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/biz/ - Business & Finance


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>> No.22239744

Please reassure me about the market

>> No.22239753

>>22239744
Goddamit....2nd for cunny

>> No.22239761
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22239761

>> No.22239779

I managed to sell all my TQQQ, FNGU and NAIL at the right time yesterday and saved my portfolio from going into the red. What are the plays next week, bros? Just start buying more leveraged stuff like that and continue the great tech bull run? Rotate into recovery plays like HIBL/banks/airlines/etc? Precious metals??

>> No.22239788

>>22239744
We had a bit of a recovery end of day. We might have a couple of slight negative days in the Nasdaq, but nothing like Thursday next week.

>> No.22239793

I think I’ll just start automatically taking profits after 20% gains on everything. It always happens the same way: I buy, it goes up 20 to 30%, crabs back down, then instantly mega dumps to -10%

>> No.22239840

Wait a minute, selling covered calls on the indexes is a meme. You need in the ballpark of ~$18k-$35k to buy 100 shares of VTI, QQQ, or SPY, but the premium of ATM covered calls (if you're greedy, which will probably get assigned) is a few hundred bucks, so you'll have to do that for like years to get enough premium to afford another 100 shares.

>> No.22239855
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22239855

When will I profit again.

>> No.22239863

>biz is bearish on TSLA

so that means it will go up tuesday, $500 by end of week

>> No.22239876

>>22239719
>That news about Tesla not being included in the S&P afterhours are not great for Tesla.
please don't assume I put money in Tesla. I'd sooner put money in AAPL since Apple Silicon and 5G I actually believe in and frankly I don't like that the stock split made it hard to buy into AAPL now since valuations went up without actual fundamentals.

>> No.22239907

>>22239840
And this is assuming I'm using the stock market to avoid wage slaving so I'm not rich enough to put another $1000 a week. Though if you sell ATM calls or puts you benefit the most from it crabbing.

The one time I put all my savings into VTSAX in 2018 the market dipped and took like a year to recover so it was no different than having it in a checking account.

>> No.22239948

>>22239744
i had like $1480 cash just sitting in my drawer I forgot about for a year that I'm depositing today for some fun gamble plays next week
don't fear the dip. If your shit is in stocks that are actually solid, it's all just noise and you were never going to take your profit after just a few months of holding anyways.

lol at you if you bought at the top you FOMO retard, everyone else who bought even as late as July (way past all the news that proved tech continued to grow in corona lockdown) are all cozy right now.

>> No.22239952

I bought the fake dip yesterday and now I'm so fucked.

How do I get suicidal thoughts out of my head?

>> No.22239958
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22239958

>>22239907
I'm in the stock market to avoid inflation. This dip/crash is nothing compared to the coming inflation.

>> No.22239973

>>22239793
If I want to be somewhat active I'd just sell when the index breaks the upper bollinger band and buy the dip when it touches the moving average. That seems to be pretty predictable.

>> No.22240039

>>22239840
of course it is. If covered calls were really free money, that would be considered a market inefficiency, and investment banks would pile onto it until the price of the premiums make it not really worth it. You know, they have actual mathematicians and engineers running stochastic processes to estimate this stuff.
>>22239907
>The one time I put all my savings into VTSAX in 2018 the market dipped
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dollarcostaveraging.asp

>> No.22240063

I bought what I assumed was a dip for $net on Thursday. Boy did I fuck up bad

...Still have not sold it though

>> No.22240098

>>22239744
there are sources out there saying some hedgefunds could not sell their bags in-time on friday. be prepared anon.

>> No.22240099

Anyone else holding NIO? What do you think?

>> No.22240130

>>22240099
I think it will go back up. Honestly would like to buy leaps on it

>> No.22240139

>>22240098
>could not sell their bags in-time on friday
Literally how? There was nearly a full hour where everything actually went green.

>> No.22240177
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22240177

>>22239728
Is it possible to get rich day trading Bitcoin? Shits so volatile and there's no day trading limits

>> No.22240189

>>22240130
I bought at like 12.5 in July, and sold not long ago, but I couldn't resist getting back into it so here I am again, those price targets look good but I dunno what to believe anymore

>> No.22240194

>>22239840
But the premiums are money made on top of the stocks growth.

So you can do TQQQ using the 20-day SMA for gains, while selling 1-week calls for $100 on top of it .

>> No.22240210
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22240210

Will pizza stocks tank once pizzagate is believes by a critical mass?

>> No.22240228

uh are there any GME degenerates here right now?
I'm getting incredibly bullish the more I read about the developments on Gamestop over the past year and how this has completely gone under most people's radars because they think Gamestop is going to go bankrupt soon. I thought the same because i fucking hate Gamestop but the numbers tell something entirely.

i dunno if I'll long GME but i'm definitely tempted to buy more GME for the short-term for shit and giggles.

>> No.22240241
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22240241

Well all my money is in SHLL and I held so I’m still doing pretty good

>> No.22240246

>>22239958
What are you buying? Tech? Gold miners?

>> No.22240253

>>22240139
there isn't enough liquidity in the last hour for them to sell

>> No.22240255

Why does everyone seem.convinced we're tanking again next week, instead of the traditional post-holiday weekend rally?

>> No.22240280

>>22239744
I think we will keep dumping until the elections
>>22240255
Tech is still over pumped. A correction is healthy. Altho I could’ve said this last month kek.

>> No.22240335

>>22240255
Because the Fed hasn't printed more yet. A fundamental-baseless market fueled by speculation only operates as long as the Fed feeds it money. The market is entirely dependent on the Fed, not because these overpriced stocks will produce a profit worth its price in the short to mid term.

>> No.22240348

>>22239948
>lol at you if you bought at the top you FOMO retard

I started FOMOing TQQQ. Is that a decent FOMO stock that will at least skyrocket again?

>> No.22240351

>>22240241
Sold my calls mid-50s before the dip and grabbed more warrants in the last hour Friday. Should be a solid week, hopefully we get the merger date very soon.

>> No.22240356

Where do all the billions go from the institutions that sold the top and caused the dip? There is no alternative. They'll just be reallocated somewhere else in the market.

>> No.22240364

>>22239719
oh yeah TSLA is turbofucked by the S&P rejection. but most anons here agree that TSLA shouldn't really be included in the FAGMAANN designation of stocks, it's more like a really expensive penny stock. it'll probably continue tanking but i don't think, say, AAPL will. AAPL and maybe tech in general at best will crab.

it is interesting to consider crashes though. i've been looking through AMD's history these past two years and the most it has ever dropped before recovering was around 50%. the main thing im trying to consider with my optimization of dip buying is what are reasonable targets for dip buying and what are reasonable profit taking areas? obviously sometimes it retraces 100% and then goes higher, do i just accept missing that so that i can start my dip buying from scratch again at some point or is it greedy to hold longer when it might drop again? is it really best to, say, split my money 5 ways and buy every 10% drop? or maybe split my money 10 ways and buy every 5% drop? hard to say. but 50% seems pretty reasonable for a max "even if this crashes it'll still be fine" sort of deal. then a full recovery would be a 25% gain at that point. i still want to be able to take advantage of smaller dips though.

>>22240228
i've got 300 shares and have been considering increasing that to 500 in all honesty. but im only gonna risk a couple of thousand on it just in case. honestly they probably will go bankrupt eventually unless the make some major changes, but they should be good for the new consoles coming out creating a squeeze play at least. that's all im in it for im not holding long term or anything.

>> No.22240451

https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/gd3nri/the_psychology_of_fear_why_a_big_gay_short_isnt/fpfexwj/

Thoughts?

>> No.22240462

>>22240356

Puts

>> No.22240485

>>22240451
It makes sense to me but I'm a retard so that makes me think there must be something wrong about it

>> No.22240508

>>22240228
I’m going to buy so many chicken tenders with my GME bucks after they short squeeze

>> No.22240571

>>22240177
Possible but not likely. Crypto is all gambling, don't let anyone tell you otherwise. That said a little gamble every now and then can be fun, just remember it's only money.

>> No.22240616 [DELETED] 
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22240616

AUY

>> No.22240617

>>22240364
>i've got 300 shares and have been considering increasing that to 500 in all honesty. but im only gonna risk a couple of thousand on it just in case. honestly they probably will go bankrupt eventually unless the make some major changes, but they should be good for the new consoles coming out creating a squeeze play at least. that's all im in it for im not holding long term or anything.
im not holding long either but the bounce back is fucking massive here.
They already have more cash than debt right now, and looks like they already sold off their debt. I'm also assuming that they're going to revise their losses from 2018-2020 to be tax write offs. CARES act lets them go back as far as 2013 (five years back) to recover those paid taxes. I'm a brainlet and i can't really figure out how much additional cash flow Gamestop is going to get as a result but i'm assuming it's massive as Gamestop was a giant then. Or maybe i'm just falling too hard for shills on seekingalpha

But hey, the shill articles from February and April do bring up some very good points.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4336290-gamestop-shareholders-must-call-in-shares-april-20th-to-vote
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4323483-gamestop-fallacy-digital-shifts-will-dwarf-console-sales
the only question is will Gamestop actually execute Q2 on Sept 9 as we hope it will?

>> No.22240637

>>22239840
>>22239840
Depends on market conditions, you can also sell puts if you're a cheeky cunt, but perhaps on cheaper stocks. Of course that's sketchy hypothetically, but ultimately not any more sketchy than holding stocks.

Depending on how active you are, you can also use big oscillations like yesterday to sell and then resell higher.

If you want an example of really good premiums, Discover had weeklies that were fetching a handsome price for OTM calls, $100+. If you reinvested that, you could make pretty good money relatively quick if shit

>> No.22240655

>>22240451
This is widely known though, seems a bit too obvious for it to happen now. But ay, if it happens it happens, if we continue dumping next week then there's a chance for a major correction over the next few months. Keep in mind though that events are different and the fed are in the game heavily now compared to before

>> No.22240708

>>22240508
How much you gambling? I have around 600 shares right now and I kinda want to double it on Tuesday if the squeeze hopefully doesn't start yet. Worst case scenario I lose out like what, -30% downside I can recover from? At the potentially immense reward of 1000%+?

i'm prob not the only one reading way too many shill DDs. It is definitely true that bears have gone too far and deluded on Gamestop just from the single point that a company that still has 6 to 8 billion in annual revenues should be worth way more than ~500 million market cap (or in reality, much less? Because of the share buybacks?).
honestly this is the reason why I'm depositing all the spare emergency cash I had just lying around the house. I mean I haven't been using them for years, just sitting around becoming more useless day by day.

>> No.22240736

>>22240617
>and looks like they already sold off their debt.
i mean they already sold off their corporate jet.
but they did also refinance their debts. I'm too brainlet to understand SEC forms though.

>> No.22240737

Fuck the Japs

>> No.22240761

>>22240451
0% reserve requirement. Plus the Fed will reopen their repo, since it's at $0, they'll justify other actions as needed by indicating that these institutions were healthy and well behaved prior to the shutdowns, and so it wasn't their faults. They will keep liquidity up and guarantee credit flows. The banks know they're a willing participant right now.

Question is: are the banks being retards right now or are they making megabucks since they can go full retard? Hypothetically, as I read it, they're allowed infinite leverage with 0% reserve requirements.

>> No.22240885

>>22240761
>infinite leverage with 0% reserve requirements
>unprecendented situation and highly volatile markets
>delicious candy

>> No.22240894

>>22240616
This thing has some pics where it almost passes as a woman, but this one just looks like a gross dudes ass.

>> No.22240911
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22240911

Not a single stock has moved in hours, guys im scared whats going on?

>> No.22240914

>>22240451

I agree there won't be a big crash like march, it will be a crash to around $10k nasdaq for a few months, then bull trap to ATHs, then a slow bleed for then next 10 years until everything is down 50-75% and everyone hates stocks again. Then it will chop for another 20 years. If humans are still around in 2050 that is when people will have forgotten about how much they lost in stocks in the 2020s and start to buy again. It will build up for 10 years and 2060 will be when stocks are back in fad again. World wars or human extinction could change that prediction.

>> No.22240958

How do I find the real value of a stock?

>> No.22240999

>>22240958
March lows were the market pricing in the apocalypse.

>> No.22241052

>>22240241
I'm selling all mine. It's gonna dip

>> No.22241107

I am not an american so i am not too familiar with your business taxes, but if Gamestop has had losses totaling to over $1 billion in 2019 and 2020 so far, how much cash can they get back from paid taxes since they can go back as far as 2014?

Does that fucking mean that Gamestop is going to recover $350 million in paid taxes this year? They already have more cash than debt at their current situation. What the fuck am I forgetting to consider? I feel like im getting a big brain moment but i don't understand this shit enough to connect all the dots confidently.

>> No.22241115

>>22240911
If they don't move Monday we're really fucked. Sell everything, grab your bugout bag, and go innawoods.

>> No.22241120

>>22240999
No I mean what numbers do I look at to find the intrinsic value of a stock.

>> No.22241149

>>22241120
try looking at the value of the stock to find the value of the stock

>> No.22241186

>>22241149
Yeah okay I knew i shouldn't ask zoomers on biz

>> No.22241194

>>22240210
Nah.

>> No.22241204

>>22240999
unironically this^. people literally thought the world was collapsing due to an uncontained pandemic killing 10-15% of people it infected lol. had a 40% correction. it's back to near ATHs because people realized it's the flu and mostly kills old people/people with pre-existing conditions, IE; they died from something else, while having covid-19 as well.


anyone with a brain realizes -they- are going to crash the market in late september/early october, to prevent trump from being able to run on any semblance of a victory lol. this is common sense, be prepared to buy the dip and shut the fuck up. this isnt rocket science.

>> No.22241210

>>22241186
It might be frustrating but that guy gave you the closest thing there is to a correct answer

>> No.22241212

>>22239728
Do you think real estate and construction stocks are good to look at right now with commies burning the US to the ground

>> No.22241243

>>22239840
Assume it costs 25k to buy 100 shares and you average $100 premiums on OTM weeklies. That's $5200 a year or a ~20% annual return WITHOUT any appreciation.

>> No.22241261

>>22241204
I with ya bro! Got my tinfoil on tight!

>> No.22241275

Its really fucking me up that $7 next week turned out to be a real thing

>> No.22241280
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22241280

>>22241149
Hmmm. Yes. The value of the stock is the value of the stock.

>> No.22241288

>>22241204
>>22241210
Im just trying to find how I van value a stock outside of a crashed/bubbled.msrket So i know when I'm buying low or high. Ill just google it. Also yeah, I'm ready for the big dip.

>> No.22241303

>>22240451
wow it's interesting to look at the original thread from that post and read what people thought would happen and what actually happened. i bet they never expected the tech bull run we've had.

>> No.22241304

>>22240356
For now it seems to be just cash pending further developments. I expect another jolt up after the panic selling subsides. Job numbers from last week were better than expected, unemployment down from previous month. My general feel is more bubble up and pop and bubble up and pop. Priority things for me remain airlines, cruises, industrial metals, and spy/qqq to round off the edges. Precious shinies i'm not so sure about as the dollar keeps threatening to pull a short term bullish reversal.

>> No.22241306

This is just the beginning. Prepare for the Dow to go below 25k

>> No.22241330

>>22241288
youre as dense as a rock.

>> No.22241333

>>22240911
Stonk marjet broken everybody go home.

>> No.22241365

>>22241288
Okay but suppose you Google it and Google says the stock you're looking at is really worth more than the current price. If everybody accepted that then how long do you think the stock would remain "undervalued"

>> No.22241373

>>22241306
*above 35k

>> No.22241392

>>22240616
How do I short this thing's existence?

>> No.22241401

>>22241186
That's really the answer, the whole theory behind the stock market is that everything is priced in. It's called efficient market theory. It's retarded.

There is no correct answer though. Like how the fuck do you value an IP? A bunch of forecasting, which will be wrong inevitably. And how do you value tangible assets, say a slightly used fax machine? How do you value business, and no, it's not about actual returns, there's billion dollar companies that have net negative returns consistently. It's speculation that tilts the whole operation upwards, and depending on how speculated it is (TSLA) will determine the profile of its historical price curve.

The best you can probably do is a simple MA. Of course this works until it doesn't. There's pricing models, too, also broken, especially now.

>> No.22241420

we broke below the six-month support line.

It will go lower so prepare

>> No.22241444

>>22241420
On what?

>> No.22241445
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22241445

7 years ago when I started investing I unironically googled "what stocks should i buy" and followed advice from one of the top search results from motley fool

Funnily enough one of them was AAPL that I eventually made 250% on. I held all the way until late last year when I sold out of almost everything to buy physical PMs / miners

Anybody else used to be a complete retard? Be honest, we were all there once upon a time. Some of you are there now. Share your stories

>> No.22241478

>>22240958
'Fair value' is an actual metric. Nobody pays any attention to that but it does exist and can be calculated. The only thing i do in regards to fa like this is to check p/b ratio against eps. If p/b is negative on a consistently profitable company (positive eps most quarters) and has been panic sold off on index dump, you should consider trading that stock. Notable from this year fir me was DOOO, sea doo and ski doo people, which had p/b of -4 or so on the spring lows. I got a piece of that bounce but didn't stay in as long as i should have.

>> No.22241483

>>22241401
If the market is 100% efficient, then the value of the stock market is only limited by the money supply, because all gains from now until the heat death of the universe would be priced in, making the value of the stock market infinity. I'll take my PhD in Economics now.

>> No.22241488

Who here watching the demise of QQQ

>> No.22241493

>>22241365
>Okay but suppose you Google it and Google says the stock you're looking at is really worth more than the current price.
Then I buy because it'll correct to its real value which is higher than I bought it for.
>If everybody accepted that then how long do you think the stock would remain "undervalued"
Not sure but eventually It would correct and I would profit, and I could sell when I calculate it to be overvalued.

>> No.22241497

>>22241445
I bought BLNK and lost money on 3 different occasions

>> No.22241502

>the fact that friday arrested its drop and regained everything it lost by the end of the day is actually a sign of the end goys
Bears are so worthless.

>> No.22241532

>>22241445
Big retard hours over here. I downloaded robinhood on March 24th and made some nice gains on tickers being shilled in this general. Dont really know shit about anything

>> No.22241538

>>22241445
i bought SGMO last year at $12 in July. ended up averaging down over the next 6 months with literally all of my money and sold for a small profit in December at ASH (you can tell what day that is because it's the top where it then fucking craters).

feel free to look at a daily chart around that time. i was down something like 30% at one point, good times, good times.

>> No.22241539

>>22241445
I'm still a retard

>> No.22241574

>>22241445
>Anybody else used to be a complete retard?
Yes. In the beginning i did charting with line graph, no concept of ta, no concept of fa, trying to trade on gut and feel. Even worse, i made a lot if money on a series of flukes at the start. And lost all of those gains and then some more for good measure.

>> No.22241579

>>22241204
Trump is a retard but he is blessed to live a country full of bigger retards

>> No.22241585

>>22241493
Supposing the information is freely available how likely is it that youre early to the party vs the guy buying in after someone else already got there? Those are the two sides of your scenario and you can't be both

>> No.22241603

>>22241445
I have pretty much the exact same story. I looked up "What stocks to buy" and found some article saying ROKU had potential to become a FAANG stock, so I bought it. Finally became profitable after a year. Then I kind of found out about NIO on my own and made $1,000 and slowly my confidence has been rising. I am still very new and inexperienced, but at least I know the bare minimum now.

>> No.22241625

>>22241478
Thanks this is some of what I was after.

>> No.22241650

The market should never be closed.
The market closing on weekends and at night just supports the Jews.

>> No.22241661

>>22241120
Revenue, recurrent profit, non-recurrent profit (i.e. store chain made a profit selling real estate, that's not necessarily good), EBITDA, debt

>> No.22241662

>>22241585
You'd be surprised how long it takes news to get around, the worst part is you never know if you're late or early.

>> No.22241666

>>22241650
Trade forex then.

>> No.22241673

>>22241445
Oh, I'm still there.
I just check out whatever stocks are posted here or are recommended in various articles.
Lately, I checked out which stocks are included in various 'Growth' ETFs and try to determine which seem to be the most promising and cover different sectors.

>> No.22241684

>>22241661
Thanks

>> No.22241704

>>22241666
based satan
how much harder is trading forex than stocks I'm kind of scared to start
which broker would you recommend

>> No.22241741

>>22241662
No doubt. Thats exactly what I'm trying to get across. All we know is the price history and the price that recent buyers and sellers agreed on

>> No.22241788

>>22241445
>Bought 3 apple shares for 500 each pre split
>Bought 13 more for 132 each on Tuesday
Now bagholding and praying for Powell to give us one more month of good time. At least i learned to not join in high when everyone is euphoric. Same thing happening for me with bitcoin right now. I was always pussy sitting on cash and only now decided to put my money somewhere after all inflation talks.

>> No.22241789

So what so e of you are suggesting is that I should forget fa and focus on ta?

>> No.22241796

>>22240228
I bought from $24/share and averaged down all the way down.

A few scenarios...

>Company makes a lot of money next year
Stock goes up but how much depends on how good the earnings are.
>Buyout by RC Ventures
If they are already at 10%+ ownership they will need to disclose in a few days. Right before disclosure or right after they might launch a buyout bid.
>Ryan Cohen becomes CEO
Stock goes up because its no longer led by a boomer, and boomers will think that Ryan will make zoomers shop at Gamestop. Stock shoot ups.

So if any of the following scenarios play out, we may see some huge price action on the way up with the amount of shorts out there.

The worst case scenario is that Q4 isn't that good and the stock market is crashing in the meantime, and Micheal Burry or Ryan Cohen sell around Q4 earnings.

>> No.22241806

>>22241684
Look, no doubt knowing those things is better than not knowing them, but consider even with that knowledge are you guaranteed to be right about price movements more often than not?

>> No.22241824

>>22241704
>how much harder is trading forex than stocks

there's no volume and no intrinsic value, and the big banks control most of the price action through manipulation. have fun!

>> No.22241841

>>22241585
I think the point is that you can’t google fair value, you have to calculate it yourself and even then you have to throw in some supposition for good measure to decide if the company has a favorable outlook or not.

>> No.22241849

>>22241445
I started investing when I was fairly "old" and had my natural sense of critical thinking developed, but I did read those kind of articles aswell. To be fair though, back then they basically recommended stocks like MSFT, Apple, Amazon, etc etc.. it's dumb to do these days but back then it wasn't too shabby, obviously. The dumbest shit I have done though is the fact that I bought Bitcoin back in mid 2013 and used up roughly 50% of it on random garbage online purchases, the 50% I had left jumpstarted my trading/investing "career" but I could have had double the money which is just sad. Considering I sold everything I had when Bitcoin was at 18.4k.. the 50% I wasted on actual garbage was in the tens of thousands

>> No.22241858

>>22241806
it helps for long-term plays not for short-term short-attention spam zoomer plays

>> No.22241868

>>22241824
Just do whatever would benefit the banks so their crumbs trickle down to you. Ezpz.

>> No.22241884

>>22241806
Honest probably not but I want to have a higher chance of making the correct play

>>22241841
Pretty much how I see it.

>> No.22241914

>>22241789
TA is a complete meme. It's all confirmation bias.

>> No.22241918

>>22241849
How can you spend 10,000 on garbage? What did you buy?

>> No.22241924

>>22241445
Im still a massive retard. I lost $3000 on puts yesterday. Im going to try to get it back by being smarter in the next two weeks

>> No.22241928

How is there no volume in forex? The market is way bigger than the stock market and futures. A lot more liquid.

>> No.22241931

>>22241914
This. Your brain will reinforce your bias on what is happening via TA. Its likely a net negative impact on returns

>> No.22241935

>>22241918
Bitcoin.

>> No.22241945

>>22241928
look at a stock chart. you see how there is a volume subgraph? that doesn't exist on forex.

>> No.22241951

>>22241914
That's what Im seeing, but even then it drives the market. What my goal is, is to understand fa better so I can read bubbles, sell off, and then buy during the correction. i don't have to know when a correction happens, I just need to understand that it will eventually.

>> No.22241955
File: 2.97 MB, 640x360, chika.webm [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22241955

When holding options, how do you come up with a price target to exit the trade? I'll be completely honest, I've been a absolute retard gambling with weeklies and have both lost and gained money. But my ultimate failure is greed. The other day I was up 3x on one of my options and I told myself "that's not enough" and held it all the way to the price I purchased the option. I'm taking this weekend as an opportunity to refine my trading strategy, but I would like some input from others. Do you have different price targets for weekly, monthly, and LEAP options? Or do you hold the same strategy for each?

>> No.22241973

>>22241849
Same thing happened to me. I used bitcoin to buy drugs online pre-Silk Road and when I got sober just left whatever I still had in a wallet until 2017. I ended up with like 50k but I could have made hundreds of thousands. That’s the price of being a degenerate though, I look at it now as an incredibly valuable lesson. I lost more in potential profit than I ever spent on drugs directly. Been completely sober now for almost ten years and this is one of the biggest reasons I would never drink or get high again.

>> No.22241981
File: 12 KB, 350x240, 22156237-DB01-4A38-A423-98AA6A67CC0E.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22241981

Anybody buying calls on Oshkosh to hedge against Horse getting blown out? Premiums seem very low for something that has a good chance of getting a large portion of the contract.

>> No.22241982

>>22241955
Depends. I do it by feel. Usually around 50% up or down is a good point. Sold bear call spreads on fri when about 65% up

>> No.22241984

>>22241931
I disagree. You shouldn't make concrete decisions off TA, but understand that there are people who do and thus it can have a short term to mid term affect on price. Overall the fundamentals and growth potential/dividend potential should be your focus depending on what your goals are.

>> No.22241986

>>22240708
$200,000 in OTM calls

>> No.22242011

>>22241955
I just lost $800 on 10 puts on QQQ. I was up 150% and held for the same reason. My new strategy is going to be submit a limit sell at my purchase price directly after purchasing, then upon any massive beneficial candle, sell 50-100% of the contracts instantly.

>> No.22242013

>>22241955
If you’re playing weeklies you either need to day trade or be damn sure the trend is continuing your direction because theta will fuck you hard. I’m not autistic enough to look at the other Greeks but theta is the most important always buy more time if you can. I personally sell anytime I’m down over 50% at that point I always cut my loses and move on.

>> No.22242028

Anyone notice that crypto dumped and hour or so before NASDAQ dumped? Any theories why? Maybe it could be a signal for further moves?

>> No.22242031

>>22241984
I follow the chart but attach meaningful reasoning (even insane ones as the market does that) to every move. If im trading a stock ive been following it for a year min

>> No.22242035

>>22241955
How agressive you are with price targets depends on how you feel about volatility compared to the market and how far out your contract expires. Watch some Institute of Trading videos on Youtube, they explain this a lot better than anyone here can.

>> No.22242038

>>22241914
I use pretty basic TA as a tool to decide entry and exit but I still agree with you. No matter how much you try you’ll always get false positives and the like but when you’re right it’s easy to think that you were 100% sure the while time. However, I think that having a set of rules to trade by increases my success even if I’m not right every time.

>> No.22242044

>>22241918
I spent it when Bitcoin was at roughly $150-300, but if I had kept it and sold it when I sold everything else it would have been tens of thousands

>> No.22242048

>>22241984
The only time there is a semblance of TA is on very low float penny pumps. And even then you're risking taking a loss or being stuck holding shit. Buy companies that are reputable. Or at least more reputable than jewish pill companies and chicom pumps.

>> No.22242049

>>22241796
>and Micheal Burry or Ryan Cohen sell around Q4 earnings.
I definitely prefer not to hold past the potential short squeeze. It's clear to me that Burry is only in it for the bigger squeeze when he sold just enough shares to go under 5% so he can dump without disclosure.

As for Cohen, my impression is he sees GME as an incredibly undervalued foundation to start up a massive e-commerce niche in vidya. He's already done it before against Amazon so that makes two board members involved with Chewy (Symancyk is on the board as well) that have experience to make large-scale fulfillment centers that can compete profitably against Amazon in specialized markets.

about Reggie, is he still even with Gamestop? I haven't heard him do anything at all with them. That would be massive just for hype charisma alone. The elements are all there for Gamestop to make a comeback but it terrifies me with Sept 9 is still a coinflip. I guess I could cope and could still reasonably long GME if there isn't a squeeze short-term?

>> No.22242072

>>22241951
VIX spiking seems like a pretty good indicator of a big red dildo within a few days.

>> No.22242099

>>22241986
holy fuck
post proof you degenerate gambler. Probably end up as /smg/'s richest ever if the coinflip's right.

And here I am worrying about adding a few extra thousands into GME shares.

>> No.22242104

>>22241884
You seem like you have a decent head on your shoulders, you'll probably do fine. I'm off to do some yard work but best of luck to you.

>> No.22242108

I followed Buffet into Barrick Gold. I was going to go Newmont, but liked that Barrick is also involved in copper and seems to have slightly more free cash flow. Anyone else buying miners? Also looking to pickup SCCO

>> No.22242111

>>22242072
Vix max is before an upswing though. Its the early vix move that is a warning

>> No.22242116

>>22242028
High demand for dollars causes a liquidation of all securities?

>> No.22242124
File: 37 KB, 645x773, 1520838821414.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22242124

>>22240914
>I agree there won't be a big crash like march, it will be a crash to around $10k nasdaq for a few months, then bull trap to ATHs, then a slow bleed for then next 10 years until everything is down 50-75% and everyone hates stocks again. Then it will chop for another 20 years. If humans are still around in 2050 that is when people will have forgotten about how much they lost in stocks in the 2020s and start to buy again. It will build up for 10 years and 2060 will be when stocks are back in fad again. World wars or human extinction could change that prediction.

Kys.

>> No.22242130

>>22241986
Based squeezer
We need everyone to buy otm weeklies on a shorted stock

>> No.22242131

>>22242038
Yeah, you still need some sort of plan in regards to buying. At the very least try to see what direction the wind is blowing before buying a bunch.

>> No.22242165

>>22241579
no one cares about trump or biden, we're here to make money, either faggot is conducive to that depending on what you invest in, and when.

>> No.22242169

Right now I just want my high iv covered call premiums to cash in.

>> No.22242212

>>22242072
Or just those once in a while small spikes and than back to norm
I bought the dip thinking it will be that but guess we'll see lol

>> No.22242228

>>22242104
Im just OCD and analytical as fuck. Trying to make use of it. Thanks though. There's always something to learn here moat of the time.

>> No.22242235

>>22241955
>and held it all the way to the price I purchased the option

"Haha I'm in profit time to see how far this can go"
"Oh okay a dip let's wait for it to get better"
"Okay I'm at a loss now let's wait until it goes back to break even to jump out"
"oof okay it's gonna dip back to where I want soon.."
"AHHHHHH GET OUT"

>> No.22242250

>>22242116
High demand for what though? Holding cash for a crash?

>> No.22242253

>>22242131
Yeah, I would say I use it reluctantly because I don’t have a great alternative. It’s just a part of the overall strategy though. I think the more important aspect is profit taking and risk management which seems to get overlooked a lot here. I’m not great at it yet but the post-corona market has forced me to get a lot better. I’ve missed out on plenty of profit selling too early but I’ve kept all but about $2000 dollars (out of 35k or so total profit) by selling when I think we’re overheated so I don’t really mind.

>> No.22242269

I think housing and bond markets are bigger bubbles than stocks. Especially bonds

>> No.22242270

>>22242048
i still trade chart patterns with predefined risk but only intraday. besides that the only thing i've found particularly effective is incrementally DCA'ing through dips of companies that are fundamentally sound and have a bright future (i.e. i believe that they will continue to make new ATH's), companies that everyone knows about and wants to own. i trade tech mostly because im in tech for my job and i understand it compared to other industries.

basically you either use stop losses and try to win more than you lose, or you DCA dip buying and depending on how much it dips you may have to wait a while for it to recover. i don't think anything else works consistently.

>> No.22242284

>>22241824
>there's no volume
You can monitor the volume on the pair for the trades being made on the forex exchange you're using. It's not the complete picture but some forex traders do use that data. The rest of what you wrote is correct. Forex people seem to be almost exclusively TA.

>> No.22242300
File: 465 KB, 1200x684, 30 yo anime boomer.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22242300

People of /smg/ only the Teachings of the Boomer can save you from the impending crash.

>buy America
>buy old
>buy safe
>hold for the next 10-20 years

>> No.22242307

>>22242250
Well if the fed's printing doesn't work and you get deflation

>> No.22242345

>>22241824
>big banks control most of the price action through manipulation
That's blatantly false. It's a giant decentralized market. The Fed can't even control the $ as they would like to.

>> No.22242352

>>22242307
>fed is evil and making dollars worthless and rich even richer
>fed cant hit inflation targets and has no tools to do so for the next two years

>> No.22242353

I’m going to ride TSLA all the way down. I’m too deep in.

>> No.22242380

>>22242353
I'm with you man

>> No.22242381

>>22242250
You have a lot of debt. All your worth is invested. The debt comes due. You need to liquidate some investments to have dollars to make your debt payments. The Fed injected liquidity so people didn't need to liquidate as much.

>> No.22242392

>>22242253
Normally selling would be counter productive since the overall market is always moving upwards so you very likely would end up getting chopped up or making a small profit for much more effort. But seeing how things have rebounded in the way they have and the hyper volatility I don't blame people for taking profit. Especially after the last month of hyper pump. Maybe you're wrong and it'll rally back to where it was a week ago but maybe not.

>> No.22242393
File: 545 KB, 1242x2518, 905FE1C8-8941-498D-BF46-F28E9AE870BD.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22242393

I’m the anon that wrote pic related. You zoomers have got dabbed on pretty badly by the boomers so I’m going to give you all a heads up.

We are ending a disinflationary cycle that we’ve been since 1980. I know your little sugar filled crypto high gainz mentality can’t quite take that time scale in. Here is a link for some light reading on what that is.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/disinflation.asp

The Fed tried to raise rates in 2015 and realised they couldn’t.

https://www.ft.com/content/e1a3a865-1738-40b3-9180-2ca8f886f4f0

“The Fed’s strategy change came as a result of a review of its monetary policy framework that began in early 2019, and was mostly settled before the pandemic hit”

We are now entering a inflationary cycle last seen in the 1970s. The Fed stave off raising rates as much as they can to let inflation rip and inflate away the debt. You want to hedge against that.

Pro tip: That’s not in the FAANGs or Tesla.

We may see higher highs in the next few weeks in the SP&500 but the crash is coming in the next few months.

The QE money this time around will be going into energy and infrastructure, (and oil companies at current lows are part of that).

Start investing accordingly in PMs, miners and BTC and the big dividend paying stocks while they are at these lows and everyone else is looking the other way. They will sell off further too in the crash but not by much. Then let compound re-investment and hedging against inflation do it’s work over the forthcoming years.

>> No.22242418

>>22242352
These two things are consistent, unfortunately. You're removing the time factor. In a recession there's a MASSIVE motivation to move money out of investments and hold liquidity. This causes deflation as money becomes the desired thing to hold. Fed printing is a counter force to this, where the increased money supply makes money holding a lossy business, so money flows into investments. The idea is it stimulates the economy, but it just increases wealth inequality. Businesses that have no business being alive survive because they get free liquidity to pay off super low interest debt that they've stacked so high.
But then, when they have to print the dollar into worthlessness, the inflation absolutely skyrockets. It's a matter where it'll be deflationary at first but then just completely bomb everything when printing stops working.

>> No.22242422
File: 40 KB, 673x595, Capture.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22242422

>>22242393
>the big dividend paying stocks
does TSM count

>> No.22242427

>>22242353
>>22242380
buy a put to hedge your bet

>> No.22242430

>>22240255
This is the bounce before the dump. Look at nasdaq volume on yearly

>> No.22242467

>>22242393
Tech wins
Bonds bull run ends
Inflation hits targets

The biggest problem we have is repubs debt worries in the senate. The second they go full on inflation and pass more spending things launch.

>> No.22242491

>>22242270
If you're going to intraday trade then buying companies you're looking to hold anyway is important. But it's hard to beat holding over the long term since there's no telling if the day you sell is the top or it'll run more. Especially with tech stocks. I'm still waiting to see if the drop will continue next week but tech is a growth focused industry so I personally wouldn't be terribly worried buying in too early or late. Especially if you're going in on indices.

>> No.22242494

The 10b grant for MSFT priced in? Is Amazon's fuss about politically motivated awards going to matter?

>> No.22242533

>it's another "the apocalypse is coming"-post
Can't you just start your own general, sort of like /cvg/ on /pol/? You can spin your paranoid delusions there

>> No.22242546

>>22242422
Yes, but wait for the crash.

>> No.22242562

>>22242533
You have to price in a potential apocalypse when judging market prices, anon.

>> No.22242570

>>22242533
i disagree. They are useful information.
The moment they're gone completely is the moment I take profits and reassess the situation

>> No.22242595

need 3 stocks to put 30k$ on rn

>> No.22242601

>>22242418
But gov debt is sky high all over. Pensions etc.

They need inflation sans old econ spending or they start firing people and we snowball. Fed is much more concerned with gov investors than the billionaire class.

Pension blow up which already is happening causes dominos to fall. Inflation esp hidden, reduces these gov debts considerably.

Investor class who have assets benefit too. Is this wrong? They played right saved and put money intelligently esp those debt free.

Next. We would support these people either way. They arent getting jobs if ppp wasnt enacted. There is very low demand for unskilled low labor right now and unemployment is high. We are still killing off bad businessss and many good in gov fucked areas like ny that never reopen small biz

In any case the doomer or silly goldbug arguments have no ring to them. Just a set of weak srguments with some xoherenece

>> No.22242602

>>22242533
Any time they're on here spamming their shit it should actually comfort you. Be more concerned when they're not here wasting their lives.

>> No.22242613

>>22242393
sure thing, go ahead, buy airlines

I'll laugh so much when airlines start issuing more shares to pay back their debt

>> No.22242626
File: 23 KB, 100x100, 1533131977523.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22242626

>>22242595
NAIL TQQQ FNGU :^)

>> No.22242640

Question, are there any good free resources to view various different option spread patterns simulated against real stocks? Preferably with a dark theme?

>> No.22242649

>>22242392
You’re absolutely right and my normal strategy is 80% buy and hold and 20% bay/swing trading based on capital allocated to each but I also make all of my income through trading so I’m willing to occasionally liquidate and regroup in times of high volatility. I try to make up for this by increasing my swing trading fund to 50% or so in the interim. If I can increase my stack to about 300k I won’t really bother with this anymore and will buy and hold with 200k or so and day trade with the rest, mostly for fun.

>> No.22242674

>>22242601
The thing to realize

#1 the economy is never safe or secure
Having endless savings is fake. Its a lie.

If everyone had 1 million dollars saves guess what the economy would be worse than ever. Its all relative. You having 1 million when most have 20k debt is what creates work

>> No.22242688

>>22242674
The stock market is the biggest scam ever created.

>> No.22242703

>>22242393
So you're saying I'll be able to retire on NAK. Got it.

>> No.22242766

>>22242649
Curious how long you've been trading for a living? I've never seen it to be a truly sustainable strategy.

>> No.22242778

>>22242353
>>22242380
Honest Im still up from January so I'll hold until I break even... No way it can drop that much

>> No.22242786

>>22242613
Who said buy airlines? But yes companies like Lockheed Martin, Rolls Royce that have military, government and maintenance contracts for aircraft yes.

>> No.22242804

reminder that we still haven't escaped deflation

>> No.22242816

>>22242688
Its not a scam. Just that the everyone saying the economy is a house of cards fake shit

Always say to buy shiny rocks and shiny rock diggers as if that shit is edible, gives magic powers, or is anything but imaginary.

As if a block of gold is more useful and real than a company making super tiny computer chips.

>> No.22242867

>>22242570
Honestly I'd say they're not really posting considering

>> No.22242879

>>22241445
I'm in the retard phase. Noticed a story about how
Trump talked shit about Goodyear, causing their stock to go down, which prompted me to buy $100 worth of GT. Then I discover /smg/ weeks later and buy about $1k worth of AAPL at around $130 because of FOMO.

>> No.22242917

>>22242867
They got btfo too hard this year by the bull run.

>> No.22242944
File: 98 KB, 239x271, 1483238969518.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22242944

So Tesla should open at the most $350 on Tuesday right?

>> No.22242949

>>22242640
Curious of this too.

>> No.22242951

>>22242804
Ever since 2013 fren
T. Euro

>> No.22242983

>>22242816
So I agree with their pessimism. Economies and societies are held together by pushing on weird human psychologies and drives. Money is just an incentive structure and they dont let it be a store of value etc

Whatever

You can come to those conclusions and agree with them all.

Where you go from there to buy Gold, the world will end, stock market is bad, etc is the mistake.

>> No.22243001

>>22242491
im currently just DCA'ing into AMD, im extremely confident it will break into new ATH's by the end of the year so i don't mind hodling for a while if i have to.

>> No.22243003

>>22242944
Tesla will not open and will be delisted

good riddance

>> No.22243004

>>22242917
>market makers and hedgies pumping (and soon dumping) with trillions of dollars they got from central banks for free, and retail panic buying with the inflation gun to their heads
>bull run
venezuelan stock market.jpg

>> No.22243005

>>22242688
Yeah I'm not falling for this 200+ year bull trap.

>> No.22243028
File: 340 KB, 1098x761, Stonks.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22243028

>>22242393
My body is ready

>> No.22243031

>>22243003
>TSLA rejected from S&P inclusion

is it finally time to short TSLA, lads?

>> No.22243049
File: 77 KB, 850x400, _86yihknl.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22243049

>>22243005
>>22242983

>> No.22243052

>>22243031
>is it finally time to short TSLA, lads?
I'm buying 380 EOM puts on Tuesday

>> No.22243108

>>22243052
What's the cost of that?

>> No.22243117

>>22242778
Overall I am up $193.10 on TSLA because I bought a few shares way too high.
But I own a lot of FNGU which could fuck me.

>> No.22243124

>>22243028
>having that many tickers

kek

>> No.22243139
File: 362 KB, 1875x918, PRAISEBEUNTOHIM.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22243139

>>22240451
Ides of march and September surprises go back thousands of years anon...

Anyone who truly studies history sees there is nothing new under the sun

>> No.22243143
File: 58 KB, 406x572, 1599242089551.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22243143

>>22241982
Ya I've kinda be leaning towards 50ish since I've had cases where some of my plays jumped up 25% in the span on minutes.
>>22242011
I lost about $400 with my SPY puts for the same reason lmao. Setting up a limit sell right after purchase seems to be a good idea to instantly secure profit.
>>22242013
Currently a NEET so daytrading is what I've been doing. Occasionally I'll get lucky with holding something overnight like from Thursday to Friday this week, but those are few and far between.
>>22242035
My plan is to finish reading the Intelligent Investor this weekend and I'll look into these videos, thanks.
>>22242235
Greed is a helluva drug.

Thanks for the responses frens.

>> No.22243145

should I dump my clean energy sector etf?
It is falling so quickly

>> No.22243161

>>22243124
>he doesn't know about diversification
>he doesn't know hedge funds operate similar portfolios
stay poor lol

>> No.22243177

Kek, people shat on ViacomCBS. I bought during the march sale event. Up 37% on it alone now... I wish I'd bought more. I'm a film nut so I also own DIS and T. Bought more DIS during the march sale event to.

>> No.22243178

>>22243145
Biden and dems are looking likely to lose over antifa riots and blm.

>> No.22243199

>>22242766
About three years, I got fucked pretty hard right when I started because of the Fed raising interest rates but since then I’ve been doing pretty well. I’m 32 and have a (pretty useless) math degree so if I implode I’ll just figure something else out. I also have no debt and only spend about $12000 a year. I only started this lifestyle because I wanted to be able to ski full time. I only need to make my minimal living expenses trading. I should have added too that my trading account is actually an inherited IRA so I have no tax penalty for liquidating or day trading and I have an exclusively buy and hold account that I never sell anything in until it reaches at least 100% profit whereupon I either let it ride or rebalance a portion into something else. I think this lifestyle is only sustainable if you can live a somewhat ascetic existence. I still have money to travel and I have a girlfriend and all that but I suspect eventually I’ll have to either move on to something else or end up alone.

>> No.22243207

>>22242688
bruh i just want to make it and never have to wage slave again for the rest of my life, is that so wrong? im not asking for a particularly lavish lifestyle or anything just enough to meet my basic needs + internet.

>> No.22243214

>>22243145
Why did you buy that now? Buy that if Goyden wins

>> No.22243221

>>22243145
Clean energy is a meme and only gets money when people in the .gov have personal interests. Fuck energy anyway.

>> No.22243267

>>22243124
20-40 is the sweet spot

>> No.22243273

>>22242867
in hindsight, everyone was way too greedy as more and more people FOMO'd into TQQQ without really considering that a -5% pullback or more (which was way overdue) would be fucking painful on a 3x leverage.

>> No.22243308

If we can buy fractional shares we should be able to buy/sell fractional options. My poorfag ass can't afford 100 of most stock.

>> No.22243309

>>22243028
>owning coke AND pepsi
>8% tobacco
>14% utilities
lmfao

>> No.22243322

>>22243267
divide that by 10 and you're right.

>> No.22243335

>>22243322
smol brain

>> No.22243336

>>22241789
You should learn fundamental analysis and technical analysis, they work well together. Swing technical analysis could of saved a lot of people's money this past week.

>> No.22243348

>>22243273
It's called divide by 3. If you can't do that you don't deserve to own stocks let alone leveraged ETFs

>> No.22243363

>>22243335
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvULLXEk-xQ

>> No.22243375

>>22243335
Ok peter lynch

>> No.22243382

>>22243309
Looks better than mine its 1/3 cannabis pennystocks

>> No.22243409

>>22242816
Nothing in life is certain. Value comes from supply and demand.
>Print trillions in cash
>Cash is worthless
>Go into stonks
>Stonk bubble pops
>Go into real estate
>Earthquake or supervolcano destroys your land and its worthless
>Go into precious metals
>We start asteroid mining trillions of tonnes of gold, silver and platinum
>Precious metals lose their scarcity and therefore their value
>Invest in energy
>We start gas mining the planet Jupiter
>Energy is essentially free
>Invest in love/sex
>The technological singularity creates a virtual reality where men can live out their wildest fantasies for free
>Invest in life itself
>Humanity discovers the cure for death and ascends to a higher plane of existence where time and space have no meaning
>With this comes the end of scarcity and therefore the end of all returns on investments, ever

>> No.22243418

>>22243309
KO and PEP arent direct competitors, one dominates soft drinks, the other dominates snacks. It's like CAT and DE. One is construction and one is primarily ag, they only have 15% overlap in products.

But you are a simple man.

>> No.22243440

>no more weekend bulls, just doomposting and "dah worst is yet to come"
Positively bullish

>> No.22243455

>>22243418
You're right, I am a simple man. I buy tech and that's it. Enjoy your Fritos

>> No.22243466

>>22243409
Based transhumanist

>> No.22243475

>>22243375
>implying that's an insult

>> No.22243491

>>22243409
calling bullshit, how do I short the singularity?

>> No.22243495

>>22243409
Based


I shorted gold friday

>> No.22243496

>>22243455
Enjoy your bubble

>> No.22243512

>>22243475
>implying you think that I think you are actually as good as Peter Lynch

>> No.22243516

I own KO and KDP shares. Cause I drink KO products and Dr pepper. It don't hurt either that both pay out a divvy.

>> No.22243520

>>22243491
Gotta start with industrialization

We are in a singularity for some time now in regards to history.

>> No.22243525

>>22243363
did you even watch your own vid?

>> No.22243526

>>22243491

By making something separate. That's how god did it.

>> No.22243540

>>22243526
so lsd then?

>> No.22243562

>>22243496

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/05/opinion/sunday/when-will-the-tech-bubble-burst.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-the-yahoo-finance-company-of-the-year-173130275.html

>> No.22243569

>>22243540
Nah psychedelics bring you closer to it. Try cocaine.

>> No.22243603

>>22243562
People think tech is in a bigger bubble than it is, but in 10 years it'll all be tech.

>> No.22243613
File: 486 KB, 1933x678, 162169541654165.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22243613

>>22243418
>lmfao
to be fair KO is pretty frothy right now too, having gone up to 16x the ATR from the 200 EMA on the 1h recently.

>> No.22243621
File: 199 KB, 2000x1500, A8B6F8A0-689E-40BA-BC79-C4CE7C06330D.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22243621

>>22243440
Were you not here at close friday? It was all cocky pulls telling bobo to get back in the cuckshed. Meanwhile tesla is down back under $400. If you werent paying attention, an AH tesla dump is exactly how thursday and friday’s dumps began
None of that matters though. Watch DXY. It was up going into close friday evening, which is bearish for equities. We’ll just have to watch and see on tuesday, but one thing is CERTAIN: we are not in the golden bull run confidence phase this weekend. Whether we return on tuesday is the big question

>> No.22243646

>>22239952
Sertraline.

>> No.22243679

>>22243562
shit, you could really round out that financial expertise and post some opinion articles from Salon and CNN as well.

>> No.22243696

RA in Econometrics. Sorry for the late answer, but I've just read these posts and I found them interesting:
>>22232075
TA is a bit different from models which you use in econometrics, but, if you use 20 years worth of data, consider the idea of implementing time-varying parameters. Indeed, one of the most common problems in finance is balancing the need of having a long time series to fit the parameters and having a sample which belongs to the same population.
As an example, the current market is very different from the one of two years ago. Hence if you were to fit the parameters using two years worth of data, you wouldn't have good predictions.

>>22232410
If, as I understood, the 50% or more relates to the percentage of correct sign predictions then it isn't such a big accomplishment. Personally, I got a percentage of 65% for the US market using dumb models and in “A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns” by Pesaran & Timmermann (you can download it with SciHub or Libgen) the authors get a percentage of 60%. Moreover, in my projects I also implement what I call the “Chaos benchmark”, aka a vector randomly generated through rand() with suitable adjustments for leverage, and I often get a similar values.
So, in my opinion, he would have to put in more effort to build a truly profitable model.
As for the “no emotion” point, I agree with you. It is certainly a point in favour for algorithmic trading.

>> No.22243704

>>22243621
>tesla
No shit retard, stop conflating meme companies with actual companies
>>hurrdurr tesla go down now maybe microsoft go down more too

>> No.22243719

Bitcoin is going to be under $9001 by next week.

>> No.22243734

>>22241204
The virus isn't dangerous in summer. It has been confirmed that it was fucking around in Barcelona one year ago in march and nobody noticed during summer, that's why Spain it's so fucked up compared to other countries. The real doom party starts on autumn or winter, who knows. All those vaccine news etc are fake or half truths so people don't panic. Not enough vaccines for everyone, and not good enough.

You're totally right in the second part, I already sold like 50% of my portfolio expecting a considerable crash soon

>> No.22243738
File: 660 KB, 698x840, 1421624816070.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22243738

>>22243621
People have 3 days to calm down or 3 days to sweat and panic. If years of gambling has taught me anything the majority of your average investors are currently sweating and trying to figure out how to take profits. The seasoned veterans are trying to figure out how to position themselves to make bank.

If Monday is another bloodbath then shit is going down hard.

>> No.22243754
File: 88 KB, 242x325, 1515004813190.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22243754

I am so god damn comfy bros

>> No.22243764

>>22243734
I see. This explains why india and brazil and other south american countries are getting hit hard by coronavirus. They're very cold countries.

>> No.22243767

No one think tsla is dead now and their ai car shit failed and the brand is worthless now

No one think tech is shit now and doomed. The bubble popped and we all realized advertising on fb or instagram is a bad idea. That no one wants apple.products anymore

What happened was. Fuck the prices, this is insane, fuck fuck fuck hit it hard and sell.

It was because of a parabolic run. Not a real crash. It hit momentum people.

Tesla is still at heavy valuation and had plenty of buyers. Their thesis isnt dead because of 2500 vs 2000 valuation. It will take years for tesla thesis to emerge or fail.

Tech valuation seemed fucky to many people much less tutes that hold 80% of all stocks. Sell off isnt a surprise. Dont believe the robinhood bs as one of the least like retail trader big tech, google, had a crazy run up and correction down too.

As a tech bull. Those hated prices people thought looked insane will eventually be normalized just later from now. But the move thur and fri made 100% sense given overall views and how fast the move up was.

>> No.22243783

>>22243028
fuck... I thought tobacco companies were on the outs since everyone stopped smoking... those are some nice dividends I may have to throw some cash their way

>> No.22243784
File: 48 KB, 474x710, OIP (14).jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22243784

>>22243738
>monday

>> No.22243789

>>22243679
When tutes beat qqq id search their shit up

>> No.22243815

ok fuck it, I'm putting another $5K into GME on Monday 1 hour after open.

>> No.22243852
File: 158 KB, 478x463, C9DF8B01-468B-460D-A5E0-185015B39F30.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22243852

>>22243704
My friend, do you have any idea what the nasdaq is? Dont you ever think its interesting how a lot of the time, all the lines look eerily similar?
>>22243738
In my opinion, people have 3 days to calm down, realize they shouldnt panic sell, and instead wait for Tuesday to see what happens. When tuesday dumps because confidence is down, then lots of people will throw their plans to the wind and panic sell anyways. Seasoned vets dont want to buy the dip prematurely, they wont buy instantly like sellers. Thats just one mans opinion. I think the printer will turn on again at some point in the day but lots of people will try to get out if it doesnt open green

>> No.22243860

>>22243621
>what happens to TSLA happens to the rest of tech

im so tired of this meme bros, they literally make no fucking money and keep getting compared to the likes of apple and microsoft and nvidia. im so fucking tired.

>> No.22243869

>>22243815
absolutely based except it's not opening Monday

>> No.22243874

>>22243738
monday will see all trading frozen due to impending bloodbath.

>> No.22243879

Anyone have a good read on tax?

>> No.22243881

>>22243783
the harder they push anti-smoking, the more people want to smoke

>> No.22243898

>>22243852
see
>>22243860
index kiddies pumping NASDAQ doesn't change the fact Tesla is in a bubble and most of the rest of FAGMAN really isnt by any metric

>> No.22243901

>>22243869
FUCK. i mean tuesday

>> No.22243908

>>22243815
Based retard

>> No.22243917
File: 124 KB, 653x737, deletthis.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22243917

>>22243860
the exact same idiots throwing their corona bux at TSLA are throwing their bux at APPL MSFT and NVDA

If you cannot ascertain that there has been immense hype followed by the herd in all these then I dont know what to tell you.

>> No.22243920

>>22243852
>When tuesday dumps because confidence is down, then lots of people will throw their plans to the wind and panic sell anyways
I think this is the most likely scenario. The post-rona crash run up euphoria is wearing off and the very real effects of an impending global recession are about to come to the surface more and more everyday.

>> No.22243922

>>22243860
It doesnt matter what reality is or whats fair. Tesla is a fucking meme but they are valued alongside fagman. They are a big chunk of the nasdaq. They can bring down fagman (not as severely) but even that seems to be able to trigger dumps in this climate

>> No.22243926

Bears are wet blanket FAGGOTS that sound like a naggy mother-in-law. Get fucked.

>> No.22243929

>>22243860
Tesla is more like early amazon. I wish the price was better but we probably never get a good price since the brand and technology is so good.

The people buying and holding will win in like 5 years with 20x growth

>> No.22243946

>>22243917
Thinking its retail people pumping these big cap stocks is crazier

>> No.22243958
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22243958

>>22243852
>In my opinion, people have 3 days to calm down, realize they shouldnt panic sell, and instead wait for Tuesday to see what happens. When Tuesday dumps because confidence is down, then lots of people will throw their plans to the wind and panic sell anyways. Seasoned vets don't want to buy the dip prematurely, they wont buy instantly like sellers. That's just one mans opinion. I think the printer will turn on again at some point in the day but lots of people will try to get out if it doesn't open green
Essentially what I was saying thank you for wording it better.

>> No.22243959

>>22243917
>still spouting the coronabux meme after Softbank was unmasked as the recent whale
Behind the curve and retarded

And again
>HURR DURR COMPANIES WITHOUT REVENUE ARE EXACTLY THE SAME AS COMPANIES WITH REVENUE BECAUSE I'M A LUDDITE AFRAID OF TECH
literally kill yourself boomer even your turboboomer god Buffet has huge Apple holdings

>> No.22244000

>>22243898
If tesla craters fagman may not crater, but they will have a nice dump and give me some cheapies. Im fully with you that fagman is the way of the future despite bubble talk. Shit like zoom tesla and netflix is what you want to avoid, but unfortunately they affect the actual companies. It doesnt matter thought because they will be dropped and the real companies will continue onwards and print me cash

>> No.22244011

Lol @ everyone who thinks tech is suddenly not the future because we are 14 trading days back after two big sell offs.
Lol @ thinking TSLA is dead
Fuck it. I'm going balls deep in FNGU. Fuck you gay bears

>> No.22244029

>>22244000
I don't think Apple is going to dump another 10%, that would put it into oversold territory and nobody can resist oversold Apple. Nice trips btw.

>> No.22244053

>>22244011
If you were a real tech bull and not a retarded zoomer youd want it to dump harder so you can put all your money into fagman (nvidia) at a healthy level and not meme pumped ATHs
Im a tech bull but ive been praying to god for a dump since july

>> No.22244058
File: 363 KB, 1920x1080, Stop!.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22244058

>>22243929
>the brand and technology is so good

>> No.22244069

>>22244011
Tesla isn't dead but it should be $200 or $300, Kimball Musk fucked shorted the top and then exercised stock options to close his shorts. You don't do that at a fair price.

>> No.22244073

>>22243881
Investing in tobacco just has a nice feeling to it too... "I am a tobacco baron" has a nice ring to it.

While it may have gone out of favour a bit, I dont see the industry ever ending, and people will buy smokes over paying rent... thanks for giving me the idea, hopefully my next plays will go through and ill funnel some money into it to get those sweet sweet dividends

>> No.22244074

>>22243959
Buffet bought into Apple when they became a phone company.

>> No.22244091

>>22244053
tech has been at ATHs almost constantly since 2011

>> No.22244093

>>22244053
This. I want to buuuy

>> No.22244094

>>22244029
I agree that an apple 10% dump is unlikely, but if tesla dumps 15% a 5% apple dump is not unlikely, especially due to its incredible runup in the past few months. Which tesla did just do and apple followed. But like you said, apple isnt a bubble, its just a little high right now. Unlike tesla, which is a monstrosity

>> No.22244110

>>22244053
NVDA is held in FNGU. I also hold NVDA seperately in my Vanguard account which is basically just my savings account.
If it dumps more that is fine because I think I have 4 or 5 thousand dollars on the way to my RH account. Not a ton of money but it'll be nice to buy some 3x leveraged cheapies with.

>> No.22244137

>>22244069
That's fine, his actions don't impact the long term price target. I am with based mommy Cathie Wood on this. Ok, maybe not as high as her PTs but I'm v bullish

>> No.22244138

>>22244110
I personally will never buy fngu despite the memes because it values tesla so much. I refuse to have my set it and forget it growth index fund at the mercy of the cult of elon. If i want tesla theres enough of it in TQQQ for me

>> No.22244160

>>22243946
>>22243959

The whales are no longer throwing bux at them anons... try to keep up.. plenty of idiots are still throwing money at them and trying to buy a "dip"

Talking about stupid people still throwing money at companies =/= saying that is the reason for the massive bubbles in those companies.


Who cares what buffet does... he can be wrong... APPL and NVDA are not going to tank as much as TSLA but both are still over valued/bought.

NVDA is better then appl, but a long hold on both is safe, but now is the time to sell and buy in later when they are both cheaper.

>> No.22244161
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22244161

>>22244093
I underestimated the dip and blew my load early but I still got Apple at an 8% discount

>> No.22244186
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22244186

>>22244073
I'm a long term buyer of MO and PM
being a tobacco baron is fun - play Tropico 4 & 5 for the video game experience

>> No.22244193

>>22243959
Im also a fucking computer engineer you idiot... not everyone who disagrees with you is a boomer luddite... you sound like a herd following "i fucking love science" retard

If you were smart you would be looking at where the smart money is GOING not where it has been

>> No.22244203

>>22244110
Oh and i should have mentioned that NVDA is in TQQQ at around 3% and SOXL at around 9%. I hold both, so i am very covered on NVDA. which is good, they are a hardcore tech company on the cutting edge of AI/ML/NN

>> No.22244213

>>22243199
Sounds pretty nice. I would like to use the market as a vehicle for supplementing income and not have to slave away at a job I hate. I'm all for living simply. Spending money on frivolous shit provides no real enjoyment. Ideally I'd be able to be able to work for myself and not live in either poverty or constant stress. We'll see if that works for anyone in the coming years.

>> No.22244215

>>22244160
>typing this much useless garbage to say you think every company that isnt coke is Tesla
ok
>the massive bubble in AAPL
show me any metric that says this, just one, any at all

>> No.22244240

>>22244053
this... NVDA when it goes to a proper bottom is the best bet if one wants to buy back into tech after the bubble properly pops

>> No.22244261

>>22244138
I agree. TSLA is super volatile on it's own and can boost or drag any ETF holding it. I am definitely grabbing more TQQQ to balance out my FNGU.
My only holdings are
FNGU
TQQQ
TSLA
AAPL
NVDA

>> No.22244266

>>22244094
The real issue is if the market doesn't come down for a minute and instead suddenly shoots back up we really will start to form a tech bubble.

>> No.22244287

>>22244193
>I'm a pa/g/eet guys trust me I'm smart
smart money is in air conditioning, green energy, and buying tech dips

none of the actual tech bluechips are anywhere near a bubble, MSFT would need to triple in price to get to a triple digit PE

>> No.22244367

>>22244193
Are you a rotation player buying dis and casinos?

>> No.22244391
File: 25 KB, 1600x901, appl.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22244391

>>22244186
anons like you make SMG comfy.

>>22244215
see, when you just throw around insults like that, which really just make you look like you are justifying your position to yourself, you come across as being really inexperienced and like are poor.

You win, apple totally didnt add a trillion bux to its MC in a month or so, totally normal, nothing to see here, line only go up, maybe a 2% correction is all that is needed.

>> No.22244406

>>22244266
Agreed, we will see on tuesday. But if that happens, just make money on the way up. I wont be left again for a second bullrun. Just either set stop losses or buy OTM calls on QQQ and roll them over constantly so you dont get caught holding the bag. And always keep cash on hand to buy dips. I only spent 20% of my cash the past two days because i anticipate it going lower.

>> No.22244414

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v8JdmoyUxrs&ab_channel=CNBCTelevision

>We've never had a Fed that told us they won't raise interest rates: Canaccord Genuity's Tony Dwyer

>> No.22244447

>>22244391
>linear scale back to 1975
cool beans now show me the PE or PS or literally any actual metric instead of "big line go up too much maybe go down now"

the only fear I have with apple is big dick daddy Xi banning iPhones

>> No.22244479

>>22244287
This

I bought qqq on fri, hitting a good amount at 274. If I am looking far into future and know I want tech holdngs these dips are great.

I held back all buying for a few months, but these prices are good and you can sell juicy otm covered calls on everything.

>> No.22244516
File: 43 KB, 699x700, NTmeL5p.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22244516

>>22239728
Stock picks for Tuesday if the market is feeling good: BABA, JD, CRWD also SOXL dip could be a buy.

>> No.22244533

>>22243613
KO broke above resistance and the 200 day average last week. It can continue to run for a while yet.

>> No.22244545

>>22244414
>should the multiple be 25? Should it be 50? Should it be 125?!
Based Tony

>> No.22244582

What if its not a dip but was an upside pop that bursted

We are like 2 weeks back in prices and the upside boom was barely longer than the dip

>> No.22244586

Holy shit, i just looked at whats in ARKK. You people actually bought this shit?

>> No.22244596

>>22244533
any particular FA reasoning behind the resistance break? i like AMD but im a bit worried since the softbank shit happened, im shopping around for good safe companies i can implement my dip buying strategy on that won't ever crash significantly.

>> No.22244602
File: 189 KB, 222x230, 1439695424561-1.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22244602

>>22244406
I'm gonna play it safe for the next few weeks but I am staying far away from tech and meme stocks until that shit comes back down to earth.

>> No.22244619

>>22244582
Similar to how march wasnt a v recovery bull run but instead too much panic correcting itself esp with tech

>> No.22244620

>>22244582
Then I'm gonna lose a bunch of money listening to Tony Dwyer lol

>> No.22244636
File: 87 KB, 468x584, aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22244636

>>22244367
I am more looking towards mining sector, one anon brought up tobacco which I cannot believe I over looked.

Casinos and alcohol seem like a good thing to poke around in. Id also highly recommend getting exposed to physical assets like gold, silver, guns+ammo+food just in case.

>>22244287
>the guy with fag ID thinks calling me a luddite or a pageet means he wont lose money

MSFT will be affected but wont tank as much as others since its a boomer tier stonk, but it will still be affected.

Also you need to be 18 to post here anon

>> No.22244675

>>22244636
I shorted gold on friday close

>> No.22244698

>>22244287
>green energy
>smart
Lel

>> No.22244712

>>22244636
>if I repeat myself enough I'll be right
I asked for any metric that indicates a tech bluechip is in a bubble. PE, PS, RSI, anything. You gave me a graph going back to 1975 and some vague mumblings about the line being too high. I'll ask again. What evidence do you have that the big dick boomer tech companies like Apple and Microsoft are "dramatically" overvalued? Not like, 10% too hot, I can buy that. But you said a bubble, and to me that implies Apple could go down 50%, which sounds farcical.

Is that civil enough for you?

>> No.22244750

>>22244675
Probably a good move, it will be affected by the sell off too short term.

>> No.22244804

>>22244698
Nuclear should do well, even the idiots on the left are starting to realise it pollutes less then solar/wind and dont "MUH CERYNOBL" it every time.

SMR reactors and similar are already being planned around here, so nuclear and uranium related stuff could see a really nice bull run if you dont mind being patient.

>> No.22244806
File: 69 KB, 1000x750, soros.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22244806

good news for apple on tuesday

>> No.22244814

>>22241243
Thats fucking terrible

>> No.22244829

>>22242393
Hey buddy, fuck you and your larp

>> No.22244836
File: 357 KB, 1080x1373, Usa.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22244836

OH NO NO NO BOBO

>> No.22244849

>>22244213
My thinking is that even if I completely blow up my account, since I pretty much only buy shares anyway (may get back into buying leaps and low risk options when things settle down some), the worst that will happen is that I have to start waging again for a few years. I work construction with one of my friends occasionally when he gets a big contract and I can live off of one weeks wages for at least a month. I’ve been really lucky but I also think that having the right mindset is very important. I hope you make it anon, life is too short to waste all of your best years waging hoping to be rich when you’re old. I understand people who need to provide for their families doing it but having a lot if money isn’t a good enough reason in itself, for me at least.

>> No.22244854

>>22244698
Whether you like it or not Europe is going full Greta and liberal states/ Canada are following. There's strong tailwinds for solar and wind demand.

>>22244804
I love nuclear in theory but the regulations are just so fucked I don't know if it can become really profitable, like Canadian pot companies.

>> No.22244915

>>22243764
Yup. Be safe on autumn and winter guys. The real second wave is probably worse than expected in all countries. The governments are retarded if they aren't aware of that, or they are aware and try to hide it so people don't panic

>> No.22244979

>>22243049
tfw it's real. The greatest philosopher in the last 500 years literally naming the Jew

>> No.22245033
File: 289 KB, 1904x1346, elon_musk_names_the_jew.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22245033

>>22244979
>when you realize all the great minds, great thinkers and great business leaders in the last 500 years have either been jewish or named the jew

>> No.22245035

Yeah I'm thinking it's buy every fucking dip time

>>
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