/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.15190478]

Can we win in economic warfare against China?

[Anonymous No.15190489]

>>15190478
Is that a real question?

[Anonymous No.15190502]

>>15190489
I honestly have no idea what direction you're coming from.

[Anonymous No.15190523]

>>15190478
Maybe if someone other than trump was calling the shots

[Anonymous No.15190527]

>>15190478
yes. but in my opinion it would be a Pyrrhic victory. i think the losses accrued in the economic war will very well outweigh any potential benefits.

[Anonymous No.15190601]

>>15190478

China is a paper tiger. They are dependent on us demand for economic development. It is easier to replace supply than demand in todays world.

[Anonymous No.15190643]

>>15190478
Build up domestic production and then call your navy home. Watch the world burn as noone is able to protect the shipping lanes.

[Anonymous No.15190662]

We already have. The yuan is about to collapse and nothing can stop it.

[Anonymous No.15190665]

>>15190643
nobodies going to give a shit about piracy, it's such a small problem that private security forces would be more economical and sufficient than spending hundreds of billions on ships.

[Anonymous No.15190680]

>>15190643
to add, the only reason why the whole 'protect the shipping lanes' meme exists is because the navy hasn't done shit to justify their price tag for the last 70 years.

[Anonymous No.15190903]

>>15190601
This. We could ve without China but without us they're dead. Fuck they would be stone age motherfuckers. Chinks are fucking stupid as well because they're dumb fucking communists.

[Anonymous No.15190954]

no you can't. China has huge reserves, China is autarkic and produces everything they need. USA depends on debt and imports. China isn't a democracy, even if their exporters are hurting they can't really do anything, in USA when corporations start hurting from tariffs their lobbyists are gonna chimp out to their republican reps and they are gonna put Trump in his place

[Anonymous No.15190986]

Trump already won. China lied about its numbers and currency, it's time for them to experience a crash like we had in 2008.

[Anonymous No.15190993]

>>15190478
we grow all the food.
china has a reputation for starving.
nobody really needs cheap plastic junk, we just want it.
but we all have to eat.

[Anonymous No.15191023]

>>15190993
only that China is the biggest food producer in the world

[Anonymous No.15191160]

>>15190478
everything trump has done so far is in preparation for economic (and maybe real) warfare.

closing border to mexico
lower taxes to prop up domestic companies
getting the ducks (allies) in row (2% of gdp, car tax)

that's why i knew all the time there would be no deal, whenever the chinks give up a position he just asks for more.

[Anonymous No.15191487]

>>15190478
haha, what a great photo

[Anonymous No.15191637]

>>15190954
>produces everything they need

Yeah, except oil, food, iron and a bunch of other shit that they need to import in increasing volumes to prop up their farce economy. This is a problem the China because no one trusts the chinese enough to accept their monopoly money and since their current account surplus is dwindling by the minute, they're desperately scrambling to get their hands on more dollars.

Couple that with the fact that they're about run a twin deficit due to their current account going to shit and foreign investment drying up, you only need to look at countries like Turkey or Argentina to see what the outcome will be. They won't be able to stimulate their way out of it this time like they did in 2016.

[Anonymous No.15191665]

>>15190527
it has to be done economic dominance begets cultural fominance and chinks would turn this planet to a living hell

[Anonymous No.15191667]

>>15190954
>produces everything they need
>debt-to-gdp of > 300%

[Anonymous No.15191708]

>>15190986
China lying about their currency was a huge win for china.
They purposefully reduced the value of their currency to make their goods even cheaper abroad. Thus keeping exporters happy and making life for american exporters much harder because the competition just slashed prices.
Trump can increase tariffs as much as he wants but it will only make the Chinese devalue their currency even more.
Who knows who will buckle first.

[Anonymous No.15191716]

>>15191637
>except food
China is the biggest food producer in the world
>except iron
China is the third biggest iron producer in the world, 10 times more production than USA
>oil
China imports most of their oil from Russia and Iran, less than 3% import comes from USA
>>15191667
>>15191637
China has less than 20% debt to GDP ratio, compared to almost 100% debt for USA

[Anonymous No.15191726]

We already won. Now it's just a matter of how long until China realizes it.

[Anonymous No.15191728]

God I hope not. The West needs a collapse and soon. China will follow soon after if we do anyway.

[Anonymous No.15191755]

>>15190478
They would have to invade Siberia and seize all of Indonesia if the Angloshere ever united against China.

[Anonymous No.15191770]

>>15191726
I wouldn't be so sure if I were you.

[Anonymous No.15191773]

only short term

[Anonymous No.15191805]

>>15191716
>food imports 2017: 54 Billion
>Crude: 145 Billion
>Iron: 59 Billion
>Copper: 25 Billion

Pic related, it's the 2017 imports.

Where they source it from is irrelevant, the point is that practically all imports are sourced through dollars, not Renminbi and since their current account surplus is going to enter negative territory within a year or two, they're basically fucked. Again, just look at ANY other country that has run a twin deficit and look at the outcome.

>but this time it's different!

kek

[Anonymous No.15191814]

The whole world economy is going down in flames.

[Anonymous No.15191827]

>>15191814
How much you think stock market is going down come Monday?

[Anonymous No.15191833]

>>15191726
delusional burger

[Anonymous No.15191838]

>>15191805
USA has the largest trade deficit in the world. China has one of the largest trade surpluses in the world
Combine that with the fact that USA has 5 times bigger debt per gdp ratio than China

>bb-b-ut this time its different
lmao

[Anonymous No.15191857]

>>15191838
So what do you expect monday?

[Anonymous No.15191863]

>>15190478
Nope. On pure economics warfare, yes 100%. But the problem is that Trump might be out in a year or will guaranteed be out in ~5 years from now. Meanwhile the chinese commie party will rule forever without bureaucrats and shit.
Good luck beating that when the other party in the US will do whatever they can to strengthen China with free and open trade.

[Anonymous No.15191865]

>>15191716
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-16/china-s-debt-growth-keeps-marching-on-as-economy-loses-pace
http://archive.is/USeFd
sorry, meant total debt-to-gdp, or whatever's the correct economic terminology. It's pretty fuzzy with China where to draw the line

[Anonymous No.15191869]

>>15191838
I'm talking about China, why do you keep sperging about the US? All my points are true and backed by facts, I never made any claims about the US economy in the first place.

[Anonymous No.15191872]

>>15191827
I'll be alright until basically every OECD country has naught interest rates. Then shit'll hit the fan.

[Anonymous No.15191885]

>>15190665
>nobodies going to give a shit about piracy, it's such a small problem
For the entire history of human sailing, this statement has only been true for the last 75 years of U.S. naval control.

[Anonymous No.15191910]

>>15191869
read the OP brainlet. this is about USA vs China
>>15191865
total debt is meaningless, only public debt of government matters. Luxembourg has a 6000% external debt too

[Anonymous No.15191911]

>>15190643
>Build up domestic production
Take shitty trinket manufacturing away from China. Relocate foreign production to Mexico, Guatemala, and whatever shithole countries are feeding immigrants into our country.
>Here.
>Here are some jobs and some factories. Work these jobs. Quit walking to America.
>No need to thank us for all the new shiny manufacturing jobs.
>We're taking a portion of your trading profits and using it to build the wall.

[Anonymous No.15191923]

>>15190903
>without us they're dead
They'd literally starve without American food.

[Anonymous No.15191934]

>>15191869
Isn't the debate 50% about america?
If you're talking about who is going to win then you have to talk about both sides.

[Anonymous No.15191937]

>>15191923
>the biggest food producer in the world would starve
peak of amerimutt intelligence

[Anonymous No.15191941]

>>15191923
They cut off all basedbean imports last week. They will starve and they will take it like glorious communista, comrade.

[Anonymous No.15191946]

>>15191872
Timeframe?

[Anonymous No.15191957]

>>15191946
Soon brother, soon.

[Anonymous No.15191960]

>>15190954
>China is autarkic and produces everything they need. USA depends on debt and imports.
You got that one backward kiddo. The U.S. can completely shut it's doors to the rest of the world, circle the navy around the shores and tell the rest of the world to completely fuck off.
We could literally ghost the entire world, shoot down any plane or boat that comes near us, and be just fine.
Without trade, China will have mass famine and power shortages. Riots in the streets and possibly a civil war that could disrupt all of SE Asia.

[Anonymous No.15191972]

>>15191960
lmao. USA has the biggest trade deficit in the world. If you shut your doors you would collapse the next day

[Anonymous No.15191977]

>>15191957
Uggh barely got started with stocks and a recession/depression is around the corner. Probably have to pull out of certain stocks asap the moment it seems obvious.

[Anonymous No.15191983]

>>15191977
haha nar not that soon. Fuck knows when or even if it'll happen.

[Anonymous No.15192002]

>>15191983
Lol i know but certain indicators suggest it's near.

[Anonymous No.15192005]

>>15191911
Surprise, they're not actually coming to America for the jobs themselves.

[Anonymous No.15192014]

>>15191716
>China has less than 20% debt to GDP ratio, compared to almost 100% debt for USA
Not in the same boat. The U.S. swings the big dick. Our debt is really a Darth Vader money scheme where we make Saudi Arabia buy our debt in exchange for not invading and taking the oil. Because it's really our oil.
The U.S. debt subsidizes the entire global economy. Saudi Arabia can't actually collect in any way other than how we say they collect. And if they ever question that, we send the military over and cancel the debt. Therefore, it's not real debt.
China's debt is actually debt. They actually have to pay it. They can't pass it down to Saudi Arabia and tell them to shut the fuck up or they'll invade and steal the oil.

[Anonymous No.15192017]

>>15191960
Imagine actually believing this

[Anonymous No.15192031]

>>15191838
>USA has 5 times bigger debt per gdp ratio than China
>>bb-b-ut this time its different
>lmao
You left out that part about all the aircraft carriers we bought with the money we borrow from Saudi Arabia.

[Anonymous No.15192041]

>>15192014
they only way you can pay it is by devaluing dollar, which makes your trade deficit even worse. good luck keeping that forever

>>15192031
and whatcha gonna do with them? invade China? USA couldn't even beat a 20 million goat shepherds with AKs in middle east and you think you have a chance against China? lmao

[Anonymous No.15192042]

Why doesnt Trump just decalre war on china so we can kill all these Chinks and chink lovers

[Anonymous No.15192051]

>>15191937
>peak of amerimutt intelligence
It's possible to be the biggest food producer, and still not produce enough food if you're also one of the largest population bases, which is explains the huge food imports from the U.S.
>Always a little satisfying chuckle when a filthy foreigner dares to question American intellect.

[Anonymous No.15192059]

>>15192051
ever heard of luxury food dumbass? even if they produce all the feed they need to survive middle class and rich people still want imported luxury food which is what most of their food imports are. The reality is China basically feeds half the world with their food production

[Anonymous No.15192063]

>>15191972
>lmao. USA has the biggest trade deficit in the world. If you shut your doors you would collapse the next day
That's because we want a trade deficit, and we have the big dick military and we can negotiate trade deals however we want.
It's not at all because we need to trade; and that's exactly the lesson that President Trump is teaching the rest of the world right now.

[Anonymous No.15192070]

>>15192005
>Surprise, they're not actually coming to America for the jobs themselves.
That's why we're going to assess a portion of their newfound profits that we gave them and use it to fund a wall.

[Anonymous No.15192074]

>>15192063
>we negotiate trade deals
lmao no. Republicans are against tariffs, democrats are against tariffs, libertarians are against tariffs. Only Trump wants tariffs, China doesn't give a fuck about him, they just wait for him to leave office. China plays the long con and you already lost pal

[Anonymous No.15192089]

>>15192017
>Imagine actually believing this
I actually believe that. Grown ass man in America. We all believe this. Our president believes this. And you can't tell me how it's not true. Just cope that you wish it weren't.
It's only been true for the last few years. But shale tech and fracking has completely changed the game. The U.S. literally does not need any foreign trade. We just like it. Don't need it.

[Anonymous No.15192115]

>>15192041
>and whatcha gonna do with them?
Whatever we want. Like we have for the last 75 years. That's what the Silver Back does.

>>15192041
>USA couldn't even beat a 20 million goat shepherds with AKs in middle east and you think you have a chance against China?
The U.S. could win a war with China however quickly they wanted. Just depends on how much rubble they want to leave behind. I don't know how ignorant to reality I'd have to be to think otherwise.

[Anonymous No.15192122]

>>15192059
Now all the shitty gmo highfructose corn syrup amerimut food is luxury.

[Anonymous No.15192128]

Europe needs to join the trade war against China. Then they're truly be done for and you'd see the whole communist party crumble.

[Anonymous No.15192142]

>>15192115
yes amerimutt, you couldn't even beat a bunch of goat shepherds and rice farmers, but you can win against a billion chinese with nukes. You are watching too many hollywood movies

[Anonymous No.15192145]

>>15192115
hyfr

[Anonymous No.15192152]

>>15192142
We're playing with the handicap we give ourselves, friend.

[Anonymous No.15192153]

>>15192074
Trump's whole platform was renegotiating bad trade deals and the American people elected him. They'll elect him again in 2020 on the same platform. The same people vote for the Republicans and the Democrats, and the Libertarians haven't ever elected anyone to higher office than Governor of Nevada.

[Anonymous No.15192155]

Ray Dalio (one of the most succesful traders in human history) > anon (you).

https://principles.us13.list-manage.com/track/click?u=f817138263fa3d3dec4ad231d&id=d686a60cd2&e=770c533542

[Anonymous No.15192163]

>>15192153
and if he gets elected again they wait 4 more years. China is one party state, they can wait as long as they want

[Anonymous No.15192189]

>>15192142
The Vietnam War was a proxy battle in the greater Cold War with the Soviet Union, which the U.S. won.
It's my honest opinion that our defense strategists don't even consider China a viable military threat. I also think that China themselves don't think they're a viable military threat to the U.S.

[Anonymous No.15192207]

>>15192163
Wait for what? To see if the next president comes in and mercifully changes the deal for them? Hardly a position of power.

[Anonymous No.15192225]

>>15192189
a war between China and USA means both countries will collapse. The difference is China has cultural and racial unity, even if they collapse they will come back. USA on the other hand if they collapse its game over. You will be overrun by religious and racial wars and become balkanized

>>15192207
everyone but Trump is against tariffs. The moment he leaves office tariffs are gone

[Anonymous No.15192376]

>>15190903
>china
>communist

based and muttpilled

[Anonymous No.15192388]

>>15190502
This haha, no one fucking knows mate, most likely it's just a fucking game to steal more money from the plebs, the (((move makers))) are the only ones to profit off of this

[Anonymous No.15192405]

>>15190478
In the short term the US can do some damage. Long term the answer is no. The chinese are a homogenous ethnostate with lower time preference. The only thing keeping americans from killing each other are debt funded giveaways

[Anonymous No.15192419]

>>15192042
because most people think China dindu nuffin

[Anonymous No.15192427]

>>15192405
China is far weaker than they let show. Their current form of government was never going to last anyway, it was always going to crumble at some point after their elites have looted the country. Trump is just accelerating their downfall.

[Anonymous No.15192483]

>>15192225
Warren has actually said that tariffs are a legitimate way to get shit done in the trade war, but she paints it as a "get back at the big corporations" thing.

If we were to take all the best parts of the politicians, we could make one good candidate. But individually all of them, whichever party, are terrible.

[Anonymous No.15192685]

>>15192225
>The difference is China has cultural and racial unity, even if they collapse they will come back.
This is not true though. China wants to believe and enforce that it has cultural and racial unity. The closer you look at it, the less this is true in reality, and you can perceive all kinds of ethnic differences and divisions. It's just one type of strategy - to homogenize and create conformity to an inspirational national identity. The United States of America has chosen a different strategy similar to the ones used in the British, European, Roman tradition of dividing and conquering. Hence "diversity is our strength" and so on.

The real story about Chinese demographics is not ethnicity. It's age. It's fairly likely that the Chinese will grow old before they grow rich, and the one child policy will undermine any opportunity they had to be a superpower. Most likely they will go the way of Japan in the 80s. There was a lot of hullabaloo about the Japanese buying up the world and charts extrapolated growth out to forever. Turns out you need to have a growing population of working age people, technical talent, and so on.

I would not make a bet on homogeneity if I were you guys. By comparison - even though it has its own problems - the story of the United States is one of openness to immigration and generally more competent and responsive demographic management. You can't just wave a wand and force people to make babies, and the Chinese will learn that the hard way. Even if you dislike the effects of the South American influx in particular, culturally speaking they at least come from a European legacy in the Americas and will easily fit into American society over time. Similarly, immigration from countries like India is a cultural legacy of the British Empire and gives America talent and advantages it wouldn't otherwise have. Don't let dumb leftist zealotry and conformity blind you to the reality of these issues.

[Anonymous No.15192734]

>>15192685
>diversity is strength

[Anonymous No.15192842]

>>15191716
The problem with Chinese debt is, a lot of the companies are government owned. If they do catch a breeze and start having financial problems, the government will have to bail them out. Essentially, their corporate debt is government debt. No one expects the entire corporate debt to shift to the latter, but it's still huge GDP wise. Then there are government guarantees that you need to worry about, but I'm not sure what the state of those is.

[Anonymous No.15193045]

>>15190662
This..
Short yuan like there is no tomorrow..

>>15191910
>total debt is meaningless, only public debt of government matters
Lol.. No...

A massive segment of the Chinese economy runs on that debt.
It's state owned banks that loan to state owned corporations that create make-work jobs.
And they build ghost cities and high-speed rail that needs more subsidies to keep running.

If the corporations can't pay their loans they default and the banks will go bust.
People lose their jobs and people that deposited money in the banks lose savings..
Confidence would drop, people try to sell their house to recoup money..
And so the mother of all housing bubbles goes pop...

China has no real option but to bailout the banks out with more yuan..
They basically got through 2008 with debt steroids and now they're gonna pay for it..

The banks are already dying..
See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-bBjF424gU

[Anonymous No.15193744]

>>15190478
We are winning:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vW1smMuoQ_o

[Anonymous No.15193908]

China doesn't need a army to fight the US.
There are over 200 million armed civilian plebs within the US, it's a ticking timebomb.
It's hard to main civil unrest when your president is incompetent.

H1B/O1B visa.
America owes their prosperity to the H1B/O1B geniusses..
Science still is the engine of Prosperity.
The average native born america is a sub-IQ semi retard.
The average Chinese is ranked among the smartest people on the planet.

[Anonymous No.15194144]

>Option 1
China keeps devaluing its currency to keep exporting to the wests declining consumer base. This will result in civil war in china
>Option 2
China dumps its US bonds. This will result in a civil war in china

Either way, China loses