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19732612 No.19732612 [Reply] [Original]

Volatility is not Risk.

>> No.19732678

>>19732612
Zoom in. We're gonna have another 1932 real quick

>> No.19732767
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19732767

Bear markets are an optical illusion.

>> No.19732936

Yes they go up in the long run, but there are long ass time periods with total sideways action and long hikes back up.
If you bought at the top of -29 you had to wait until -56 to make your money back.
And if you bought stocks at the top of 1906, it took over 30 years for them to climb higher.
If you're comfortable waiting +25 years to break even then the stocks will eventually go up. Or you could simply get the fuck out and not try to catch the very top and save yourself a ton of trouble.
Also the market went sideways from 66 to 84. Then there was another sideways action from 98 to about 2008.

Timing the market makes one hell of a difference compared to buying stocks near all time highs and then holding and waiting to climb higher.
It's not exactly secret that the current economy is beyond fucked and the market will have to conform to that reality eventually. We're going to go down hard when this starts sliding and it'll be another 10-30 years until we see these highs again.

>> No.19733216

>>19732936
>It's not exactly secret that the current economy is beyond fucked and the market will have to conform to that reality eventually
I'm not so sure. The economy, as we all know, is not the stock market, and the value people place in equities depends on multiple factors. If it's not worth holding liquidity then equity values can still rise even in dire economic times.

>> No.19733247

>>19732612
>>19732936
now adjust this for real inflation

>> No.19733469

>>19732612
You stupid mother fuckers don't understand that there are local highs. "A top" not "the top".

>> No.19733506

>>19732612
the US is literally disintegrating in front of your eyes

>> No.19733547

>>19732936
Things have changed because of QE. We will go up forever until the currency collapses.

>> No.19733558

>>19732678
Zoom out

>> No.19733563

>>19732936
You don't get it do you, all of that is accounted for, so you're always better off holding at any given point of time than not.

>> No.19733667
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19733667

Stocks are the only way to grow wealth over time.

>> No.19733685

>>19732612
they only go up because population increases.

>> No.19733700
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19733700

>> No.19733707

>>19733685
And?

>> No.19733727

>>19733685
Reminder: if you buy enough Space X stock we'll be able to continue doing that until after the sun burns out.

>> No.19733755
File: 404 KB, 2560x1440, inflationadjusteddow.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19733755

>>19732936

>If you bought at the top of -29 you had to wait until -56 to make your money back.

Adjusted for inflation, if you bought in '29, you had to wait until 1992 to make your money back--63 years. Notice how misleading the OP's chart is, because it doesn't account for inflation. If you get stuck holding the bag in a real crash, you will be on death's door before you become solvent again. OP also does not show the performance of gold versus the Dow in an environment of high inflation and low real yields (as we are living through today).

>>19733667

P. E. ratios have never been so overvalued. I'd rather not gamble my life's savings on worthless pieces of paper simply on the basis of the greater fool theory. Eventually, you run out of fools.

>> No.19733776
File: 10 KB, 676x434, venezuelastocks.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19733776

>>19733547

Why would you buy stocks then? Would you rather hold gold, or Venezuelan equities giving you 1000% gains?

>> No.19733978
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19733978

>>19733547
QE only affects the big businesses and market.
The thing is that consumer is quickly being played out of the picture and QE does fuckall for them.
Debt saturation in the consumer sector is climbing like a motherfucker and eventually we'll reach a point where you have to give money directly to the people or earnings are going down the shitter.
When we reach a point where earnings and consumption in general have fallen off the edge of the world, you can't really bullshit about doing well by any metrics.

Only real way to pump up the economy is to give money to people without any bullshit personal debt included.
That was experimented with the Trump bux, but that's not enough. It has to be a monthly permanent thing or it won't work.
Just give everyone a card that gets 2k a month charged there and you're good. Of course that's also a quick ticket to destruction of the currency but there's no other option here if the economy has to be kept afloat.
Eventually the market will conform to the reality, unless the consumer actually manages to consume.
And if by some miracle we reach a point where the businesses manage to climb up even with no earnings, then we're at a point where the market might as well pull off Venezuela and go up 1000000% because why the fuck not?
If a company without earnings is valuable, then a company with an empty warehouse might as well be classed worth ten trillion, because we're past point of anything fundamental meaning a damn thing in the market.
At that point society is going to be beyond fucked, because all of the corporations are doing fine but consumer is completely out of the loop. It would end up with the average Joe taking to the streets and rioting.

Entire thing is running on fumes.
It all comes down to how long the average people can go before they're denied new debt.

>> No.19734008

>>19732612
How much of this growth is just inflation?

>> No.19734649
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19734649

>>19734008
SHHHH! You're ruining his post! You can't just ask for the same graph inflation adjusted with the value of gold overlaid, that's completely antisemitic.

>>19733978
I'm excited to see which happens first:J-pow tearing of the band-aid by announcing bond yield caps or yields creeping up to the point that FED is paying banks to buy 99% of our bonds. We've avoided felt inflation in consumer goods for decades by inflating a stock and real estate bubble, but once money flees stocks, its on for real. Can't wait to see all these homes as 'investments' get dropped to 20% in real terms. That's what you get for commoditizing the family unit.

>> No.19734686

>>19732936
priced in

>> No.19736045
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19736045

>> No.19736070

>>19732767
>trough and peak consistently going up

Nice way to frame a dishonest argument

>> No.19736073

>>19732612
*angry NN Taleb noises*
now post the nikkei

>> No.19736082
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19736082

plz sirs buy my bags