically? How are businesses that have a large stake in the housing sector performing? The Case-Shiller Index provides insight into all of these indicators.

Stop posting this meme chart, it's like the stock market. It's all a mirage, you've seen food bank lines recently? The economy isn't doing that great!

>> No.25815962

>>25813870
>housing market can never crash it's literally impossible
this
the fed already owns 30% of homes
they can print all the money they want to prop up the market
and they will

>> No.25815965

I've been hoarding cash, waiting for the right moment to pick up a house when the economy crashes

>> No.25816030

>>25813870
>housing market can never crash it's literally impossible
in 2008 it crashed

>> No.25816034

>>25815870
>N-No, you can't take into account interest and inflation!
Fuck off.
>The economy isn't doing that great!
And yet demand for real estate is greatly exceeding supply. Something which has an obvious explanation you're choosing to ignore for whatever reason.

>> No.25816072

>>25814920
why should I use this index to take decision
of buying / not buying?

>> No.25816287

>>25816034
>Demand exceeding supply
Wrong, there is no demand at all right now. I've seen for sale signs up for months and I live 5 minutes outside a major city

>> No.25816333

Land > Housing. If you’re buying land that has a newly constructed house in it you are getting ripped off. Buy a plot and build your own house.

>> No.25816339
File: 382 KB, 980x608, 1595949446673.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
25816339

>>25816034
>And yet demand for real estate is greatly exceeding supply.
And the stock market is through the roof because the economy is doing so great!

Face it, the demand is coming from China and various overseas since the Chinese literally use property as their CD account. Meanwhile, average Americans such as ourselves are being left behind while properties are sitting vacant.

>> No.25816398

>>25815965
>I've been hoarding cash
Oh dear....

>> No.25816510

>>25815318
>bought house in 2013 for 140k
>down payment only 28k
>rates were 3.5% at the time
>mortgage payment is 503/mo
>factoring in inflation, predicted value is 162k

>actual value is 250k
>would need a 50k down payment to buy now
>current mortgage rate is 2.75%
>current monthly payment would be 816/mo

you're full of shit anon

>> No.25816821
File: 890 KB, 1180x787, 1585024291180.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
25816821

>>25816510
What led you to buy a house in 2013 when the housing market bottomed out?

>> No.25817491
File: 78 KB, 1168x450, supply.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
25817491

>>25816287
>Demand exceeding supply
>Wrong, there is no demand at all right now.
There is no debate about demand exceeding supply in real estate right now. You anecdotally seeing for sale signs doesn't mean supply is exceeding demand.
>>25816339
>the demand is coming from China
That doesn't disagree with what I've said.
>>25816072
>why should I use this index to take decision of buying / not buying?
Interest (mortgage) rates and inflation determine how much money people actually pay for their houses. Interest rates were triple what they are now in 2007 leading up to the subprime lending crash.
At 2% the current interest rates are at or lower than officially reported inflation, and officially reported inflation is a heavily qualified metric that tends to understate real inflation.
Around 25% of all US dollars ever created were created in 2020. The consequences of that will become more apparent as spending continues to recover and speed up from last year's drop, but two relevant effects of high inflation are A) reducing the real value cost of debt (if you owe $200K but $200K is now the price for a loaf of bread then you hardly owe anything at all and can easily pay it off) and B) increasing the market value of real assets (when US currency is being rapidly debased and losing its buying power real assets like land and property become safe havens to keep your wealth in to make sure it doesn't get wiped out).
>>25816510
>2013
Anon, look at the chart:
>>25814920
2013 is the lowest point on the entire chart. You're agreeing with it, not disagreeing with it.

>> No.25817845

>>25814217
This. Or are you planning on swing trading your home? You basically can't predict the crash, so what is the point

>> No.25818690

>>25816821
2013 wasn't the bottom. The bottom was 2011 and the only people who could buy at that time were all cash buyers because the properties were all foreclosures and the banks wanted cash. 2013 the market was up 20% already from 2012 and every house I bid on had multiple offers over asking.

>> No.25818729

>>25817491
Your dumbass chart doesn't match reality

>> No.25818783

OP,
Location is all that matters. If you buy in the US, you will surely get rekt

>> No.25818811

>more and more people on this earth
>less and less place to build
>housing market will crash!

nah

>> No.25818816
File: 291 KB, 614x1020, 1609826143123.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
25818816

Be real with me bros
I have the option to buy a house in America or buy an upscale apartment in St. Petersburg

Will America be around in 30 years?

>> No.25818882

>>25818816
If you mean St. Petersburg, Russia - it will be a great store of value but who are you going to sell it down the line?

>> No.25818937

>>25818882
I mean I want to live in it
Fuck """selling"""
I just want to know if I'll get fucked by the government

I know I'll get fucked by the American government but I need a guessing time table

>> No.25818962

>>25815318
buying a house when interest rates are low is for retards. There is no inflation.

>> No.25818992

>>25813850
Never. We are in the biggest fiat bubble in history. Everything is inflating, stocks, crypto, real estate, bonds, pokemon cards. Just buy whatever

>> No.25819052

>>25818811
Yeah more and more people in Africa and India. All other places on earth are going through a population bust. Even Mexico is having a drop in births. If you FOMOing into real estate in N. America, Europe, or E Asia you will get rekt.

>> No.25819069

>>25818992
It's kind of funny to me that people can be all in on bitcoin and then think the housing market will crash.

Basically anything that there's a finite amount of is going to keep increasing in value as more and more dollars are printed and inflation creeps in.

>> No.25819070

>>25815318

>. In real value terms it has never been less expensive to take on a mortgage

Sure if you're a stupid Pajeet in a coastal city who doesn't mind literally throwing away hundreds of thousands of dollars on property overvalued by at least 30%

Housing prices might not crash BUT what if there's a market correction? What happens if your precious portfolio gets sliced in half? If you get laid off? Mortgage is due anyway, bitch lasagne

>> No.25819117

>>25818729
It matches the example you gave you idiot. Why would you pick the low point on the chart, say it's lower than a higher point on the chart, and then try to pitch that as an argument against the chart?

>> No.25819133

>>25819069
True, true...Bitcoin has a great ROI, but just ignore the risk and especially ignore all other assets out there.

Housing market right now is the last one who will implode.

>> No.25819141

>>25818962
>There is no inflation.
hurrr durrrr

>> No.25819189

>>25818937
it will depend on the state. I would say buy a house in eastern or southern europe, those are pretty much the only non-pozzed places left.

>> No.25819273

>>25819070
>what if there's a market correction?
Then interest rates would be higher. That's the point.
>What happens if your precious portfolio gets sliced in half?
>If you get laid off?
Yes anon, housing market bad because you might lose money in not housing market. What are you even trying to communicate, mongoloid?
>Mortgage is due anyway, bitch lasagne
Wow, I totally thought you could just take a house and not pay for it. Thank you for correcting the record.

>> No.25819423

>>25819141
enjoy staying poor

>> No.25820028

>>25813850
Are you a burger? If so keep in mind that you'll see unprecedented immigration in the coming four years with Biden so pressure on the housing market will increase and further inflate the bubble (actually it's probably true for yuros as well). They'll probably keep the ship afloat untill Biden gets a second term. So yeah, buy a house now but sell it before Biden's second term.

>> No.25820152

>>25819423
No u

>> No.25820286

>>25819273

I'm trying to communicate housing prices are disconnected from reality no matter the fucking pocket change you save on interest, you triggered dumb Asiatic fuck

>> No.25820291

>>25818962
>housing market explodes
>stocks explode during a global pandemic
>crypto explodes
>hurr durr my milk isnt gettin expensive yet so no inflation here

what is asset inflation? for 500 pls

>> No.25820361

>>25813850
Can I get a mortgage if I get hired to a job and show them two pay stubs? I haven’t worked since 2018 but I want a house >>25813850

>> No.25820383

>>25813870
Hi Bear Stearns!

>> No.25820787

>>25820361
You can try, but they'll go thru your credit history and the whole nine yards. They want to see that you can afford the mortgage.

>> No.25821417

>>25818816
In St Petersburg, is the apartment recent or one of those from 40 years ago?
Also, have into account that even though the USD is shitting the bed, it will probably still increase in relation to the rubble in the next decades.
What I mean by this:
>buy American house
>wait 10 years
>inflation + exchange rate happens
>you can now sell the house and buy two apartments in st Petersburg

Roughly, of course.

>> No.25821494

>>25816030
Yeah, and then after that crash they did everything in their power to make sure that won't happen again. Get it?

>> No.25821515

>>25821494
u dumb right?

>> No.25821572

>>25821494
>they did everything in their power to make sure that won't happen again
>they did everything in their power
what did they?

>> No.25821781

>>25813850
i feel like i can take it and my heart will cave in so i must hedge with something absolutely - safeX

>> No.25822474

>>25813870
this