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/biz/ - Business & Finance


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922420 No.922420 [Reply] [Original]

Aight /biz/, I want to invest about 12k in a lump sum. I was thinking of a Nasdaq-100 ETF. Looking at the chart it seems like the index is about to hit a 15-year high. I've heard conflicting opinions on this matter, some live and die by cost-averaging every investment, others claim lump sum investments always bring optimal ROI. What is your opinion? How can I stay relatively safe while raking in the dough ASAP?

>> No.922423

how old are you? if you are young, you should not be investing 15k in the stock market, because the returns will not be very good.

You'll have much higher returns if you invest the 15k in yourself so that you can earn more money, either by acquiring skills, tools, or other capital to start a business, or invest in main street in some way.

>> No.922432
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922432

>>922423
I'm 23. I should've specified I live in Europe, so tuition fees are of no concern to me. I go to university and it is basically free. My father is well off and I want to put our money to work instead of letting it rot on bank accounts where you won't even get enough interest to counter inflation. The money I want to invest in the stock market is surplus money, nothing I need to live/for my education.

>> No.922435 [DELETED] 

>>922423

don't listen to this retard.

not everyone has the entrepreneur gene.

if you just put 12k in an index fund and DON'T touch it for 40 years, it will be worth well over 500k thanks to this thing called compound interest.

Annualized S&P 500 Return (Dividends Reinvested) is an average 6.9% between 1914 and 2015. (And this was through 2 world wars, the great depression, vietnam wars, cold war, gulf wars to present).

>> No.922446

>>922435
Dont listen to this retard. You can pick historic bottoms and compare them to the current highs and extrapolate that out indefinitely. Or realize that investing in index funds at an all time high is probably not the best approach.

If you had put your money in the SP500 in 2000, you wouldnt have seen ANY returns until early 2013, THIRTEEN years later. 0% return over 13 years. But if you absolutely feel the unbearable need to take this terrible approach to investing, put in $1k now and DCA your way down.

>> No.922456
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>>922446
that's why you don't go in lump sum.

People have been saying "hurr stocks are overpriced" since 2011. Maybe they are, maybe they'll rise another 4 years. Thing is you don't know so you just invest every month.

Also for OP: NASDAQ is horribly diversified, go for something like MSCI World index, if you really only want US exposure go for S&P 500

>> No.922457

Determine your propensity for risk and calculate the E(r) for your web of possible investments. After this, invest in whichever scenario you've looked at which offers the risk/reward that you are looking for.

>> No.922459

Stock market will continue going up, but the currency the market is valued in will plummet when market realizes Fed can't raise rates. Janet Yellen almost threw up on stage when telling of how great the economy is. Negative interest rates are coming. Long gold.

>> No.922460

Just put the whole thing in XOM, OP. Ride the oil recovery, pull it out when XOM hits $100, then start DCAing into your ETF plan. Equity markets may be overpriced, but theres still deals to be had

>> No.922467

Gold is the worst investment that has ever existed. It has little intrinsic value and its only real use is to measure the fear of USD dropping. If you are actually scared of the USD dropping, be rationale. Go buy some timber land and grow 30 yr straight pines. Pay someone to manage it for you and in 30 years you will likely get 400%+ return on your money. (the + has to do with if you are clever with derivatives or not)

>> No.922468

>>922446
The numbers are certainly supporting what you are saying. I am well aware of this problem, which is why I made the thread. I do not want to end up like one of the poor shmucks who bought stocks in '00. What are my options if I still want to put my money to work? I don't believe in market timing, so just sitting around doing nothing feels like wasting time I could make money in.

>>922456
I dunno mang
https://pressroom.vanguard.com/content/nonindexed/7.23.2012_Dollar-cost_Averaging.pdf

I chose nasdaq because the annual returns looked delicious and heavily outperformed SP500. Would you say the diversification of the S&P 500 makes it more attractive looking into the future?

>>922457
I've pondered risk/reward, I have no problem taking risks. Still, I want to take calculated risks and not end up buying and having to wait until I have kids who go to school to see green.

>>922460
I don't trust myself with stocks which is why I want to stick to ETFs. Can't really go wrong with em

>> No.922470

>>922468
>dont trust myself with stocks
Do you know what ETFs are, m8?

>> No.922473
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922473

>>922468
>>922446
Forgot the image. Past developments aren't supposed to be indicators for future ones, but it looks like we have a very distinct trend here and shit is about to come crashing down

>>922470
Index funds m8. I trust myself with choosing nice stock indices, but not with selecting single stocks. You can hardly go wrong with shit like the MSCI world or S&P 500. Except for buying at a high, which is why I made the thread seeking help.

>> No.922478

>>922473
Well, I offered you a solution. I dont know what youre worried about with ExxonMobil. They arent going bankrupt. Put your money in, pull it out in 2017 and you should make a nice 25% return. Pop it in an ETF at that point if you must. Or start DCA at historic highs. You be the judge

>> No.922480

What the hell do you think a crash in the market is? Just a cyclical readjustment? A crash happens when an underlying assets risk is improperly accessed and it is used as a backing to debt. Eventually this debt is leveraged and then the asset turns up toxic. This makes the derivative structures based on the debt crash. When this happens, the market has to reset, thus the drop. This process can not be predicted using technical analysis.

>> No.922482
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>>922420
May I suggest 300% S&P bull ?

>> No.922667

>>922482
My face when I have put options on SPY

>> No.922675
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922675

>>922667
Don't worry anon, many of us do.