/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.16665163]

posted this yesterday but most anons didn't see it, so reposting.

>Celebrating Three Decades of Worldwide Stock Market Manipulation
>https://arxiv.org/pdf/1912.01708.pdf

>what proof is there that the stock market is manipulated?
see pics related

>earnings reports you dumb fucking retard. go fucking think about what you have done
ok, so explain china, which is the one country which disallows the strategy

>what is the strategy?
markets are less liquid in the morning than in the evening and spreads are wider
with large purchases, make the market gap open in the morning. then close your position in the evening.
your trade itself will lose money, but you'll inflate asset prices, and overall you will make money from price appreciation on your existing portfolio

[Anonymous No.16665167]

[Anonymous No.16665192]

>>16665163
This thread will get zero replies. No one cares because the average age of this board is 16.
I fucking hate crypto.

[Anonymous No.16665231]

>>16665192
Bump

[Anonymous No.16665239]

>conspiratorial rantings
Wow they really don't have the quality controls they used to on Arxiv. The guy doesn't even have an affiliation.

[Anonymous No.16665287]

>>16665239
Ignoring that this is a logistical fallacy, he claims he was an experimental particle physicist for a decade, a physics prof at MIT for five years, and worked as a quant for a hedge fund for six

[Anonymous No.16665315]

>>16665287
Mental illness knows no bounds. Looked him up on Linkedin and the only thing he has going for him in the last 5 years is a failed startup. I'm still gonna read it, but already the intro contains a retarded lung analogy that he somehow has to explain in multiple paragraphs as if talking to 5 years old. This is not an academic paper and has no place on Arxiv.

[Anonymous No.16665394]

>>16665163
A lot of people already know about this and definitely exploit it. Good for you for spreading it to people on the outside though. There's other tricks people use now thanks to all sorts of microstructure clusterfucks introduced and supported specifically on U.S. markets in the past decade. For example, I'm telling you with about as close to 100% certainty as I can have regarding anything, if the SEC didn't implement their short sale restriction/"alternative uptick rule" in 2010, the U.S. stock market would completely collapse because of the underlying societal causes of the GCF which haven't been truly resolved.

The amount of inefficiency being facilitated as a matter of policy is absolutely jaw dropping and any time people try to capitalize on this inefficiency, the SEC swoops in and tries to "patch" it which creates MORE inefficiency! I've told people, I've showed people, I've linked to research and most people can't really appreciate how insane things currently are; it's practically too overwhelming with shit like Epstein going on, Trump's antics, the DNC's antics (to put it lightly), and so on. That's in between trying to make sure the check for their mortgage clears each month. Fucked up markets to them is just more shit piled onto shit mountain.

[Anonymous No.16665404]

>>16665394
Sounds interesting. I'd read any links you think are worth reading.
I've always wanted to better understand market microstructure.

[Anonymous No.16665418]

Holy fucking kek it doesn’t get more blatant than this...

[Anonymous No.16665812]

>>16665163
How do I make money of it?

[Anonymous No.16665838]

>>16665812
Don't be invested when the bubble pops

[Anonymous No.16665848]

>>16665404
Sure thing. This site is a great place to start:
http://www.nanex.net/NxResearch/ResearchPage/0/?sort_val=recommended
What makes that place good is that not only is the content good, but it has a lot of "rabbit holes" you can explore which leads to other stuff like issues/controversy regarding IEX. To understand microstructure in a more general sense there are some pretty easy reads as far as I'm concerned that give a pretty good foundation. I won't link them specifically since I'm not promoting authors, but you can search on Amazon (just search market microstructure) and you'll find some good books from Wiley publishing.

[Anonymous No.16666005]

>>16665163

any other redpills your willing to share?

[Anonymous No.16666033]

Brainlet here, difference between blue and green line in OP picture?

[Anonymous No.16666062]

>>16665163
Damn I’ve heard of this before but never looked into it. I’m monitoring this thread to look into when I’m off wageslaving. Thanks anon.

[Anonymous No.16666101]

>>16665287
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6rF4x9dYjy4LW1nOHJBUW5Fems/view

>higher than 4.0 GPA
um how is this possible?

[Anonymous No.16666294]

>>16666033
Cumulative returns based upon only holding intraday, vs only holding overnight. There's a legend in the pics.

[Anonymous No.16666498]

>>16665394


>>16665394
Whats your btc price prediction?

[Anonymous No.16667054]

Bump

[Anonymous No.16667119]

>>16665394
How do I profit from this

[Anonymous No.16667131]

>>16665848
I see you're a man of culture.
Watch Vpro documentaries anons.

[Anonymous No.16667184]

>>16667131
>Vpro
wat dis?

[Anonymous No.16667224]

>>16667184
Vpro, an independent dutch based organization specialized in documentaries.
Watch one of them called "the flash crash".
That's how I got to know about nanex.

[Anonymous No.16667315]

>>16665394
>>16665848
based, thanks for the suggestion anon

[Anonymous No.16667569]

>>16665163
>markets are less liquid in the morning than in the evening and spreads are wider
>with large purchases, make the market gap open in the morning. then close your position in the evening.
>your trade itself will lose money, but you'll inflate asset prices, and overall you will make money from price

zoomer here, so are you basically saying to buy early in the morning, then sell before the market closes? While keeping some existing stock to feed into the inflation?

[Anonymous No.16667603]

>>16667569
I think he means to do this if you own a company or a big investment in it

[Anonymous No.16667633]

>>16665192
>average age of this board is 16.
No biz is a 30 yo boomer board you fucking dolt.

[Anonymous No.16667709]

>>16667603
this

[Anonymous No.16667774]

>>16667569
no you buy before the market opens and sell to the plebs in the evening

[Anonymous No.16667853]

>>16667774
I'm cucked using Robinhood and I don't believe they allow me to trade before market opening.
What broker you use? I'm interested in exploiting this

[Anonymous No.16667885]

>>16667119
Join a market microstructure hedge fund but you’re too retarded for that

[Anonymous No.16667892]

>>16667774
Ok now I get it.

[Anonymous No.16667902]

>>16665192
Majority here is 25-35 yo

[Anonymous No.16667906]

>>16667853
doesn't trading before market opens cost extra?

[Anonymous No.16668113]

>>16665163
So if I buy any stock in the morning and sell at market close every day, my returns will be much higher than if I HODL? Is that what this is saying?

[Anonymous No.16668165]

>>16668113
Sort if. It's described a mechanism by which prices are inflated beyond what you'd expect from stochastic modeling, fundamental analysis, and/or the sense you have about "sincere" market participants. If anything it's telling you to have a long bias over a long time frame.

[Anonymous No.16668513]

Bump

[Anonymous No.16668611]

i just backtested this on US markets, this dude is doing something wrong

[Anonymous No.16668650]

>>16667853
just buy and hold through days lol

[Anonymous No.16668673]

>>16665163
>you will lose money
But I’ll make it up on the volume right?!?

Pass me up with that shit. If I can’t expect a 50% appreciation each year just don’t even call

[Anonymous No.16668851]

hmm, I have no experience with stock markets, but I think I've noticed that you really can manipulate prices at small crypto exchanges, and, indeed, it's done by buying as much as possible and then placing small buy orders when there is large spread, so that you'll be moving prices and closing the spread, thus "fixing" prices (as long as there isn't much movement):
let's say you start when there is a $300 spread and the bid price is $7000, and let's say you already had bought at 7k or less. then you post a few small limit orders at, say, 7120 and 7090. this way, you are moving the bid prices. you'll notice that bots and other buyers start moving their bid orders close to yours. repeat again and again. with time, ask orders will start moving too, and the spread will decrease, but because of your game, you probably won't see it at 7150, but at something like 7200.

[Anonymous No.16668928]

>>16665163
please break this down more simple for me

>markets are less liquid in the morning than in the evening and spreads are wider
with large purchases, make the market gap open in the morning. then close your position in the evening.
your trade itself will lose money, but you'll inflate asset prices, and overall you will make money from price appreciation on your existing portfolio

[Anonymous No.16669261]

>>16668611
He has a github repo with code for replicating

[Anonymous No.16669291]

>>16665163
What’s your exit strategy?

[Anonymous No.16669310]

>>16665163

If anything this tells me I should buy right before close and sell into the morning pump and skip holding risk during the day entirely.

[Anonymous No.16669328]

>>16669310
This seems mainly due to the fact most earnings are announced after close and generally lead to outsized overnight returns, vs the "chop" of a highly liquid day full of buyers and sellers making a market.

[Anonymous No.16669359]

So what do we even do regarding investing?
Hold cash and buy real estate? But that shit's inflated to fuck as well.
Do we just hold cash?

[Anonymous No.16669372]

>>16669359
>stocks and real estate dont wo th k for me
>cash is the only other option

Jesus get a clue

[Anonymous No.16669394]

>>16665192
this thread doesn't get much replies because.. what the fuck do you want us to say? "yes, we acknowledge that happens, thank you for telling us and congrats for finding it".
now what?

[Anonymous No.16669401]

>>16669372
>Jesus get a clue
I'm trying but I grew up poor and only so far learned about marketable skills to make more money.
Now I work and have money, but don't know what to do with it.

[Anonymous No.16669411]

did any of you fags even read the paper? it's not too technical, you don't have an excuse not to

[Anonymous No.16669433]

>>16669401
Just buy an index fund, out money in monthly, and do it till you're ready to retire.

[Anonymous No.16669468]

>>16669401
Just put it all in vanguard index funds for now. They are safe investments. When you learn more about investing or find a good deal on real estate, sell those index funds to fund it.

[Anonymous No.16669474]

>>16669291
Speculating here but a few ideas: something based upon writing options, or, you're an asset manager receiving management fees, or, it's unintentional but still happening (the paper sort of touches on this). Possibly even trading bots could stumble into this by happenstance

[Anonymous No.16669478]

>>16669468
>They are safe investments
How are they safe when stocks are clearly in a bubble as this entire thread states?

[Anonymous No.16669483]

>>16669328
Explain China

[Anonymous No.16669493]

>>16665192
>This thread will get zero replies
It took me literally 1min 17 seconds to do the captcha

[Anonymous No.16669503]

>>16669478
>a broke faggots says it so it must be true

[Anonymous No.16669504]

>>16669478
It's safe because in a long enough time line, it always goes up. It didn't take that long to go back up to 2007 level after the last crash.

[Anonymous No.16669509]

>>16669504
Well...if the market is going to crash soon, wouldn't it be better to accumulate fiat and then go all in when it crashes?

[Anonymous No.16669516]

>>16669433
>>16669468
But aren't stocks scary like >>16669478 pointed out?
Come on anons you're supposed to help me. I have more than 100k just sitting in my savings account and I feel like I should really do something with it besides agonize over choices.

>>16669509
This is the mode of thinking I have. I really don't know what else to do because everything around me looks to be full of shenanigans.

[Anonymous No.16669528]

>>16669509
How do you know that it will crash soon? Trump could get reelected next year and the stock market could keep going up for another 4 years and do another 200-300% for all you know. While your cash will lose value everyday due to inflation. Time in the market>sitting in the sidelines waiting losing value

[Anonymous No.16669563]

>>16669401
Retail arb
Dropshipping
Private label
Review sites
Mobile games
Affiliate marketing
Garage sale flipping
Product development
Fiverr flipping

Millions of things

[Anonymous No.16669579]

>>16669516
It's been "crashing soon" since 2011
Make controlled risk investment into stocks by buying at the close and selling at the open. If you are scared, use limited risk options.

[Anonymous No.16669587]

>>16669579
>buying at the close
index funds do this by default right?

[Anonymous No.16669600]

>>16669563
All of these "millions" of things are poo level scam bullshit.

[Anonymous No.16669616]

>>16669516
If you have 100k sitting in an account, and are too dumb/new to know what to do with it, then dump it into a one year CD, take 2-3% guaranteed interest, and start researching, or go to Meryl Lynch, start an account, and tell your account rep to set it to medium risk growth.

[Anonymous No.16669866]

>>16665163
I asked this yesterday and the thread died. Trading this pattern is free money. What am I missing?

[Anonymous No.16669943]

>>16669866
I'm not sure how easily you can trade this since it's after hours trading on both ends...not sure how that works. I'm ignorant about trading though

[Anonymous No.16669953]

>>16669943
Buy a few minutes before close, sell a few minutes after open everyday. Should be that simple, no?

[Anonymous No.16669972]

>>16669953
Yeah but how do markets gain when closed I never understood that

[Anonymous No.16670014]

>>16669972
Nothing happens overnight. Just in the morning there is someone with a higher bid than there was the day before.

[Anonymous No.16670152]

>>16665287
>logistical
read a fucking dictionary if you want anyone to take you seriously, schizo

[Anonymous No.16670208]

>>16665192
Calm down fag. Repo op threads regularly get 100+ replies.

[Anonymous No.16670227]

>>16667569
That seems to be the exact opposite if what the charts show. If returns are so much greater by holding overnight, then intraday trading is retarded by comparison

[Anonymous No.16670232]

[Anonymous No.16670292]

>>16669478
Socks are not in a bubble. Anons saying so are just FUDders and literal retards. Look where you are nigger, you really plan to get stock advice from here? Delete SYS32 and get it over with because that is where you are being led to.

[Anonymous No.16670419]

>>16665163
>Large players open a spread, increment it up throughout the day, and close higher at will
Our solution is obvious. Just detect assets with a suddenly large spread. As the price rises on heavy volume, free ride that shit.

[Anonymous No.16670429]

>>16670014
>Nothing happens overnight
At least not at your place

>>16670152
>take you seriously
on /biz/ u bich

[Anonymous No.16670748]

>>16669600
If you say so wagecuck. Worked fine for me, but then again I'm not fucking retarded so you have that against you.

[Anonymous No.16670861]

>>16665163
This is how statistics are used and interpreted incorrectly. Op - do you yourself know what it means? This is not a news or manipulation.

First, since 1990s the correlation between the world indices has increased significantly. So overnight when Asian markets go up, US markets tend to open higher. Similarly, if US markets close higher, the next day European and Asian markets open higher. This is normal. (During the market open phase - there is something called 'price discovery')

Secondly, equity markets have returned an average of 10% p.a. for last 40-50 years. The blue line in the pic also compares Friday close vs Monday open..which is obviously not the right comparison because so many world events can and do during the weekend when the markets are closed. Similarly, markets before and after bank holidays cannot be compared.

Your pic is prime example of garbage in garbage out.

[Anonymous No.16670870]

>>16670861
explain China

[Anonymous No.16670895]

>>16670870
Also, less flippantly, I'd sincerely love your opinion on why overnight gains somewhere like the US are so much better (less bad) than India

[Anonymous No.16670905]

>>16670895
meant for >>16670861

[Anonymous No.16670909]

>>16670870
Review the Hong Kong Shanghai index - you will get the same results.

Explain why are you dumbass and talking like a 10 yr old?

[Anonymous No.16670964]

>>16670895
"Overnight gains" is not a strategy anyone uses anywhere. There is something called "gap risk" which firms manage. Inefficient or illiquid markets tend to have more gap risk. No idea whats happening in India.

The only thing the charts prove is that we need to have 24 hour markets. Crypto is ahead in that game.

[Anonymous No.16670988]

>>16670861
Why does it go down intraday?

[Anonymous No.16671343]

>>16665163
Bumping because it's a proper thread

[Anonymous No.16671353]

>>16665163
Imagine schizoposting on /biz/. Your understanding of the stock market is on par with niggers, let that sink in.

[Anonymous No.16671377]

>>16670861
No it’s not. If the data really says the above then there is actual fuckery going on

>t. Math grad student

[Anonymous No.16671413]

>>16665163
>hurr durr muuh wealth inequality
>rich people bad
goddamn i hate these academic jews.

[Anonymous No.16671422]

>>16671413
(((Bruce Knuteson)))

[Anonymous No.16671436]

>>16671422
>why yes, I am published in peer reviewed journals

You’re such a seething cuck lmao how many threads are you in on /biz/ right now? Why are you so upset? You didn’t actually lose money this year, did you?

[Anonymous No.16671445]

>>16671436
i've been here longer than you nigger

[Anonymous No.16671641]

>>16671413
>>16671422

I was in academia for a short while. Was surrounded by these types of Jews, and goyim who fell for the tricks.

"All of the wealth for me (and my family) and none for thee."

This is how lefty Jews from highly educated well off families think. Don't know how the fuck they can live with the cognitive dissonance and do all of the mental gymnastics they have to do to "stay consistent" so to speak.

Anyhow, the rule of thumb is to not listen to academics. They are all bitter and self-loathing. Remember that those who can't do, teach.

t. Conservative capitalist Jew. Trump 2020. More stonk gains now.

[Anonymous No.16671746]

Have a bump faggots. Keep this going until tomorrow morning after I have my coffee and ready to sperg.

[Anonymous No.16671811]

>>16671445
>y-you're too new to understand
what a fucking fag you are...
>>16671641
He's got all the economic tailwinds you could possibly want, if he manages to fuck this election up it'll be one of the greatest election fuckups of all time... He'd have to do a Dean Scream
>the rule of thumb is to not listen to academics. They are all bitter and self-loathing. Remember that those who can't do, teach
I like this but there's definitely things to learn from them. Their methods are often sound, while their conclusions are disconnected.

VTSAX
Stack
it
up

[Anonymous No.16671838]

>>16665167
>>16665163

how does this indicate manipulation? seems to me that it just proves that the majority of profits are from day-trading and scalping

[Anonymous No.16671923]

>>16669401
CRYPTO

What fucking board are you on right this very second?

[Anonymous No.16672119]

>>16670861
based
>>16671377
t. post-doc, enlighten me on your interpretation

[Anonymous No.16672923]

>>16670909
BS. Shanghai is the SSE index mentioned in the paper as the outlier. Post data or kys

[Anonymous No.16673133]

up

[Anonymous No.16673144]

>>16667774
you buy minutes after market opens, if you buy before it opens then you'll make it really obvious that youre criminally manipulating the market

[Anonymous No.16673147]

>>16667853
youre retarded. you need a portfolio of at least 1 bil if not way more to exploit this. have fun losing money pleb

[Anonymous No.16673165]

>>16669411
this

[Anonymous No.16673414]

assuming for the sake of argument that this isn't evidence of manipulation, is there any reason to hold stocks during the day? would the fees associated with buying in and out each evening/morning make holding overnight only not financially feasible?

[Anonymous No.16674353]

bump

[Anonymous No.16674372]

Intraday action is heavily limited by call selling but you still get the full downside potential. Therefore the accumulated intraday charts are not that fancy looking. Doesn't see to be such a big problem pm/ah.

[Anonymous No.16674759]

>>16665163
Who's doing it?

[Anonymous No.16674796]

So someone who buys and sells and index every single days makes less money than someone who holds long term?
Well no shit. But you day trading, market timing retards insist it's it's the opposite.