/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.11470912]

Every other Bitcoin bubble has dropped to about 20% of the peak price in the bear market following it
Back in 2014, many reasonable people were calling $400 "the floor".

This is why I believe Bitcoin will reach a low roughly somewhat above $4000

[Anonymous No.11470960]

>>11470912
you think this was the bubble? kek.

[Anonymous No.11470966]

>arbitrary meme lines rainbow edition

[Anonymous No.11470974]

go shill your rainbows on >>>/mlp/ or >>>/lgbt/

[Anonymous No.11470975]

>>11470966
say that with a russian accent please!

[Anonymous No.11470982]

>>11470912

[Anonymous No.11470985]

>>11470966
yeah these meme lines posted are always totally arbitrary and of course can be redrawn as needed.

[Anonymous No.11470997]

>>11470975
>arbitrary meme lines rainbow edition
ruski mode engaged
sounds better right

[Anonymous No.11471000]

i look at lines a predict the future pee poo pee

[Anonymous No.11471002]

>>11470966
They're not arbitrary by any means
We know this to sundry degrees of certainty
For example, I know with near 100% certainty that Bitcoin will not go to $100,000 tomorrow
And, yet that doesn't mean it won't go there SOMEtime
So in reality we trade within a rather narrow-spanning upper and lower bound, and from this we can guess with greater accuracy price ranges that are more and less likely than others

[Anonymous No.11471005]

>>11470912

This is the only TA anyone needs

[Anonymous No.11471009]

>>11470985
so basicly same amount of meme lines saying btc shit and btc moon, sideways cofirmed sold all my btc bought tsla

[Anonymous No.11471085]

>>11471009
it's just an example that you can draw them any way you like so they don't prove anything despite what the faggots that post them trying to make you believe. these lines posted on this board are basically psyops machinations nobody can see the future past performance is no indication of future price and ta doesn't work better than coin toss.

i personally prefer using math and playing clear immediate arbitrage running circles. but even that doesn't work on this dead fish market.

[Anonymous No.11471091]

[Anonymous No.11471281]

be your own judge

[Anonymous No.11471415]

>>11471085
The Volatility, which created the disparities between differing pairs on the same exchange, and between the same pairs on multiple exchanges (your arbitrage opportunities), was not, and is not Random.

Markets move in Trends/Waves/Cycles, whatever people want to call them. Moving averages do play an important role in determining where Market Participants step in to fight with each other to carry on a movement.

To think of TA as something where you backtest to calculate an approximate level of success, and then calculate an Expectancy from that, is not completely giving you its usefulness.

A Pullback, or a touching of some Level, is not something which can have their usefulness entirely measured by Quantitative measurements. TA provides a Market with Points of Contention/Battlegrounds.

These are points where Manipulation occurs, and where Speculators fight it out to dictate Price movement. There's no "sure thing" about it, in the moment.

Therefore, I believe it to be incorrect to say things like " TA is worse than a coin toss", it's not really something to be measured, in that sense.

If you were to ask me "Where should I buy bitcoin, based on TA?" I'd say: "I'd start to look for Long entries, on Lower Time Frames, once we begin Trending above the 20 SMA, on the Weekly, because this has shown to be Resistance area. I would look to manage the Trade based on the 200 SMA, on the Daily, as well as with using Market Structure".

And that probably sounds retardely vague to you. But, to me, as a Directional Speculator, I have to be loose, because I don't know the future. I can only react to the Present.

[Anonymous No.11471650]

Good thread keep posting

[Anonymous No.11472267]

>>11471415
>The Volatility, which created the disparities between differing pairs on the same exchange, and between the same pairs on multiple exchanges (your arbitrage opportunities), was not, and is not Random.
never said it was random it's just this fucking weekend stopped me dead. it's human greed and stupidity mostly. you can count on the masses to trade by feels panick and fomo and not use simple math. so long there is volume i can make money whether the price goes up or down. when volume is down like this it can break out suddenly and violently in any direction. which is why you should cash out wait and see by monday. making yourself believe a scenario in the short term and betting on it is just degenerate gambling. you can draw lines left and right but remember there are people out there with the explicit intent to fuck you in the ass and take your money if you follow common sense and logic.

[Anonymous No.11472538]

>>11471415
Should i post my preddictive model based on deribit+ledgerx options bought on the ask?

[Anonymous No.11472539]

>>11472267
>you can draw lines left and right but remember there are people out there with the explicit intent to fuck you in the ass and take your money if you follow common sense and logic.

I've already addressed that. And Stop Hunting and Momentum Ignition based strategies are present Markets, if wasn't HFTs doing it, it'd be Humans. To be deceiving is just part of Human Nature.

The criticisms of TA that I like listening to the most, besides thinking of my own, are from Order Book Scalpers like Gary Norden and John Grady. Norden has a youtube channel, and Grady has videos uploaded to places like the Jigsaw trading youtube channel/chat with traders.

Both of them absolutely hate all aspects of TA, so I try to understand why they do. I'm by no means an Order Book Scalping expert though.

Gary, who comes from a Market Making background, actually claims to trade against TA based retail traders (If I were to buy a course, it would be his, and I could do it with my earnings from technical trading). He points out that charts don't show how a Market "trades at each price", shit like how many contracts are bought or sold at each price. He also has a concept of "value", which he bases his limit order entries around (I believe), which doesn't require chart inputs. And he aims to trade withing the Spread.

Grady is Scalper, who likes to trade the treasury markets a lot. I believe he incorporates things like correlated market movement, and Order Book Momentum, into his Scalping decisions. He believes it's impossible to "predict" Markets over very short Time Frames.

Scalping strategies require a High Hit Rate, since those trades will make a couple Ticks profit, at most. Those guys know what they're doing, and are experienced as fuck.

I disagree with their opinions though, because despite all their experience, they're not actually regularly using TA (because they don't believe it works), but this means that they're opinion doesn't really impact my view of TA.

cont...

[Anonymous No.11472553]

>it went up this time so it will keep going up forever

[Anonymous No.11472566]

>>11472539
What folks who don't use TA regularly (even if they do "trade against" TA users) is that, it's more of a Discretionary Tool, it's not something that's hard and fast, which is what I tried to point out in my initial post.

It's not something that I, personally, need to work within a minute or two.

I don't want to go into specifics (mostly because I can't be fucked), but I pretty much have staggered entries, of differing sizes, based on differing Time Frames, within a given Market.

There are many ways to use TA, and they don't necessarily require being "right" immediately.

[Anonymous No.11472589]

>>11472538
Umm, okay?

[Anonymous No.11472639]

>>11472539
>He believes it's impossible to "predict" Markets over very short Time Frames
*over very LONG Time Frames (which to him would probably be over a few minutes)

[Anonymous No.11472657]

>>11471281
>the past will happen again even with our different context

[Anonymous No.11473303]

>>11470912
>implying flat 20% is the base after each bubble based on 2 previous instances.
>basing non existent pattern on insufficient data.
>concludes his mental *efford* is worth biz discussion

Monthly biz redpill:
The hand in control cannot unload all the bags as of yet thats why they keep price at 6k to simulate a market environment. Literally all crypto torn pocketed fags cant absorb these guys' sell order at 6k if they decide to sell which they wont. If they literally squeeze all long at 6k they eill not profit as much as if they have 2m of an asset that can go trans border and do some otjer business with.
Many whales tried to breach 6k by selling thousands of BTC and failed.
The BTC 6k support confirmed irrefutable at this moment.
Only when this guys decide it will go down it will and your memelines will prove right (Protip: there is incentive btc to be kept at no less than 6k), unless same guys decide it will go up again - then you will have to come up with new memelines to impress biz.

Next time advise why you think 20% happen. You drew some lines and shitposted. You didnt do work.
Whoe does biz think the 6k support people are?

[Anonymous No.11473517]

>>11473303
You dismiss his MEME lines to post a conspiracy theory about a group of elites who control the price.

[Anonymous No.11473561]

>>11470912
picrelated

[Anonymous No.11473581]

>>11471005
>data stops in 2014

[Anonymous No.11473606]

>>11470912
I knew I kept this image for a reason.

It's only gone more than 70% down from the top twice, and one of those times was a total flash crash. It's intellectually dishonest to say we're not near the bottom, if past performance is anything to base an opinion on (which is debatable, but it's the argument you're using).

[Anonymous No.11473624]

>>11473561
>OP suddenly has lost half his stack
>wonders why he is so poor

[Anonymous No.11473648]

>>11471091

[Anonymous No.11474338]

did anyone ever meet someone doing ta who wasnt a complete idiot who gets mesmerized by bro science like ta is?

intelligent people dont do ta