/biz/ - Business & Finance

market is at an all time high most years

>>762698
>Market never reaches new all time highs
>Inflation doesn't exist
>productivity and GDP don't increase
>nothing new is ever made

>>762698
Hello sluthate

>>762717
Let's visit Gandy

>>762698

Sold entire 300k portfolio in February at Dow 18,000, went to cash.

Dow is up 232 since then. Have missed out on 1.3% gains on average for indexes.

>iamokwiththis.gif

There is so much more downside potential than upside potential in the market right now.

By my estimate the market over the last couple months could have gone up 2% or down 15% and all of wall street would have said they were expecting a correction. I'll happily give up 3k in gains to avoid 45k in loss potential.

Frankly, I fully expect a downturn in the next month or two, and I may not be interested in returning my cash until I see positive GDP numbers come back.

Markets are at or near all-time highs on 20% of all trading days, historically.
>selling your entire portfolio once a week>>762727

>Sold entire 300k portfolio in February at Dow 18,000, went to cash.
Popular strategy. Lots of people did it in 2010, 2012, 2013 and 2014. Sucks for them.

>>762727
>By my estimate the market over the last couple months could have gone up 2% or down 15% and all of wall street would have said they were expecting a correction. I'll happily give up 3k in gains to avoid 45k in loss potential.
OH MY FUCKING GOD

>>762734
>>762737

ok captain hindsight, let's see your gains.

>sold at 18,000

>>762734
>Popular strategy. Lots of people did it in 2010, I 2012, 2013 and 2014. Sucks for them.

I didn't realize the Dow was trading at 18,000 in 2010, 2012, 2013, and 2014....

Further the markets weren't at average P/E of 18.5 in any of those years either.

Even though the market had increased quite a bit in each year and/or previous year, there was lots of value still in terms of P/E.

Things are different now.

>>762737

While I might have missed 3k in gains, at certain times over the last 2 months I would have been down as much as 4 or 5k.

The way I look at it, the market is still pretty flat for the year.

I SOLD... it will be funny when AAPL goes to 98.

>>762727

If you have a 300k portfolio and you're simply exiting the market on the expectation of a downturn, you're not that very bright when it comes to investing. Expectually if you're only expecting to make a 1.3% return.

People are to focused on IPOs, technology, and biotech. Simply stay away from those and you're golden. Invest in companies that will survive a downturn, usually the ones that were not effected in 08 will do fine. You can also go for companies that were effected by 08 negatively, but are changing their ways as well.

When people are being greedy, be fearful and when people are being fearful you need to be greedy.

>>762888
Dunno if you noticed but people are being greedy right now. The market is going to tumble within the next year and people are still thinking it's going to go up. Now is the time to get out.

>>762739
>peeeeeeee/eeeeeeeee sooooooo scaaaaaaaary

>>762738
>ok captain hindsight, let's see your gains.
If you only knew.

>>762897
>Dunno if you noticed but people are being greedy right now
Says who? I'm not seeing ANY of the behaviors that pre-dated either the 2008 or 2000 crashes. Sounds like you pulled this out of your ass.

>>762897

>Invest in companies that will survive a downturn, usually the ones that were not effected in 08 will do fine. You can also go for companies that were effected by 08 negatively, but are changing their ways as well.

>>762888
>When people are being greedy, be fearful and when people are being fearful you need to be greedy.
Ok Confucius how about just telling him to buy low sell high.

>>762903

He says he has a best chance of making 1.4%, if I told him that he would lose it all.

His dumbass would low high BABA.

>not investing in ₪

>>762900
Shiller pe is at 27.5 the market has always crashed with in a year of this point. That said I am still invested in the market and have no idea if or when the crash well happen. Prior who art doubts on long term gains should not pull out.
When u pull out you have additional taxes to pay reducing your gains and you risk missing out on more gains, inflation and reinvestment of dividends.

>>762910
Well shit auto correct fuck me there, people focused on long term growth should stay invested.

>>762698
ITT: people timing the market with their < 10k portfolios. Your money is safer in a savings account not because it's insulated from a market crash there but because you're an idiot and shouldn't be investing in the market.

>>762727
You, my nigger friend, and anyone that actually believes in market timing, would do well to read this:
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/worlds-worst-market-timer/

>>762739
wuhuu

when people say buy low sell high, I'm not sure if they're joking or not.

>>762727

>tfw I have about half what you do
>tfw I thought the exact same thing in August 2012 and pulled out all my money
>tfw I tell my friends I'll have the last laugh and there gains are transitory
>tfw I'm dying inside

>>762698
what's the market symbol for "top kek"?

>>763778
TSLA

>>763778
https://www.google.com/finance?q=CVE%3AKEK