Calling genuine long-term bears/doomers

[Anonymous No.17350888]

Public
> think crypto is/was a scam, have absolutely no awareness of the very concept of market cycles, think it's "dead" or they heard bitcoin got hacked or some shit. They're out (until told otherwise by sources they respond to).

Mainstream finance
> 50/50 perhaps, plenty of muh institutional money is balls deep in crypto and has been for YEARS. But a lot of firms/players still won't touch it. Govt/banks very bullish on "the tech".

Us
> Long-term (months to years) bullish, short-term depends on one's current play.

I want to hear from people who ACTUALLY think that crypto has no long-term future, that we'll never break ATH again, that the last bullrun was the final one, that crypto is, as a whole dying.

If I had a lump sum of say 100 or 200k and wanted to double it, and allowed myself 5 or 10 years to do that... how is it just this easy as to put it in crypto and be patient? It seems that the way people lose money here in such an aggressively expanding market is:

1) buying absolute tops during mad fomo periods (we are not in one of those now, it would seem)

2) overtrading, gambling-style degen shit, being impatient, etc


The third possibility is if crypto dies. Come at me, genuine bears, and tell me why I shouldn't put 200 grand into "safe" crypto now and calmly wait for it to go up. I don't mind drawdowns in the mean time, unaffected emotionally.

[Anonymous No.17351289]

>>17350888
It has no long-term future because the oil market is dying and we're past peak oil.
This combined with the destabilization of the climate (see what's happeneing with the jetstream) is going to erode our ability to grow sufficient crops. Crypto will be worthless in this world.
That said, most people aren't aware of this and markets are completely divorced from reality (see Tesla stock). We could have a huge bullrun in whatever time we've got remaining. But what exactly happens to the hash-rate if China collapses? We're in the middle of a black swan event right fucking now. Just look at what ncov has done to Chinese manufacturing. Nearly 10% of humanity locked down etc..

[Anonymous No.17351361]

>>17351289
>stopped reading at destabilization of climate.

Fucking brainwashed zoomer has no opinion anyone needs to listen to.

[Anonymous No.17351463]

Do what you want it’s your money. Sure some people made some money off crypto, and some people will continue to make money. That’s fine and totally normal but most people are not getting rich or making sick gains for many reasons among them of course being that retail investors (that’s basically everyone here) are not very good at investing.

In addition to that, the future of crypto is uncertain to everyone not inside the echo chamber, bitcoin can’t scale, ETH Is mostly used so far as a medium through which to create additional tokens which are in turn mostly used to scam people out of money. Which brings me to a third point tying the other two together, there’s no regulation in this market. There’s no legal or financial consequences from fraudulent behavior, so there’s no reason a normal person can really believe in the face of all this that a typical crypto project is anything more than a scam. They lie all the time about “partnerships” and potential uses for tokens and chains that, if you examine their claims any deeper than the surface level, are clearly a ridiculous pipe dream. Also market manipulation that is illegal in SEC regulated markets is totally normal and fine in crypto.

Seems like a good way to lose money if you’re not in on the scam, I guess. and for all their talk, the vast majority of crypto investors are not.

[Anonymous No.17351621]

>>17351361
Actually a millennial with a science degree (not that it's at all relevant).
I'm afraid you're the brainwashed one here, anon.It's so easy and comfortable to think in such simplistic terms as
>climate change is all bullshit used to force communism, higher taxes or scam-green tech on us
Just like it's easy for a leftist to think that
>the world is gonna end unless we bring down evil oil corporations

Either of these are entirely true or false. There are many powerful interests using a real phenomenon for their profit. But the climate is in fact changing (only a brainwashed retard ignores the science because some internet propagandist told him that scientists are brainwashed and/evil), and those changes are leading to the end of the remarkable stable Holocene climate that allowed civilizations to emerge in the first place.

As for why we can't just
>stop oil corporations
We NEED oil (well, fossil fuels in general). Any idiot can understand the simple reality that all the processes that keep civilization functioning REQUIRE energy. Civilization is fundamentally an energy system and without cheap, readily available energy, it dies. And currently, there's nothing we can realistically implement that could come anywhere close to replacing oil/gas/coal.

[Anonymous No.17351667]

>>17351289
You realize chinks dont have to leave their house to mine Bitcoin, right?

[Anonymous No.17351723]

>>17351621
Ok, i will bite. Why do you think climate change and peak oil has any effect on the future of crypto?

[Anonymous No.17351774]

>>17351463
Since it seems like your concerns are all about regulatory and legal issues, will you change your tune upon the passing of the cryptocurrency act of 2020?

[Anonymous No.17351882]

>>17351667
>>17351723
>You realize chinks dont have to leave their house to mine Bitcoin, right?
All well and good so long the power's on. And ships keep bringing oil/gas/coal to power China.
All well and good so long as the Chinks don't starve. They already lost a huge proportion of their pigs to swine flue. Now their chickens are dying of bird flu while starving from lack of feed because ncov is killing domestic trade/transport. All while enormous locust swarms are fucking several counties in NE Africa and and the Middle East.
Australia's being fucked by drought, flooding and fires all at once.
The US mid-west had huge flooding, preventing the sowing of crops before quite late in the season.
These all matter, since both food and energy supplies exist in a globalized market.

[Anonymous No.17351933]

>>17351361
This autist doesnt think climate change is real hahahaha.
Kys faggot

[Anonymous No.17352038]

>>17351882
China is going to take a huge hit economically, no doubt, but to imply that basic commerce of necessary resources is going to stop entirely is a bit of a stretch. People are not going to abandon multimillion dollar mining operations for a period of economic distress, and China isnt going to allow major cities to lose power in the middle of winter as that would undoubtedly be a worse situation than we see now. Not to mention, when the yuan is about to tank from all the market manipulation China is undoubtedly doing with their fiat to maintain the appearance of an economy thats staying afloat, where do you think all the smart money is going to go? Precious metals that can be easily confiscated? No. Cryptographic ultra money that can literally be kept secure in your mind with no evidence of its existence? Seems likely.
Just throwing out “muh China” fud isnt reason enough to be certain of the demise of crypto. There are a lot of factors to take into consideration.

[Anonymous No.17352061]

>>17351289
That's why my first investments were firearms and ammo.

[Anonymous No.17352072]

>>17351774
I would certainly reconsider it, if there’s real punishments laid out and actually applied for engaging in fraudulent activity. I still don’t know if I believe the technology has a future, but it’s impossible to reach a favorable conclusion in an environment where almost everything is misinformation.

[Anonymous No.17352096]

>>17351289
>oil market is dying
>when demand is skyrocketing
Please go back to school

[Anonymous No.17352158]

>>17350888
>that we'll never break ATH again, that the last bullrun was the final one
I believe this. Saying it has no future is going a little far. But right now crypto is in a massive bubble. And has all the makings of one, valuations based on nothing, pumps and dumps happening out of nowhere for no obvious reasons, market is easily manipulated by whales, a significant portion of investors in this space operate on hype (digital modern day tulipmania), etc. I think we’ve been in a bubble for a long time now, even after the 2017 bubble burst, we still weren’t completely out of it. Once crypto actually matures as a market and isn’t the relative unregulated joke it is today with so many scams, unprofessional speculative investors, and PnD whales, I think we’ll see a massive decrease in price valuations across the board.

[Anonymous No.17352213]

>>17352038
I'm not saying what is going to happen here in this specific case, I'm just describing some substantial sources of risk. Ultimately, the food and energy supply underpins everything. I've already described why the food supply is threatened, and even if these don't coalesce into a real monster of a back swan this time, these threats are likely to multiply in the future.

>>17352096
>oil market is dying
>when demand is skyrocketing
Are you aware of the declining profitability of oil extraction?
Seriously, do some basic research here anon. Shale oil, for example, has only running because of huge subsidies and cheap dept. This is fundamentally and simply because we've extracted all the easy to extract oil. It's becoming more and more expensive to extract what's left and profit margins are already negative for many (and every increasing) operations at current prices.

[Anonymous No.17352301]

>>17351621
>And currently, there's nothing we can realistically implement that could come anywhere close to replacing oil/gas/coal.
ever hear of nuclear power, faggot?

[Anonymous No.17352366]

>>17351289
WTI Oil. Surprised to see an anon here who indirectly understands what crypto follows.

[Anonymous No.17352456]

>>17352301
>nuclear power
To go all nuclear by 2050, we'd have to build nuke plants at roughly the rate of 2 every 5 days. Good luck with that.

>>17352366
Interesting concept, thanks for pointing that out

[Anonymous No.17352503]

>>17352158

Possible. Everything you mention is indeed how things are but was much MORE true 8 years ago, say. I was around for the 2013 bubble(s) and the level of scamminess and shittery was 1000x that of today. We are still infested with shitcoins, make no mistake, but even real shitcoins now need some kind of legit biz/gov connection to make it through the door, and the truly big alts are legit mainstream things, serious corporate styling.

We continue to move in this same direction towards more and more serious and necessary projects, the barrier to entry becomes higher and higher (no one here can just make an ico today without enormous investment) and prices seem to have risen as this has all happened. Every year the space matures and volatility drops and scams become fewer and less able to thrive. Why do you think that prices must collapse as this ongoing process continues? Someone could have said the same in early 2013.

Indeed, one might argue that once (or IF) the market matures and becomes regulated, prices will and must be high enough to justify/attract maturation and regulation. Otherwise it's just irrelevant and will be left alone as a silly nerd online gambling game.

[Anonymous No.17352533]

>>17352061
>That's why my first investments were firearms and ammo

Where do you store such things? Not practical for anyone without a fixed, prepper-style home they're going to defend and shit.

[Anonymous No.17352577]

>>17352456
> To go all nuclear by 2050, we'd have to build nuke plants at roughly the rate of 2 every 5 days. Good luck with that.
[citation needed]

[Anonymous No.17352768]

>>17352577
Too lazy to look for it. Just look up the expected energy requirements by 2050 and how much a nuclear power plant generates. It comes out to about 15,000 power plants needed (the world has between 400 and 500 right now).

[Anonymous No.17353239]

>>17352768
Energy is a broad term. There's already a lot of non hydrocarbon installed capacity and with improving pv and battery tech this will only improve

[Anonymous No.17353468]

>>17353239
Problem is that non-hydrocarbon capacity is very little of overall energy production (energy, not electricity). In fact, we're adding oil/gas/coal at a much faster rate than renewables. Renewables aren't replacing them because energy demand is growing much faster than we can install renewables. They're merely taking a chunk out of energy GROWTH. There is no reduction.
On top of that, we simply don't have the metals, rare earths, or even construction-grade sand to build enough renewables.

[Anonymous No.17353481]

>>17352503
Things were more volatile because there were fewer investors and generally lower market caps. What you said doesn’t really contradict what I’m saying that much. Part of my point is that the crypto market IS maturing, 2017 was a short term bubble that burst. I believe that there is an even larger long-term bubble which has developed due to structural reasons in the market rather than the speculative drive that more or less caused 2017. I’m not saying prices will absolutely collapse and everyone will go bankrupt but the market as is is still wildly volatile and still highly subject to manipulation, exist scams, PnDs, etc. Will be interesting to see how things develop though. Personally I place most of my long term investments in btc because even if the market shits the bed it will emerge as the relative stable coin amongst them

[Anonymous No.17353486]

>>17352577
look at pic
>>17353468
and tell me that nuclear is going to save the day