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/biz/ - Business & Finance


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18370462 No.18370462 [Reply] [Original]

insider here, if you’re long get out while you can

>> No.18370473

Nice larp but OPEC will be a disaster

>> No.18370516

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-opec-kremlin-idUSKCN21R1QL I’ll just leave this one here

>> No.18370980

>>18370516
Cap it. Not opening your gay link.

>> No.18371014

>>18370980
Russia says it's not planning to talk about oil today.

>> No.18371462

>>18371014
why did every oil company open up over ten percent

>> No.18371699

>>18370516
So? LOL
There are other people in russian governement, putin doesnt do everything

>> No.18371728

>>18371014
are you retarded, Putin is not "russia"

>> No.18371769

I would bet on Putin wanting max pain. Putin wants chaos.

>> No.18371998

>>18371728
Who are you kitten?

>> No.18372089
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18372089

Gonna full in on crude etf soon.

>> No.18372154
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18372154

>>18371728
>>18371699
el presidente dictator in disguise who is the face of russia doesn't represent russia? oh does the ceo of mcdonalds not represent mcdonalds either?

>> No.18372157

>>18370462
>>18371462
>>18372089
Oil Chad here. I went all in on KOS, XON, MRO, PDS when they were all low as fuck
Easiest decision I’ve ever made
God, I feel like a complete chad right now.
I’m embarrassed that I didn’t go for HAL too. Totally forgot about it.

>> No.18372228

>>18371769
Putin already said he agrees to cut if USA does it too, the ones getting hurt with the oil crisis the most is the USA so the play its in their hand, if they dont want to suffer and get brankrupt they will accept deal simple

>> No.18373815

they cut only 6M barrels, told you fags

>> No.18373894

>>18373815
Sauce?

>> No.18373924

>>18373815
This>>18373894

>> No.18374040

>>18373924
The meeting didnt even end yet, stop spreading fake news fag

>> No.18374076
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18374076

Up to 20M

>> No.18374171

>>18370462
Geofag here with strong connections in the industry globally.
This so much.
We're very likely to see close to negative rates by the end of the month.
I personally think it'll stop between $5-10 a barrel.
Good for shorting right now though.

>> No.18374211

>>18374171
>Good for shorting right now though.
What you talking about?

>> No.18374239

>>18374171
the fed is gonna pump this bitch to 3000$ a barrel.

>> No.18374301

Oilchads stay stronk, the meeting is not over

>> No.18374337
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18374337

Never get your news from CNBC you pleb, it’s UP TO 6m, total hence the Sell off . It needed to be at least 15milly

>> No.18374367
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18374367

>> No.18374385

>>18371462
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/oil-jumps-ahead-of-make-or-break-opec-meeting.html

because of bullshit like this^^^

Big media is hyping up big oil for some reason. God it's like a fucking shitcoin announcement. An announcement of an announcement. I didn't know Justin Sun works for CNN

>> No.18374387

>>18374211
There's a definite dead cat bounce right now.

>> No.18374411

Up to 6 and If you know Russia and the saudis that basically means 0

>> No.18374447

>>18374385
they’re just that desperate, unemployment figures hit today so they post of a “possible” 20M cut, it’s a total pump n dump scam at this point, now the markets responded and oils selling off as expected, back to 20-22 by the weekend

>> No.18374466

Remember I warned you fags to get out at 26.5. Now 25.3 and free falling

>> No.18374499

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-and-saudis-have-agreed-in-principle-to-cut-output-11586445159

>> No.18374555

>>18374466
god you are self righteous.

Let's talk actual information.

How will the market react to 20m oil cut?
10m oil cut?
6m oil cut?

Also, will this freefall continue? What's causing the freefall? There's a G20 meeting tomorrow that'll also cut oil 5m, probably.

How's Trump responding to all of this?

What's the latest news?

>> No.18374738

>oil at down 70% of what it was at the start of the year
>all these fags thinking it will go lower
lmao, its going to be at $50 a barrel by October at the least

>> No.18374801

Why the fuck would Russia want to save US oil? The whole point of the price war is to drive out US shale. They've lost a lot of political and financial power because of the fracking boom and they're out for blood.

>> No.18374829

>>18374738
>it cant go any lower

Demand is still a huge problem, bankruptcies are still imminent, deal might not go through, storage still a problem.

All in all, we should have sold the top, I just sold and am buying in at around mayjune

>> No.18374859

>>18374801

Only anon here with IQ above double digits

>> No.18374958

>>18374801
Russia is going to need to start burning its unsold oil if this continues

>> No.18375000

>>18374801
this, saudis bought over a billion of NON USA oil stocks a few days back. this is about control and to fuck usa shale while theyre weakened, to gain leverage. Trump knows if oil keeps dropping itll drag the markets down with it, so he'll have to deal.

>> No.18375134

>>18370473
>>18371769
>>18374171
>>18374411
>>18374447
>>18374466
>>18374801
>>18374829
So /biz/ says there’s no way in hell it goes up. Reminds me of the time /biz/ missed the bottom.

Always do the opposite.

>> No.18375176

>>18375134
Always do the opposite of people who don't back up their claims.

If you're just doing the opposite of what you read, you're no better than them.

>> No.18375187

>>18371014
Yeah
I honestly don't know how this surprises anyone.

>> No.18375213

>>18374171
>$5-10 a barrel
How so?

>> No.18375220

>>18375187
Why did Russia agree to oil cuts

>> No.18375265

>>18375220
Russia agreed to negotiations. Think like this: Putin knows Trump will grasp for straws to keep the oil price up. Negotiations in themselves don't mean anything other than (false) hopes. If they end in disappointment, prices crash again and the U.S. is hurt. Exactly what Russia aims for.

>> No.18375312
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18375312

>>18370462
you stupid retards, just move to libya and become a warlord.
Instead of buying an oil company shares, you will own an oil company

>> No.18375407
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18375407

>>18375312
>ywn get isekaied as a Libyan warlord with a harem of arab qts and unlimited oil

>> No.18375450

>>18371462
Because all other stocks also opened high. Lmao its a manipulated market and somehow you expect it to move for rational reasons

>> No.18375512

Can a non brainlet Oilchad explain to me why the GUSH and SCO charts arent directly mirrored?

Why hasnt SCO mooned?

>> No.18375554

>>18375512
Because of speculation

>> No.18375584

aaaaaaaand its going up LOL

>> No.18375589

>>18375554
ok, but zoom out. They mirror each other historically, was speculation not affecting their prices then?

>> No.18375741

>>18375589
Since this crash everyone has been gambling like a madlad, volume is way up. The only thing I can think of is that people feel that prices are so low already that shorting them has alot less potential for gains than GUSH

>> No.18375890
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18375890

Am I gonna make it? Can I finally afford my haram and make a legacy of oil and tomahawks?

>> No.18376103

I'm mid-long on FRO
We're gona run out of physical land storage and people will need to rent tankers

>> No.18376143
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18376143

>>18375407
>ywn get isekaied as a cute Libyan uke and experience a rich, handsome warlord seme fall in love with you and discard the rest of his harem for you while you live in unlimited oil luxury

>> No.18376170

i have about 20% of my portfolio spread between WTI, HAL, RDSb, and XOM. Am I fucked or going to make it?

>> No.18376233

>>18376170
Short term huge gains, mid term loss, long term gains


When is the g20 energy summit?

>> No.18376240

Test

>> No.18376250

>>18376170
you're gonna make it lad, anyone who thinks oil will got lower than $20 a barrel is retarded

>> No.18376273

>>18376103
Which tankers though? I'm on Dht right now

>> No.18376302

>>18376250
If demand stays low and production high, it's literally only a matter of storage space. No storage space and you'll get paid for taking a barrel. Negative prices are a possibility.

>> No.18376340

>>18376273
FRO and TNK

>> No.18376373

>>18376302
They will burn it or turn the pumps off before giving it away for free

>> No.18376375

>>18376273
DHT, FRO are both solid. I've got 5300 in DHT. Avoid TeeGay.

>> No.18376395

>>18376170
Future robber baron

>> No.18376494

>>18376373
they can’t just turn the pumps off easily you brainlet, this shit aint Water

>> No.18376649

>>18376494
All they need to do is flip the big oil switch from on to off you fucking idiot

>> No.18376698

>>18376649
Bye bye flow.

>> No.18376735

>>18376375
>Avoid TeeGay.
whats wrong with TK?

>> No.18376814

>MUH MAX OIL STORAGE
kek, why not just build more oil silos? Problem solved.

>> No.18376911

>>18376814
>why not just build more oil silos?
takes time, gov't regulations, certifications, etc. its faster to use existing ships that are already compliant and we may not need more oil silos after everything settles down

>> No.18377031

WHY THE HELL IS OKE GOING DOWN

>> No.18377045

My prediction

- OPEC deal will fail to producr the price increases necessary for shale to thrive
- Trump will slap tariffs on foreign oil

>> No.18377051
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18377051

>>18372228
trump said yesterday that the USA will not cut production

>> No.18377078

>>18370516
>>reuters
kek no

>> No.18377533
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18377533

Kek, imagine not being long on oil?

>> No.18377536

Checks price, 23,3. Lucky I told you to exit at 26.5

>> No.18377596

>>18377533
I'm long synthetically. Sold half my position (calls) yesterday, netted about 10%. Last pump I made 400%. Need the sand niggers to cut production.

>> No.18377636

>>18377596
Always good to take profit man. I took about 3.5k

>> No.18377645

>>18377536
It was well above 28 this morning, you don't know shit nigger

>> No.18377657

>>18372089
>soon

Anon this train is already well away from the station.

>> No.18377870

>>18372157
Noob here.
Is there a difference between buying oil and stocks?

>> No.18377871

And oil crashed

>> No.18377912
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18377912

>TFW sold oil on the FOMO pump at the start of the week

>> No.18377944
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18377944

Canada is so fucked lol

>> No.18377953

Bought XOP at 34 sold at 43, gonna wait till its back in the low 30s next week and do it all over again.

>> No.18377992

>>18377953
>Bought XOP at 34 sold at 43
based. this is what i'd like to do but i'm not sure it will go that low again. i have a limit buy order for RDS.B @ 20$/share. doubt it will get filled though

>> No.18378002
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18378002

>>18377912
Same, used the cash to buy SCO and made another 25%. They’re making it too easy.

>> No.18378082

Sorry what?

Sold my oxy $17 options when it hit $18.25
Now im buying USO $8 june calls at $5 or less for pennies.

>> No.18378127

>>18377992
its been a wild month man, working from home and day trading is pretty fun.

>> No.18378148

HAL IS FUCKING MEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

>> No.18378188

>>18378148
They were almost at $9 today, why didn't you sell?
The only thing I'm longing is XOM and a bit of MRO I forgot to set an order for.

>> No.18378195

Im down like 60% ($4000) on UOO calls for 4/17.

Should I hodl thru the weekend?

>> No.18378233

>>18378195
Sorry, UCO

>> No.18378306

>>18378195
I'm in the same boat. Holding, though I don't think it'll get better for us other than a slight mean reversion

>> No.18378365

>>18378188
i just woke up right now

>> No.18378388

>>18378365
set OCO orders in the future anon, you just pick a price you want to sell at, then pick a stop loss
then you can sleep in all you want

>> No.18378412
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18378412

>oil """"""chads""""""

>> No.18378425

>>18372228
>the ones getting hurt with the oil crisis the most is the USA

We have the highest cost of production and living.

>> No.18378457

OilAnon was right

>> No.18378508

So, when are we buying back in lads? Im thinking next week.

>> No.18378580

>>18378457
what did he say?

>> No.18378757

I got enough HODLing to the bottom with Link. Fuck this shit im up about $350. Taking my profits see yall niggas next week. Love dont mix with this pimpin.

>> No.18378759

>>18370462
FUCK I SHOULD HAVE LISTENED
WHY DID I NOT LISTEN?
ALL MY BEAUTIFULL GAINS!
NOOOOOOOOOO!

>> No.18378761

>Trump: No Cuts :^)
bruh...

>> No.18378806

>>18378759
yea unlucky

>> No.18378821

>>18370462
this post saved my ass, i would of lost all my gains from nrgu and then some if i didn't sell 30 minutes earlier, thanks!

>> No.18378970

>>18378457
Like I said last night, his math seems to check out.
>>18378580
> Oil demand is fucked world wide because rona
> Oil keeps pumping, so storages fill up
> Eventually nowhere to put the oil
> The 10m bbl/day cut by OPEC today is priced in, storage's still will fill up sometime between May-July.
> When this happens oil will mega bear since literally there is nowhere to put it
> Tankers will do well once market realizes they're undervalued
> Year or two out, oil goes back to $40+/bbl and full recovery
Some small US shale companies may be kill, supermajors (XOM, RDS, etc.) will be fine, much gains and many plays to be had on this.

>> No.18379028
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18379028

>>18378970
Someone read the goldman sachs report.

>> No.18379069

OPEC voting now.

>> No.18379167

>>18379028
where to access these reports? is it a subscription or paywall?

>>18378970
i think i was in those threads. copped some FRO after doing some research. I might have to pick up a lot more for short term. what you think? you picking up any tankers? I've looked at more FRO, TNK, and DHT

someone said avoid TNK/TK Teekay, but I didn't see a reason why. fidelity and tradingview are bullish on TNK

>> No.18379203

Lmao fucking beaners trying to throw some weight around

>> No.18379384

>>18379167
Paywall, buddy of mine feeds me reports from time to time.

From Jeffrey Currie,

The global economy is a complex physical system with physical frictions, and energy sits near the top of that complexity. It is impossible to shut down that much demand without large and persistent ramifications to supply. The one thing that separates energy from other commodities is that it must be contained within its production infrastructure, which for oil includes pipelines, ships, terminals, storage facilities, refineries, and distribution networks. All of which have relatively small and limited spare capacity. We estimate that the world has around a billion barrels of spare storage capacity, but much of that will never be accessed as the velocity of the current shock will breach crude transportation networks first, which we are already seeing evidence of around the world. Indeed, given the cost of shutting down a well, a producer would be willing to pay someone to dispose of a barrel, implying negative pricing in landlocked areas.

Waterborne crudes like Brent will be far more insulated, staying near cash costs of $20/bbl with temporary spikes below. Brent is priced on an island in the North Sea, 500 meters from the water, where tanker storage is accessible.

In contrast, WTI is landlocked and 500 miles from the water. This illustrates an important point. Shut-ins will be not be based upon where wells sit on the cost curve but rather on logistics and access. High-cost waterborne crude oil that can reach a ship (storage we have historically never ran out of), are better positioned than landlocked pipeline crude oil sitting behind thousands of miles of pipe, like the crude oils in the US, Russia and Canada. In 1998, when surpluses last breached storage capacity, it was these landlocked crude oils that were the hardest hit.

1/2

>> No.18379410

>>18379384

So while markets like WTI, particularly WTI Midland, or Canada’s WCS can go negative, Brent is likely to stay near cash costs of $20/bbl. Ultimately, the market never hits nameplate capacity, as other bottlenecks are also at play. During 2008 and also in this crisis, dollar funding and credit constraints that prevent oil owners from accessing storage and transportation capacity also played a role. We believe that the Fed’s actions last week alleviate some of this risk, but oil itself creates dollar liquidity given its importance in global trade and setting the price of other traded goods and another sharp drop in oil prices could create additional dollar shortages.

>> No.18379470

Mexico rejects cuts, they went on a break now.

>> No.18379478

>>18379384
>>>18379167 #
>Paywall, buddy of mine feeds me reports from time to time.
Upload them here please, youd be a hero that /biz/ needs

>> No.18379534

>>18379470
define "break"

>> No.18379616

>>18379384
>>18379410
I'll fuckin pay for the reports and post em here, i just need to know where to find them. is there a link?

>> No.18379617

>>18379534
nevermind... found the twitterstream.
who knew twitter could be useful

>> No.18379660

>>18379384
>>18379410
thanks king

>> No.18379671

>>18379167
I went with $5 calls on TNP and TK for Sept/Oct. Wish I wasn't a poorfag and could buy more, but if it works out, maybe I'll be less of one.
>>18379384
Stuff that's not priced in:
> China runs into a 2nd wave in a months time and factories get shut down again.
> OPEC/Russia very much would like to see US Shale offline for as long as possible, and make us buy oil from them again.
WTI going negative will be a fun time though.

>> No.18379698

So a 10 million cut for two months, mexico agreed.

>> No.18379890

>>18379478
I got it as an email forward. I can ask to get the full doc and where exactly he gets it from, but I'd imagine it costs them a lot of money. He works on front street, Canada's Wall Street.

>> No.18380092

>>18372157
>not buying all the enbl you could at 1.80
>not getting a still fat dividend
>not literally doubling your portfolio in a week

These spooky fellas need to get on the road to profit town. Everyone is gnashing their teeth and I'm quite comfortable. Thinking about buying a cessna 172 with the profits and then reinvesting again after the next hiccup.

>> No.18380138

MY STONKS ARE GOING DOWN
HAL, XOM, XOP
Do I sell now or what?

>> No.18380156

>>18379671
If you think the price will keep plummeting, you might want to look into tanker companies. Off the top of my head i can think of a few. TK, FRO, TNP.

>> No.18380296

>>18380156
those are puts friendo, I expect them to do pretty well mid term.

>> No.18380445

>>18370462
GODDAMIT, OIL IS GOING BACK UP!!! SO HELP ME, ANON, IF YOU JUST FUCKED ME!!!

>> No.18380530

>>18380445
kek when an anon doesnt even show his position, don't listen to him.
I'm still long, but i did take 3.5k profit this morning.
>>18377533

>> No.18380559

Closed up 40%, but goddamn, I'm still holding. This is so fucked.

>> No.18380593

can somebody run the numbers on the deduction of oil because of OPEC ? do we expect a drop to 20 bucks ?

>> No.18380876

>>18372157
Went PDS and KOS

Let's see what happens. See you on the other sid

>> No.18380956

>>18380593
Well they cut supply by 15% so in clown world that means the price of oil drops, the good part of the clown market is that 16 million unemployed means big stonk gains

>> No.18381487

>>18380593
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tightening-oil-storage-picture-underlines-urgency-for-production-cuts-2020-04-09
> Yawger, director of energy at Mizuho, in a note. “But it would add a few weeks to the ‘full storage’ timeline. Instead of global storage filling in eight weeks, maybe it will take eight to 12 weeks. Maybe China demand will return by then.”
End of May / June target is still in play for oilpocalypse. China demand return is a pipe dream imo. Question is who will win, money printer go brrrr or negative WTI oil prices?

>> No.18381579

>>18381487
thanks for the link, currently have puts on both SPY and Brent, so if one of em goes down im happy

>> No.18381746
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18381746

>>18370462
Who here sold this morning before prices collapsed at end of day?

>> No.18381763

>>18379167
Most of this info is publicly accessible.
All of the info I used for my analysis was stuff not behind a paywall that can be found with a google search or too if you know the right terms.
>>18378970
Just another tip I'll leave this here as I like you for actually checking my math and trying to independently verify.
https://www.rystadenergy.com/globalassets/pdfs/rystad-energy_covid-19-report_7-april_2020_final-public-version.pdf


As a side note if anyone has a live feed of some kind updating asto the state of the OPEC meeting I'd really appreciate it, so far I've found nothing.

>> No.18381794

>>18378002
> the rapist speaks

>> No.18381859

Opec agreed to 10 billion barrel cut, OP is rekt

>> No.18382282

anyone here use Fidelity? trying to figure out the selections i need to short sell a stock

>> No.18382315

>>18382282
You need a margin account to short.
5k minimum I think.
You just type in the ticker and choose "Sell Short"

>> No.18382347

>>18381859
it's half of what trump promissed

>> No.18382378

>>18382315
i have a margin enable account and over 5k$. i'm eligible to short sell, I'm just sure exactly which drop downs to select:

Action = Sell Short
Order Type = Limit Order? Enter Limit price of what you want to sell at?
How come the Time in Force is limited to same day only?

>> No.18382382

TRUMP MENTIONING OIL!!! TIME TO PUMP

>> No.18382456

>>18381763
> rystad revised down 27mbpd vs 22.3 mbpd
rofl, Christmas comes early. Need to crunch the numbers but looks like that OPEC cut barely bought any time after all.

>> No.18382735

>>18382282
cant, live in uk

>> No.18383064

>>18382456
Everything is accelerating, at this rate we might still hit apocalypse in May-early June even with the cut.

>> No.18383233

>>18383064
What happens if Oil demand ramps up again in Asia. Oil prices continue to steadily rise and tankers do too?

>> No.18383267

>>18372157
No one who ever referenced themselves as a "chad" is a chad

>> No.18383488

lmao the mexicans have actually lost their minds

>> No.18383520
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18383520

Ok, so I had a UCO long today with a stop loss at $2.07...

Too afraid too open up the charts... Someone tell me it's not that bad...

>> No.18383532

>>18375890
Thats a pretty based portfolio.

>> No.18383648

>>18377870
One is for your car one is for your portfolio

>> No.18385099

>>18381859
This will not fix the 20-25 mln barrel decline in demand for several years.

>> No.18385227

Oil is fucked, the 2nd biggest airline just grounded all flights in my country for the rest of the year.

Its going sub $20

>> No.18385244

>>18385227
So should we currently invest in oil

>> No.18385366

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-opec-mexico-cut-idUSKCN21S03K

Mexico's FINAL offer

>> No.18385604

>>18385227
>>18385366
Fuck fuck I'm dumping first thing Monday

>> No.18385894

>>18385366
Are they insane?

>> No.18385947

>>18385366
BASED Mexico.