CHAINLINK MATH

[Anonymous No.10525755]

Hi /biz/,


Let's do some math to better understand Chainlink's potential. Let's help put the situation into perspective.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Math was completed when Chainlink was $0.332C
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MC = Market capitalization

If 10X MC = 1.16 BILLION $3.32
If 100X MC = 11 BILLION $33.20
If 1000X MC = 110 BILLION $332.0
If 3000X MC = 330 BILLION ~$1000
-------------------------------------------------------------------

MC for top 3 cryptos at their peaks last bullrun:

BTC 313 BILLION
XRP 140 BILLION
ETH 134 BILLION
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Is it really that hard to believe Chainlink will get to a 33- BILLION MC by EOY to make it $1000 EOY?

XRP has no product, ETH is generally useless and can't scale, and BTC has it's own problems though I will not knock the King in this thread.

Discuss.

[Anonymous No.10525788]

>>10525755
peak pajeet

[Anonymous No.10525799]

Market cap is a meme.

[Anonymous No.10525802]

Yes, it is really hard to believe.

/thread

[Anonymous No.10525813]

>>10525755
Look at where ETH got just off crypto smart contracts.
To this day ETH is a glorified token dispenser.

Now imagine what will happen to the crypto that delivers MAINSTREAM smart contracts.

[Anonymous No.10525849]

>>10525788

Checked but no.

>>10525799
Checked, elaborate.

>>10525802
Elaborate.

>>10525813
I agree. I unironically believe a singularity could occur in one day depending on the quality of businesses Chainlink is working with.

I could see them releasing 50 actual partnerships at once, all with legit businesses, not these Chinese """partnerships""".

[Anonymous No.10525930]

If eth isn't scalable and link uses eth (yeah it's agnostic but currently it's still using eth), what will that do to link? One of the few things that worry me about the project. Link is at least on xrps level.

[Anonymous No.10525961]

>>10525930

It's being considered by all parties I'm sure. ETH will be forced to scale or it will die and something new will take it's place.

I'm not sure how much of a drain Link will be on the ETH network during it's beginnings though.

[Anonymous No.10525977]

>>10525930
>If eth isn't scalable and link uses eth (yeah it's agnostic but currently it's still using eth), what will that do to link?
Almost nothing.
The only thing that is actually tied to ETH is the token traffic.

[Anonymous No.10526343]

this is what linkies consider analysis

[Anonymous No.10526447]

>>10526343
No alt coins have entered a real production environment yet. Yeah some mainnets are up but no one serious is using them. The first coin that secures real world users will blow everyone else out of the water. You can't even use the top 10 as a bench mark at that point because you'd be the first one to have nonspeculative influx of money enter your mcap.

[Anonymous No.10526495]

>>10526447
>nonspeculative influx of money enter your mcap
this is what linkies consider analysis

[Anonymous No.10526549]

>>10526495
He's right. Everything up to now has been fat sweaty nerds speculating fake money. An actual product that saves real companies money would be a legit new paradigm. You can try to guess at it but it's ultimately pointless. The only sure thing is that if you don't have a position in the first project with real world use, you're gonna be sorry,

[Anonymous No.10526560]

>>10525755

If only someone had made a chart looking at different mcap/price scenarios as a thought experiment

Thx for the “math completed” statement btw that’s a really nice touch? Your analysis is so in depth that it help to know what the price was st the time since we’re all going to be referring back to this helpful post again and again.

[Anonymous No.10526566]

The only link potential is the meme potential. It's an absolute shitcoin but it's ultimate demise will bring in more OC. Newfags are retarded this has always been about OC, all the oldfags are buying BTC and little else. Halvening is soon. Look at the alts that were supposed to be promising, all dead. LINK will be the same as BTC dominance increases.

[Anonymous No.10526574]

>>10525755

[Anonymous No.10526596]

>>10526495
nonspeculative money is precisely the kind of thing that will drive the singularity.

[Anonymous No.10526617]

>>10526574
TLDR;

LINK will equal $342,857 per token in the best scenario, and $91 in the absolute worst.

[Anonymous No.10526746]

>>10526617
A number in the middle would make the average holder billions... I think the number is enough for outsiders to call us deluded off the bat without regard to the technology... Sergey is the modern day Rockefeller

[Anonymous No.10526766]

>>10525755
1 trillion EOY

anything less is brainlet FUD

[Anonymous No.10526798]

>>10526746
Let's say that even the most deluded linkies were vastly underestimating what chainlink does and even poorfags who staked a couple hundred LINK are earning millions per year in staking and anons with 10k stacks are worth 100's of billions.

What does the world look like? What happens when most of the billionaires on earth are 4chan neets?

[Anonymous No.10526807]

>>10525755
>>10526549
>>10526574


Have you guys ever heard of prediction errors and how they can fuck you in the ass harder than you may imagine when your prediction goes into such complexity?

> An error rate can be measured. The measurement, in turn, will have an error rate. The measurement of the error rate will have an error rate. The measurement of the error rate will have an error rate. We can use the same argument by replacing "measurement" by "estimation" (say estimating the future value of an economic variable, the rainfall in Brazil, or the risk of a nuclear accident). What is called a regress argument by philosophers can be used to put some scrutiny on quantitative methods or risk and probability. The mere existence of such regress argument will lead to two different regimes, both leading to the necessity to raise the values of small probabilities, and one of them to the necessity to use power law distributions.


In other words, stop presuming you can figure out the future price by doing some math.
By MATH Factom should be way above 100$ now, ICN way above 20$.
So many people ran their crazy delusional math projections.
Saw them all fail, same here. Don't be a delusional linky desu.

[Anonymous No.10526810]

>>10526617
342k assuming no nodes have staked link 10x if 90% are staked. You're delusional if you think that much money will flow into link

[Anonymous No.10526825]

>>10526746
if you take the geometric mean of those numbers you get:

(90 x 24,000 x 342,000) cube rooted

= $9,000 per LINK

[Anonymous No.10526838]

>>10526807
>>10526810
see my post above, i.e. $9000 per LINK

[Anonymous No.10526888]

>>10526798
We finally gas the kikes race war now

[Anonymous No.10526908]

>>10525977
that's not really true. all the things that happen on chain will also be effected by smart contracts on ethereum. Of course, I don't think it's a problem because Ethereum will fix scalability, but while Chainlink is taking measures to do things off chain it still writes quite a bit to the blockchain other than the tokens.

[Anonymous No.10526922]

>>10526574
>$24,106/Link - - Jesus Christ, this sounds delusional

and 10% of 1.2. QUADTRILLION (10^15) or 1,200 Trillion, is $12,000,000,000,000

[Anonymous No.10526927]

>>10526888
TRIPS CONFIRM

LINK TO $300K+= holocaust 2.0

[Anonymous No.10526948]

>>10526810
Im not so sure that the act of staking will reduce the circulating supply noticably to have an effect on the price. It's a penalty deposit for jobs that you can withdraw once the job is done.

[Anonymous No.10526953]

>>10526927
This time we will really do what we’ve been accused of

[Anonymous No.10526961]

>>10526922
wait. its 120 trillion. 10% of 1,200 Trillion.

[Anonymous No.10526965]

here ill do the math for you guys 1 billion coins x 18$ puts it at a little above XRP

18 bil market cap

18 eoy

[Anonymous No.10526982]

>>10526922
>>10526927

Confirmed.

[Anonymous No.10526985]

>>10525930
off-chain computation

[Anonymous No.10527003]

>>10526948
Yes, but each job will require staked tokens for the duration of the contract. So you'll have hundreds of nodes (Rory said it will probably support up to 10k nodes) each staking tokens to dozens of jobs that they accept. The test contracts have lasted months and even two years in one case (though I think there will be the option to release tokens over time). This will be pretty significant. Add in tokens that are held on the node for reputation purposes and not staking, and I could easily see it being a number that puts pressure on the price upward.

[Anonymous No.10527007]

>>10526985

So why even use Chainlink at all? It's purpose is to provide these businesses access to the blockchain.

[Anonymous No.10527643]

>>10525755

2k linklet here.

So I'm going to become a millionaire?!

[Anonymous No.10528034]

>>10526908
The team said themselves 19k entities have expressed intetest in running nodes. Not everyone will be able to have 100% uptime on those nodes even assuming there is demand round the clock. This infographic assumes a cost of 1 cent per api request. If all 19k nodes are pulling 1k api requests per hour the cumulative yearly revenue of all nodes will be 1.6644 billion dollars or about 87600 dollars per node per year.

The market cap of johnson and johnson and amazon have market cap values 5 times higher than their yearly revenue for 2017. Since holding chainlink gives you the capability of making passive income the actual market cap may be closer to 10 times the total network revenue. Since chainlink's maximum yearly collective network revenue assuming 19k nodes for any year is 1.6644 billion then their market cap should be around 8.322 billion - 16.644 billion dollars when fully adopted. Since 350 million tokens are being given to big business likely 35% of the total supply will never sell making the max token circulating supply 650 million. This leads me to believe the maximum price per token with 19k nodes at 100% uptime will be between $12.8 and $23.78 dollars (5x) or between $25.61 and $47.56 (10x) depending on circulating supply. 350 million all the way up to 650 million.

You still need between 400 thousand to 750 thousand nodes (10x) or 800 thousand and 1.5 million nodes (5x) at 100% uptime before the price per link can ever hit $1000. Only 19k entities expressed interest in running a node. 1k is actually impossible.

This concerns me as half of link holders scream 1000 eoy when this can never happen.

[Anonymous No.10528066]

>>10525755
>>10526574

>>10526908
The team said themselves 19k entities have expressed intetest in running nodes. Not everyone will be able to have 100% uptime on those nodes even assuming there is demand round the clock. This infographic assumes a cost of 1 cent per api request. If all 19k nodes are pulling 1k api requests per hour the cumulative yearly revenue of all nodes will be 1.6644 billion dollars or about 87600 dollars per node per year.

The market cap of johnson and johnson and amazon have market cap values 5 times higher than their yearly revenue for 2017. Since holding chainlink gives you the capability of making passive income the actual market cap may be closer to 10 times the total network revenue. Since chainlink's maximum yearly collective network revenue assuming 19k nodes for any year is 1.6644 billion then their market cap should be around 8.322 billion - 16.644 billion dollars when fully adopted. Since 350 million tokens are being given to big business likely 35% of the total supply will never sell making the max token circulating supply 650 million. This leads me to believe the maximum price per token with 19k nodes at 100% uptime will be between $12.8 and $23.78 dollars (5x) or between $25.61 and $47.56 (10x) depending on circulating supply. 350 million all the way up to 650 million.

You still need between 400 thousand to 750 thousand nodes (10x) or 800 thousand and 1.5 million nodes (5x) at 100% uptime before the price per link can ever hit $1000. Only 19k entities expressed interest in running a node. 1k is actually impossible.

This concerns me as half of link holders scream 1000 eoy when this can never happen.

[Anonymous No.10528132]

>>10525755
>>10526574

The team said themselves 19k entities have expressed interest in running nodes. Not everyone will be able to have 100% uptime on those nodes even assuming there is demand round the clock. This infographic assumes a cost of 1 cent per api request. If all 19k nodes are pulling 1k api requests per hour the cumulative yearly revenue of all nodes will be 1.6644 billion dollars or about 87600 dollars per node per year.

The market cap of johnson and johnson and amazon have market cap values 5 times higher than their yearly revenue for 2017. Microsoft and google have market cap values 8 times higher than their yearly revenue for 2017. Since holding chainlink gives you the capability of making passive income the actual market cap may be closer to 10 times the total network revenue. Since chainlink's maximum yearly collective network revenue assuming 19k nodes for any year is 1.6644 billion then their market cap should be around 8.322 billion - 16.644 billion dollars when fully adopted. Since 350 million tokens are being given to big business likely 35% of the total supply will never sell making the max token circulating supply 650 million. This leads me to believe the maximum price per token with 19k nodes at 100% uptime will be between $12.8 and $23.78 dollars (5x) or between $25.61 and $47.56 (10x) depending on circulating supply. 350 million all the way up to 650 million.

You still need between 400 thousand to 750 thousand nodes (10x) or 800 thousand and 1.5 million nodes (5x) at 100% uptime before the price per link can ever hit $1000. Only 19k entities expressed interest in running a node. 1k is actually impossible.

This concerns me as half of link holders scream 1000 eoy when this can never happen.

[Anonymous No.10528221]

>>10528132
Nice fud. $1000 EOY

[Anonymous No.10528255]

>>10528221
its not fud retard. Every time someone makes a legit concern you idoits scream fud. Jesus fucking christ people are stupid

[Anonymous No.10528307]

>>10528255
>Trading with concerns

[Anonymous No.10528313]

>>10528221
You have no idea wtf i even wrote. Chainlink will likely need close to a million node operators running contracts full time before $1k per link can even happen. Ethereum can't even scale to supprt 10k nodes how will it support 1 million nodes ever?

[Anonymous No.10528321]

>>10525755
>BTC 313 BILLION
>XRP 140 BILLION
>ETH 134 BILLION
>comparing ETH token with established coins with massive industry recognition and development
It really hurt to read through these comments, fucking delusion all around

[Anonymous No.10528342]

>>10528313
We live in post logical world fren.

[Anonymous No.10528389]

>>10528255
It's as about as legitimate as your toilet seat on the street, my man pajeet. Your retart tier jew math doesn't scare me. Please for you to not be surviving monsoon season. Thank.

[Anonymous No.10528462]

>>10528389
>math is stupid

[Anonymous No.10528468]

>>10528132
Ripple is 17bn. How much money are they making right now?

[Anonymous No.10528486]

>>10526798
The ultimate red pill is when you realize that even if the most optimistic predictions come true, most on biz will sell long before that happens. With my current stack, that 340k would make my net worth over $20b. However, my net worth will hit $1m at just over $16/link. I'm all for getting rich, I don't need more than 500k to never have to work another day in my life. People will start selling once they can afford a house + a rental property with enough left over to take a world class vacation for a couple months. So I'd expect most of biz to sell somewhere between $5 and $10 to the business elites who can afford to buy our stacks at those prices.

The only thing that could change my prediction is staking. I will definitely cash out a bit to buy property, but if staking pays out 5%/year, link only has to be worth $10 for me to match my current income.

There's also the sheer amount of poor money in link rn. For the sake of argument, let's say the average linkie here has somewhere between 5 and 10k, or about $1.5k - $3k. We'd actually have to get singularity tier gains for these guys to make it. I don't think that's likely this year, so let's say the short to medium max price is $10. At that price, the average portfolio will be worth between 50 and 100k. That's nowhere near enough to never have to work another day and staking @ 5% is only a return of 2.5 to 5k. However, it is enough to put a down payment on a house and buy some nice things.

So I guess what I getting at is that very few of us will become plutocrats because most of our lives are shitty enough that selling sooner will be have a much bigger impact on the quality of our lives vs continuing to go to our mcjobs for another couple years waiting for 1k eoy when we have an easy out. On the bright side, everyone with more that $1k worth of link is going to make it if they're smart about what they do with it.

[Anonymous No.10528494]

>>10528255
Nice FUD
1k eoy

[Anonymous No.10528513]

>>10526798
most of them will spend it on twitch whorse and porn. Or do stupid shit and lose it

[Anonymous No.10528527]

>>10528486
>that 340k
yeah nah. Why are you lying online?

[Anonymous No.10528578]

>>10528527
340k/link was the best case scenario that someone posted previously itt. I don't think it's likely, but even if it is most of biz will sell long before that

[Anonymous No.10528581]

>>10528468
Xrp has a tps speed in the thousands and people would be sending huge sums of money across the network per node daily. Chainlink turns each api request into a seperate transaction and a single node will only receive up to 10 dollars per hour. Chainlink can't scale. Xrp on the other hand can scale and won't need 1 million+ nodes to have billions of dollars in assets flowing through it. Thats the difference.

[Anonymous No.10528613]

>>10528578
so you dont have 340k stack?

[Anonymous No.10528677]

>>10528613
No, I've got about 60k. 60k link @ $340k makes the $20b value I mentioned.

[Anonymous No.10528689]

>>10528677
oh my bad. i misunderstood what you were laying down. i only have about 18k. Im waiting for the next dip but i don't think its going below.30 again.

[Anonymous No.10528704]

>>10528581
>Up to 87k a year for a node

Holy fuck

[Anonymous No.10528781]

>>10525755
>Eth
>Useless

Welp, time to throw away all my Link since the platform I use to purchase and hold it is useless

[Anonymous No.10528793]

>>10528689
It's all good, brother. You can buy me a beer at the singularity party to make up for it. But I'd highly recommend you don't try to swing trade. The amount of link I've lost trying to time the market would make you vomit.

[Anonymous No.10528817]

>>10528221
I'm fine with $5 EOY. $1000 is a fever dream

[Anonymous No.10528824]

>>10528793
oh trust me im not. I was pussy and didnt go all in at certain times. Im glad now. Im just pumping cash in. what the deal with the party? is there a location?

[Anonymous No.10528840]

>>10526343
Why don't you analyze my scrotum you faggot

[Anonymous No.10528858]

>>10525849
>I could see them releasing 50 actual partnerships at once
that would be interesting to watch

[Anonymous No.10528929]

>>10528486
As someone that has 7.9k link, I have $6.5k sitting around in saving for a rainy day. You think it's worth converting to link or I should just sit on that stack? What sorta time we talking if it does take off>?

[Anonymous No.10528960]

>>10528929
that's my dilemma too. its a risk man.

[Anonymous No.10528962]

>>10528929
You either buy in now, or you will fomo in later with your money as soon as it hits 1$

[Anonymous No.10528979]

>>10528962
Hue, you say that I bought 5k of my stack when link was $1.13 haha

[Anonymous No.10529057]

>>10525849
market cap is a meme and means nothing.

what may seem normal for a market cap of something like a big cooperation or gold may not be comparable to something like a utility token.

What will seem like average now could be nothing compared to they numbers you will get when you just multiply the price times the supply.

you stupid nigger

[Anonymous No.10529127]

>>10529057
accidental reddit spacing.
never made a post on there in my life

[Anonymous No.10529172]

>>10528824
I assumed it'd be on one of our yachts. I'll host if no one wants to. Password is "my linky stays super stinky"
>>10528929
I'd say do it but only if you can pretend that that money doesn't exist for the next few years. No one can predict when this is going to take off, but I'd say it's possible to see $5 by eoy if main net comes out soon and some big players start using it. But development could go into 2019 if there's problems.

[Anonymous No.10529201]

>>10529172
I would not even be able to say that with a straight face.

[Anonymous No.10529215]

>>10529057
>market cap is a meme and means nothing.
Mc is like half a meme. It can go up billions without billions of fiat going into it, but the higher it is the more likely people are to sell which evens it out.

[Anonymous No.10529242]

>>10529215

Depends on how much hoarding is going on. With LINK being required for the network to function, the more adoption we see and the longer Chainlink is the primary oracle network, the more LINK will be pulled off the market and the more market cap will become meaningless.

[Anonymous No.10529244]

[Anonymous No.10529250]

>>10528929
depends how old you are? mid 20's or 40's makes a difference

[Anonymous No.10529264]

>>10529244
he is a fucking retard. did not even know what link was then claims that the oracle problem would be worth more than chainlink itself

[Anonymous No.10529279]

>>10528929

[Anonymous No.10529303]

E R C 2 0
R
C
2
0

S H I T C O I N

[Anonymous No.10529396]

>>10528929
Waiting til it hits 27c again before I pull another bag. Go in slowly anon

[Anonymous No.10529495]

>>10527643
No. 10k is the bare minimum to even have a chance.

[Anonymous No.10529546]

>>10529303
Wow nice digits

Oh wait

[Anonymous No.10529564]

>>10528132
Decent, reasonable math here anon. And to think people would be unhappy with these valuations....lmao. All of you pajeets with 1k LINK are seriously not going to make it. Save your MacDonald's paychecks and buy more LINK you poor fucks.

[Anonymous No.10529697]

>>10528486
Unironically 100k LINK checking in. I held ETH under $10 to over $1k without selling 1 ETH. LINK will likely go on an accelerated version of the same type of growth that Ether had. It will start relatively slow....then a 2017-like run will happen to LINK. This explosion for LINK will be in late 2019 or more likely 2020. Don't be a fool and sell LINK at $5-$10. This will be a $50-$100 coin in the next 5 years. Just fucking wait.

[Anonymous No.10529730]

It reeks of reddit in here. Please go home

[Anonymous No.10529774]

>>10525799
>that ID
New York Knicks Heil Hitler fuck.

[Anonymous No.10529841]

>>10525755

[Anonymous No.10529845]

>>10528255
They are trying to sell their bags, of course they are gonna come up with these fucked up maths to allure idiots who can't add two number together.

[Anonymous No.10529857]

>>10529841

[Anonymous No.10529866]

>>10529857

[Anonymous No.10529873]

>>10529845
>le sell their bags xDDD
Cringe

[Anonymous No.10529892]

>>10529866

[Anonymous No.10529907]

>>10529546
Yaeh, you too

[Anonymous No.10530080]

>>10529697
Yes and no. I agree with you about the potential for link and your timeline, but I think the quality of life gains I'll make by selling some early outweighs waiting.

[Anonymous No.10530163]

>>10528255
who cares about concerns?
i have 12500 Link and im just going to go live my life and see what happens.

[Anonymous No.10530957]

>>10529845
What i wrote wasn't fud. Its a legitimate valuation analysis and it suggests a major increase in the price of link if the network works and people use it but "my linky stays super stinky, $1k eoy" is a joke and actually not possible.