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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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10818346 No.10818346 [Reply] [Original]

Let's assume the year is 2025 and we have an $8T market cap (WEF survey estimate). What percentage of that will Chainlink control, and how many tokens will be in circulation?

Let's say 5%. I think that's a pretty reasonable number. NoLinkers will argue 1% or less, Linkers will argue 10% or more. At the end of the day Chainlink will allow legacy infrastructure to interact with things on the blockchain and allow for smart contracts to take inputs and outputs. I think we can all agree this is a very significant ability that will bring crypto towards mass adoption.

Let's also assume that there are now 500MM tokens in circulation. We honestly have no way of knowing how many there will actually be, but let's make it 50/50.

$8,000,000,000,000 * 0.05 = $400,000,000,000 / 500,000,000 = $800/LINK.

Now the $8T figure (10% of global GDP on the blockchain) proposed by the WEF is considered a rational valuation... what if we form another bubble before we reach that? This makes AB's $10T-20T target seem much more realistic. Obviously it won't last forever, but it will help us find what Chainlink could reach at a possible ATH. $800 * 1.25 = $1,000 & $800 * 2.5 = $2,000.

In summary: A reasonable estimate for Chainlink's price by 2025 is $800 per token with an ATH of $1,000 - $2,000. Run the numbers again using different figures if you wish, but I think I was being pretty fair. Even when using 1 billion tokens in this estimate, someone holding just 2,500 LINK would become a millionaire. Take a moment and multiply your stack by $800, $1000, $2000, heck even $400 if you want a worst-case scenario. Be sure to remember those numbers when you feel like selling early.

>> No.10818367

if smart contracts are adopted
a) the marketcap will be much bigger than 8T in 2025
b)chainlink will be much bigger than 5% of that cap

>> No.10818376
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10818376

>>10818346

>> No.10818385

>>10818346
nice

>> No.10818388

>>10818346
There won't be any LINK on exchanges by EOY 2018. The collateral requirements for high value contracts will create an insane amount of demand for the token on the Chainlink network.

$800 dollar Chainlink, even at the end of this year, would make it totally useless. The price needs to be in excess of $10k to even begin to handle the kind of high-value, data driven digital agreements that it was designed for.

>> No.10818397

>>10818388
kek

>> No.10818420

>>10818346
>Thinks everything on blockchain will be tokenized

>> No.10818486

Googolplex dollars EOY

>> No.10818514

>>10818367
Touché, chainlink can go much higher than 5%, but I wanted to stay realistic and grounded in my expectations. Personally, I think LINK can reach 10%+ of the market which would double this estimate

>> No.10818534

>>10818420
>Not understanding the tokenization of big data is what gets the big boys wet.

WHAT IF

WHAT IF YOU

WHAT IF YOU COULD TAKE YOUR OVERHEADS

THOSE OVERHEADS YOU HAVE AND TURN THEM INTO REVENUE

THE OVERHEADS YOU HAVE WOULD NOW BE A SOURCE OF REVENUE

SOFTWARE AS A SERVICE SELLING INFORMATION

THE OVERHEADS ARE GONE AND NOW REVENUE IS IN ITS PLACE

I WONDER IF COMPANIES WOULD WANT THAT

>> No.10818560

>>10818346
good thread

>> No.10818571

>>10818388
Keked and checked

>> No.10818700

>>10818534
:^)

>> No.10818714

Realistic, $400 minimum lmao.

>> No.10818750

>>10818534
THIS
THIS IS THE REAL APPEAL OF CHAINLINK

SMARTCONTRACTS ARE GREAT, REALLY

BUT HOW CAN YOU GET COMPANIES TO ACTUALLY USE THEM

WHAT IF YOU COULD ENGINEER A WAY TO GIVE COMPANIES A NEW REVENUE STREAM FOR VERY LITTLE COST

AND TO UTILIZE THAT REVENUE STREAM, THEY'D NEED OTHERS TO USE SMART CONTRACTS

SERGEY FIGURED OUT A WAY FOR THE BIGGEST COMPANIES ON EARTH TO SHILL HIS PROJECT FOR HIM AND BECOME EVEN MORE COMPETITIVE BY DOING IT

>> No.10818866

>>10818534
You are saying companies running nodes? Please explain.

>> No.10819343
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10819343

>>10818367

>if

>> No.10819415
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10819415

>>10818346
Good stuff OP, I arrived at the same price range. But who knows really, it all depends on adoption and how much of the supply gets locked up.

>> No.10819651

Tree fiddy EOY 2bh

>> No.10819830
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10819830

>>10819415
>DMT predictions
Kek

>> No.10820142

what % of the total MC is LINK now? is there a place I can check this without doing a bunch of adding and dividing?

>> No.10820147

>>10819343
I do not think there are any ifs unless you don't know the prospects of this technology

>> No.10820162

>>10820142
about 0.054%

>> No.10820520
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10820520

>>10818346

>> No.10821032

>>10820142
>what % of the total MC is LINK now? is there a place I can check this without doing a bunch of adding and dividing?
it's literally one number over another number
one division
i hope ur joke fren

>> No.10821372

I think minimum for LINK is the market cap Ethereum is at currently, so 7.5%.

>> No.10821385

>>10818346
I'll bite.

I'll assume, like you, by 2025 the market cap of crypto as a whole will be roughly $8T.

I think the percent of the market cap Chainlink will capture will be a bit above 5%, (which is roughly BCHs market cap, a shitcoin that does nothing). I think it's not unreasonable that a Chainlink with a finished main net could capture around 8% of the total crypto market cap as it serves a legitimate purpose and will most likely become the standard crypto oracle (see ZeppelinOS partnership, Openlaw partership, etc.). These partnerships will encourage others to use Chainlink thus making it standard. So for market cap capturing, 8%. Not a lot higher than your estimation, but enough to make a difference.

The amount of Chainlink you said would be in circulation is another point I disagree with. Out of the 1B tokens, it's safe to say roughly 35% are off the table forever because of company nodes, and I think it's also safe to assume roughly 25% will be staked. I assume this because only 22,500 wallets currently hold Chainlink, and it's obvious the majority of these wallets are owned by /biz/ and the Chainlink subreddits and I'm sure as hell a lot of these early adopters are going to want to stake some Link. These leaves around 40% of Chainlink tokens in circulation

$8,000,000,000,000 * 0.08 = $640,000,000,000 / 400,000,000 = $1,600/LINK

I can only hope I'm right.

>> No.10821424

>>10818346
AAAAAAAHHHHH I'LL BE SO OLD IN 2025

>> No.10821425

>>10821385
But it doesn't really matter, because $5000 EOY anyway

>> No.10821524
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10821524

>>10818346
At best we may see 13-15usd, that is with a realistic and generous market cap.

>> No.10822346
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10822346

>>10821424
>mfw I'll be 25 with 22.5k stinkies

>> No.10822422

>>10822346
I'll be 30 with 2,5k >:(

>> No.10822790

I'll be a 40 year old whatever the fuck with 56k

>> No.10822833

>>10822346
>>10822422
>>10822790
No amount of lambos will ever buy back the hours you wasted on this shithole