/biz/ - Business & Finance

bump

Will the market be green this week?

>>9021811
It is Sat you useless cog
Make the thread on Mon

>>9021829
They're still market movements and news

>>9021824
God willing. Started buying calls yesterday afternoon after the umteenth drop.

>>9021829
bump

Is freetrade.io a good alternative for european traders? it looks like robinhood for eu fags

Give me some low beta stocks to invest in.

>>9022841
the stock market is currently in one the most volatile periods it's ever been in, and you're trying to focus on low beta

not gonna happen

>>9022861
>the stock market is currently in one the most volatile periods it's ever been in
That's the reason I want low beta stocks. I don't want to get fucked as hard when the next recession hits.

>>9022889
I think what the anon tried to say is that beta means shit in these current situation

^_^

Me did maths !
Me found out my stock trades have averaged expecting of 1.9%!

That means me formulate me amazingly strategically!!

Me just sell stock when it hit 1.9% gains >:D
Literally impossible for me to lose money XD!!!!!

>>9022930
oh ok.

>>9022889
there's no risk of recession currently, don't confuse the stock market with the economy

the market is in a new paradigm of volatility due to the ever increasing presence of algo trading, which sometimes react to market movements in extreme ways, such as pulling large amounts of orders very quickly, causing prices to plummet

stocks more or less move together in instances which those sorts of events occur, this is has always been the case, but it's worse these days due to larger amounts of ETF based trading and things like index arbitrage - both of leading to greater convergence in general stock price movements

either be in the market on don't, or maybe invest with a longer time horizon in mind

>>9023027
Makes sense.

Thoughts on U.S. Steel (X) heading into earnings on 4/26? I have a small position I'm looking to close, got a limit order in at $40.00. Is that too optimistic?

Bump

>>9023027
>>9023055
ETFs are sure making price reaction extreme but I don't think they are cause for a massive crash.

It seems to me Trump and the FED are trying to deleverage the economy without causing too much pain (=recession). That is why while rates are being raised (less borrowing, more savings, necessity for companies to perform better to generate ROI>interest rates), the government is spending more to generate business and keep up the revenue levels (=people and companies' earnings) and cutting taxes (=encourage reinvestments and enhance productivity which in turn, should curb the effect of inflation ; inflation is only a problem when productivity doesn't follow).

Of course, all of the above implies that the money actually stays inside the USA (the goal is to encourage savings and thus investments). That is why Trump enacts his trade barriers (the US trade deficit is huge and really, China is a country full of cheaters and scammers).

All that should translate into sluggish growth and a sideway market, which is really the best scenario possible after the mess made by the Magic Negro.

A crash generally happens when suddenly people and institutions realize they are far less wealthy in reality than on papers (assets mispricing). And suddenly all the leveraging unwinds and causes a crash.

Currently, some anons here think there are shenanigans in the US and EU banks (especially Deutsche Bank) balance sheets. EU banks' balance sheets are rotten to the core thanks to the niggers of the EU (Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal) whose loans are mispriced and unlikely to be repaid. The US banks are hiding a massive amount of neo-subprime mortgage and loans.

But in the case of the US banks, I highly doubt that a crash would happen again with the same cause because once a flaw is discovered, it will be monitored like mad by a whole bunch of high-iq individuals. A crash comes from a cause that NOBODY has seen.

>tldr : buy the dips sell the rallies

>>9023105
Do you have an exit price target for X ? What is your objective or the catalyst you are expecting for this stock ? What is the future earning expectation of Wall Street for X ? Does this expectation look sensible to you ?

For example, I am looking into OHI for its dividends. And I intend to sell covered calls against it while collecting the dividends. Currently, I am trying to figure out why the market is pricing it at its 52 weeks low with no trend for it to go up.

>>9023992
I want to fuck anime girls

>>9024172
Liquidating a deceased relative's IRA, just trying to predict if it'll pump leading up to earnings and I can eek out some modest gainz for the heirs.

>>9024110
those are fundamental ideas for certain movements, it's important to be aware of actual reasons for movements. Limit orders can dry up extremely quickly these days due to algo activity, the resulting lack of liquidity causes prices to plummet, but sure, the initial set of events which led to that happening may have been started by a fund dumping for whatever reason.

index arbitrage includes looking for discrepancies between the futures market and the actual stock market indices. It also includes statistical arbitrage which focuses on discrepancies between the stocks of an index. These methods have become more prevalent. It's not simply the market being "overvalued".

things move based on supply and demand, reactions to those movements are changing.

its saturday you butts

trade crypto or go enjoy your weekend

bull market resumes monday morning

>>9024398
My condolences

But those should be the questions you'd be asking. And as for X, I haven't done research on it (._.)
Take a look at Earning Whispers to see the market expectations

>>9024455

>>9024419
Thank you for your insights

I believe I am more of the Buffett-sama type (although with a 2-digit iq brain ). But it is always interesting to learn moar about the macro and quantitative/technical sides of the market.

As for your arbitrage thing, I try to picture myself an example. I guess it involves a lot of math and calculations but here is how I understand it :
Let's take SP500. It is easy to imagine that FANG stocks are the stars and are overbought. So an arbitrage would be to short the FANG and go long the rest (especially the smaller cap companies).

amidoingitrite or am I hopelessly retarded ?

>>9021829
Bump

>>9024730
im not hating on fundamentals, it's just shitty that this is type of market we now have to deal with, and I think more people need to be aware of what's unfortunately going on (although these probably aren't the only things)

as an example for statistical arbitrage, imagine Apple dumps on bad earnings (or good earnings, in this fucking market), it has a very large weighting in the SP500 due it's market capitalization. You could then short stocks which tend to have a strong correlation with Apple. Many people/funds do this, resulting in what could be unrelated stocks/sectors moving downward as well

>>9024730
your example is also used in statistical arbitrage methods, it's referred to as being market neutral or long/short

I have to say, /smg/ folks are pretty good at sniffing out solid high-dividend stocks.

>>9024908
>>9024969
Thank you so much

I find that in this market, investors are either enthusiastic or pessimistic about a stock. In the first case, strong and untealistic expectations are priced in and dumps happen in earnings because guidance and/or the beat is not good enough
When they are pessimistic, stocks ate shorted to death and any good or less worse news pop the stocks

>>9022861
You can't be for real. The volatility is low. You are just used to 10 VIX. I think a lot of people will lose globs of money in 40-50 VIX. Not a spike but if VIX stays there for a few months. Everyone is so used to buying dips and fading down moves, the move down will be priceless. Like a 6 sigma gap one day followed by another 3 sigma will wipe out 80% of people trading now. And it happens in high VIX environment a lot. You just have to live through one of those periods to make a lot of money. It used to be old traders only showed up for those.

>>9026410
The market is so messed up right now. Volatility is low, volume is low. It's like all the investors are just waiting for disaster.

>>9025923
They're pretty easy to find.

>>9027410
Realized vol is high. VIX is just too low. Somebody is holding options down. When they rip, and with this, they will rip, there will be a lot of short vol strategies in pain.

You have to remember this. Short vol strategy makes money 90%+ times. It's those under 10% of the times people wipe out. There hasn't been a wipe out in a while, everyone is short vol one way or another. It's still very low. Options are very cheap.

If the dollar starts to hyperinflate; will stocks crash "upward?"

>>9028322
The amount per stock will go up, but it's still gonna be worth the same.

>>9028376

What point will the bulls realize the truth?

And the bears?

Up isn't much better than down at this point. Everyone on the globe is dumping the dollar.

>>9028424
>Everyone on the globe is dumping the dollar
Not really.

>>9026410
VIX was extremely low. But we've been seeing many hundreds of points in movements in the dow regularly these past few months. And it's had several of its worst point drops in history, solely within 2018. It's not simply due to VIX. There structural differences in the market that have not been heavily present in the past.

>>9029004
The point drops are irrelevant. I haven't seen big moves down in a loong time. There was literally 2 or 3 days recently. That's not even on the level of 2011. Those faded instantly. The problem becomes when the move is not faded. That is coming soon. These are tremors.

>>9029484
Point movements are what occur as a result of what happens in the order book. During significant drops, it becomes quite clear that techniques like spoofing are used to encourage further downward movement, as well algos reacting to downward momentum much faster than humans could in the past. It's not something solely derived from what VIX is doing.

The reasons why movements are currently faded is because stocks are fundamentally sound, if they fall on a percentage basis you foresee, they will become extremely undervalued. What could trigger that is likely to be purely driven by something geopolitical.

>tfw think for a moment i'll learn something in /smg/
>instead discover it's zerohedge addicts and armchair 4chan ""investors"" that haven't even graduated to /wsb/

life is suffering ;_;

>>9029747
zerohedge always wants a crash, I certainly don't, because there's just no reason for it right now, other than people thinking stocks are expensive on a price basis, but they're not also focusing on things like P/E

If they did, they'd understand why the market is where it is

I... I don't know what to say anons. I love this thread.

I'm new to /biz/. I have been wandering around for like 2 weeks, and all the crypto threads made me think /biz/ had nothing of value to say. But reading this thread, there has been more reasonable discussion than in all the crypto threads I've been following combined. Hell, I didn't think this kind of discourse happened anywhere on 4chan, and I've been here for more years than I care to admit.

I'll go back to lurking now, and just learn what I can from /smg/.

>>9030005
General threads, dude.
There's also /agdg/ (amateur game development general) on /vg/ which has decently intelligent people.
Before /smg/, there was /rgt/ and before that was forex and investing general.

>>9029747
Some people on here know their shit.
teh_profit is pretty smart and has been collecting resources at pic related.
I think the people that know lots of shit about straddles and spreads come out while the market is open.

>>9029787
>there's just no reason for it right now, other than people thinking stocks are expensive on a price basis
This.
What's the fucking alternative?
Bonds? Real estate? Fuck that.

>>9030452
What sorts of resources?

>>9029673
Undervalued on what metric? I haven't really seen anything that can be bought on reasonable metrics. Even value shit that I have is silly expensive. Stocks are not cheap. They are not silly expensive, but they are not cheap by far. Nothing is cheap to justify buying for reasonable risk. You have to do convoluted mental gymnastics to see upside in this. A lot of cheapness has to do with free money and zero interest rates. VZ and T don't even survive normal interest rates. How is that cheap? I see some relative value cheap stuff, but it's not cheap and can drop 60% easily. People don't understand what risk is and stocks are risk. The stock can drop 80% on no news if some holder unloads. You didn't see it in a while because most stocks are held by indexes now. But stocks are not cheap. Saying some cyclical stock is low P/E is not cheap. In fact, you see low P/E on cyclical stock is a scary thing. it means the cycle is on the top. Any meaningful change in interest rates higher and a lot, and I mean a lot of companies are insolvent.

>>9030510
Volatility spiked due to bond yields upticking in February with inflation concerns (and the Fed being potentially more hawkish), it absolutely destroyed all upward momentum, even though it was faded. Then came the other geopolitical events further taking away from momentum. The market is directly reacting to interest rate concerns, and low interest rates certainly played a role in where indices are now.

A simple way to show what I mean by P/E is to look at the SP500 P/E, based on trailing 12 months reported earnings

http://www.multpl.com/

It's been much higher in the recent past. However, I by no means put faith solely in fundamentals because I understand the reality that markets are just supply and demand, which is driven purely by sentiment.

>>9030484
PDFs, books, just general sources of knowledge and reading materials.
It's hosted on 8ch

>>9024110
>A crash comes from a cause that NOBODY has seen.
That is why we have to get past August/Sept/October before making optimistic statements like
>I highly doubt that a crash would happen again

Checking in

>>9030510
>Saying some cyclical stock is low P/E is not cheap. In fact, you see low P/E on cyclical stock is a scary thing. it means the cycle is on the top.
I think you have that backwards.
High P/E means the stock price is high relative to EPS.

Fundamentals are fucked. Every halfass analyst knows it.

Plus the way Bitfinex constructed their USD counterfeiting system is impossible to shut down.

>>9030699
Well, if we're going to do that

>>9030740
>Fundamentals are fucked
P/E is too high? Yup. But where the fuck else will people put their money?
>Plus the way Bitfinex constructed their USD counterfeiting system is impossible to shut down.
>Tether
Yeah, but that's pretty contained to the crypto market.

>>9030740
>>9030773
>USD counterfeiting system

The fuck are you guys talking about?

>>9030902
It's literally nothing.
There's a cryptofag conspiracy theory that a cryptocurrency called Tether, which is backed/created by bitfinex, is in some way being used as fake USD and is being used to pump up the value of Bitcoin somehow. They believe that bitfinex is basically just printing off USD with this currency called Tether.
Regardless of whether it's even true, it has zero impact outside of the crypto world.
I have no idea why he even brought it up.

>>9030467
Yup. They are all in a bubble. Mining stocks look promising for a medium and long term investment though.

>>9031108
>They are all in a bubble.
Well, I think they're certainly expensive, but I don't think they'll halve or anything like that.
There's no underlying issue like an imminent credit market collapse, as long as the yield curve doesn't invert.

>>9031166
i would say overpriced rather then expensive. Especially when you consider stock price to earning ratio and all these visionary meme companies like tesla. Whilst I do agree that we aren't in imminent danger from something specific, we are in much worse shape to weather it. Savings at all time low. Consumer spending fuelled by credit. and how do would you stimulate an economy when interest rates are already low.

>>9025923
Share the goods :^)

>>9031069
Must be somebody from /r/buttcoin who dropped into the wrong thread.

Wisconsinfag. My dumbfuck friends told me to invest in crypto than stocks. Is crypto even legal here?

>>9032053
stop """investing""" in crypto

>>9032053
Yes, crypto is legal. However, it's a fad that is completely useless in the real world.

should I buy facebook?

>>9032100
I'd personally stay away from any stocks that a purely internet based.

>Thursday night/Friday morning before sleep put a limit on CRON for 7.25
>feel the bear before markets open and pull it
>fridays low was 7.25
I'm confident it will still go down but I feel like I'm tricking myself

>>9024455
Strategies for the week?

Im planning to separate 1000 USD and invest it in the US market, 500 USD in a blue chip and 500 USD in penny stocks which I really havent decided on.
Any of you guys knowledgable about FB, Microsoft, Amazon financials? Those are my options pre-earnings. Its FOMO, but its not big money so I would like to start with something simple.

>>9032100
Literally just had a controversy about how they make money and now will have to switch to an inferior way of making money. All the while bleeding users. It's dead, Jim.