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File: 1.56 MB, 2221x1692, 2020-07-25 Link chart.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
20686715 No.20686715 [Reply] [Original]

Updated version of this chart. New colors!

>> No.20686733

>>20686715
wow thanks for a pointless picture! really appreciate it!

>> No.20686759

>>20686733

I do it all for you, anon

>> No.20686783

>>20686715
thanks OP ignore the other faggot

>> No.20686944

thanks for the dopamine hit

>> No.20686994

could you make one for other cryptos too? i really appreciate the effort man, hopium.

>> No.20686999

>>20686715

Two thoughts on this one:

1. People always argue over whether this chart is FUD or hopium. It's neither. It's just a simple sketch of some possible scenarios, and you can choose which you find the most convincing. But, the reason to even bother making a chart like this is to help inform better decisions on when to buy and sell. Overall I'd say this chart has one clear thing to say: Don't sell under 20 dollars. It's so absurdly likely that crypto will one day achieve it's previous ATH market cap. All link has to do is stay roughly at its current rank and we hit 20$ easy.

2. This doesn't really need to be said anymore, but 1000$ EOY is a meme. Crypto would have to go to absurd multiples of it's current marketcap AND link would have to achieve bitcoin-like market dominance. Not happening any time soon.

This is the first update of this chart after the pump past 5$ and it feels surreal. I've been making these things since we were at sub 50 cent prices. What a journey

>> No.20687055

>>20686999
you deserve those digits, a true gentleman and good person all around

>> No.20687059
File: 37 KB, 400x350, 019A5604-D543-474D-9ED6-01855984CFFE.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
20687059

>>20686999
Checked and Based chart anon. Thank you for your service.

>> No.20687133

>>20686783
this. looks good

>> No.20687148

>>20686999
Checked

>> No.20687163

>>20686715
thanks! what %of marketcap do you think bitcoin will have at these levels? did you have a consistent number in mind?

>> No.20687175
File: 248 KB, 1709x960, linkNov.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
20687175

>>20687055
>>20687059

thx brehs

>> No.20687188

>>20686999
One of the few link holders with common sense

>> No.20687216

>>20686715
Doesn't that chart make the assumption that chainlink will maintain its value in sats even if Bitcoin moons?

>> No.20687234

>>20687216
yes, the chart makes a lot of assumptions. read the bottom of it

>> No.20687311
File: 284 KB, 1629x1039, mcap.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
20687311

>>20687163

So, in terms of the chart, this just assumes that the rank/mcap distributions will remain the same. So, the estimated bitcoin price at each marketcap (orange font), is based on bitcoin's current dominance, which is ~62%. Incidentally, that's why the price of BTC listed at the old marketcap is >27000$, even though bitcoin only got to 20k at the actual previous crypto ATH - the 27K is from calculating what the price of BTC would be at it's *current* market dominance, but with crypto markets as a whole at their *previous* ATH.

In terms of what I actually think will happen, I think bitcoin will still be #1 but gradually decrease in dominance. The adoption of DeFi might accelerate this quite a lot.

>> No.20687315

>>20686999
IMO with BTC hitting 100k 2022-2023 at peak mania and projecting LINK to be #3 that would give LINK price somewhere between 300-400 usd, I have to think that's the most optimistic scenario I can envision these next few years.

>> No.20687347

it looks good thanks op but damn, it's going to be a loooong time before it hits 100. PTSD at that point is now a given

>> No.20687358

>>20687315
the super high price predictions for chainlink were always based on lots of the tokens being "locked up" in nodes, thereby reducing the circulating supply. whether or not you believe this stuff is up to you though.

>> No.20687392

I'm getting hopium withdrawal symptoms

>> No.20687404

>>20686999
I don't think there is actually any reason why chainlink cannot be worth more than BTC desu

>> No.20687415

So likely 100
Possibly 300
And might wick to 900

>> No.20687435

>>20686733
Fuck off no linker

>> No.20687446

Where do you see the coin rankings?
N00b here (new money)

>> No.20687499

>>20687216
>>20687234

So, this chart assumes that each rank's current market % 'dominance' will remain the same, even as the total market cap increases. i.e. Rank #2 (currently occupied by Eth) is currently 11% of the total crypto Mcap. This chart assumes even if we are at 10 Trillion, Rank #2 will still be 11% of the mcap.

This chart doesn't make any explicit predictions about Link's value in sats. If BTC moons, the rest of the market could be mooning as well, and we just increase total mcap and move up a column on the chart. If BTC moons alone, it would disrupt the assumption of mcap distributions remaining the same, and so I update the chart as the distributions change.

>> No.20687594

>>20687358
Yes, I’ve been watching these threads since the original (thnx anon btw) and yes they do not account for the lockup effect that most anons are aware of. The thing is, either link succeeds and the tokens are locked up for staking or it doesn’t succeed and they aren’t, if they are then then $1000 is actually not a meme, I know it sounds crazy. If they are not locked up then the project is unusable and the price would essentially be 0. I personally believe it will succeed and we will see green dildos to space but then again I may be wrong. The only thing for sure is that due to the tokenomics of link the price will either be way higher than this when staking is implemented or worth nothing. We will find out by the end of the year which is nice.

>> No.20687596

>>20687404

For sure, there's a chance that BTC could fail, or some of the crazier link scenarios actually come to pass. BTC feels like it has a strong lock on store-of-value because of the security provided by its huge hashrate, and its history as the original cryptocurrency. That might change but for now it feels like pretty strong advantages. Ari Paul's analysis of this ('there's a50/50 chance that BTC exists in 20 years') seems pretty good to me: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HYMEHpkHKM ~28 mins

>> No.20687617

>>20686715
yaaay new ass pull numbers

>> No.20687685

>>20686715
I don't see $81,000 on here OP. This chart is FUD

>> No.20687686

>>20686715
I will repeat it again to you, your chart is stupid.
It says nothing, it gives 0 information. It's all product your imagination about numbers.

>> No.20687726
File: 19 KB, 800x938, IMG_0236(1).jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
20687726

>>20686999
thxs sarge very comfy

>> No.20687727

>>20686715
What do you do for a living? This is beautiful on every level.

>> No.20687730

>>20686999
didnt read, not selling

>> No.20687753

>>20686715
only good thread up right now, based armadillo

>> No.20687756

>>20687686

Disagree! Like I said above, I think it does have a few informative things to tell us. Right now I think it says 1. Don't sell below 20$, and 2. 1000$ EOY is obviously FUD. That's actionable information. The chart as a whole isn't meant to be predictive, I'm not claiming we will hit a particular rank or marketcap, I'm just sketching on a napkin what those would need to be for link to hit the crazy prices people pull out of their asses.

>> No.20687759

>>20686999
>1000$ EOY is a meme
ngmi

>> No.20687793

>>20687446
https://coinmarketcap.com/

warning: have popup blockers and stuff like that enabled - they recently put up a bunch of ads and the site is bullshit now

outside of that, google "crypto coin rankings"

>> No.20687796
File: 65 KB, 491x707, MUH MARKETCAP.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
20687796

>>20687756

>> No.20687809

>>20687756
Sgt, again this does no compensate for the insanely reduced supply with staking. With that in mind, it’s either $1000 or bust

>> No.20687832

>>20687793
Thanks fren

>> No.20687913
File: 848 KB, 4047x3589, 2020-03-06LINKCHARTV2-03-03-03 - Copy.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
20687913

>>20687617

Actually these are the literal opposite of ass pull numbers, anon. Each cell is determined by the same transparent calculation, and I'm not claiming we hit any particular rank or mcap.

>>20687727
Biophysics research scientist. And thank you! Do you like these colors better than the old white background?

>>20687796
I don't even understand what you're saying here.

>> No.20687923
File: 133 KB, 387x357, 1572044581825.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
20687923

Isnt LINK's price tied to it's usage in oracles/nodes aka the market cap of the actual macro economy though if it is implemented properly? Not just crypto?

Somebody please correct me if im being retarded but isnt LINK's and ETHs market cap somewhat independent when they are actually implemented in real world use cases because they're no longer locked in the crypto bubble and have intrinsic value outside of the artificial value placed on all crypto due to philisophy and politics of the holders. BTC only has value because people who like the idea of decentralized currency are willing to take it as payment for goods or services. LINK and ETH are not restrained to this use case and therefore have a market cap that is not entirely restrained to the total market cap of crypto. Basically link and Eth have uses that fiat based businesses and governments will want to take advantage of. BTC (which the crypto market follows) does not.

The chart does not account for this.

>> No.20688004

These DO NOT ACCOUNT for tokens stashed in staking

These graphs are worthless

>> No.20688024
File: 1.43 MB, 4500x4500, 1571958301724.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
20688024

>>20687175
>chart shows link at 11th place at $4.12 at current market cap
>when it got to 11th place it was actually almost double that

hmmm

>> No.20688058

>>20686999

Fully diluted MC does not equal price anon. Not taking into account staking and total tokens locked in nodes... chart's worthless.

>> No.20688104

>>20687594
>>20687809
>>20688004

So, its true that some tokens will be locked in staking, and this would in theory make the price go up. However, there are also enormous amounts of reserve tokens that are still not circulating, and when these are released it would decrease the price. You could also argue that the value of tokens being locked to stake is also priced in to the current price - our current valuation is certainly not market-driven based on using link to pay for oracle data. So, until we have details about staking, it would be stupid to try and adjust the prices based on what we think will happen. Assumptions in a model should be as simple and conservative as possible, imo.

>> No.20688121

>>20688104
ok now you're just doing FUD

>> No.20688131

>>20686999
Checked.
Bought STATERA for pooling my LINK. Hoping to get to 100k before the peak

>> No.20688165
File: 145 KB, 167x383, A1B26D1F-C2EE-4DD0-BDAA-4259C542AE91.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
20688165

Based OP, great contribution to this board, please don’t stop.

>> No.20688186

>>20687913
I do! The background actually makes the chart more visually comprehensive too. I would have guessed graphic designer lol. Thanks & again, really beautiful work fren.

>> No.20688187

>>20688024

That's from two years ago anon. The total marketcap in that chart was much lower than it is now. We've gone up in rank and also increased mcap since then.

>> No.20688264

>>20688187
the market cap now is 237.1 BIL opposed to the 207 BIL in the chart you posted. Not quite enough of a jump to justify LINK doubling what you predicted. Just saying.

Best way to see if somebody is a good source of data analysis is to look at their past predictions and compare them with reality.

>> No.20688312

>>20688264
299 BIL* my bad

>> No.20688326
File: 98 KB, 1120x767, 1595524764786.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
20688326

>>20686999
>This doesn't really need to be said anymore, but 1000$ EOY is a meme. Crypto would have to go to absurd multiples of it's current marketcap AND link would have to achieve bitcoin-like market dominance. Not happening any time soon.
Total brainlet take.

>> No.20688340

>>20688121

What part of that is FUD? Currently locked tokens will one day be released; that could drive down price a lot. That seems an obvious fact. Also, people are using link to pay for oracle data, but there's not nearly enough demand right now to justify the current price based on that. Therefore, the current price has at least some speculation for staking value priced into it. I'm not trying to fud, I love link and think it has a great chance of succeeding, such trying to stay critical.

>> No.20688345

>>20688326
yup, this guy is clearly on the smarter end of the middle there.

>> No.20688395

>>20688340
you clearly need to reread the white paper if you don't know what the 650,000,000 chainlink not currently circulating is for. they won't just "be released".

>> No.20688464
File: 30 KB, 644x800, 1943F2F1-CA3F-4AC1-AD8A-7DB8383DC2E1.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
20688464

>”What do you mean Link won’t be 1000 EOY. This is FUD. You kikeniggerfaggot, I’m never selling.”

>> No.20688475

>>20688104
you are a fucking midwit

>> No.20688488
File: 346 KB, 1819x1330, mcap2.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
20688488

>>20688264

It's almost 300 bil now, anon. Also the distribution per rank has changed. That's why I update it, it's always based on the current mcap/rank distribution which fluctuates wildly. Even so, Rank 11, $4.12*(294bil/209 bil) = $5.79. That's 25% off from the current 7.69, but, shit, that's not bad for a simple estimate *two years* in the past.

Agree that looking at someone's past predictions is a good litmus test, but you might be confused here - I'm not *predicting* any particualr rank or mcap will happen. I'm just saying roughly what they would need to be for link to his certain valuations.

>> No.20688513

>>20688312

Ah, srry didn't see this

>> No.20688586

>>20688488
don't let these newfags get you down; originalfags know you and know what your chart is saying

>> No.20688633

>>20688345

>smarter end of the middle
Fuck it, i'll take it

>>20688395
Fair point. I mean at the end of the day, this chart is dumb - it's just a jumping off point for everyone's own personal ideas. If you think staking will consume all the supply, you cna adjust based on the % you think will be left on open market and go from there. Tweaks like that are going to be wildly different for each person though.

>> No.20688734

>>20688633
When do you fuckhead realize, that "muh marketcap can not be that high" is absolute bullshit?
Chainlink is not Bitcoin or Ethereum

>> No.20688786

>>20688734
Exactly, people can not comprehend that Links marketcap will be in the trillions alone

>> No.20688800

>>20686999
You are a dumb person. Market cap doesn't mean anything

>> No.20688929

>>20687311
curious, do you also expect the market dominance excluding bitcoin to also spread over more coins, or will it be more top heavy.
so not only does #1 coin (BTC) have a lower marketshare at next peak, but also #2, #3, etc. have a lower marketshare, and the real gains are seen outside of top 10.
or will the top 10 marketcap have a dominance akin to last peak, but just more evenly distributed between them.
?

>> No.20688966

>>20688786
Stop posting my Twitter Tweets you gaping goat's asshole. Everything I say it Trademarked!

>> No.20689131
File: 379 KB, 833x338, telekom.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
20689131

As Ian Keane said:
Web 2.0 was when people invested in the applications (Facebook, Google, etc.)
But the valueable part of Web 3.0 will be the infrastructure and also the place you should look at to invest in.
And guess what who has the monopole on the Layer 2 infrastructure? Chainlink.
Cisco valued the Internet in 2014 at around 14 trillion.
However this does not include insurances, IoT, SWIFT, derivates and many more usecases, which would benefit greatly from Web 3.0.
There might come out some interesting DApps, however the SmartContract revolution will be much bigger.
And this either happens or it doesn't.
And I guarantee you it does, if the world doesn't end tomorrow.
Chainlink is unironically the safest investment on this planet at this point.

Video on why you can't stop what's coming:
https://youtu.be/GNyx5lPa100

Ian Keane Interview:
https://youtu.be/AwVdsTkt22E

The worth of the Chainlink network will be in the trillions.
You haven't seen shit so far.

>> No.20689202

>>20689131
Based

>> No.20689307
File: 24 KB, 330x393, cpt.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
20689307

>>20688464
this but unironically

>> No.20689367

>>20688633

Great chart, however just so everyone knows this chart doesn’t take into account staking.

If you factor in scenarios where large % of LINK is no longer liquid $1000 becomes much more plausible.

#2 on a 1 trillion cap is like $300 already, now lock away 50% of the supply.

>> No.20689409

>>20689131

Yeah nobody is thinking about Chainlink/SmartContract on the scale they should be.

This graph is really nice, but you need to stop thinking about LINK as a cryptocurrency to understand it’s real value.

>> No.20689652

>>20689131
>Layer 2 infrastructure
Forgive my ignorance, but is there also a layer 3 and 4 etc? If so, what would be some examples?

>> No.20689898

>>20689409
>stop thinking about LINK as a cryptocurrency
Is Chainlink even a cryptocurrency? It utilizes blockchain; however, beyond that the similarities end.

>> No.20689987

>>20686715
We need to reach rank #1

>> No.20690003

>>20686715
Why is there a red dot on 6 trillion?

>> No.20690623

>>20688966
What the actual fuck are you talking about

>> No.20690724
File: 74 KB, 1104x621, c134ed78b89826720efc6005abce405a.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
20690724

>>20686715
Thanks fren.

>> No.20691162
File: 387 KB, 1338x2048, 4thIR.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
20691162

>>20686999
>2. This doesn't really need to be said anymore, but 1000$ EOY is a meme. Crypto would have to go to absurd multiples of it's current marketcap AND link would have to achieve bitcoin-like market dominance. Not happening any time soon.

And here lies the my problem with the chart. You're attaching WAY too much value in the marketcap.

This is the fourth fucking industrial revolution. We're going to be creating new monetization schemes, absorbing industries altogether, and creating new wealth. The marketcap means FUCK ALL. Chainlink is going to offer so much more to the world than the bitcoin ever will, what makes you think the bitcoin would be still on top?

>> No.20691167

what do the different colors mean?

>> No.20691230

>>20691162
don't be salty friend, he has made a useful chart that allows us to have an idea of where link can go if things "stay as they are". That is the basic limitation of this and any other analysis that is based on the current paradigm. You and I both know that the entire purpose of link will be to create a new paradigm, and you are correct in thinking this chart will be useless when that occurs. But his analysis is still useful even though it is limited.

>> No.20691397

>>20691230
Based and wellsaidpilled

>> No.20691429

>>20690003
holocaust remembrance

>> No.20691454

>>20686999
based were making it

>> No.20691456

>>20691230
Oh I am fucking salty. I have a friend who keeps going "Muh marketcap!" and while he's a super successful trader, he keeps missing out on Chainlink. He got a big stack, swung it, and went to other projects as he "fell for the FUD" and now he's priced out and refuses to get back in. He has the exact same mentality as OP. If you wanted to understand the value of tech in this field, this bloody AMAZING time period, you have to have an imagination. That will never be reflected in the marketcap until it's a reality.

>> No.20691536

>>20686999
$20 WHEN

>> No.20691549

>>20691429
how could i forget?

>> No.20691563

>>20691456
whille you are right that the correct way to approach your analysis of the crypto space is with a "what will the world of tomorrow look like" mindset, you are also being salty and projecting things onto OP that OP has not done. All OP did was create a detailed analysis of the current state of play, which is all you can really do without going into pure speculation. You could look at any analysis of any investment and put the asterisk *all of this is irrelevant if the entire world fucking changes. But that's something you as an investor should have in the back of your mind anyways, it isn't the responsbibility of OP to remind you of that. Unfortunately your friend is an NPC and isn't able to think of the future with imagination because he hasn't been programmed to have an imagination, but once again that is not OP's fault.

>> No.20691878

>>20691563
go back. holy fuck, you don't get upvotes here so just stop blogposting, retard.

>> No.20691898

>>20691878
eat nigger shit newfag

>> No.20692007

>>20691898
this is a prime example of the ribald discourse that keeps our community safe from normies and stagnation

>> No.20692905

>>20686999
Bless

>> No.20693052

>>20691230
>>20691563
>>20691898

Masterpiece in 3 acts. Thx and well said anon. This is just a simple extrapolation from markets based on how they current are now. And yeah, if link does succeed (or staking locks up supply) these charts will be obsolete and link will break into a totally new paradigm. For now I think it’s reasonable to view it in the context of the current crypto market.

>> No.20693078

>>20693052

forgot trip

>> No.20693303

>>20691563
>You could look at any analysis of any investment and put the asterisk *all of this is irrelevant if the entire world fucking changes.

We're working with technology that WILL CHANGE THE WORLD. This is why this thread triggers me so. OP feeding into this marketcap bullshit and other nulinkers are eating it up. There's no excuse to condone this chart. It has zero foresight and zero understanding of what's to come thanks to the advances of Ethereum and Chainlink. It's no better than that one quote of the guy saying the internet will have no bigger influence on the market than the fax machine.

>> No.20693463

>>20693303

Dude, I am not in any way claiming that link has to stay confined by this chart. If it reaches its potential then it’ll be a totally new paradigm, yes. But that could be years from now, or link could fail completely. This is just a potentially useful sketch of possible scenarios, given how markets are right now. Also, even the internet, which changed the world, took way longer than people thought. And internet-based companies still trade on stock markets that have been around for centuries, still have market caps, and we still compare their market caps to those of other companies. The singularity isn’t coming tomorrow, you should think critically about how your investment could fail not just huff hopium.

>> No.20693578

>>20693052
lol thanks tripfag. I appreciate the work you're putting in.

>> No.20693634

>>20686999
Blabla. I expected not more then 1,5 by eoy 2020, and here we are. 3/10 fud

>> No.20693775

>>20693303
>>20693463
well yeah i don't agree with OP that 1k eoy is a meme. The timeline might not be eoy, but that saying is more a statement of intent, the way sigilfag made the link sigil back in the day.

Link will create a new paradigm, but that will also take time. We don't know when it will happen, but we are going to continue to go up in price steadily until the singularity hits and we go above $1k. You and I both know this will happen, because we can imagine a future where automation occurs not just for menial jobs, but for skilled proffesions like engineers and lawyers. Smartcontracts can open up a world where the very idea of a contract or transaction is entirely automated, and this means much more than just payments, transfers, or even the derivative market. A world where contracts are automated and trust is commoditized through chainlink is a world where most mental labor is no longer valuable because a machine can do. No more corporate lawers, no more engineers, and eventually no more doctors because you'll have sci-fi medical beds and your genetics, physical symptoms are all constantly monitored through an implant that securely and privately relays that information to the medical services node of your choice. In that world (which is coming) link is the basic commodity of trust though which secure environments like the blockchain interface with reality, and we will be far above $1k.

But that will take time, and the world paradigm shifting. In the meantime, effortfags like OP are doing us a service by working on the current paradigm. Just keep it in the back of your mind that what op is doing is a conservative estimate and it is an easy pic to use on the normals in your life that need the authority fallacy to actually take action.

>> No.20693799

>>20693463
>This is just a potentially useful sketch of possible scenarios, given how markets are right now.

Your scenarios are confined to "Let's increase the price of Bitcoin and then maintain the ratios for the cryptocurrencies". How the fuck is this useful? How does this make any sense?

What would be more interesting and more useful is if you look at industries that are susceptible to being absorbed by smartcontracts and consider the value of Chainlink if the Chainlink network were to absorb that market. This is how the price speculation for the upper ceiling of Chainlink began and how the numbers you've seen thrown out were derived.

>> No.20693843

>>20693463
>>20693303
and forgot to add:

>The singularity isn’t coming tomorrow, you should think critically about how your investment could fail not just huff hopium

this isn't actually fud if you've been paying attention. Literally the only way we don't get rich is if link doesn't work. Think about that. Before the T-Systems announcement the 3 ways we could have failed were if sergey was a scammer, if companies don't have any interest in this solution, or if the solution chainlink provides just doesn't work. We've stripped those 3 failure conditions down to two in the last month, because companies are clearly interested, and sergey is clearly legit. Now we just wait for staking and proof that the systems works and can scale and we know, 100%, that we are going to be fucking rich.

>> No.20693859

>>20686715
>what would the value of this one pyramid scheme be if all pyramid schemes were worth one gorillion moneys

Why does it only go up to value of S&P?
Surely entire world's financial system is a better comparison, no?

Just don't show the 0, and we're good.

Poomp it, right? Those bags won't fall off on their own.

>> No.20693911

>>20693859
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3tMRSaVuUjc

how are those ripple bags doing gaylord? $2k eoy amirite?

>> No.20694020

>>20686759
thanks. always appreciate the prospective.