/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.16939783]

The bull market of the 2010's was the longest bull market in history. To what degree is it thanks to gov't and central bank measurements (QE, low interest rates in Europe and USA, massive investment by the Chinese gov't) and to what degree is it sustainable growth? Do you expect a crash and if so, where will the crash occur (Technology, finance, housing market) and how severe is it going to be (how long will the recession/depression last, what percentage of current market capitalization will be annihilated)?

[Anonymous No.16939975]

bump

[Anonymous No.16940016]

>>16939783
Sorry anon, this board have low iq

[Anonymous No.16940029]

>>16939783
The crash will be in fiat money.

[Anonymous No.16940053]

>>16939783
> To what degree is it thanks to gov't and central bank measurements (QE, low interest rates in Europe and USA, massive investment by the Chinese gov't)
All of it

>and to what degree is it sustainable growth

None of it. It's all pushing numbers around.

No one can really say what will happen but it'll probably be bad for the goyim.

[Anonymous No.16940063]

>>16939783
Over the next 6 months a huge percentage of baby boomers will be retiring and will start pulling out of their 401ks as opposed to putting in. This around April will be the shock to the system that pops the bubble when millions of old people go to take out their first retirement benefits and realize they're only worth half of what they've put in over the course of their entire lives. They will turn to their children (millennials) for help who have no money. Some will try to find jobs again, more will attempt to sell off everything they have. Right now stupid money is buying these stocks through their 401ks, its one of the last major things sustaining the market.

[Anonymous No.16940070]

>>16939783
> To what degree is it thanks to gov't and central bank measurements (QE, low interest rates in Europe and USA, massive investment by the Chinese gov't) and to what degree is it sustainable growth?
100% due to central banks monetary policy (qe and bailouts).

>Do you expect a crash and if so, where will the crash occur (Technology, finance, housing market) and how severe is it going to be?
The thing is, this is the "new normal" so personally i expect that in the us, whatever the crash might be, the fed will step in and bail out any company and inject liquidity, so they'll just print more money to counteract the crash.
For example, if student loans become unsustainable, the govt will just "pardon" all student debt with freshly minted cash from the fed, and nothing will happen.
What does this mean in practice? That wealth inequality will reach an extreme (banks and people heavily invested in stocks will own 99,99% of the money supply), so these people would be able to do whatever they want with their money, buy up tons of consumer goods and drive up inflation (but they probably wont) or just use it for power and political influence.
So we will see possibly some inflation and devaluation of the us dollar, nations being fully controlled by banks and billionaires, but no more crashes in the stock market ever, any crash will be swiftly followed by cash injection so prices will get back up quickly

Now, this is only valid for the us and countries with sovreign monetary policy. Europe on the other hand will have issues, since the ecb has a very weak mandate and cannot bail out companies or finance government deficit, so when some kind of crash happens in europe (eg. deutsche bank going bankrupt or a eurozone country leaving), then europe will be in much worse condition. The next crash catalist might not be in the us like Lehman, it might be in europe or china

[Anonymous No.16940075]

It also had a lot to do with our transition to a service economy, where the average Joe now has nothing better to do but to invest, made easier with apps like robinhood, etc. I wouldn't say it's all QE, there is definitely a natural element to it.

[Anonymous No.16940100]

>>16939783
>To what degree is it thanks to gov't and central bank measurements (QE, low interest rates in Europe and USA, massive investment by the Chinese gov't) and to what degree is it sustainable growth?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGMBASE


You tell me, if you are not accumulating btc you are fucked.

[Anonymous No.16940102]

>>16939783
s&p should stabilze back at hard support at 1,500 after a crash i guess, which means value will be halved, if we go by cosmic irony the 'halvening' will mean the great crash of 2020/21 and not the bitcoin stuff. Now which sector of the economy kicks it off is an interesting question, i feel like it wont be a repeat of the last couple crashes, lightning doesn't hit in the same spot twice, so it won't be housing or IT or oil. but what will it be?

[Anonymous No.16940106]

>>16940029
Yes, but in what sector will the speculation manifest? For example, in 2008 it manifested in on the US housing market. Where'll it be this time? What do you think?

>>16940053
I think, "all of it" is a too much, because the market was over-sold after the world financial crisis in 2008, and a growth of a specific size was to be expected.

[Anonymous No.16940193]

>>16940063
why over the next 6 mornths?

[Anonymous No.16940276]

>>16940106
The speculation is everywhere. Some people call this the ''everything bubble''. The biggest bubble might be index funds but I'm not sure.

[Anonymous No.16940304]

>>16940102
What I observed is a strong growth of in US IT sector, Apple's stock having increased by >2000 percent since 2009, Microsoft's stock having increased by >1000 percent since 2009, Amazon's stock having increased by even >4000 percent since 2009, facebook increasing by >1000 percent since 2012. It looks as if it's overheated. Then there's the severe structural shift in the European/German industrial sector, and the suspicious gov't interference, manifested in the "renewable energy" in the early 2010's, or now the campaign for the "electric mobility" in the late 2010's and early 2020's. Also China's interesting, with it's gigantic "silk road" campaign (that's in total opposition to US interest) and its poor performance in the "trade war" against the US, there's also an overheated housing market both in China and in Europe. Add to that, the still problematic situation in the (foremost, European) banking sector and in Southern Europe, overall, especially Italy.

[Anonymous No.16940342]

>longest bull market in history
>2011 and 2018 drops d-dont count guys! it was 19.99% instead of 20%!

[Anonymous No.16940386]

>>16939783
It is 100% due to the fed dropping rates to 0 for years. Not denying that there’s good companies who turn profit and have good stock, but most only had that opportunity due to free money at their disposal. The result will be hyperinflation like literally every other fucking time in history. Buy bullets

[Anonymous No.16940402]

>>16940276
Here, in Germany, boomers have been told, to invest in investment funds, for ~25 years now. The reason being, that the statutory institutions can not provide the services, anymore, due to the demographic shift. They're in a gold rush mood. Boasting about how the profits, they made, I spoke to Boomers, who even believed this bull market would be continuing 'till the 2030's. They're additionally incited by the astronomic increase of the prices in the housing market, of which Boomers traditionally own a good chunk.

[Anonymous No.16940411]

>>16940063
You dont know what youre talking about. Baby Boomer pensions make up a very small amount of the market and if they all pulled out at the same time it would cause about a 5% drop before Genx and Millennial retirement accounts fill it back up

[Anonymous No.16940432]

>>16940342
Durr what's the definition of recession again?

[Anonymous No.16940446]

>>16940342
2011 - ~16%
2018 - ~18%
Also, the market recovered quickly:
2011 - ~ 5 months
2018 - ~ 4 months

[Anonymous No.16940447]

>>16940402
>They're additionally incited by the astronomic increase of the prices in the housing market, of which Boomers traditionally own a good chunk.

Crypto will rise and end the fourth turning peaceful or crypto may fall and the western civilization will fall with it.

This is all it's about western welfare states are intergenerational ponzi schemes , boomers vote for leftist degenerates that increase the monetary base and pump their assets while genx , milenials and zoomers slave knowing they will not ever own a fucking shack.

[Anonymous No.16940500]

>>16940446
no they were both 19%, its semantics to say they dont count

>>16940432
recession isnt whats being discussed, Bull/Bear market is

[Anonymous No.16940514]

>>16940411
Well that's just not true. Municipal pensions alone have a combined 3.8 trillion in assets and unlike social security they invest heavily in equities.

[Anonymous No.16940542]

>>16940500
Recessions are bear markets. Equity is priced with future returns in mind.

[Anonymous No.16940552]

>>16940514
thats not baby boomers though, thats the total market

[Anonymous No.16940562]

>>16940500
Well, I'm talking about the S&P 500, and from September 21, 2018 to December 21, 2018 it fell by 17,51 percent, from 2929.67 points to 2416.62 points. It closed at 2939.88 points in April 26, 2019, which is ~ 4 months later.

[Anonymous No.16940632]

>>16940562
nigga I have the chart open right now
19.39% drop in 2011 and 19.78% drop in 2018

>>16940542
not by definition of a 20% drop. The bull market has only been going on for a year and I stand by my theory that institutions purposely made 2011 and 2018 19% specifically to trick retail into thinking they werent bear markets

[Anonymous No.16940643]

>>16940500
Of course it's semantics. What's your point? To say they do count is also semantics.

[Anonymous No.16940659]

>>16940552
Of which baby boomers make up an enormous amount.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/lenney_lutz_sheiner_MFC_Final.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiK--f25ZXnAhVMG80KHacZApIQFjAJegQIBhAB&usg=AOvVaw2JSzhqVrDJGOLMYDkpKihe&cshid=1579647631332

You can see this pretty clearly with the current state of pension funds as well.

www.forbes.com/sites/ebauer/2019/07/08/chicago-pensions-are-no-longer-27-funded-its-now-23/amp/

The boomers were indexed to say higher returns then the pensions could actually provide, along with much shorter working ages. The market probably won't collapse just because of it, but it's already draining municipal taxes heavy and it's no where near peak outflow yet.

[Anonymous No.16940684]

>>16940632
Bear markets are extended periods of decline coinciding with growth slowdowns or decreases. I think a correction is more apt. We haven't seen any economic deterioration during those draw downs. The longest period of economic growth is just a valid as the longest bull market in my mind. You would have to be a grade a idiot to not buy the dips if growth isn't slowing.

[Anonymous No.16940720]

>>16940632
Please post a screenshot of that chart.

[Anonymous No.16940746]

>>16940643
My point is that you cant claim longest bull market in history with two 20% drops. Not to mention the nasdaq went down 23%

>>16940684
well then we have to agree to disagree because by that measure the longest bull run was 1950 to 1968. Stock market also went up during one of those recessions

[Anonymous No.16940778]

>>16940720
just open any chart with trandingview tools and use the measurement tool. This actually says 21% but I believe thats off

[Anonymous No.16940800]

>>16940746
That's not true. We had recessions in 57-58 and 60-61. We didn't have recessions in 61-68 though which also didn't have a bear market.

[Anonymous No.16940840]

>>16940800
so you consider 59/60 to be a bear market even though it was only a 13% drop during that recession?

[Anonymous No.16940872]

>>16940840
Yes. The recession lasted for 3 quarters. If you had invested when growth turned up you would have made money.

Sep 30, 1958 -0.72%
Jun 30, 1958 -2.02%
Mar 31, 1958 -2.87%

Equity, especially indices, are frontline for trade and growth.

[Anonymous No.16940874]

yeah bravo we loaded up on 50 trillion in sovereign debt gave it all to the fuckboys at the private banks and created a bubble that will vanish in the next correction.
your children's children will still be paying this shit off

[Anonymous No.16940942]

>>16940778
I checked a few sources, whether or not they consider the period from 2009 to now to be one coherent bull market. These here are skeptical,
>https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-longest-bull-market-in-us-history-2018-04-27
>https://www.investopedia.com/news/really-longest-bull-market-history/
while others support the claim,
>https://www.investopedia.com/market-milestones-as-the-bull-market-turns-10-4588903
>https://youtu.be/gHTVkue17Ds
It doesn't distract from the fact, that a major recession (50 - 60% annihilation of market capitalization) is probable, though.

[Anonymous No.16940956]

>>16940411
>making shit up
Are you a boomer or just retarded? Boomers control 70% of US assets

[Anonymous No.16941059]

>>16939783
I figure there can be calamity in the next few years because I too recognize how far the market has gone. I plan on buying land near a natural water source, maybe table water in the rocks, then building a "cabin" out there. That's what I'll be telling my normie friends at least.

It'll have a hydro generator, solar power, ranch with life stock, food growing with automated watering systems, water purifiers, and of course my battle station to play Warhammer II while being comfy in the woods. And if it doesn't happen then at least I have a cool ranch to retreat to every once in a while.

[Anonymous No.16941090]

>>16940942
>(50 - 60% annihilation of market capitalization) is probable
not even remotely probable with QE and corporate tax cuts. Not sure why youd think that

>>16940956
You must have poor reading comprehension. 70% is not owned by soon to be retired baby boomers, not even close

[Anonymous No.16941160]

New investor here. How in the fuck do I buy in to this market? It feels like buying into the top. The fed has to wind down there balance sheet and there has to be a correction, doesn't there?

[Anonymous No.16941166]

>>16941160
Its not the same as crypto. Just get in.

[Anonymous No.16941318]

>>16941090
These are the reasons, why I believe it:
1. Today, there's never been a greater "flood" of money - that was and is caused by the central banks
2. That results in share repurchases, as they've been never seen before, as well as a huge amount of take-overs. That results in a significant shortage of stocks and a significant profit from stocks.
3. There is a lack of alternatives in a low-interest environment and bonds for mainstream-investors yield no positive, but negative returns.
4. The cheap money and the US taxation reform extend the US business cycle for several years. Consequently, the dynamic of profits and the profit margins remain much longer on a historical peak than in previous business cycles.

I'd like to go in more detail, but unfortunately it's a bit late here. I'll be posting similar threads in the future.

[Anonymous No.16941352]

Stocks only go up.
I am not even joking.
There is literally no way a stock market crashes because in the long period of time, stocks go up. I bought during 2018 and my stocks are now up over 50%.
My options that I put were up over 100%.
I am literally winning in life and we'll all be rich soon.

[Anonymous No.16941389]

REMINDER:
Be open to better than expected outcomes

[Anonymous No.16941390]

>>16941352
I'm glad you're making it anon. I too have put in money into the stock market. I used to play it just for quick cash, but when I looked closer, I realized that even when I sold before a 5% dip in a stock, I still never made as much money as I would have had I just left it in since 18. So I'm doing it the montly fool way now and just buying rock solid companies and holding.
Tesla is going to be great as it expands into solar tiles and more. Good purchase.

[Anonymous No.16941452]

>>16941352
Stolen from WSB

[Anonymous No.16941471]

Well, the thing about big violent crashes is that they tend to rebound pretty quickly too. The people who only truly lose in the stock market are short term speculators with their life savings in options and leveraged funds.

[Anonymous No.16941482]

>>16940193
1957 was peak boomer. They're all turning 62 this year which is when you can use social security benefits, this plus 401ks usually make up people's retirements, so right around then is when most retire and start selling as opposed to buying. Sometime around May the Boomer generation will officially be more of an economic burden than a producer as a whole.

[Anonymous No.16941499]

>>16941482

Damn, didn't realize the US was sub 2.0 rate since the 70's.

[Anonymous No.16941500]

>>16941389
>every human life is worth the same
these shithead kids don't know how to work, everyone wants to be a youtube star. America is not really producing anything, were just consuming and supporting a quickly aging military.

[Anonymous No.16941526]

>>16941500

[Anonymous No.16941534]

>>16941389
>>16941500

Doesn't matter, AI is picking up the slack in their stead. And American markets are open up to the world like never before, people the world over are storing their cash in US equities. This will continue until the day that the US isn't the safest country on the planet anymore, which will be a long time. China is too corrupt.

[Anonymous No.16941546]

>>16941059
I was thinking of doing the same thing in the mountains of west Virginia

[Anonymous No.16941571]

>>16939783
Fake bull run. Reap economy is in shambles

[Anonymous No.16941576]

also its pretty much guaranteed that the jews crash the market before the 2020 presidential election. They want Trump to lose and that only happens if the economy tanks.

[Anonymous No.16941586]

>>16941576
No they don't, hes completely pro-Jew/Zionist.

[Anonymous No.16941596]

Niggas the economy won't fail, currency will. Invest in gold or oil or crypto.

[Anonymous No.16941638]

>>16941586
Redpilled on zion don

[Anonymous No.16941682]

>>16941390
Not my purchase. I purchased other stuff like, Uber my recent purchas and bynd meat.

>>16941452
That's why I said my options over 100% and not exactly that number in pic. Everybody is winning in this economy. Yeah sure there will be a recession probably very soon but make opportunities with the current markets.

[Anonymous No.16941734]

>>16940659
underrated post. Wealth transfer isn't happening and in the end American boomers didn't pay out as much as the banks were saying they would. There are half built subway systems across America because of how high they thought the population would be but there was a huge drop in children born afterwards.

>>16941534
AI can not maintain crumbling American infrastructure, from chemical processes for farming to energy production. I've seen it first hand, there are positions that can not be filled because knowledge was not handed down.

American equities are no longer "American", stocks are international corporations that pull profit from everywhere, and bonds are the infinite-money-printing Fed. China produces too much money for those companies to ever allow a serious war to happen, however 5G should make you feel much less "safe" than it currently is.

[Anonymous No.16941862]

>>16941596
>invest in oil
Are you not paying any attention?

[Anonymous No.16941873]

>>16941734
>5G should make you feel much less "safe" than it currently is.
...what?

[Anonymous No.16941900]

>>16941352
>Posting reddit content as a LARP
The absolute state of biz

[Anonymous No.16941949]

>>16941900
>As larp
>>16941682

[Anonymous No.16942306]

>>16941734
>There are half built subway systems across America because of how high they thought the population would be but there was a huge drop in children born afterwards.
what? PEople have been talking about a huge population decline since the late 80s.

[Anonymous No.16942405]

>>16941734
>AI can not maintain crumbling American infrastructure, from chemical processes for farming to energy production. I've seen it first hand, there are positions that can not be filled because knowledge was not handed down.
This has been my short 3 year corporate experience. Boomers seem to be absolutely horrendous at knowledge transmission. There are hardly any succession plans, if ever. This shit wrecks havoc. It's surprising how this detail matters so much.

[Anonymous No.16942474]

>>16939783
The crash will be in real estate. REITs have been propped up by a boomer generation that mistakenly believe real estate can still hold a candle to intellectual property. Particularly commercial real estate will be hit hard. Malls and office space are about to get fucked. Personal real estate will just stagnate. Oil gold and other commodities will also take a hit. Modern efficiency will make them feel nearly limitless.

Tech is actually undervalued as is stands despite the large market caps you see. I don’t think we will get the crash people are expecting. Just a sideways chop.

[Anonymous No.16942822]

>>16941389
Isn't the second leg up hyperinflation? That's my guess as to where we're going. Real estate will correct. I think that the wasteland of fucked up cardboard stucco houses is the worse part of the real estate issue

[Anonymous No.16943602]

>>16942822
What fucking hyperinflation?
When did the US become Venezuela?

>>16942474
>>16942822
Wishful thinking... Foreign money has been flooding into US equity and real estate. The bubble may only inflate until everyone is living paycheck to paycheck to afford rent.

[Anonymous No.16943656]

>>16941499
But don't worry, we're filling up with spics to replace all the dying white people. It'll be great.

[Anonymous No.16943677]

>>16941499
They arent. Reread your y axes.

[Anonymous No.16944880]

>>16939783
finance related to student loan debts

[Anonymous No.16944902]

>>16940070
I think you underestimate the consequences of debasing currency, it is litterally what rekt the Roman empire.
But on the short term (ie 50 years) I think you are very correct.
Long term, the bailouts will incentivize more and more reckless behaviour on the part of the banks, which will culminate in the general population switching to crypto.

[Anonymous No.16945210]

>>16941166
>peak euphoria / delusion
Mfw