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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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17080606 No.17080606 [Reply] [Original]

Imagine if the stock market could crash so hard, it would go negative?
That's what happened to shipping.
The index for large bulk carriers went negative for the first time in history. People didn't even think that was possible.

I feel like this story is underreported, especially considering shipping crashed in June 2008, a few months before everything else did.

>> No.17080624
File: 62 KB, 1060x722, E9B958A5-4F38-4227-B731-A24FD92B61CE.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
17080624

Thanks for the link OP that really helped. No it REEAAAALLLYYYY helped

>> No.17080652

>>17080624
I looked up the headline for you and the article is paywalled. OP fagged us again.

>> No.17080674

>>17080652
>>17080624
That's why I didn't post it
You can find articles about it on Reuters or Bloomberg

>> No.17080723

>>17080606
We will see panic in about a month, US equities will be the last to go since everyone wants them. Then it will flow to BTC

>> No.17080732

>>17080606
Yeah I saw this actually earlier and I thought this sounded like kind of a huge deal, but nobody seems to be talking about it.

>> No.17080767

>>17080674
Use archive.is and cast off your inner newfag

>> No.17080818
File: 111 KB, 576x900, 1580651380969.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
17080818

AAAAAAHHHHHH MY FLOATY BOATIES

WHO'S SELLING

>> No.17080860

called it in 2015 apparently but might be happening NOW finally.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/2925936-how-the-baltic-dry-index-predicted-3-market-crashes-will-it-do-it-again

>> No.17080884

This coincides with the drop in demand for copper.

>> No.17080891

>>17080884
Interesting. Why has demand for copper dropped?

>> No.17080925

the shipping industry has always experienced ups and downs
AYYYY CORONA'd

>> No.17080943

>>17080860
>https://seekingalpha.com/article/2925936-how-the-baltic-dry-index-predicted-3-market-crashes-will-it-do-it-again
copy paste here pls

>> No.17080974

Not sure, but copper futures have gone from $2.84 to $2.51 in a span of 2 weeks.

>> No.17080984

>>17080891
Same reason there's no demand for ships.
China is shutting down.

>> No.17080989

>>17080860
>this has occurred before three different market crashes
>uses the same '08 chart for all three

>> No.17080991

>>17080606
The commodity market crashed in June 2008 and it still hasnt recovered.
Neither has shipping.
It's not rocket science. They are highly correlated.
Check oil, natgas, copper, corn, basedbeans...
Crash happened in June 2008

>> No.17080995

>US-China Trade war
>Chinese manufacturing shut down because of coronavirus
>Increase in US domestic manufacturing
>Bulkers aren't doing well
Wow, I wonder why

>> No.17081040

China is slowly moving away from a manufacturing economy. The US is trying to sell natgas, onions and pork to China (to close the trade deficit) but China wasn't buying. I think Phase 1 was supposed to fix this.

This also may be related to why Carl Icahn (big natgas billionaire) traveled with Trump to China to sign the Phase 1 deal.

>> No.17081052

Supras are trading at 5,5k , panamax however is a bloodbath , working as a commercial operator and let me tell you the losses the big lads have must be so massive I can't even comprehend (oldendorff , Western bulk, star bulk etc etc)

>> No.17081075

>>17080606
Good thing software companies don’t have physical products

>> No.17081119

>>17081052
There is no chance everyone gets out of this alive.
It's only a matter of time before a major charterer goes bust.
And when that happens, the bunker jew will come knocking on owners' doors for unpaid bills.
With elevated VLSFO prices that's going to sting and vessels are sure to get arrested and auctioned off.

In most cases the Owner will have done nothing wrong except trust the wrong charterer.

>> No.17081150

>>17080606
Supposedly Canadian lobster fishermen are totally fucked because over 60% of their sales are to China and the airlines who transport the shit just stopped flying there, of their own decision - because Trudeau is braindead and hasnt shut anything down himself.

>> No.17081181

>>17081150
>Supposedly Canadian lobster fishermen are totally fucked because over 60% of their sales are to China
Good. Subsidized industries shouldn't be used to benefit foreign countries.

>> No.17081210

>>17081119
This is the beauty of this industry full of retards, you either become super rich or you go clean toilets , no middle ground

Having said that I honestly don't understand the market spread between hsfo and vlsfo now, why would anyone sell hsfo at 280 skaw levels when people will buy it even for 400

Honestly I don't think we will recover any time soon, survivors will be only those with multi-year fixed COAs

>> No.17081372

>>17081210
I looked up hsfo & vlsfo....what do the below mean?
> Supras (a super tanker?)
> 280 skaw levels
>multi-year fixed COAs (Chart of Accounts?)
I'm interested, anything else to add?

>> No.17081497

>>17081372
Supra means Supramax, a common type of bulker able to carry about 50-60K metric tons.
280 refers to the price of high sulphur bunker fuel, normally illegal since 01.2020 but allowed on ships with scrubber. It's about $280 per ton which is way cheaper than the legal fuel which is like $600 per ton.
Skaw refers to Skagen, Denmark. Skaw/Passero is a shipping term referring to all ports between Skagen, Denmark and Cape Passero, Sicily. Basically most continental European ports.
CoAs are Contracts of Affreighment. They are long-term deals to carry goods (e.g. iron ore from Brazil to China). Because they're multi-year (in some cases signed before the ship is built and covering its entire 25-year lifespan) and signed with major state-backed counterparties they are not affected by market fluctuations. Very few shipowners can sign such contracts.

>> No.17081537

>>17081497
this guy gave you all the explanation you need >>17081372
btw im not totally in agreement with COAs , its merely a strategy owners or operators can choose, not saying its easy, but its not as hard, as long as you dont see vessels as assets but you actually try to find solutions and help clients with their problems

>> No.17081549

>>17080606
It certainly deserves more attention. Losses in shipping and primary goods are a good indicator of the economy going downhill. But I didn't know you can go negative, especially considering overall populations are growing so there will always ultimately be a demand for goods. Is there a glut in something recently?

>> No.17081551

>>17081497
spotted the shipping fag, you in chartering or what?

>> No.17081553

How do I profit from this?

>> No.17081563

>>17081551
snp

>> No.17081571

>>17081553
short big tonnage owners, OR short commodities, OR just buy them once you feel the cycle is over

as somebody who works in shipping, i would NEVER put my hardoworking money into their shares

>> No.17081583

>>17081497
where is this "illegal fuel" illegal? These are multinational shipping companies, what's to stop them from buying the cheaper fuel from some random country?

>> No.17081600

>>17081583
because the new environmentalist fundamentalists decided to set a max of 0,5 sulphur contents in all the burning fuel in order to "save the planet"

Naturally the agenda was pushed by the big guys as always who can either afford to install scrubbers or simply have enough credit to take the hit

If you get caught using HSFO without a scrubber the fines and the legal reactions will be massive, not to mention that no shipper will accept your vessels

>> No.17081615

>>17081583
It is illegal in national waters, once you get into international you can burn whatever you want. From my understanding, a ship has both fuels on the ship, one for when entering a countries waters and the "illegal fuel" when they are in international waters and no one cares.

>> No.17081627

>>17081583
to add to your question, fuels are not produced in thirld world shitholes, cheapest bunkers historically are Russia (yes ok shithole nevertheless) and Rotterdam + Skaw (which is kinda Russian fuel lately as they simply barge it all the way from Ust luga - St Pete)

Im actually very happy we have a shipping discussion for once here aside from bsv scammers and link pajeets

>> No.17081640

>>17081615
not quite, it is also illegal in international waters and can be traced by monitoring the log books on board, you are not even allowed to have it without a scrubber on the 1st of March at all , whether you burn it or not

>> No.17081657

>>17081640
Yea, I went and read up a bit about it looks like you are right.

>> No.17081663

>>17081583
It's part of MARPOL, if you violate MARPOL then port state control can tear you a new asshole, especially in countries that don't fuck around like the US of A.

>>17081615
There is a carriage ban so if your ship doesn't have a scrubber you can't even carry high-sulphur fuel oil legally.

>> No.17081668

>>17081571
Best stock/ETF to short?

I know nothing of this sector.

>> No.17081690

>>17081668
there is an absolute correlation with commodities and brent crude prices, easier to short those than gamble on shipowners desu, at least from my perspective, ship shares are cheap, so you can get margin called easy, so easier just to buy once you feel they are cheap, again, i would not put my money there

>> No.17081753

>>17081663
Got any sweet info about dying owners/charterers btw? heard western bulk is getting anally destroyed financially

>> No.17081806

>>17081753

>Financially violated

>> No.17081819

>>17081753
Charterers always die suddenly, for example Sanko and Hanjin. One day it's just gone.

Western Bulk has had issues for a long time now but I think the sums involved are tiny compared to the deep pockets of the company's backers.

>> No.17081848

This is one of the best threads I've seen in biz in a long long time, I've learned a lot of new things here. If you don't mind where can I find more information about the shipping industry?

>> No.17081854

>>17081497
>>17081537
Thanks guys! Had to reread them desu
I won't add anything cause its clear I couldn't tell you anything of value KEK. Thanks again

>> No.17081872

>>17081848
>If you don't mind where can I find more information about the shipping industry?
Second

>> No.17081884

>>17081848
it is extremely impressive how closed this industry is, there is very little information online on how it actually works, i can only recommend doing a course like ICS for chartering and ship management, and google different kind of the industrys segments, from tankers, dry bulk, to LNG and car carriers

for clearly educational purposes i can post some book titles which you should be able to find online for free, otherwise i will make a torrent

>> No.17081934

>>17081884
Any books or links you have would be greatly appreciated

>> No.17081944

>>17081819
rumours have it that their financial status is so bad we are supposed to avoid fixing them, not to mention having an open balance with them

>> No.17082003

>>17081944
Counterparty risk becomes less of a priority when you've been spot 10-15 days fishing for cargoes

>> No.17082007

>>17080991
>>17081040
>basedbeans
>onions
ugh this is no longer funny.

>> No.17082012

These companies are highly leveraged. Think of how much of a loan you'd need to buy a Panamax. With commodities this low, they will risk defaulting. If this is a good chunk of the American economy, this might ripple to Junk bond holders.

>> No.17082016

>>17081934
I'm super interested also
>>17081884
The only thing I could offer in return would be Anon Kreils Courses. Which I only recently completed. I kinda think you might laugh though, as You're probably beyond it...
https://mega.nz/#F!0SRC1YKL!rVqp1WtBUHsOKm-ig_KiMQ

Thanks Anon!

>> No.17082024

>>17080723
retired by june
>feelsgoodman.png

>> No.17082322
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17082322

how much time do we have?

>> No.17082375

>>17082016
https://seatracker.ru/viewtopic.php?t=9165

my favorite book probably , highly recommended

>> No.17082379

>>17082322
a month

>> No.17082434

>>17082375
Which book?

And holy fucking shit OP this is big

>> No.17082549

>>17080860
You dumb bastard if you are 5 YEARS EARLY you are fucking WRONG

>> No.17082575

>>17080606

>> No.17082620
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17082620

The question I ask my bros is what sectors of the U.S economy are doing well given the large amounts of debt? I work retail(major home improvement company) and we're still pulling in record revenue for the 2019 fiscal year...

>> No.17082694

>>17080606
> index for large bulk carriers went negative
I don't even shipping. What does this mean?

>> No.17082722

>>17082375
>9165
Sweet thanks! Looks like some interesting resources on there!
I know it will probably sound kinda weird but this book looks interesting thanks, I love these law type books.

>> No.17082730

Great thread. Hyperdeflation here we go.

>> No.17082736

man this thread is awesome.

Is there a way to invest in this outside of traditional stock? I know brent vs commodities were mentioned. I've also seen the past really cool data via APIs to track ship movements but would have no idea where to start.

>> No.17082872

>>17082375
Holy fuck, some interesting books on there! thanks anon!

>> No.17082918

>>17080624
OP BTFO

>> No.17082937

>>17080606
>Capesize Index
more like capsize index amirite

>> No.17082963
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17082963

>>17080925
This. It's fucking feast or famine out here.
t. west coast longshoreman

>> No.17082982

>>17081119
Yeah and some company will buy the other company and they'll change names and everyone will move on just like when Hanjin folded.

>> No.17082983
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17082983

>>17082937
yeah u right lmao

>> No.17083179

>>17082963
oy vey bubbulah, are you local 13?

>> No.17083190

>>17083179
Yup.

>> No.17083205

>>17083190
small world. nightside?

>> No.17083240

>>17083205
im actually just a casual

>> No.17083312

>>17083240
Robots, cancer, and unemployment is all you have to look forward to.

>> No.17083338

>>17083312
I'm 80% disabled from the military so casualing is a good little sidejob. If I feel like making some extra scratch I go down. If its a lash or autos I step out of line and flop.

>> No.17083348

>>17080974
Corresponds well with market wide selloffs

>> No.17083439

>>17082983
thats a cite dog

>> No.17083478

Leaf here who works transload. Grain from railcars into shipping containers. China hates canada grain rn and we are suffering. Going to be laid off for the summer for sure.

>> No.17083591

>>17081150
This is true. How do I long lobsters?

>> No.17083619

>>17083478
>transload
sounds p. gay

>> No.17083630

one of the more interesting threads i've read on /biz/ for a while, thanks anons

>> No.17083669

>>17080606
welp fuck
there goes my ticket out of 10 years of college

>> No.17083678

>>17082549
Chinese markets lost 40-50% in 2015

>> No.17083720
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17083720

So does this mean all the bvll fags get btfo'ed this year?
Is the year of the bear finally here?

>> No.17083797

>>17083478
How do you get the crain into the containers? Do you just use those soft top cans? Or do you have one of those crazy machines than can lift the box up 90 degrees so the doors are facing the sky?

>> No.17084146

>>17081627

and this is why craig and sirgay need to face prison time. look at this board flourishing in beautiful ways. we need to report them to the SEC and bombard all threads.

>> No.17084265

>>17083797
Yea the scale we have lifts the can up to about 70 degrees. We have a door in it made of 2x4 and cardboard to hold it in when the can comes down to shut the doors.
>>17083619
It is

>> No.17084389

>>17081884
What are the best shipping stocks to buy?

>> No.17084432

>>17084265
Based. Hope you dont get laid off bro. Will the new north american trade deal help or hurt?

>> No.17084494

>>17081668
yang and chad