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/biz/ - Business & Finance


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18312354 No.18312354 [Reply] [Original]

So, let me see if I'm getting this right:
>most small business in USA and Yurop are closed indefinitely because of the big Rona
>most employees were either fired or are home getting a fraction of their salary
>no salaries + mass firings = a lot of people are gonna start defaulting on payments really soon
>most small and medium businesses will be dead in 2 months tops
>small and medium businesses are gonna start defaulting on payments too
>quarantines won't be over in 2-3 months
>housing market is collapsing because people are defaulting on rents and boomers are dying
>oil is still in oversupply
>industries halted + airplanes on the ground + people staying home and not commuting = the lowest oil demand in decades

Where did I get this wrong? Am I a retard, or are we facing an economic crisis, a housing market crisis AND a banking collapse at the same time as a global epidemic? How should everyone not be freaking out right now?

>> No.18312375

this is bullish

>> No.18312386

Priced in

>> No.18312407

>>18312354
>>most small and medium businesses will be dead in 2 months tops
Large businesses aren't faring much better: my company only has another 3-4 months of operating cash. All these retards went into debt just to buy their own stock.

>> No.18312413

>>18312354
>jamie diamon says the worst of it is over!
>trump says there's light!
>ackman is "optimistic"
>money printer brrrblurpblrupbl

>> No.18312495

I just don't see how we're going to get out of this when
>the virus is gonna be around for months before it's gone, and this assuming that people get immunity AND the virus won't mutate
>a lot of companies would already be in deep shit if this global quarantine ended today
>a vaccine isn't going to be released before 4-6 months in the most optimistic scenario
>the dollar is going to devalue like crazy once the markets adjust to the oil prices and the Fed's money printer
I'd love it if someone called me a retard and explained to me how is this going to be over

>> No.18312588

>be me
>finally start turning a profit on business
>wife goes full psycho and threatens a divorce if I keep working
>tempting

Now my business partner is making fucking bank while waiting for this to be over, while I sit at home and make my wife’s life miserable. She doesn’t understand what’s going to happen 6months down the road and what even a little money can do for you.

>> No.18312666
File: 137 KB, 1062x559, love from khazakstan.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
18312666

>>18312588
kinda sucks bro. I had a similar situation some years ago and I just let go. Most women are like children, and their opinion should never matter to you

>> No.18312681

>>18312588
Elaborate pls. I have money and no wife.

>> No.18312718

The only person I trust right now is Peter Schiff. He is calling a depression, and all his arguments for that are very convincing. Hedging in crypto though not gold

>> No.18312720

>>18312681
You just need to read a lot of /r9k/ larp to understand

>> No.18312768
File: 58 KB, 720x482, bubble.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
18312768

>>18312413
>>18312354
>>18312495

>> No.18312802

>>18312354
Austria is going to open all businesses again on May 1st. Germany will race to do the same. The happening is over. Nothing happend. In three month everything will be back to normal.

>> No.18312812

>>18312354
>he didn’t learn from 9/11
>he’s not positioned accordingly
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jfx7PnMtCeY

>> No.18312826

>>18312354
>there is no reason to believe there will be a house market crisis. demand is still very high.
>yes some small shops will go bankrupt. but there was already a trend of small shops being overtaken by big and online retail.
>there will be huge bailouts like in 2008 but even bigger. so usd will devalue. but rich people hold mostly stock so this shouldn't matter.
>most countries which got first cases in beginning of march/end of february are already showing decline in new cases, and the recoveries are growing exponential.

>> No.18312855

>>18312802
is there a sauce to this?
I mean this is a real possibility, but they have to know that people will just start getting infected right?

>> No.18313932

>>18312386
Priced in. Economy fine oiled machine. There will be no problem kick starting economy. Everything will return back to normal “soon”

>> No.18314001

>>18312855
as long as the hospitals arent overcrowded, what does it matter?

>> No.18314128

>>18313302

>> No.18314159
File: 512 KB, 1062x1080, 1579920847772.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
18314159

>>18312802
>Gonna be 2 mil infected in less than a week from now
>infection numbers rising much faster than ever before
>deaths rising faster than ever before
>deaths almost 100k
>"it was a nothing burger all along!"
>"where's the happening?"
>"but you said 2 weeks"
>"literally just a flu"
Please explain to me how you Neanderthals come to this conclusion

>> No.18314190
File: 354 KB, 923x1897, 20200406_092429.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
18314190

>>18312354
GEE ITS SO HARD TO FIGURE OUT
SO HARD
COS IM SO SMART BUT I DONT GET IT
WHY IS IT SO HARD THINKING

>> No.18314195

Meh, people will just tap into their savings and ride it out. If it continues another 6 months then I'd start worrying because most people are pretty bad with money. Fortunately it's a very very mild disease that mainly harms old and fat people. The catcher is fat and old people run the world and they'd rather crash this plane with no survivors than just do the right thing and self isolate whire good people assume control.

>> No.18314210

>>18312354
the question is how do I profit from this? besides shorting, what business ideas we can get to find ourself in this new world?

>> No.18314216

>>18313932
>"return to normal"

:^)

>> No.18314297
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18314297

>>18314190

>> No.18314349

>>18314210
If I had enough money I'd buy stocks and sell months from now
If that doesn't work then the world is screwed anyways and you should have bought gold alcohol and ammo

>> No.18314394

>>18312588
>Obeying wife

Hope you have a cuck fetish

>> No.18314401

>>18314190
They always underreport on weekends you ignorant mong

>> No.18314403

>>18312826
>demand is high
lol where??? And who's demanding? If it's not first time millennial homebuyers it doesn't matter and you're a dumbass
>yes some small shops will go bankrupt
>some
Thousands of small business closing and laying off millions of people all at the same time isn't "some"
>muh 2008
Seriously this shouldn't be an argument anymore. There wasn't a global pandemic in 2008 with simultaneously popping economic bubbles
>beginning of march/end of february
Yeah exactly, this is going to take at least that long to taper off. If things stay closed until the end of May/beginning of June, millions of people will default on debts, mortgage backed securities will be junk, thousands and thousands of small businesses will close forever, many larger ones will as well, and consumers generally are not going to want to go back to standing around in public. This isn't going to go back to normal and I don't know why you'd even suggest that.

>> No.18314496

The virus itself isn't even an issue anymore.
We could return to normal today and economy would be fucked regardless. It was fucked long before this.
The problem is that there's a ton of institutional money sitting on the sidelines looking to desperately make a profit from anything they can.
This means the market can be propped up for quite a while, but in the longer term we're going down hard.
You can't have an economy without the consumer and consumer is pretty much out of the picture. Even before the virus we were seeing record high personal debt and loan delinquencies.
Businesses getting fucked will just make this problem worse and speed up the inevitable crash.

So give it some time, it will fall like a brick but this fall will be a slow one and might take even couple of years to slowly bottom.
Market is volatile as shit and running entirely on hype without any fundamentals at the moment. It grabs onto any piece of good news it can, but it doesn't mean there's any kind of a genuine recovery going on.


>>18314195
>just tap into their savings and ride it out

Average Joe in the US has less than $500 saved and wouldn't be able to deal with a sudden emergency if it required money like that.
Absolute majority of people have no money saved whatsoever.

>> No.18314515

>>18314001
that's the thing though, in a good part of Europe, hospitals are already overcrowded. Even if the situation improves, if the quarantine was broken in the next few weeks, the collapse would be inevitable

>> No.18314547

>>18314195
most people don't have savings bro.

>> No.18314605

So I have no work anymore kek, I got 12k saved to my name. How to make more money working at home now and get rich, my fellow rich old based Neetbros!

>> No.18314677

Dow 25,000 by the end of April you brrrrainlets.

>> No.18314720

>>18312588
Dude. Because you let her tell you what to do your relationship is either over or at best miserable for over.

If you, today, go back to work and defy her “orders” you might be able to earn some or her respect back.

Were you kids not raised by fathers?

>> No.18314726

>>18312354
just relax dude
the government is taking care of it

>> No.18314802

>>18312768
On point

>> No.18314823
File: 23 KB, 1581x613, covid1.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
18314823

>>18314515
>the collapse would be inevitable
youre missed the point. i drew it for you.

>> No.18314938

>>18312495
Flu vaccines are an absolute crap shoot with only about 40-60% success rate with the NORMAL flu. Mother nature can just say "fuck you faggots" and mutate over and over again. Like, there are more nefarious things planned for this vaccine such as (((ID2020))) and globalist population culls.
It's unironically all over mang. Ain't no going back now. Governments will never let go of the power they are accumulating. If the elite had their way, we'd all be in camps doing all the work for them like they do in China.

Get ready. Be prepared.

>> No.18315026

3 words, biztards.
UNLIMITED QUANTATIVE EASING.
They will not stop printing.
The fed said, "We can print an INFINITE amount of cash."

>> No.18315128

>>18312768
Except we completely skipped return to normal when the DOW went down more than 5% each consecutive day for more than a week, sometimes being -10%


"return to normal" probably happened somewhere at 26,000 and we've already passed the percentage comparison with 2008 and 1917 crashes from a fucking virus slowing things down for a month.

>> No.18315203

>>18314823
You're being extremely generous with the overcrowding topping off the capacity, in reality it would be something like 50x the capacity.

>> No.18315507
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18315507

>>18315203
let me get this straight. You saw a graph, which has no actual numbers on it. And your complaint is
>the values need to be...FIFTY TIMES larger than that.

>> No.18315541

basically the world is being retarded over the sniffles
this is the same flavor of jewery that made invading Iraq sound like a good idea

>> No.18315573

>>18312354
>big Rona
Reddit, its called Chinese Aids.

>> No.18315586

>>18314195
>What is living paycheck to paycheck

>> No.18315779

>>18315128
It still has another -70% potential left in it...

>> No.18315922

>>18314496
THIS makes sense

>> No.18315937

>>18312354
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQTbbUASPLQ

Its because we're here right now... just wait it out.

>> No.18316004
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18316004

>>18312386
>>18313932
This

>> No.18316024
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18316024

>>18314195
>he thinks 'most people' have savings

>> No.18316031

A lot of denial about the damage that has already been done to the economy.

>> No.18316078

>>18314605
Make moonshine

>> No.18316095

>>18314938
>be prepared to fight the us government

Lmfao are you fucking retarded

>> No.18316742
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18316742

>>18312354
NEET completely unaffected