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9726806 No.9726806 [Reply] [Original]

Canada has a housing bubble that has already started to deflate after almost 15 years of home appreciation.
>https://www.curbed.com/2018/3/7/17085794/canada-housing-market-collapse
This trade war will raise the price of everything from cars to canned food. As people divert their expenditures to rising commodities mortgages, and the interest rates due to reset in 2019 Canada is going to be completely sodomized by this trade war. Trudeau will probably be out as PM and the next PM will toe the line and the trade war will end. NAFTA will probably be replaced by three unilateral agreements (USA-Canada, US-MExico, Canada-Mexico).

So, what is the best way to short Canada? How do we profit off this?

>> No.9726832

By doing legs.

>> No.9726842

>>9726806

Short TD Bank dumb fuck

>> No.9726901

>>9726842
Not a bad idea. The Bank of Canada is looking at two interest rate hikes this year and perhaps another in 2019. I'll need to follow them closely.
>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-29/bank-of-canada-may-already-be-one-and-done-td-s-cooper-says
Anything else? Do you think this trade war will defer or pause one of these rate hikes?

>> No.9726971

>>9726806
I think Trump is a genius. The current train of thought is that the natural unemployment is 5% and by pushing it down to 3.8% he's risking the bankers raising the interest rates to kill the economy; more male suicides and divorce rapes that way, plus money from charging usury to male taxnpayers..

The short term hurt of tarrifs may dampen unemployment or even take it to 5%. Bankers don't have an excuse to increase interest rates and we have leverage for our trade war. Trumps gained control of the supply of money by bypassing the Fed. Paying more for cars and beer on the sticker is far more favorable than the prime rates climbing.

We're going to rape our trade partners while getting a few scratches on our cheeks. OPEC broke Venezuela with low prices while they tried to over produce and put our companies out of business. We prevailed. Ditto for tarrifs.

>> No.9726992

>>9726971
I wonder who is next. China already lowered tariffs on automobiles and Trudeau is too much of a tosser to realize his posturing isn't going to work.

People think that Trump has a simple view of the world. It isn't simple, he has a FUNDAMENTAL understanding of the world, and especially trade.

>> No.9726995

>>9726806
>How do we profit off this?

My intention is to buy property right when the bubble pops and swoop in on severely discounted prices. All of my trading with crypto and meme weed stocks is focused on this goal. Take big risk and hopefully max profits so I'm in best position to capitalize when the time comes.

Another point in favor of the idea of Canadian housing crash is a recent increase in strict mortgage rules. Banks are doing that to minimize their risk but it also means it pushes a lot of buyers out of the market completely. Nobody buys prices gotta come down. It's also interesting to me how I see nothing but high priced condos (presale before construction complete is averaging $250k+ on these things) being built all over my city despite this. The people funding those new buildings will be in big trouble if the floor drops out from under them as I am anticipating.

>> No.9727006

>>9726995
How long are you going to wait to get close to the bottom? Are you Canadian? Do you have a legal structure that is beneficial to this kind of deal?

>> No.9727042

>>9727006

Yes I'm leaf. How long depends how the market moves in coming year or two. I want to buy property anyway whether it really does crash or not.

>> No.9727083

>>9726995
Hey, I threw all my money in crypto too as I realized the Canadian housing market was impossible to beat as a independent. What city are you talking about? Mississauga? And what numbers for a floor are you thinking? Or will these condos be abandoned all together? (Which I highly doubt)

>> No.9727132

>>9726806
Leaf fag here. I hope the entire Canadian economy crashes into a puddle of piss because of how much I despise the average Canadian. Can't wait to see the smug smirks wiped off their fucking faces when they lose their job and house. What they fucking deserve when they chose virtue signalling politicians instead of non-retarded ones. Hopefully Toronto gets hit the hardest.

>> No.9727158

>>9727132
Rakes don't discriminate. All leaves will dragged across the ground.

>> No.9727170

>>9727158
Nice dude. Right after you revolt against the US Fed. Oh wait

>> No.9727176

>>9726806
>"what a vagina"

>> No.9727221

The entire lower mainland (BC) has become fucking unaffordable for normal people. The bubble needs to be lanced immediately.

>> No.9727239

>>9726995
Never catch a falling knife.

>> No.9727253

>>9727170
You are Vietnamese-Candian, French-only speaking levels of retarded. Trumps out maneuvered the Fed with Tarrifs as a monetary policy and gained leverage over trade partners at the same time.

Rejoicing that your fellow countrymen, was well as you, are going to get rawed in the ass because you hate the smug look on their face is terrible logic.

>> No.9727267
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9727267

>>9727221
Bubble will pop no matter what but the trade war will have political implications and will make the recession deeper. Might be funny if Trump threatens new tarriffs in the middle of it.

Forgive me a cruel chuckle.

>> No.9727276

>>9727239
You can always long housing if you are young enough. And the bubble pop is the best time.

>> No.9727284

>>9727253
I don't give a fuck about them because of their stupid decisions and willingness to destroy this country so that they can virtue signal. You're expecting me to feel sympathy for non-producing lemmings that spend their lives drinking beer and watching hockey.

Also all of my money is in USD so I am set to benefit off of this. There's ways of playing political events without getting burned. Not only that, but most of my current customer base is in the US, I only take payment in USD, and the business I plan on launching this Summer will have ~95% of its customers in the US. I will probably benefit from a shit CAD and US tariffs more so than any Canadian or even American.

>> No.9727295

>>9727239
The difference between catching a falling knife and buying the dip is time horizons.

>> No.9727321
File: 616 KB, 1160x3292, 1525606912173.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
9727321

>>9727221
The ONLY reason the bubble exists is the fucking CENTRAL BANK printing money and pumping it into the housing market.

>> No.9727345

>>9726806
>bubble
>20 years of solid gains

thats not how bubbles work, sweetie

>> No.9727358

>>9727321
FRED is US but what ever. Banks were overleveraged. Home owners were over leveraged. The MACs help facilitate that. Home ownership was subsidized into a bubble and until we end socialized housing, health care, and education thing will keep on this way.

Either we take the vote from women or we limit the vote to those that are net positive in tax payments.

>> No.9727367

>>9727345
Read the article before you are a cunt.

>> No.9727391

>>9727367
I live in Canada.

Housing prices have been going up steadily for over 20 years now because there is an endless supply of rich chinks who want to move here because we have a clean natural environment and a stable democratic government. some trade war with the usa wont change that.

until millionaire chinks decide to stop immigrating to canada nothing will change

>> No.9727403

>>9727358
Military service and tax positive. Landownership is a proxy for the two.

>> No.9727439

Daily reminder: Australia is in the same position and the government will confiscate your savings to bailout banks

http://cecaust.com.au/releases/2018_02_16_Govt_APRA.html

>> No.9727449

>>9727403
I think having biological kids should be there too, maybe in place of military service.

>> No.9727464

>>9727439
>http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-09/trade-war-could-wipe-billions-from-australian-economy/9633176
Well prepare yourself for that to happen. This is hilarious as the trade war will tank Chinese investors/speculators in foreign housing markets.

>> No.9727479

>>9727464
Maybe Trump is going for the roundabout dick in China's ass. By crashing Canada and AUS, the Chinks stand to lose a lot of their wealth. And absolutely shockingly, Canadians and Australians are both throwing little fits of rage at not being able to afford homes, and it's not *totally* racist to suggest outright banning Chinese money in real estate.

This place is still fucked, though.

>> No.9727528

great news imo

I'mm looking to move to canada, how long till i can buy a home on discount their?

>> No.9727693

>>9727358
>and until we end socialized housing, health care, and education
we already have these things and they are terrible