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12006351 No.12006351 [Reply] [Original]

THE YIELD CURVE IS INVERTED. RECESSION IS CONFIRMED. BOOMERS ARE FUCKED.

When the Inverted Yield Curve Last Forecast a Recession

The Treasury yield curve inverted before the recessions of 2000, 1991, and 1981.

The yield curve also predicted the 2008 financial crisis two years earlier. The first inversion occurred on December 22, 2005. The Fed, worried about an asset bubble in the housing market, had been raising the fed funds rate since June 2004. By December, it was 4.25 percent.

>> No.12006361

>>12006351
Is this a serious headline? What kind of shit journalism you have over there?

>> No.12006370

ELI5 please

>> No.12006424

>>12006370
When a yield curve inverts, it's because investors have little confidence in the near-term economy. They demand more yield for a short-term investment than for a long-term one. They perceive the near-term as riskier than the distant future. They would prefer to buy long-term bonds and tie up their money for years even though they receive lower yields. They would only do this if they think the economy is getting worse in the near-term.

>> No.12006668

>>12006424
also mean they'll be more incline to sell when red candles appear

>> No.12006735

It's a long term indicator. Major correction within 12 months (NOT recession).

>> No.12006908

Do Bitcoins go up during recessions?

>> No.12006942

>>12006908
BTC was invented in the last recession
and to answer ur question no one knows because we have no historical data to back up any claim
here's a fact though, during recessions risky investment get btfo and BTC is very risky
who knows though
i always thought bad economy news is good for BTC but this hasnt been the case yet, i thought Venezuala and Iran would be great fr BTC but this hasnt been the case
problem is 90% of coins are owned by less than 10% and we're at the mercy of these whales really

>> No.12006946

>>12006908
No previous data on this, but..
>do people buy incredibly risky internet coins when their economy goes shit?
Might be a good time to buy some though
If you keep the gunpowder dry

>> No.12006989

>>12006424
>>12006351
>fed cannot slow Dow. The economy through market operation


Kek. Trump is causing inflation to happen too fast.

>> No.12007012
File: 26 KB, 636x773, 5ACB978E-329F-4106-A373-86498D4FC94B.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
12007012

>>12006989
>Orange man bad

>> No.12007035

>>12006361

Here's why you should be worried.

>> No.12007036
File: 79 KB, 413x395, 1534097367723.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
12007036

>>12006946
wait until the inevitable government bailout trigger an other spyke in inflation

>> No.12007459
File: 44 KB, 1156x421, inversion 2y10y.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
12007459

>>12006351
mongrel faggot kike nigger

>> No.12007557
File: 115 KB, 500x730, 1543432004583.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
12007557

>>12006942
BTC is 40k in Iran.
Venezuala market only alive thanks to crypto like DASH.
>any more ?

>> No.12007594

>>12007459
whats a trend retard

>> No.12007621

>>12007557
BTC is 40k in Iran.
how is that even possible?
i would sell to any irani gentlemen for $5k

>> No.12007631

>>12007594
I never said recession wouldn't happen I'm merely pointing out that it's not gonna be instant like OP the fag is implying.

>> No.12007639

>>12007557
>BTC is 40k in Iran
Sauce

>> No.12007695

>>12007631
fair OPs a fag

>> No.12007731

>>12007557
>cryptos like Dash
The fact that Dash has a marketing department targeting in Venezuela doesn't mean Bitcoin isn't king there
t. Venezuelan

>> No.12007847

>>12006361

>> No.12007854

>>12007035
And thats a good thing.

>> No.12008244

>>12006424
>short-term time preference

so the economy is turning into a nigger?

>> No.12008288

Like Trump would ever let the economy fall you absolute pee brained idiot

>> No.12008309
File: 96 KB, 662x394, 1542252534917.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
12008309

>>12006942
>>12006946
Wait till the dollar hyperinflates. Things like gold and Bitcoin which are hard sound money will soar.

>> No.12008320

>>12008288
muh orange man good

>> No.12008339

>>12006908
No, Gold does.

Bitcoin has NO REAL VALUE.

NO.

>> No.12008350

>>12007731
Venezuela isnt really a good example because they're In a near famine. People naturally are going to prioritize food and medicine over alternative currencies and investments.

>> No.12008363

>>12006351
And thats a good thing

>> No.12008389

>>12007557
>BTC is 40k in Iran.
In dollars or rials? I suspect the latter.

>> No.12008459

>tfw won't sell my stocks
>partly because TA is a meme and you can't accurately predict the future market
>and partly because I don't even know what I'd buy

>> No.12008573

>>12008459
It doesnt take TA to see that the Trump's domestic market enthusiasm and skyrocketing housing prices over the last several years have put the US in an unstable bubble.

>> No.12008628
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12008628

>>12007639
It is I, none other than the Prince of Iran himself. It is indeed true my friend that a bitcoin in my country is 40,000 rupees

>> No.12008633
File: 42 KB, 1029x753, (((Interest Rates))).png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
12008633

>>12008573
>The crash is Trump's fault!
Oh, then let's print 4 trillion debt dollars™ and hand them to the banks in exchange for low interest rates until the end of his term. We'll call it "Quantitative Easing".

>> No.12008658

>>12008339
lmao boomer cope
both work in the same way
they're not tied to fucking fiat-cuck-paper

>> No.12008677
File: 69 KB, 857x626, yieldcurve.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
12008677

but it is only the 3-5y gap that went negative. see pic. so shouldn't we still wait with selling everyting?

>> No.12008721

>>12008633
I didnt say its trump's fault you moron. Enthusiasm went up for domestic investment because his policies focus on revitalizing domestic production and infrastructure, which is a good thing. The market caused the bubble for all the right reasons. The fed is removing the brakes on the recession train by raising interest rates.

>> No.12008952
File: 606 KB, 390x220, 805922468_preview_smiler gif 1.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
12008952

>>12006351
OH SHIT, IS THAT THE MOTHERFUCKING SMILER?

>> No.12009072

>>12008309
>bitcoin
>hard sound money
Lel.

>> No.12009594

>>12007012

cocaine snooters for archboomer neocons

>> No.12010077
File: 919 KB, 1440x2960, Screenshot_20181204-201601_Firefox.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
12010077

>>12006351
Only comment worth reading in that dumbness

>> No.12010086
File: 1021 KB, 1440x2960, Screenshot_20181204-201639_Firefox.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
12010086

>>12010077
W-we're all gonna make it til at l-least like idk

>> No.12010091
File: 34 KB, 600x785, 6fae41162fda01ff30eb0590433e649998096033.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
12010091

This just means you should move into safer assets OP. If you're reaction is to put everything into crypto, one of the most volatile and risky asset classes on the market, you're gonna get ass fucked.

>> No.12010160

>>12008309
If the crypto ETF, Bakkt, etc get passed by mid next year I'll know for a fact it will be used as a safety zone. No coiners will be chasing the bus by the time they realize it.

>> No.12010177

>>12006370
The Chinese are crashing the US economy. With no survivors.

>> No.12010179

>>12008350
If you are going to prioritize food in Venezuela your going to need money or currency to buy that food. Man you people are stupid. Do you think food just becomes free when a currency collapses?

People with gold and silver are sitting pretty in Venezuela

>> No.12010217

>>12007012
>calling somebody an NPC by acting like an NPC
I love how this meme is causing NPCs to out themselves.

>> No.12010229

>>12008339
>real value argument
so you still only accept pounds of wheat as payment?

>> No.12010848

>>12007012
This. Only NPCs criticize based Trump.

>> No.12010938
File: 394 KB, 598x564, 1542807870148.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
12010938

>>12010177
>The Chinese are crashing the US economy
Hmmm what prompted them to do that

>> No.12010970

>>12006424
how the fuck does this work?
are you trolling?
why wouldn’t investors just rebuy short term bonds instead of buying long ones when the yield on the former is higher?

>> No.12010990
File: 9 KB, 205x246, 1541758698790.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
12010990

>>12007012
>Orange man good

>> No.12011023

How come everyone thinks this means its going to keep going down and its not a temporary dip? From what i saw, when it dipped below it was DURING the recession in 2008, it was a sign of being at the bottom. What this really means is right fucking now is the "recession", because we're about to start the most massive GBR of all time once we go up from this.

>> No.12011050

>>12010970
dont think of it as "investors are taking money from short term and buying long term"... think of it as
"no one wants to buy treasuries... especially short term"
Short term is for parking your money. Long term is for macro risk management. No one wants short term because they will have to have cash on hand to keep from being liquidated because everyone is exposed to leverage (even if you don't use it)

>> No.12011118

i dont get why people are so fucking worried about a recession. nothing will change. you will still eat. you will still work. you will still live. you just might not have much money but you will survive. it will be alright.

>> No.12011141

It means that piggy bank (you know the one I told you to keep all your extra money in) is ready to be cracked open to snap up assets for pennies on the dollar, we are all about to become very wealthy

>> No.12011143

>>12006351
>boomers are fucked
>implying crypto isn't
Crypto follows the market. Everyone prepared to be BOGGED

>> No.12011223
File: 78 KB, 766x960, 1480487772873.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
12011223

>>12006942
>>12006946
>>12010160
Yeah I'm very curious what will happen here, since bitcoin is so new we don't have any heuristics to look at yet. I'm hypothesizing it'll be used as the zoomer's gold and will pump, alongside gold. I imagine institutions will still be treating gold as king here, but I think bitcoin has shown enough staying power that people will use it as an alternative to having money in stocks. Bitcoin (like gold, really) may not have any "real" value, but remember, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

>> No.12011233

Crypto is a speculative asset. People will dump it to cover their loses during a recession. Expect massive dumps then a linear increase in value over the next decade.

>> No.12011272
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12011272

>>12011233
Grahampilled post.

>> No.12011280

>>12011233
It's a different kind of speculation though. Bitcoiners are speculating that global currencies collapse and bitcoin takes over. That is EXTREMELY speculative, but traditional market chaos is very bullish.

>> No.12011293

>>12008677
Long 2 /ZF, Short 1 /ZT, Short 1 /ZN

>> No.12011294

>>12011272
The bible of investing

>> No.12011295
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12011295

>>12006351

>> No.12011369

>>12011294
Graham is the Jesus of investing and Buffett is is profit.

>> No.12011379

>>12011369
Buffett is his profit. Yes, I spelled that correctly.

>> No.12011418

>>12010091
loops said now's the time to buy and i'm buying, nigger

>> No.12011608
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12011608

>>12007012
>Stinky token bad

>> No.12011651
File: 32 KB, 853x665, india.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
12011651

>>12011608
>link good

>> No.12011664

>>12006361
How would you know its important if they didnt tell you goy.

>> No.12011675

>>12010970
Cointer party risk. The US is broke.

>> No.12011762
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12011762

>>12011651

>> No.12011763

>>12011023
Mathematically inpossible

>> No.12011788

>>12011762
Saved.

>> No.12011953

>>12010217
WHOOOOOOOOOOOOSH

>> No.12011992

Recessions are max comfy times for NEETs

>> No.12012023

>>12011762
Did you change „delenda carthago“ to „semper tyrannis“ on purpose or do you just not know any roman history?

>> No.12012030

>>12011992
good time to be in entertainment as well

>>12010970
no one wants to buy bonds. period. thats why this is happening

>>12007631
this
check the last time the curve flipped. it was quite a while before it crashed totally. between 1 and 2 years

tho i DO think that this time, there will be less of a lead. im saying next fall

>> No.12012136

>>12011143
Yeah but we're used to it.

>> No.12012180

>>12011143
from what ive seen, crypto seems to lead on the major down moves
not enough data to determine if that will be the same case on the way up tho

>> No.12012215

>>12012136
>/biz/ buy high sell low
We're all used to it.
>>12012180
Either way, prepare to buy the dip.

>> No.12012236

>predict the economic collapse last year november
>tell all the normies
>no one believes me
>grab free wall street journal out of autism in study room and circle all the banks that will collapse
>chad walks by and laughs at my autism
this is the worst feel

>> No.12012568
File: 16 KB, 480x360, Spongebob.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
12012568

>>12011369
Buffet is an old fag that should khs like you, you POS shill

>> No.12012593

>>12006424

WHY THE FUCK DID YOU ANSWER HIM, YOU FUCKING FAGGOT !!!????

WHEN A FUCKING REDDITOR LIKE >>12006370 COMES HERE AND WRITES SOMETHING LIKE THAT, YOU ARE SUPPOSED TO FUCKING IGNORE HIM, DO YOU FUCKING UNDERSTAND? YOU FUCKING FUCKER, PEOPLE LIKE YOU ARE HELPING TO TURN THIS PLACE INTO REDDIT 2.0.

PLEASE, PROCEED TO PROMPTLY KILL YOURSELF BY DRINKING HYDROFLUORIC ACID WHILE BREATHING ZYKLON B.

>> No.12013372

>>12011762
blockstream delenda est

>> No.12013712

>>12012023
I didn't make the pic

>> No.12013973

>>12011118
Larger chance of losing your job, not paying bills, kids education. Definitely worth worrying about.
My Dad essentially lost two of his jobs during 2008 onwards because his work dried up, made life extremely difficult