How long till link breaks $1?

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Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:17:30 2018 No.12263269 [Reply] [Original]

How long till link breaks $1?

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:19:37 2018 No.12263282 Never

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:21:40 2018 No.12263292 >>12263269 much more pertinent question would be how long before it goes to $0? Couple of months at the most

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:27:52 2018 No.12263338 >>12263269 1/3

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:30:44 2018 No.12263359 >>12263269 100%

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:31:32 2018 No.12263361 >>12263338 50%.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:36:47 2018 No.12263391

>>12263269
Oddly the answer is 50%

The highly unlikely event is picking the single spwck of gold dust from thr second box, however, since that is stated as a given in the problem then the odds are 50/50. The only non possibility is the box on the right.

Although it might be 1/3 i forget how that stupid door goat oroblem worked

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:38:32 2018 No.12263398 >>12263391 Please never procreate.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:39:43 2018 No.12263407 >>12263269 the answer is: y=number of reachable silver dust in the mixed box x=1/2 + 1/y if y approaches infinity which can be the case, depending on the size of the specks and box size then x=1/2

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:41:48 2018 No.12263413 >>12263338 We have a real special boy here, and with a nice ID to match!

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:42:28 2018 No.12263418 >>12263269 almost 100%

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:42:52 2018 No.12263420 >given that you chose a gold speck this means its only two boxes you might have picked. so 50% the given is a certain event. if you want to separate it in two events its 1*1/2=1/2

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:43:25 2018 No.12263422 >>12263269 the answer is: y = number of reachable silve specks in the mixed box x = 1/2 + 1/y considering y approaches inifiity, depending on the speck size and box size then x = 1/2

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:43:40 2018 No.12263423 >>12263338 >>12263361 >>12263391 Ladies and gentlemen: biz

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:44:22 2018 No.12263427

>>12263398
That's mathematics son.

>durrrrr but that's not the intuitive answer! It feels wrong if you're not paying attention!

THE PROBABILITY OF PICKING THE SINGLE GRAIN OF GOLD FROM THE SILVER BOX IS IRRELEVANT BECAUSE IT'S GIVEN AS PART OF THE P R O B L E M

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:45:26 2018 No.12263430 >>12263422 actually sorry, i see it says you chose a spec at random, then the answer is x approaches 100% since the probability of choosing a gold spec from mixedbox is infinitely small therefore it's box 1 for sure

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:45:54 2018 No.12263433 >>12263427 don't worry, dont feel bad about being wrong. you probably just didn't read the question properly.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:46:53 2018 No.12263438 >>12263427 you role two dices, both comes up as 6s, what is the probability of that happening? THE PROBABILITY OF ROLLING 6S IS IRRELEVANT BECAUSE IT'S GIVEN AS PART OF THE P R O B L E M

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:48:42 2018 No.12263442 >>12263433 The "random box and random speck" language is meant to confuse you into thinking it's part of the problem even though it is not. You are dumb and bad at reading comprehension.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:49:45 2018 No.12263448 >>12263438 >given that you chose a gold speck >GIVEN >G I V E N "Given that you roll two sixes, what are the chances that you roll two sixes?"

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:49:51 2018 No.12263450

>>12263420
>>12263427

This is either bait or you guys are in high school. Eventually you’ll learn that isn’t how probability works, it’s like people who say “the odds of winning the lottery are 50:50, you either win or you don’t” which is a similar but different fallacy.

The fact that it is given that you have already taken a speck is totally irrelevant, statistical models are meant to represent reality, in reality there is no supreme deity conferring something as being a “given”, there are a billion scenarios of the gold coming from the first box and a single scenario of it coming from the second box.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:51:42 2018 No.12263459 >>12263448 alright, if you are going to call me dumb, i'm going to belittle your intelligence for being wrong then.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:53:15 2018 No.12263470

>>12263427
>That's mathematics son.
Kill yourself. Your reasoning has absolutely no mathematical rigor.

If you wanna go full mathematical, then you have to start from the set of elementary events - which are particular specks of dust picked. Since you pick the box at random and pick a speck at random, the chance of picking any particular speck from any box is equal, more precisely 1/(3*N), where N is the number of dust specks in each box (assuming all three have the same number of specks).

There are N specks of dust in the first box for which the rest of the box would be gold, and only 1 speck of dust for which it would not.
So the probability of the rest of the box being gold is N/(N+1). As the number of dust specks approaches infinity, the probability approaches 1 = 100%.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:53:22 2018 No.12263472 This is the ultimate turing test. Ais and autists answer correctly, most people answer 50% or some weird answer like 1/3. It's fine in the end, because autists prefer ais to humans anyway.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:53:38 2018 No.12263475 >>12263442 alright, if you are going to call me dumb, i'm going to belittle your intelligence for being wrong then. i know that it makes no sense whether it says at random or not.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:53:51 2018 No.12263477

>>12263450
>The fact that it is given that you have already taken a speck is totally irrelevant,
No it is not, because it excludes the 99999/100000 probabilities where you chose a silver speck from the middle box.

Please go to your local community college and take a mathematics course

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:54:16 2018 No.12263479 >>12263269 EOY 2019 if we break bear.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:54:32 2018 No.12263482 >>12263442 alright, if you are going to call me dumb, i'm going to belittle your intelligence for being wrong then. i know that it makes no difference whether it says at random or not.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:55:36 2018 No.12263488

>>12263470
>ince you pick the box at random and pick a speck at random, the chance of picking any particular speck from any box is
Irrelevant, because it is GUARANTEED THAT YOU PICKED A GOLD SPECK FROM AN UNSPECIFIED BOX. THAT ALREADY PRECLUDES EVERY POSSIBILITY THAT YOU PICKED A SILVER SPECK HOLY SHIT YOU ARE DUMB

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:57:38 2018 No.12263495

There are billions on gold specks in the first box, and one speck in the second box.

If you see these gold specks as one single set of specks, what are your odds of drawing the single speck that belongs to the second box? What are the odds you draw one that belongs to the first box?

The answer is: the odds are 99.99999999% it belongs to the first box, so you can be 99.99999999% sure the rest of the box is also gold.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:57:40 2018 No.12263496

>>12263450
lmao.

Given is one thing
If is another

a)If you chose a gold speck, what is the probability that the rest of the box is gold
b)Given you chose a gold speck, what is the probability that the rest of the box is gold
Two different questions, two different answers.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:58:46 2018 No.12263499 >>12263482 So you agree that the probability of the first event is irrelevant because it has already happened, yet you insist that it still affects the probability because...?

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 05:58:52 2018 No.12263500

>>12263448
Try and visualize the problem; imaging you have three boxes in front of you, and you reach down into one of them and take up a Gold speck.
What is the odds that the rest of the box is filled with gold?

If your answer is still 50/50, then imagine repeating the "experiment" a 100 times, would you still argue that 50% of the times you pull up a gold speck the box is filled with silver?

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 06:00:23 2018 No.12263508 >>12263499 i don't think it still affects the probability. you can just completely ignore the writing on the top and the answer is just below 100%.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 06:02:41 2018 No.12263514

To return to the dicerolling metaphor, consider:

"You randomly roll two random 1d6 dice, randomly. The first die comes up 6. What are the chances you roll two sixes?" The answer is 1 in 6, even though the odds of rolling two sixes is 1 in 36, because the first event has already happened, and is given as part of the problem.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 06:04:06 2018 No.12263520 >>12263508 It seems like you're factoring in the probability of you picking the gold speck from the second box. Again, this remote probability is irrelevant to the problem.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 06:04:55 2018 No.12263526 >>12263495 This and the guys saying almost 100% You have to be retarded to come to any other conclusion

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 06:06:32 2018 No.12263532 >>12263520 okay well the answer is merely 100% then which you for some reason don't agree with.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 06:09:00 2018 No.12263541

>>12263514
This is a bad analogy because anon is saying for the given event to occur then that would necessarily preclude a lot of other possibilities.

If I pulled a gold speck then I could not have possibly picked from box three.

Anyway, I'm a brainlet biz major so carry on.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 06:10:43 2018 No.12263546

>>12263520
You have three boxes, if you reach down into one of the boxes at random and pull out a speck - the odds of that speck being gold is around 1/3.
Now the problem state that this is the scenario, that you have pulled out a speck of gold.
That is what is given, it is removing the times where you pull out a silver speck.

In this case (which is the stated problem) what is the odds of the rest of the box being filled with gold?
Again try and play it out in your head, where you repeat the procedure again and again. Would you expect that 50% of the times you pull out a gold speck, that the rest of the box is filled with Silver?

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 06:11:17 2018 No.12263547 >>12263532 >insist that you're right repeatedly without any arguments or refutation Burger education

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 06:12:58 2018 No.12263553 >>12263269 Why the fuck is this an argument good fucking god Its 50% you fucking idiots christ

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 06:14:52 2018 No.12263565 >>12263547 hint: read the question 3 more times. slowly.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 06:15:14 2018 No.12263567

>>12263526
The number of gold specks in each box is irrelevant at the start of the experiment.

In this scenario it is implied that if you reached into the box with only one gold spec as opposed to the one with a million you are guaranteed to grab that one spec. That's how the question begins there is absolutely no reality where you reach in and get anything other than gold before the question begins.

It literally confirms nothing if you reach in and get a gold spec the likelihood that the rest of the box is gold or silver is exactly the same.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 06:17:05 2018 No.12263573 >>12263553 Brainlet here but I'm beginning to think the answer might be closer to 100%

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 06:17:14 2018 No.12263574 File: 81 KB, 1024x899, 1545386974623.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>12263553 see my fucking dissertation on this problem.. >>12263500 >>12263546

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 06:19:34 2018 No.12263582 >>12263546 Yes. It is the same if you reduce the problem to two specks in each box.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 06:20:45 2018 No.12263591 Nearly 50%, but weighed slightly in the favor of silver boxes (added chance is 1/N, N=number of silver specks in that particular silver box with 1 gold speck).

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 06:22:39 2018 No.12263597 >>12263591 Sorry, I don't proofread my posts. It's nearly 100% chance, not 50% (and is far from 1/3).

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 06:27:13 2018 No.12263607 4chan math threads are the fucking best

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 06:30:29 2018 No.12263617

>>12263567
>>12263582
Imagine that you go into a funfair, and I am standing there as a Carny with three see-through boxes, so you can see that there is gold and dirt specks in them, like there is in the picture (I've just replaced the Silver specks with dirt specks).
I put a blanket over them and shuffle them around, and ask you to pick one of the boxes and take out a speck.
You do this, and the speck is gold.

I then offer you to buy the two other boxes with the stated value that there is a 50% chance that one of the boxes contains 100% gold specks.

Would you accept the transaction?

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 06:42:20 2018 No.12263664

>>12263269
You choose a box with a golden speck
you pick a "random" speck and it's gold (this is not chance driven).
A single golden speck from goldbox has the same chance of being picked as the single golden speck in silverbox. The only choice you made is to choose between two boxes ergo the possibility that the rest of the box is gold is 50%

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 06:45:52 2018 No.12263682 >>12263617 You're shoe horning in a third box in your hypothetical to fuck with us. It is unequivocal to the OP.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 06:52:12 2018 No.12263710 >>12263664 > A single golden speck from goldbox has the same chance of being picked as the single golden speck in silverbox. No. The odds are nearly the opposite.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 06:54:43 2018 No.12263724 I suddenly understand all the biz threads about not being able to get a job

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 06:57:09 2018 No.12263742

>>12263682
okay.. then try and imagine this: you are so retarded that you are no longer considered human, but instead a squirrel - a retarded squirrel.
..and you have an acorn, and i give you an acorn, how many acorns does you (the retarded squirrel) have?

If this is to difficult to conceptualize for your little mind.. imagine this, you are so stupid, that nothing i say makes any sense, and nothing anyone says to you make sense, instead you live in your own little retarded world, where nothing make sense either.. What is the odds of you being a fucking retarded, given the fact that you are retarded !?

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 07:01:27 2018 No.12263763 99%+

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 07:06:59 2018 No.12263792 Guys. I need to know when will link breach $1

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 07:08:26 2018 No.12263800 >>12263710 Every single speck has the same. Ofc that does not nean odds of getting a gold speck are the same. Pretty sure the other guy is trolling desu.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 07:08:59 2018 No.12263805 >>12263391 kek

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 07:14:53 2018 No.12263843 Riddle anon here. 2/2. ea ls ut in al ce.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 07:46:20 2018 No.12264026 Again brainlet here, but Google helped me out a bit. Look up bertrands paradox on wiki and then bayes theorem on mathematics stack exchange.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 07:48:04 2018 No.12264036 >>12263792 again, Q4 2019, if you're lucky.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 07:49:44 2018 No.12264048 >>12263269 99.9(..)9%

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 08:12:09 2018 No.12264166 >>12264026 >Again brainlet here we know this, we can read you post..

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 08:14:18 2018 No.12264172 3 years if we are lucky. I am a linkmarine too. sadly this is the truth anon. crypto is over for a while.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 08:20:05 2018 No.12264198 >>12263391 what the fuck are you talking about?

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 08:20:25 2018 No.12264200 >>12263477 >No it is not, because it excludes the 99999/100000 probabilities where you chose a silver speck from the middle box. Bingo

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 08:25:38 2018 No.12264241 >>12264200 watch?v=CGMc8B60ZpU

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 08:26:28 2018 No.12264245 >>12263269 99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999%

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 08:28:19 2018 No.12264260 >>12264241 Read the question in the OP again. Slowly. Then read it another time. Focus on "G I V E N"

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 08:46:23 2018 No.12264359 0% The boxes are make of black lines, not gold.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 08:52:53 2018 No.12264405 >>12263269 half. anyone who thinks otherwise is autistic, retarded or both

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 08:53:28 2018 No.12264409 Picking a random speck of dust Given that you chose This math task is intentionally poorly worded. Picking at random and chosing are different events.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 08:55:31 2018 No.12264424

>>12263391
It bugs me that this is the only correct answer yet retarded anons keep saying it's not.

The question says "GIVEN THAT YOU CHOSE A GOLD SPECK".

GIVEN THAT
GIVEN
GIVEN
GIVEN
GIVEN

GIVEN
I
V
E
N

This immediately means you didn't stick your hand in C. So the probability that you picked box C is ZERO.

This means that you either picked box A or B. You cannot have picked C because if you had, you wouldn't have a fucking piece of gold on your hand right now! So C shouldn't even be in the calculations.

Now, in order to know which box you're fondling (A or B), you only need to know if the next particle you pick up is gold or not.

The probability of getting a gold speck next is equal to the proportion of gold specks vs total specks in the remaining boxes. REMEMBER, YOU ALREADY PICKED THE FIRST SPECK.

IT IS 1/2

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 09:11:08 2018 No.12264522 For brainlets, this is a variation of betrands box paradox with essentially infinite coins in each box instead of two coins each. The probability is basically 0.9999

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 09:16:40 2018 No.12264549 >>12263269 let 'x' be # of gold specks in 1st box probability would be x / x+1

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 09:16:50 2018 No.12264550 >>12264424 You pick a gold speck out of a box. You have to pick another one out of the same box and bet all your money on the colour it will be. What colour do you choose?

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 09:19:03 2018 No.12264565

>>12264424
If you randomly pick a speckle from one of the three boxes, there is a 1/3 chance that you have picked a gold speckle - Given that this is the case (that you have picked a gold speckle), what is the odds that the rest of the box you picked it from is the gold box.

That is what is "Given".. It is the scenario where you have picked a gold speckle at random.
you negate that the specks are picked at random.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 09:19:37 2018 No.12264567 I fucking hate all of you.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 09:20:25 2018 No.12264570 >>12264550 the ultimate brainlet friendly answer

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 09:21:52 2018 No.12264580

>>12264424
wrong, the box can only be opened in a certain way. You can never pick from the middle. This means that the probability of picking that spot on the top in the silver dust box is higher.
also we have no way of knowing how many dust particles are in each box but either way it's not an exact 50%

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 09:25:19 2018 No.12264603 >>12264424 >>12263582 for some weird mother fucking reason, you fucks are saying it's just as likely that the first speck you pick up is from the 1st box as it is from the 2nd.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 09:25:41 2018 No.12264605 >>12263617 This whole thing was a subliminal funfair shill?

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 09:41:36 2018 No.12264742 File: 45 KB, 460x480, 1542533373375.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] ITT the majority of biz reveals themselves as a bunch of pajeet shills with poor English comprehension. >given >given >given You street-shitting Thuggee.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 09:45:22 2018 No.12264762

>>12264742
That's not the mistake the wrong people in this thread are making. it's that they're saying the probability of the first gold speck they pick up being in the 1st container is equal to the probability of it being in the 2nd container. Fucks me why they are doing that, but that's exactly what they are doing.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 09:47:00 2018 No.12264773

>>12264742
but if you get a gold speck it's 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% gonna be from the one full of gold and not the one with a single gold speck

you >given fags are implying that if you pick that box you're gonna pick that particle too

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 09:47:58 2018 No.12264780 The absolute state of LINK bagholders.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 09:51:02 2018 No.12264806

>>12263664
>A single golden speck from goldbox has the same chance of being picked as the single golden speck in silverbox.
nah... it is more likely that the speck was picked from the gold box. almost 100% the next speck you pick is gold. the odds that you picked the silver box and went unlucky are not astronomical but around 1 in the million depending on grain size and box size.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 09:53:24 2018 No.12264826 >>12263269 after seeing this thread, according to link holders the probability of it going above $1 in the next 2 months is 50% (either it does or it doesn't).

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 09:58:03 2018 No.12264861 >>12264570 That's as good as I can do. Honestly done with biz now, it's clear that far from the strongest surviving the bear market, we've been left with the most deluded retards.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 09:59:05 2018 No.12264872 >>12264762 >>12264773 Oh shit, i get what your saying. Maybe i'm the pajeet. We need an anon more qualified than most to solve this.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:00:13 2018 No.12264881

Let A1 be the event that you picked the 1st box, A2 be the event you picked the 2nd box and A3 the event you picked the 3rd box, and let B be the event that the dust speck you picked from the chosen box is a gold one. The conditional probabilities are

P(B|A1) = 1, P(B|A2) = 1/N2, P(B|A3) = 0.

P(A1) = P(A2) = P(A3) = 1/3

P(B) = P(A1)*P(B|A1) + P(A2)*P(B|A2) + P(A3)*P(B|A3)
= (1/3)*1 + (1/3)*(1/N2) + (1/3)*0
= (1 + 1/N2)/3

According to Bayes' Theorem, the probability we are after is

P(A1|B) = P(A1)*P(B|A1)/P(B)
=((1/3)*1)/(1 + 1/N2)/3)
= 1/(1 + 1/N2) = N2/(N2 + 1)
= 1 - 1/(N2 + 1)

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:08:24 2018 No.12264949 Remember the euphoria last year >$1 EOY

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:12:54 2018 No.12264982 let me do a number crunch real quick... it's 33.33% (repeating of course)

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:14:45 2018 No.12264998 >>12263269 it's 50/50, right?

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:15:26 2018 No.12265005

>>12264603
exactly!

BECAUSE IT ALREADY HAPPENED!!!

You have a 100% chance of getting gold on box A, a 0.00000000000001% chance on box B, and a 0% chance on box C.

You got gold. YOU HAVE GOLD.

So what ALREADY HAPPENED is either one of these:

1) you got a speck from box A
2) you got a speck from box B

how likely is that the next speck will be gold? There are N-1 gold specks left and N silver specks left.

p=1/2.

Done. The end.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:15:43 2018 No.12265007

>>12264806
>>12263710
any single has the same odds than the single gold, as you do not even choose it
onlything that varies from case by case is which box you choose. When a box is chosen (which is 50/50), the gold speck is automaticaly picked for you. YOU DONT CHOOSE A SPECK WHICH IS N/1, YOU ONLY CHOOSE A BOX WHICH IS 1:1.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:16:45 2018 No.12265014 >>12265005 >So what ALREADY HAPPENED is either one of these: > >1) you got a speck from box A >2) you got a speck from box B but that's like saying you have a 50% chance of winning the lottery - either you win or you lose.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:20:44 2018 No.12265046

>>12265014
no, that's like saying you got the first 5 numbers of the lottery right, what's the chance you got the 6th number right too?

it's 1/10, just like it's 1/2 here because there are 2 boxes, doesn't matter the number of tickets at the beginning of the lottery thing

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:22:22 2018 No.12265060

>>12264424
but the box spec is the spec from that box.
for example box 2 is the gold spec and the silver specs can't get picked from the boxes dust. how could it then have done that if it could have not only have been picked but also the whole thing picked?
>my hand in the box
>my hand in the dust box
so easy god damn

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:23:50 2018 No.12265073 File: 62 KB, 638x1000, 1544641096443.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>12263450

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:24:51 2018 No.12265083 >>12263361 The only correct answer

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:29:51 2018 No.12265134 >>12265046 They say you got gold. The probability of getting gold from the middle box is so minuscule that 100% is a valid answer.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:30:54 2018 No.12265140 >>12265134 it's 50/50, check with your fingers

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:32:38 2018 No.12265155

>>12265007
yeah but it's like schrodinger cat you don't know which box you choose until you looked at it.
see, for you a coin toss is 50/50, for someone that knows how it will land either because he lives outside out normal timeline or just got a computer to analyze trajectory in-flight it's 100/0.

so which one is it? you have to realize probability is subjective on your knowledge. not physical happenings.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:35:43 2018 No.12265186 >>12265140 You have to calculate the probabilities of picking gold in box a vs b. That's when the problem is solved, not after. You will get a 0% chance after millions of years picking gold as a solution, 100% the rest of the time.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:36:27 2018 No.12265194

>>12265140
i can write a script that shows you how it would go, it would pick a box at random first then pick a speck at random then pick a speck again at random if it's gold. you will see the script will run forever and never give you a second silver speck. even tho once you successfully picked a gold speck from the silver container it will be a 100% chance to get a silver. it just won't happen for a very fucking long time.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:37:12 2018 No.12265201 >>12265186 it's 100% if you picked box A, it's 0% if you picked box B, average is 50%

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:39:06 2018 No.12265221

>>12265201
that's not how it works. when you pick box B you only had a 1 in a billion chance that you pick the gold speck.

it's like me having a chance to get a stroke right after i won the lottery. first i have to win the lottery so there is not much chance of this to happen.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:39:28 2018 No.12265231 >>12265201 The probability of picking gold from box B is minuscule. You can't give both boxes the same probability. The point is that you don't know from where the fuck you got the gold and that's what you have to calculate.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:40:24 2018 No.12265240 File: 1.28 MB, 612x344, giphy (5).gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] This thread is fucking gold

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:40:25 2018 No.12265241 >>12263269 It's 50% because the gold speck is already provided. It is given.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:40:26 2018 No.12265243
File: 11 KB, 789x371, xindependent-dependent-events.png.pagespeed.ic.vHRlR7Hea6.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

>>12265194
you are dropping out "worlds" that didn't match your expected result, then it's normal that it happens like that, but in the real world the events are independent, it's 50/50 one of the 2 boxes

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:41:40 2018 No.12265260 >>12265221 you are picking one of 3 boxes at random, not 1/10000000 specks at random, the fact that you find a gold speck is irrelevant, then when you pick again a box out of 2 it's a 50/50 chance

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:42:34 2018 No.12265270 >>12265243 my script would run exactly how in the _real_ world this would go. that's my point if you start doing this by hand you would get almost 100% gold after the first gold.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:42:40 2018 No.12265273 >>12265231 you are not picking gold, you are picking 1/3 boxes, and next 1/2 boxes

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:43:36 2018 No.12265282 >>12265260 >the fact that you find a gold speck is irrelevan it's not because it gives you the chance of picking box B which you don't know you picked or not.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:43:51 2018 No.12265288

>>12265270
>that's my point if you start doing this by hand you would get almost 100% gold after the first gold.
you are not picking gold, the fact that you got gold is irrelevant, you are picking 1/3 boxes, and then the speck can be anything and won't affect when you pick 1/2 boxes, just because you got gold that's an independent event and can't affect the future when you pick 1/2 boxes

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:44:54 2018 No.12265302 >>12265273 you are picking boxes that you don't know what they contain except by sampling twice. doesn't matter which one you picked your odds for the samples don't change since you have no knowledge.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:45:31 2018 No.12265306 >>12265302 exactly, it's 50/50

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:47:06 2018 No.12265328

>>12265288
no no, you got it all wrong. the picking of a box is irrelevant because you still don't know what's inside. you still don't know which box it is. the first thing you know is you got 1 speck of gold. that means you 99.999999% got box A in your hand and 0.000001% box B.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:48:03 2018 No.12265339

The right answer is 50%

Picking a golden grain excludes the third box. So from then on it's 50% chance that the next grain is also golden because the are only two boxes left and only one of them has more golden grains than one (which has already been picked).

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:48:08 2018 No.12265340 >>12265306 no it's not. because you have no certainty after the first event except for that you didn't pick C

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:49:43 2018 No.12265355 >>12265340 so are you saying it's 2/3s?

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:50:53 2018 No.12265367 >>12265355 no i'm saying you don't know shit after the first pick except that you probably got container A and maybe B.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:51:41 2018 No.12265373 >>12265367 so 50/50?

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:55:05 2018 No.12265416

>>12265373
no it would only be 50/50 if you had the same chance to pick A and B. but it's not.

okay here is the thing, i'm putting down these containers and mixing them up, then take random sample keep doing it until i get a gold speck. so we got a gold speck and now you have to bet, will the next one be gold or silver i bet $10000 it will be gold, you bet $1000 it will be silver do you take these odds?

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:57:30 2018 No.12265439 99.5%

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 10:59:44 2018 No.12265460 >biz overcomplicating a simple question Lmao fucking retards. Who /50%/ here?

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:01:34 2018 No.12265476 >>12263269 99+%

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:04:13 2018 No.12265504 >>12265416 some on people anyone wants to play this game with me? i'm eager to meet up with a fool that would bet on 50/50 real life. bring all your money!

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:05:15 2018 No.12265513 >>12265460 are you willing to bet your money on that? like for real: >>12265504 >>12265416

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:07:15 2018 No.12265533

>>12265014
I think I underdstand...you think that I'm missing something because I'm not doing the complete calculation. Let's do the complete calculation.

Let's use real numbers.

The buckets are named a,b,c. a has 100 gold specks, b has 99 silver specks and 1 gold speck, c has 100 silver specks.
G is Gold
S is Silver

x1 is the first pick
x2 is the second pick

Pa(x1=G) = 1/3 * 100/100
Pa(x1=S) = 1/3 * 0

Pb(x1=G) = 1/3 * 1/100 = 1/300
Pb(x1=S) = 1/3 * 99/100

Pc(x1=G) = 1/3 * 0
Pc(x1=S) = 1/3 * 100/100

They all add up to 1. Still good.

Pa(x1=G && x2=G)= 1/3 * 100/100 * 99/99 = 1/3
Pa(x1=G && x2=S)= 1/3 * 100/100 * 0/99 = 0
Pa(x1=S && x2=G)= 1/3 * 0 = 0
Pa(x1=S && x2=S)= 1/3 * 0 = 0

Pa_tot= 1/3

Pb(x1=G && x2=G)= 1/3 * 1/100 * 0 = 0
Pb(x1=G && x2=S)= 1/3 * 1/100 * 99/99 = 1/300
Pb(x1=S && x2=G)= 1/3 * 99/100 * 1/99
Pb(x1=S && x2=S)= 1/3 * 99/100 * 98/99

Pb_tot= 1/3

Pc(x1=G && x2=G)= 1/3 * 0
Pc(x1=G && x2=S)= 1/3 * 0
Pc(x1=S && x2=G)= 1/3 * 100/100 * 0
Pc(x1=S && x2=S)= 1/3 * 100/100 * 99/99

Pc_tot= 1/3

Pc_tot+Pb_tot+Pa_tot = 1

Now, using conditional probabilities:

Pa(x2=G|x1=G) = Pa(x1=G & x2=G)/Pa(x1=G) = (1/3)/(1/3) = 1
Pa(x2=S|x1=G) = 0

Pb(x2=G|x1=G) = Pb(x1=G & x2=G)/Pb(x1=G) = 0
Pb(x2=S|x1=G) = Pb(x1=G & x2=S)/Pb(x1=G) = (1/300)/(1/300) = 1

Pc(x2=G|x1=G) = 0
Pc(x2=S|x1=G) = 0

That's your new prob space. Those are all the conditional probabilities where x1=g.
In other words "given that the first speck is gold".

So the probability of getting a second gold once the first one is gold is:

Pa(x2=G|x1=G)+Pb(x2=G|x1=G)+Pc(x2=G|x1=G) = 0 / Pa(x2=G|x1=G) + Pa(x2=S|x1=G) + Pb(x2=G|x1=G) + Pb(x2=S|x1=G) + Pc(x2=G|x1=G) + Pc(x2=S|x1=G) = 0
1+0+0+0/1+0+0+1+0+0 = 1/2

Happy?

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:09:25 2018 No.12265556 sorry, made a typo there. The last two lines should say: Pa(x2=G\|x1=G)+Pb(x2=G\|x1=G)+Pc(x2=G\|x1=G) = 0 / Pa(x2=G\|x1=G) + Pa(x2=S\|x1=G) + Pb(x2=G\|x1=G) + Pb(x2=S\|x1=G) + Pc(x2=G\|x1=G) + Pc(x2=S\|x1=G) 1+0+0+0/1+0+0+1+0+0 = 1/2

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:09:29 2018 No.12265558

>>12263269
Please, just stop with the link retardation.

It's shit. Buy in if you must, but for fuck's sake quit even trying to shill the rest of us on why it's going to grow. It isn't. But hey, I can buy $2 bills for $2 and probably sell them as collector's items with "investment potential" at a flea market for $3 each. There's a sucker born every minute. Either you are one, or you're trying to find those who are. Either way, GTFO.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:09:29 2018 No.12265559

>>12265533
are you willing to bet money on that?

i would argue that the given that the first speck is gold only excludes C so we can do this with 2 boxes A and B to speed things up because every time we pick silver we have to start over. so it's a dead end.

forget C!

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:10:26 2018 No.12265570

aaand another typo

Pa(x2=G|x1=G)+Pb(x2=G|x1=G)+Pc(x2=G|x1=G) / Pa(x2=G|x1=G) + Pa(x2=S|x1=G) + Pb(x2=G|x1=G) + Pb(x2=S|x1=G) + Pc(x2=G|x1=G) + Pc(x2=S|x1=G)

1+0+0+0/1+0+0+1+0+0 = 1/2

there you go

now if you still think the probability isn't 50%, i honestly don't know what else to say

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:11:34 2018 No.12265584

>>12265513
“GIVEN THAT”

That’s all you need to read. If you’re going to include and calculate the chance to pick a random box and then a speck of gold from from a box full of gold and a box with a single speck of gold after you read the words “given that” you are a perma-brainlet that thinks he’s mommy’s clever little boy.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:11:55 2018 No.12265587

>>12265570
>now if you still think the probability isn't 50%, i honestly don't know what else to say
it you think the probability is 50% then i propose we play a game with 9:1 odds on me betting on gold. with 50% probability you should win a lot of money if we play enough. very fast. agreed?

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:12:02 2018 No.12265591 >>12265559 show me how you can get a result other than 50% with math, not talking.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:12:45 2018 No.12265603 You niggers are so fucking stupid I almost want to die from associative shame

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:12:57 2018 No.12265608 >>12265584 yes yes the bet is only on after we pick a gold speck first. that's when you have to weight your odds. if it's silver a redo.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:14:23 2018 No.12265623

>>12265591
no just play the game with me! i'm serious let's meet up and play it. i will give you 9:1 odds if you think it's 1:1 you will be rich. i'm tried of talking and pajeet level discussions.

>i'm putting down these containers and mixing them up, then take random sample keep doing it until i get a gold speck. so we got a gold speck and now you have to bet, will the next one be gold or silver i bet $10000 it will be gold, you bet $1000 it will be silver

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:15:04 2018 No.12265630 >>12265559 Why do you keep asking if people are “willing to bet money on that” as if it means anything on an anonymous Korean lobster catching board? It’s a corny bluff in person and even cornier here. Shut up.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:17:45 2018 No.12265652
File: 1.03 MB, 499x499, 907.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

>>12263269
ITT: some anon posts a variation on the monty Hall problem and anons proceed to call each other retards despite the answer of 1/2 actually being very unintuitive and slightly ambiguous based on the wording of the question which can be interpreted in different ways.

Sage.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:18:21 2018 No.12265658 >>12265630 no i'm serious let's make a dapp for this man i'm only betting gold that's for sure.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:19:50 2018 No.12265678 >>12265652 if you take it literally it's not ambiguous (except for the word choose more like picked)

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:23:23 2018 No.12265729 >>12265652 nah you are right it's ambiguous because we don't know the box B surface ratio of silver and gold. as opposed to the traditional ball problem where the mixed box has a definite ratio.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:25:28 2018 No.12265750 >>12263269 isn't it 1/3rd? This is one of those "probability concentration" problems, right?

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:27:02 2018 No.12265766

>>12265630
>Why do you keep asking if people are “willing to bet money on that”
that's because i want you to imagine how this game would go for you and if your gut tells you not to take those odds then maybe try to find a mathematical solution why not instead of just shitting numbers all over the board without consequence. chance without consequence is meaningless. our brain evaluates risks differently when there is something on the line.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:28:21 2018 No.12265778

It's 99% going to be gold. The probability of you picking a gold spec from the box of silver is 1/100000000. Even though it is given that you picked a gold spec you have to account what the probability of picking that gold spec was. It is 99% going to be a gold spec after.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:34:02 2018 No.12265842

>>12265750
Oh shit I'm retarded because the probability of picking a box that contains a gold speck is 2/3rd but the probability of picking a gold speck is infinitesimally greater than 1/3rd. So if you pick a gold speck, the chance the rest of the box is gold is near 100%.
>I'm a junior in college
No wonder i failed econometrics

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:37:17 2018 No.12265869 LMAO.150 replies and still no correct answer. The answer is “not enough information given” you actual dumb brains. Can’t believe I still travel here.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:37:56 2018 No.12265876

Event A = picking gold speck first
Event B = rest of box is gold
What we want is the probability that the rest of the box is gold, given that the first speck from it is gold, i.e. P(B | A) (the | means "given" in probability notation).
P(B | A) = P(A and B) / P(A) (this is a formula to find the probability of one event given another event)
P(A and B) = probability the first speck you take is gold and the rest of the box is gold. This can only happen with the all gold box, and there are three boxes, so this = 1/3.
P(A) = probability that the first speck you take is gold. Because one box of three is gold, plus an infinitesimal amount of gold in the second box, this is infinitesimally more than 1/3.
Therefore:
P(B | A) = (1/3) / (1/3 + tiny number) = almost 100%.
This is high school statistics, and if another idiot comes with some excuse like "you misinterpreted the question" or "if and given mean two different things" I will have nothing to say, unless you can explain just what the difference is between "if" and "given" in probability theory.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:38:39 2018 No.12265883 >>12264424 anon this is how things work here now, we don't need more normies in our armies nor want to be a place where people finds stuff.pls kys

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:42:25 2018 No.12265913 >>12265842 >So if you pick a gold speck, the chance the rest of the box is gold is near 100%. indeed but some people still insist on 50/50 altho they are unwilling to bet money on it which should tell them something.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:44:57 2018 No.12265932 >>12265876 >This can only happen with the all gold box, and there are three boxes, so this = 1/3. in my interpretation if you pick silver first it's a redo this will exclude the 3rd box every time. so you can ignore it. try again!

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:49:28 2018 No.12265969
File: 7 KB, 250x230, ji5ukr1ah3o01.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

>>12265652
All of the "50%" brainlets (other than the ones trolling) are remembering that one time when someone explained the Monty Hall problem to them and it blew their mind, and now they think they are the clever one who knows how the magic trick works. Oblivious to the fact that this is a DIFFERENT problem than Monty Hall, and their "u n i n t u i t i v e" answer isn't clever, it's just fucking wrong.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:50:23 2018 No.12265986

>>12265932
Sorry, what? P(A) is simply the probability of choosing an all gold box. There is 1 box of three that are all gold. Dividing 1 (number of ways to choose a gold box) by 3 (size of sample space) gives us 1/3. Imagine if you asked the probability of rolling a 1 with a six sided die, and someone said "by my interpretation, if you get a 6 you reroll, so it's 1/5." Great, but that's not the situation we're looking at.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:51:52 2018 No.12265998 >>12265986 no you can't pick a gold speck form a silver box, so there is only 2 boxes you could have picked. if you exclude the third box you get less redos and nothing changes.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:52:45 2018 No.12266005 >>12265986 Fuck your rigged game kike! I know goddamn well none of your boxes contain gold.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:52:54 2018 No.12266007 >>12263391 Link investors everybody Good lord

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:53:56 2018 No.12266018 >>12265986 >Great, but that's not the situation we're looking at. it's kinda the same shit, the odds you are looking at already excluded the probability of the silver only box being picked.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:54:58 2018 No.12266030 >>12266005 kek

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:57:01 2018 No.12266054 File: 70 KB, 619x625, file.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>12263269 this is just the 2018 version of the portal question. Answer is 50%, just like the answer to the portal question is A). But people will argue for years so who cares.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 11:57:33 2018 No.12266060 >>12266005 Based

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 12:00:09 2018 No.12266091 >>12266054 >a question about probability is just like a question about made up game physics this really is the most brainlet board. grats

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 12:00:48 2018 No.12266100

>>12265998
P(A) is literally just the probability of choosing a gold speck. To find probability of an event, we take the number of ways it can occur divided by the size of the sample space (i.e. number of total possibilities). If we arbitrarily exclude parts of the sample space (e.g. rechoosing if the speck is from box 3) then we're answering a different question. In this case, the question you're answering would come out to 1/2 over (1/2 + tiny number) = almost 100%. This is a different question but one with the same answer, so if it helps you understand the problem then go ahead.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 12:06:05 2018 No.12266160

>>12266100
>rechoosing if the speck is from box 3
we are not re-choosing if it's from box 3 it can't be gold from box 3. so it's a dead end.

>the question you're answering would come out to 1/2 over (1/2 + tiny number) = almost 100%
that's more like it. not that it matters much i agree.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 12:08:50 2018 No.12266177 >>12266160 Again, that's like saying if I roll a die and want the probability of getting a 1, numbers above 3 are a dead end, so the probability is 1/3. You have to include the entire sample space to find a probability.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 12:10:39 2018 No.12266205 >>12266160 Remember, P(A) is simply the probability of choosing a gold speck randomly from the contents of the three boxes.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 12:21:08 2018 No.12266301 >>12265504 This would be a wonderful smart contract bet

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 12:24:52 2018 No.12266339 >>12265652 It's not a monty hall variation, monty hall drama rests on the agency of the "presenter". This is just ESL retardation.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 12:26:20 2018 No.12266350 >>12266301 yeah we could make a dapp casino with peer reviewed code it's just the number generator is a crucial piece of this. but we could probably seed by xor-ing the betting addresses or something. make it non-deterministic.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 12:27:38 2018 No.12266362 >>12266205 you keep saying that but i don't think you know what that means based on the rest of your posts.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 12:29:31 2018 No.12266379 >>12266350 It doesnt have to be a dapp just a regular smart contract, there are RNG solutions out there with acceptable security for this kind of thing. Maybe one of the ponzi devs would be interested.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 12:30:35 2018 No.12266389 >>12263843 real riddle anon? Tell me what SGX means with regards to riddle anon to prove if legit. you never used to do the letter thing like this before.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 12:31:11 2018 No.12266393 >>12266379 it looks like there would be a lot of people willing to bet silver. amazing.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 12:32:55 2018 No.12266404 >>12263427 So question, given that you picked a gold grain at random from a randomly selected box, which box were you more likely to have picked it from

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 12:37:00 2018 No.12266441

Cross posting from /sci/ :
i will explain it very very simply for all of you who are still confused.
You have a 100% chance of getting gold from B1.
You have a 0.00000000000000000001% chance of getting gold from B2.
You have a 0% chance of getting gold from B3.
You reach into a random box and get Gold.
You have a 100% chance of that box being the all gold box.
Therefor, you have a 100% chance of the next pull from the same box being gold.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 12:38:55 2018 No.12266455 >>12263269 Just open the heaviest one.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 12:39:46 2018 No.12266463

It's 50%
You only have two boxes that can be picked from again. One will always result in silver, the other will always result in gold. You aren't chosing specs, rather, you are choosing BOXES.

You don't get to rule out the chance that you picked the gold from the silver box just because it's unlikely that you would have picked that speck from that box. All you know is that you have gold in your hand, and that there are two boxes with gold in them, and that one of those boxes guarantees that you will pick gold, and the other silver. You picked 1of2 boxes, you have a 1in2 chance of that box being the gold one.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 12:40:37 2018 No.12266470 Anyone who unironically believes it's 50% has an IQ below 95

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 12:43:49 2018 No.12266502 >>12263607 it makes math fun desu

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 12:48:33 2018 No.12266542 >>12266463 and here is an other one... amazing. even after explained a hundred times there will be one that says 1/2.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 12:54:23 2018 No.12266593 >>12265608 >if it's silver a redo. but that's not the problem, you can't re-do it, it's 50/50 now

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 12:54:35 2018 No.12266595 >>12265005 That's like saying I have a 50\50 chance of rolling 6 on a die of all 6s and a die of 1-1,000,000,000 and I don't know which one rolled the six. I win the best description for brainlets award.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 12:56:17 2018 No.12266616 >>12266593 no i mean if you physically try this, with 3 containers, if you pick the silver one you redo until you pick the gold speck. that leaves 2 containers you picked from. you don't know which 1 you got of the 2 you just know it's not the 3rd.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 12:57:37 2018 No.12266625 >>12266616 >if you pick the silver one you redo until you pick the gold speck but that's not the problem, you are re-writing it

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 12:58:43 2018 No.12266634 >>12266625 no i'm not, the problem space excludes the container with no gold.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:00:27 2018 No.12266652 >>12266634 but you can't just keep picking, you just picked once, and picked gold, the problem is different if you keep picking until you get what you want

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:07:55 2018 No.12266726 >>12266652 it's the same thing really either you leave the 3rd container out of it or you redo every time you pick. mathematically all the same.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:07:56 2018 No.12266727

1,000,000 specks per box.
900,000,000 trials.

Box 1–Selected at random 300M times
>Gold Speck selected first 300M
Box 2–Selected 300M times
>Gold Speck selected first ~299 times
>Silver Speck selected 2.9701M
Box 3– Selected 300M times
>Silver Speck selected 300M times

Of all cases where the gold speck was selected first (300,000,299), the overwhelming majority came from the first box. There is a 99.99999% probability that I chose a gold speck because I picked the first box. As others ITT have said, I would go so far as to bet something like $1,000,000 against $1,000 that a gold speck was picked because it came out of the left box.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:09:29 2018 No.12266742 >>12263269 The odds are 50/50*1/however many silver total specks were inside the silver box. So, 50/50 you fucking retards

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:10:53 2018 No.12266762 >>12266742 are you willing to bet money on that? i'm serious here i want somone to bet money on silver i will give very good odds. 9:1 deal?

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:12:58 2018 No.12266779 >>12266441 I am going to quote myself here so you understand why 50/50 is completely retarded

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:13:02 2018 No.12266781 File: 664 KB, 1356x1340, Screenshot 2018-12-28 at 08.56.40.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>12263391

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:14:24 2018 No.12266792

>>12266727
For anyone here too retarded to understand this, let me try to frame it in a way your minds can understand it.
>I see three boxes
>one is guaranteed to give me gold
>one will probably never me give me gold even if I played it all day
>pick box at random
>it gives gold
>Woah! Surely it didn’t come from the middle box!
>pick left box

Remember that the left box will be picked 33% of the time, so roughly 33% of the time you will pick a gold speck. But people claiming the answer is 50/50 have to conclude that 16.5% of ALL TRIALS you will pick a gold speck out of the middle box.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:15:07 2018 No.12266799 >>12266727 >1,000,000 specks per box. i would be fine with 100 balls for simplicity.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:16:32 2018 No.12266806 >>12266799 It's actually fine with just 2 balls, where one box has 2 gold, one 2 silver, and the other one of each. That scenario is 2/3. This scenario is 99.999999999999999999999999999999% (100%)

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:18:05 2018 No.12266819 >>12266806 For accuracy’s sake, it’s actually 99.999990033343%

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:18:22 2018 No.12266823 >>12266806 yeah i know what you mean... :D we could head to /tg/ and start rolling dice, first to pick a container then to pick gold or silver. then we could make bets. and win virtual bitcoins from the losers that think this is a fucking game!

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:20:24 2018 No.12266845 >>12266762 Yeah

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:21:10 2018 No.12266850 >>12266823 you would lose 50% of the time

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:21:26 2018 No.12266856 >>12266845 Read this first >>12266727 >>12266792 before you lose all your money

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:23:29 2018 No.12266873 >>12263269 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:23:32 2018 No.12266874 >>12266792 GIVEN THAT MEANS THE PURE SILVER BOX IS IRRELEVANT

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:26:01 2018 No.12266894

>>12266874
Nice job ignoring my main point. I was only trying to stay true to the actual problem. But whatever, let’s get rid of the 3rd box. So that means that the all gold box will be picked 50% of the time. But you think the answer is 50/50, so you must think that at least 25% of the time, a gold speck will be picked out the middle box. This is clearly wrong

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:26:44 2018 No.12266901 >>12266850 I would win 100% of the time. >>12266874 EVEN IF THE PURE SILVER BOX IS IRRELEVANT, YOU HAVE A 100% CHANCE OF PULLING ANOTHER GOLD FROM THE SAME BOX

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:27:19 2018 No.12266904

>>12266850
well let's try it, you place bets on silver (house always bets gold) then:
>roll 1d3 !
>1 picked the gold container
>2 picked the silver with 1 gold in it
>3 picked the silver
>if #1 -> you lose
>if #2 roll 1d100 !
>if roll is 1 then it's gold otherwise redo!
>second roll 1d99 100% silver you win!
>if #3 redo

that's the algorithm for the example

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:30:06 2018 No.12266928

Let's just ignore the fucking all silver box
Box one has 1,000,000 gold pieces.
Box two has 999,999 silver pieces and one gold piece.
You pull a piece from a box and get gold.
ARE YOU GOING TO TELL ME YOU HAVE A 50/50 CHANCE OF PULLING SILVER FROM THE SAME BOX ON THE NEXT PULL?
If you seriously think this, you have literally no idea what you're talking about.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:31:18 2018 No.12266940 >>12266928 yeah including the all silver box is a retarded waste of time.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:31:25 2018 No.12266942 >>12266928 it's one out of 2 boxes, box 1 has 100% of pulling gold, box 2 has 0% of pulling gold, average is 50%

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:32:17 2018 No.12266951 File: 18 KB, 1142x273, simpleMath.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] Its simple: 100.003%.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:32:18 2018 No.12266952 File: 41 KB, 369x496, 1541264232119.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] IT IS G I V E N 50/50 LINK $5050 EOY confirmed

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:34:08 2018 No.12266968 >>12266942 Confirmed bait at this point. There is no way you're serious right now. That is not how probability works at all.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:34:13 2018 No.12266969 >>12266951 >using Python ever i see your problem

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:34:21 2018 No.12266972 >>12266928 It's 50/50. You either get silver or you don't. I teach high school math btw.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:34:31 2018 No.12266974 >>12266951 wait... its actually 0.999970000899973. Got my bayes mixed up there.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:34:58 2018 No.12266978 its virtually 100% you stupid faggots

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:35:15 2018 No.12266982 >>12266968 you should read about "independent events" anon

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:36:02 2018 No.12266990 >>12266942 no if you dumb >>12266904 down a bit you basically got 0.5 chance of instant losing, and 0.005 of winning, and 0.495 for a re-roll ie draw.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:37:23 2018 No.12267011 >>12266990 the original problem doesn't allow re-rolls, you can't keep trying until you get the result you want, this is pretty obvious

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:37:28 2018 No.12267013 >>12266982 >>12266792

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:38:22 2018 No.12267023 >>12267011 the original problem excludes that path of probability. but you can't when you try to simulate it from the beginning.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:38:45 2018 No.12267027 File: 1.00 MB, 2000x2000, 1436837842685.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>12263269 Yes, there are brainlets here who actually believe the chance is 50%, mostly leakage from /pol/

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:38:52 2018 No.12267030 >>12266792 >>12267013 >Remember that the left box will be picked 33% of the time you are not picking N times and choosing the ones that work for you, you are only picking 1 time

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:39:25 2018 No.12267035 >>12267011 you can say the original problem already rerolled until it's preconditions met.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:39:53 2018 No.12267042 >>12267027 im from /lit/, i'm telling you it's 50/50

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:41:21 2018 No.12267060

>>12266972
>I teach highschool math
no wonder you don't know what you're talking about
>>12266982
Literally not applicable at all. These are not independent events. The probability of getting a gold piece from either box is not independent of the percentage of gold pieces in either box. This is not a coin toss
You have a 100% chance of getting a gold piece from box 1, and a 0.000001% chance of getting gold from box 2. Therefore, if you get a gold piece from either box, the probability of getting another gold piece from the same box is 99.99999% (basically 100%)

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:41:54 2018 No.12267070 >>12267042 -10 points from gryffin... /lit/

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:42:35 2018 No.12267077 >>12263477 >>12264200 Wrong, because you still don't have the information of which box you're in, even GIVEN that you picked a gold speck

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:43:46 2018 No.12267091

>>12267060
>You have a 100% chance of getting a gold piece from box 1, and a 0.000001% chance of getting gold from box 2. Therefore, if you get a gold piece from either box, the probability of getting another gold piece from the same box is 99.99999% (basically 100%)
but you already chose, that's not part of the current problem, now it's 50/50

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:44:17 2018 No.12267099

>>12267030
You don’t understand the problems. It’s essentially asking: you just picked a gold speck, what’s the probability you did so because you picked the left box. Let’s just say there’s only 2 boxes. Then 50% of the time, the left box will give you gold. The other 50% of the time, you will ALMOST ALWAYS receive a silver speck. So if you expect that 50% of the time you will pick gold from the left box, and only 0.0001% you will pick gold from the mixed box, why would you think there’s a 50/50 chance if you see a gold speck? Why the fuck wouldn’t you expect it came from the all gold box?

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:45:01 2018 No.12267114 >>12263269 Never. The most hilarious thing is you all spend your days fudding projects when in reality you bought into a meme and the projects you fud are going to outlast your useless meme token.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:47:33 2018 No.12267134

>>12267091
The fact that you already chose IS LITERALLY WHY you know that it's 99.99999%
BEFORE you choose it's basically 50/50 of pulling a gold or silver (as half is gold, half is silver)
NOW YOU HAVE CHOSEN, gotten gold, and have to pull from the same box again.
THEREFORE, you have a 99.99999% chance of getting gold again.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:47:34 2018 No.12267135

>>12267099
To put it in other words, you will receive a gold speck 50% of the time. Therefore, since you claim the answer is 50/50, you expect to find a gold speck out of the middle box 25% of the time. You’re actually claiming that someone could pull a gold speck out of that mixed box in 4 tries.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:48:28 2018 No.12267146

>>12267091
>now it's 50/50
you choose but you don't know which. that's the point there is a probability attached to the choice. it's not certainty you can't just ignore it.
for example: >>12266904
if you could bet after the first roll, you would always win. but if you have to bet before the first roll, you would lose almost always.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:51:50 2018 No.12267175 >>12267146 these people dont understand conditional probability

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:52:06 2018 No.12267181 Probability approaches 100%. Tested and verified. Case closed.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:52:45 2018 No.12267193

>>12267091
>but you already chose, that's not part of the current problem, now it's 50/50
If you already chose, it's 100% one or the other not 50%.
Imagine this. You have a million gold coins to choose from. On the back on one of those it says "I'm from box two".
How big are the chance you pick that one?
You're saying you only have one from box 1 and one from box 2 and get to choose between them?

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:53:06 2018 No.12267195 >>12267175 it's tiring man... i think i'm done.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:53:09 2018 No.12267196 File: 130 KB, 1014x1046, Capture.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>12267181 Forgot pic, sorry

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:55:29 2018 No.12267216

I will once again try to explain this.

The spirit animal kek says that the first nugget you're going to pick is golden and therefore it is given that it is golden and the probability for that happening is 100%. The other way to think about it is that the event (first pick) has already happened and because the probability for all the events that's happened in the past is also 100%. This means that the P(gold nugget is picked first) = 1.

Because the first event was picking of the gold and not silver it must have been picked from one of the first two boxes. So there is 50% chance that the next one is also golden. P(second pick is also golden)=0.5.

Therefore the probability to pick two gold nuggets in a row when it is given that the first one is/was golden is P=P(first pick/gold)*P(second pick/gold)= 1*0.5=0.5=50%

There ya go fellas. Have a nice weekend.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:56:22 2018 No.12267224 >>12267196 it's not probability at that point that you ran the experiment it's occurrence.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:57:02 2018 No.12267234 File: 16 KB, 620x349, ipanews_cc6268b5-2b6e-4186-91a8-f0afccaa2c65_1.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] This thread is why Link will not hit $1000 EOY

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:58:12 2018 No.12267245 >>12267224 The definition of probability is how often it will occur.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:58:36 2018 No.12267249 >>12267216 wrong, it has been explained why, there is a python code posted that you can run to check for yourself it doesn't work. learn or fuck off!

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:59:35 2018 No.12267258 >>12267216 You are absolutely fucking retarded You guys, this shit isn't a debate or opinion. There is a correct answer, and it's that you have a 99.99999% chance of getting gold again. Anyone who disagrees is wrong. That's it

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 13:59:57 2018 No.12267262 >>12267245 but once it's occurred it is not probability anymore that is just my point. because you can't get different probability for a problem but you can get different occurrences as result exactly because of probability.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:00:11 2018 No.12267265 >>12263269 Slightly larger than 50% Everyone who doesnt understand this immediately will never make it.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:00:41 2018 No.12267271 >>12267262 Oh ok I see

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:12:40 2018 No.12267391 >>12267265 sorry anon you will never make it!

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:13:37 2018 No.12267399 >>12267135 No 50/50 brainless wanna respond to this? Ok

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:13:40 2018 No.12267401 >>12265134 but that doesn't matter given that you're already gotten a speck of gold highly unlikely that it was from the second box but not impossible

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:15:11 2018 No.12267426

It's 50% sharp. Not less or more. The question is that what is the probability that the REST of the box is gold. If the first nugget was picked from the middle box then the rest of the box is silver and if from the first then the rest of the box is entirely gold.

It's 50 % guys.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:16:25 2018 No.12267443 >>12267401 >highly unlikely that it was from the second box but not impossible true but only a brainlet would bet on it.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:16:45 2018 No.12267446 >>12267426 >>12266727 >>12266792 >>12267099 >>12267135

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:24:09 2018 No.12267537

Okay, here is a very simple mathematical way to think of it.
The probability of pulling a gold from the silver-with-one-gold box is 1/n.
Thus the probability of pulling another gold is n/(n+1).
The limit as n approaches infinity of n/(n+1) = 1.
Therefore you have a 100% chance of getting another gold, given you got gold the first time.
QED

If THIS doesn't convince you, you're never going to make it.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:25:55 2018 No.12267553

>>12267446
It is given that the first pick is a gold grain. So you've already selected the left or the middle box. The question is that what is the probability that the rest of the box is full of gold (the next pick is also golden). No need for the flashy code and such.

It's 50%.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:26:59 2018 No.12267569 >>12267553 See >>12266928

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:27:37 2018 No.12267575 >>12267537 Would it not be n-1/n? 1 - 1/n?

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:27:54 2018 No.12267578

There are two boxes and each has 1000 coins in.
Box A has 1000 gold coins
Box B has 990 silver coins and 10 gold coins

You have chosen a box and reached into it and pulled out 10 coins at random. They are all gold.

Given that this has already happened:

Do you think "Ooh! that was probably box A" or "I haven't learnt anything, it's still 50/50"

Do you really think you have learned absolutely nothing about the box until you pull out an 11th coin?

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:30:10 2018 No.12267606 >>12267537 You're wrong. It is given that the first pick is a golden grain. The probability for that first particular event is 100% in this case.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:30:14 2018 No.12267608 >>12267553 You’re assuming that the probability of picking gold from each box is the same, which is clearly false. Most of the time, you pick a gold speck because it came from the left box. You’re either trolling or beyond retarded

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:33:28 2018 No.12267653 >>12267606 See >>12267134

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:34:22 2018 No.12267665 >>12264762 It's already given that you picked the first gold speck, so it doesn't matter what probability it was. It already happened.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:35:24 2018 No.12267678 >>12264826 False equivalence, kid. Try again.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:36:14 2018 No.12267690 >>12267665 >>12266792

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:41:45 2018 No.12267752 >>12267665 See >>12267134 There's a thing called "conditional probability" that many here seem to be lacking knowledge of

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:42:46 2018 No.12267756
File: 95 KB, 1016x1024, 8E269416-9C54-4D31-86EE-0D236900A29A.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

>people still don’t understand conditional probability
That was the easiest high school math class you bunch of fucking losers.

Somebody post a calc 2 level integral and see how many replies that thread gets.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:45:05 2018 No.12267783

>>12267608
No. We've already selected the box for the next pick by picking up the first nugget which was gold (100% probability). Because it is given that the first pick was from the left or the middle box it's 50% chance that the next pick is from the box full of gold or box now-full-of-silver (middle box).

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:47:31 2018 No.12267820

>>12267783
Tell me this, please. If you play the game with all 3 boxes, roughly what percentage of time will you grab the gold speck out of the middle box? I’ll give you a hint: it has to be less than 33% because the box can only be selected 33% of the time. Please give a rough approximation of your answer

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:48:09 2018 No.12267834 >>12267756 i always fluked out on probability at the uni. never passed it. but even for my formally retarded brain it's obvious the 50/50 fags are wrong.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:48:17 2018 No.12267836

>>12267752
Conditional probability has nothing to do with this problem, my friend.

Try to visualize the problem so it might be clearer.
- Imagine you have the 3 boxes in front of you and your hand can fall randomly on one of the three boxes
- we already know that it will not fall on box 3
- if it falls on box 2 it will automatically pick the gold speck, since it's a given of the problem
As a result, you have no reason whatsoever to think that box 1 is more likely, the probability is exactly the same as box 2. Not sure I explained properly but you get the idea.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:49:38 2018 No.12267847 >>12265007 This

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:52:04 2018 No.12267873 >>12267820 This is what I'm trying to explain. The "game" is not played with all the 3 boxes after the fact that the first pick was gold. It would be if all the boxes contained some gold but that's a different question.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:53:01 2018 No.12267883 >all these sub-30 ACT brainlets >all these sub-1350 SAT brainlets IT IS CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:54:30 2018 No.12267891

>>12267836
So you’re telling me that if you played this game, and you chose a box at random and pulled out a gold speck, that you would bet your $10 against my $90 that the next speck will be silver? Don’t you know that you will pick a gold speck from the all gold box much more frequently than picking it out of the middle box?

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:54:57 2018 No.12267898

>>12267836
>if it falls on box 2 it will automatically pick the gold speck, since it's a given of the problem
you couldn't be more wrong.
you are saying for the probability of a guy getting a stroke right after he won the lottery winning the lottery is a given so it's chance doesn't matter. which is retarded.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:56:13 2018 No.12267910

>>12265623
>no just play the game with me! i'm serious let's meet up and play it. i will give you 9:1 odds if you think it's 1:1 you will be rich
Based retard, we can't reproduce the problem in reality because in the real world it cannot be GIVEN that we pick a gold speck, and OBVIOUSLY most of the times we pick one it will be from box 1.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:56:15 2018 No.12267912 >>12267873 Can’t answer the question? It’s very simply, yet you ignored it. I wonder why

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:56:19 2018 No.12267913 >>12267891 we need to fucking make this game the world is full of retards that would bet silver. this is the road to riches i was searching for!

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:57:20 2018 No.12267927 >>12267910 >we can't reproduce the problem in reality because in the real world it cannot be GIVEN that we pick a gold speck yes we can redo from start when we don't get one first simple as that.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:57:32 2018 No.12267929 >>12267910 In other words, given that you do pick a gold speck, you will expect that it came from box 1 :)

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 14:59:15 2018 No.12267953

>>12267927
You don't get it, in the statistical problem it always works, the gold speck is automatically picked from box 2 if your hand happens to pick that box. Because it's a G I V E N of the problem. This is obviously not the case in real life, and you would obviously win the bet 99.999999% of the times.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:00:26 2018 No.12267963 >>12267929 In real life, yes. The higher the number of specks, the higher the probability it was box 1

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:02:13 2018 No.12267977

>>12267953
But you don’t know that you picked box 2. That’s the point. Given that you picked a gold speck, it’s probably because you picked box 1. If you played the game 100 times with a million specks in each box, about 33 times you will pick a gold speck first, and every time it will be because you picked box 1. Or do you think you could somehow pick a gold speck from the middle box 16 times?

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:03:30 2018 No.12267987 >>12267953 >Because it's a G I V E N of the problem. it's the perfect analogy for redo every time you didn't get a gold in real life you eliminate the probabilities the exact same way.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:03:31 2018 No.12267988 >>12263269 As the answer to OP's puzzle approaches 1/0, so too does the price of LINK approach $1/0 while end of year approaches.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:04:42 2018 No.12268000 >>12267963 This question can be easily modeled in real life. Once someone inevitably chooses a gold speck, you say to them, “GIVEN that you just chose a gold speck, which box do you think you chose?” And if he’s smart, he will say box 1

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:05:08 2018 No.12268003 >>12267977 OK got it. I feel bad now.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:05:37 2018 No.12268009 >>12268000 this is probably the most normie friendly way to word the problem.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:07:50 2018 No.12268038 >>12267883 there's no condition, it's a GIVEN, you already have the gold speck in your hand, so it's a fact you picked either box 1 or box 2, now it's 50/50

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:11:13 2018 No.12268071 >>12268038 >plays the game >one box guarantees gold >one box almost never gives me gold, but it could >pick up gold speck >it’s probably because I picked box 1... >No! GIVEN that I just picked a gold speck, the probability is 50/50!

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:12:25 2018 No.12268089 its 50/50 niggers

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:12:40 2018 No.12268094 >>12268038 This is the best way anyone has put this. Including myself. Bravo.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:13:15 2018 No.12268097 >>12268038 stupid nigger

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:16:22 2018 No.12268130 >>12268094 With the exception that the solution to problem actually is based on the theory of conditional probability ;)

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:17:17 2018 No.12268143

>>12268071
if you got the first 9 numbers of the lottery right, what's the probability that you get the 10th number right? it's 1/10 because the previous numbers are irrelevant for this independent event

just like on OPs problem it's 1/2 or 50/50, because the previous pick is already given

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:17:53 2018 No.12268147

>>12268089
>>12268094
You play the game 99 times. 33 times, you will choose box 1 obviously, and therefore you will pick a gold speck 33 times. Each time, I will ask you, “Given that you chose a gold speck, which box do you think you chose?”
And you say 50/50. Therefore you think that 16 out of 100 times, you will have picked a gold speck from that middle box. Incredible odds!

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:19:05 2018 No.12268161 File: 77 KB, 645x729, brainlet1.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>12268038 Daily reminder that this is your average Ethereum bag holder

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:20:53 2018 No.12268181

Box 1

1.000.000 gold specks

Box 2

1 gold speck
999.999 silver specks

Box 3 is irrelevant

Total 2.000.000 specks of whom are 1.000.001 golden and only 1 golden in box 2

It is given that you chose 1 out of 1.000.001 golden specks of which one is in box 2
The probability that you chose the one in box 2 is 1/1.000.000

So the probability of you, to choose 1 gold speck of box 1, and the rest of the box being gold is about 99.99%

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:21:01 2018 No.12268185

>>12268143
False analogy. A better one would be this:

You play the lottery. You called a friend to rig the lottery for you, and he has a surefire way of doing it, but he might have forgotten to do it, so you don’t know if it worked. You end up winning the lottery. Do you think your friend rigged it or not?

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:21:12 2018 No.12268187 no it's not like that, because you only got one game. it's like you either won a coin toss or you won the lottery (you don't know which one) what are the chances of you winning the lottery?

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:21:31 2018 No.12268194 >>12268143 Your odds of picking the one gold spec in the silver box are extremely low. If you're left with the choice between box 1 and box 2 there is a ~99% chance that you picked from box 1.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:22:14 2018 No.12268202 >>12268143 no it's not like that, because you only got one game. it's like you either won a coin toss or you won the lottery (you don't know which one) what are the chances of you winning the lottery?

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:25:28 2018 No.12268234 >>12268147 I dare someone to respond to this

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:28:57 2018 No.12268278 >>12268234 you are not playing the game 99 times, you choose 1/3 boxes and you are given a gold speck, now it's a 50/50 chance between box 1 and 2

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:29:21 2018 No.12268284 >>12263269 If the speck of gold you chose is from the silver box, There is A ZERO PERCENT CHANCE there will be another speck of gold in that box. If you chose the gold from the gold box, theres a 100% chance. Therefore it is 50/50

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:31:37 2018 No.12268312 >>12268278 You are a retard. Your probability of pulling a gold spec from box 2 is not nearly the same as from box 1.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:33:04 2018 No.12268325 holy fucking shit LMAO biz is so retarded its 100%

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:33:22 2018 No.12268328 >>12268312 the probability of pulling a gold speck at the point where you find yourself in the problem is 100%, whether you picked box 1 or 2 is irrelevant

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:33:36 2018 No.12268330

>>12268278
Probability is made clearer the more often the game is played out. I can’t believe you’re even ignoring/denying this. It’s not as if these types of simulations will lead you to the wrong answer. Since you think the probability is 50/50, you think that every time you see a gold speck, there’s a 50/50 chance it come from box 1 or box 2. Since box 1 will chosen 33% of the time, you must think that the golden speck from box 2 will be chosen 16.5% of ALL TRIALS, even with the boxes. But even if you were only pulling out specks from box 2 alone, the probability would obviously be less than 1%. You’re wrong, it’s ok. It’s not an intuitive problem.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:35:21 2018 No.12268352

>>12268330
>Since you think the probability is 50/50, you think that every time you see a gold speck, there’s a 50/50 chance it come from box 1 or box 2.
i don't, you have 100% change of getting a gold speck in this problem, from which box it comes is irrelevant

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:35:34 2018 No.12268353 >>12268328 What is the probability that you pulled the gold spec from box 1? What is the probability that you pulled the gold spec from box 2? If you think they have equal probability you are probably from Africa.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:36:13 2018 No.12268357 >>12268328 no it's not because you most likely picked box #1. that's the point. you having picked box#2 (you don't know it it's just a probability is extremely low) is what the second being silver depends on. jesus it's not actually hard.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:37:51 2018 No.12268376 >>12268352 >from which box it comes is irrelevant of course it's not that's the entire point "which box did you get it from?" because it determines the outcome 100%.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:39:33 2018 No.12268386 >>12268376 >>12268357 >>12268353 google "independent event"

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:40:42 2018 No.12268398

>>12268352
I set up 3 boxes on the street just like in OP. I tell one person to choose a box at random, then pick a speck. If they choose silver, then they don’t get to play and I pick someone else. If they choose gold, then I ask them, “Given that you chose a gold speck, which box do you think you chose?”

If I did this all day long, probably no one would ever pick that gold speck from the middle box. Yet, 33% of the time, someone will definitely pick a gold speck. YOU are telling ME that if you were one of those people who picked a gold speck, you think that the probability that you picked that gold speck from box 2 is the same as box 1. I would then bet you $1,000 against your $10 that you picked the all gold box. And you would lose that bet 99.99999% of the time.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:40:50 2018 No.12268399 >>12268386 That has nothing to do with this problem.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:41:22 2018 No.12268404 >>12268398 you are committing the gamblers fallacy, again, google "independent event"

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:41:26 2018 No.12268405

>>12268376
The dude is right. Think of this way. You pick the cold nugget. So therefore you either have in front of you for the nex pick a box full of silver or box full of gold. At this point after the first (gold) pick it's a 50% chance that you have a box full of gold in front of you.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:44:28 2018 No.12268444

>>12268404
The gambler’s fallacy only applies when someone thinks a past event affects a future event, such as thinking having a baby boy means that your next child will probably be a girl, or that flipping heads on a coin a few seconds ago means that you will probably flip tails. These are instances of gambler’s fallacies. This problem is not because the event has already occurred. You picked a gold speck, you’re just looking at the box probabilities to figure out which one you probably chose.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:47:35 2018 No.12268477 File: 108 KB, 638x479, heuristics-behavioural-finance-10-638.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>12268444 right, so picking a gold speck is 100% because you already did, now it's 50/50 between box 1 or 2

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:49:19 2018 No.12268497 >>12268386 they are not they would have been only independent events if you knew the result of the first selection. but you don't you only know probabilities.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:49:21 2018 No.12268498 >>12268330 I admire your patience and the fact you are not insulting anyone

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:49:56 2018 No.12268505 File: 8 KB, 216x233, brainlet2.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>12268477

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:50:04 2018 No.12268506 >>12268497 >they would have been only independent events if you knew the result of the first selection but you literally know, the probability of picking a gold speck is 100% because you just did, now it's 50/50 between the 2 boxes

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:50:58 2018 No.12268518 >>12268506 Why would box 2 have the same probability of box 1?

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:51:15 2018 No.12268520

>>12268477
If it’s 50/50, then shouldn’t we expect that of all the times you saw the gold speck, there should be an equal distribution among box 1 and 2? For example, you play the game 900 times. 300 times, you will shown the gold speck, then you answer 50/50. Doesn’t that mean that you expect to have picked the gold speck from the middle box 150 times?

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:53:13 2018 No.12268538 >>12268477 you forget it's not a random event. you already picked there is nothing random in it, the only question is which one you picked and there is a probability attached to that. and it's overwhelmingly in favor of gold container.

Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:53:24 2018 No.12268543

>>12268444
In this case the first event (pick) affects the second in the sense that the box on the right gets excluded and the fact that now we know that the box in front of us includes only gold or only silver (left or middle box). After the first pick there is a 50% chance that the box in front of you is full of gold.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:54:24 2018 No.12268552 >>12268520 >For example, you play the game 900 times you don't play the game 900 times, you play it once and get a gold speck, now it's 50/50 between box 1 and 2

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:54:53 2018 No.12268557 >>12268543 >After the first pick there is a 50% chance that the box in front of you is full of gold. No. After the first pick, assuming you picked gold, there is a 99.999% chance that the gold box is in front of you.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:55:18 2018 No.12268561 >>12268543 Please respond to >>12268520 I would love to see what I’m seeing wrong here. In my mind, it’s pretty incredible to pick a gold speck from that box 16.5% of the time.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:56:22 2018 No.12268574 >>12268552 >you play it once and get a gold speck see this is why you fail at math

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:56:31 2018 No.12268578 >>12268552 But IF you played the game 900 times. Do you think probability only works once and then dies after playing the same event?

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 15:56:40 2018 No.12268582 >>12268552 >now it's 50/50 between box 1 and 2 How did you come up with those odds? See: >>12268518

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 16:02:37 2018 No.12268645 50/50, good luck with your cryptogambling brehs

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 16:03:33 2018 No.12268654 >>12268645 Didn’t want to respond to >>12268578 Did you finally realize you’re wrong?

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 16:03:39 2018 No.12268656 >>12268645 kek I love how he ignores our questions and just keeps repeating his assertions like an NPC. Definitely a democrat.

>>	Anonymous Fri Dec 28 16:07:24 2018 No.12268703 >>12268656 it has to be trolling at this point.

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