/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.11474166]

Calling all TA fags for their opinion.

> Are we out of the woods?

[Anonymous No.11474182]

>>11474166
too soon.

[Anonymous No.11474187]

>>11474166
Monday will give us the answer. Personally i think we're still in for more sideways.

>>11474182
Nah

[Anonymous No.11474199]

>>11474166
No, the woods have only just begun. I hope you enjoyed how nice the market has been the past year, because you're about to get fucked up the ass by an old wizard who lives alone in the woods. It's been a real long time since he's had a human ass to fuck, so he's going to pound it long and hard.

[Anonymous No.11474207]

>>11474166
Wtf is that stupid line stop chopping wicks

[Anonymous No.11474216]

>>11474166
Triangles break all the time. Remember when the old meme triangle from 20k broke on 4/20? (heh)

Horizontal price is more significant. If we start breaking resistances like 6600, 7400, 8400 we'll be safu.

[Anonymous No.11474225]

>>11474216
>>11474166
ta is complege useless garbage. stop doing it or go to reddit

[Anonymous No.11474228]

>>11474187
Agreed

Volatiliry is pretty much out of the markets, which is good. Slow sideways, then slow growth

[Anonymous No.11474232]

>>11474207
Line was drawn after around where the vertical dash line is

[Anonymous No.11474259]

>>11474225
this. inb4 TAfags foaming at the mouth

[Anonymous No.11474289]

ARE WE OUT OF THE WOODS YET? ARE WE OUT OF THE WOODS YET?
ARE WE OUT OF THE WOODS YET? ARE WE OUT OF THE WOODS?
ARE WE IN THE CLEAR YET? ARE WE IN THE CLEAR YET?
ARE WE IN THE CLEAR YET? IN THE CLEAR YET, GOOD

[Anonymous No.11474305]

>>11474225
>>11474259
>thinks looking at the current price is considered TA
When a stock hits ATH, is that TA?

[Anonymous No.11474321]

>>11474305
>calling all TA fags for their opinion.
>triangles break all the time
>resistances

this is ta, and its complete garbage

whats your point?

[Anonymous No.11474327]

>>11474225
>>11474259

[Anonymous No.11474331]

>>11474259
>>11474305
right on schedule

[Anonymous No.11474336]

>>11474321
I was pointing out that triangles dont matter. Something like ATH is a resistance. I'm sorry, I hope you enjoyed your stay, but you have to go BACK

[Anonymous No.11474347]

>>11474336
>Something like ATH is a resistance
continuing to spew ta bro science

you go back to school and educate yourself about finance.

or as i said, go to reddit. they like finance normies like you

[Anonymous No.11474352]

>>11474216
Oh boy i dont see it happening then. I could see it going sideways but breaking resistances seems unlikely. You think there's enough fuel for that?

[Anonymous No.11474356]

>>11474347
Enjoy poverty, pajeet

[Anonymous No.11474381]

>>11474347
Get out of my thread kid, this is a safe space for TA fags, I specifically asked for their opinion.

> muh reddit

Yeah you're a real badass browsing biz

[Anonymous No.11474438]

>>11474356
>implying

>>11474381
i like mit biz with a decent lvl of intelligence. you and all the other ta idiots pulling that lvl down way too far tho

pls go. reddit even has a discord for ta. go there. dont come back.

[Anonymous No.11474496]

>>11474166
TA doesn't guarantee anything 100%, it just gives you probabilities. While you drew your trendlines horribly, the "out of the woods" situation would be in effect once the candle closes above the trendline. A daily candle would have more weight over a 4H or lower TF.

[Anonymous No.11474518]

>>11474496
even that is wrong. ta give you not a single advantage to anyone else. if it does anything it even lowers your returns by causing you to trade more and therefore paying more fees

[Anonymous No.11474571]

>>11474166
> Are we out of the woods?
No. Bulls need really to make a show of force to even consider that we are out of the woods.

[Anonymous No.11474645]

>>11474518
If you don't understand TA, which is the case for 95% of people, then yes, I agree. TA is not about drawing arbitrary lines or even about indicators. In fact, indicators are BS, Elliot Wave is BS, the concept of fibonacci ratios in financial markets is BS (although, its application could be useful), and many other things are indeed BS. But there's a very real, and very useful part of TA that does give you an edge. But I'm not here to try to convince you of anything, I'm totally OK if you think TA doesn't work.

>>11474166
If you want to apply traditional TA to the situation, I'd consider "out of the woods" after forming a higher high above 6800, and crossing above 7400 would be the confirmation.

[Anonymous No.11474654]

>>11474571
So far we are still in a descending triangle with lower highs and (more or less) continuous lows. With each rise, the bull power got less and less powerful.
On the other hand, there is a strong interest to buy in the $5800-6400 zone but these people are unwilling to do anything at higher prices. I will not trade this since it's to uncertain but things like this happen in oil, silver and coffee markets all the time.

My guess is that we will see some kind of pump to the $8000-13000 zone which ten pathetically fades out and collapses. (think easternf ront 1942 youtube.com/watch?v=pucJTYK7_Yo&t=9m6s )

[Anonymous No.11474705]

>>11474645
>If you don't understand TA, which is the case for 95% of people, then yes, I agree
first of all where is that number coming from? 95%. show me the study. doubt there is one. its just something you made up in your mind when you wrote the response istn it?

btw im currently doing my masters in finance and therefore happen to know my fair share about it.

also its not that i THINK that ta doesnt work its that research across the board concludes that. post me a peer reviewed paper that concludes that ta works. good luck finding one.

the ONLY part of ta that makes sense is the part where brokers or other institutions do it in order to get people to trade more. its a way of advertisement to increase their commission. and thats it

i mean i get that its tempting to believe it works. but in the end its garbage and just shows that you dont have a clue about finance

before you disagree. again its not that i think that. its that nobel price winner concluded that. so if you indeed disagree. where is your nobel price m8?

[Anonymous No.11474728]

>>11474571
This plz gibs but volume

[Anonymous No.11474752]

>>11474705
How could TA work across the board, it's a zero sum game?
That's like saying, "oh, training doesn't work, 9/10 athletes who trained for this race didn't win gold"

[Anonymous No.11474873]

TA is just a way for people to rationalize their guesses.

"It's going to go up because this line says so"

"Oh nevermind, it went down because I didn't read this other indicator right' DurRrRRRR

No retard, you just cant guess the market, thats it.

[Anonymous No.11474875]

>>11474645
Ok thanks. As you can see from the lines I drew I'm still trying to understand how this works (still regretting not selling in january and think basic TA knowledge could have saved me at the time, but thought it was bs).

So, there seems to be a consensus in this thread that only a higher high will mark the end of the downtrend. Does this mean that we cant just go sideways from here untill the next run? Does this mean that triangles are actually a meme and that I should only pay attention to vertical movements? If this is the case, I will always be a step behind the movements won't I?

[Anonymous No.11474895]

>>11474752
oh boy
what i meant with across the board is across all the universities that did studies on that

also find me one source that outperforms the market consistently by doing ta.

btw maybe this makes more sense for you... i have a feeling that we are probably done talking about academic research in any way. doubt you have read even a single paper on finance

but hey humor me this. if ta works in any way. woudnt banks use it then? how is it that banks do not do ta to make their decisions? because thats a fact. again i am doing my masters in finance and have worked in asset management, portfolio optimization as well as risk management

i probably didnt work in a real bank right?

[Anonymous No.11474903]

>>11474873
Bullshit, you can't be right 100% of the time but TA is way way better than just a 50/50 guess

[Anonymous No.11474942]

>>11474895
What makes you an expert on what banks use? You're some spotty undergrad lol just because you read a few papers doesn't make you an insider.

[Anonymous No.11475006]

>>11474942
did i say that?

i mean feel free to post ANYthing of a valid source that say the opposite. i doubt you can. no matter how much of a "spotty undergrad" you think i am. you are not arguing against me but against research of highly decorated academics

sounds quite arrogant. especially since we dont even know what your field of work is yet. do you even study? have you even an idea about basic finance?

also stop dodging my questions.

[Anonymous No.11475009]

>>11474895
I'm very much on your side of the argument.
Here are two things I wonder about though.

It's there not the chance that many individuals "see the same thing" in a chart?
Leading to some sort of self fulfilling prophecy?

What if you found that it works?
Would you publish it?

I guess I can answer the last part. People did publish successful models. But they are not based on TA.

[Anonymous No.11475064]

The stock market is a fractal, the meme triangles will continue to repeat on smaller and smaller scales

[Anonymous No.11475065]

>>11475006
>but against research of highly decorated academics
Do you not understand the concept that if you were to find a systematic edge in the market, publishing an academic paper about it would be just about the most retarded thing you could do?

[Anonymous No.11475108]

>>11475009
>It's there not the chance that many individuals "see the same thing" in a chart?
sure you can see patterns. we humans always do. we even see patterns in completely randomized stuff (clustering effect in behavioral finance). but its a never ending story due to anticipation. if you see patterns but know that others could see it too you might think its good to act ahead. but everybody can do that which leads to something you cannot calculate. and even if you recognize a pattern and it plays out. you never know the magnitude. markets have patterns indeed. pinpointing them before they happen is something you only manage to do by luck. afterwards its easy.

>Leading to some sort of self fulfilling prophecy?
same story with anticipation

>What if you found that it works?
i would doubt myself at first. too many good researchers concluded something different. if it was legit you would see me on the #1 spot of richest people since it would mean i can beat the market consistently and just scoop money nonstop

>Would you publish it?
ofc not

>>11475065
ofc i do understand that. but if someone would have such a systematic edge we probably would know about him quite soon since apparently he beats the market which is something NOBODY so far was able to do consistently. everybody who claimed that he did after a huge win got dismantled immediately as soon as data was shown. you seem to not understand the implications of having a systematic consistent strategy that beats the market.

[Anonymous No.11475112]

>>11475065
for a long time I thought so too.
Here is a counter example though:
https://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=3159690

From WSDM, a highly reputable CS conference.

[Anonymous No.11475176]

everyone is expecting a bullrun or going sideways because the triangle is closing and it has resisted going below ~$6k.
But I think we will see a sharp dip going past $6k which will cause the capitulation phase and people panic selling as we have crossed a strong resistance level.

[Anonymous No.11475179]

>>11475112
That's a really fun idea. Arguably in that instance the deep learning aspect is more interesting (and more lucrative?) than the application to markets.
Also, there is no reason to think that edge would last very long. Anons already spam biz with nonsense to disrupt news scraper bots. Whether it works or not, I think it points to deliberate news disruption being the outcome of wide use of that strategy.

[Anonymous No.11475300]

>>11474352
>You think there's enough fuel for that?
In last few days I started see like x30 more crypto advertising than usual, even more than during November-December
Also in social media another wave of newfags is getting interested, asking for exchanges and etc
Looks like a humble start of new cycle, new money getting in

[Anonymous No.11475434]

>>11474166
No, orderbooks are moving like molasses.

[Anonymous No.11475452]

>>11475179
some people say the cucumber tastes better pickled. i for one voted for santa claus, twice.

[Anonymous No.11475481]

>>11474166
doesn't matter where btc goes, the only smart move you can do right now is be in BTC cause alts are going to get rekt whether BTC takes a sharp turn up or down

[Anonymous No.11475487]

>>11474895
Banks do use TA though...

[Anonymous No.11475566]

>>11474705
You're correct in a lot of things, particularly in the institutional order blocks, which is a very crucial aspect of TA. I have actually read studies that show TA outperforms chance, and I've read studies that show the opposite. The problem about these studies is that it's very difficult to make an objective study of something that depends a lot in the interpretation of the analyst. It's very possible and quite often the case that the same chart could be read completely differently by different traders. Furthermore, TA by itself is useless, a good trader requires a good strategy and a better risk management plan, so I find it pretty hard to be able to come up with a study that can measure the efficacy of technical analysis. Also, it makes total sense that finance degrees in universities stand on the skeptical side of TA, that's what expected given the nature of TA and all the esoteric elements that are now associated with it. This does not completely debunks technical analysis. Lastly, I could say that anyone who has just looked at a chart has done TA, when you look and see the price is near ATH or ATL, and decides to buy or sell based on price history, you are basically performing an analysis. To say that TA doesn't work at all means that you shouldn't even look at a chart, is that the way you trade?

[Anonymous No.11475611]

>>11474166
>>Drawing a trend-line from the top of a correction to zero bar.
>>Not recognizing the correction and adjusting accordingly.
I think your TA is bad and you should feel bad.

[Anonymous No.11475810]

>>11474873

> Every Wall Street Billionaire respects TA
> Random 4chin incel thinks TA is just a guess

Hmmmm... who should I believe! HALP!

STAY POOR NIGGER ANON!

[Anonymous No.11475888]

>>11475810
>>Appeal to authority
>>I expect institutional money to tell me the truth.
This is why you're retarded.

[Anonymous No.11475955]

>>11474895

I used to work for one of the world’s largest banks a decade ago. Upper and middle management would constantly use TA to set daily, weekly, and monthly goals and targets for nearly everything we did, from investment decisions to forecasting profits and losses of each segment of our business.

I’m not saying it actually worked worth a damn. I’m just saying that we did it at that time and I know a lot of other banks did, too. Most of the analysis was spotty, at best, but it was used constantly.

[Anonymous No.11476172]

>>11475611
what the heck

[Anonymous No.11476697]

AAAAAAAAAA

[Anonymous No.11477088]

>>11474166
no
zoom out

[Anonymous No.11477109]

>>11474518
jokes on you bitmex pays me to trade

[Anonymous No.11477190]

>>11474225
stay poor

[Anonymous No.11477223]

>>11474705
>getting a meme degree
>thinks he knows how "science" works
>nobel price

[Anonymous No.11477236]

>>11474705
Your master in finance is meaningless. Academia is bearish on TA. Truth is, TA doesn't care if you like TA or not. TA doesn't really want you to like TA. TA needs dummies who don't use TA to hold and make stupid emotional decisions. TA is an idea that works because people play the game.

[Anonymous No.11477586]

>>11474645
> But there's a very real, and very useful part of TA that does give you an edge.

Spill it TA fren

[Anonymous No.11477926]

>>11477586
spill what? The truth is there. Stop expecting some reveal of mystical knowledge. It's called putting in effort to learn it.

[Anonymous No.11477950]

>>11477926
>But there's a very real, and very useful part of TA that does give you an edge
what is it

[Anonymous No.11478258]

>>11477950
people who don't know what it is