/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>798665
apparently human trafficking is big in Italy right now

Probably too late, but you could buy dollars and dump euros or just buy us or other companies that trade in us dollars. Like bp cause the oil trade is in dollars.

>>798671
Did it a month ago.
>mfw Greece

>>798674
what did you do exactly ? gimme details

>>798675
moved my euros to various other currencies.

>>798678
DETAILS! what currencies ? and why ?

Are there any charts I could watch out for the collapse?

>>798681
Well, one of them was the Singaporean dollar, because I thought- crude oil price dropping and Singapore being a huge refinery, means it will be good times for them.

Also Australian dollar, because, well, clock spider is a stable investment. And their economy isn't so tied to Europe.

A little in the US dollar, because why not.

To me, a smart move would be buying euro stocks. Everyone was awaiting for Grexit anyway.

European QE is still running and no private eurobanks are holding greek denbt. The EU as a collective can manage the incoming crisis this time.

Euro won't skyrocket as well as it won't plummet that hard.

>>798688
>buying euro stocks
but with the coming crisis, wouldn't the value decrease ?

>>798688
This is sort of my plan. At the bottom of the crisis, I'll reconvert my foreign currencies back to Euros, then hopefully gain some profit after the Euro value goes up again as German fighter-bombers strafe the Acropolis.

>>798691
Greek stocks will take a huge dip. Also, companies exposed somewhat somehow to Greece. German , dutch and french equities can be labeled as safe compared to greek, spanish, italian and portuguese equities.

European fixed income just serve as a safe investment but not for profit.

>>798696
I'm dutch and I don't know shit about investing. please explain to me what I should do with my saved money.

>>798694
>Euro value goes up again as German fighter-bombers strafe the Acropolis
We can only dream

>>798698
Have you tried to document yourself about the dutch equities market? There must be a bunch of companies whose equities could give a positive return.

Going with currencies right now is speculative, I'd not recommend it.

>>798707
>Have you tried to document yourself about the dutch equities market?
I haven't, can you point me in the right direction ?

>>798698
Shell is dutch isn't it? Oil's back on the rise.

>>798707
Shell, Hal Trust, Unilever, TKH are all very stable dutch companies with very consistent dividends. And if you live in Europe buying mostly local products you will barely notice a devaluation of the euro anyways except during holidays. Eur/usd was 1.40 not long ago and went under 1.10 a few months ago. The impact on every day life was around 0.

The greek stuff has been going on for years now. No outcome will have a huge shock effect. If greece leaves the eurozone i expect a eurostoxx 600 drop of maybe 3-5% which will recover over a few weeks as investors realize greece leaving the eu really doesnt matter that much.

just sit back, relax and enjoy yourself while you still can since its nearly impossible to predict the economic impact of this bullshit anyway.

>>798715
see >>798726

Good time to buy gold?

>>798766
Gold have been bearish. You can bet on it.

>>798768
Is that a yes?

I don't get the price of gold anyway, I thought it was supposed to reflect confidence in other investments. I.e. when shit hits the fan people move their money into gold. But throughout this whole 'Greece is fucked' thing - gold has been going down.

>>798771
You've just said it.
Greece is fucked
Not the EU nor the USA

The euro will take a dip, but I don't think this is a big concern except for those who do business with Americans or perhaps the Chinese.

But the profit margins on chinese imports are already so obscene, and americans don't really make anything but junk food franchises and pop culture. But I'm pretty sure that Starbucks mugs, dildoes, girl jeans and Macbooks are already made in China.

Within the EU, certain imports will become more expensive, but there may also be a rise in exports due to the weaker euro benefiting the local economies. When people buy more than usual, thinking they're getting a good deal, they often overestimate how good of a deal it is and consume more than they usually do, so a weak euro export spike is likely to be good for business here.

The EU is too useful to fail.
Absolute worst case scenario: Italy, Spain Portugal and the Easterners are ejected.

Core of Scandinavia, Germany, Austria, Low Countries, France, and the British isles remain.

I'm not sure Italy belongs in that worst case scenario. The north is pretty rich.

In any case, the worst case scenario is not going to happen.

>>798805
Thing is that its Draghis plan after all to lower the value of the euro to increase competitiveness. If tossing out greece out of the eurozone helps us reach this goal faster then why not. Might allow us to stop our QE madness a year earlier than planned.

>>798814
It will stop next year anyway

If ECB wants QE why don't they monetize the debt? Print money and buy up the non-performing assets of Greece.

>>798665

EU =/ European Monetary Union

If grexit happens (which is now likelier than ever) it will crash Greek economy, but the rest of the eurozone probably won't have a dip in the short term, this isn't 2013. If drakma gets reintroduced it'll start falling down in value, so it can be a good chance to buy cheap land from Greece if you are interested in tourism business, which benefits from low value local currency.

Now for the long term, the euro might become more volatile. EMU wasn't designed to let anything exit, so if one member does, it sets an example that it's possible. So in the long term stocks on companies located in EMU nations can lose value because of this.

>>798805
I'm curious (and ignorant). What makes you believe France and Scandinavia would stay in? They are doing pretty bad with their debt too.

>>798665
Bitcoin

>>799082
Because they are civilised.
Their economies involve more than liquoring up British proles, and, I don't know, goat's cheese?

shemitah year nations rise and fall on this year if they fall 7years bad luck

>>799082
>doing pretty bad with their debt too.
Swedefag here. Don't mix us in with the French.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt

>>799693
holy cow why is japan doing so terribly these days?

>>798805
> low countries
lol, netherlands

>>798698
Buy tulips.

>>798805
>I'm not sure Italy belongs in that worst case scenario. The north is pretty rich.
Having to carry the south on their back, yes, the north is fucked too.

wut, pic related
>https://twitter.com/rConflictNews/status/615238664638078976/

>>799099
Uh, France civilized? How about no?

>>799710
And yet Japan didn't implode.
The market can stay insane longer than you can stay solvent.

>>799907
IT BEGINS.

I thought greece leaving the eurozone would increase eur/usd because they are now losing a huge liability and therefore becoming more valuable

> mfw hearing the term "the coming financial crisis".


Oooo. I'm shaking in my boots. Internet geniuses like Gerald Celente are shitting themselves right now. Pissing their thread-bearing underpants in nervous anticipation of a Black Monday. Yes, I think I will move all my remaining money into gold, AK-47s, bulletproof vests and a shit-load of tinfoil. Lots of fucking tinfoil. So much tinfoil, in fact, I run the risk of getting struck by lightning during the sunniest of days outside my cardboard shack.

Would you transfer and exchange Euro to Japanese Yen at this moment in time?

Am moving there shortly and until not too long ago 1€ = 138¥, idk if I should transfer it all over already or wait.

>>799907
Time to buy.

ok... german here. I plan to buy a house next week on friday (long planned). will there be a change in the yield? Nothing has been signed yet

I have no stocks, but my mother does.

Stocks of foreign companies though, but traded on the German stock market in Euros.

Should she sell those stocks on Monday in the morning before it is too late?

>>800122
Yes.

>>800110
Fixed income yields might even go down since everyone and their mother will look for refuge there.

>>800122
It is already too late.

>>798665
stay in cash until the market collapses then buy the dip

China is already dipping, but then it was a massive and obvious bubble so I'm not sure how influential this is.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#{"allowChartStacking":true}

>>800134
Fuck

I am sorry mother, I am an useless manchild with 0 knowledge and can't even save your money.

;_;

Mfw. automated trading system left me on friday with leverage 1.94 in US equities.

Obama better kick some ass.

The EU isn't gonna collapse just by greece exiting.
Perhaps if Spain or Portugal followed, then Italy or France would probably be next in line and the union would disintegrate.

>>798668

I'm Italian and lolwut.

>>800164

Well that will probably only happen if Greece doesn't go to complete shit right now. Which might be the case if Varoufakis was right and the people of Greece were being screwed over by the big jews of the central bank (which is not completely unlikely),

However I think them jews won't lay of off Greece even if they do leave the EU, at least in part for that reason. So yeah Greece is most likely fucked.

Wouldn't even surprise me that much if ISIS suddenly started blowing up tourists on the beaches of the Greek islands sometime soon,

>>799905
>Having to carry the south on their back, yes, the north is fucked too.

I'm not into this,let me say this,I live in south Italy -> Sardinia for the mummy masses, island is a good honeypot for tourism but both Alitalia, Tirrenia and Moby are coming up with crazy ticket prices around 900€ boat or airplane.

If you don't come here with a good GPS or a preplanned trip you pretty much screwed as all the good spots are in a fucking unknown places with little to zero road signs.

Mentality here is " we don't want/need anything"

Wind farms?

>We don't want them cause muh goat's wasteland

the one we have outside our hometown doesn't have a big eye impact,so are many others placed here and there and don't have more than 30 wind turbines and are scattered around a square of 15 to 20 km

Photovoltaic system

>We don't want them cause muh goat's wasteland

Everyone and their mother's have photovoltaic panels in their rooftops

Geothermal Power Station

>We don't want them cause muh goat's wasteland,muh water,muh pollution

MFW

Nuclear power plant

>muh ***

and they are freaking right about this even if I would like to have Zone 2.0 in the neighborhood

Military bases and target ranges

>muh DU cause my soon was stupid enough to drink water taken from a well or to jump into a target that was hit with DU rounds

Last year a marker caused a wildfire on the terrain inside Capo Frasca range,freaking NO BASE and Grillini did a stupid manifestation and went inside the base, they started to shout DU for everything, told them that those were just training bombs made of concrete and they treated me like a terrorist.
Then they started to bitch about chem trails too, entire base kekked

A military ship landed at Cagliari docks, delivered around three M-109 and their related supporting vehicles.

Again those effin pacifists went nuts,nearly caused a riot and police had to seal the docks and escort said vehicles to their base

They don't fucking want anything

>>799909
Im sorry, what? I was asking why Japan is doing so bad right now. I mean I know that Sony and the jap game industry is in decline but I didnt know that the nation as a whole was doing bad.

>>800204

in truth they want something

mine parks to be restored as they were during fascism

Basically 70% of those facilities are relics, terrain is friable, surrounding areas anything but safe as on the ground ventilation holes are still opened and the safety measures they took 20 years ago for sealing them are now rusting away under the sun.

It will take tons of money and work to restore them and 80% of the tourists will pretty much ignore them as they are in hard to reach places and once again surrounding area is not so safe, nor someone even managed to map those ventilation holes or badly sealed tunnels,going there it's like having a trip to Pripyat and exploring the zone without a Geiger counter

And this is just for Sardinia, Sicily and the remaning south shit holes are far worse cause the mafia and corrupted politicians are everywhere

>>800139
>stay in cash until the market collapses then buy the dip
stay in what ? what do you mean, buy dollars now ?

>>799901
nice one lol

>>798665

EU is not about to collapse. EU will be fine, Greece will be fucked. EU has several very strong countries in it that have done what they need to to have strong economies. EU has several other countries that are on their way to becoming strong countries. EU will be fine. Greece will be fucked.

>>798805
>manufacturing is the only important thing in the economy

>>800211
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-28/japan-mulls-almost-suicidal-squeeze-on-growing-band-of-seniors

>>800242
whatever currency you use to buy shares

>>799901
Top kek

Only real investment history fags will get this

I work in financial planning among pretty big keynesian loyalists. My boss came back from a seminar on Friday and was freaking out.

Apparently the whole industry from advisers, accountants, BDMs and Insurance guys are shitting themselves over Greece and China right now.

They're so convinced that Australia is fucked that today my boss has decided it's too late to change the asset allocation for any of our clients.

Instead he's going to contact every client to apologise and convince them to try and weather the storm but he's preparing for the business to go under.

I certainly hope something big happens, even though my job will be gone with the markets.

>>799901

dat bubble

>>798805
not gonna happen yet...
European culture in general couldn't support itself indefinitely, let alone all the muslim immigrants. If shit doesn't hit the fan now, it will within the decade

>>800286
>They're so convinced that Australia is fucked

Why?

>>800305
Something about Greece causing a dead cat bounce to a new floor lower than the previous GFC and Australia being in a shit position and tied to China.

>>800286
>he's preparing for the business to go under

Why would it go under? Did he put 50% of client assets in China, Greece, and Australia or something?

And yeah, Australia and China didn't have their bubbles pop in 2008-2009 because of China's massive debt-fueled stimulus, so obviously Australia will follow China into the abyss once a crash actually hits.

>>799092
Good one goy.

>>799693
Sweden, Yes!
How are all those Muslim immigrants treating you?

BUY ALL THE MEEMCOINZ

invest in doomsday preparing?

>>800339
We deal with managed funds and Superannuation where clients are heavily invested in levereged Australian and International shares. People losing their super = us losing our trailing commissions = 1/3+ of the revenue base at jeopardy.

He wanted to swap everyone straight to cash but they all think it's too late to do that. (Ie. It'll take most of the week to change the asset allocation and it will be happening by then).

I just find it interesting because these guys are die hard keynesian optimists, just interesting to watch fear take hold across the entire industry.

I saw a webinar a few months ago from MLC where they outlined global economic scenarios and their worst case scenarios are: Greek bank run and hard landing of the Chinese economy.

We'll see.....

>>798805
>The EU is too useful to fail.
The EU cannot survive as a currency union without full financial union. If Germany will not guarantee Greek et. al. debt, it is inherently unworkable and everything is bandaids. There is zero chance of Germany guaranteeing anybody else's debt after this, so the EU is already dead.

Greece itself is very small but the shills were demanding Germany stick its neck out, and now it's very obvious that they were wise not to. They will not do it for Italy, France, etc., so there is no union.

>>800286
nice hedging program
seriously anyone unprepared for this deserves to go under it was so fucking obvious greece would run out of money and China would run out of margin trading capacity

1. Change your savings to USD
2. Get a visa to any of these countries: America, Australia, Canada, Chile or New Zealand. They have strong enough natural resources and sovereign wealth funds to survive
3. Get on a plane to the country of your choice

>>800453
>die hard keynesian optimists

It's more that Keynes is hard to adopt in practice, while there are a fuckload of ways to mess up Keynesian prescriptions. Most importantly, no one ever follows Keynes's prescription to moderate the growth phase to prevent/alleviate bubbles with contractionary policy until it's too late, since no politician wants to spoil the fun during a boom.

China was never going to keep growing forever without a painful adjustment after all the debt it accrued. No country in history has had a massive unbalanced growth phase and then managed to avoid the crunch time. My guess is that the best-case "soft landing" for China is going to look like Japan's Lost Decade. The really interesting aspect is the danger to political stability, since the CCP's legitimacy comes from economic growth.

>>799723
He means Netherlands/Belgium/Luxembourg.

Saying the Benelux would make more sense though yes.

>>800122
No. She should buy more on the dip. Do that every single time as long as QE keeps going. Make money.

>>800286
No we're not shitting ourselves. Only 2 of my 300 clients called this morning and those were old people with a defensive portfolio.

Everyone here is calm and confident. Futures were down almost 10% at some point and now it's less than 3%. No one really cares as European investors have returns between 10 and 20% this year.

All we did was give back the profits we made in the last few weeks. No big deal.

>>800635
>All we did was give back the profits we made in the last few weeks.
if you saw the dip coming what would you have done

>>800666
I bought a very limited amount of puts for those clients who panicked last week. They're about status quo now on their entire portfolio. Rest lost a few %.

Still only 3 out of 300 have called. Only 1 of them actually liquidated all but 100k (few million). They left 100k as it's the minimum to keep their account open.

>>800678
I think a few calling is irrelevant at this early stage because they haven't lost their portfolios yet. I don't think people are saying that a one day dip is the problem come and gone.

If people lose a chunk of their Super this and next week and hear "GFC" on the news then they'll freak out. (the average investor/wage earner I mean)

>>799926
there are other unstable countries in the Eurozone. If greece leaves that will lead to a (in theory) downward spiral of other poor countries also leaving. One leaving, ok, many leaving, destruction.

breaking:

http://www.businessinsider.com/report-greece-wont-pay-the-imf-on-tuesday-2015-6

http://www.wsj.com/articles/european-union-prepares-for-potential-fallout-from-greek-bank-shutdown-1435573213

greek banks already on holiday and capital controls have been implemented (as in max withdrawals are 60 Euro/day

happening?

>>800204

That mentality is now prominent in most of Italy unfortunately.

Grillo is a fucking nut and always talks about things he doesn't understand.
Watching him talk about scientific matters is painful.

3 years ago we lost our last chance to go nuclear.
Sad to think in the 60s and 70s we had one of the most powerful nuclear power generation industries in the world.
From 1964 to 1966, we had the most powerful nuclear plant in the world, the Enrico Fermi.
Ran like clockwork up to 1987, too.

Then Chernobyl happened and everyone went batshit insane.
It's estimated that pulling out of nuclear has already cost us over 50 billion euros, and that's not counting lost revenue due to energy intensive businesses which never opened.
Thanks a fucking lot, USSR.

Anyway, since we didn't begin rebuilding 3 years ago, by the time another referendum comes back around it will be too late, even if we say yes.

In 20 years time it will be too late to go fission, too early to go fusion, and just a shitty fucking time to be burning fossil fuels like we're doing at the moment.

We'll just be in a shitty situation.
We might as well go full solar like the nutters keep shouting, at least there will be nobody hindering progress on that.
It may even push us to develop some groundbreaking energy storage technology to sell to the world for big bucks.

I wouldn't worry about it.

>>800453
>I just find it interesting because these guys are die hard keynesian optimists, just interesting to watch fear take hold across the entire industry.

Learn from this experience. Keynesian here myself. The thing that even Keynes couldn't predict was that the Germans, having been burned by inflation, would forget that they're now playing the role of France after WW1: by insisting that Greece pay back an unpayable debt, they ensure that hard-left movements like Syriza and hard-right movements like Golden Dawn get traction.

Nobody really cares about whether Greece burns, what people care about is whether it spreads to Spain and Italy. If I'm wrong on that, and I could well be, correct me!

Australia's kind of in a hard spot - commodity economy, and as the Euro drops, the USD rises, and commodities which are priced in USD drop. That sux for Aussie shares. But I do think that however the next week plays out, as long as the contagion is contained to Greece, everything's going to be OK.

This isn't a time to relax. But it isn't a time to panic either. It's a time to observe and learn. Good luck, Anon, and good luck to your co-workers.

The debt crisis in Greece is only a manifestation of a much greater geopolitical game being played out in southern Europe and the Balkans. The EU is not acting independently and neither are the troika in putting a relentless squeeze on Greece. They have increased the pressure in recent months for several important reasons that Australian commentators fail (or refuse) to see. They are linked to other geopolitical developments in Europe and elsewhere.

The Greek situation is impossible. Having more of the same will not solve the problems that go back at least as far as the Goldman Sachs engineered rigging of the books that allowed Greece into the Eurozone in the first place.

The Greek situation got a whole lot worse very quickly when the US ploy in the Ukraine to control the transit of Russian gas was circumvented by Russia, first with South Stream, and when the EU did the American bidding to block that, by doing a deal with Turkey and Greece for a new Balkan stream. All of a sudden there is an upsurge of colour revolution type unrest in Macedonia (on the new Balkan route) and terrorist activity emanating from Albania.

The troika and the US do not like the growing relationship between Greece and Russia, and the debt squeeze is aimed at part in getting rid of Tsipras. The referendum was a masterstroke in finessing that ploy.

I suggest that the referendum will pass, Greece will exit the eurozone, and that Greece will then come under the protective umbrella of BRICS and the new BRICS bank. BRICS and the SCO are meeting in Ufa in two weeks time. Assistance for the Greeks will be only one of a number of significant developments coming out of those meetings. Just don’t rely on the western media to tell you anything about it.

>>801785
Also other things commentators here in Australia I've noticed have ignored (and largely commentators in the EU and US as well). I mentioned the gas pipelines, an aspect that is almost completely ignored by our media. I should also have noted that the money “lent” to Greece never went near Greece, but in fact was mostly paid to European banks (especially French and German) to stop them going under. I could also have mentioned that the so-called reluctance of Greeks to pay tax is in fact the tax avoidance by the Greek 1%. The former Greek government did nothing, zero, zip, to respond to Largarde’s list of Greek billionaires hiding funds in offshore accounts.Apart from Russia’s interest via the pipelines, there is also a Chinese factor that I didn’t mention. The Chinese Prime Minister Li Kequiang is going to Europe this week where he will announce the formation of a reconstruction fund for Europe of 315 billion Euros. Even in these inflated times that is serious money. The promise of that fund is the likely reason that Germany, France, the UK, Switzerland et al signed up to the AIIB..

Also missing from the Oz and wider western business pages was the announcement that the Chinese government is going to allow the investment of Chinese citizen’s private savings to be invested abroad. That is the more than tidy sum of $21 trillion.

This week the economic center of gravity will shift from west to east.

>>800286
>They're so convinced that Australia is fucked

They didn't shit themselves when the LNP won power with literally no policies apart from turn back all progress and diversification in the Australian economy and rely entirely on Mining and Chinese Growth?

Whoever wins the next election will be given a poison chalice.

>>801785
>>801787

>The troika and the US do not like the growing relationship between Greece and Russia

No, the US doesn't. But if push comes to shove we'll just put troops in Greece again after staging another coup. Remember that Greece was ruled by a US-backed junta until the late 80s. But, the US doesn't give a shit about Greece's denbts. All we care about is them being too friendly with Putin. However Greece is a NATO member and it would take a lot for them to dump the free protection they get, in exchange for questionable Russian support. If they dump the west, then they get sanctions and their economy won't be allowed to recover under the Drachma. Meanwhile the Ukraine conflict is at a standstill and will likely end divided between the US and Russian sides. Which, in the end would be a US victory as they'd be able to put troops very close to Moscow.

>This week the economic center of gravity will shift from west to east.

China's stock market (specifically their NASDAQ equivalent) is down 10% this week because their government is trying to get margin buying under control. Their DJI equivalent is down 30% since last year while their growth slows to 3-4% yearly, or just under the rate of inflation. They're also a net food importer with zero power projection beyond their borders. They don't have several air bases in europe nor do they have naval ships in southeast asia or africa running patrols against pirates. And as for Russia, the slowing global economy has dumped the price of oil destroying their currency's value. Point is, you're wrong in regards to the BRICS/China.

>>798665
For perspective, Greece's shrunken economy is about the same size as Louisiana's and less than 2% of Europe's.

>>801785
Man, you are... I won't say dumb, but you lean towards grammatically correct word salad.

You believe that hammering Greece was an EU ploy to conquer them?
Despite the obvious fact that the way to keep them under EU sway was to bail them out and accept it as the price tag?

You believe that the EU was so eager to accept an enormous liability in 2001 that they themselves cooked Greece's books? At a time when Russia was a complete shambles and not in the least attractive to Greece as an ally?

You really believe that conquering an easily defended former Russian territory with a warm water port was mainly a noble Russian attempt to defend itself against an American plot of some kind? I'm sure Putin accepted the public worship it got him with mild embarrassment. "Aw shucks," says Putin. "Just doing my job against imperialism, folks!"
It did intimidate Ukraine, and I'm sure that would be beneficial for Russian pipelines, but to call the conquest of Crimea "circumventing an american ploy" is just plain delusional.

Several important Peruvian commentators agree with me.
However, the Luxembourgeois still have their head in the sand about my prophetic words.

>>800145
HAHAHAHAH

>>801785
underrated post

>>799996
>>799926
>>800063
>>800069
>>800122
So can someone please tell me why this wouldn't work,

The dollar to euro exchange rate is
1 to .89
The euro to Turkish lira is 3
But the dollar to turkish lira is 2.68

Why cant I exchange my dollars to euros then to turkish liras for infinite cash?

>>801935
>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

>>801939
What ?

The only thing to do in this situation is to dollar Cost Average into European Index Funds as aggressively as you can. I'd keep any money you've already invested out for about the next 2 months though.

>>801941
Are you seriously asking? Please try to think again.

>>801941

Do your math lol,

1 dollar = .89 euro
.89 euro = 3*0,89 lira = 2.67 lira
2.67 lira < 2.68 lira
=> No use in doing that

>>801785
>>801787
>>801792

my dear greek poster, why don't you go back to /pol/? you have no /biz/ness anyway

>>799099
>because they are civilised
How about you skidaddle back to /pol/