/biz/ - Business & Finance

I hope it goes back up

t. Albertan

Oil is going nowhere for the foreseeable future.

I bought in a week ago hoping for a bounce. I'm selling when it gets to around $53 and staying out until I see more shale companies going bankrupt or if the EIA shows 2 bullish inventory reports.

The Saudis won't keep it down forever.

>>826991
What a day. Jut blew by historical resistance around $49.

What next?

>>827492
Sit back and laugh at the people who flushed out.

>>826991
I'm getting back in the game. Hoping we start the uphill climb again, I'll sell at 51 or 53 like >>827441 thinks.

Cave painting related.

Fundamentals ain't changed. Rigs and inventories keep going up.

>>826991
http://www.conferencecalltranscripts.org/no/summary/?id=1859836

Am I reading this shit right?

Are they about to offer 600,000,000 shares?

>>826991
after iran deal and sanctions getting lifted, oil will crash

Bought 50 shares in RDSB.

HAVE MERCY OIL GODS

>>827737
Someone who knows how to read a prospectus, pls

The Saudi's are upping production and flooding the market with oil to hurt the russian economy and the U.S shale production. It wont last forever. Maybe when ISIS sabotages production or Syria topples over will see an increase in price.

>>826991
>Saudis upping supply
>Iran sanctions being lifted will increase supply
>massive oversupply in America and Canada already

I don't see oil hitting above $70 a barrel for at least a year. I'm sure it will have some recoveries like the first half of 2015, but the fundamentals are simply pointing to a massive oversupply.

>>827795
they're not so much trying to hurt the russians as looking out for their own self interest. With india and china coming fully online as industrial nations they are trying to seize as much of the southeast asian market share as possible.
America however is definitely trying to hurt the russians whose economy requires approximately 50$ oil to function. Several countries exist solely b/c of the high price of oil. Venezuela I believe is counting on 80$ oil along w/ many other central asian countries. either way shit's going down. The data coming off texas and Norcar is suggesting that the most generous estimates for supply in NA were way short of the mark. it does not seem like things are looking good for anything but shorting

>>826991
>SDRL
>those valuations

Holy shit, they are practically giving the company away.

it'll go up
then a major sell off will happen again

I agree with t boone pickens. $70 wti by year end.

Sdrl was too risky and I was tempted on BP, but they have too much legal crap. So I have been buying xom.

>Bought Inverse WTI ETF at 52
>Kept adding on to it when it was going up
>Doing everything i'm not suppose to (not diversifying, leveraging) eventually lowered my break even at 50
>At one point i was down 30%
>Ready to sacrifice my soul to the oil gods, but knew Allah would not forsaken me

Thank you Based Allah, i promise from now on i will invest the right way.

Seismic exploration stocks are beyond kill. Dwsn and ion are all that are left, and circling the drain. Exploration was an easy budget to cut.

When Iran sanctions are lifted they're predicted to add another million barrels a day to the market.
Not to mention all energy is cheap right now, uranium, coal, LNG. Uranium is the only play I see with upside potential right now. Stay out of oil unless you have really deep pockets and can withstand 25% losses for the next couple of years.

"it must come up at least in a year" It's already been a year. Oil glut is the worst we've ever seen. Don't be a moron. That being said I'm buying at the first sign of a dead cat bounce.

We've been cucked.

http://oilandenergyinvestor.com/2015/07/opec-shorts-are-driving-down-the-price-of-oil/

>>827588
Holy shit this chart is awful. I really hope nobody actually thinks oil will get down to ~20.

Here's a proper chart. There is going to be support at $45. It will probably bounce off there unless Saudi Arabia gets invaded by the Reapers. Whether or not it goes below 45 is a matter of chance. My money's on it not going below since it didn't break that level a few months ago when it had significant momentum.

If it does drop below 45, the next level of major support is $34. I am almost certain it wouldn't go below that unless Ragnarok is upon us. 34 was the low point in 2009, and that was with over a decade of overbought conditions, a global economic meltdown, and HUGE momentum all happened at the same time.

If it ends the day just above $45 I'll put some cash into UWTI for the possible uptick. If it shatters that support I'll switch the money to USO. Oil can remain relatively low for a while, but it can't stay THAT low for longer than a few months at most. In the era of fracking, cost of production is too high.

But wait, there's more! Iran is about to FLOOD the market with oil. 15$ a barrel because fuck the USA , that's why. This is about to be a shitty winter

>>828063
To borrow a quote from Cramer in the movie iron man:
>that's a dividend company that doesn't have a dividend

>>830175
Already priced in. What do you think started this?

Been a while since the last oil thread.

>>830191 OPEC production quotas around the end of q3 last year. The market is preparing for iran currently. The entire Caspian sea area is about to play chicken in the next 6-9 months. Russia and Iran will start the fire sale

>>830248
I guess I'll have to wait for a bounce and gtfo. You think this will see $52 soon?

>>830296
There is a chance it will, but I wouldn't hold out too long

>>830145
>going to be support

You have no idea what support is.

I want to invest in Royal Dutch Shell.
Do I buy the A or B shares?

>>826991
Oil consumption vs production is going down. This trend will continue if the following two conditions are met. China continues to slow and the Iran deal goes through. Specifically Iran will be legally allowed to sell on the world market and they can produce a lot of oil. The Saudi's will most likely respond by also increasing production. It's seems this one small fact escapes most peoples attention. Regardless of the cost of production, even now the USA is producing more oil than Saudi's and I can assure you the Saudi's have enough money to keep this up for at least another five years. Geopolitics and oil are impossible to separate. The Canadians are well aware of this obviously. There are tanks filled with oil sitting off shore filled to the brim so don't forget to pad any stockpile estimates you make. Also remember laws regarding vehicle fuel consumption are still being phased in so check into those as well. Auto sales in China have tanked. They are in much worse shape than anyone seems to realize and it's getting worse. However they have the same advantage Russia does, they can do whatever they want.

Unless you want to spend a lot of time doing a lot of research the best shortcut to figuring out what is going on in China is by looking at the variance between what China claims it is exporting and what Honk Kong reports it's importing because the numbers never match and they should. Xi is the most powerful Chinese leader since Moa and Vlad the most powerful since Stalin. It looks like something bad is in the pipe(line). Keep in mind one more thing. Those oceans where clean and smelled good when I was a kid and they teamed with life. I could see the mountains from my back porch (though it wasn't Sarahs and they weren't in Russia) and the air didn't stink. Water tasted pretty good back then took. But I am old as dirt so what do I know.

;)

>>830593
B.

I did the other week, mind you. I have 100 shares now but they've lost 4% this week. I'm not sure when they'll come up, but macroeconomic indicators suggest it's going to be quite a long time.

>>830591

>You have no idea what support is.

People like you are cancer. You remind me of a professor I had in a circuits class who verbally admonished me when I said "voltage through the system" instead of "voltage ACROSS the system".

If you're too dumb to understand what I meant, let me rephrase: If oil continues to go down, it will hit support at $45.

Again, if it reaches that level soon, it wouldn't be a bad idea to have a short-term bullish position on oil as the price will most likely correct a bit.

Bump

>>826991
One thing is certain, SDRL has (right now) a newer fleet than RIG. Bad news is that this oil rape might go on for another year. OPEC hasn't blinked.

Protip: the future value of oil is zero in 12 years

>>832055
Why?

Thorium? Fusion? A combination of better battery technology, more efficient wind/solar/hydro that eliminates the need for oil?

About 2 months back i bought Seadrill for 109 NOK and doubled my position at 100 NOK.
How fucked am i? And how long will it take until I'm no longer fucked?

>>832488
Hope, they get acquired.

>>828063
please do elaborate

Oil (WTI) is headed to its prior low around $43/bbl. The break under $49.69 was a signal to the swing traders to shoot for the March low. But all the fucking Europussies wouldn't sell until the Iranian deal got traction and the Saudis decided to tell everyone that they ain't even mad and will continue to pump as the rig count increases and stored oil volumes increase in tanks and in ships loading it every day. Goldman predicted a $35 some months back based on Iranian inputs and North Dakota will increase soon.

TL;DR: Don't try to catch a falling knife. Also, West Texas Intermediate is referred to as WTI, not "TI" as some cheese eating investment bankers write.

The Brent support at the Jan lows got shattered. I stand by my earlier cave painting.

46 handle.
My diesel bill is $20,000 a month. I feel fucking great.

This is a fucking tragedy. I sold everything and jumped into DWTI. I'll be pissed if the current trend reverses.

The oil supply is finite and will become rare in 50 years or so with the current consumption. That's why we are moving towards different energies. You gotta understand 50 years in technology in current times is a very long time and from the scientific growth that we're having right now, other types of energy can easily take over the world by then even if it might not seem like it at the moment. You will experience the Oil collapse in this lifetime. As long as you're gonna pull out within the next few years go ahead but oil won't have a drastic rise anymore. It will be much safer to invest your money in other places.

I forgot to mention, the only hope you may have right now is for Iran to go to war with the west (HIGHLY UNLIKELY). The main reason is if that happens, Iran will simply close the Strait of Hormuz and that will cut off the majority of worlds oil supply (even if it is blocked for just a day).In this case, oil will go up like it never has in history and if you invested in it you will make an insane amount of profit. But I am pretty sure the war will never happen since the US does not want to face the drastic consequences. You can keep hoping though, since this is one the most likely things out of all the other things that may make oil go up eventhough it won't happen.

>>832488
You are fucked for a long, long time. Let's just pretend that OPEC weren't being cunts right now. Every rig company overbuilt for future exploration and still had existing rigs in there fleet. transoceanic as been scrapping at record level and still is doing write downs. You should have gotten out when the dividend rumors were circulating - at that point it's a lost cause no matter what industry you are in.

Commodities are down, I feel another market crash is coming. What should shorting etfs should we be in? I'm looking at small cap.

>>833009
>The oil supply is finite

>>833024

>at that point it's a lost cause no matter what industry you are in.

Seriously this statement can't be understated. When the price of oil is low newer tech isn't competitive. Less people bother with solar panels and less utilities bother with nuclear power. Sub $80 oil wrecked the nuclear industry as now everyone's into natural gas.

The only question is how long the glut will last. Five years of sub $80/barrel oil doesn't seem out of the question at this point unless something catostrophic happens. Of course, this isn't even taking into account the fact that when Yellen raises interest rates later this year consumer spending (and thus, oil demand) will drop like a lead brick.

>>833024

>at that point it's a lost cause no matter what industry you are in.

Seriously this can't be understated. When the price of oil is low newer tech isn't competitive. Less people bother with solar panels and less utilities bother with nuclear power. Sub $80 oil wrecked the nuclear industry as now everyone's into natural gas.

The only question is how long the glut will last. Five years of sub $80/barrel oil doesn't seem out of the question at this point unless something catostrophic happens. Of course, this isn't even taking into account the fact that when Yellen raises interest rates later this year consumer spending (and thus, oil demand) will drop like a lead brick.

>>833024
After i started investing in august, i was up 13%. Now I'm down 5%.
I have 20,3% of my money that i can invest without it affecting my life in Seadrill. Another 16,7% in Shell. That's the only oil related things i have. So i will just sit it out.