Oil Tankers

[Anonymous No.18616378]

Oil Tanker Stocks are going to skyrocket over the coming weeks. Where they have been making 30,000 to 40,000 per day they are now making 300,000 to 400,000. In 2009 some of these stocks went 5X and more in just a couple days. This scenario is far more beneficial for tankers than it was then, Tanker revenue are going to be astronomical.

FRO
EURN
NAT
TNP
TK

...Large fleets, good contracts

Rising tide raises all ships

Buy Cheap call options, Expiring 2-3 months out and just out of the money.

This will change your life

[Anonymous No.18616394]

>>18616378
Why will their share prices go up?

[Anonymous No.18616435]

>>18616394
because he thinks that they have to store it somewhere

problem is he doesn't realise that oil isn't going to be pulled out of the ground if they have to pay someone to store it, they will just leave it in the ground instead of even storing it in the pipeline

[Anonymous No.18616487]

>>18616435
>>18616394

The oil is already there

[Anonymous No.18616513]

>>18616487
Look, I'm a smart guy, but for some reason I cannot wrap my head around your plan here. Why the hell would oil tanker stocks go up? Maybe I'm tired, or maybe I've been retarded for the past 30 years. I'm genuinely interested to know the reasoning behind this.

[Anonymous No.18616525]

>>18616435
They can’t

[Anonymous No.18616539]

>>18616435
Because afaik shutting the pumps costs a lot more money and some pumps can't be shut down without causing damage or something ridiculous like that. Idk what's going on anymore. Drowning in oil.

[Anonymous No.18616543]

there was a spike in 2008 but i dont see how it will replicate here

[Anonymous No.18616549]

>>18616435
lol no, they cant turn it off, they would rather set it on fire

[Anonymous No.18616642]

There is no off switch.

Even if the shutdown ended completely tomorrow, the Tankers will be full for months, and charging rates 2-5x what was forecast just months ago.

This is the dream scenario for oil tankers.

[Anonymous No.18616684]

>>18616378
room temperature iq investment.
there are several factors that can actually cause tanker stocks to dump:

how much oil producers have on hand?
can they easily cut supply to avoid paying exorbitant tanker fees?
if they can cut supply, will they?
which of these tanker companies actually service WTI crude companies that have a surplus of oil?

and finally - target price to sell (depends on current market cap of tanker companies)

>just buy tanker stocks bro they did 5x in 2009, not that all investment commodity trading firms have now eyes on them, firms that employ floors of harvard phds just to analyze this shit all day

JUST incoming

[Anonymous No.18616742]

>>18616513
because, due to greedy arabs, opec with their head up their arse, worldwide pandemics etc - there is a glut of oil. This oil has to be stored somewhere. Renting a tanker just to fill and store it with oil - which maybe CANNOT be delvered as onland storage still full - usually cost $35k per day. It is currently costing $350k per day. anons point being, someone is making 10 times as much profit, per tanker, per day - and he wants a piece. The question being, how quick oil producers adapt, stop pumping moar! oil and generally adjust to reality. Because paying $350k per tanker per day to store oil that sells for -$30 a barrel - its not a long-term winning strategy

[Anonymous No.18616754]

Who builds oil tankers?

[Anonymous No.18616761]

>>18616754
people who think 5 years in advance

[Anonymous No.18616784]

>>18616742

>>18616742

Correct.

Long end of this play from an options standpoint is August tops. Immediate scenario will play out in weeks, possibly days.

[Anonymous No.18616972]

>>18616784
So selling SPY puts to buy the shit listed in OP is the move?

[Anonymous No.18617002]

>>18616435
>closing the tap

[Anonymous No.18617595]

Oil isn't stored in tankers long term. Its just transported internationally in them and from offshide [dead] oil platforms.

On land, its stored in these.

>grew up in south texas where oil is pumped, shipped, refined, stored, and transported

[Anonymous No.18617603]

>>18617595

[Anonymous No.18617620]

>>18616394
It wont. Everything is priced in it's a one time event that wont affect next years earnings. If you disagree let's see your math

[Anonymous No.18617649]

>>18616435
Oh my lord anyone who has spent more than 30 seconds researching oil markets would know this is wrong.

[Anonymous No.18617676]

>>18616378
you do realize these companies make money by transporting oil and not storing it, right? and that onshore storage has been full for a while now?

[Anonymous No.18617856]

>Transporting oil to nowhere
>OMFG BUY

lol no

[Anonymous No.18617929]

>>18617603
This one

[Anonymous No.18618064]

>>18617856
Happening right now, queues worldwide

[Anonymous No.18618065]

youre a month late dipshit

[Anonymous No.18618075]

>>18616549
>they would rather set it on fire
Why don't they do this? I mean I was reading about how the old rigs they can't even shut down or they wouldn't be able to start them again, so if it just takes a few guys to run the rig, why not just keep it running but burn it instead of paying someone to take oil?

Not only that but even if things start opening up pretty soon, it's going to take a long time to get usage up. I mean it's not like people are booking vacations.

[Anonymous No.18618347]

>tfw i get my economic info exclusively from /biz/ and zerohedge
>oil tanker storage article on zerohedge three+ weeks ago
>liberal use of the word nigger keeps the normies away
>up 40% in passive un-leveraged investments in oil tankers and gold mines in the last month

Is it really this easy?

[Anonymous No.18618568]

>>18616378
Timmy, can you point out on the chart where the big bad man touched you and tanker stocks went 5x?

I think all the tankers are full, filled up on contracts they signed where they agreed to rent it out at 40k a day.
The market is now paying 300 to 400k for that one tanker that might become available tomorrow.

The majority of tankers are now on the seas getting paid 30-40k as per they contract that they signed a month ago.
What are typical contract periods for tankers?

[Anonymous No.18618739]

Stng earnings today. Let's see what they got

[Anonymous No.18618897]

>>18617676
his point is that onshore storage is full, so there are more and more tankers that are paid to sit in docks just holding oil. This has been happening for a long time but the amount has never been as high as it is now.

[Anonymous No.18619034]

Also talking my book here but you can also consider DHT as another tanker stock. They're a VLCC (very large crude carrier) pure play as thats all their fleet contains. Main thing that I like about them is that they've got about 20% of their fleet locked into 1Y+ long contracts at current rates, which is essentially pure unrealised revenue. Rest of their ships are in short term contracts to benefit from the increasing daily rates, but the longterm contracts drop their charter breakeven rate from ~7500/day to ~2500/day. They'll have earnings released early May and then August.

[Anonymous No.18619069]

>>18616378
I'd say you're a month late

[Anonymous No.18619162]

>>18618739
Stng is a solid buy, should pump another 30% this week

[Anonymous No.18619204]

>>18617603
WTF this doesnt show up with my brokerage account.

[Anonymous No.18619255]

>>18619162
I'm wrong though. Apparently trading view just randomly claims (lies) about future earnings dates

[Anonymous No.18619285]

>>18616513
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/oil-prices-negative-why-fall-zero-coronavirus-demand-explained-a9475326.html

[Anonymous No.18619401]

>>18616487
I agree with your analysis, and I think they have further to go. I've been in tankers since they dropped in February.

However, tanker stocks pumped ~25% when oil went negative and are stalling now. What I don't understand is why it isn't continuing the upward trend, contango should be sending them straight to God. Somebody knows something I don't and it's making my trigger finger itch to lock in my profits on these options

[Anonymous No.18619698]

>>18619069
You can still buy in and make a little profit.

[Anonymous No.18619742]

>>18619698
They havent been moving much the last 2 days. It seems most of them has topped.

[Anonymous No.18619787]

>>18616435
holy shit read a book retard

[Anonymous No.18619796]

>>18617603
Buying opportunity or death rattle?

[Anonymous No.18619813]

>>18616378
Not sure about going in on calls with the premiums established here, but I’m in on individual tankers big. Great gains to be had here.

[Anonymous No.18619824]

>>18619742
Wait a few months if you.do buy in.

[Anonymous No.18619928]

>>18619824
I thought this was more of a short term thing, over a couple days.

[Anonymous No.18619948]

>>18619928
weeks*

[Anonymous No.18620264]

I am Greek and my family is in the shipping industry (Cargo). I can tell there is somewhat truth to this.

$400k / pdpr charter is unheard of, but 300k/pdpr for VLCC and ULCC is not impossible.

Some VLCC (and ULCC) tankers are currently used for storage. But only a few of the +-750 VLCC are available for storage right now.

Spot charter rates are very volatile, but currently for a 6-month time charter a rate of 120-180k USD seems possible.

Too much uncertainty, oil production may be lowered or demand my rise again sooner than expect, in both scenarios rates can easily go back to $45k. In all honestly, most VLCC's are already on a current charter and not available to be chartered at the current spot rate.

Nonetheless most shipping stocks had their bull run already in January so you are late to the party.

[Anonymous No.18620312]

>>18616513
super contango provides incentives for traders to buy super cheap front month contracts, take delivery, store the crude, and contract to sell in later months trading at much higher prices. The magnitude of the contango means traders will be willing/able to pay very high charter rates for tankers (which are likely the last bastion of oil storage available at this point) to hold the oil until delivery under the later contracts at higher prices

[Anonymous No.18620402]

>>18620264
Already invested 500k before ur post appeared, fuck off

[Anonymous No.18620463]

>>18620264

>Too much uncertainty, oil production may be lowered or demand my rise again sooner than expect, in both scenarios rates can easily go back to $45k. In all honestly, most VLCC's are already on a current charter and not available to be chartered at the current spot rate.

I dont think oil supply will be solved anytime soon. All this needs to do is go on for another month or so for most of these companies to secure incredibly lucrative rates on many ships.

[Anonymous No.18620521]

>>18619796
I dont know, but I did look into Magellan midstream and Vopak.
Stay clear of these two.
Magellan just sold a few months ago marine storage to Buckeye Partners
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/magellan-midstream-to-sell-select-marine-terminals-announces-unit-repurchase-program-300989920.html

Vopak sold most of their petroleum storage last year to First State Investments
https://www.vopak.com/newsroom/news/vopak-reached-agreement-first-state-investments-sale-terminals-algeciras-amsterdam-and

[Anonymous No.18620588]

>>18619034
>they've got about 20% of their fleet locked into 1Y+ long contracts at current rates
Where can you see this? Does this mean that the customer went into a contract and said I'll pay you a variable price, whatever the market price is instead of a contract that says I'll be paying 40k per day for a year?

If so that's yuge.

[Anonymous No.18620818]

>>18620264
Saudi Arabia is continuing to flood the market and renting more as floating storage. This isn't ending soon.

[Anonymous No.18620858]

>>18619948
>>18619928
Yeah, it's a short play, timing is key, and I don't mind giving you advice, I'm holding FRO, TNK, TK, and STNG, if you throw more money at my positions it can only help me.

Depending on the contracts the tanker companies strike strike, they will make solid money on rents, and will make money again on profit sharing when they unload. Once that happens, you'll see a quick spike but the play will be over and they'll dive like a goddamned stuka (they're the most expensive form of storage and will be emptied first) and leave a lot of sheep holding bags. With algos aggravating the problem, this will happen extremely quickly; if they don't do the same thing next month you may not have time to react if you don't have the buffer of the last two months built in

Many tanker companies are trading on their yearly highs now, so the sure thing is over, you missed that boat (no pun intended). If you want to get in now, you're essentially betting on futures tanking for at least a few months. I'd say it's a pretty good bet, but it's not without significant risk. A war, a therapy, a vaccine, further production cuts, or all of the above in some form or another could put oil right back on track, a lot can happen in the weeks these deals need to mature.

If you want hop in and take risk, watch June futures, trading closes in the third week of May. If all goes steady, sit back and enjoy your gains. However, if Brent futures don't shit the bed again approaching the last day of trading, watch your tankers like a hawk and dump them the MOMENT they stall.

[Anonymous No.18620872]

These stocks are all up 30-60% since last month. Isn't it too late for this now?

[Anonymous No.18620886]

>>18620818
Can anybody confirm that 'spot' employment means they are renting it out day by day and that if the spot price is indeed 300k per tanker, they get 300k per tanker?

[Anonymous No.18620897]

>>18620886
picrelated

[Anonymous No.18620903]

>>18616378
guys can XOM go lower than 38? what you guys think? want to go in leveraged

[Anonymous No.18620935]

I went all in on NAT & FRO

[Anonymous No.18621038]

>>18616378
Tankers skyrocketed in the past 2 days but today they're into the dumpster, pump and dump style. What's up with that?

[Anonymous No.18621146]

>>18620463

Yes, I think this period is beneficial for the oil tanker industry because unlikely that charters will not go back under operating costs and occupation rate is up too.

On average we estimate $40k as break even for VLCC's so charter signed at current rates are extremely lucrative. But they have been since the beginning of March.

Average VLCC fixtures per week as of 1 jan 2020 is just under 50, In second week of march there was a surge of 92 fixtures. Currently we almost have 700 VLCC fixtures in 2020, though last week there were only 22 VLCC charters. Spot prices surged because there is simply not enough supply of VLCCs.

As for Storage, ‘vintage’ VLCCs are now sold as storage units. While there are only few new VLCC transaction, cargo and bulk sales are pretty much non-existentt. Moreover, storage on land may be cheaper, if this is a long-term situation then rates will eventually drop.

In sum, oil production surplus will keep charter rates high but the tanker industry is volatile so it can go back to break-even level as fast as it went up. Although it is unlikely to see this happening any time soon. Other things to keep in consideration are the current occupation rate of active VLCC is high, and as fixtures at the current exorbitant charter are on the low side. On the other hand, vintage VLCC are now sold as storage. As rates go up, the profits of storing oil goes down as well.

All in all, I think most tanker stock can see a 10%-15% sustainable increase. Bear in mind, stocks were already high and Greek money made their biggest capital moves in early March. Now it is pretty much breadcrumbs with a high down-side risk. Just be careful with putting money in the shipping market right now.

[Anonymous No.18621148]

>>18620858
the baskets look like they got played out already but there are individual stocks that haven't pumped too much yet. is it higher risk to be in a basket or in a few of the laggards?

[Anonymous No.18621165]

>>18619034
I went in with the big boy pants on.
How can I keep track of these tanker prices.

[Anonymous No.18621191]

Take me to the moon boyz

[Anonymous No.18621214]

>>18621165
those are some big brass clackers you got there anon

[Anonymous No.18621231]

>>18620858
I hold FRO and TNK myself but i have been thinking of selling out for a small profit the last couple of days. Mabye i should take your approach.

[Anonymous No.18621372]

>>18620858
Thanks anon this is some valuable insight.

[Anonymous No.18621528]

>>18621165

Specialised maritime consultancy firms provide the market with most data. Keep in Mind there are about 750 active VLCC's there is no online ticker for charter rates.

Going in 5000x Holding @8.19 USD courageous but definitely viable, but the upside I see is 9.10USD at most. While it can easily drop back to 7.00 USD. You missed to boat, shipping industry is volatile and everything but transparent to outsiders.

[Anonymous No.18621673]

Better sell now that its mainstream

[Anonymous No.18621745]

>>18620858
Should I just wait until earnings to dump, or dividends, then dump? At most, I can see a 5% divvy yield, but I expect things to dump sometime after earnings because it's probably priced in that tankers will see huge gains during this quarter.

[Anonymous No.18621754]

>>18621146
>>18621231
>>18621528
I would say that these companies have been viable businesses before coronachan hit.
Now they'll just have a month or two of massive profits and afterwards they'll have decent profits.
In the case of DHT they might get rid of a lot of debt unexpectedly and come out a much healthier company in the process.

[Anonymous No.18621798]

>>18621745
Q2 earnings is my thinking.
Dump on dumb algos that buy on headlines.

[Anonymous No.18621865]

>>18616513
some gonna buy that crude when it is cheap you need tankers.
Tanker charge money for just sitting their with oil 20k a day.

[Anonymous No.18622100]

>>18621798
You might get dumped on prior to earnings. That's my concern

[Anonymous No.18622161]

>>18621798
That's a pretty long play for something like this. They announce Q2 earnings in August. Q1 earnings are announced by May. Even if the oil situation remains unchanged through then, I expect tankers to go down by then because of bullshit tweets or just building more land storage within 4 months.

[Anonymous No.18622181]

>>18621754
>>18621798
>>18620858
So the general stretegy here is buy now, or wait for further dump, and then hold until june Q2 where they publish their profits and then sell? Thinking of investing more into these american tank companies the coming days.

[Anonymous No.18622191]

FRO is mooning!
DHT not so much... looks like someone is trying to prevent it from going up. Screams beartrap.

[Anonymous No.18622213]

>>18617620

If everything is priced in, why are my FRO and TNK positions up 30% from like a 1-2 weeks ago?

Fucking bitter niggers coping with the fact they didn't get in on time

>>18619401
probably front-sold alot of the tanker leases already.

>>18621231
been holding FRO and TNK and am up 30% from 2 weeks ago. i don't believe oil demand will be restored until Q3 and tankers will continue to make increased revenue from the increased day rates of renting out tankers

[Anonymous No.18622270]

>>18621754

I wouldn't overestimate the profits, as you said yourself most profit will go to cleaning up their balance sheet.

DHT has 27 spot fixtures and 6 time charter; which is a really good set-up in current market conditions. The TCs provide a cash flow buffer while te spot fixtures are greatly benefiting the exorbitant spot rates. So it comes down to one thing: the longer the spot rate is high, the higher the average rate per day and as a result overal profit will increase incrementally as the spot market stays high. Though, we don't know when this will change. You can either go all in at once or play your 'bets' every week depending on the weekly fixtures and spot rate. I expect them to use this back wind to cleanout their balance sheet, and prepare their financials to buy 5 more ships In the coming 3 year. So this may also be reflected in the share price.

DHT is making a killing and there is still room to go higher, 9.10 USD per share is reasonable but the market is risky, especially at the current share price.

DHT is a well managed company; similar to euronav.

[Anonymous No.18622311]

>>18622270
lets say oil demand does not begin to return until July / August. what then? why would these tanker companies not be a multi-month long swing trade?

[Anonymous No.18622316]

>>18616378

If you're waiting until now to buy then you're late to the game.

[Anonymous No.18622377]

>there are anons in this thread who don't understand what a contango is

>>18622311
>july/august
Thats basically already the priced in expectation.

>>18620588
>where can you see this
Was in a company statement a few weeks ago.

[Anonymous No.18622378]

>>18622316
i bought on mon how fucked am i.

[Anonymous No.18622515]

>>18618075
>What are environmental fines

[Anonymous No.18622536]

>>18622378

Not that fucked. Might go up a little, might crab, but you'll have time to sell before this is over. You just won't make them ridiculous gainz.

[Anonymous No.18622564]

>>18620903
i hope it retests 31

[Anonymous No.18622575]

>>18622311

>>18622311

Prices are already high because you are late to the party. Like I said before, smart money loaded up in March. Now only breadcrumbs are left. Buying at current rate is not worth the risk.

[Anonymous No.18622604]

>>18622213
Priced in refers to this specific instant in time. At a future instant, things then will be priced in accordingly.

[Anonymous No.18622681]

>>18622161
Tanker rates themselves move with the oil contango.
Today the oil contango between the june contract and the september contract is 12 dollars.
A VLCC stores a bit above 2 million barrels, let's say 2 to be conservative.
If you buy the 2 million barrels in the june contract now and sell short the september one, you'll have 24 million dollars in your hand.
This is enough to pay 266000/day for 90 days to rent a tanker. Thus the price to actually rent a tanker for 90 days will not be above that but close to that price.
When land storage becomes widely available, a lot of traders will start to make this trade and will push the spread down.
Now as said, normal rates are 40k/day for a VLCC (this is for transportation purposes) or differently put, 2 cents/day/barrel or put yet another way, 60 cents/day/barrel.
Whenever the spread between the current contract and a future contract is bigger than this, traders will want to start bidding on tankers, trying to outbid those that just want tankers for transportation and tanker rates will be higher than normal.
I think we should keep an eye on the spread between the contracts and when these spreads narrow, then this will mean that tankers rate will drop and this MIGHT mean that your tanker stock will drop as well.

However, if say a tanker company is now raking in the cash 5 times as fast as usual and this situation holds for a month or two, these profits might not get priced in by the market in the same timeframe.

[Anonymous No.18622900]

>>18618075
On top of that there's like 5 billion barrels of oil in storage now.
Unloading that is the equivalent of one extra saudi arabia producing for 1 year and a half.
Off course world storage will never drop to zero but even unloading 1 or 2 billion to return to normal is quite an extra amount.

I think people are underestimating the severity of the situation. This never happened before.
In 2008 oil crashed from 130 to 30 bucks, but it went to 130 because there was almost no oil left in storage (I'm assuming here) and the recession just brought relief to this with a period of weak demand.
Now we went from years of weak demand or oversupply due to the shale oil boom to a period of extreme oversupply.

[Anonymous No.18623163]

>>18622575
>>18622604


I was actually already holding FRO and TNK and am up about 30%. I was thinking of increasing my shares and holding for 1-3 months as storage continues to fill and maybe some of the contracts on some already-rented VLCCs expires and they can be re-rented at 10x the rate as we're seeing today

then again what the fuck do i know

[Anonymous No.18623342]

>>18623163
If you’re confident in your strat, go for it. I’m just learning about the space so I’m not qualified to judge

[Anonymous No.18623374]

>>18620264
dont know if you're still in the thread but I want to start a career as a shipbroker. where do i start?

[Anonymous No.18623426]

The time to buy was in march when everything dipped, we're getting close to the peak when we unload the bags on morons who see the shit on the news

[Anonymous No.18623479]

>>18618347
Yes, as long as you can anticipate trends you will make money by buying low and selling at the peak. If you react to trends you will end up buying high and then panic selling to get out.

[Anonymous No.18623624]

>>18623426

the time to buy was March, yes, and some of us did. the question i have is:

FRO and TNK will report earnings in late May, and then again in late August. Is the play to sell around May earnings, or August? Even if we cured coronavirus TODAY and opened up the world TODAY, how long will it take for oil demand to make a comeback? We could still have full storage going into July / August, meaning those companies will be able to report higher revenues coming from the 10x tanker rates they've been able to charge for months. Plus shareholders get dividends, dont forget.

I feel like people in this thread are saying the play was for May, but I'm not so sure. This could be come a 4-month swing trade if the oil glut continues into Q3. Do we want to cash out in May, or keep holding until August for potentially more gains? Oil demand will not bounceback over night

[Anonymous No.18623702]

>>18623624
Wait until Jim Cramer tells people to buy tanker stocks and then dump them

[Anonymous No.18623807]

>>18622681
What sites do you guys use for info? I use some normie shit. Hellenic shipping news. Also since many ships are being used as storage when demand kicks back up wont prices be elevated to carry oil?

[Anonymous No.18623811]

>>18623702
they were talking about tanker stocks on foxbusiness monday when oil futures plummeted. since then stocks have leveled out, but still climbing 1-2% each day. im still holding

guys if this oil glut continues, we could see FRO @ $14/share in a month or 2... it's at 10.90 right now. i'm going through this thread and people seem to think it's too late and everything is priced in, but i'm not sure it is...

[Anonymous No.18623828]

>>18623624
I'm going for august.
I think this is a big play with more than 20% to be made from this.
Most tankers are just at january prices.
Why?
Their business was not shut down, they didnt lose any revenue, instead now they are gaining. Massively.
If amazon rallies 25% wrt new years on 30% higher revenue (of which not all profits)
Then tankers should rally more on 300% higher revenue (all profit)

[Anonymous No.18623891]

>>18623811
I dunno anon the fucking floor can fall out with some real opec news. I'm in pretty deep and dont want to see these gains evaporate

[Anonymous No.18623899]

>>18617603
damn nigga im finna thinking of doin this one dog

[Anonymous No.18623930]

>>18623624
>>18622681
From what this anon is saying, if you bought in late March or even early April, you should be good holding until August earnings, but buying in now is risky, because there is very little upside for a hold, but plenty of room to drop. Personally, I sold covered calls of half of my holdings near the money that still gives me 30% profit if they execute, and riding out the other half until August.

[Anonymous No.18624101]

>>18616784

Why would options have a longer profitable timeframe than spot? Very new to trading here.

[Anonymous No.18624163]

>>18623374

If you are young, you'll first get an master in maritime finance or MBA. Then you will have to look for consultancy firm that provides such services. It is a small world dominated by Greeks, if you are Greek and fluent in English, you have a competitive edge.

The thing is, it is one small network most shipbrokers became shipbrokers simply because they know many ship owners. It is all about knowing the right people.

Working as a shipbroker, means working for a consultancy firm. Unless you have the capital and connections to start your own firm.

[Anonymous No.18624486]

>>18624163
im neither very young nor do i speak greek. I speak fluent Chinese though.

I was looking at the ICS institute of chartered shipbrokers exams is it worth it to have that? or do most shipbrokers not have it?

who are the ship owners? not just oil tankers, dry bulk, anything. they can't all be greek.

[Anonymous No.18624622]

>>18616378
oil is kill, these fags are just going to dump it in the ocean anyways. Sell everything and move into shorts, this is like the titanic x1000

[Anonymous No.18624682]

>>18624622
If they dump in the ocean that'll more more space to rent for billions. Bullish for tankers. People on the ground can't dump because they'll be caught too easily. The fines are one thing, but the public opinion blow will be even worse. That shit kills companies.

[Anonymous No.18625123]

I'm thinking FRO share price is going to continue to creep up until the oil glut starts to decline months from now. like 1-3% a week for the next 4-8 weeks

[Anonymous No.18625161]

Just loaded up on NAT FRO and TK. See y'all on the yacht in 6 months.

[Anonymous No.18625204]

One thing you all seem to be forgetting (at least I couldn't find with ctrl+f) is that the cost of fuel is next to nothing. Not only are revenues way up, but the costs are also way down.

[Anonymous No.18625328]

>>18624486
Chinese, Korean and Japanese are good languages as well because they are the biggest ship manufacturers. Of course, any self-respecting company will buy Korean or Japanese. China made hauls are fucking terrible, but they still sell.
The ICS qualification is very good introductory program and highly appreciated by the shipping industry in Europe. If you have worked in the financial or consultancy sector this can be a useful steppingstone to the shipping industry.
If you have no professional experience related to finance, law, consultancy, shipping, ... this qualification has its limited use. You are better of getting a master in (shipping) finance or an LLM in finance or Maritime law. Those two are what most consultancy firms are looking for. Also working in Asia, UK/US degrees are highly valued because this is important for a firm's imago.
So, if you have prior professional experience then do the ICS exam. Other the ICS also offers a 1-year Professional Maritime Programme which is much more valuable. Ideally you have professional experience as a consultant, lawyer, or in finance; do the ICS exam and/or full program.
Where do you life? Ideally you work in Singapore, Shanghai or Hong Kong if you want to cater to the Asians. On the other hand, you can also find work in NY, London, Rotterdam and Antwerp at some selected firms who work want to tap into the Asian market. I genuinely think that your Chinese will be most valued in Europe due to a lack of Chinese speaking consultants.
Finally, why Greek? Greeks own roughly (in)officially 24% of the world’s commercial fleet. Many shipping company are fully owned by one Greek family thus being Greek helps.

[Anonymous No.18625552]

>>18625204

Bunkers are in principle only included in Voyage Charters, in TCs an BCs the charterer will have to pay the bunker costs. So this has no impact on shipowners unless the fixture says otherwise.

[Anonymous No.18625557]

FUCK BROS THEY'RE TALKING ABOUT VLCC STORAGE ON FOXBUSINESS

IS THIS A SELL SIGNAL?

[Anonymous No.18625789]

>>18625328
thank you for that. this is good info. I would be working in London I think but singapore sounds nice.

what if I have no qualifications, would I be able to study the shipping business and start shipbroking independently? what are the basic tools I need? software, contacts lists?

[Anonymous No.18626002]

>>18625789

If you have no prior experience then you should check maritime consultancy firms in the City and see what their hiring requirements are.

I think that if you do the ICS exam, preferably full program, you meet the requirements. You want to sell yourself as a Chinese-English speaking person. You also have smaller coordination offices who work for one shipowner, but these are usually in Piraeus.

Starting independently without a network and experience is close to impossible.

[Anonymous No.18626132]

>>18616378
Thoughts on TRMD?

[Anonymous No.18626317]

>>18626002
That and nobody trusts chinks. I can’t imagine why

[Anonymous No.18626339]

Oh fuck npr did an article on oil tankers. Normie money might be maxing

[Anonymous No.18626461]

>>18626317
nobody trusts them because if you dont speak their language they can seem inscrutable and alien. but they're just normal people.

[Anonymous No.18626486]

>>18626002
the ICS exam alone is enough?
tell me more about these coordination offices.

[Anonymous No.18626545]

>>18626461
Lol'd hard. I see you've never actually had to interact with chinks outside your language classes yet.

[Anonymous No.18626575]

>>18616435
They can't

[Anonymous No.18626610]

>>18626002
ela re patrida, se poion eisai ?
Fellow greek working in danish dry bulk company, avoid shipping companies at all cost

[Anonymous No.18626745]

Is this correct?
>russia and saudi arabia disagree on pricing contract causes excess supply in price war
>companies max out on oil orders b/c negative prices at end of april contract
>companies will receive free oil + cash for entire may contract because no storage
>shipping services will increase in price because of increase in demand
>companies will have reduced operating costs but little demand from buyers
>companies stock value goes down a lot because of expenses
>shipping services stock value will spike may contract before going back to normal for the june contract

[Anonymous No.18626815]

>>18616378
>Where they have been making 30,000 to 40,000 per day they are now making 300,000 to 400,000.
Why would they be making more of these when there is no demand?

[Anonymous No.18626881]

>>18616378
>FRO
kek thats literally just hit top and is only going down from here.

[Anonymous No.18626973]

>>18626815
>>18626881
Ah, the chromosome thief. I've finally found you.

[Anonymous No.18627006]

>>18626973
hey bagholder, i'm not buying the top of your wick

[Anonymous No.18627197]

>>18617603
>TK
PLEASE SOME KIND OF BUNKER OR I'M FUCKED uWu

[Anonymous No.18627270]

>>18621673
Good attitude mah guy :3
we will make it

[Anonymous No.18627320]

>>18626881

FRO is going to 14$/sh and you're basically fucking retarded. this glut is lasting for 3 months at least. enjoy your nogainz

[Anonymous No.18627634]

>>18626486

Coordination offices only do charters but not provide any other services. Typically smaller vessels are chartered through. They do not have the resources to provide full fledged services to bigger companies. Basically, these kind of companies are the easiest to get into because of the low skill requirement. Basically you will be picking up the phone all day. Although, you are better of working in a full fledged maritiem consultant firm.

Is the ICS exam alone enough? Eventually it will all come down to your ability to sell yourself to a company. Ideally you have some knowledge and qualification, be it the ICS exam or full program. No company would hire someone who doesn't know what they are doing.

Maritime consultancy and finance is serious business, this is not just something you can do without the proper background. Start with the ICS, ask them question about how to start your career in shipping. Shipbroking is quite broad, so you'll have to start somewhere. A firm will hire you and will put you on small account first, probably arrange bunkers or supramax size charters. VCLL and UCLL are high level fixtures, you won't be doing such transactions anytime soon.


>>18626002

ti leei? ego eimai anon (;

Yes, stay the fuck out of shipping if you're not in the shipping industry, you have no clue what you're getting yourself into.

[Anonymous No.18627686]

>>18626461
I speak passable mandarin and if anything I trust them less now that I can understand what they’re saying

[Anonymous No.18627792]

>>18627320
kek you actually bought the top didnt you

[Anonymous No.18627837]

>>18616487
>>18616525
>>18616539
>>18616549
>>18617002
>>18617649
>>18619787
>>18626575

>Bro they're going to keep pumping at a loss and go bankrupt because they don't trust each other

You guys are retarded

[Anonymous No.18627942]

>>18627792
i got in at 8.12$/share
up about 35% and got another 40% to climb. nigger

[Anonymous No.18627960]

>>18627837
>then there's this fucking retard

it is more costly to shut down an oil well than to just keep pumping and burn the extra gas

[Anonymous No.18627977]

>>18627960
yeah that's why oil companies are going under and oil is sitting in pipelines

[Anonymous No.18628223]

So has anyone actually bought the calls?

Post positions please

[Anonymous No.18628283]

Day 1

[Anonymous No.18628300]

Whats your guys' opinion on DHT/TNP calls?

[Anonymous No.18628403]

>>18628300
Would like to hear this as well

[Anonymous No.18628428]

>>18616435
If you shut down an oil well it seizes up and requires expensive work to restart

[Anonymous No.18628431]

>>18616378
How and who do i long on plus500. Tried to get my reagents shipped out of China for ny cosmetic company and was quoted $50 USD a kilogram shipped (not even fucking airfreight but by sea). I have 60kg of product i need shipped out. FML . I want to long every single logistics freight company in the next few months..

[Anonymous No.18628440]

Thoughts on FANG, HES and DKL? Not really tankers but figured this is the most oily thread around.

[Anonymous No.18628461]

>>18616684
>Harvard PHDs
So morons? Gotcha

[Anonymous No.18628495]

>>18628428
Sounds cheaper than building tankers to store something that has negative value

[Anonymous No.18628514]

>>18628495
Depends entirely on time horizon. If you think oil will be fixed within a year, no it's not. If it will definitely take more than a year, yes.

[Anonymous No.18628558]

>>18628495
All about timeframes. In the short term it's better to bite the bullet on expensive tanker storage then spend the capital to shut down and restart thousands or tens of thousands of wells.
>>18628514

[Anonymous No.18628578]

>>18627977

SHALE oil companies are going under, that's it. and that's by design, thats what Saudi and Russia want to happen so they can capture more market share and reduce the US's stronghold in oil

[Anonymous No.18628597]

>>18628514
Exactly, companies are now looking to inject oxygen into oil wells to produce hydrogen at $0.10-50 per kg. Japan has completely shifted towards hydrogen technology as a future.

Oil dipped not just because of an over saturated market, it dropped because it is going to be worthless in the next decade.

[Anonymous No.18628666]

>>18628578
No Russia and the Saudi's are in the price war with each other. None of them trusted each other to cut production. The Saudi's are the one who are going to suffer most because MBS will probably get lynched in the street. They have no one going to mecca, they have no oil money coming in so the longer this lasts the more fucked they are.

[Anonymous No.18628724]

>>18628283
LETS GET LETS GO LETS GO

[Anonymous No.18628748]

>>18628597
>Oil dipped not just because of an over saturated market, it dropped because it is going to be worthless in the next decade.

[Anonymous No.18628749]

Also Brent will likely crash because the asian market is now being flooded

[Anonymous No.18628751]

>>18628666
>Putin is hiring Satan to do psyops now.

[Anonymous No.18628765]

>>18628748
>i'll post a wojak because i have no argument and don't understand the energy sector

[Anonymous No.18628864]

>>18628597
You do know you can do a fuck ton more with oil than just making it into gas right?

[Anonymous No.18628888]

>>18628597
Japan has no natural resources to speak of

[Anonymous No.18628919]

>>18628748
That's actually the Saud's strategy. They're trying to push all non-OPEC producers out of the market so they can dominate the market as demand tapers over the next 10-20y.

[Anonymous No.18628944]

>>18628919
Peak demand won’t happen until the world population peaks. You need to tell Africans to stop pooping out babies

[Anonymous No.18628993]

>>18628864
Yes I understand that over half of the waste from fuel production is turned into other goods. The supply for those goods is much lower than the amount extracted. Coupled with the electrolysis hydrogen extraction method we will still be swimming in oil. So the value of sweet and sour crude will continue to stay low.

>>18628888
And? You think a country with no natural resources isn't going to posture into destroying the energy sector with clean fuel?

[Anonymous No.18629003]

>>18616378
Based and crude oil storage pilled

[Anonymous No.18629343]

Personally I put down a 10.01 call on NAT for the 15th, hopefully I can make some bank.

[Anonymous No.18629452]

>>18628993
Whats your guys take on natural gas companies like OKE?

[Anonymous No.18629493]

>>18621528
Never underestimate the morons on /biz to think they're experts on an industry after 5 minutes of googling. LOL. A lot of the anons in this thread are gonna get dryfucked hard.

[Anonymous No.18629505]

>>18629452
I think NG will def make some moves but remember that NG takes infrastructure. I'd def say it has potential tho for at least a bit of increase in the medium term

[Anonymous No.18629883]

>>18628749
Crash when? I’m holding this

[Anonymous No.18631263]

Thanks /biz/

Gonna make some money now

[Anonymous No.18631326]

>mfw i aint got shit to invest in
ill just wait till the next crash guys

[Anonymous No.18631746]

>>18628993
>have no energy resources
>try and push your very expensive agenda on countries with energy resources
More power to them, but just because Japan may be willing to sink untold sums into converting their infrastructure to hydrogen doesn’t mean anyone else will. Europe is also trying but both are places with essentially zero demand growth for energy going forward.

[Anonymous No.18631890]

>>18622270
Should I buy a 1 month put on DHT for a 9 dollar call?

[Anonymous No.18631900]

>>18631746
Ignore that retard, Japan is heavily invested in LNG and the world's #1 importer of it.

[Anonymous No.18631917]

>>18631890
>1 month put on DHT for a 9 dollar call

wat

[Anonymous No.18631982]

>>18629883
couple weeks i'd say

>>18629452
>>18629505
The entire point of this oil price war is that Russia has huge supply lines which get their oil further for much less than the saudis. The saudis have to load up the tankers and get them where they need to be safely.

Natural gas dipped at the end of last year and I can't see it going back up with oil the way it is.

>>18631746
No you misunderstand. Japan isn't converting infrastructure. They are developing the technology with will make petroleum irrelevant. The only infrastructure that will change will be at oil deposits which will be generating hydrogen and alcohol on much larger scales. Vehicles will shift to hydrogen and alcohol. We have already been adapting to use ethanol and this will just make it easier.

>>18631900
Tell the METI that and then pretend that the meeting at the start of the year didn't exist retard.

[Anonymous No.18631991]

>>18631917
Kek, I started two different sentences. I mean a 1 month 9 dollar call

[Anonymous No.18632078]

>>18631900
True, and in the absence of nuclear power they’ll become even more reliant on it

>>18631982
I don’t follow your logic. They’re developing the technology to render petroleum obsolete by converting it into inferior fuels and they’re not bothering to adapt their infrastructure to this petroleum free future?

[Anonymous No.18632229]

>>18632078
They aren't going to be converting anything. They've been working with other countries for years to help produce hydrogen for them. Using electrolysis you can convert closed/unprofitable oil wells into hydrogen and alcohol producers. This drives down the price of hydrogen to a viable fuel source. Then with the materials science that japan has been working on with the west.

Japan and the world isn't as reliant on petroleum as you would think. This coronavirus lockdown has shown how delicate the petroleum market actually is.

[Anonymous No.18632243]

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/tanker-market-rates-22-04-2020/

Todays rates are pretty absurd. If this continues for just 1 month I'm sure all these tanker companies are be healthy as fuck coming out of this.

[Anonymous No.18632271]

i dont know anything about puts or calls or any of that.

is longing any of this, i guess that means just buying stock normally, in the hopes it will go back to pre-covid numbers just as viable as shorting or whatever?

just looking to put a couple thousand into some of these and sell when they're high.

[Anonymous No.18632440]

>>18632271
They're a mid term play. July-August is probably when you'd want to sell. Q1 earnings are going to be great, Q2 will be AMAZING. Some companies like TNP may make their entire market cap in profit during Q1-Q3. Undervalued is an understatement.

[Anonymous No.18632588]

>>18632229
Please elaborate on how they’ll make use of this cheap hydrogen, specifically how they’ll move it around without the infrastructure to do so. It’s not trivial

[Anonymous No.18632780]

what will exxon and bp stocks look like in 3 years

[Anonymous No.18633052]

>>18629493
I went all in on a bunch of tanker stocks anon's recommended without even googling them, i have faith in /biz/ to see me through.

or ima be out my entire savings, either way its gonna be a hell of a ride.

[Anonymous No.18633170]

how long does it take to build a tanker ship? these ships are usually for transportation so what happens when all these ships are filled with oil with nowhere to go? there must be a current limit to much how oil these tankers hold until new ones are built

are there any other companies that hold oil on land?

[Anonymous No.18633281]

>>18633170
Ship building takes years especially with something that big, if they have no where to go they just sit in a port or somewhere offshore where they charge for storing that oil, and yes there are places that store on land similar to a grain silo. If you look around for a bit you'll find some anon shilling NuStar options.

[Anonymous No.18633306]

>>18633170
You'll find the anon shilling NuStar here:
>>18617603

[Anonymous No.18633423]

ha. i remember nustar. two of their oil containers blew up by my house a few months back... bet they wish they had those, lol

my question is whether a bunch of third world countries are building janky fucking oil storage tanks rn? and getting their stockpiles of empty barrels ready

[Anonymous No.18634749]

>>18632229
>This coronavirus lockdown has shown how delicate the petroleum market actually is.

Because demand was forcibly removed.

[Anonymous No.18635684]

>>18616684
>which of these tanker companies actually service WTI crude companies
Where can one find this out?

[Anonymous No.18635722]

>>18616378
Bullshit FRO in the Chainlink stock of /biz

[Anonymous No.18635751]

>>18618347
>>18623479
Will be here more often now.

[Anonymous No.18635755]

>>18635722
Goin all in then.

[Anonymous No.18635847]

>>18627006

Because the oil industry just can't stop pumping the oil like how you other industries can stop their production. They have to keep pumping so they have to store the oil in some place, which in this case are the tankers.

[Anonymous No.18635859]

>>18627634
>No company would hire someone who doesn't know what they are doing.

What are diversity quotas?

[Anonymous No.18635992]

>>18628888
>>18631746
>>18632588
Japan is heavily reliant on importing fossil fuels to keep it's large industrial economy ticking over. In a world that is turning increasingly away from fossil fuels. Japan isn't well suited to renewable energy and is going to have to find a way to keep importing chemical energy from somewhere else. And for that they've seen an opportunity in hydrogen, it provides a way to source chemical energy that isn't necessarily made from fossil fuels, is abundant and it puts them at the technological forefront of a potentially massive industry. They're working with Australia to source hydrogen from coal initially, and if successful to then start looking at using renewables in Australia to create Hydrogen for export. Hydrogen could be the way of trading surplus renewable energy from places that can produce an excess of it efficiently to places that can't like Japan, South Korea and other densely populated energy hungry economies.

As far as I am aware hydrogen can be pumped through current natural gas grids fairly easy or at least with relatively minor modifications. The Netherlands is starting to experiment with it as they see the value in becoming a hydrogen hub for NW Europe/Germany.

[Anonymous No.18637275]

>>18633306
Im the anon who posted the original image.

Other anons have saved it and are sharing it now

[Anonymous No.18637436]

>>18616513
>>18616754
>>18620858
>>18621038
>>18621865
>>18622681
>>18635684

Tankers are used for moving oil around overseas and exporting/importing.

When it arrives on land, it has to go through pipelines and is also stored in large holding tanks that are much larger than tanker ships (see: >>18617603)


Why not invest in these on land storage tanks and pipelines rather than export/import dependant tanker ships?

Also...offshore/deepsea drilling is expensive compared to shale. They are caput until price of oil comes back up.

[Anonymous No.18637498]

>>18637436
Anyone else besides NuStar to invest in?

[Anonymous No.18637544]

>>18617603
should i go in on nustar?
i might

[Anonymous No.18637546]

>>18637498
Thats only one i see basically everywhere here in texas.

Large oil companies (i.e. Exxon, Valero, etc) have their own storage capacity and pipelines. But they are exposed to alot more risk becausd they do alot related to discovery and production.

Nustar specializes only in transport, storage, and buy/sell and only has like 1k employees.
So risk seems much more minimized and seem like a more lean and agile company that can capitalize on changes quicker.

I'm looking for similar companies to add to my portfolio as well.

[Anonymous No.18637622]

>>18637546
Thanks fren

[Anonymous No.18637784]

>>18637275
Do we know rates of storage? Are they hedged longer term? I see a large debt maturity coming. Is this shit factored in? I just did a small bit of research. It would help to know what storage prices are currently, what they were last year, and what they will possibly be.
Tankers seem easier to calculate this

[Anonymous No.18638081]

>>18637784

[Anonymous No.18638195]

>>18638081
Thanks. I'll keep digging. Not that I don't trust you. I understand the storage on land is valuable. Just I understand the daily rates on ships a lot better. I've been in FRO at 8.09 and have a shit ton on May 10$ calls. i also hold Aug $10 and $14.

[Anonymous No.18638236]

>>18638195
>Trust
>Message board centered around anonymity and anime

[Anonymous No.18638282]

Ok fellow /biz/lets.
I got one for you.
ADS crude.
It's norwegian.
Due to a hit to the norwegian kroner it didnt rally as hard as the others.
It's small (3 supertankers)
It's cheap (66 mil)
And they are making loads of cash.
Pretty much a no brainer.

[Anonymous No.18638316]

>>18637546
oil companies are bleeding dry. they're not going to engage nustar for storage expansion. nustar's business won't pick back up until oil prices rise, and even then it's unlikely to be that great because corporate policy will have strangled (and will continue to strangle) capex projects.

[Anonymous No.18638317]

[Anonymous No.18638320]

>>18638236
If u sort through the shit u sometimes find gems. I told all you fags to buy tankers a fuckin month ago and now you idiots are asking about it. That's usually my sell signal and I'm looking for another avenue

[Anonymous No.18638325]

>>18638282
Yeah but are the 3 super tankers already contracted out

[Anonymous No.18638371]

>>18638282
It seems to be already priced in, that's really high.

[Anonymous No.18638382]

>>18638325
I've read so, for 72000. Was just a tweet looking for confirmation.

[Anonymous No.18638398]

>>18638316
No

Oil companies are operating at a loss because cheap oil prices.

They cant just "stop pumping".

Its like a siphon. Once the flow is going, you cant stop or the suction losses pressure and oil well drys up (oil level falls). Its then a bitch to get it flowing again.

So oil companies are continuing to pump at minimumal levels and they have to put oil somewhere quickly.
Hence..whey they are PAYING people to take oil away.

Nustar is in position to literally get paid to pipe oil away and store it. Which they then resell once price goes up.

[Anonymous No.18638466]

>>18638398
where are producers and transporters getting the money for storage expansion? their non-existent cash reserves? debt from banks that clamped down on lending standards? hopes and dreams?

[Anonymous No.18638682]

>>18638382
Well that's not even that high anon?

[Anonymous No.18638850]

>>18638282
>>18638325
>>18638371
I actually just called them and got the CFO on the line, lol.
Quite a talkative chap. 20 minutes holy hell.
So they have 1 vessel contracted out for a 6 month period at 69k.
https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/ads-crude-carriers-wins-strong-term-rate-for-veteran-vlcc/2-1-783550

The other two are doing spot contracts (these are usually for 1 month, 1 month and a half) and they are in the south china sea (singapore), middle east region, usually.

1 is coming in next week to finish its contract, the other early may.

They are keeping their eyes out for longer term contracts so they will not say that they will always operate 2 in the spot market its just the way it is now.

He said their tankers are quite old, 2002 build, and that most of the long term (1 year, 2 year contracts) go to newer vessels.

He also said to get the VLCC app, that the rates there are often pretty close to reality (but that it sometimes has small mistakes or doesnt get a spot contract)

[Anonymous No.18638884]

>>18638850
So they probably won't be able to get a hold on those long-term contracts, eh?

[Anonymous No.18638902]

>>18638850
Can you get the CFO of racism on the line? I have some new ideas I wanna share.

[Anonymous No.18639048]

>>18638850
Too small...might be good for them but for a share holder ur limited. You want the biggest ships possible at current rates. Fro, tnk shit like that.
Again, good for them but I wouldn't invest on that. This might help them grow bigger but ur here for money now.

[Anonymous No.18639208]

What makes this oil surplus different from the 2015-2016 oil surplus? These tanker companies didn't do well then.

[Anonymous No.18639351]

>>18638850

I don't know the full context and what company you are talking about. Longer TC's are usually for <5 y.o vessels. A ship build is 2002 is ready to be scrapped, any vessel older than 15 years will have to be docked every 2 years for maintenance. If a company's fleet has too many +15 years ships (relative to their <5 years ships) that is a bad sign.

[Anonymous No.18639424]

>>18635859

Fair point. I can't argue with that.

[Anonymous No.18639450]

>>18616378
>Oil Tanker Stocks are going to skyrocket over the coming weeks
yea right when no one needs oil because 90% of the economy is fucked..

[Anonymous No.18639471]

>>18638884
No, but they will get two lucrative spot contracts (45 days at 200k) in these market conditions (if it holds for two more weeks)

Their current spot contracts were made over a month ago at almost 90k a day.

So even if this bubble deflates again in 6 months they'll have 2 contracts 45 days at 90k, 2 contracts 45 days at 200k, 2 contracts 45 days 90k and 1 contract 180 days at 69k.

Thats 47 million USD in revenue in 6 months for a company with an mcap of 66 million USD.

[Anonymous No.18639498]

Oil tanker guy here.
Op is half right. It is a great time for Tankers day rate through the roof to store all this shit.

Here's the problem. The day rates started rising back in January after lows.

It's too late to get in now. You would be buying high. Yes it's going to go higher but by how much is highly questionable.

Rates will stay up through the end of the June contract but after that it's anything goes. Once production goes way up day rates will fall.

Do not buy high. If you aren't in this already it's too late to get in.

[Anonymous No.18639516]

>>18639351
ADS crude carriers, new company.
>>18638282
Only three carriers, all 18 years old.
I dont think the premium of new vs old matters as much in this age of the oil glut as it does during normal circumstances.

[Anonymous No.18639591]

>>18629493

Well, I am not here to give people advice, but I can share my opinion. Mot people in /biz/ gamble with their money and are completely clueless, I am just pointing out that the shipping industry is not just 'free money'. Investing in shipping industry is, and always has been, very risky. Little transparency and highly susceptible to changes in the global economy.

I rest my case: don't invest in shipping if you are not active in the sector yourself.

[Anonymous No.18639973]

>>18629493
/biz/ made me wealthy, newfag.
Lurk moar.

[Anonymous No.18640226]

>>18639516

I checked the company, this is a typical holding company with leveraged subsidiaries combined with a debt push down. Basically you're financing a very risky project.

So they lent money from a bank, then inject capital into a SPV to buy the ship. Now, I can already tell you that a part of the income that goes to the subsidiaries will disappear in the pockets of their 'directors' and 'consultants'.

Furthermore the ships are build in 2002 and the company was incorporated in 2018, at a 20 years life expectancy that means all loans for the purchase of the fleet is due in 2022. Whether they make a killing now or not they will have to discharge their debts, notwithstanding the fact that some of that debt may be convertible. These kind of loans also have profit distribution covenants so their dividend will be limited. Don't expect to see a big pay out. Furthermore, we don't know the lasting impact of covid-19 so they will have to keep a financial buffer, which again will be in the SLA.

[Anonymous No.18640903]

>>18635992
Which companies can we invest in related to Hydrogen? Is there a resource I can learn more? This sounds fascinating, I'd love to learn more about it.

[Anonymous No.18640912]

>>18640226
Ok thanks, i'm just going to hold for a couple of months instead of buying more which i was contemplating.
But still the one contract for 180 days at 69k is enough to pay back half of the debt needed to pay for that ship. If they're smart they'll use the extra money to buy invest in newer ships rather than in more ships because after the glut has been spread out over all the world, the need for tankers is going to stay low for a couple of years.

[Anonymous No.18640974]

>>18640912
Could someone explain why my bets from yesterday are mooning? Some of them seem heavily into exploration (HES, FANG), so shouldn't they be tanking? Do they magically have storage nobody knows about? Trump said they're saving HES on April 15, it's far back enough that this should be priced in already.

[Anonymous No.18640982]

>>18627686
thats because you only speak passable mandarin. I grew up around chinese people and they're just normal people to me.

[Anonymous No.18640996]

>>18640974
Didn't mean to quote you m80

[Anonymous No.18641013]

>>18640982
Be honest, you're a chinksectoid yourself aren't you?

[Anonymous No.18641022]

>>18641013
no. i had expat parents.

[Anonymous No.18641073]

>>18616539
Oil companies lose their lose if they stop producing in paying quantities

[Anonymous No.18641335]

>>18627634
Iplan to do the ICS next year in London. you are right though, I should probably phone them first and see if I'm cut out for it and what career options look like.

[Anonymous No.18641486]

>>18635992
You’re incorrect about piping hydrogen through natural gas infrastructure at more than about 5% hydrogen by volume. The transport of hydrogen from Australia (or anywhere) requires incredibly expensive hardware to cool and pressurize the hydrogen. Investing in this while oil is cheap is like throwing your money away, but do what you want

[Anonymous No.18641519]

Oh cool! I took the advice of /biz and bout $250 worth of FRO $13 call options that expire May 15 and I'm already down 20% within 2 hours! This is fantastic, thanks guys!

[Anonymous No.18641611]

>>18641519
Kek same anon. I bought DHT too and it's down 7%

>buy high sell low

[Anonymous No.18641710]

>>18641519
Shippers are rough man...takes thick skin. Stick it out

[Anonymous No.18642075]

>>18641519
Lmao noob, I only lost $10 on a $1000 worth of FRO stocks! I WIIIIIIN!
But for real guys what the fuck happened? Squeezy squeeze? Time to buy back in?

[Anonymous No.18642205]

>>18641519
Lost 80 bucks so far on NAT.

[Anonymous No.18642667]

>>18641611
Losing money feels so much better when others are losing with you. This is such a comfy ride to a quick total loss.

[Anonymous No.18642696]

>>18642205
I'm 15% up on NAT so far and it's still green today. When did you buy to register a loss?

[Anonymous No.18642817]

>>18642667
See you at $0 fren

[Anonymous No.18642896]

Biz has the attention span of a gnat.
This is a 6 month play, not a one day play.

[Anonymous No.18642899]

welp, im fucking lost, dow is rising, oil is rising, tankers are dropping, how the fuck am i supposed to not lose my money in this clown market? is the dow going to crash still? are tankers still going to go up later? is oil going to drop or keep rising, wtf am i supposed to do?

[Anonymous No.18643020]

>>18642896
Explain more plox. Lots of those companies are already at or near ath, what's the upside like? I mean I know spot prices is going 10x and all, but what does that mean for say, pipelines and why are they, at any point in time, going down 10% in a single day? Even if cargo is being unloaded, it's just an opportunity to increase rent.

[Anonymous No.18643213]

I bought 500 more shares of FRO at 10.21.
Tankers fuckin suck. Stick to the plan. Earnings will crush. Dividend will literally be at like 40percent. Oil is still pumping. Tankers fuckin suck trading and people's stops got fuckin taken out but load up. This is your chance. Fro will be 14-18$ by Aug min

[Anonymous No.18643319]

>>18643213
Better to load up on calls perhaps given it's so unstable?

[Anonymous No.18643386]

>>18643319
I got may $10 and Aug $14

[Anonymous No.18643419]

>>18616378
Why would people pay more money to shuffle valueless stock around? I can kind of see it, but without demand there's going to be less production. We're already seeing the high cost-of-operation sites going into mothballs. With less oil to move there would be less contracts to move it.
Also nobody is going to pay a premium to move an asset that has no value.
I expect there's a rush to expand current storage operations, but it feels like a leap to believe they're going to randomly start mass shipping crude all over the place.

[Anonymous No.18643458]

>>18639973
>I've been here since 2019, newfag

[Anonymous No.18643505]

I'll give u guys a tip. FRO earnings are right before options expiration. If ur a gambler buy may out of money now. If earnings rip, with guidance, you hit big

[Anonymous No.18643699]

anons Ive never purchased an option
What is the catch on a call or a put?
from what I understand I set a strike price and I am not obligated to act on the call or put
so say I wanted to buy a call on FRO for 1000 stocks at $11 strike price
the risk would be that FRO would not increase past $11 but if I decide not to act on the call what is the reprecussion?
would I incur a fee based on the risk I am assuming? like if I set it for 1 month instead of 2-3?

[Anonymous No.18643748]

>>18643699
You lose that investment if the strike price don't hit. Longer term options are generally safer but priced so. May options dropping now but ull see longer dated aren't which tells you something

[Anonymous No.18643820]

>>18619069
this anon gets it. OP doesn't realize it's priced in, all the tickers he listed are already up off their near lows. it's fucking over.

[Anonymous No.18643828]

>>18643699
When you buy a call or put you pay a premium upfront. That premium is not recoverable, so if your strike price is not hit, you lose your premium completely and get nothing.
On the other hand, if you do it right (i.e. don't create an infinite loss, limited gains scenario like most /smg/ retards), you are heavily hedged against being wrong (your maximum loss is the premium, you can never lose more than that) while having the same gains as the direction of the stock you chose minus the premium.
Thus the risk is associated with failure to hit the strike price exclusively. This can be avoided by itm options, but then the premium will match.

[Anonymous No.18644234]

>>18643458
Kek 6 whole months.
Lurk a year.
If you had lurked a year you would have known the rule is to lurk one whole year.

[Anonymous No.18644242]

>>18643505
Explain like I'm retarded please. My option ($13 call x 4 contracts for $235) expires May 15th. Looks like earnings report in on the 14th. I have no clue what I'm doing, just miss gambling. Do I have a chance?

[Anonymous No.18644277]

>>18644234
irony.txt

[Anonymous No.18644305]

>>18643419
Whats contango?
Oil now might be valueless but oil in september is not.
Buy oil now for 15 bucks and take delivery.
Short the september contracts at 30 bucks.
Wait till september comes.
Sell oil, use money to buy september contracts back.
Congrats, you profited 15 bucks per barrel.
Or 32 million per tanker.

[Anonymous No.18644334]

>>18644277
Flies over my house like oil tankers.

[Anonymous No.18644442]

>>18644242
It is gambling. But if u calculate it right your ok. I think you got a chance. If you get cold feet and don't hold to expiration I'm sure u can get a small profit

[Anonymous No.18644468]

>>18644242
I just feel there is a reason earnings are being release before options expiration. Everything in the market is calculated

[Anonymous No.18644752]

>>18637436
>>Why not invest in these on land storage tanks and pipelines rather than export/import dependant tanker ships?
Because Tankers are storage of last resort, and the thought process is that the rates that they're charging have not yet been entirely priced in. Specifically - the earnings they're seeing now will take a few months to materialize in their financials.

Meanwhile, pipelines and land storage tanks have been nearing capacity for a while. While much more reliable, they will very likely be less volatile in coming months. Thus, for traders looking to maximize volatility and aren't adverse to the greater risk associated with storage of last resort, tankers are an attractive investment.

[Anonymous No.18646053]

>>18644468
After reading about FRO, predictions, comments, analysis, for the past few hours...I think I'm just going to go balls to the wall with it. Gonna buy more $13 May 15 calls and even more June $14-16 calls. Fuck it. I'm here to make a shit ton of money. Hopefully this is a good start.

[Anonymous No.18646108]

>>18646053
Good luck

[Anonymous No.18646295]

>>18646108
Actually, still don't understand this crap. Sorry to turn this into an options trading lesson...

So let's say my May 15 calls (bought 4 contracts for a total of $240) will a strike price of $13 and break even of $13.60 were to hit, say $14 dollars before they expired. How much money would I end up with?

Thinking of going much bigger with my next buys, but want to figure this out first. My guess is it wouldn't be much, like $300 profit?

[Anonymous No.18646382]

>>18646295
A call entitles you to buy the underlying shares at the strike price. If strike is $13 and share price at expiry is $14, you have made $1 per share - premium. Assuming premium is $0.60 per share, that means you made $0.40 per share (IF you exercise and exercising is free and you don't have commissions), which is $160 total (100 shares per contract * 4 contracts * $0.40 per share).

[Anonymous No.18646512]

>>18646382
How the HELL am I supposed to retire off of that!? How are these fools on r/WSB making millions without having a clue what they're doing?
Damn :)

Thanks for the simple break-down on that anon, appreciate it.

[Anonymous No.18646747]

> taking risky investment advice from an internet anime board that’s addicted to tranny porn

[Anonymous No.18647021]

>>18646747
4chan as a whole is known for attracting autistic people and that one guy from the big short was autistic and he made billions. What do you have to lose besides your life savings and sometimes crippling debt

[Anonymous No.18648351]

So is it better to buy equities or calls/puts?

[Anonymous No.18648583]

>>18648351
I'm getting equities, high dividends to be expected.
ADSC-ME had a 2,6% dividend last quarter. That was for the quarter. 11% annualised.
And business has been better now.

[Anonymous No.18648607]

>>18648583
Does robinhood allocate you those dividends? I have FRO STNG DHT stocks.

[Anonymous No.18649042]

>>18648607
Kek, i dont use normiehood.

[Anonymous No.18649369]

>>18648607
Yes they do

[Anonymous No.18649986]

>>18646747
>Up 42% this year reading this Norwegian oiltankers enthusiast board.

Normie news is dead information