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2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance

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16742655 No.16742655 [Reply] [Original]

Will we see a Crash in 2020?

>> No.16742696

>>16742655
>he thinks (())) havent solved the red candle problem

>> No.16742726

>>16742655
we don't just "get" crashes, like they're on some kind of a timer. they're all caused by some bullshit.

if no bullshit happens (like the sub prime mortgage scam for 2008) why don't you think the market would continue up indefinitely? It's not like gambler's fallacy where you think we're "due" for a crash, it's a question of what do you think would actually be the cause that would make everyone bail from the stock market?

>> No.16742761

>>16742726
>why don't you think the market would continue up indefinitely
Yep, we're definitely due for a crash any month now

>> No.16742767

unlikely desu, but having some stuff saved up in gold and silver does not hurt.

>> No.16742785

>>16742726

It's all to do with liquidity. The difference between a bubble bursting and a bubble continuing to grow is the availability of more credit.

Which is why 2018 was such a bad year on paper, because the big banks threw a tantrum over the direction of monetary policy in Q4.

>> No.16742795

>>16742726
>everything will continue to be peaches & cream, with no bullshit, forever & ever

>> No.16742810

>>16742726
usa v. iran is what's going to "cause" the oncoming crash.

>> No.16742818

>>16742761

By and large it's true though. For the last 100 years, there were only a few times that you shouldn't have been invested in the stock market.

1929.
1937.
1974.
2000.
2007.

These highs were eventually retested and eclipsed. The corrections in the meantime can be very scary though.

>> No.16742825

>>16742810

9/11 and the resulting invasion of Afghanistan/Iraq did a number on the indexes back in the early 00s. The bubble had already burst in 2000, but the trough wasn't hit until 2002 IIRC.

>> No.16742842

This chart is incorrect. We just had a 20% peak to trough downturn in q4 2018 and before that one from mid 2015 to feb 2016....does no one here remember “the worst start to the stock market ever in history” articles in 2016???

(((They))) want you to be scared and sell your stocks. Luckily I am fully deployed and have margined my account over 100% going long.

We’re all going to make it bro’s. Don’t listen to (((Goldman)))

>> No.16742894

>>16742842

Yeah, but remember it was in Dec 2015 that the Fed attempted to raise rates for the first time. The markets took a shit and the Fed backed off until December 2016.

Then Q4 2018 happened and the Fed was on "autopilot" for raising rates, and the market promptly took a shit again.

It's all about liquidity. Asset prices are directly linked to monetary policy.

>> No.16742941

>>16742894
100% agree anon....this is a story of liquidity. I don’t think it’s cooncidence that the market started fracturing in q4 2018 because of liquidity constraints from oil and gas lending writedowns and the current regulatory regime the banks are in and then munchin comes out and says “the banks are fine and well capitalized” out of no where

Then mysteriously a few weeks later we have the short term funding crisis in the repo market.

We have essentially guaranteed the next collapse as a function of bank regulation BUT UNTIL THEN we are in the bubble inflation. And you need to find bubbles and grab them to make yourself rich!

Just be smarter than the average normie

>> No.16743020

>>16742810
Cold hard facts fren

>> No.16743057

>>16742726
Central banking is the issue this time around

>> No.16743117

Is now a good time to learn/start investing? I know there's a lot of talk of a crash but I'm recently graduated and finally have some desposable income i'd like to get started with. Is robinhood a good starting point?

>> No.16743144

The crash has already begun everywhere except for the stock market. It takes time.

>> No.16743146

>>16743117
Yes, start investing. Don’t wait

>> No.16743152

>>16743117
idk man my stock portfolio reaches new hights every week and my social media is full of people that buy stocks. Also, I get so many ads on devices without adblocker to buy stocks, new stock apps whatsoever.
I think we will see a huge correction soon

>> No.16743154

Safex scam

>> No.16743160

>>16743144
amazing post, you managed to be 100% wrong

>> No.16743244

>>16742810
To many reasons this could happen...the Iran thing might not be the catalyst. Fuck it could be a crazy increase in grain prices that kicks this off...the addiction to debt....the repo markets stuttering again, fuck even brexit actually happening. This is global now and a recession is looking more like a depression.

>> No.16743262

>>16742655
No. We are currently living in the clown timeline where nothing happens. The bull run will go on for the next 20 years because central banks can just UBI to keep the goyim pacified and not riot once all the jobs are automated by AI

>> No.16743745

Crash?, No
Correction? Soon

>> No.16744824

>>16742655
it depends on how much money the Jews want to print

>> No.16744864

>>16742655
It dropped over 19% in late 2018, this chart is goal-post moving horseshit. We unironically just entered the bull run, which will only speed up once Trump wins reelection.

>> No.16744882

>>16742655
if trump is not re-elected, for sure

>> No.16744896 [DELETED] 
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16744896

>>16742655
No. It will be October 24, 2029.

>> No.16744905

>>16742795
That's not what he's saying you fuckwad, he's just saying that bull markets end by an identifiable cause, not just old age.
>>16742761
retard

>> No.16744916

>>16743262
You do realize the kikes will kill us all once everything is automated, right? Why do you think they're investing so heavily into A.I. and robotics?

>> No.16744936

>>16742655
There was just a 20% drawback in December. Check your facts before posting FUD u dumbie.

>> No.16744964

>>16744905
Cope

>> No.16744972

>>16744964
dilate

>> No.16744979

>>16744916

No no anon, we need UBI so that we're even more hopelessly dependent on authoritarians that can just pull the plug at will once we've outlived our use

>> No.16744990

>>16744972
seethe

>> No.16745010

>>16744990
cringe

>> No.16745054

we had a 20% drawdown december 2018. Enjoy 10 more years of bull market faggot

>> No.16745239

>>16745054
just like bitcoin, it stopped just shy of 20

>> No.16746124

>>16742726
We learn from history that we do not learn from history.

>> No.16746168

>>16742726
>if no bullshit happens (like the sub prime mortgage scam for 2008) why don't you think the market would continue up indefinitely?
stocks are going up because of stocks buyback, no retail is throwing money while we speak (except for some Apple/Tesla fanboy)
FED plan was to inject liquidity into real economy but clearly the machine is broken and people are starting to save instead of spending, so corporations just want to keep floating in every possible way
it cannot last for too long
rate are already low
qe did not work at all, and that liquidity is now backfiring, banks are suffering, and now they call it "repo", just because qe sounds bad
the sand castle is collapsing

>> No.16746172

people are being super optimistic about the stock market for this year. Like trump said EVERYBODY is getting rich. The bubble will pop soon. Those motherfuckers here on /biz would have not believed you that the bubble will pop in 2018 everybody was super optimistic. Everybody said that ETH will hit 2-3k in 2018 and that more retail investors will get into crypto etc. they said 2018 will be the year of crypto and boy they were wrong. I learned my lesson the hard way and i know that greed is a bitch.

>> No.16746222

>>16742655
>without a 20% drawdown
it literally dumped 20% a year ago dumbass